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Thursday, October 19, 2006

What's Wrong With Patsy? Heather Gives Her Top Three; Plus; Fear Issue Comes Into Campaign, And: More From The Busy Trail 

Patricia Madrid has been a moving target for Heather Wilson. Charges that the Dem attorney general tolerated corruption, was a bad district court judge and failed to fully prosecute an Internet pedophile have all failed to put the race away for Heather. Now in the final critical days Wilson is out with a new list of top reasons to vote against the tenacious Madrid; a list that is aimed squarely at conservative Democrats who are not coming home to Heather in the ABQ congressional district. Here is Heather's latest list as outlined by her on KKOB-AM Radio Wednesday afternoon

"1. Madrid will raise your taxes. 2. I am not a believer in big government. 3. National security. How do we protect this country?"

Well, not exactly something David Letterman would use in his famous top ten lists, but good blog material. Heather somehow needs to more negatively define Madrid in the closing days. That was even more evident Wednesday. She gave her top three list following a rambling discussion on how she weighed the controversial pre-Iraq war intelligence. And that leads us to the top three reasons Madrid has for tossing Wilson out.

1. The Iraq War 2. The Iraq War 3. The Iraq War.

ARE YOU SCARED YET?

Fear. Personal security. It has been the sharpest arrow in the quiver of the R's and they're hoping it will hit the target again for Heather Wilson Her new TV ad features an alarmist announcer warning that "liberal Patricia Madrid" would waste valuable time by applying for a court order before allowing the interception of an international call placed by a possible terrorist. "Wrong on Security. Wrong for America" concludes the voice of doom announcer. See it here.

Dems point out that the Heather ad is part of a cookie-cutter campaign by the R's; that the same spot is being used in key races where R's are in jeopardy. Here it is in another race, courtesy of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

ALL-IMPORTANT ABSENTEES

The GOP is picking up steam in the all-important absentee battle, but still lags. Here in Bernalillo county the numbers through Wednesday look like this: Total absentee ballots sent out----22,975. Sent to Dems--11,759 (51%). Sent to R's--9,155 (40%). Sent to Independents--2,061 (9%).

In our first blog report, the Dems accounted for about 9,000 of the first 13,000 absentee requests, reflecting their summer vote push. The clerk is now sending out absentee ballots to persons who have previously used that method and the R's are catching up. Democrats comprise 45% of the county's registered voters. R's are 35% and Independents are 17%. The Indy's lag in the absentee requests, in part, because the political parties concentrate on getting their own to request ballots. The inital big absentee request gap between D's and R's had the Dems gleeful. Now it is not nearly as much, but they are still happy to hold the lead. There are 350,000 registered voters in the state's largest county. A projected turnout of 50% would mean 175,000 voters.

MURPHY'S LAW?


A possible candidate for the chairmanship of the NM GOP has been given a feather in his cap. Roswell oilman Mark Murphy has been named by the President to the National Air & Space Museum Board. Murphy's appointment was touted by
NM Senator Domenici who could play a key role in any leadership struggle that develops in the GOP following the Nov. 7 election.

Murphy, an aviation buff and private pilot, has not said he will seek to replace Allen Weh who will leave the party's top job when his term expires next April, but he has said he is considering it and has signaled that he wants a change in course for the party which he sees as drifting from the mainstream. Domenici is up for re-election in 2008 and says he plans to run. If he sticks to that decision, he may want to play a more active role in who runs the show.

WORKING THE BALLOTS

Meanwhile, over at state GOP headquarters, insiders report that State Rep. Justine Fox-Young is heading up the party's "ballot security" program. Fox-Young is a former legal secretary to lawyer-lobbyist Mickey Barnett, one of the leaders of the breakaway faction of the GOP who ousted Ramsay Gorham as party chair and who also ran candidates against fellow R's in the 2004 primary cycle. Fox-Young is seeking a second term to her ABQ Mid-Heights district and is heavily favored.

McCULLOCH TV

Staying with the R's, GOP U.S. senate candidate Allen McCulloch has a small TV buy in the works. You can see the spot here.

BACA VS. LYONS
Lyons & Lionsgate
The latest on that tight race for land commissioner. Dem Jim Baca is getting a boost from the Conservation Voters of NM which has purchased this radio jingle on his behalf. (And you think your singing voice is out of tune!) R Pat Lyons was working the ABQ Metro area this week helping smooth a $25,000 charitable donation to Mountain View Elementary from the film studio, Lionsgate entertainment, which is expanding its business to NM.

Baca says he will come with a $100,000 TV buy. Lyons has already mailed two direct mail hit pieces on Baca. Stay tuned for more.

THE BOTTOM LINES

A couple of emailers wanted updated results on whether a controversial flier by R Treasurer candidate Demesia Padilla was objectionable. Here are the latest results from the unscientific ABQ Journal online poll and one that can easily be manipulated. Most respondents are now saying they were not offended, a switch from the first results. The flier, featuring a caricature of African-American Dem Treasurer candidate James B. Lewis was sent out by Padilla's campaign. (Not by the state GOP) Political pros I queried don't see it doing Demesia any good. We shall see Election Night.

Thanks for tuning in. Drop me an email with your latest political news from the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2006
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