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Thursday, October 07, 2010On The Trail In These Critical Early October Days; Onslaught Of New TV As Time To Change Perceptions & Polls Narrows; Continuing Coverage & Analysis The campaigns are busy, firing their heavy artillery now as they have just days to change perceptions and the polls. The in-person early voting begins in earnest in the key ABQ metro Oct. 16. On that day alone thousands will cast ballots in an election that my experts say will draw about 600,000 New Mexicans to the polls. With that as the backdrop, let's hop on our ponies and onto the crowded campaign trail...The campaign dug up old video of Diane Denish and turned her words of praise of Governor Bill against her. As she cites accomplishments of Richardson the screen shows graphics detailing the opposite result. For example, when Di says into the camera: "Governor Richardson’s work is something to brag about," the graphic shouts "Pay to Pay scandals" and "50,000 drivers licenses to illegals." The ad concludes with Di saying: "Please join me in supporting Bill Richardson." All along the Martinez camp has strived to make this election about Richardson, whose popularity languishes around the 30 percent level. This ad continues that work, but letting Denish make the case is quite devilish and effective. Di's corner sniped back: It’s no surprise that Republican Susana Martinez’s new attack ad uses Bush-era footage given that her economic policies mimic the failed policies of George W. Bush. Martinez, like Bush, will seek to empower powerful interests at the expense of New Mexico families. Besides the softer touch, unlike past Martinez attacks this ad contains no apparent factual errors for the papers and Factcheck.org to go after. How about that? BRIAN'S SONG Brian Colón  Meanwhile, the Denish camp comes with Di running mate Brian Colón to make the case against the El Paso born and raised Martinez as a Texan--or "Tejana"--who doesn't understand the culture and families of New Mexicans. Here's the spot.The "Martinez is a Texan" angle is worth something, but the problem is that Colón is not a native New Mexican Hispanic. He is of Puerto Rican descent. He was born in New York and came to Valencia County as a small child. This was a major point of contention in the Dem Light Guv primary when Colón beat Hispanic New Mexicans Lawrence Rael, Joe Campos and Jerry Ortiz y Pino. Denish never did take the bait to weigh in for one of those candidates. Colon was never considered her favorite, but she decided to stay out of the fray. Brian's close ties to Richardson were of concern, and they could surface again if the TV spot he cuts riles the R's. Why didn't Di's camp use folks from up north to level the charge? Also, Colón does not appear comfortable in this spot, raising painful memories of his poor performance on CNN during the 2008 NM presidential caucus. This would not seem to be the polished, well thought out effort Denish needs to catch the front-running Martinez. THE POLLING Di's camp came with an internal poll that was taken Sept. 30 thru October 4 and paints the Guv race as a much tighter affair than the ABQ Journal survey released Sunday. Di's pollsters have it 49 to 46 for Susana. The Journal had it 49 to 42 when leaners were counted and 47 to 41 without the leaners. THE INFIGHTING  Di's camp say Martinez's negatives are on the rise, but a vehement argument is raging in the elite circles of Democratic political analysts and consultants over Denish's strategy.The lieutenant governor's campaign has long assumed a conservative electorate would decide the race and she has fought the campaign on that ground--clinging to center-right positions. But Martinez is the real deal conservative and has thwarted Denish. Martinez has consolidated the conservative vote and Denish has failed to ignite the large liberal Dem base. Those disagreeing with the assumptions of the Denish turnout model argue that the candidate now has only days left to make a turn and rouse the Democrat base so the conservative vote is watered down. That means getting people to the polls who might be hard to get there and that you have previously assumed won't vote. We have yet to see a strategic shift in the Denish campaign since that deadly Journal poll because her camp appears to believe that turnout can't be altered--that they must play with a conservatively stacked deck and see no need to alter their message. Critics of this say the Denish DC consultants were scared senseless by the conservative turn this year of the Virgina and New Jersey Guv races. They are pounding the table that the race here is about to be placed out of reach if that fear prevails and a much more Democratic oriented and populist message is not crafted. Denish's camp is not budging. As usual, someone is going to be wrong. We'll soon know who. SOUTHERN FRYING Now down to the south where we have that hotter than a pepper sprout race for the US House. There is now a polling trend in the southern race and it is toward Republican Steve Pearce. He was up one in Sunday's ABQ Journal poll and in a survey conducted for The Hill, a newspaper in DC, along with a group called America's Natural Gas Alliance, he broadens that lead to four. The Journal had the race 48 for Pearce and 47 for Dem Rep Harry Teague with the Hill putting it 46 to 42 for Pearce. But Teague is still alive. The pollsters reported: The path to victory for Teague could be to tap into undecided voters — 39 percent are Democrats and 21 percent are independents. To do that, he’ll have to overcome a traditional skepticism about one-party control that is causing some undecided voters to say they prefer a divided government. THE POTHOLES  Meantime, both Pearce and Teague are finding plenty of potholes on the campaign trail.We don't think this is Pearce's Macaca moment" but why is the former congressman wading into the "birther movement" that continues to question the citizenship of President Obama? To the details: During a recent town hall meeting, Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.) cast doubt on President Obama's citizenship and said that while the economy should be on the top of Republicans' agenda, he would be "in the fight" if the issue is taken up in Congress. At the Sept. 30 event in Los Lunas, a woman stood up and asked Pearce if he would "be agreeable to subpoenaing and making him show a birth certificate." "Because if he is not eligible, because of everything he signed, every bill he signed, every executive order, his czars, our whole government, everything we're doing is invalid and unconstitutional and illegal," she said, adding, "I just want to know what is your position on Barack Obama if he is in fact a Kenyan-born, Indonesian