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Monday, November 07, 2011Speaker Lujan Nemesis Looking For Greener Pasture? Plus: Stalking John Sapien, Kiki Saavedra Backing Of Griego Draws Fire & Big Bill Back In Big Time?
Speaker LLujan & Rep. Jeff
  She's emerged as a major power player in the New Mexico House of Representatives, but is the often mercurial Rep. Sandra Jeff--chief thorn in the side of Speaker Ben Lujan--about to jump the fence and try heading for green pastures? If so, it's big news. That's because Jeff, whose district includes portions of McKinley and San Juan counties, has nearly single-handedly denied Lujan needed breathing room to control the lower chamber.Democrat Jeff joined with Rep. Andy Nunez--a Dem turned independent--to vote against retaining Lujan as speaker (Nunez voted present) and have often voted with the R's on key legislation, often depriving the speaker of a majority. The Dems control the House over the R's by a slim 36 to 33 margin, with lone indy Nunez rounding out the 70 member roster. It's nearly impossible to accurately forecast the future moves of politicians in Indian Country where Jeff hails from. The normal rules do not apply. But we do have Senior Alligators who are charged with navigating all the waters of our diverse La Politica. One of them checks in with news about Jeff that has made the rounds before, but is of more consequence next year's election closing in fast: I was at a luncheon Friday and met up with Sandra Jeff who reaffirmed that she will run next year against State Senator Lynda M. Lovejoy..." If Jeff hops out of the House to take on fellow Native American lawmaker Lovejoy, you have to believe that her replacement would very likely be a Democrat and nowhere near as anti-Lujan as she has been. Jeff running against fellow Democrat Lovejoy in the June primary would not be a shocker. The two are not known as kissing cousins--anything but. Also, Jeff may be thinking it might be a good time to take a gamble. After the way she ran roughshod over the speaker and the Dems she might draw a stiff primary challenge of her own in a bid for re-election to the House. Jeff leaving should actually be counted as a Dem pick-up in the narrowly divided chamber, seeing how she has voted so often with the GOP. It would be a significant pre-election shift, and relieve some of the pressure on the party as it works to retake firm control. But, as we cautioned, many a predictor has been left with broken glass after using their crystal ball to forecast political events in Indian Country. Still, this is a potential story with statewide impact that can't be ignored. STALKING SAPIEN  And how about another potential Democratic primary featuring an incumbent Senator? We could get one here in the metro as liberals contemplate the future of freshman State Senator John Sapien, an insurance salesman, who has gone deeply conservative.Environmental groups are said to be particularly upset with Sapien. Also, his down-the-line support of State Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur "Dr. No" Smith has alarmed more moderate D's. That has led to the charge that he is a DINO--"Democrat in Name Only." Sapien's current district includes a lot of conservative precincts in Rio Rancho, but insider experts believe when redistricting is completed by the courts, Sapien will lose most of Rio Rancho and take in more liberal precincts in Placitas. Corrales, that bastion of liberalism, is already in the district that Dem Sapein took four years ago when he ousted Republican Steven Komadina. Sapien has watched the redistricting maps taking shape but his liberal critics say he has not adjusted his votes accordingly and they want to take him out. And if they can't do that, they want to at least mount a challenge to make him work and spend campaign money. A defeat of Sapien or a good scare could shake up the conservative Dem powerhouses in the Senate who are seen as resisting the political shift going on due to the state unemployment crisis. Let's see if the libs find a contender or if Sapien starts swaying. IN THE VALLEY Rep. Saavedra  That recent endorsement of the ABQ congressional bid of Dem State Sen. Eric Griego by Rep. Kiki Saavedra brought this sharp-tongued retort from a South Valley Alligator who resented that Kiki called Griego a "South Valley native."At election time everyone wants some association with the South Valley. Any other time we never see politicians. Griego comes from Barelas which is not in the South Valley. The South Valley to natives is west of the river to Foothill between Central and the Isleta Pueblo and is a part of the Southwest quadrant. Unlike Griego who is a far left winger, South Valley people by a huge majority are social moderates and fiscal conservatives. Kiki Saavedra supports Griego to make it easier for (Republican) Jon Barela to win. Say what? Kiki wants to make it easy for Jon Barela to win? To that end, he hopes Griego gets the Dem