Sunday, November 02, 2008
Journal Poll Indicates Dem Sweep; Heinrich by 4; Teague By 4; Obama by 8; Udall Over Pearce By Double Digits
Wouldn't you know it. The only numbers in the final ABQ Journal poll that held much interest were those in the ABQ congressional race featuring Dem Martin Heinrich and R Darren White, but when the Journal posted the poll this morning about 12:30 a.m. they informed us that Heinrich was four points ahead, but failed to release the numbers! Well, if you have a print edition handy by the time you read this they will be in there and we'll update later today. But we didn't want to wake up pollster Brian Sanderoff. (Is the Journal trying to get people to buy the print edition?).
UPDATE: The dead tree version of the Journal has a graph that says it's Heinrich 47% to White's 43%. 10% are undecided. The graph is not on the Web.
In any event, pollster Sanderoff points out that Independent voters are positioning Heinrich for the win, although the poll's margin of error is five percent which means White is still alive by that standard. However, it is Sanderoff's last poll and it will be judged by who he has placed on top. In 2006, Patsy Madrid was placed above Heather Wilson in the final Journal survey, but Wilson won, one of the rare times the Journal survey did not have the winner on top in its last poll.
That does not appear likely to happen this year. A good deal of the undecided are Independents and unless they go against the grain, Heinrich should get a good share of them. In this Oct. 28 to Oct. 30 survey, Heinrich seems positioned where he has for the past several weeks--a victory of at least 3,000 votes.
The Harry Teague-Ed Tinsley race for the southern congressional seat has Hobbs oilman Teague beating Republican rancher Tinsley 45% to 41%. As we've written here over the months, Teague is performing well for a Democrat on the Republican Eastside. This race is Teague's to lose.
Up North, Ben Ray Lujan is polling 51% to R Dan East's 23% and Independent Carol Miller's 12%. The only question left is whether Lujan can get to 60% which would give him added muscle when he heads to D.C. in January.
Obama leads McCain 51% to 43%. That's above the magic number and Obama may be able to grow it a couple of points Election Night. But McCain is coming into Roswell Election Eve to try to push Obama back below 50%. But Obama is polling a big 58% in Bernalillo County, the state's largest. If he comes anywhere close to that number Tuesday night, the race will be over. McCain will not be able to make up those votes in rural areas.
Like the northern congressional race, in the U.S. Senate battle its just a question of what Tom Udall's winning margin will be over Republican Steve Pearce. Sanderoff has it 53% to 39%. If Steve holds Tom to a single digit win, it will be a moral victory.
The Journal poll confirms the Bernalillo County survey conducted for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan by Positive Contacts Consulting Thursday night which showed Heinrich leading White 53% to 44% and Udall and Obama holding large leads.
The SurveyUSA was released Saturday. Scroll down for our blog on that. And here's a KOB-TV report we interviewed for on that poll.
One other note. The Republican oriented Journal editorial pages dealt a final blow to Pearce by endorsing Dem Udall for the Senate seat.
(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author