Thursday, September 18, 2008
Welcome Back, Barack; We've Got Free Chile And Good Polls For You, Plus: The Southern Front: Teague Radio Hits Tinsley, And: Candidates Spanked
OBAMA SPOKE FOR 35 MINUTES IN ESPANOLA TODAY
Welcome back, Barack. Besides free chile and a Big Bill bear hug, we have some new polls for you that show you getting the job done. Survey USA has it Obama 52% to McCain's 44%. The ARG survey also gives the Illinois Senator a comfortable led 51 to 44%. Survey USA contrasts sharply with a Rasmussen poll when ti comes to Hispanic support for Obama. He gets 69%, well above the 47% Rasmussen had him at. The one caveat for these automatic polls is the very low rate of undecided. Only 1% undecided in SurveyUSA? They must be pushing hard to get an answer from everyone.
No matter the polls, Obama's lunchtime trip today to Espanola in the Spanish North is worth his time.
"People in the north like to see their presidential candidates in person. They saw the Clintons and the Kennedys and they want to see him," said former State Senator Roman Maes of Santa Fe.
Kerry in '04 thought a visit and a train ride through the area was enough, but it wasn't. Obama's campaign says he will be back. We don't doubt it. With 35 field offices and constant TV, he is a regular presence here. Whether he wins is another question, but today he has to like his chances.
Obama arrived in ABQ around 10:30 p.m. Wednesday. Here is a scene-setter from the Journal North's Raam Wong. We'll post an update on the visit this afternoon.
The latest Survey USA shows the uphill climb Republican Steve Pearce has in beating Dem Tom Udall for the US Senate seat. It shows Pearce 15 points back--56% to 41%, not the seven points back Rasmussen had him at. Pearce and McCain seemed to benefit from a post-Palin surge. No more. Pearce needs a big break to beat Udall, and a smaller break to make the race close. Udall is taking no chances, responding to Pearce's negative TV when he needs to, working the stump and generally staying out of trouble. The economic backdrop of recent days is a big break for Tom. Kind of like the one Steve needs. If you average the two recent Senate polls Udall is ahead by 11. Sounds about right.
THE SOUTHERN FRONT
Dem Harry Teague is bringing back the carpetbagger issue in the southern NM congressional race. In a new radio ad, the Hobbs oil man calls Republican Ed Tinsley "that guy who lives in Santa Fe."
Tinsley owns a second home in the tony Las Campanas subdivision near Santa Fe, but says he spends most of his time at his Lincoln County Ranch. His campaign says of Teague's attack: "Ed Tinsley offers a positive choice for Southern New Mexico. The focus on the next Congress will be reforming our nation’s financial system, and partisan attacks aren’t going to get the job done.”
Teague, who has been running TV ads since August, has not taken his attack to TV, but this is a lean Republican district and the hit could jump from the radio speakers to the TV screens faster than a pack of dogs chasing a three-legged cat.
Tinsley was a slowpoke getting his first TV ad up. None of the campaigns is awash in cash. But he finally debuted Tuesday with a bio spot paid for by his campaign and the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee. By sharing the cost with Tinsley, the committee gets the low federally-mandated TV rates. If it buys time on its own, it has to pay full freight. Here's the Tinsley ad airing in the ABQ and El Paso markets:
El Paso TV services Dona Ana County, the most populous one in Southern NM and where Tinsley needs to tie or lose narrowly to Dem Teague.
His new ad is well-produced. He is a natural narrator with a broadcaster's flair. The state Dem Party did not like the ad. They say rather than starting out in a single sandwich shop as Tinsley implies, he actually began his career in Austin, TX as a corporate lawyer in 1977.
SPANKING THE CANDIDATES
We spanked ABQ Dem congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich for pulling out of a KRQE-TV prime time debate. Now it's time for Republican hopeful Darren White to get spanked for a similar offense. From the Heinrich camp Wednesday:
After confirming a forum with Heinrich at yesterday's Every Child Matters forum, Darren White didn't even show up. The forum featured questions posed by children, about issues important to New Mexico's children. What is Darren White afraid of?
What is Darren afraid of? Apparently the same thing Martin fears. Both candidates are right for slapping one another over avoiding appearances. And both are wrong for avoiding them. Come on fellas, this is the people's House you're running for. Remember? That's the one closest to the people.
THEY GOT A BITE
Meantime, the free media on the ABQ congressional race has been as scarce as an enchilada without cheese. The GOP and White have been accusing the former city councilor of doing lobbying work without registering as a lobbyist. Heinrich says it was advocacy work. It was enough to finally get a news article about the race. Not good for Martin who needs to be putting Darren on the defensive.
THE BOTTOM LINES
Sometimes our mistakes around here are funnier than a sitcom. At least our readers seem to think so. When we misspelled the word 'rogue" as "rouge," Santa Fe's Lorene Mills was on the case:
We get a whole week of "lipstick on a pig" and now we must watch out for "rouge groups!" What's next, the Mascara Mafia? I'm hoping you meant "rogue groups," but since Sarah Palin entered the race, I can't be sure.
Well, I can assure you, Lorene, I am red-faced over this error, but not because of any "rouge."
The 2007 Big Bill fund-raiser we mentioned yesterday and at which the Guv said he raised $2 million, was for his prez campaign, not his re-elect for Guv. He was re-elected in 2006.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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