congressional nomination and not the more moderate candidates--former Mayor Marty Chavez and Michelle Lujan Grisham? (Barela says he is considering running). Well, that's a fun theory but self-interest is the guiding light of our politicos. We see it this way... Saavedra is in no way connected to the liberal wing of the Dem Party that Griego represents. But he is up for re-election next year and there have been constant rumblings that Kiki, chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, could draw a liberal challenger. Labor unions have been particularly concerned about Kiki's voting behavior. He can't take the rumors lightly. Not after what happened to his good friend Dan Silva. He's the former Valley and West Side Dem rep who was taken to the cleaners in a Dem primary a couple of years ago by liberal Eleanor Sanchez and lost the House seat he had held for decades. Did Saavedra deliver this early and somewhat unusual endorsement of the liberal Griego to help him avoid a fate similar to Dan's? You can bet they are talking about it over the chicharrones. CALLING ALL HISPANICS No shocker here. With 2012 coming in sight, the White House is again wooing New Mexico Hispanics, who are essential to Obama's re-election hopes here. The news:It is our pleasure to invite you to join us at the White House Hispanic Community Action Summit in Albuquerque, New Mexico on Saturday, November 12, 2011 from 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. The summit will take place at the Pete V. Domenici Education Center of the National Hispanic Cultural Center located at 1701 Fourth Street SW, Albuquerque. The gathering is designed to connect senior Obama Administration officials from a wide array of policy areas with Hispanic leaders, business owners, and local officials to discuss issues critical to the Hispanic community, New Mexico, and the nation. The summit is part of a series currently taking place across the country. That's fine and dandy. But guess which group has been absolutely hammered by the jobs crisis? Working class Hispanics. This little jab from a conservative group landed in our email box about the same time as the ABQ summit news: One statistic in the latest national unemployment report that is particularly important to note is the increase in unemployment among Latinos to 11.4%... Well, it's certainly important to note if you are trying to make Obama run into a Hispanic headwind.... BILL REDEEMED?  Former Governor Big Bill is out on the circuit, enthusiastically pumping up President Obama for re-election. He appeared on "Meet the Press Sunday," prompting renewed speculation that Richardson might not be finished on the national scene. Could Bill, who lost out on his chance to become Commerce Secretary because of a pay-to-play scandal, see himself with a cabinet post or ambassadorship in a second Obama term? Why not? Another obstacle for Bill has been a long running pay-to-play investigation into New Mexico's investment funds, but it has not resulted in any indictments, making it appear the coast is clear for the former Guv to lobby the Prez for a post in exchange for working the stump for the embattled Obama. Where could Bill best help? Well, in most places--other than New Mexico. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Friday, November 04, 2011Lewis Gets Testy Over Barela's Waiting Game; GOP Congress Race Stalled, Plus: Griego Pushback On Electability, And: Heather Praises Pearce (Really) Dan Lewis is getting testy over Jon Barela. The constant speculation in GOP inner circles about Barela joining the race for the GOP US House nomination is making it hard for City Councilor Lewis and Janice Arnold-Jones to loosen the purse strings of big money givers. Barela, the current economic development secretary and the 2010 GOP nominee, told us this week he is still considering a bid for the seat. That was apparently enough to send ABQ City Councilor Lewis over the edge:The Democrats have fielded three well-funded candidates and it is time for Republicans to focus their effort on the GOP candidate willing to do the work and who has demonstrated both electability and fundraising strength—someone who is already in this race to win. Lewis and Arnold-Jones will be joined in the race this weekend by retired Army veteran Gary Smith who plans to avoid the GOP money squeeze by seeding his own campaign with as much as a couple of hundred thousand dollars by the end of the year. Lewis continues to try to free himself from the stranglehold the Barela decision has put on his fund-raising. He came with this: ...All the Republican Albuquerque City Councilors--Brad Winter, Trudy Jones, Don Harris, and Mike Cook, as well as all the Republican Bernalillo County Commissioners--Wayne Johnson and Michael Weiner, have joined together to host a major fundraiser for my campaign on Tuesday, November 29, from 5:00 to 7:00 PM, at the Chama River Brewing Company, 4939 Pan American Freeway in Albuquerque... This