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Friday, September 04, 2009Berry Hits with First Mayor TV; Pops Cable Buy Before Holiday, Plus: Even More Fouratt Fallout As Big Bill's Future Is Weighed, And: Weh's Run
We blogged that we should not expect any mayoral TV until after Labor Day. Well, amend that to any over-the-air mayoral TV. GOP contender Richard "RJ" Berry hit with the first spot of the 2009 mayoral derby today (Friday) but will start out on less expensive cable TV before going to over-the-air stations after Labor Day.
The spot takes some mild hits on Dem Mayor Chavez, saying after 12 years in the office it's "time to turn the page" on the incumbent. The spot crams in a lot. It calls Berry "impeccably honest." It labels him "tough on crime," saying he will end the "sanctuary city" policy. And Berry comes on camera to say he "is a common sense guy" and that he won't spend "$300 million on a trolley car." Chavez has talked about building a modern street car system, dubbed a "trolley" by his foes, but no money has been approved for such a project. The mayor also says ABQ is not a sanctuary city. Overall, the Berry spot is what you would expect in a low-budget race (public spending capped at $328,000). His 30 second introductory ad builds him up while taking his chief rival down a notch. Berry may step up criticism in the final weeks, but in his first burst from the gate he needed to introduce himself without turning off the electorate. The low-key negative, mixed with the positive family man and businessman image, seems to accomplish that. Chavez is seen as having a healthy lead and a solid bet to take first place. However, if Berry and Dem Richard Romero hold him below 40 percent, there would be a run-off election between the top two contenders. The new ad also features Berry's wife, Maria Medina. The couple operate Cumbre Construction. Berry is a state representative whose far NE Heights district is heavily Anglo and Republican. The presence of his wife in the spot could be seen as an effort to broaden his appeal to Hispanics. While Berry was coming with his first TV, Chavez was getting the endorsement of the Fraternal Order of Police, a key one in a race where crime is always a major issue. Earlier, the mayor was awarded the endorsement of the ABQ Police Officers Association. FOURATT FALLOUT (CONT.)  Big Bill seems to be getting the better of it in the national press in his battle with NM US Attorney Greg Fouratt. That battle has come in the aftermath of Fouratt's controversial letter that said Big Bill and his top aides will not be indicted in the CDR pay-to-play probe. Fouratt, a Republican, stepped in it when he accused Richardson in his letter to defense attorneys of "corrupting the procurement process" even though he did not have the goods for indictments.The hometown paper gave Fouratt an apologia, saying the rules covering US attorneys give Fouratt the right to author such a letter, but former prominent US attorneys--who have lived and worked under the guidelines of that handbook--are pounding Fouratt mercilessly for the content of the letter. The latest hits came in a front page piece from the Politico, the well-read national Web site. Mike McKay, who served as U.S. attorney for the Western District of Washington state under President George H.W. Bush from 1989 to 1993, called Fouratt’s letter “virtually unprecedented. It reflects extremely poor judgment.” “The very existence of federal criminal investigations is not supposed to be disclosed,” he said, citing the potential damage to the subjects’ reputations. “And certainly for the same reasons, you don’t disclose closed investigations,” he said. And a veteran defense lawyer with a national reputation told the Politico: Fouratt thought he had a case, he should have filed charges, but if he didn’t, he should have let the investigation end without comment, said Stan Brand, a top Washington defense attorney. “Put up or shut up,” said Brand, who called the letter “a cheap shot.” Earlier former GOP US Attorney Joseph diGenova called Fouratt's letter "stupid" and said he ought to be fired. ANALYSIS, PLEASE  The more Fouratt is taken out and shot, the better for Richardson who needs closure on this probe to rehabilitate his national political career. Pundits quoted in the Politico seem to think Bill is most likely to get a gig with the Obama administration after he finishes his Guv term here at the end of 2010. But local observers seem more inclined to believe that Richardson's chances of getting out of here