Muslim. What is your position on all of this?" In his response, Pearce said that were still "significant questions" surrounding the birther issue... Steve went on to make several factual errors about Obama, and there is video of the sorry sight in the link we provided. Not that this is going to take him out in the ultra-conservative south. And Dem Harry Teague is not of a mind to be seen defending Obama under any circumstance. And Pearce will solidify Tea Party type support in the SE with this remark. But Harry might wonder aloud about how Steve Pearce knows so much about the birther movement and whether he knows as much about how to provide jobs for the southern district. HARRY'S HASSLE  While Pearce got his tongue tied up over Obama's birth, Harry keeps getting tied up in knots over how much money he has received from his oil business in recent years and why his company cancelled health insurance for 200 employees while the congressman was doing so well. The latest downer news for Teague came from the pages of Congressional Quarterly under this headline that could soon pop up in a Pearce ad: "Teague Skirts Details About His Income."Rep. Harry Teague, who made millions in the oil industry before coming to Congress, launched a new ad campaign this week claiming he has not “accepted a penny” from his company in 21 months. The ads are part of the New Mexico Democrat’s response to recent criticism from his GOP opponent that he cut health care benefits for his employees while accepting hefty profits. But according to Teague’s personal financial disclosure statement for 2009, his wife, Nancy Teague, who works as an adviser to the company, earned a $120,000 salary from Teaco Energy Services in 2009, the oil services firm Teague founded in 2000. And while Teague, ranked 12th on Roll Call’s 50 Richest Members of Congress list, did not take any money from Teaco in that time, he did make as much as $2 million in income from two other companies he has ownership in. Pearce's first ad on this has been picked at by Teague. Pearce has come with a second one again battering Harry on the issue. The central question lingers and may be scoring points for Pearce. Why did Teague not come to the rescue of his employees and save their health insurance when he was apparently in solid personal financial health? Is this a character issue that could decide this race? Is Pearce breaking into the lead because of it? We don't think there will be a more important week in the contest. THE MONEY GAME The national Dems have put up a $300,000 ad buy for Teague but if he hasn't moved the numbers by the start of the heavy early voting Oct. 16, they will likely be out of here. HEINRICH VS BARELA The Heinrich camp likes this one as it buffs the congressman's law and order credentials, sometimes a vulnerability for a Dem candidate: The Fraternal Order of Police New Mexico (NM FOP), the largest law enforcement organization in the state, announced their endorsement of Martin Heinrich in the race for the First Congressional District of New Mexico seat. The NM FOP chose Heinrich over Republican Jon Barela. Meanwhile, Barela announces he is bringing in former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani for a campaign rally for him next Tuesday, Oct. 12: Bode Aviation Hanger--Inside Atlantic Aviation FBO. 2505 Clark Carr Loop SE, Albuquerque International, Tuesday, 12:00 PM---check in begins at 11:15 AM. Rally $25 per person; Photos and Reception $1000 per person or $1500 per couple. R.S.V.P. to rsvp@jonbarela.com CITY MONEY WATCH The ABQ economy appears to be bumping along the bottom. Tax collections are stabilizing at the new lower levels, but at least they are not plummeting. If the trend continues city employees won't face furloughs or layoffs, but given the shaky state of things we are on a month by month watch. WE HAVE OUR WINNERS  Well, we have an email handle for our first winner--E10Chile--but no first or last name. But that's alright. He sent along his favorite charity--New Mexico Breast Cancer Resources--along with his caption: "Whoa, Joe. Yes, it is a genetically altered watermelon to make it seedless. But no, Mary's hair is freekin' real! And David Hadwiger came with our second winning entry which had us chuckling: I'm not kidding. The voting machine spits out a slice of watermelon after you vote! What a great idea to improve turnout!" David listed Bandalier Elementary School PTA as his charity. Checks will be on their way this week to both charities. Thanks to all who sent us their captions. Voted the best in 2010 by readers of the Alibi and ABQ The Magazine, This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, October 06, 2010Action Seekers Look South; Teague Vs. Pearce Now New Mexico's Headline Race, Plus: Readers Continue Kirtland Debate, And: Our Wednesday Bottom Lines Less than a month to go and early voting is under way so we check in on the conventional wisdom. It has Republican Susana Martinez headed for the Guv's office, Dem Rep. Heinrich winning re-election in ABQ and all the statewide offices going to the Dems.For now, a political junkie looking for excitement looks south. That's where Dem Rep. Harry Teague is putting up a spirited defense against the aggressive challenge of Republican and former southern Congressman Steve Pearce. Teague has come with his response to what could be one of the most deadliest hits of the cycle--that his oil business cancelled health insurance for 200 employees after Teague took $3 million out of the business. The ad sears Harry this way: What kind of man would pocket $3 million but cut off his employees health care four days before Christmas? Teague, now one point behind Pearce in the latest ABQ Journal poll--48 t0 47-- and hoping to stop this ad from turning the race, came with this 30 second retort. He speaks directly into the camera and says: For the last 21 months I haven't accepted a penny from our company...We're in tough times and like a lot of folks we had to make tough choices to keep from laying off 200 people. We made cuts but we kept 200 people working so they could take care of their families. Not bad, Harry. But Pearce's camp points out that Teague did take $3.3 million out of the company in 2008 before he was elected that November, and that leaves open the question why Teague could not have used that money to pay for the insurance. The Politico broke the story back in May. The money lines: In 2008-2009, his holdings in Teaco assets yielded more than $3.3 million in dividend payments and provided him and his wife an additional $255,000-plus in salary from the company, according to his financial disclosure form. The Pearce health insurance spot could be his best bet to take out Teague. Why? Because an ad