week we blogged how we spotted Barela meeting with Allen Weh, a former GOP Chairman who is a financial heavy-hitter. Speculation again mounted that Barela was close to getting in. He told us the possibility is still on the table. One thing we've learned--if Barela does get in the race he will be the front-runner but Lewis isn't going to be pushed aside. Ditto for Janice. GRIEGO PUSH BACK On the Dem side this week, State Senator Eric Griego scored a major endorsement when the Sierra Club backed his candidacy for the ABQ US House nod over that of former ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez and Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham. But in blogging about that "get" we noted that Griego's campaign continues to draw criticism from critics who claim he is too far to the left to be an effective general election candidate. Griego's campaign came with this push back: Rep. Martin Heinrich was also known as a progressive City Councilor with an identical voting record as Eric, and he continued to rack up a progressive voting record in Washington. He won in 2008 and was reelected even in the 2010 Republican wave against one of NRCC’s most highly-touted recruits that cycle, Jon Barela....Former Rep. Heather Wilson barely won reelection in 2006 with only 875 votes. Since then, Heinrich has proved that a progressive can win and hold the seat.... Meanwhile, Griego has come with some support from the center of the Dem Party. State Rep. Kiki Saavedra, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, says he is backing Griego: Eric is a native son of the South Valley who really understands the needs and aspirations of the community and has always stood up for South Valley residents. HEATHER PRAISES PEARCE Its never been a love fest between Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, but is there some warming up between the two GOP heavyweights who battled intensely for the 2008 US Senate nod with Pearce winning? Pearce is thought to be sympathetic toward Lt. Governor John Sanchez who Heather is running against for the 2012 Senate nod. That's why this bone Wilson threw Pearce drew our attention: "I think Holloman Air Force Base is at serious risk if we have another round of base realignment and closure...We've lost the F-22s. The F-16s are coming here. The F-16s are a legacy aircraft and will eventually go out of inventory. What is the future of the mission here? And how do we keep it here? I think Pearce has strengthened our delegation in Washington again. We need a U.S. Senator from New Mexico who understands New Mexico's unique contribution to national security and makes sure the Air Force has a place that they want to be here in the long term." Pearce and his fellow conservatives have much disdain for Wilson's so-called moderate version of Republicanism, but if Sanchez has trouble changing perceptions that his campaign is stalled out, Pearce and the major right wing money groups could accept the bone Heather is throwing. At least she hopes so. MENTAL HEALTH HOTLINE We'll leave you with an end of the week laugher. It's the "mental health hotline" and if you have had a rough week, they know all about it. From YouTube. Enjoy. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Reporting to you from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan E-mail your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Thursday, November 03, 2011TV Transparency: Stations Asked To Pony Up Political Ad Info, Plus: Jim Belshaw Ponders And A Hit On ABQ's Heroin Habit Despite the ascent of "new media," nothing dominates the modern political landscape like television. Nothing. Yet, when we try to tell you exactly how much the candidates are spending on their ubiquitous and often annoying TV ads we run into a roadblock. The information the FCC requires the TV stations to keep--their "public file"--can only be viewed in person at the TV station. In years past, we've had Alligators scurrying around town to each station trying to figure it out for you, but now comes a long overdue proposal. It could finally make accessible on your laptop the most valuable financial info behind today's campaigns:The Federal Communications Commission has proposed requiring television stations to post online information about their political advertisers. That information, currently kept in paper files at the stations, includes the names of candidates or groups requesting to run an ad, the reason for broadcasting the ad, the time and placement of the ad and its cost. Moving that information online to a website that would be run by the FCC has provoked concern from the National Association of Broadcasters... The broadcasters, who make millions each election cycle from these TV ads, complain that it would cost them extra cash to make the TV info easily available on line. Not very persuasive. Will any of the executives at New Mexico's leading TV stations--KOB, KRQE and KOAT--break with their