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Friday, August 06, 2010Friday New Mexico Blogging: The Latest Susana TV, How To Chop The State Budget And Some Bottom Lines From Jay Leno Like Diane Denish, Susana Martinez's latest TV spot has the candidate carry the ball for the thirty seconds. Both women are trying to make an emotional connection with voters. Republican Martinez, the Dona Ana County District Attorney, chooses as her latest subject the notorious Baby Brianna murder case which she prosecuted. She says:Baby Brianna was five months old when she died..she was beaten to death. We had to fight for those kids that were killed this way so we went to the Legislature...to make it a life sentence and we succeeded... Democrats point out that while Martinez lobbied for the tougher sentencing it was passed by the Democratic Legislature with State Senator Mary Jane Garcia of Las Cruces as the sponsor. The TV consultants for both camps are thinking similarly. As with the Denish ad, the Martinez spot uses gentle piano music in the background to evoke the desired emotion. (Maybe it will help calm the nerves of voters rattled over the in the dump economy.) This is a softer, more intimate side of Martinez than we have seen on TV screens. The spot seems to be aimed at helping her with female voters where she has lagged and which is shaping up as a battleground demographic in this hotly contested Guv race. ETHICS HIT Martinez has been running on what seems like "an all ethics all the time" platform, but that can cut both ways. The Dona Ana County DA is taking this hit: The office of Doña Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez bought more than $60,000 in office supplies from a home-based company owned by one of her top deputies and political ally. There was no contract or competitive bidding process that covered the purchases from 2003 to 2005, and a former state auditor questions whether state law was followed. But Martinez, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, said the arrangement was legal, had approval from two state agencies and saved the taxpayers money. SOUTHERN ACTION The first TV in the southern congressional race featuring Republican Steve Pearce and incumbent Dem US Rep. Harry Teague doesn't come from the candidates, but from a third party. The Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund has launched a negative TV hit on Pearce who is seen as the front runner in the early going. The ad calls into question Pearce's ethics Pearce's camp snapped back: The Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund, an extreme group dedicated to passing cap and trade began its payback to Harry Teague for his support of the job-killing cap and trade bill. As the press has reported in other states, DOWF knowingly makes false statements and is now doing so here. IT'S MARSHALL CANDELARIA From Washington: U.S. Senators Jeff Bingaman and Tom Udall applauded the Senate’s approval of Conrad Candelaria as U.S. Marshal for the District of New Mexico. Candelaria retired earlier this year after 25 years of service at the Albuquerque Police Department. He rose through the ranks at APD, retiring from the position of senior commander of the Southwest Area Command. Candelaria is a graduate of the University of New Mexico, where he is a part-time criminal justice instructor. THE CHOPPING BLOCK  Aren't some government services more important than others? That's a question in the aftermath of the news that Governor Big Bill is planning "across-the-board" cuts to balance the state budget for the current year. Richard Anklam, president of the non-profit, nonpartisan NM Tax Research Institute, blogs in with this:Across the board cuts may be necessary in a crisis but result in indiscriminate damage to fat, flesh and bone. Who’s in the best position to determine what works well, and what doesn’t? What programs and services are most necessary and which ones aren’t? In the business world that would be the CEO. Here it would be the governor. He’s in a remarkable place to step up and exhibit real leadership at a time when there are no political consequences. Will he, or simply allow the problem to get bigger and more painful for the next governor and legislature to deal with? The Legislature passed the budget-cutting buck to the Guv, giving him the unprecedented power to cut state spending without their approval. But experts emailing in say the Guv has no choice but to apply the spending cuts across the board because the Legislature mandated that the cuts be done that way. ANOTHER ANGLE We've been in this budget crisis for two years now. ABQ Dem State Senator Tim Eichenberg, chairman of the Legislature's Government Restructuring Task Force told us he is hopeful that it will come with proposals for reform and cost savings that prioritize government programs, not treat them all equally as is done when across-the-board budget cuts are