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Tuesday, July 07, 2009Pearce Pulls The Trigger; Can He Hit The Teague Target? Plus: Romero Shakes Up Staff As Mayoral Clock Ticks, And: Waiting On Political Nonprofits Steve Pearce pulled an itchy campaign trigger Monday, apparently egged on by national R's to take on Southern NM Dem Congressman Harry Teague in the aftermath of Teague's vote for a climate control bill that may or may not be a major issue when the campaign begins in earnest over a year from now. (Our July 2 analysis of that vote is here.)We say itchy finger because Pearce first told Roll Call he would make a decision on his political future by June 30. He then revised that for the Politico, saying D-Day would fall from July 20 to July 27. He ended up issuing a news release on Monday, amid one of the the lowest rated news consuming weeks of the year--the July Fourth holiday. But he did end the uncertainty over a possible 2010 race for Governor and gave the R's a first-tier candidate to take on Teague who scored a handsome victory over Republican Ed Tinsley in 2008, returning the seat to the Dems for the first time since 1980. (Roll Call coverage with former New Mexican Josh Kurtz is Pearce's presence on the GOP ticket could help the R's in other races in the south such as the aforementioned Guv run as well as lower tier contests for posts such as Land Commissioner. If Pearce does anything well, it is galvanizing the conservative southern GOP base. That should help get R's to the polls, but taking out Teague will take a 15 round heavyweight brawl in which organization and money will rule the day. Right now, that advantage is firmly in Teague's corner. Obama put in place an organization Teague can tap and money will be no problem for Teague who will get national Dem support and also has his own oil fortune to tap. Teague has already shown he is not shy with a pen, writing out big checks for his '08 campaign. Pearce will be competing for dollars with other out-of-power R's. To raise the dough, he will need credible polling that gives him a shot, and he may have to do something that he has always resisted--tap his own oil fortune just like his Lea County neighbor Harry Teague. THE ROMERO DILEMMA  While the congressional races are a light year away, there is no time to idle for those seeking to become mayor of ABQ. The election is October 6. The sense of urgency for those hoping to take out three term Democrat Mayor Martin Chavez was driven home Monday as Democrat Richard Romero moved to shake things up by bringing in a new campaign manager. He apparently hopes a new face can help solve the political puzzle that has blocked him from gaining significant traction.Gone from the campaign is manager Neri Holguin. The rumor mill had her heading for the exits as soon as Romero lost the endorsement of AFSCME--the union that represents 3,500 city workers and who for the first time endorsed Chavez. Some of the Alligators saw it as a death blow to the Romero effort and they blamed...who else?...the campaign manager. Holguin had not played at this level before. She managed successful legislative campaigns, but not a citywide or statewide contest. She brought valuable connections with Obama progressives, but Romero, a former Republican who once became state Senate leader by forming a coalition with Republicans, has had trouble generating enthusiasm among them. His new choice for 'lead strategist" is Murray Fishel, an Ohio-based consultant, who has close ties to ABQ Dem State Rep. Mimi Stewart who headed up the state Dem legislative campaign effort in 2008. One of our insiders said Fischel has for a number of years helped train Dem legislative candidates and said he has considerable experience with direct mail. Fischel is in his 60's and was described by a consultant who knows him as a "McGovern liberal." (For those of a certain age, McGovern ran for President in '72.) Not to be mistaken with McGovern is Tim McGivern, the former editor of the alternative Weekly Alibi who has now joined the Romero campaign to handle communications. Whoever Romero has on board faces face a daunting challenge--generating passion for a political change at City Hall. ELI'S COMING...OR NOT? The ABQ political community continues to buzz over whether Eli Lee, ringmaster of the political nonprofits, will somehow--despite new city campaign finance laws--find a way to get progressive nonprofit money into this race for mayor to help Romero. Holguin has worked with Lee who had a consulting firm heavily involved in several previous ABQ election cycles. Lee and the federally tax-exempt nonprofits have come under the microscope for not disclosing their campaign contributions or contributors in '08 legislative races. Romero has advocated public financing and ethics reform. He may be on the hot seat if groups come with unreported