sooner have improved.Syndicated columnist Jay Miller opines that Richardson has Santa Fe "in his rear view mirror" and that the speculation in the capital is that Bill could be gone within five weeks. The guessing game has centered on Richardson possibly being named a special envoy to Cuba as the USA works to normalize relations with the island nation. Whether he leaves now or stays, this Governor, who the R's had on the ropes and being measured for prison stripes only a month ago, has shown he has yet to use up his allotted nine lives. How far his next act will get him is anyone's guess. The story is that there will be a next act. WEH'S RUN  It appears the oldest Guv candidate might have some of the youngest spectators when he makes his formal entry into the race. Former GOP Chairman Allen Weh, who has been traveling the state for several months, will make his candidacy official next Tuesday at noon the Student Union Building in the heart of the University of New Mexico campus. Weh, 66, can be expected to use the locale to highlight education issues which have become an increasingly important piece of the political dialogue since the release of the latest NM high school dropout numbers.Weh carries a lot of baggage from his tenure as state GOP chair, but it will be up to his foes to make that an issue. One thing he has that they don't is the personal wealth to write a check and keep his campaign going in lean economic times. Weh, a retired Marine Colonel, is the Chief Executive Officer of CSI Aviation Services, Inc., an international air charter and leasing services company that has been the recipient of some big government contracts in connection with the Iraq war. LINDA IS READY Another Light Guv announcement coming to a neighborhood near you: ABQ Dem State Senator Linda Lopez will kick off her campaign for the Democratic Party nomination for Lieutenant Governor this Saturday from 9:30 A.M. to 10:30 A.M. at Washington Middle School Park (10th and Park Ave). Senator Lopez her family, friends and supporters will then take the Rail Runner to Santa Fe where they’ll kick off Senator Lopez’s Northern New Mexico campaign at The Market Place from 1:30 P.M. to 3:30 P.M. DI'S LATEST  From a fundraising letter sent by Dem Guv front-runner Diane Denish:It seems like every time you turn around, there's a new Republican candidate for Governor. By my count, there are now four. And we all know what that means. More character attacks. More attempts to distort my record. More of the kind of politics that makes us sick. When the time is right, we'll fight back, make no mistake about it. But I'll need your help. If you need an indication of how negative our opponents will get, listen to this. The election isn't for 15 months, and the Republicans have already launched a negative TV ad against me. That might be an all-time low in New Mexico politics. THE BOTTOM LINES ABQ GOP Congressional candidate Jon Barela is off and running on the Web. So far, he is the only R contender seeking the GOP nod and the right to face-off with Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich, and it appears it will stay that way now that funeral home owner Kevin Daniels and GOP State Senator Kent Cravens have decided not to go. Thanks for stopping by this week. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news, comments and photos. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Thursday, September 03, 2009Shades Of Gray On Mayor Campaign Trail, And: Another Round Of Fouratt Fallout, Plus: Reader React On No Indictment Day To see ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez in person and to see him on his colorful billboards that dot the major intersections of the state's largest city raises the question of whether he has had a "Just for Men" moment. The contrast between the gray and somewhat nongray Chavez is such that it has become one of those below the radar issues in this era of photoshop. But Chavez's campaign manager says there is no deliberate intent to trick the voters into thinking a a fourth term of Marty would be a young Marty."That photo for the billboard was taken around Thanksgiving 2007. More gray has come since then." Said Mark Fleisher recently. The mayor in the 2007 photo does have a number of gray hairs, but far fewer than are now sported on the pate of the chief executive. In the billboard pictured here and that we showed once before, ABQ's intrepid graffiti artists supply the mayor with a moustache and goatee, both of which we note are painted on in a deep black, not