New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

Monday, June 07, 2010

Should More Santa Fe Incumbents Be Watching Their Backs? We Have A List, Plus: Di's 1st TV Ad Misses Bullseye, And: The Press & Pay-To-Play

You can argue whether Tuesday's results showed an anti-incumbent trend, but the blow-out victory of newcomer Susana Martinez for the GOP Guv nomination and the near-death experience of Democratic House Speaker Ben Lujan (he will eke out the win) is enough for us to believe that voters are at the least looking for something new. If that's right, are there more incumbent legislators who now have reason to watch their backs?

Insiders say Dem Bernalillo County state representatives Mimi Stewart and Danice Picraux are in pretty safe seats, but there is potential for intrigue. The R's have fielded candidates against both of the legislators and their districts are not overwhelming D. With Tuesday's results, maybe the R's try to to find additional funding for these races.

Two legislative veterans who could be ripe for the picking in an anti-incumbent wave--Ed Sandoval--elected in '82--and Kiki Saavedra--elected in '76--had no primary opponents and also drew no general election foes. Kiki is chair of House Appropriations and Ed is chairman of Tax and Revenue. They are very close allies of Speaker Lujan.

Saavedra made peace with the progressive wing of the Dem party before the primary by, in part, opposing the proposed food tax. He drew no liberal challenger who could have posed a threat. Sandoval also was left alone by the libs.

The standing of these two powerful chairmen is out of the hands of the voters and now rests with how Speaker Lujan fares with the House Dem caucus when it meets at the end of the year to vote on its leadership. Ben has been speaker since 2001.

Santa Fe powerhouse Lucky Varela, elected to the House in '86 and chairman of the Legislative Finance Committee, also drew no Democratic primary foe. But he did draw a GOP challenger for the fall in Bob Walsh. Lucky will be heavily favored, but as with the Lujan race, this contest will now be closely watched to see what percentage Varela comes home with.

The old lions of the NM House may be with us a while longer, but they are on their last hunt.

MORE TO WATCH

Dem Jeff Steinborn in Las Cruces is always on the line in his swing district, and more so in this political climate. ABQ Dem Karen Giannini is widely expected to lose her seat after she took it from R Justine Fox Young due to the Obama landslide that seeped into the ABQ NE Heights. R's also think freshman Dem Rep. Ben Rodefer in the Corrales area is a goner because the district also flipped during the Obama wave.

Back to the theory that voter dissatisfaction is especially acute with incumbents who have been in a while. That would include R's as well as D's. So put the race between Sandoval County GOP State Rep, Jane Powdrell Cublert higher on your list. She is seeking a fifth, two year term and is getting an aggressive challenge from Dem attorney Joel Davis. If the anti-incumbent stars do indeed align, there could be a surprise.

That's a short list for now, but the list of incumbents endangered, or at least forced to spend more money than they like, could grow over the summer.

HOW BARELA WAS BEAT

The one Dem legislator to lose his seat Tuesday was Elias Barela who was ousted in his Valencia County primary by Julian Luna, executive director of the NM Racing Commission. Barela was going for this third term. We blogged Friday that insiders were saying Barela was surprised by his ouster because polling showed he was in decent shape and that his polling did not account for the new voters Luna was bringing out. But the pollster for Barela, Stephen Claremont of Third Eye Strategies, emails in to clarify:

Barela did only one poll two months ago, before the campaign communications began. I did interview newer voters as part of the survey and did cast a relatively broad net in determining who would vote in this low turnout election. The campaign did not poll during the last eight weeks of the election. Julian Luna did run a good campaign, and his surge was not missed by my polling, it was not commissioned.

Profiles of all the legislators mentioned here can be found on the legislative Web site.