like that could cost Harry support in Democratic Dona Ana County which will deliver 25 to 30 percent of the district vote. The race is as close as a too-tight swimsuit. That's because in the ABQ Journal poll Teague is leading Pearce in Dona Ana 50 to 40. (The margin of error is nearly nine percent for those county results because of the low number of voters polled). Pearce can afford to lose Dona Ana but not by much. That's why he has another ad up trying to turn back Teague's attack on him over privatizing Social Security. He tries to turn the tables and accuses Teague of endangering the program. That ad, like the one on cancelled health insurance, is also aimed at those Democrats who are keeping Teague in this race. Teague was left for dead earlier this year--his corpse pumped with Republican formaldehyde. But he fights on to the bitter end, forcing Pearce to pull more rabbits out of his hat. The national Dems like what they see. The Pearce camps confirms that the Dems have come with a $300,000 TV and radio hit on Pearce. Somebody put a fresh batch of popcorn in the microwave. This thing is getting good. THE VFW VIEW  You want to get things hopping even more in that southern House race? Start talking about the veterans. Reader Annette Price of La Luz writes:Enclosed is the The Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW) By-Laws; It is a Federal Law the VFW cannot and does not endorse Politicians. Please correct your blog that said Harry Teague was endorsed by the Veterans of Foreign Wars. The picture is the six (6) Veterans that live in Alamogordo that endorsed Harry Teague, as a VFW Political Action (PAC). And Joe Price adds: The Alamogordo newspaper reported: "Teague said he appreciates the VFW's endorsement." The VFW is non-partisan and does not endorse political candidates because it would violate our congressional charter. However, for sake of clarification, the VFW Political Action Committee is a separately incorporated organization that does selectively endorse candidates for the U.S. House and Senate who advocate for our nation’s veterans and for America’s security. As a Vietnam veteran and a lifetime member of VFW Post 7686 I would like to make it clear that the local PAC does not speak for me..I have done my research and I know that the false allegations made by Teague about Steve Pearce’s voting record concerning veterans affairs are just that, false ! I really wish you would correct the statement that Teague was endorsed by the VFW... Okay, Joe, the correction is there. But why is Steve Pearce, a Vietnam veteran who flew cargo planes into the combat zone, not getting this endorsement? Well, Teague has worked hard for it as a member of the House Veterans' Affairs Committee. HEINRICH VS. BARELA The US Chamber of Commerce comes with a $160,000 TV buy for Republican challenger Jon Barela in the ABQ congressional race starting today. That led the campaign of Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich to point out that the Chamber is raising money for its TV ads from the dues of foreign corporations. MARY AND MATT We heard the first media from Secretary of State Mary Herrera this week--a radio spot touting her record. Herrera is seeking a second four year term and has been caught up in a series of controversies. However, her GOP opponent has not done any media yet and insider R's who previously talked of raising big TV money for Dianna are talking about a more humble contribution. Also, Republican land commission candidate Matt Rush is up with a TV bio spot. Dem nominee Ray Powell, Jr. is on radio, but no TV yet. Better get some make-up on, Ray. Matt is looking camera-ready. BAD ADS  The Martinez corruption ads against Diane Denish aren't passing anyone's smell test. The ABQ Journal knocks down the latest one this way:A television ad...implies Denish used her influence as lieutenant governor to move the solar equipment manufacturing company Advent Solar onto land being developed just south of the Albuquerque Sunport in 2007. In fact, Denish's husband was a lobbyist for the developer seeking to lure the solar company and Denish spoke at the firm's groundbreaking, calling it a "momentous day." But there is no proof she played a role in helping get state money for the project or directing it to Mesa del Sol. So this ad, like the previous one involving Mesa del Sol, was essentially discredited by the Journal and more aggressively so by the nonpartisan group factcheck.org. So why are the ads still on the air? Well, the press has not pressured Martinez. nor her campaign. She is not being asked directly why the ads are still on. And only one story is being written about the erroneous ads and there is nothing on the editorial pages. The paper would need to launch a mini-campaign to get the Martinez campaign to own up to the error of its ways. But they aren't and the Denish response to Martinez in her own TV ad is not hard-hitting enough. Until New Mexico candidates are forced to pay a price for putting up false information on the tube, they will continue to ride roughshod over their opposition--and the truth. MARTINEZ STARTS CLOSING It seems way too early to say that Susana Martinez has started her closing media. But it sure seems that way. This week she moved into her media mix an ad she first came with in the GOP Guv primary. It is a spot about how the Dona Ana DA pursued the Carly Martinez murder case. Carly was an 18 year old university student who was raped and killed in 1998. This is one of the few positive ads that Martinez has run in recent months. If the polls continue their current trajectory expect to see more of them in the final weeks, Of course, if we were in Denish's position--running six points behind in a state where your party has 50 percent of the registered voters--we'd be tearing our hair out, throwing eggs at the electric fan and kicking our computer. And we'd be putting up a new strategy. But that's us. For Di, nothing much has changed since the Sunday Journal poll that had political analysts from coast-to-coast lowering the odds of her winning this race. Tuesday night she was running the same TV spots that she had on before the poll. Well, maybe today. TV news reported Tuesday that so far Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver has had requests for 33,000 absentee ballots. That's an above-average number. Our insiders are reporting that the Martinez campaign made a strong mid-September push to get voters to request absentees. We think we are seeing some of the results in these numbers. DEFENDING KIRTLAND  The blog debate over Kirtland Air Force Base continues, with reader Mick responding to a broadside against the base leveled Tuesday by Feroza Jussawalla. The action got started when we blogged