money and he looks the other way. Lee has a reputation as a talented consultant who had no troubles with the press and public when he was running campaigns where all business was conducted in the open. But he and his supporters have gone to war with the ABQ Journal and some bloggers over the matter of nonprofit disclosure. It's a battle that could heat up along with the summer temperatures. THE BOTTOM LINES Cody Unser  Off the political beat, we chatted with Cody Unser recently who was excited about the New Mexico premiere of the documentary "CODY, The First Step." It was produced in association with the Cody Unser First Step Foundation. The film, narrated by actress Glen Close, premiers Wednesday at 5 p.m. at ABQ's downtown Kimo Theater. Tickets are $10. Cody is one resilient young woman who has inspired a lot of people. She might even make a good politician. On second thought, let's not corrupt our youth....E-mail it in--news, comments and political gossip. We're here to serve. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, July 06, 2009The Quiet Campaign: Daniels Still Inching Toward ABQ GOP Congress Run; Would Face Barela, Plus: Some Taco Saving, And: Jeff's Press
Kevin Daniels
 GOP businessman Kevin Daniels continues to take quiet steps toward a run for the ABQ congressional seat, despite the wish of some R's at the top of the food chain that attorney Jon Barela go unopposed for the nomination. But Daniels isn't hearing them. A political advisor to the owner of a chain of funeral homes says Daniels will be in Washington this week introducing himself to the National Republican Congressional Committee and signaling his intent to make a run--Barela or no Barela. Will the NRCC heavies try to talk Daniels down?Daniels, 51, is a political newcomer, but has business ties that could help him raise money for a run, not to mention his personal wealth. Since we first mentioned the possible Daniels candidacy on April 21, Barela has announced the formation of an exploratory committee. No other candidates have signaled a run. The only media outlets to mention the Daniels movement so far are this blog and the national Politico. That may soon change. If Daniels takes the dive, our insider says he won't form an exploratory committee, he will go all in. TACO SAVING  Attention Congressman Heinrich: You are not alone in your fight to save the "Flying Tacos" stationed at ABQ's Kirtland Air Force Base. GOP Guv candidate and retired Marine Corp Colonel Allen Weh says even though this is a federal issue, he is ready to report for duty:If you know how the Department of Defense works, and have relationships in defense circles you can make a huge impact if you want to. I see this as a wonderful opportunity to do something for NM nobody else can do. With all the other stuff that dominates a governor's election (education, corruption, etc.) this will likely never be something that gets much attention, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t important, and it's something we can still get done while doing the high profile stuff. Well said, Allen. But you're timing may be a little off. If you win the Guv's chair you would take office on January 1, 2011. The fate of the fighter wing at KAFB will be decided in the next six months. Maybe Big Bill can "deputize" Weh? Well, he would probably have to get approval for that from the US Attorney. VACATION PALS? Speaking of Big Bill, he's been on Cape Cod in Massachusetts for an annual holiday respite. Maybe he wants to stay a while longer and greet a special guest: President Barack Obama and his family plan to vacation next month on Martha's Vineyard, Democratic sources said. The trip has long been rumored on the island, where federal agents were reported to be checking out property last spring. The plan puts the Obamas in one of America's most diverse resort areas. Next month? Seems the Guv's timing is off just a bit, but it gets that way during these second terms, doesn't it? TOM FOR PRESS?  If NM Senator Jeff Bingaman needs some back-up in his press office we have the perfect guy for him---his fellow NM Dem US Senator Tom Udall. Take a look:Senator Udall applauded the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, under the extraordinary and diligent leadership of Chairman Jeff Bingaman, for concluding weeks of legislative mark-up and producing comprehensive energy legislation..Sen. Bingaman is a great asset to the State of New Mexico and the U.S. Senate... After that, Jeff definitely owes Tom a free lunch at the Senate Dining Room. LUNCH MONEY If Jeff does decide to treat Tom to lunch, maybe he can pay for it out of his campaign account. He has over $512,000 in it, but is not up for re-election until 2012. Republicans hoping this is his last term may need a new and improved wishing well. E-mail your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Friday, July 