 |
|  |
|
| 
|  |
|
Thursday, July 07, 2011Illegal Immigration? Now Only A Trickle, Plus: Balderas Scores "Get" With Denish Endorsement, But Is There Message Trouble Ahead? Looks like Governor Susana can chill some over the prospect of marauding hordes flooding across the border and scarfing up all the New Mexico driver's licenses they can cram into their wallets. The latest:The extraordinary Mexican migration that delivered millions of illegal immigrants to the United States over the past 30 years has sputtered to a trickle, and research points to a surprising cause: unheralded changes in Mexico that have made staying home more attractive. A growing body of evidence suggests that a mix of developments--expanding economic and educational opportunities, rising border crime and shrinking families--are suppressing illegal traffic as much as economic slowdowns or immigrant crackdowns in the United States. NO CLIFF DWELLING A reader writes of our Wednesday blog on the Guv's 52% approval rating in the PPP poll: Joe, unlike other Republican Governors who were elected last year, Susana did not drive her honeymoon car over the cliffs by slashing and burning all of state government..." True enough, but as we've said previously voters in Dem dominated New Mexico have Martinez on a short leash and she knows it. A move to the radical right on the key economic issues would incinerate her. That's why during her campaign she said she would cut bureaucracy in Medicaid and public education--not medical services or school teachers. Those promises are being closely monitored. (We talked more about the latest Guv poll with TV news). DI AND HECTOR  That was a nice "get" for Hector Balderas Wednesday. The day after he released a solid fund-raising report, former Lt. Governor Diane Denish endorsed his candidacy for the Dem Senate nomination over Rep. Martin Heinrich. The Denish endorsement could help Hector raise money, attract southern Anglo votes and boosts his credibility.So what could be wrong? Well, actually quite a bit--not with Di's endorsement--but with the accompanying message. Leave it to the Alligators to go contrary--and with all teeth bared: If you didn't know better, you might have thought Denish and Balderas were a pair of cautious accountants--not the opposition to one of the most conservative Republican parties in modern history. On a telephone news conference, she said: "I think that Hector's experience, his approach to fiscal accountability, fiscal responsibility, is one of the great parts of his record and the kind of skill set that we need in Washington." Well, as Di's critics might say, "There she goes again." It was that kind of vague semi-conservatism that cost Denish and Brian Colon emotional support in their own party in last year's Governor's race, and it could signify a weakness for Balderas as well. Hector's news release announcing the endorsement came with this head scratcher of an opening: Citing his record of bringing accountability to government in order to invest in education and economic opportunity, former New Mexico Lt. Governor and 2010 Democratic nominee for Governor Diane Denish today endorsed Hector Balderas for United States Senate. What? No Social Security, no Medicare, no Medicaid, no unemployment, no talk of massive income inequality? And nothing about higher taxes for the uber-rich? The "fiscal accountability" talk in Washington is scaring the bejesus out of Mr. and Mrs. America, has Republicans on the defensive and the nominating wing of the Democratic Party on the move. And Hector decides to go vegetarian when the crowds are crying for red meat? Some of Hector's fiscal message might resonate in a general election, but Balderas remains the decided primary underdog against a sitting U.S. Congressman who has a 2 to 1 money lead and a 23 point polling lead. What are these consultants playing for here? Senior partner in an accounting firm or a seat in the United States Senate? Balderas seems to be indicating that the national deficit is the most pressing issue facing the USA. Many, many Democrats who vote in primaries are not going to get warm and fuzzy feelings hearing that. And big Dem money givers might also be inhibited. In making a smooth play with Denish, Hector revealed his biggest current weakness--an inchoate message that indicates his campaign believes (wrongly) that conservative sounding, diaphanous talk is going to win this primary. Or maybe their thinking is that ethnicity will trump everything. But ideas still matter. Having a world view matters. Didn't Denish and Colon learn that the hard way? And while ethnicity is important, perhaps it is not quite as important as Team Balderas is supposing in a high information race like US Senate. Hector has plenty of time to refine his message and his personal story remains compelling and moving, but right now that sound you're hearing is