applied. That task force, in its first recommendation said the racing and gaming commissions should be merged. They said that would save $1.4 million a year. It's a humble start on what will be a long journey. EXACT DATES  We blogged that there has been no GOP secretary of state since the 1920's. A reader writes that E. A. Perrault, a Republican, was elected in 1928 and served through 1930. So we should have said--as we normally do in this matter--that no Republican has been elected SOS since the 1920's.And differing numbers. Senator Bingaman says NM would receive $126 million in Medicaid money under legislation expected to soon win congressional approval. An initial figure had it at $104 million. A separate measure would pump $65 million into the state's public schools which could mean avoiding teacher layoffs at APS--at least for a while. THE BOTTOM LINES From Jay Leno: We want to start off by saying happy birthday to President Barack Obama. He is...49, which is eight points higher than his approval rating.... If you would like to get him a gift, he's registered at Bed, Bath, and Blame it on Bush. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Thanks for stopping by this week. Email your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Thursday, August 05, 2010Campaign Mood: Dems Morose; R's Buoyant, Plus: News & Analysis From Indian Country Election; Impact On NM Guv Race? And: State Budget Chopping Democrats are morose and Republicans are buoyant. That's a generalization but it best sums up the prevailing mood at this still early date in the 2010 Guv campaign.There has been no public polling on the race between Dem Diane Denish and Republican Susana Martinez since late June (a new one could come at any time) when Martinez was a point ahead, but R's are floating rumors that Susana's internal numbers are much better. Of course, internal numbers can be floated to raise badly needed campaign cash. Still, the current email is running along these lines: Can't they see the tidal wave from the top of the Tram? It's difficult for experts to understand what's going on out there--the people with pitchforks are coming to get them--French Revolution style. That missive was in part a reaction to our Alligators making Denish a slight betting favorite over Martinez. While the most confident R's see a tidal wave and this Guv race already in the bag, the Gators see it as more fluid and leaning slightly Dem because of the state's basic political nature. NO PANIC If Denish is freaking out over the unsettled atmosphere and polling rumors, she is not showing it. Her latest TV spot released Wednesday continues to show Di as a cool cucumber--and with no direct attack on Martinez. In the ad titled, "What Really Matters," she takes to the screen and says: ...Even while my opponent attacks me, I'll stay focused on what really matters--fighting for you, your family and New Mexico's future. In the new ad Denish cites her work "taking on" predatory lending and for expanding pre-K education. The Dems, say veteran analyst Steve Cabiedes (once a Green now a Dem), are getting closer to what their core message needs to be--that times are hard and that Denish recognizes it and is willing to be on the side of regular families. Gone is the talk of business tax breaks and the like. Cabiedes still sees Denish positioned and sees no reason for panic "as long as they do the work." Denish recites her copy to a background of soothing piano music. It is part of her continuing effort to build up her favorable ratings. She made a brief foray into hard-hitting negative ads immediately after the June primary, but has since taken the positive road. If Martinez's latest spot accusing Denish of abusing the state jet and using stimulus funds for Christmas cards is causing heavy damage, you wouldn't know it by watching Denish's ads. STEPHANIE, SUSANA & DI  Former NM Secretary of State Stephanie Gonzales says she is not supporting GOP Guv nominee Susana Martinez, despite the campaign listing a Stephanie Gonzales as a member of "Democrats for Martinez."Gonzalez checked in from Santa Fe to say: I am 100 percent with Diane and have been working my tail off to get her elected She is a native New Mexican and a class act who always stands up for our families and is the best candidate to be our next governor. Nobody contacted me from the Martinez campaign and this is false information. We left a message for Martinez campaign manager Ryan Cangliosi asking if there were another Stephanie Gonzales who is also a Democrat who the campaign was referencing. We did not hear back. We noted in that Wednesday blog that there were hard feelings between Denish and Gonzales following a bitter primary between the two years ago for the Dem nomination for lieutenant governor, but that rift appears to have mended. There has not been a Republican secretary of state in New Mexico since the 1920's, so a Gonzales endorsement of Martinez--even if it was due to a long ago rivalry--could be seen as a political coup. A BIG BREAK