about the four Democrats on the ABQ City Council voting for a resolution (that didn't pass) that called for shipping nuclear weapons said to be stored at Kirtland over to Texas. Here's Mick who was stationed at the base in the early 50's:Feroza doesn't have a clue about KAFB's relation to Albuquerque and to the neighborhoods nearby. KAFB has created some problems for neighbors to be sure, and KAFB has worked to help ameliorate them. Not always too swiftly or in the manner that we would have liked, but problems have not gone untreated. Homeowners near KAFB who complain about KAFB must not have done their due diligence prior to spending a lot of money for their homes. Now they want KAFB to move or shut down. Their other option is for them to move somewhere else. This is not a new comment, to be sure. But it's still valid. Removing the "nukes" from Kirtland will give BRAC (the base realignment commission) another reason for looking favorably toward its closing. It would take some time for the economic dust to settle after that closing, but the landscape would be bleak indeed after such an event. I can't imagine that anyone likes the idea of using the nukes in any manner, but they are a part of the American defense strategy--not to be used until someone is foolish enough to launch an attack on America. But they have to be stored and maintained somewhere and Albuquerque is the location of choice, both by historical precedent and by virtue of the fact that it has the talent to do the maintenance and the location to insure their safety. Kirtland's and Sandia's contribution to the development of Albuquerque as a great place to live and work is well-known to most of us. These installations have provided outstanding jobs to generations of people who have come here from all over the world. (They) have changed the face and the economy of Albuquerque for the better overall... The question to me based on Feroza's comments is: Move the nukes, dismantle KAFB and put Albuquerque and New Mexico's economy in the crapper; or, keep working with KAFB to keep Albuquerque as a place devoted to peace, both with its physical neighbors and by its support of the national effort to maintain a strong posture in the diplomatic world. THE BOTTOM LINES  Our Alligators report that Susana Martinez headed for a late supper at an ABQ Olive Garden restaurant following her Monday night fund-raiser with possible 2012 GOP prez candidate Mitt Romney. Considering the state of the Guv race, we wonder if the waiter handed Susana a menu or a résumé...Arizona Senator John McCain returns to ABQ for a fund-raiser with Martinez Saturday night at the Los Lunas home of GOP state rep candidate David Chavez. He's the trial attorney who is challenging Dem Andrew Barreras for the Valencia County seat. McCain was here earlier in the cycle for GOP congressional candidate Jon Barela. Ticks for this McCain visit are $100. Info at rsvp@susana2010.com... This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Tuesday, October 05, 2010Our Photo Caption Contest For New Mexico's Political Odd Couple, Plus: Voting In 2010 Election Starts Today, And: Latest Campaign News & Polls Senator Tom Udall and Secretary of State Mary Herrera make for a political odd couple in one of our favorite pics to emerge in Campaign 201o. The two Dems were snapped at a recent party event.What's Tom saying into that cell phone anyway? Email in your caption. We'll pick the two best from reader submissions, and donate $50 to each of their favorite NM-based charities. Sample: "Jill, Mary tricked me. This watermelon really came from Steve Pearce. Should I go to urgent care?" Enjoy. We'll take email entries today and Wednesday and announce the winners Thursday. Be sure to list your favorite charity along with your entry. VOTING BEGINS TODAY For those of us who have been covering this campaign for the past couple of years, it seems almost surreal that voting is finally underway. More than ever, the campaigns seem permanent. But this one will indeed end. And end it will for many voters today. They can go into their local county clerk's office and cast an absentee ballot. Absentee voting by mail also goes into high gear this week. Early voting at satellite stations opens Oct. 16 and that's when the election really picks up steam as it heads for the last round of voting on the actual Election Day. Today is also the last day to register to vote in this election. If you are looking to get an early voting start, here is the League of Women voters guide on the major races. Early vote info for Bernalillo County is here. Santa Fe early vote info is here. CASH RACE  It's about a two to one money edge for Rep. Martin Heinrich over Republican challenger Jon Barela in the money race in the final stretch. Heinrich reports $1 million cash on hand and Barela reports about $567,000 in the bank. Barela can also count on third party TV money, but he can't control the message on those ads. Same for Heinrich. Barela has done a decent job raising money, but he probably needs to be closer to take the incumbent out. R's now think a low-turnout is Jon's best chance to pull the upset. Heinrich doesn't need to lose any sleep, but neither should he be taking any naps. INDIAN ACTION The Navajos will get their first New Mexico leader in 70 years as State Senator Lynda Lovejoy faces off against tribal lawmaker Ben Shelly for the presidency of the Navajo Nation. Leaders have traditionally come from Arizona. Navajo Election Day is the same as the state election--Nov. 2. If Lovejoy wins she would be the first woman Navajo president. The action is starting to heat up, and the AP has an update from the Navajo capital at Window Rock, AZ. Lovejoy's senate district is spread over five counties. If she wins the presidency, the county commissions from those five counties will recommend replacement to Governor Big Bill. He leaves office in January but should have time to put the new senator in office. Dems are hoping the Navajo election will drive turnout higher for Denish and the Dems. We'll see Election Night when we gather at KANW 89.1 FM to broadcast all the results. HARRY AND STEVE