opportunity knocking on Martin Heinrich's door. THE BACK STORY Denish  So what's the back story on Di going for Hector? From one of our Democratic Alligators we get the low down:The timing of Denish's endorsement was no coincidence, coming as it did after Hector came with a good finance report. She was behind Hector from day one, but could not endorse a candidate who might not have made it through the summer. Aside from Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, no elected official worked harder for Denish in her Governor race than Hector, especially in the North. Denish and her crowd have been quietly pushing things around for Hector trying to help those donations roll in, but as Balderas has legitimized his campaign there is no more quiet work to be done--it's loud and proud behind Hector. Heinrich had to know the endorsement was coming because he did absolutely nothing to help Denish in last year's election, nothing. While he ultimately won his race, he burned a bridge and as you know La Politica doesn't forget. Other Alligators note that if Denish ever runs again for political office she will need Hispanic voters. Her endorsement of Balderas helps that cause. And, yes, it was interesting that no photos were released of Denish endorsing Balderas. You fill in that blank. MONEY CHASE  A reader writes of the fund-raising summaries from Dem US Senate candidates Martin Heinrich and Hector Balderas:In order to avoid offending Hispanics in a swing state, major donors and players held back from Heinrich. Now they have good reason to take a closer look at Balderas. Heinrich raised $485,000 in the April quarter, what we took to be a healthy amount. But not everyone agreed, including that reader and this analysis from the National Journal's Hotline blog: Balderas made his mark, raising over $400,000 in the first quarter, nearly matching the $485,000 that Heinrich brought in. Balderas' ability to fund raise was one of the biggest question marks on his campaign - that's not the case any longer. And Heinrich's near half-million haul is a little underwhelming, given that he's a sitting member of Congress with the fundraising perks that position entails.... There may be something to our reader's comments about donors pulling back a bit on Martin. A couple of months ago the Dem senatorial committee was quite careful not to give an endorsement to Heinrich, even as they endorsed in another contested Dem Senate primary. We noted at the time that overlooking a Hispanic candidate like Balderas could be treacherous for the national Dems. They say Rep. Heinrich actually enjoys raising money over the phones. Well, he's got his marching orders--raise even more. By the way, in our first draft Wednesday we called Heinrich a native of Missouri. He was actually born in Nevada and grew up in Missouri. This is the home of New Mexico politics. We welcome your advertising and for a limited time have special summer rates. E-mail us for details, as well as your news and comments.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, July 06, 2011Standing With Susana; Guv At 52% Approval Six Months In, Plus: Balderas Lives To Fight; Has Solid Cash Count; Heinrich Maintains Money Lead They aren't blow-the-doors-off numbers, but a Republican governor scoring a 52 percent approval rating in a majority Democratic state isn't cause to cry in the corner either. And that's where Susana Martinez stands--at 52%--after six months in office, according to the Dem polling firm PPP. Her disapproval is at 37%. In a February PPP poll taken after she had been in office only one month Martinez's approval rating was at 52%.Perhaps most importantly voters are showing no signs of having buyers remorse: (Martinez) would win a hypothetical rematch with opponent Diane Denish by a 53-44 margin, actually a little bit better than the 7 point spread she won by last fall. The Dem firm, perhaps throwing a grenade into the GOP theater, gushes euphoric over Martinez as a possible 2012 GOP Veep pick because of her solid polling performance in our little 'ol blue state. Before they get too carried away it should be noted that Martinez's popularity can't be called enduring. Also, it has yet to be challenged with the kind of withering criticism that can take a politicos numbers down faster than a roadrunner crossing the interstate. Then there is the easy going press coverage. Big Bill also got that during his first couple of years The two displays of gubernatorial authority that have burrowed into the public imagination--and not just those of the political classes--has been the February natural gas emergency and the Los Alamos fire which was burning when this poll was taken. By most accounts, she performed ably. Her first legislative session--the sixty day confab that was quickly dubbed a do-nothing session-- also did her no real harm. Dems are frustrated that the state's