There will soon be $126 million less for New Mexico lawmakers to worry about. The US Senate is well on its way to approving the additional funding for the Medicaid program. The House will go back next week to finish the job. Without the money, the state budget shortfall for the current fiscal year would skyrocket even further. INDIAN COUNTRY  We have some expert analysis for you on how the Navajo presidential election--to be held the same day as the NM balloting--could possibly help the Dems. The primary was held Tuesday. Now to Indian Country and an Alligator report:The news from Tuesday's Navajo Nation primary election is that the winners could help New Mexico Democrats in November. The unofficial winners are State Sen. Lynda Lovejoy of Crownpoint (with more than 16,000 votes) and Navajo Nation Vice President Ben Shelly of Thoreau (with more than 7,000 votes). Both are of New Mexico and were chosen in a field of 12 candidates. Both Lovejoy and Shelly are Democrats from McKinley County and now move on to the November election. If enough voter interest is drummed up in this presidential race, this could increase turnout in both the tribal and state elections, which are held on the same day. Navajos generally vote Democratic and it could be a record turn-out if enough interest is garnered with what could possibly be the first woman elected to the Navajo presidency. Lovejoy bested her last attempt at this office by more than 6,000 votes; this is attributed to the disqualification of Navajo Nation President Joe Shirley, who beat Lovejoy four years ago. Shirley attempted a third term, but that was ruled out by the Navajo Nation Supreme Court which cited term limits. McKinley County has the heaviest concentration of Navajo voters. Sixty-five percent of the approximately 36,000 registered voters there are Dems. NO SURE THING Mayor Berry  ABQ Republican Mayor RJ Berry is learning he can't count on Republican on the city council to vote in lock step. The R's control the nine member panel for the first time in years, with five Republicans and four Dems holding forth. But Berry this week lost a big battle over a proposed contract for a labor negotiator with GOP Councilors Winter and Lewis joined with the Dems to reject the deal on a 6 to 3 vote.Earlier, Lewis bolted on the nomination of David Campbell as chief administrative officer and Republican Councilor Harris has expressed concern over how Berry is handling budget cuts when it comes to the city work force. The council and mayor's office is officially nonpartisan, and while that hasn't been much more than a fig leaf in recent years, the mayor is discovering that this council--now with a number of veteran members--does not roll over and play Rover on his command. BERRY AND THE DEMS And the NM Dem legislative leadership is taking note of city politics. House Speaker Ben Lujan and Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez want Berry to reconsider the salary cuts for police and firefighters and instead implement furloughs as requested by unions for those employees. From their letter to the mayor: It is our understanding that the concessions proposed by the Albuquerque Police and Fire Fighters will result in greater savings than requested by your administration. We urge you to accept their offers to ensure the City meets its balanced budget mandate and honor all other obligations under the current collective bargaining agreements. If their offer truly resolves the immediate fiscal year's financial issues, as the City Council has indicated it does, then we urge you, in good faith, to revisit the Memorandums of Understanding to facilitate their concessions for fiscal relief... The firefighters are in court over the pay cuts. WELCOME ABOARD  We welcome aboard Carroll Strategies as a blog sponsor. We asked them to tell our readers a bit about themselves:Carroll Strategies is a full-service PR, advertising, and communications firm. We create public relations and advertising campaigns. We're experts at web site design and marketing. We manage crisis situations and repair reputations. We provide top-level online services. We create quality videos and films. We are, in short, a highly experienced communications and strategy company that uses the newest and most powerful selling tools to help you win. The company president, Tom Carroll, is no stranger to politics. He served as an executive director of the state Republican Party and as a campaign consultant for a variety of political candidates. You can read his "Strategy of the Week" here. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Want to get in on the fun? Email us about advertising here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, August 04, 2010Dems For Martinez: No Heavyweights Apply, Plus: King To Call Out Chandler, And: 90 Years Old And Living La Politica Susana Martinez's recent announcement of "Democrats for Martinez" received hardly any news coverage. And with good reason. There were no heavy political hitters on the list. In filling out the group the Martinez camp also came with some controversial names in Democratic circles.For example, former state representative and ABQ attorney Robert Aragon has been popping up as a "Democrat" for a variety of GOP candidates, including Martinez and congressional hopeful Jon Barela. But Robert was stripped of his title as ward chair by Dems and even voted for McCain over Obama. Then there's former NM Court of Appeals Judge Ira Robinson who is also a former Dem Bernalillo County district attorney as well as an ex-chairman of the Bernalillo County Dem party. He also endorsed Martinez, but Ira was forced to resign from his judgeship, in 2008, rather than face a trial on misconduct charges. Not a lot of credibility there for Martinez, who is also the Dona Ana County DA. The point being that there are few, if any, prominent Democrats abandoning Diane Denish for Martinez. And we don't see any big name R's going for Di. POKING PELOSI  The aforementioned Barela came with his first media of the campaign, but it isn't paid TV. In response to US House speaker Nancy Pelosi appearing at a Santa Fe fund-raiser Tuesday, Barela came with a video on his Web site blasting the speaker and his Dem for the ABQ congressional seat--Martin Heinrich.Our Alligators broke the news here last week that Speaker Nancy would be here to raise cash for congressional Dems at the home of well-heeled trial lawyer Stephen Durkovich. Barela has received some good news from that recent SurveyUSA poll that showed him actually beating incumbent Heinrich 51% to 45%. Real Clear Politics even moved the contest to the "toss-up" category because of that survey. Our pros think it's too soon to change the lean Democrat rating. They want to see another survey before going there, pointing out that SurveyUSA is alone in putting Jon in front. If we were him we would hurry up and raise all the money we could from those favorable numbers--just in case. VISITING SUSANA
An R working to get a national name, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, will campaign in NM for Martinez soon. He is a likely candidate for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination who is helping a variety of candidates in the hope the favor will some day be returned. Martinez has already had potential 2012 GOP prez contender Sarah Palin campaign on her behalf. We think Susana's head is with Tim, but her heart is with Sarah after she helped to pushed her over the top in that GOP Guv primary. WONDER IF... We wonder if Susana's stance against public school vouchers will cause her any grief among Christian groups that strongly advocate such vouchers? They also vote heavy R. Martinez's new position on the controversial vouchers came to light this week. She had previously told campaign audiences she supported them. IT'S A BIG STATE  Note this headline from the Diane Denish PR gang:Diane Denish to Outline High Tech & Renewable Energy Jobs Plan in Southern Dona Ana County Today... This is the second time Di has outlined this plan. She did the same in ABQ last week. Why? Because southern Dona Ana County is not in the ABQ TV market. It is served by El Paso TV and the El Paso Times as well as the Las Cruces Sun-News. Besides media events, the Guv campaigns have to sock away money for campaign ads on El Paso TV. AG ACTION We ran into Attorney General Gary King the other day and not surprisingly he expressed confidence about his re-election campaign. But he also had a message for his aggressive Republican rival--Clovis area District Attorney Matt Chandler who has been beating up on King's four year record as AG. "Matt has a record, too. And you're going to be hearing about it," King teased. Sounds like statewide newcomer Matt may have to learn to take some punches, not just throw them. THE LONG WAIT Imogene Lindsay  Like many New Mexico women Imogene Lindsay awaits November 2 when the glass ceiling on the state's governor's office is broken and the first woman in history is elected to that high office. The difference is that "Gene" has been waiting longer than most. The lifelong Democratic Party activist turned 90 a few days ago and was feted at a backyard party at her ABQ NE Heights home.Over the years that backyard saw its share of summer fun for her family, but it was also central to New Mexico political life when Gene's late husband, Bert Lindsay, held forth in the 60's, 70's and 80's as a key Democratic fund-raiser and operative. Ted Kennedy and George McGovern were among those who nursed libations with the Lindsay's in their homey backyard overlooking Sandia High. Gene was more than a hostess. She was tapped by Governor Anaya to head up the state labor department and became part of his cabinet. She succeeded Dan Lopez in the position who today is president of New Mexico Tech and was among those on hand to celebrate her 90th. Lindsay told me she cast here first vote in 1948 for Progressive Henry Wallace who was one of four major presidential candidates that year. "What, you didn't vote for Democrat FDR in '44?" "Let's just say I forgot," she quipped. Lindsay's backyard continues as a political playground. The day before her birthday party Diane Denish was there seeking votes and perhaps some inspiration from the generation that came before. Even at 90, there is no let up. "I read your blog every day," she informed, reminding us that the lure of La Politica is indeed timeless. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Tuesday, August 03, 2010Susana Takes Center Lane On Education; Move To Middle On Key Issue Marks New Chapter Of Guv Run, Plus: We're Following The Money And The TV Ads Susana Martinez is starting to show some flexibility, moving to the middle on the critical issue of education and signaling that while she is still primarily a conservative candidate, she is not bereft of political pragmatism.It's been a question all summer: would the Dona Ana County DA stay pinned closely to the right, or would she start throwing bones to the middle where New Mexican gubernatorial elections are traditionally decided? With her pledge not to cut public school spending and now her switch on the issue of school vouchers (like Diane Denish she is not going to support them) Martinez seems to be recognizing that she is trailing by double-digits among female voters with whom the education issue especially resonates. If she can start cutting that leg out from under Di, she can make an upward move. First the news quotes then the analysis: The public school budget: Both candidates said they support higher pay for teachers but only if salaries were linked to student performance. Neither would allow education cuts in the state budget. Now the vouchers: Martinez said she would not support school vouchers in the traditional sense, which are promoted in the Florida system, but she would be willing to give tax credits to businesses that donate money to private school scholarship programs. Denish said there are already plenty of philanthropic organizations that provide scholarships, and the state's money should remain with public schools and charter schools in the system. To make her move to the middle Martinez has had to abandon the views of the GOP legislative leadership and her own Republican Party. The Republican legislative leadership is calling for across-the-board cuts in state education spending to bring the budget into balance. But Denish--and now Martinez--wants public schools spared from the budget knife. In the last session of the Legislature, the schools were nicked with a small cut, but other agencies suffered more as Big Bill and the Dems worked to spare the public schools from the worst pain. But now Richardson appears ready to go for an across-the-board cut in all state agencies, including public education. Public schools may be subjected as soon as September to a three percent cut, a reduction State Senate GOP leader Ingle says must be done--but not R Martinez. From an Ingle news release earlier this year: Nobody likes having to do this, but we have to remember there had been very large increases to education and teacher salaries in recent years. Senator Ingle is proposing an amendment to the House’s budget will that would save the state $300 million in costs by reducing state spending across the board by 5.7%. Martinez's hands-off approach to the school budget and her newly found opposition to vouchers could temper some of the fiercest criticism of her candidacy and provide her a gateway to moderate, undecided voters she probably needs to win. POLITICAL IMPACT  Political pros see the move favorably. They think the Martinez camp may have become too much of a one trick pony--all corruption all the time.University of New Mexico poly sci professor Lonna Atkeson is among the doubting Thomases, saying: The economy is so much more important than unsubstantiated claims of corruption. I think you need something more specific... But Martinez has not come with any specific corruption charges on Denish (no, $794 in office Xmas cards don't count and neither does hopping an occasional ride on the state jet). The GOP rant against corruption taps into generalized voter angst and moves Martinez forward with her base voters, but it is in the economy and education--the meat and potatoes issues--where the real gravy awaits. Martinez's media message is still portraying a right-wing and anger based candidacy. But it would seem only a matter of time before the new Martinez mantras make their way onto the airwaves--if she truly wants to win. THE NEW POSITION The Denish camp isn't asleep at the switch, and they can see Susana's switcheroo clearly as a red caboose coming down the