THE AD WAR

Can't we get a clean hit in the TV ad wars? First we had Allen Weh come with an ad in the GOP Guv primary that accused Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez of failing to pay her taxes. That was so far out of the park that the GOP Chairman said Weh employed "dishonesty." Then we got the Martinez ad that seemed to go too far in charging that Weh wanted amnesty for illegal immigrants. Now we get the first ad from Dem nominee Diane Denish against GOP nominee Martinez, and while it is nowhere near as egregious as Weh's over the top hit, the ad is not doing well when it comes under media scrutiny. The ABQ Journal came with this:

But Martinez has a 13 year record as DA. Isn't there stuff that Di can use that doesn't call into question her own credibility?

The AP also delved into the ad as did nmpolitics.net.

VOX POPULI

The polls will be coming at us at a much more rapid pace now that we are down to two Guv contenders. Rasmussen went into the field on Thursday and came back reporting that Martinez holds a two point edge over Denish--44 to 42. Susana is still riding high from her intense exposure on TV during the primary win, but the poll does confirm what we all know--for now, we have a competitive race for the Guv's chair.

NO PRESS PRESSURE

The New Mexico press has been in a frenzy over pay-to-play (and not without reason) but now the ink-stained wretches seem to be falling back into their old habits.

It was vast sums flooding into Big Bill's gubernatorial and presidential campaign coffers that later led to the allegations and investigations that claimed contributors benefited from state largess. But flash forward to Campaign 2010 and the press seems to have amnesia. No editorials or table-pounding on how the candidates for Governor should show some self-restraint in the amount of money they take from individual donors or from companies that do a lot of business with the state. Both Martinez and Denish are going to be showered in millions. Already Martinez has set the state record for an individual contributor by taking $450,000 from Texas developer Bob "Swiftboat" Perry.

The press seems content to stick with the "they all do it" argument. For example:

Both candidates stand to gain support from inside and outside New Mexico's borders — and both are likely to tout their in-state backers more loudly. By the time Nov. 2 approaches, chances are that the two will be up to their necks in political debt to big national interests, so neither will be able to tar the other as sold out to folks who oughtn't be running our state.

Maybe the ink-stained wretches are resigned to it all and await campaign contribution limits to take effect folowing the election. If that's the case, so be it. But when they find out later that some of this huge money has bought more than a smile and a handshake, they can spare us expressions of shock that there's gambling going on in the casino.

THE BOTTOM LINES

On our election broadcast last Tuesday we talked about the last time we had an all Hispanic Guv ticket, as the R's do this year with Martinez and John Sanchez as Light Guv. It was pointed out that in 1968 Fabian Chavez led the ticker and that a Hispanic legislator was the Light Guv nominee. But our emailer to the station had the wrong name. It was Mike Alarid, a state senator. Fabian lives in Santa Fe. Alarid passed away in 2007 at 89.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009

Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Posted by: Joe Monahan / Monday, June 07, 2010

Friday, June 04, 2010

Wrapping The Week That Was: Our Winners And Losers List For Primary 2010

We'll remember this primary election week for the big winning margin in that GOP Guv primary and for the narrow escape made by House Speaker Lujan in his Santa Fe area primary. Lots to think about with both those outcomes.

As for the big winners and losers of Primary 2010, here's our list drafted with the able assistance of our Senior Alligators.

WINNER--Susana Martinez. Duh! That's pretty obvious. A twenty plus point landslide in a five candidate field for the GOP Guv nomination. She far surpassed expectations and took momentum into the fall campaign. Nice. Very nice.

LOSER--Lawrence Rael. The Dem lieutenant governor is a fine government administrator, but could not grasp the skill-set needed for a candidate. He finished second to Brian Colon.

WINNER--Julian Luna. He beat Valencia County State Rep. Elias Barela for the Dem nomination. He did it by pulling in new voters--voters who were not accounted for in Barela's polls which showed him winning.

LOSER--House Speaker Ben Lujan. He is going to win the Dem primary contest for his Santa Fe area seat by less than 100 votes. It was a shocker and its ramifications are only now being assessed. For sure, the impact is not good for the future power of the 74 year old leader.