 Another good pop for Dem US Rep. Harry Teague as he tries to keep from being ousted by Republican Steve Pearce who has pulled ahead of him the Journal poll by one point:..The National Rifle Association, Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) endorsed Harry Teague...The NRA-PVF also gave Harry Teague an A rating in their annual scorecard. “I want to thank the NRA for their support. As a gun owner and hunter, I have always been a supporter of the Second Amendment. And I am proud to advocate for New Mexico gun owners and sportsmen because I believe that gun ownership is not only a right, it’s an American tradition and way of life -- especially for folks here in southern New Mexico,” said Teague. Earlier, Teague picked up an endorsement from another prominent conservative group--Veterans of Foreign Wars--as the neck and neck battle goes on in the south. Congressmen Heinrich and Lujan also won the NRA nod. Lujan opponent Tom Mullins was not a happy camper over that endorsement: Luján's Republican opponent, Tom Mullins of Farmington, wasn't happy with the endorsement decision by the country's largest gun lobby organization. "As a 12-year member of the NRA, I'm disappointed," Mullins said. "When I get to Congress, I will vote to support the Second Amendment." GARY ON THE GO Attorney General Gary King appears to be headed for a blow-out victory over Republican challenger Matt Chandler. He leads 52-32 in the Journal poll conducted last week. And that's important not just for Gary King but for the New Mexican Democratic Party. Concerns have mounted that weakness of Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish could infect the down-ballot races like AG. This poll shows that is not the case. King appears poised to lead the Democratic ticket in the general election as he did in the primary. That could set him up for another run at the Guv's office in 2014, if Denish can't pull off a come from behind win. USING CLINTON  Former President Clinton is slated to campaign for Dem Guv hopeful Denish in Espanola Oct. 14, but we are hearing rumblings from some Dems who wonder if Clinton might best be used for Rep. Teague who is locked in a tight battle with Republican Pearce for that southern US House seat. Even if Denish is still lagging, Clinton is still going to do Espanola, but a side trip to Las Cruces could be a big boost for Harry--if he can keep his race with Steve in play.HARD TIMES FOR WIVIOTT Remember Don Wiviott? He's the Santa Fe developer and Dem progressive who ran against Ben Ray Lujan in the 2008 Dem primary for the northern congressional. He gave Lujan a scare when he pumped over $1 million of his own money into the race. Maybe he wishes he had some of it back. To the news: Century Bank has started foreclosure proceedings on the ArtYard lofts at the Santa Fe Railyard, according to court documents filed last month. The bank said it's owed just under $6.9 million by Don Wiviott's ArtYard company. ArtYard defaulted last December on a loan taken out in 2007. "Century is entitled to the appointment of a Special Master to sell the property and to distribute the proceeds of such sale first to Century and the amounts due under the Note," the Aug. 26 filing said. ON THE TRAIL A Roundhouse Alligator says there is still time for Denish to pull it out: We still have 30 days. The candidate that eliminates "the slander" and develops a jobs/economic plan will win. Problem is, both camps lack leadership, wisdom, local flavor and understanding. Out-of-state campaign directors do no understand people that eat chile everyday... Maybe the jobs and economy will surface more forcefully in the final month. We've been waiting. Even if it does, we expect the tehem be negatively oriented. KEEPING KIRTLAND  Reader Feroza Jussawalla disagrees with our take made here last Thursday that ABQ would become a ghost town if Kirtland Air Force Base was shut down. The subject came up in the wake of a vote by the ABQ City council on a resolution that would have nuclear weapons said to be stored at Kirtland removed and shipped to Texas. the resolution was defeated 5 to 4, with all four Democrats voting for the measure. From Feroza:Joe, You are wrong about Albuquerque becoming a ghost town if Kirtland should close. As someone who has been Neighborhood Association President at adjoining neighborhoods, I can tell you that there is nothing more that the neighbors would want than to see Kirtland close. It isn't just the nukes that are a problem. There are problems associated with the individuals that inhabit the base, problems of alcoholism, stores selling alcohol, cigarettes, unfriendly inhabitants etc. The noise and smell of airplane gasoline are intense and there a problems in the water wells. (Dem US Rep.) Martin Heinrich was elected from a very liberal district. What does he do? He saves the "Flying Tacos" and shows pictures of himself in air force gear. In that case we might as well have elected Heather Wilson. No, lets get some gentler kinder people than those who work at Kirtland. Lets get the military out of our neighborhood and our homes! Heinrich and the rest of the state's congressional delegation had no comment on the controversial action of their fellow Dems, but Dem Guv hopeful Diane Denish broke ranks with her political brethren: We are in historically difficult times, and city leadership at every level should be focused on creating jobs and making sure our firefighters and first responders have the tools they need to keep the people of Albuquerque safe. While I appreciate their safety concerns, I would much rather see our city leaders focus their energy on meeting the critical needs of struggling families. LOBO BLUES  From downtown ABQ, Metro Court Judge Frank Sedillo weighs in on the beleagured state of the Univeristy of New Mexico football Lobos:I am not certain as to the exact figures, but, relatively speaking, the athletic budget must be a small percentage of the overall educational budget. In addition, UNM's athletic budget shrinks in comparison to most Division I athletic budgets...A number of years ago Kansas and Kansas State were historically the worst football teams in the NCAA...It took fan support and investment to change their status. I would venture to say that most people in their communities now feel that their investment was worthwhile. The message has never been that athletics is more important that education. Academics has and should always be the top priority, but wouldn't it be nice to have an athletic program that brings respect, recognition, honor, and, yes, additional funds to the University? It can happen!.. And then Judge Sedillo woke up from his dream and threw the book at a drunk driver. ON THE TUBE Here's how the latest Guv polls are playing out on TV news. KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson says a lot of Dems are asking him why they haven't seen a Denish TV spot that highlights Sarah Palin's support for Martinez. Good question. SEND IN THE CLOWNS From the wires: A Brazilian clown has had the last laugh by winning a seat in Congress with more votes than any other candidate in Sunday's elections. Tiririca, or Francisco Oliveira Silva to give him his real name, was elected as a federal deputy for Sao Paulo with more than 1.3 million votes. Tiririca, or "Grumpy", had slogans such as: "It can't get any worse." Maybe