track. Di came with this statement: When it comes to funding our public schools, the choice couldn't be clearer. While I have pledged to fully fund our public schools and make them stronger, Susana Martinez wants to take money out of our public schools and give it to wealthy private schools. As much as Susana Martinez would like to abandon this unpopular position less than three months before the election, New Mexico’s parents, teachers and students won’t be fooled. At an Otero County Republican forum in April, Martinez said: “...School choice is very important--parents having a say in whether or not they’re going to have their child attend the local school that may be failing their child--or if they get to receive a tax credit (or) voucher--whatever it is that child should have in order to select a charter school (or) a Christian school...whatever kind of school that parent decides... Martinez will have to take that hit, move on and start cultivating votes with her new and more moderate position on education. Now what about the economy, Susana? Any flips for us there? DI & SUSANA DEBATE
 Soon we will get to see Susana and Diane go at each other together for the first time. Here's the news:Albuquerque Public Schools will sponsor (a) debate on public education between gubernatorial candidates Diane Denish and Susana Martinez at 6 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 19, in the performing arts center at Eldorado High School. The debate, to be moderated by APS Superintendent Winston Brooks, will be the first between two women seeking the state’s top office. Questions for the candidates, will be solicited ahead of time from members of the APS Board of Education, its leadership team and the community. Invited guests will include APS students, teachers, administrators and the Board of Education among others. We imagine that first debate will be broadcast live by KANW 89.1 FM radio which is licensed to APS. Broadcast TV debates will come later in the cycle. THE NEWS BACKDROP We continue to note the positive news backdrop for Martinez. The news is negative. The latest on state education performance, released Monday, plays into her hands. An excerpt: Nearly 78 percent of New Mexico schools did not make adequate yearly progress according to a report released Monday by the New Mexico Public Education Department. AD WATCH  Martinez's latest TV ad faulting Denish and in heavy rotation, doesn't stand up to the ad watchers in the neutral corner at FactCheckorg:What of the ad’s overarching claim that Richardson and Denish "wasted millions" running the state? That claim is unsupported. Even if every dollar that Denish spent using a state plane could be called wasteful, that still only amounts to $170,000. Add in--for the sake of argument--all $225,000 that Denish’s office received in federal stimulus money, and the total still comes to $395,000. That’s a pretty far cry from "millions." When we asked the Martinez campaign where its "millions" claim comes from, a spokesman responded, saying: Martinez spokesman: The Richardson/Denish administration increased spending by over $2 BILLION. The jet itself cost taxpayers $5.5 million. The state used to own a King Air before the Richardson/Denish administration decided to upgrade to a Jet. Even if those figures are accurate, the Martinez campaign hasn’t shown that they were "waste." Martinez’s ad, as aired, is a long way from making its case on that score. FOLLOWING THE MONEY  The Wall Street Journal takes a look at some of the super-sized campaign donations received by Denish and Martinez.Denish has received $100,000 from...the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees—and $80,000 from the women's political-action committee Emily's List... Martinez has accepted the largest individual donation in state history—$350,000 from Texas home builder Bob Perry, plus an additional $100,000 from his wife, Doylene... Perry is one of the Republican Party's top donors and since 2004 has given at least $15 million to the party and to conservative groups, including millions to bankroll the "Swift Boat" ads attacking 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry. Perry's spokesman...said the developer had no business interests in New Mexico and no plans to expand there. Perry...backed Martinez because he saw her as "a true champion of ethics reform and job creation..." Martinez said she was "honored and appreciative" of that support—then stressed that she would be beholden to no one. "As governor, you set the tone of what's acceptable," she said. "It's not about political donations." BOOSTING SANTA FE Fox News takes a look at Santa Fe and likes what it sees. Some ideas for your next visit... THE BOTTOM LINES  A couple of readers noted we had the wrong payoff for a theoretical bet on Diane Denish Monday. Our oddsmakers made Di a narrow 6 to 5 favorite which means a $5 dollar bet on Denish would pay $9 and come