WINNER---Doug Turner. The GOP Guv candidate scored only 12 percent of the GOP Guv primary vote, but he beat expectations. He is only 41 and the campaign may have positioned him for future opportunity. What that will be, however, is not obvious.

WINNER AND LOSER---Janice Arnold-Jones. Not a very good campaign for the GOP Guv contender, but a convincing TV debate performance sent the message that she would be a fine addition to the cabinet of either a Dem or GOP Guv administration.

LOSER--Allen Weh. You spend $1.6 million of your own cash and you get blown out of the water for the GOP Guv nomination. Enough said.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Join us Sunday at 4:30 p.m. on KOB-TV for "Eye on New Mexico" as we sit down for a final round of analysis of the 2010 primary with anchor Nicole Brady and political reporter Stuart Dyson.

It was a fun week with the radio, TV programs and the blog keeping us engaged in the action. A lot of folks behind the scenes helped us out. On KANW-FM Kevin Otero was our producer; Larry Gonzales Smith assisted with the underwriting. Steve Cabiedes coordinated our early vote gathering. Bruce Donisthorpe had the statewide early results and analysis.

Thanks for tuning us in here and elsewhere. We appreciate your continued interest.

From Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan reporting.

Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Posted by: Joe Monahan / Friday, June 04, 2010

Thursday, June 03, 2010

Denish Fires At Martinez With First Negative TV Ad Of Campaign 2010; Intent Is To Define GOP Nominee Before She Takes Hold

There will be no pause button for Campaign 2010. Freshly minted Democratic Guv nominee Diane Denish has come with paid TV sharply questioning the record and performance of GOP Guv nominee and Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez. A spot that hit Thursday morning "challenges Martinez to explain her broken pledge on felony DWI plea bargains and her horrible murder conviction rate," according to the Denish campaign. You can see the ad here. The campaign came with this back-up info for the ad.

The 30 second spot concludes: "Susana Martinez--broken promises---criminals back on the street. And she wants to be Governor?"

Martinez came with this detailed response to the Denish charges.

The Democratic strategy became evident within hours of the primary election polls closing Tuesday night. Denish lashed out at the Martinez record and the Democratic Party followed up with its own slashes.

But the big issue is paid TV ads which, if done right, can be effective in defining your opponent, especially if she is as unknown as Martinez. And Democrats want to define Martinez early. Her favorable rating right now is presumed to be sky high after her 51% landslide primary victory.

Campaign pros on both sides of the aisle say public interest is still there for the campaign, but will start to fade as we get closer to July. They say the window of opportunity for a negative campaign is open for the next couple of weeks. It will be the always-aggressive Denish who will be the first through the opening.

The Light Guv's campaign has stockpiled some $2.7 million in cash. Martinez's last finance report had her down to $139,000. But getting money raised to respond shouldn't be the problem. It will be getting a well-produced ad up in response and in rotation. Unlike Denish, Martinez's team may be exhausted from a competitive GOP primary which saw intense negative ads between Martinez and Weh.

But in this race for the Governor's chair there will be precious little rest for the weary or anyone else.

THE FIRST DAY

On her first day as the Dem Guv nominee Denish joined with her new running mate Brian Colon and headed to Lea County where she will be glad to tell you she was born and raised. Martinez says on her Web site she was "born and raised in the Rio Grande Valley." In a December article the Las Cruces Sun-News said Martinez is a native of El Paso but there have been few, if any, major bio pieces yet delving into Martinez's family background or heritage.

Lea may be the most conservative county in the state and a cornerstone of any strategy to put a Republican in the Guv's chair. President Bush carried the county with a stunning 80% of the vote in 2004, but in 2002, Bill Richardson tied Republican John Sanchez there, cutting the R's off at the pass.

Denish hopes to stall GOP southern momentum in Lea as well as and Martinez's home county of Dona Ana. She and Colon also held events in Las Cruces Wednesday.

The best thing Susana has going for her may be voter angst over a variety of issues, including the sorry economy. Her pollster, Nicole McCleskey of Public Opinion Strategies, came with a memo that made the Martinez case.