03, 2009Happy Birthday, America! We're breaking with you for the holiday and will be back next week to kick off coverage of the second half of 2009. What was the big story of the first half of the year? It had to be the accelerated investigations into state pay to play allegations that now hang over the 2010 election like the sword of Damocles. The outcome of the federal grand jury investigations will color much of the politics of Part Two of 2009.Another big story we can anticipate is the state's economic outlook and whether there will be a special legislative session to keep up with falling tax collections. Can the state avoid a special by dipping into reserves and then tackling the problem when lawmakers hold a regular session in January? More important, can the state avoid job layoffs? Add in a race for ABQ mayor and the dropping in and dropping out of candidates for statewide office as the positioning continues for 2010 and you have the recipe for a fascinating mix of political news. But in New Mexico when is politics not the most enjoyable of spectator sports? From Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan reporting. Happy Birthday, America! E-mail your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Thursday, July 02, 2009GOP Calls For Teague Political Funeral Over Energy Vote, But Harry Still Breathes Deeply; The Inside Story On Where He Stands, Plus: On The Econ Beat The political death of southern NM Congressman Harry Teague is greatly exaggerated. Let's explain. Within hours of Teague voting for the energy and climate change bill, Republicans began touting the vote as a deal-breaker with his mostly conservative district. They asserted the measure, which passed the House by a narrow 219-212 vote, would hurt the oil and gas industry and cause utility bills to go up, all making Teague hyper-vulnerable to a Republican challenge now considered likely to come from former Congressman Steve Pearce. But there was a hitch on the way to Harry's political funeral. True, the bill is not causing small town parades in "Little Texas" in the southeast where the oil and gas industry holds sway. Also, 44 Democrats, perhaps fearful of the political consequences, voted with the Republicans. But Teague did offer amendments to soften the blow the measure had on the state's independent oil and gas producers and refineries. And don't forget. Teague is himself an oilman--a successful one. It's hard to see Teague's vote causing massive hemorrhaging within the industry ranks he calls his own. Even if Teague's energy vote does hurt him some with voters in the SE portion of the district, there is still a major problem with the GOP Teague death wish. It's called Dona Ana County.DOTING ON DONA ANA  For the most part Dona Ana, a Democratic county with a not insignificant environmental community, is going to be pleased that Teague voted for the bill. By the way, Teague crushed his Republican foe in this key county in 2008 by a stunning 15,000 votes. My experts say it is nearly impossible for a Republican to take back the southern seat without at least running close to Teague in Doan Ana--home to the city of Las Cruces and the district's most populated county. In that regard, the R's have a mountain to climb. And don't forget that the GOP also needs a huge margin in Harry's home county of Lea. Do they think an incumbent US Congressman is not going to get at least 40 percent of the vote there, and probably more? Where do they make up the votes they don't get in Lea and especially Dona Ana? They don't. They must crack those areas, and the energy bill vote--unless utility bills skyrocket--doesn't get it done in Dona Ana.R's are pushing hard, however, to get traction on what they see as the first majro vote that gives them an opening in the district. They put up this radio ad hitting Teague. Teague has obviously done his political homework. He offered those amendments, hoping to stop any bleeding in the SE, but voted for the bill to hold his general election base in Dona Ana and also to not incite a possible liberal Dem primary opponent. But there is a chance the House bill will die in the Senate and there will be no final law. The R's would then be talking about a vote that really didn't matter. Not that the R's don't have a chance to re-take the seat, but it's not going to be as easy as they might wish. So call off the funeral. Teague breathes. ON THE ECON BEAT  We wanted to find out if that 7 percent unemployment rate for the ABQ metro for the month of May was some kind of record. It seems so. From the state Dept. of Workforce Solutions:The data we have in house only dates back to 1990...The Albuquerque MSA’s previous high was 6.8 percent in June 1993. Add in folks working only part-time and you have a lot of job hunters out there. The statewide official jobless rate is 6.5 percent, but