change, not the $10 and change we blogged in our first draft...From Las Cruces, Garrey Carruthers, former NM Governor ('83-87) and now dean of the College of Business at New Mexico State University, writes: I noted in one of your recent pieces that you wondered if regulators were aware that FSNM stock (First State Bancorp) had been delisted. We have been in touch with the regulators on a very regular basis as we work on our recapitalization plan. They have approved the plan and we are working diligently to see if we can make it work. Thanks for your interest in the bank. As you may know, I was recently elected to serve as the Chairman of the FSNM holding company board. We are working hard to insure a turnaround. FSNM stock was delisted from the NASDAQ exchange because its price became too low. The bank holding company based in NM lost more than $110 million in 2009 and continues to bleed cash. mostly because of real estate loans gone sour. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, August 02, 2010Susana Took June; Di Won July; Our Oddsmakers Now Make Denish 6 to 5 Fave For November, Plus: The Economy And The Campaign, And: No Steele Stomach After two full months of Campaign 2010 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Diane Denish is a narrow 6 to 5 favorite to take the prize in November over GOP hopeful Susana Martinez. That's the latest from a consensus of Senior Alligators, Wall-Leaners, Worry Warts, Hangers-On and assorted political junkies we've consulted. Surprised? Read on...Denish remains the betting favorite because of the state's overwhelming Democratic voter registration. Dems are at 50%, R's are 32% and independents 15%. Another reason is her substantial cash account--over $2 million--ensuring she will have the resources to take the race to the finish no matter what. The odds mean that a $5 bet on the Martinez horse would return $11, including the original $5 bet. A $5 bet on the Denish horse would return $9 and some change, including the original bet. The month-to-month battle looks like this. Martinez won June as Denish came with attack TV that did not stand up to scrutiny and seemed out of place so soon after the primary. Martinez also enjoyed momentum from her impressive primary win over four GOP opponents on June 1. Denish carried July by getting on track with a more positive message and as the novelty of Martinez began to ebb somewhat. Denish is being dumped on in elite Dem circles but outwardly her campaign has held its ground and made fewer mistakes than Martinez. (We covered that extensively and exclusively for you in our July 12th blog.) Martinez is competitive because her strong anti-corruption message and tough-as-nails stand on immigration has already consolidated the GOP and much of the conservative independent vote. Her status as the first female Hispanic Guv nominee has also helped to invigorate the candidacy. And perhaps foremost, the lousy economy has sent voters looking at the R alternative. Now we have turned the calender to August and the race is being labeled a toss-up. The latest poll released June 23 from the Republican firm Magellan Strategies confirms that assessment, showing Martinez with a one point lead--44% to 43%. But the betting crowd wants odds to take Susana for the win because they are looking ahead--not at the here and now. Besides those daunting registration numbers, they wonder about her cash reserves. She appears to have been outspent on July TV. No public reports are due until mid-September. So what are the odds that the political handicappers will be confounded more than once in the weeks ahead as the race shifts around? That bet seems like a sure thing. STILL THE ECONOMY?  As we noted, Martinez has gotten major mileage on the corruption issue, but we don't know yet if that will be enough to take her over the top.Veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff says voters are so accustomed to corruption headlines that they sigh with resignation and fret "that both sides do it." That would indicate Martinez would need the economic issue to put her over the top with the undecided block. She has some fresh ammo in that regard. KRQE-TV comes with a report that shows how Big Bill has announced thousands of jobs coming to the state, but they never materialized. The key stats: Since taking office in 2003 the Richardson administration announced at least 63 businesses starting up in New Mexico or moving to the state with 50 or more jobs each. Today only 37 of those companies actually have employees in the state. From 2003 through 2009, of the 17,060 jobs the Richardson administration said were coming to New Mexico, 6,276 jobs exist today. That sounds like a ready-made campaign ad for Martinez. WHERE THE JOBS ARE Where are all the jobs? Well, not all of them are with the Federal government, but take a gander at these numbers we found in a real estate brokerage newsletter. In