In a statewide survey of 500 likely general election voters conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (POS) in late January 2010, 61% of voters believe the state has gotten off on the wrong track. This includes two-thirds of Independent voters (66%) and even 59% of soft Democrats who are dissatisfied with the direction the state is headed.

In a recently released Rasmussen survey conducted among 500 likely voters, 57% of voters disapprove of the job Bill Richardson is doing.

Martinez is already in front among Independent voters, leading 50%-38%.

All of this comes before the inevitable attacks on the DA, but Richardson's unpopularity and whether it sticks to Di has emerged as a central issue.

ADVISING MARTINEZ
McCleskey & Moomaw

Nicole is married to GOP consultant Jay McCleskey of Lincoln Strategy Group. He ran the 2000 campaign of John Sanchez when John ousted House Speaker Raymond Sanchez from his ABQ seat. Flash forward to 2010 and John Sanchez, who was the 2002 GOP Guv nominee, is now the GOP Light Guv nominee.

It's not clear how prominent a role John Sanchez will play in the Martinez campaign. In the past, R Light Guv contenders have often been let to go their own way. Think Rod Adair who was John Sanchez's running mate in 2002.

Also playing a prominent if unpaid role in the Martinez campaign is Kevin Moomaw, a former executive director of the NM GOP when John Dendahl was chair in the late 90's. He left NM shortly after Dendhal gave him the ax in 2000. Moomaw later became a senior adviser to Texas Lt. Governor David Dewhurst. He recently left that post to become a fund-raiser for the University of Texas at Austin.

Moomaw says the insiders are inflating his role: "I did not play a prominent role in Martinez's campaign. I do talk to Jay on occasion but I didn't play a role in her campaign....I think Martinez is an outstanding candidate and I wish her well."

In political circles McCleskey is considered Moomaw's protege. In 2009, McCleskey ran the campaign of RJ Berry who was elected mayor.

WEH'S WAY

With such a huge victory--51% in a five way field---Martinez operatives can't be very concerned that Allen Weh refused to endorse her on Election Night. She made some conciliatory comments about the former GOP party chairman in her victory speech, but Weh did not give a formal endorsement of her candidacy, although he did call to congratulate her.

The pair waged a bruising negative campaign in the closing weeks of the campaign and GOP Chair Yates turned on Weh and said one of his TV ads employed "dishonesty."

Weh may be 67 and a tough retired Marine Reserve Colonel, but his skin seems thin when it comes to the battlefield of La Politica. Maybe that's one of the things voter sensed about him and then tgave the hardened prosecutor from Cruces the go ahead.

FROM THE EAST

The WaPo's Chris Cilizza comes with insider analysis of the Martinez win, saying the DC based Republican Governors Association played a role:

The RGA knew it wanted Martinez as its nominee...They also knew that a Washington-based organization endorsing her might not be a recipe for success in this anti-establishment year. So, they helped steer hundreds of thousands of dollars to her campaign and orchestrated an endorsement from former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Both moves provided Martinez a significant boost and led to her easy win t that not only gives Republicans a fighting chance in the Democratic-leaning Land of Enchantment but also gives the party a Hispanic female face to push back against the "old, white guy" image the GOP is currently battling.

Chris is right that a direct intervention by the RGA may have been too high risk, but the endorsement by Palin is not without its pitfalls, either. The Dems will make sure their base voters hear about them.

And that "hundreds of thousands of dollars" he references came to Martinez from Texas developer Bob Perry in the form of a $450,000 campaign contribution, the largest in state history, and one that has raised eyebrows as Martinez attacks her Dem rivals for presiding over a pay-to-play administration

Insiders tell us the RGA has not yet committed to big money for Martinez for the general election. They would like to, but the decision will be based on how she stands in the polls.

