Friday, December 03, 2004

The NM Hispanic Vote: The Numbers For Bush Come Down, But The Threat To The D's Remains, Analysis And Insight Right Here 

There is no question more crucial in the aftermath of the NM Prez race than what percentage of the Hispanic vote went for Bush. Initial exit polls trumpet the Prez's performance at 44% of this vital group, long part of the D power base. But a second look at the the numbers has the experts second guessing. They're now saying Bush's performance among Hispanics was about 40%. That's still up a bunch from 2000, when he received about 35% of the NM Hispanic ballots in his race against Al Gore. NM political junkies like the ABQ Trib's Shea Andersen, pollsters Brian Sanderoff and Harry Pavlides (and your blogger) have been skeptical of that 44% number from the start. They are more sanguine about the 40%. They say Protestant Hispanics went heavy for Bush and many Catholic Hispanics simply stayed home after Kerry was pasted for his "liberal" social views.


While the D's can emit a sigh of relief that Bush's number has come down, they still have to be worried that 40% could be the new benchmark for an R Prez candidate here. If it is, New Mexico would be recast as a "lean Republican" state.

The backbiting over the Kerry loss continues here unabated, albeit quietly and behind the scenes. Several emailers are calling for a shake-up at the top of Big Bill's Moving America Forward organization, the political action committee charged with inspiring the Hispanic vote. "Let the heads roll," cried one scribe. That may be tough talk, but probably necessary if the D's are not to be blindsided again with the very voters who are responsible for keeping them in power across our Enchanted Land.


That flag photo accompanying today's lead piece may not look familiar, but it was in our state's early days. From 1912 to 1925 it was the official state flag. Since then the easily recognizable Zia symbol flag has flown proudly.

Have a great weekend and, as always, thanks for tuning in. I look forward to seeing you next week.

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