fragile economic situation is not inflicting more damage on Susana who has really not talked about it much. But the public seems of a mind to blame national political leaders more than local ones. Still, 52 percent is only a couple of points above the magic 50 percent level. And her popularity is not growing. Maybe economic woes are capping her in the low 50's. (The MOE for the poll is plus or minus 3.6%). One other thing. Martinez's approval from Hispanics is 49%. That's some ten points better than she did with them at the polls last November. There's ethnic pride in the first female Hispanic Governor in state history and that is serving to extend her honeymoon. By the way, ex-Governor Big Bill's approval rating is a rock-bottom 27 percent. Not that Susana will necessarily be gloating. Now that she has the job she can see the basement below her as well as the ceiling above. JEFF AND MORE PPP also polled the popularity of the state's congressional delegation June 23-26, finding outgoing Dem US Senator Jeff Bingaman winning 58% approval. Dem Senator Tom Udall came in at 48%. That's a little lower than he'd like, but Jeff is not in the 60 percentile region where he routinely lounged. Voter discontent with the national scene is across-the-board. MARTIN AND HECTOR Balderas & Heinrich   Both Martin Heinrich and Hector Balderas turned in solid fundraising reports for the April quarter, with Hector needing it more than Martin and delivering. There will be no early knockout of the young State Auditor--even though Heinrich has a nearly two to one cash in the bank advantage--$700,000 to Hector's $370,000. Heinrich, 39, reported raising $485,000 in the quarter. That's nothing to sneeze at, but Balderas, 37, beat expectations and came with $400,000. He did not announce his candidacy until April 26, missing three weeks of fund-raising. Balderas' campaign says he did not loan himself any money to reach the 400k level. However, Alligators analyzing the reports say that Heinrich, who has been raising money since Senator Bingaman announced his decision to retire in mid-February, had about 2,200 donors in the recent quarter to Balderas' 1,000. That could mean Hector pushed many of his donors to give the maximum donation allowed for the Senate cycle so he could make a splash now. We won't know for sure until the official reports are made public at mid-month. (GOP US Senate contenders Heather Wilson and John Sanchez have not released summaries of their latest quarterly reports. Greg Sowards earlier announced he has loaned his campaign $150,000). So now what? Well, Balderas needs an encore. He passed the initial test but the exam is far from over. The pressure will now be on to show that he did not just pick the low-lying fruit to make his first reporting number. Those results will come in October. Still, he gets credit for getting it done. It takes organization and discipline to raise the kind of money he did and those are two traits that are also needed to become an effective US Senator. The Wagon Mound native may find in the coming months that money begets more money. Also, don't think that Susana Martinez and company aren't carefully watching Hector's performance. Remember, if for some reason he should falter in the Senate contest, he could use his federal money to run for a state office. And he's already won the two terms he's allowed as state auditor. We're just saying.... As for Martin, the two term ABQ congressman has shown he can get into the wallets of New Mexicans, but can he get into their hearts? That Heinrich could not take out Balderas early shows there is a yearning among some Dems for new faces--especially Hispanic ones. The rural and ethnic appeal of Balderas remains a challenge for Heinrich who is the front-runner, having more money in the bank and a 47-24 advantage in the first public polling in the race from PPP. But Balderas has put some heat on here and Heinrich, a Nevada native who grew up in Missouri, needs to continue to run a mistake-free campaign and make sure he doesn't get dubbed the carpetbagger in the race. Obviously, some of the natives around here are restless and history says it is dangerous for a lone Anglo Democrat to be challenged by a lone Hispanic Dem. We could see this Dem Senate race get a little edgier now that bigger money is on the table. For example, will Heinrich try to make Balderas be more specific on the issues of the day? Maybe on something like abortion, where Balderas may have a more conservative view than Heinrich? And Heinrich will be tested as well. The ability of the relatively untested Balderas to keep his candidacy going and give Heinrich a run for the money signals that one thing hasn't changed when it comes to winning a seat in the United States Senate--no one is going to hand it to you--you have to earn it. This is the home of New Mexico politics. We welcome your advertising