national brethren and start posting the information that is the lifeblood of modern politics? That would be news. CORRALLING THE CASH This political system is besotted with cash. With a recent controversial US Supreme Court ruling, the green stuff is going to come raining down like a deluge in 2012. Good luck keeping up with who is spending what. And as for Congress drifting too far from the positions of their financial backers, another "good luck."NM Dem Senator Tom Udall comes with a long shot proposal at long overdue reform, but one supposes a long shot is better than no shot. The details: ...The proposed Constitutional amendment would authorize Congress to regulate the raising and spending of money for federal political campaigns, including "independent expenditures" by groups not formally connected to campaigns or political parties. The amendment would allow states to regulate such spending at their level. He said the amendment wouldn't impose any specific policies or regulations, but instead would allow Congress to pass campaign finance reform legislation that withstands constitutional challenges. How can Dems or R's stand for Wall Street and other regulatory reform when the beneficiaries of that system have so much power over their re-elections? It was not a problem FDR faced when he dealt with the last great business collapse. Isn't that why he was able to come with an elephantine response to the flaws in our system? And isn't huge campaign cash one reason why today even pea-sized change is met with so much resistance? PANIC BUTTON Will someone please shut off the panic button that is going off at the Educational Retirement Board (ERB) offices in Santa Fe? The retirement fund that state educators pay into and which then pays out retirement checks is not about to go under. Not now and not ten years from now. Not even close. One change is needed to ensure the fund's long-term stability and one change only--a minimum retirement age--say 60--before a retiree can get a check. In the past, the Legislature has looked skeptically at other measures that would make retirement even more challenging for educators. They should do so again and quiet that panic button that ERB staffers seem so anxious to push, BELSHAW PONDERS  Former ABQ Journal columnist Jim Belshaw wonders:Whatever happened to those 64,000 cases of possible "voter fraud" that Secretary of State Dianna Duran made so much noise back in the early summer? I know the State Police said "thanks, but no thanks," and then it fell from the radar. Where did they go? Well, Jim, back in June the state police actually did accept the responsibility of going over those 64,000 records, but then said they did not have the resources to investigate all 64,000 cases of alleged voter fraud. They are now acting in an "advisory" capacity. And you can bet a fresh batch of green chile that in the end this fishing expedition will end with an empty hook. If state police boss Gordon Eden(or SOS Duran) find even six cases of fraud that end in a conviction in court--never mind 64,000--we're buying them a plate of enchiladas at a restaurant of his choice. (Hey, Gordon and Dianna. If the miraculous happens and we have to buy the enchiladas, we do prefer Barelas Coffee House). HEROIN TOWN  "I've seen the needle and the damage done."---Neil YoungThe city is struggling with a heroin infestation in its public schools that has made for grim headlines of teens overdosing. We've been watching how Mayor Berry responds. His office now says: ...$100,000 for funding in association with Mayor Berry’s Working Group on Heroin and Opioids has been recommended for approval by the Albuquerque Business Education Compact (ABEC). The ABEC is a partnership of business, education and local government, charged with overseeing and recommending funding for “at-risk” youth programs...The group will create a general awareness campaign about the use of heroin and misuse of prescription drugs...The funding will also be used to address the longer term goal of creating better local treatment options. An awareness campaign is a start, but the Mayor and city council will be under increasing pressure to expand those sometimes expensive treatment options. And in related news: According to a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report, New Mexico leads the nation per capita in drug overdose deaths. New Mexico's overdose death rate is 27 per 100,000 people. The national rate is 11.9. Nebraska has the lowest rate of 5.5 per 100,000 people. But we'll end on another kind of high that can't hurt: ...Virgin Galactic has picked its first commercial astronaut pilot to help fly a passenger-carrying space plane to the edge of space and back. The company has tapped U.S. Air Force pilot Keith Colmer as its newest pilot for SpaceShipTwo, a private spaceliner designed to launch (from New Mexico's Spaceport America) on commercial flights into suborbital space. These voyages will zip up to about 62 miles, considered the boundary of space, without making a full orbit around the Earth. Good to hear. Frank, take us outta here... This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, November 02, 2011The Senate Chase: The Early Outlook And The Current Vibe; A Passion Gap? Plus: Gary Johnson's Goodbye