Email your news and comments, anonymously if you wish.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Posted by: Joe Monahan / Thursday, June 03, 2010

Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Voters Put Incumbents On Notice: Martinez Landslide For GOP And Scare Of A Lifetime For Speaker Lujan, Plus: More State Election Results & Analysis

Martinez & Denish (Journal)

They don't have pitchforks yet, but the New Mexican electorate appears as restless as its ever been, signaling Tuesday a burning desire for new faces. Republicans awarded a runaway victory to Susana Martinez as their 2010 gubernatorial nominee and Democrats gave NM House Speaker Ben Lujan the scare of his life.

Martinez's breathtaking victory--51% in a five way race--and Lujan's near-death political experience--he beat his primary challenger Carl Trujillo by a mere 72 votes--confirmed that the unsettled national political environment has not skipped New Mexico. There is now a target on the back of any long-term officeholder--in either party.

The AP wrap on the Guv race is here. More coverage here. All state results here. Bernalillo County results here. Sec. of State results here.

Even though she is a 13 year Dona Ana County district attorney, Martinez is a new face on the statewide scene. That conservative Republicans would overlook her thin political resume and opt for the first Hispanic female to ever lead a Guv ticket here or anywhere, demonstrates that the collapse of the old social and economic order is ushering in a new political era where anxious voters break conventional restraints and seek the unconventional.

Martinez was fully embraced in nearly all of the state's 33 counties. She didn't allow retired Marine Colonel Allen Weh, her closet rival, to even set a foot on the battlefield. The early vote in Bernalillo County, the state's largest, was released seconds after the 7 p.m. close of the polls. It showed Martinez with an 11 point lead that would eventually grow to an outlandish 17 and to over 20 statewide. That was the first and last shot she needed to fire. The race was over.

The landslide numbers: Martinez--51--Weh--28--Turner--12--Domenici--7--Arnold-Jones--3.

Mammoth Martinez wins in San Juan and Chaves, longtime GOP bastions, were speckled with healthy turnout numbers and had the R's at our KANW-FM round table on fire. The Dems had them on a starvation diet in 2006 and 2008 and they think this time they've found in the Martinez candidacy the red meat they crave.

We have Martinez winning 31 of the 33 counties. Roosevelt and Cibola appear to have gone for Weh. In conservative Lea County in the SE, it was close. Weh scored 39% to Martinez's 44%.

No wonder Diane Denish, newly coronated as the Dem Guv nominee, wasted no time in throwing some cold water on this blazing party. Taking the podium at a downtown ABQ downtown hotel, Di dug in her heels, admitting that this was going to be a competitive race. She then began her campaign to end this competition early by dissing nearly every aspect of Martinez's record as district attorney.

But with this blow-the-doors off win, you could quickly imagine armored cars full of cash streaming across the state border headed to Martinez headquarters.

Martinez didn't offer much new in her victory speech, delivering her now familiar bromides about corruption in Santa Fe and the "bold change" she will bring to the state. But who says she needs to do much more? The Dems greatest fear is that voters--desperate for the new--set the bar exceptionally low for the GOP nominee and don't listen to them as they mount their offensive against the DA's record.

Throwing the bums out is a grand old American tradition. After Tuesday night, there may be more politicos in that category than anyone ever suspected.

THE LIGHT GUV

Republican John Sanchez, who was the 2002 GOP Guv nominee, took the GOP lieutenant governor nod over Kent Cravens and Brian Moore--39--31--29. State Senator Cravens has to be kicking himself. John spent over $350,000 on the contest--much of it his own money--to make a big TV buy. If Cravens had raised just $100,000 more he would probably be the winner today.

Martinez and Sanchez will be the first all-Hispanic GOP Guv ticket in state history. In 1968, the Democrats had two Hispanics lead their ticket.

DEM LIGHT GUV

This race was never much in question when Brian Colon raised the most money and went up on TV with a big ad buy. Lawrence Rael held Colon at bay in big Bernalillo County--but barely. But outside the metro, Colon won handily. For example, he carried Eddy and San Juan counties big. Statewide, Colon beat Rael 29 to 24 with Joe Campos getting 20. Linda Lopez scored 15 and Jerry Ortiz y Pino 12%.