and for a limited time have special summer rates. E-mail us for details, as well as your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Tuesday, July 05, 2011An Early Halloween Scare, Plus: R Hopes Grow For ABQ House Seat, And: Poking a Potential Political Player It caught our eye that the bribery trial of Las Cruces Judge Michael Murphy is slated to begin with jury selection on Halloween. But so far the really scary thing about the case is the paucity of firm evidence offered up by the special prosecutor. Heck, even the alleged "bagman" who is said to have passed on bribes to Governor Big Bill in exchange for judicial appointments hasn't even copped a deal or been indicted. Now that's pretty scary--or it could be--for special prosecutor and Clovis area district attorney Matt Chandler.Chandler may win or lose the Murphy case but he is winning the messaging war. New Mexicans have seen plenty of corruption in their time. And indicating, as Chandler has, that alleged judicial bribery might not be confined to Las Cruces, is an easy political win for him and his fellow Republicans who benefit. Of course, crying "boo!" is easy. Proving that ghosts really exist is another matter. HOPEFUL R'S
President Obama carried Bernalillo County by a stunning 60,000 votes in 2008 and the Republicans have high hopes that they can take back the ABQ congressional seat in 2012? That's right--and they have some convincing reasons. Insider R's are quick to say that neither Dan Lewis, Jon Barela or Janice Arnold-Jones--their potential GOP nominees--are superstars of the local political galaxy--but the way things are shaping up in the early going any of them could take the seat against State Sen. Eric Griego or former ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez--the two main players for the Dems thus far. Optimistic R's foresee Chavez and Griego tearing themselves apart and have their fingers crossed that no Dem candidate of a moderate bent gets in the contest. They say if either Chavez or Griego is the blood-stained nominee, their chances for victory skyrocket. The R's aren't fantasizing. The Chavez entry has elite Democrats worried who share the GOP analysis and lament over what may be brewing. They pine for a third candidate who could run up the middle between Chavez and Griego, but the pickings are slim to none. State Sen. Tim Keller, an early hope for them, has ruled out a run. Ditto for State Rep. Al Park. Former Sen. Bingaman aide Terry Brunner and Public Regulation Commissioner Jason Marks are highly unlikely to wade in. State Treasurer James Lewis, now in his 60's, is another no go. Those who believe in the "Dem debacle is brewing" scenario, say an Anglo Democrat on the order of Keller is the best bet to retain the seat. But who? National Dems are starting to take some back room hits over their failure to recruit a candidate that is seen as ideal for the district. Can't they put the heat on Keller or another fresh face to run, the critics ask? So, what if the field remains static? Are the R's underestimating the political prowess of State Sen. Griego and former Mayor Chavez? We'll see. NOT LOOKING A reader writes of our Fourth of July blog speculation about Governor Martinez's future: Susana is not in the market for another job. Therefore, speculation that she is shaping policy in New Mexico to embellish her attractiveness as a VP candidate is groundless. I Have not seen one policy initiative that she did not mention on the campaign trail. Finally, I want you to name one policy initiative that grew from her post election notoriety among Republicans. She publicly has said several times that she is not interested. I believe her. We had in mind the relentless pounding over eliminating driver's licenses for illegal immigrants as an example. But maybe that is solely for domestic consumption. Then there is the seemingly conscious decision not to compromise with the Legislature and her repeated unsuccessful lawsuits before the State Supreme Court. We see these positions and the tone in which they are pursued as appealing chiefly to Republicans--not independents or Dems. We also hear little serious engagement over the economy and jobs and more over the "wedge issues" that have emotional appeal to the R's and its nominating wing. But then maybe we are stretching on the Veep speculation. We'll keep watching. POKING GONZALES  Now that his name has been floated as a possible for higher office, critics of Dem US Attorney Kenneth Gonzales are taking him to the wood shed. The charge? That he is a "do-nothing" US attorney and if he harbors any hopes for higher office he better get on the stick. They point to his non-involvement in the the ABQ police department fatal shootings, his silence on immigration even as the Republican governor makes waves on what is a federal issue and the lack of any corruption indictments over state government