probably considerably higher say economic experts. The pain is spreading to previously exempt areas--like Carlsbad. The SE NM city lost a call center this week that employed 100. Finding replacement jobs is the challenge. The center had been in the city for nearly 10 years. E-mail your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, July 01, 2009Second Banana: Updated Dem Light Guv List; New GOP #2 Contender Eyes Run, And: State's Current Second Fiddle Feels Some Summer Heat It was famously said by Vice-President John Nance Garner that his office was "not worth a bucket of warm spit." The same might be said for New Mexico's #2 position, but never have so many wanted so little. Here, for your viewing pleasure, is the latest list of prospective and announced Democratic 2010 Lieutenant Governor candidates as updated by our Senior Alligators:ABQ State Senator Linda Lopez; Santa Fe County Sheriff Greg Solano; Mid-Region Council of Governments executive Lawrence Rael; NM Democratic Party chairman Brian Colon; State Auditor Hector Balderas; former Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron; State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino; ABQ State Senator Tim Eichenberg; Espanola Mayor Joseph Maestas and State Senator Pete Campos. If there was ever a recipe for a political free for all, this race for lieutenant governor is it. Even the Alligators can't handicap this race. But let's see how many of these prospective candidates are left standing come October when it will be time to get serious and gather petition signatures. THE CLAYTON CANDIDATE? Brian Moore  The list of prospective #2's is not nearly as long on the Republican side of the aisle, but there is interest. Today we can tell you that former Clayton area State Rep. Brian Moore is looking at starting up a campaign, and doing it as soon as mid-July. Moore, owner of the Clayton Ranch Market, says education and ethics are two of the obvious issues for the 2010 cycle. He is a native of southern Colorado (Trinidad) who came to the state in the mid-90's. He voluntarily retired from the Legislature where he sat on the appropriations committee and was respected on both sides of the aisle for his financial acumen. Moore would conceivably balance a Republican Guv ticket with an ABQ candidate at the top. Santa Fe's J.R. Damron is also eyeing a Light Guv run.CURRENT NUMBER TWO She may have donated to an affordable housing nonprofit group the $5,000 she collected for her Guv run from characters involved in the housing authority scandal, but Lt. Gov Diane Denish is not being left off the hook by the Republicans--and one e-mailer identifying himself most appropriately as "Al. E. Gator" who says: Denish's choice of the United South Broadway Corporation (USBC) for the Housing Authority contributions still smacks of political gain from tainted sources. After all, USBC is a politically connected non-profit. It's executive director, Diana Dorn-Jones, has even run for elected office and is former Chief Operating Officer for Mayor Chavez. Is Dorn-Jones staying out of the 2010 cycle perhaps, or should we now expect her to put her political muscle behind Denish? There were scores of worthy non-profits Denish could have given the tainted money to, non-profits without the serious political undertones... Dorn-Jones ran for the ABQ City Council in 2005 and was defeated by Ike Benton who is seeking re-election this year. Her candidacy imploded when she did not correctly answer the Journal questionnaire about whether she had ever been involved in a personal or business bankruptcy. AND MORE PUSH BACK  Denish was also pushing back this week against all the politicians forming "exploratory committees" to weigh a possible Guv run, saying with a bit of bravado:I, however, do not need to explore the idea of running for Governor; I am running and want to be the next Governor of New Mexico. Now there is push back to Di's push back. And why wouldn't there be as this Guv race draws closer and closer? From Santa Fe and Democrat Jim Terr comes the retort: "I’m very aware that you’re running for Governor because I keep reading about the incessant fundraisers. Do you suppose you’ve got enough money in the bank, enough of a lead in fundraising, to consider how rotten is this system of constant fundraising? I don’t plan to vote for any candidate who doesn’t stop and take a stand for public campaign financing. I would like to see you have a little time for study, contemplation, governing, and looking out for my interests--which you must know is inhibited when you have to spend all your time fundraising. That's some good ol' fashioned summer heat there. But Denish supporters can be consoled that she wouldn't be getting any if she wasn't leading the race. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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