Heinrich, Bingaman & Wilson
 Jeff Bingaman is getting out just in time. The Senate veteran (30 years when he finishes) said in February he won't seek re-election next year. Ever since, the headlines have been filled with reports of possible threats to the state's massive Federal funding. That headache will be inherited by his successor. And who will that be?The National Journal has this take on the early action in the race for New Mexico's open US Senate seat: Both Democrats and Republicans face competitive Anglo-versus-Hispanic primaries here, but the likeliest match up would pit Rep. Martin Heinrich against ex-Rep. Heather Wilson. Both represented the same Albuquerque-area district, which is likely to be the race's biggest battleground. Wilson has a centrist record, though she's trying to downplay it in the GOP primary, and she would give Republicans a shot to compete. But New Mexico has trended very blue in recent years, making Heinrich the slight favorite. On the campaign trail, a fairly good but still mixed reaction to Heinrich at a Silver City stop, far from his home turf of ABQ. THE CURRENT VIBE  None of the Senate candidates has yet to ignite much passion. None has a track record that shouts, "I belong in the US Senate." And none are departing from traditional campaign messaging, even as the public gives the current Congress a pathetic 9 percent approval rating. The attitude in the state about these candidates seems to be "it has to be someone." Of course, once one of them is actually elected their status will soar and perceptions may change.But will any of the candidates end up inspiring the electorate by laying out bold ideas? Probably not. A statewide race in New Mexico is ultimately a race for the middle ground. The drift of the Republican Party to the far right has them standing out like a sore thumb to the large and influential swath of independent voters. The Democrats are muddled, but they don't get under the skin of the independents as much. The R's will go heavy negative on the Dem nominee to reshape that turf, but unless that nominee--Heinrich or Balderas--give them a defining mistake--the state will likely stay "lean Dem" right up until Election Day. The Senate candidates are not igniting passion not only because it is early, but because they aren't saying much of anything. Heinrich and Wilson, the front-runners for their parties respective nominations, seem to be wandering. Heinrich talks about creating manufacturing jobs without digging deeper into the economic malaise and Wilson offers similar palliatives (like cutting taxes) to her party's radical right as she trembles over its nominating power. The economic divide, stifled economic opportunity and widespread unemployment are what matters to voters. Will the Senate candidates highlight issues like this: The rate at which the 400 U.S. taxpayers with the highest adjusted gross income actually paid federal income taxes --their so-called effective tax rate --fell to about 18 percent in 2008 from almost 30 percent in 1995, IRS data show. That's the tip of the iceberg, since much of their wealth never converts into income on a tax return... The imbalance at the top of the economic pyramid that jeopardizes the middle classes, jobs for workers who don't have four year college degrees, the housing crisis, health care that doesn't mean you go bankrupt to get it and the state's massive federal funding that is increasingly endangered. Those are the issues that really matter. Whether we get an intelligent discussion of them in the forthcoming Senate campaign is "to be determined." THE CASH CHASE  That the campaign finance system is broken is one of those worst kept secrets. Running for Senate is like looking for a loan with bad credit--you keep asking everyone you know for cash. It is time consuming, riddled with potential conflicts and makes both parties essentially obligated to the same interests that have no interest in addressing most of the aforementioned issues. And as far as campaign finance reform that would free the candidates to speak their minds, it's like waiting for Godot. No wonder everyone is fed up with Congress.GARY'S GOODBYE It's just about all over for Gary Johnson. The former NM Governor's presidential bid was doomed when he was shut out of the media debates and now he has begun to write his own political obituary He described himself as underexposed and mistreated, and said he probably cannot continue in the race much longer. "There are five debates prior to the New Hampshire primary (on Jan. 10). If I'm shut out of all five, I don't see that I stand a chance in New Hampshire," Johnson said... Johnson gets kudos for