pay-to-play schemes.Gonzales took over as US Attorney in May 2010. When he was appointed by President Obama he released a long list of priorities he would pursue. He did not stick his head in the political waters--a supporter suggested him to the blog as a Dem up and comer. But that was enough to get the Alligators snapping at him. The upside for Gonzales is that they they take him seriously. THE BOTTOM LINES  This sounds like a pretty cool idea:UNM’s Career Services has taken over a unique website aimed at retaining university graduates in New Mexico and finding jobs for New Mexicans who have left the state and want to return. The website currently has hundreds of employers and industries registered and more than 100 job positions currently posted at www.nmcareermatch.com NM Career Match started in 2008 as a way to keep university graduates in New Mexico by matching them with employers who were searching for their skills. This is the home of New Mexico politics. We welcome your advertising and for a limited time have special summer rates. E-mail us for details, as well as your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, July 04, 2011First Half Of Year Was Eventful; A Look Back And A Sneak Peek Ahead As We Celebrate The Fourth Of Juy 2011 Well, there goes the first half of 2011, a politically eventful six months that will be remembered for setting the political stage for years to comes. The big news was the announcement from Dem US Senator Jeff Bingaman that he would not seek re-election next year, ending a thirty year career that will also end New Mexico's seniority in a meaningful way on Capitol Hill.It could be years before the state gets another powerful senate chairmanship like the energy committee slot Bingaman secured. We are sure to feel the impact economically, although we think President Obama is going to do his best to keep the goodies flowing here in the year's second half and through Election Day 2012. The first six months of the term of Governor Martinez have now also been revealed, informing us as to what to expect for the next three years and then some. The GOP Guv is--not surprisingly--running a minimalist administration. It's also one that has had a rough start with the Legislature. Does the departure of Martinez deputy chief of staff Brian Moore from the Fourth Floor signal more rough waters ahead in that regard? The thinking among a number of analysts still has Martinez pursuing an agenda that positions her a shot on the 2012 GOP presidential ticket, no matter how unlikely. If that is so and does not come to pass, could we see a different gubernatorial character as she then pivots for her Guv re-election? Well, not until after the 2012 GOP convention where the Veep pick will be made. And then there's the September legislative redistricting session waiting in the wings. Will we get a deal or a Guv veto and end up in court? The political bettors say the latter is still the best bet. Here in ABQ Mayor Berry ran into a buzzsaw in the first six months of 2011 in the form of numerous fatal police shootings and his administration's response. Political damage was inflicted, but how much? Berry says the second half of the year will allow the voters give an "advisory" opinion on those controversial red light cameras. He did not veto the City Council's decision to send the issue to voters. That could send more anti-government and anti-incumbent voters to the October 4 polls. It also means the mayor is going to have to campaign harder for the bond issues. And he will. He will also have to keep his eye on that Greg Payne-Trudy Jones NE Heights council race. More anti-red light camera voters could mean more Payne votes and if he wins the seat, the mayor's GOP majority on the council will be much more fluid. One of those city councilors, Republican Dan Lewis, says he's raised $101,000 in the April-June quarter as he pursues the GOP nomination for the ABQ House seat being vacated by Dem Martin Heinrich who is running for Senate. Will that number influence 2010 GOP congressional nominee Jon Barela to take on Lewis or stay out? That question and much more will be answered in the hopefully much less smoky half of 2011 in our Land of Enchantment. Happy Fourth of July! We welcome your advertising and for a limited time have special summer rates. E-mail us for details, as well as your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Friday, July 01, 2011Friday Clippings From The Newsroom Floor: Metro Passes 900,000 Mark, Sanchez & Hispanics And Some Bottom Lines