we should try that here? This is the home of New Mexico politics Email your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, October 04, 2010Saving Diane Denish: An Alligator Manifesto For Her As Time Starts To Run Out, Plus: The Poisoned Chalice; Deficit New Guv Will Get Keeps Growing Susana, hang loose. You've got a healthy lead and a friendly trend. Let Diane D take the game to you. Just don't drop the ball. And if you can get away to North Korea or some secluded place for a couple of weeks, go ahead. The less that you say, the better. As for you, Di. Ears up. The Alligators, as is their habit, are circling around the campaign where the flesh wounds are clearly visible and waiting for the blood to hit water. But they think you have one last chance to avoid that grisly outcome, so without further ado we present the Alligator Manifesto for your final hours resurrection as the Dem Guv hopeful:--Denish has said no tax hikes in her first year, but she can amend that to say any tax increases needed in the future will fall on those making $200,000 or more a year. That is the Obama plan that was not taken up by the Democratic congress, but it puts Denish squarely on the side of the working classes who have been allergic to her. --Denish is backed in a corner. She isn't even carrying the women's vote. No Democrat can win without that vote. She needs to give full and public endorsement to a woman's right to choose and present Martinez as a threat to that right. That may sound high-risk but Denish needs a big jackpot and can only get it by playing longer odds. --The Denish jobs message doesn't resonate. What the heck is micro-lending and small business incentives to a guy out of work? Propose a real jobs program to repair New Mexico's road and bridges. Divert unused capital outlay funds to do it and float a "Jobs Bond" using revenue from the state's permanent funds to back it up. --Don't be defensive. Play into the national GOP weakness and say: "Giving the keys to the treasury back to the Republicans is tantamount to giving the keys to your car to a drunk driver." --If hubbie Herb Denish is fair game, what about Martinez's husband, Dona Ana Undersheriff Chuck Franco? Where has the Dem opposition team been? Wake up, boys. --Yes, Richardson is unpopular statewide, but he has important pockets of supports in the north. He knows how to rally a crowd. Use him, campaign with him, Di. Besides, what's the downside at this point? --Denish has to start defending territory that is defensible. The SE and Little Texas are gone--long gone. She must grab the headlines and create Democratic energy by revisiting her reticence on such things as the environmental PIT rule. If she can't beat up on the oil companies, who can she beat up on? She must win Albuquerque, home of the state's Democratic base. The Manifesto stems from that premise. MORE ALLIGATOR MANIFESTO  --Denish doesn't have to worry about firing up conservatives by moving to a populist stance. They are already hotter than a Tucumcari parking lot in July. They are voting. Di's hope is to motivate those who are on the sidelines--thousands of them--and that means apathetic Democrats who can't see any direct stake for them in this election or in Diane Denish.--Denish got no bump from the low-key Obama ABQ visit which took place while the Journal was polling. She needs to bring him back for a public rally to get blue-collar Democrats and Anglo liberals off their seats. Hispanics, too. --Denish says Martinez is a threat, but voters aren't getting that feeling. She must draw a contrast by taking the firm populist positions outlined here and forcing Martinez and the Republicans to go apoplectic. Only then can the debate and a real campaign begin. The middle-of-the-road-take-no-chances DC handlers have had their shot. Denish is now on her own. She must now exercise leadership and retool her campaign. Nothing else may work and nothing less is expected of one who would be Governor. And there you have a consensus of Alligator opinion--right or wrong--but certainly entertaining. For more analysis of the Journal poll see our special Sunday blog below. MORE DI TALK Directly from a Senior Alligator via email: Joe, You are right on target when you note that the Denish campaign lacks a clear message. Diane was an early adopter of the DLC ( Democratic Leadership Council) "new" Democrat strategy and philosophy which many feel is GOP "light." Now, she finds it difficult to distinguish herself from Martinez because she is mirroring so many of her policy positions. It certainly hasn't helped her in conservative counties. People want the authentic Democrat and politician, not some focus group trained automaton. CONGRESS POLLS Martin Heinrich continues to look good for re-election in the ABQ congressional district. The Dem US Rep. leads Jon Barela 48 to 41 in the latest Journal poll conducted Sept. 27-30. That's one point better for Heinrich than the Journal's first poll on the race in late August. Barela's heavily consulted DC campaign has yet to come with an out-of-the-box message to woo the independent district. Until he does, this one is lean Dem and about to go into the "likely Dem" category. In the south, the toss-up continues, but Republican Steve Pearce is on the move. He leads Dem US Rep. Harry Teague 45 to 44. He was behind by three in the paper's late August poll. The race remains a toss-up, but Harry is still the underdog in New Mexico's most conservative region. THE POISONED CHALICE Sen. Jennings  The next Governor of New Mexico will sip from a poisoned chalice. Look at these latest estimates of the state's projected budget hole from Senate President Pro Tem Tim Jennings:We will again be faced with a $350 to $400 million budget shortfall in January (as we address the budget year that starts next July). In the history of the state we have never faced fiscal problems of this magnitude. Since both gubernatorial candidates have pledged not to raise taxes, the legislature will be challenged to reduce spending possibly as much as $400 million...Jennings adds that for the current budget year that started July 1 of this year, the Legislature will have to trim another $100 million to get it into balance. That's on top of the 3.2 percent across the board cuts we had in September as well as the budget cuts and tax increases approved at the last session. That's a grand total of $500 million in budget-cutting that will have to be done in the 60 day session of the Legislature slated for January. Someone correct us if we're wrong, but Senator Tim doesn't appear to be including in his projection a freshly announced $361 million shortfall in the state Medicaid program. That would appear to put the shortfall for this year and the next approaching an astounding $900 million. But what's a couple of hundred million between friends?