gray. At 57, Chavez doesn't have to have any stressful reasons for going grayer in two years. When we moderated a mayoral forum the other night for the Westside Chamber of Commerce, I remarked to His Honor that both he and I had done quite a number of such events over the years. He quipped: "That's before we had all this gray hair." So the debate is not over whether Chavez is too old and gray, it's whether after three terms his ideas are too old. TRAIL DUST GOP mayoral contender Richard "RJ" Berry seems not to have one strand of gray in his brown mane. In fact, the candidate is tanned and relaxed and looks like he just got home from a cruise in the Bahamas. As long as he doesn't look at any polls, he should keep the gray away. Berry hit the mailboxes this week with a large, slick color bio piece. The state representative is going to benefit from one trend in the final weeks before the October 6 election--R's tend to come home late and if Berry runs a picture-perfect campaign his strength could surprise. He took another bite out of Chavez Wednesday, aware that absentee voting is underway. For his part, Chavez said he has been endorsed by the Laborers' International Union of North America Local Union #16 The campaign insiders say TV ads for the race will not come until at least late next week--after Labor Day. The campaigns are all taking public financing and $328,000 doesn't go too far. Chavez and Berry will be on the tube. Alligators report Dem Richard Romero may opt out of the TV game, in favor of more direct mail. FOURATT FALLOUT  The debate goes on over that letter GOP US Attorney Greg Fouratt wrote to lawyers for Big Bill and his top aides informing them they would not be indicted in the CDR pay-to-play probe, but added that "pressure from the Governor's office resulted in the corruption of the procurement process so that CDR would be awarded such work."The ABQ Journal pulls out the US attorney rule book and says it is clear that Fouratt had the authority to write such a letter and to let the targets of the investigation know that they should not take the no-indictment decision as being exonerated. That puts to rest speculation to the contrary. However, the newspaper does not carry the quote that sparked the controversy and that was carried by the AP and in newspapers coast-to-coast. Nor do they address the argument made in that quote by Joseph diGenova, a former US Attorney in the Reagan Administration. He said: "That letter is an outrage and the U.S. Attorney who wrote it should be fired,” diGenova told The AP. “The case is closed. If he had charges, bring them. Otherwise, he should shut up. He’s being a politician now, not a prosecutor.” diGenova was not questioning Fouratt's right to author a letter, but the content. He believed it went over the line. Did it? Perhaps diGenova was over reacting and prosecutors commonly put these corruption zingers in their going away letters. That question would seem to merit as much attention as the US attorney's right to pen the letter. THE READERS WRITE  A number of e-mails on our coverage of the CDR case and the decision not to indict anyone in Big Bill's administration. This one took exception with one way we turned a phrase:How do you "escape indictment?" Maybe by being innocent? That's not an "escape." Remember in this country you are innocent until/unless proven guilty...I get sick when the media start sounding like someone is guilty just because they were charged by someone else--the US attorney or otherwise. "Escaped indictment" sounds like they were actually guilty but didn't get caught. At any rate I really question your use of the phrase "escape indictment" to describe the Gov and his staff. I am surely biased and I believe they didn't do anything illegal, but on the other hand I think it's fair to criticize your use of a phrase that makes it sound like they got out by the skin of their teeth. No such thing in American justice.... MANAGING DI Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has a campaign manager for her 2010 run for governor. Oren Shur, a veteran of statewide races in Maryland and Missouri, said this week he has taken over running Denish's Democratic bid for the state's top office. Shur's last campaign position was as a spokesman for Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon. He has also worked on campaigns for Maryland Sens. Barbara Mikulski and Ben Cardin. Shur was working for Cardin when the senator defeated Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele. Some video of Shur here.