 This kind of snuck up on us. The ABQ metro area just blew past the 900,000 population mark. That means nearly half our state's population of 2.09 million lives in Bernalillo, Sandoval, Valencia and Torrance counties, says a national biz group that keeps track of such matters.The 907, 755 population count as of July 1 makes us the 57th largest metro out of 942 ranked in the USA. Cracking the top 50 is not in the cards anytime soon. Buffalo-Niagara Falls holds the 50th ranking with 1,329,000 residents. But we have had steady growth. In 2000, the census bureau says the metro had a population of nearly 730,000. But things have been slowing down around here, particularly in Rio Rancho which had explosive growth until the housing bubble burst three years ago. With a paucity of new jobs coming in and the state reporting that our labor force is actually shrinking as people leave here to look for jobs elsewhere, the metro's population growth is going to be slower or even flat lined. Those who have sought to contain growth on ABQ's west side are getting their way. Maybe the benefit is that we catch up with the past. But the downside is evident all around as real estate remains in a glutted condition and jobs are as tight as a Scotsman. By the way, the Las Cruces metro area comes in with an estimated July 1, 2011 population of 214,887, ranking it #199 in the nation. SANCHEZ FILE  We didn't think this quote from John Sanchez that we ran on the June 20 blog was very incendiary:I think a lot of Hispanics in New Mexico can understand the struggles of lifting themselves into a better place," he said. "In the Hispanic culture it's all about the family. They are very certain about where they stand about protecting the unborn, about personal responsibility. For those reasons, I think my candidacy appeals to those voters. But Dom Lopez in Española got fired up about Sanchez's take: Your blog about John Sanchez running as the Hispanic candidate for Senate reminded me why I don't like him and his "story." Susana Martinez did not win the governorship because she told voters she was the "Hispanic" candidate. Susana won because she presented herself as someone who was qualified to change the way things are done in New Mexico. As a Democrat Hispanic who crosses over to vote for Republicans a lot, I find it very offensive when people tell me I need to vote for my race. That's what John Sanchez is saying when he says "I think my candidacy appeals to those [Hispanic] voters." It's not going to work, especially when you consider he doesn't have an education. We Hispanics don't vote for candidates who say they are "just like us." Instead, we vote for Hispanics who we aspire to be. That reference to education is Sanchez's lack of a college degree. Dave Finley of Socorro comes with this sidebar on that: Possibly the most famous U.S. Senator elected without a college degree was Sen. Robert C. Byrd of West Virginia. He was elected to the U.S. House in 1952 and to the U.S. Senate in 1958. While in the House, he began attending law school at night, receiving a law degree in 1963. He later received an undergraduate degree in 1994. He holds the record of longest-serving U.S. Senator and was both Majority Leader and Minority Leader during his tenure, which ended with his death last year. Among many other things, he was known as an expert on the Senate's history. ALREADY HERE There's not enough of them to force you to hide under the bed or turn off the tube, but the first political ads of the 2012 cycle are up and running in New Mexico: Crossroads GPS, a conservative-aligned outside organization, is pledging to spend $20 million over the next two months on ads aimed at shaping the national debate on jobs, the economy and the federal debt. The first wave of ads began airing Monday with a $5 million buy that will include national cable television as well as broadcast stations in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, and Virginia. The ads will run for two weeks. The ad, entitled “Shovel Ready,” takes President Obama to task over the economy. It details the rise of unemployment, gas prices and the national debt under Obama and argues that the economic stimulus package “failed.” MY BOTTOM LINES  Animal Protection Voters of NM comes with an early endorsement of Rep. Martin Heinrich for the Dem nod for US Senate:Martin has fought to protect the jobs, chimpanzees, and federal dollars at the Alamogordo Primate Facility on Holloman Air Force Base from leaving New Mexico. He is an original cosponsor of the Great Ape Protection and Cost Savings Act of 2011; he cosponsored a bill to ban horse slaughter and has voted in support of service dogs for Veterans, to ban animal “crush” videos, and against environmental exemptions for the largest factory farms in the United States.... Did we mention that around UNM Saggio's restaurant and Olympia Cafe are great places for a casual dinner and this time of year they aren't crowded?.... Thanks for joining us this week. Happy Fourth. This is the home of New Mexico politics. We welcome your advertising and for a limited time have special summer rates. E-mail us for details, as well as your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
Links |