Is that doable when tax increases of any kind are being ruled out by the next Guv? And on top of it, no cuts to Medicaid or the public schools which comprise 60 percent of the budget? Denish has proposed about $90 million a year in savings. Martinez has not specified where she would get the money and came with a nearly ludicrous explanation that Richardson and Denish are fudging the numbers so we don't really know the situation. No, Susana, we know the situation. What we don't now is what kind of leadership you will exercise to resolve the crisis. As for the numbers, just ask Senator Jennings. We're sure he'll be glad to forward them. Both of these potential Governors need to be put on the hot seat and held accountable for not having a plan. The October TV debates offer that opportunity if someone will ask the questions. FIXING A HOLE If the next Governor swears they will veto any tax increase then options are limited on plugging this huge hole. Ending tax incentives and closing tax loopholes will be high on the list because that would not be a direct increase. We think the Martinez-Denish pledge of no cuts to the public schools and Medicaid will be in jeopardy no matter who wins. And we've written already that getting at royalty money before it heads to the Permanent Funds is going to be seriously discussed. It is going to be a legislative session where real human needs in one of the poorest state's in the nation bumps against an implacable fiscal reality. TRANSPARENCY OR NOT? Cangiolosi  Martinez and the Republicans (and the press) have made government corruption and transparency major issues, but apparently not major enough. Martinez is following in the footsteps of her GOP primary rival Allen Weh and running the payroll for her campaign through a payroll company, rather than letting us know each individual who is working on the campaign and how much they are getting paid.For example, how much is campaign manager Ryan Cangiolosi being paid? His name isn't on Martinez's latest finance report. He was working at a company owned by GOP Chairman Harvey Yates before he went with the campaign. We'd ask Ryan to voluntarily disclose his income, but he does not return e-mail. We can't ask a press secretary because the first one the campaign had was fired for drunk driving and was never replaced. At first, Denish was also running her campaign payroll through a payroll company, but long ago began releasing the name of each employee and their salary. Can't Susana do the same as she is the "transparency candidate?" Who are all the folks running her campaign, many of whom will likely end up in the government? The taxpayers want to judge their performance as well. If this seems picayune, remember, how they run the campaign is how they run the government. Don't say we didn't tell you. TEAGUE VS. PEARCE If newspapers could vote, Harry Teague would be doing pretty well. The southern Dem US Rep won the nod of the Alamogordo Daily News over GOP challenger Steve Pearce and he now adds the editorial endorsement of the Las Cruces Sun-News: Since both Teague and Pearce have served in Congress recently, this race gives voters a unique opportunity to compare and contrast their performances. We believe Teague better understands the district because he has made more of an effort to meet the people and hear from them what their hopes and concerns are. We suspect that is why he appears to be faring well in what is, by all accounts, a very difficult year for Democrats and incumbents. MOVING ON Another of our Alligators reports movement out of the Guv's office:Another one of Big Bill's communications staff has landed safely. Caitlin Keller is now public information officer for the New Mexico National Guard. She escaped and found a classified job. Not sure what it pays, but she'll have a job come January. That leaves Alarie Ray-Garcia working for Deputy Chief of Staff Gilbert Gallegos who heads the communications department. Where will they both land? Or where will they crash land? We wish them luck in this economy. THE BOTTOM LINES We short changed former Governor Dave Cargo a year when we blogged some of his campaign thoughts Friday. Dave had a birthday in January and is now 81. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Sunday, October 03, 2010Sunday Special: It's Do Or Die For Di; She Trails 47 to 41 In Journal Poll; Richardson Baggage & No Campaign Message Hurts; Susana Closing In On Prize The poll is here. Denish has been weighed down by the negative cargo of Big Bill Richardson as well as her own campaign that has failed to deliver a definitive message to motivate her fellow Dems. Veteran pollster and Dem analyst Harry Pavlides had predicted that Denish would trail Martinez by only three in this survey. So what happened? Diane is still behind by six obviously because of Richardson but also because she has not come with a firm message. She needs to start being a Democrat with a capital "D" but I fear the campaign could misread what is happening and move to the right. Voters are angry and it is Martinez who has become a vessel for that anger. She has been relentless in hammering Denish on corruption charges--true or not--and has also made inroads by virtue of being the first female Hispanic nominee of a major party. The combination has a foot on Denish's windpipe and she can't move. However, Martinez is not yet over 50 percent because voters are waiting for something more from her. But she is likely to win if the campaign themes stay on their current course. The 47 to 41 could easily turn into 54-46 on Election Night. Denish has not been able to break 45 in any of the major public polls. That glass ceiling is looking more like cement today. The Martinez campaign has had their candidate 10 ahead--50-40 and so did Friday's Rasmussen survey. The Journal survey is considered more comprehensive and weighted closely to the demographics of the state. Martinez continues to lead in alll geographic areas of the state except the heavily Hispanic northcentral, but overall Denish catprues only 57% of the Hispanic vote to Martinez's 29%. That's low for a Dem. And in a real body blow, Martinez leads with women 45-42--the core constituency of the Democratic Party. Men heavily favor the Dona Ana DA--48-39. Another deadly stat: Martinez leads Denish 48 to 40 in the ABQ metro. Martinez has led in every public poll released throughout the campaign. The only solace for Denish in this one is that Martinez is below that magic number of 50. Denish dodged a bullet. But it is clear that the eight year lieutenant governor is not the crowd favorite. At the same time, the attacks against Martinez's record as Dona Ana County district attorney have bounced off the wall. Ditto for the somewhat milquetoast attacks on her being a "Republican politician." We've wondered aloud here about whether voters would lower the bar for Martinez because they hunger so for change. They seem to have done that, looking the other way at negative charges hurled her way that might in another year have staying power. Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff said: "Susana's strategy of attempting to paint Denish as being somehow connected to corruption has depressed support for Denish" while Denish has no clear theme. Martinez, 51, may or may not have to pivot to a jobs-economy message to close this campaign out. It really depends now on how much heat Denish can put on her. To that end, Denish, 61, will have to shed her tentativeness and abandon her incremental steps toward the left and fully embrace a populist message. Baby steps like concern over payday loans aren't going to cut it--especially when folks aren't getting loans. Senior Alligators are saying Denish needs to let people know what she has done as a Democrat and what her opponent will do as a Republican. Without that distinction, this race is a choice between two conservatives and voters are voting for the real one--Susana Martinez. Not for reproduction without permission of the author. Friday, October 01, 2010Score September For Susana; Now For October, Plus: Our Ruminations On This Joyless Campaign, And: Rasmussen With 10 Point Lead For MartinezScore September for Susana. She began the month five points ahead and either kept or expanded that lead, depending on which poll you look at. When Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish came with a poll of her own that showed the GOP hopeful just one point shy of the critical 50% mark, Martinez took the month definitively. Previously, we scored June for Martinez when Denish's first round of ads backfired. July went to Denish when she regained her footing. Susana took August when Di failed to gain ground. So it is 3 to 1 in the month by month battle. But October is the month that can quickly wipe away earlier sorrows and mistakes. Hope is still alive for the underdog. The starting line for the final month will be drawn in chalk Sunday when the ABQ Journal comes with its second Guv poll. The late August survey had Martinez winning 45 to 39. If this survey has Martinez expanding her lead it will be a blow to Di, but if the lieutenant governor has narrowed the gap it could rejuvenate her forces. THE JOYLESS CAMPAIGN Former NM GOP Governor Dave Cargo ('67-'70) told us this week that this "is the most sterile campaign I've ever seen." And it may well be, consisting as it does of high-level nuclear attack TV ads and little else. The candidates hardly appear together to debate the issues. Contrast that with previous competitive Guv campaigns when the contenders have appeared together more than a dozen times. So far, we have had a mere two joint appearances. Two TV debates are scheduled in October, but that may be all we get. The turgid TV ads is all much of the public knows of this race. It seems to be fine with both sides, too. Neither candidate appears to especially enjoy their outings together. There is rarely any humor between the pair or from them individually and both seem wound too tight and over consulted. Maybe it is their inexperience at this level, but the authenticity that has been so prized in state politics seems to have been replaced by packaging. Maybe now that we've reached the 2 million population mark, we can't expect much personal politics--at least in the cities. But how about some door-to-door campaigning or some old-fashioned gimmicks to give this campaign some warmth and humanity to overcome the sterility? About the only one who seems to be having any fun is Brian Colón, the Dem Light Guv candidate who is the modern day version of the Happy Warrior. He's hopscotching from town to town and tweeting away with abandon. But the Guv candidates seem petrified of making a mistake and having it caught for the next wreckless TV attack ad which would be reliably delivered without joy, humor or irony. But the negative ads, of course, are effectively brutal. The 81 year old Cargo doesn't pine for the days of the past, just a future where there is some connection between the campaign and governing. In 2010, in New Mexico, he seems to be asking too much. BILL'S BILLS He's done everything but throw Rolex watches at the state fair parade crowd to get his popularity back up, but all recent polling shows Big Bill mired in the low 30's or even high 20's in voter approval. Maybe he'll get some credit for keeping his bills down? KUDOS FOR HARRY  A nice pat on the back for southern Dem Congressman Harry Teague from the Alamogordo Daily News. They come with an early endorsement of Teague who is locked in a brutal battle for his political survival against GOP challenger Steve Pearce.We've seen the many things he has done for Alamogordo, Otero County and Holloman Air Force Base. We've seen his work with area veterans, an issue he takes so seriously that, as a freshman congressman, he was able to gain a seat on the Veterans Affairs Committee. That's where he's able to work on such issues as veterans' health care funding, veterans' mental health, economic opportunity for veterans, women veterans' issues and veteran homelessness. That the endorsement comes from the most conservative part of the district is especially gratifying for Teague who Pearce is painting as too liberal. THE HERITAGE QUESTION We wondered in our June 15 blog about the grandparents of Susana Martinez, who would, if elected Nov. 2, become the first Hispanic female Governor in the nation's history. The press has not told us much about her family background Well, it turns out on June 24 Martinez did address her grandparents' heritage. It was with an interview with national radio talk show host Laura Ingraham the candidate said her grandparents on her father's side were born in Mexico. From a reader: Martinez said her paternal grandparents were born in Mexico. Martinez was asked about her parent’s background and whether they came from Mexico. Martinez said, “No. My, my paternal grandparents did. My parents…who were born in the United States...and my maternal grandparents were in the United States but not my paternal grandparents... It may take some time, but just about every question ever posed here is eventually answered. Martinez was born and raised in El Paso. Large campaign contributions she's received from Texas are a focal point of one of Diane Denish's current TV spots. THE BOTTOM LINES  This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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