MOORE'S MOVE Brian Moore  While the GOP Guv race has been in full swing for a month or more, there has been no contest for the GOP Light Guv position--Until now. Former Clayton area State Rep. Brian Moore has announced his candidacy for the slot. We blogged on the expected run by the grocery store owner back on July 1st.Moore served on the House Appropriations Committee, experience that could help the GOP ticket as budget issues seem destined to stay on center stage for the next several years. Moore is not perceived as a firebrand and his supporters say that could also be an advantage in attracting independents and conservative Dems. He said in his announcement: “When I went to Santa Fe to work for my legislative district, I knew the only way to be effective was to build relations with people from both parties. If we truly want to change the face of politics in New Mexico, working together is the only way to get it done, and I believe I can help make that happen.” Moore is not from ABQ, giving the potential GOP ticket geographic balance if the Guv nominee comes from the big city. Santa Fe Dr. J.R. Damron has told friends he is going to get in the GOP Light Guv race, but he has yet to make a formal announcement. Will Moore's entry keep J.R. out? THE BOTTOM LINES  Conan O'Brien: "Of course, the healthcare debate is raging. And yesterday, John McCain spoke to nearly 100 doctors and nurses. ... It wasn't a political meeting. It was McCain's annual checkup."This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, September 02, 2009Grab A Cigar And Let's Talk Havana: A Place In The Sun For Bill? The Chatter Starts, Plus: Bailing Out NM; Guv's Budget Plan, And: A Partial Eclipse Whether it's idle chatter or the prelude to something remains to be seen, but there is buzz going on for the appointment of Governor Big Bill as a special envoy to Cuba. Because of the profound implications for state politics, the talk is being intensely monitored here.Richardson only last week received the good news that neither he or his top aides will face indictments in the CDR pay-to-play probe. He was in Cuba when he received that news. His trip, supposedly to promote NM agricultural projects, expanded beyond that narrow definition and gave Richardson a chance to show his diplomatic stuff. It was enough for our Senior Alligators to immediately talk of a possible Cuba role for Richardson that would take him out of the Governor's chair. And it now has the foreign policy blog the Washington Note taking notice and calling for a Bill appointment as a special envoy to Cuba. That blog was picked up by Talking Points Memo. Both are liberal sites read by Washington insiders. Here are the money lines now for you Bill watchers: Bill Richardson is the right guy to upend the institutional inertia at the Department of State and the House Foreign Affairs Committee in charting a new, more constructive course in US-Cuba relations. He gets this issue better than any other major player in US politics and made this clear as well during the presidential debates and his campaign for the White House. His modest statement that America did not need a "special envoy" -- and did not need him -- for this challenge is incorrect...Obama should ask Bill Richardson to be his envoy, sherpa and nudge to drive US-Cuba relations beyond the anachronistic Cold War trap they have been in towards new terms of engagement fit for the 21st century and Obama's eventual foreign policy legacy. And there is this video of Richardson bantering with the international press corp and brought to us from CBS News. Richardson turned in a strong performance, even as his domestic critics were lambasting him as ethically challenged. Others wondered why Richardson has time for Cuba while the state confronts its largest fiscal crisis in several generations. (More on that below.) We've been a bit surprised by the number of our veteran analysts who believe Richardson is out of here in a matter of months. Those more cautious say the Guv's relationship with the White House is not that warm and that there is still another pay-to-play probe in progress by the ABQ federal grand jury that could keep the harness on the Guv. THE POLITICS OF THIS Denish & Bill  As we;ve previously written to you, the politics of an appointment, barring any future Big Bill legal troubles, could not be better for this White House.A Richardson appointment would make Democratic Lt. Governor Diane Denish the Governor. Denish, who first supported Hillary Clinton for Prez, would be indebted big time to the Obama White House. She could then bury what could be developing into a nasty political battle for lieutenant governor by naming her own #2. As the incumbent governor--even if only for a couple of months--she would be the heavy favorite for re-election against any R opponent. Also, the next governor will preside over the redrawing of the boundaries of the state's congressional and legislative districts. And, most important to the White House, a Dem governor could help deliver the state's five electoral votes to Obama in 2012. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, but let's not get caught napping either. NO MICHAEL The reaction of veteran politico Steve Cabiedes was pretty typical as word spread among the insiders that State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez, who had formed a Dem Guv exploratory committee, will not take on Denish for the '10 nomination. With no indictments coming down, the reason for his candidacy has vanished. He was seen as a back-up for Denish, if she became too tarred. It does not appear that is going to happen, and Michael will stay on the sidelines. Denish, who has about $1.8 million in the bank, faces no primary opposition, but hold on. Supporters of ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez are holding out the possibility that he could enter the Guv battle if he is successful in his October 6 re-election bid. Not likely perhaps, but nevertheless enough to keep Di from daydreaming too much. BUDGET RABBITS  The Guv pulled a few rabbits out of his hat Tuesday as he unveiled his plan to address the mammoth budget shortfall--now over $440 million for the fiscal year that started July 1st. That shortfall will be addressed in a special legislative session he will likely call for October.His proposal manages to keep the state's cash reserves at 8 percent of the budget without raising taxes or laying off or furloughing any government workers. His big saving is the previously disclosed 3 percent across the board cut in state spending--excluding the public schools. That would shore up $100 million of the shortfall. Senate President Pro Tem Tim Jennings is arguing for a five percent across-the-board cut and he is not talking about exempting education. However, Jennings, an important moderating voice in budget matters, may lose the PR war unless he begins to get specific. For example, will he target the outsized salaries at the administrative level at the University of New Mexico? Or the excessive numbers of administrative personnel at the ABQ Public Schools? With the state's high school drop out rate at miserable levels, New Mexicans are not happy with the results they have been getting from big education spending, but that doesn't mean they are in a punitive mood toward all aspects of public education. They are as adverse to harmful cuts as they are to over-the-top spending. Jennings and company will need to prioritize and spell out their education cuts if they are to sell them. That means taking on the state's education elite--not school teachers and school janitors-and having the political courage to do it. MORE MONEY TALK  On the state's cash reserves, we've pointed out that in the past they have been at five percent. The eight percent level the Guv proposed is down from the over 10 percent we had in the great bull market. Taking it down a percentage or two lower than eight percent--as some lawmakers may want--would not be unprecedented. Lawmakers may want to go there and ignore some of the Guv's specific budget cuts. Speaking of which...The Guv also calls for undoing up to $75 million in capital outlay projects or, as it is more commonly known, legislators "pork." He would put that money in the general fund to help cover the shortfall. And he would use $91 million in federal stimulus money to prevent cuts in school funding. The conservatives are going to come after him on that, arguing that the stimulus money is one time money and will simply put off cuts that are inevitable. Bill will argue using that money now will give us a chance for the economy to recover, which would put more money in state coffers and make education cuts unnecessary. The rabbits in the hat we spoke of earlier are the $135 million in short term bond money that the Guv would put in the general fund and $40 million sitting in bank accounts. Funny how money you never knew existed starts showing up when government jobs are on the line. THE PARTIAL ECLIPSE  Well, it's back. And so is the hype and the near desperate rhetoric to make something out of the failed experiment known as Eclipse Aviation--now Eclipse Aerospace. The "new" Eclipse was announcing this week that it is starting to rehire staff to service the light jets the company once produced, but there are no immediate plans to restart production of the aircraft in which the state invested and lost some $19 million. The company also received millions more in incentives. It was also the company that economic planners and politicians built their economic hopes around in the late, great bull market. They thought Eclipse would be the beginning of an "aviation cluster" here. It did not happen and it is not going to, according to aviation experts who are not drinking the local Kool-Aid.It appears Eclipse could hire up to a couple of hundred workers to service the jets currently out there. That's good news, but Eclipse as a cornerstone of ABQ's future economy was and is a pipe dream. Some of the media seem to be waking up to that fact with slightly more aggressive coverage. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments, anonymously if you wish. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Tuesday, September 01, 2009Light Guv Race: Two Tiers Developing: The Monied And The Unmonied, Plus: Teague And Sec. Chu Politiciking, And: Jerry Pino's Matanza
Rael And Colon