It was no secret that Colon was not a favorite of Di, who fears the former Dem Party chairman's ties to Big Bill could slow the ticket. But in the end, the fear seemed to dissolve as it became clear once again that the top of the ticket will be the feature presentation, even if the R's try to surface Colon's ties to the Guv.

Colon seemed all team player in his interviews Tuesday night.

GIVE IT UP

Not one candidate who failed to get at least 20 percent of the delegate vote at the March Dem and GOP pre-primary conventions saw the winner's circle Tuesday night. That ought to tell future office seekers that if they can't meet the threshold to make the ballot without filing extra petition signatures, they ought to end their pain early.

TURNOUT

It's still early, but it appears turnout for the primary was about 28% of registered Dems and R's. About 34% of the R's came out and about 22% of the Dems. The R's surged to over 120,00 surpassing the 115,000 hit when Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce faced off in their hot and heavy 2008 contest for a US Senate nomination. The Dems also had in the area of 120,000 voters.

Update: ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) - Unofficial returns in New Mexico's primary election indicate that about 28 percent of eligible Republican and Democratic voters cast ballots.

More than 257,000 total votes were cast in Tuesday's election, according to unofficial returns on the secretary of state's web site.

The solid turnout is good news for the R's. They are clearly more energized than the Dems. Of course, with only 32% of the state's registered voters they need to be.

UPSET CITY
Lujan

House Speaker Lujan held on by his fingernails in Santa Fe, but incumbent Valencia County Dem state Rep. Elias Barela was ousted by Julian Luna, the executive director of the NM Racing Commission. Business interests favored Luna.

Down Alamogordo way, Republican Gloria Vaughn fell to primary foe Yvette Herrell. Vaughn is getting on in years, normally not a big deal, but in this environment it worked against her.

School teacher Jim Smith is going to the Roundhouse. He beat his rival for the GOP nomination for the House seat of Rep. Kathy McCoy who is retiring. The seat includes the far NE Heights of ABQ and East Mountains. No Dem filed for the seat.

Republican David Doyle will take on vulnerable ABQ West side incumbent Dem state Rep. Ben Rodefer. Doyle came in first in a three man GOP primary field.

LUJAN REDUX

So what does the near defeat of Ben Lujan mean to the power structure of the 70 member state House? "It's kind of like the Catholics planning for a new pope. The House Dems will start planning for a new leader. This may very well be Lujan's final two year term." Opined a Senior Alligator.

Will there be a challenge to Lujan's reign as there was several years ago when State Rep. Kenny Martinez tried unsuccessfully to coup the strong-willed Lujan?

There could be, but "you can't replace somebody with nobody" and no one has emerged, said our Senior Gator. But surely Kenny must be putting his thinking cap back on. Maybe he talks to Ben about a transition in a year or so.

Lujan and Denish aren't that close. If she is elected Governor, she might welcome a change in that power seat. Stay tuned.

MORE BALLOT ACTION

It wasn't all party hats and confetti for the R's primary night. They are worried that they will give up the land commission office to the Dems. The D's nominated former commissioner Ray Powell and the R's came with unknown Matt Rush. R Pat Lyons has held the office for eight years. He ran yesterday for the GOP nomination for a southern Public Regulation Commission seat and he is now expected to win the general election in November.

Meanwhile, the Dems dodged a bullet when they rejected the ethically challenged candidacy of Rio Rancho attorney Dennis Montoya. He challenged Court of Appeals Judge Linda Vanzi. She won it 55% to 45%. Bernalillo County was the key, giving Vanzi a landslide. D's did not want Montoya in there adding to their corruption baggage.

OBSERVATIONS
The E-Nite Radio Gang

Our joemonahan.com polls of mid and late May proved accurate, predicting all the winners in the major races. We had Martinez by 11. She went on to win by 23, picking up most of the undecided and picking off votes from the other four candidates....