addition to the 4,800 military personnel employed at Kirtland Air Force Base, the facility employs another 35,690 civilian employees and contractors, including the 8,400 working for Sandia National Laboratories. That's 40,490 jobs tied directly to Kirtland and Sandia, and that doesn't even count the dozens of contractors and their employees. The state reports that the current ABQ area work force is about 370,000 so the direct jobs at Kirltand and Sandia represent 11 percent of our entire employment base. We don't have the payroll numbers, but with many of those salaries well above average, the base payroll has to comprise well over 11% of the metro's total. Then there's the construction and maintenance money for all the state's bases: U.S. Senators Jeff Bingaman and Tom Udall today reported that legislation moving through Congress contains more than $292 million to support New Mexico’s military installations and National Guard facilities. The Senate’s version of the fiscal year 2011 Military Construction, Veterans Affairs and Related Agencies (MilCon/VA) Appropriations bill has cleared the Senate Appropriations Committee and is now ready for full Senate consideration. A number of New Mexicans are uncomfortable with the huge military and nuclear industry here, but all can agree that ABQ would basically blow away into Texas if KAFB were to ever close. BACK ON THE TRAIL...  Despite setbacks in attracting private sector jobs, Dem guv nominee Denish slogs on. Her latest on the topic is headlined:Denish: New Mexico's Recovery Will be Fueled by High-Tech, Renewable Energy Jobs That may be true long term--very long term--but technology jobs peaked long ago in New Mexico. Intel in Rio Rancho once employed 5,500; now only about 3,000 work there. As for renewable energy, thousands of jobs in that sector will not be created in the next four or five years to replace those lost. Most renewable projects employ in the dozens, not the hundreds. The solar projects that have come here and claimed they would hire hundreds if not thousands have all crashed and burned due to Chinese competition or lack of financing or both. Has Denish and Democratic policy wonks absorbed that messsage yet? Denish's proposals to build on the health care industry may offer more hope for large-scale job creation. DR. NO WEIGHS IN Meanwhile, State Senator John Arthur "Dr. No" Smith, who has done yeoman's work in pointing out time and again that the sky really is falling when it comes to the state budget and economy, has some thoughts on job growth. But it's probably best that the Deming powerhouse stick to the budget. His proposal for getting the state's economy moving is to reduce regulation of the copper and oil and gas industries. But it is the worldwide bear market causing a demand crash, not regulation, that is causing the loss of jobs in our extractive industries. (That's especially true when it comes to natural gas which generates the most energy royalty money for the state). When oil, gas and copper prices recover so will a large segment of the state economy. Will we ever again have annual surpluses in the hundreds of millions because of energy royalties? Not likely. NO STEELE STOMACH Martinez & Chairman Steele  Was it red or green that did in national GOP Chairman Micheal Steele? That was the question in the wake of his Thursday ABQ visit on behalf of Susana Martinez. Steele said he came down with food poisoning after attending the fund-raising reception held on behalf of Martinez at the posh home of her running mate--GOP Lt. Gov. nominee John Sanchez. (We've posted an exclusive photo from the event where press coverage was prohibited). The chairman cancelled his appearance before a group of black journalists to take time to recover. But Steele says he did not eat at the Sanchez party and won't disclose where he did dine during his visit. Our GOP Alligators at the event inform that the catered food served was Mexican fare, including, of course, red and green chile. Judging by the look on Steele's face in this pic, he may have already been stricken before getting to the Sanchez home, but we can't be certain.This calls for investigative reporting or blogging or something. Was the chairman a victim of a Democratic-inspired chile poisoning plot? Will the Dona Ana County District Attorney's office play the lead role in the probe of this mishap? Where exactly did the chairman eat and when did he eat it? Will the chairman stand for public questioning on this matter? Will New Mexico's chile, the possible culprit in the Steele poisoning, be cleared of this besmirching of its reputation? Or will this incident lead to a collapse in chile demand, further damaging the state's economy and costing Susana Martinez the election?? Inquiring minds want to know! This is the home of New Mexico politics. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author
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