  The race for the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor appears to be developing into a two tier contest--Lawrence Rael and Brian Colon versus the other half dozen or so announced or unannounced contenders. Monday night, Colon, the former Chairman of the Party said he attracted about 400 to his first big fund-raiser. He did not release how much he raised, but a campaign insider said "it will be competitive" with the $50,000 Rael told me he raised at his first major event.The first state finance reports will be filed in October and if Colon and Rael are flush with cash compared to the other candidates, the race could quickly morph into a two man battle. It will be up to the rest of the field to stop that scenario. Shadowing the race is the speculation first heard here on who Diane Denish would name as her Light Guv if she was appointed Governor in the event Big Bill snagged a job with the Obama administration. Would it be Rael who seems to have closer ties to Di than Colon? Or would it be someone out of the blue? No matter. The candidates have got to run like there's no appointment to be had and like there is no tomorrow. Certainly Rael and Colon are of that mind-set as they are fully engaged in the 2010 Money Primary. (Colon's comments at his fund-raiser are posted here. CHU AND TEAGUE Rep. Teague  It wasn't all business for Energy Secretary Steven Chu Monday when he stopped at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces to talk about renewable energy at a conference sponsored by NMSU and at which southern Dem US Rep. Harry Teague was honorary chair. Chu also worked to give some financial energy to the Teague re-election campaign. AAccording to a fund-raising invite, Chu was the "Special Guest' at a 7 p.m. dinner last night at the Ramada Palms Hotel. Cheap seats for those attending were going for $500, with the high end hitting $2,400--the maximum allowable under federal campaign finance law for a primary or general election. Says the invite: The event is a dinner of small capacity with large interest in our special guest, which is why our contribution levels are fixed. We hope to see you there! Teague is hoping that a good showing in Dona Ana County like the one he had in 2008 will offset the bleeding he will suffer in the conservative southeastern portion of the district. Republican Steve Pearce is off and running in what is the NM House election to watch in 2010. The R's slammed Teague for hosting the energy conference, calling Chu a "global warming activist." CRAVENS CRAVING? Was there a poll conducted recently testing the waters for a possible US House candidacy by ABQ GOP State Senator Kent Cravens? The answer is yes, but the answer to whether Cravens will seek the seat held by Dem Rep. Martin Heinrich is no. Cravens confirmed to us that there was a poll, but he was mum on the details. He called the survey "encouraging" but said he is firmly in the corner of GOP candidate Jon Barela who has already announced a run. Earlier, funeral home director Kevin Daniels spiked the idea of a GOP congressional bid. Cravens, who has served in the Senate since 2001, runs an Alphagraphics franchise with wife Melanie. Political circles have chatted him up as a possible 2010 GOP lieutenant governor candidate, but he said he is not interested. While there are plenty of potential Light Guvs on the Dem side, there are no announced GOP #2 contenders. Santa Fe's J.R. Damron has told friends he will seek the slot. Former Clayton area GOP State Rep. Brian Moore told me he is also weighing a run. WHOSE NEXT?  US Attorney Greg Fouratt may or not be headed toward the exits now that the CDR pay-to-play investigation into Big Bill's administration has ended with no indictments. But it's a given that the Democratic White House would at some time want one of their own in the position. The Alligators of La Politica are already gaming the action. Here's one incisive take:The difficulty in who to select is that because we are a fairly underpopulated state--most quality attorneys are also connected politically and that gives rise to allegations that the position is offered up as political payback--especially if the lawyer is close to the Governor because then the R's will say the appointment was done to protect the Gov. Of course, the vast majority of quality lawyers are close to him so that rules them out. There may not be TV ads or campaign literature, but the race to be US Attorney is on. Santa Fe attorney John Pound is still frequently mentioned as a front-runner for the post because of his long ties to Senator Bingaman who will have a major say on who will get the job if and when Fouratt is replaced. ABQ's Pete Dinelli is actively campaigning for the post. Speaking of the US Attorney post, former US Attorney General Alberto Gonzales will be in Hobbs, NM next month. That's about as far away from ABQ as he can get and still be in the state. And that's the way he probably wants it. The US attorney scandal featuring the ouster of David Iglesias had Gonzalez under the gun. Gonzales of Texas will speak at the local Hispano Chamber of Commerce annual banquet. NOW THAT'S LIBERAL Joe (me) and Jerry  ABQ Dem state senator and lieutenant governor hopeful Jerry Ortiz y Pino is known as one of the state's leading liberals, but he has come with a campaign plan that might even attract conservatives. Ortiz y Pino, noting our blog in which ABQ Dem State Sen. Linda Lopez discusses her Sept. 5 Light Guv announcement and how she will serve pastries and burritos at the event, says he is going whole hog--literally. Ortiz y Pino will throw a traditional matanza to mark his official entry into the race. Get your calenders out. The matanza featuring a pig roasted in the ground will be held October 11 at the Cornstalk Institute on Barcelona, midway between Isleta and Coors.Good start, Jerry. Now about those tax increases. Could you bury them with the pig? This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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