Monday, May 03, 2010
Dem Light Guv Battle Goes To Tube; Colón Opens Air Game, Plus: ABQ Mayor & Immigration, And: Solar Sceptics Surface On Rio Rancho Deal
The first major TV buy in that five way race for the Dem nod for lieutenant governor is up on the air, and not surprisingly it comes from fund-raising leader Brian Colón. The thirty second ad is pretty busy, but well-produced. It mixes Colón's biography with a message on education and finishes with an attack on the Republicans and a line in Spanish. The ad is posted here. Some of the script:
Search ResultThe former chairman of the state Democratic Party comes with a pretty busy 30 second ad as he makes his debut on the statewide stage. He mixes his biography with a message on education and polishes it off with a line in Spanish. The ad is posted here. Some of the script:
When I was young, I never knew we were poor. I'm Brian Colón and I realized later when it took my father's live savings to open this flea market....It taught me the importance of going to college. It's why I worked to increase teacher pay and reduce class size. As lieutenant governor I'll fight to stop the Republicans who are hurting the public schools.
At the end the ad pictures Colón with his wife and young son and saying of the education system, "I have a stake in it too."
One of our Alligators comes with the instant analysis:
He seems to be trying to appeal to Hispanics and I'm trying to decide if that means he has the Anglo vote locked up or maybe someone else does. The ad is...light on who he is and what he's done. Maybe the more emotional appeal works but I think he leaves open the chance for an attack on his qualifications.
Maybe he's got it locked and he just wants to be positive and solidify the Hispanic vote for (soon-to-be Dem Guv nominee) Diane Denish...
The Dem light guv race features five Hispanic candidates which is why that Gator wonders if any of the candidates is rounding up more Anglo votes than the others. This won't be the candidate's only spot, so voters will see other sides of him. Colón, an attorney, says he will stay up on TV until the June 1 primary.
Colón may not have the race locked up, but he has campaigned relentlessly, raised money and no one has attacked him--yet.
The onus is now on Lawrence Rael and Joe Campos to keep up with him. Linda Lopez and Jerry Ortiz y Pino do not have money for TV.
BERRY AND IMMIGRATION
ABQ Mayor RJ Berry says the city continues to review its policy regarding how police should check a person's immigration status. Berry ran to the right on this in last year's election, calling ABQ a "sanctuary city" and pledging to take a look at making police procedures more stringent when it comes to suspected illegal immigrants. But there is now an emotional explosion over the anti-immigration law next door to us in Arizona and its shock waves are being felt here.
It would seem the last thing Berry would want is to move in the Arizona direction. Our economy is bad enough without our local businesses being subjected to boycotts. And why needlessly divide our community at this time?
As for the review, Mayor, you might want to keep that going--for another four years.
Our TV team (thanks, Gina) comes with more pricing info for us on TV time for Primary '10, revealing that prices for one of the most coveted time slots has taken a dive from past years. That would be the 10 pm news, where politicos like to place their ads to reach a politically engaged audience more likely to vote.
A price for a 30 second spot on KOAT-TV at 10 pm has slumped to $480 this cycle. KOB is even cheaper at $400 a pop and top-rated KRQE is selling the 10 pm news for $700.
Available ad inventory at the local stations appears to remain high during this recession. Also, we're told news viewership is also down so while ad prices have declined so has the audience. Media watchers say spots could get more expensive in the fall if the economy is stronger in the fourth quarter and the politicians are competing for space with more advertisers.
(By the way, the 9 pm news on KASA is going for $325.)
You say you're a candidate who doesn't want to mess around with targeting your audience? How about going up on the popular Fox show "American Idol?" It's all yours in the ABQ market for $2,000 a pop.
Since the collapse of highly touted Eclipse Aviation and with it the vanishing of millions in taxpayer dollars and subsidies, the media, wisely, we think, has grown more sceptical and less of a cheerleader of dreamy economic plans whose success is dependent on the public treasury. The newspaper came with a front-pager over the weekend, questioning how Green2V, a proposed Solar manufacturing plant the politicos are backing in Rio Rancho, will actually get off the ground. The article is eerily similar to early warnings about Eclipse as it is filled with quotes from industry experts warning of the hazards.
New Mexico is tired of being played for River City. We need real jobs with real futures, not more projects that promise but don't deliver--that tap our resources as they blindly gamble with an ante put up by taxpayers. We have record unemployment, cuts in public education and skyrocketing budget deficits at all levels of government. Real human needs are in competition for resources now, not like the giddy days of the long dead Bull Market.
Rio Rancho Mayor Tom Swisstack, Noreen Scott, president of Rio Rancho Economic Development Corp., City Manager James Jimenez, state Economic Development Director Fred Mondragon and Senator Bingaman, who attended the groundbreaking for this outfit, should be on notice that Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico want the tough questions asked and they want them answered when it is their good credit making possible these projects. We don't need another Eclipse, and if we get one there should be consequences for the public officials responsible.
As it stands now, Green2V and its CEO--former Intel executive Bill Sheppard--are looking shakier than cafeteria Jell-O. Don't say we didn't tell you.
Another take today on that 2003 coup of state GOP chairman Ramsay Gorham that we referenced Friday as a historic turning point in the tumbling fortunes of the NM GOP. From a reader who was involved at the time:
Looking back, I think that it was all about the money and consolidation of power. Gorham was able to come in as state chair as an outsider and owed allegiance to none of the old guard so they had no sway over the state party. It had nothing to do with ideology or ideas and everything to do with power and money. I doubt anything has really changed. Until they learn that this is about the state of New Mexico and the survival of America, the NMGOP will remain relegated to an insignificant minority party. There, now I feel better.
We disagree that the coup was also not about ideas. Gorham was attractive to those who wanted to see the party set off in a more moderate direction. It is true that she was a threat to the consultants and power structure of the GOP at that time. She took them on and that was probably the chief reason she was forced out. We're told Ramsay, a former state senator from ABQ, now lives in North Carolina.
It's funny how some see our call for moderating the GOP as a sell-out to the Dems. If you're old enough, you remember the ultra-liberal Democratic Party of 1972 led by George McGovern. That party had to moderate or perish--and it did. The rigid ideologues who wish to continue to model the GOP here after the Bush-Rove years act like we are in Alabama. They need to wake up and smell the enchiladas or continue to eat their grits at a very lonely table.
THAT'S A COOL RIDE, JOSE
Allen Weh may have a shiny pick-up truck to trek around the state in search of GOP votes, but we think Dem Lt. Governor candidate Joe Campos may have him beat--at least on the days when the weather is warm.
Campos is pictured here on his spiffy motorcycle manufactured by "Victory." The company featured the Santa Rosa area state representative in
a recent article.
One of Campos volunteers says the bike is a "real magnet for gals from Hobbs." Wonder if he has someone in particular in mind?
THE BOTTOM LINES
It was Wednesday night when that negative phone poll went from the Allen Weh Guv campaign out hitting Susana Martinez. In our first draft Friday, we blogged it was Thursday night.
We also had some email questioning whether this was a "push poll" as we called it--one designed to move voters off of Martinez and over to Weh--or a poll to test negative messages against Martinez for use in future advertising. To us, it's pretty much a distinction without a difference. The news is that Weh is the first GOP candidate to go publicly negative in the race and is looking to peel votes away from Martinez, although some pollsters may nuance over technique.
One other note. George W. Bush won New Mexico once, not twice, as we first blogged. Bush lost to Al Gore here in 2000 by less than 1,000 votes. Hard to see how we forgot that. We were on the air that Election Night with former Mayor Marty Chavez and the gang until 4 in the morning....
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
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