Dan Houston won the GOP nod for Bernalillo County sheriff over William Kurth. He will face appointed Dem Sheriff Manny Gonzales. R's may be able to pick this one off. No Hispanic Dem in recent memory has been elected sheriff...

Should Diane Denish put up a vote on her Web site on whether she should wear eyeglasses? She features both looks on occasion. She looks younger without them, but serious with them. Take your pick....

Will someone give Susana Martinez a platform to stand on or a smaller podium? She looked like she was peeking over a fence when she gave her victory speech in Las Cruces...

Thanks to all my guests and contributors to our KANW broadcast. It was fun all around.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Posted by: Joe Monahan / Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Today Is Primary Election Day 2010; Voters Decide Fates As State Waits; Our Live Coverage Starts At 6:30 p.m. On 89.1 FM & Web

For a change, the state's political eyes are all focused on the south on a primary election day. The question at hand: Can Susana Martinez, a Hispanic Republican woman with a decidedly middle-class background, make history by capturing her party's nomination and then steer that party on a course to broaden its appeal and capture the New Mexican governorship?

We should have an answer to the first part of that query no later than 10 p.m. We'll be broadcasting the outcome live to you on KANW 89.1 FM as well as streamed live from the station's web site. We begin at 6:3o. CLICK HERE for the live coverage.

"Republican Hispanic woman." It sure sounds like an oxymoron. This is a Republican Party composed primarily of well-off and elderly Anglos. We were stunned to learn recently that over 80 percent of the R's in Bernalillo County are over the age of 55.

As for their recent win-loss record, it's something similar to the UNM Lobos 1 and 11 football record this past season. Republican land commissioner Pat Lyons is the only prominent statewide R, with all other key offices held by the Dems.

If ever there was a party in need of a new image and new personalities, this is it. And with pre-election polls heavily favoring Martinez, 50, over Alpha Anglo male Allen Weh, New Mexico's R's seem to agree. If Martinez does don the crown this evening, she will embark on a steep learning curve. The three term Dona Ana County DA has never battled on the statewide and national stage. But she may have something extra going for her in this unusual election year--so many voters burn for change that they may set the bar lower for the newcomer. They want a debate as this state faces unprecedented challenges.

A summer honeymoon for the plucky DA would be just what the political doctor ordered, but there's still trouble to reckon with in her own backyard. Martinez waged a bruising negative TV campaign with Allen Weh. That, says pollster Brian Sanderoff, could slow down the DA when she heads out of the starting gate for the main event.

"(The negative ads) play both ways. All of a sudden they are slamming each other. That's going to affect the favorability of both of them"

Here's the AP wrap on today's statewide ballot action.

PARTY WITH NO PARTY?

You know the old line, "what if they gave a party and no one came?" Well, that's precisely the situation facing the state GOP tonight as they gather at ABQ's Marriott Pyramid hotel. It seems only one of the five GOP Guv candidates will be there--Pete Domenici Jr.

Is this a sign of a party fractured from a primary fight that turned bitter in the closing days? Perhaps it is when it comes to Allen Weh's candidacy. He feels betrayed by GOP chairman Harvey Yates who criticized Weh's major attack ad against Martinez and demanded that Weh pull it down. Weh will be at his own campaign headquarters tonight.

By the way, we've obtained the behind-the-scenes back and forth memos between the Yates and Weh camps over that advertising blow-up in which Yates accused former chairman Weh of "dishonesty." You can read them here.

And the Huffington Post came with a late blast over the weekend of Weh, owner of a charter aviation company, over the key issue of illegal immigration. The money lines:

On any given day, CSI Aviation has six planes in the air transporting illegal immigrants for ICE as well as for the Justice Prisoner and Alien Transportation System (JPATS) operated by the U.S. Marshall's Service. It also arranges deportation flights around the world, mostly to Central America. The federal government's contracts with CSI Aviation have helped make its owner a wealthy man.

Doug Turner and Janice Arnold-Jones will also be holed up at their headquarters' to watch the returns with supporters.

As for Martinez, the expected nominee is going to be in Las Cruces this evening, at the Hotel Encanto de Las Cruces, choosing to fire up her home county supporters rather than travel to the state's media center in ABQ.

It should work out as all the ABQ TV stations will do remotes from the hotel. She could also get good El Paso TV by staying in Cruces. Besides, tonight's TV coverage will be cursory. There won't be a lot of media opportunities outside of the victory or concession speech.

Some might say that Martinez is also being kept out of the ABQ media spotlight to manage risk. Her handlers tried to keep her away from the press when Sarah Palin endorsed her in ABQ. A faux pax on her part tonight could mar the opening days of her candidacy. A mistake in far away Las Cruces would receive much less of the spotlight than here where the lights burn much brighter.

But the main reason Susana will shun the metro is her fall strategy--bolster turnout in the south and rural areas where conservatives dominate. That's similar to what President Bush did, in 2004, when he carried the state over John Kerry.

Don't worry about Diane Denish getting her share of exposure tonight. Her team will ensure the Light Guv takes to the podium or gives interviews timed for the critical 10 p.m. news celebrating her nomination as the 2010 Democratic gubernatorial standard-bearer.

The Dems will be gathered at ABQ's downtown Doubletree Hotel.

ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE
We're on the beat

Join us tonight for all the results on KANW 89.1 FM beginning at 6:30 p.m. This is our 22nd year on the public radio station and we're looking forward to a fun night. We'll have early results from key precincts and lots of analysis and interviews. You can listen to the live broadcast here.

Joining us this year are ABQ GOP state Rep. Larry Larranaga and former GOP state Rep. Greg Payne. Ex-NM Dem Party chairman John Wertheim will join with fellow Dem Lenton Malry. Our other election veterans include Republican Bruce Donisthorpe and Steve Cabiedes who will help coordinate the returns.

The early and absentee vote from Bernalillo County should come in shortly after the polls close at 7 which should give us major clues on the course the evening will take.

Public radio coverage of Primary 2010 is made possible this year by ABQ Economic Development, The Garrity Group, Serrano and Sons, Constructors, Cordova Public Relations and PNM.

BERRY VS. SWISSTACK

How come ABQ Mayor RJ Berry can balance his city's budget without resorting to a tax increase while in Rio Rancho Mayor Tom Swisstack, city manager James Jimenez and the city council have already resorted to a quarter cent hike in the gross receipts tax? Berry and the ABQ council opted for pay cuts that amounted to 1.5 percent across the board and unpaid holidays for the budget year that starts July 1. In Rio Rancho, they are cutting salaries by one per cent and also adopting some unpaid holidays, but still taxes are going up.

The Rio Rancho tax hike will bring in $700,000 next fiscal year. The city also raised traffic fines and is going to install the controversial red-light cameras to raise another half-million a year.

Jimenez said tough times call for tough decisions. But these seem to be decisions that pass the buck to the taxpayer and spare the government class. Rio Rancho's gross receipts tax will now approach 7.5% on January 1st. That is a tax that hits the lowest paid the most and is also not good for business development.

Maybe ABQ will need a tax increase as this recession rolls on, but before it goes there the mayor and council are first looking to trim the scope of government to fit a new era. Rio Rancho might want to pay attention.

AMICI ELECTION DAY SPECIAL

Here's a good Election Day deal from one of our sponsors. Amici restaurant at 4243 Montgomery NE is offering a 20 percent discount on their menu selections all day Tuesday, June 1--Primary Day. Just mention that you heard about the discount on this blog or drop the name of Dan Silva, the former state representative who co-owns the popular Italian eatery.

Dan adds that in addition to the discount, Amici will also provide free delivery on June 1 to candidates' campaign headquarters or your own Election Night party. So make your plans today (884-9900).

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Posted by: Joe Monahan / Tuesday, June 01, 2010

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