breaking with the radical right of the GOP on several key issues, but it cost him any shot at becoming a serious contender. The Republcian Party that made room for Gary Johnson in the 1990's is long gone. BARELA UPDATE KOAT-TV picked up on the news we first broke here this week that state economic development chief and possible ABQ GOP congressional candidate Jon Barela is having some economic troubles of his own. A court has ordered Barela and a small group of investors to pony up $3.5 million to pay off a real estate loan on property at Tramway and Montgomery. Barela says he doesn't yet see the development as a "failed project." The station reported that the Governor's office is still "largely behind" the cabinet secretary. What "largely" means is left to the imagination of the viewer. NO NATIVES?  We haven't researched this yet, but we'll buy an enchilada lunch for the first two readers who can correctly answer this question from reader Jacob "Jackie" Block:If either Heinrich or Wilson wins the Senate race that means that we will not have a native born New Mexican in the U.S. Senate. Has this happened before and if so when? Okay, hit those history books and let us know. Happy Thanksgiving, New Mexico. E-mail your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011 Not for reproduction without permission of the author New GOP Contender For ABQ Congress As Barela Eyes Entry, Plus: On Dem Side Griego Gets Sierra Club Nod, And: Analysis Of Where Race Heads From Here
Smith & Barela
  Some shaking in the GOP race for the ABQ congressional seat. A new face will soon join the two contenders already out on the campaign trail, and he says he plans on seeding his campaign with a couple hundred thousand of his own cash by the end of the year. That means retired Army veteran Gary Smith, 64, is set to start off as the financial front-runner.Fund-raising by ABQ City Councilor Dan Lewis and former State Rep. Janice Arnold Jones has been anemic. Both reported well under $100,000 in cash at the end of September. But Smith, who has worked with military intelligence in Germany and Korea, is a political unknown making his first bid for office. His campaign says being an outsider is his strength but it is also his potential weakness. Smith has been splitting his living time between ABQ and El Paso. The Manzano High graduate, plans a formal announcement this weekend. And we have some news on Jon Barela and the possibility of him once again seeking the GOP nod after taking the prize in 2010, but losing the general election to Martin Heinrich. We ran into Barela Tuesday morning at the Flying Star in ABQ's North Valley. Asked point blank if he will get in the race, he gave his usual line that he is "considering" it. But the news was who Barela was meeting with. It was none other than former NM GOP Chairman, Guv candidate and financial heavy hitter Allen Weh. Weh offered a broad smile when we asked what he and Barela were up to. Weh has the street cred to help Barela raise the kind of money he would need for another congressional run. Were the pair talking about that? They wouldn't say, but we did see Weh give Barela a thumbs up as the two departed the restaurant parking lot. (Oh, the tea leaves we read for you...) Barela is currently the economic development secretary-designate. He's a "designate" because the state Senate has yet to confirm him to the position--even though they had plenty of time to do so. Leaving the Martinez administration to make another congressional run could pose personal financial challenges to Barela which makes his meeting with Weh all the more interesting. GRIEGO'S GET  On the Democratic side, the early action has the three US House candidates lining up early endorsements. And Eric Griego, the most liberal of the trio, just scored a biggie. The Sierra Club, one of the premier environmental organizations, has endorsed the ABQ state senator. They have a pretty good record of backing Dem primary winners, so this is an endorsement worth noting.Supporters of Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham and former ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez are chanting that Griego is too far to the left to win the district next November, but the news backdrop--Occupy ABQ, etc.--is currently favoring the more liberal contender. Griego's brash personality, which has cost him political support in the past, remains a concern to top Dems who fear an unleashed Griego could indeed cost them the seat they have held with Rep. Heinrich for two terms. They are watching closely how he is managed--and how he manages himself. THE ABQ OUTLOOK The ABQ district is lean Dem. Heinrich is now leaving the seat to run for the US Senate. Bernalillo County--the largest component of the district--has been getting more blue in recent cycles. Although the new boundaries of the district have yet to be announced--it will be crafted by the courts after the Legislature failed to come to an agreement--only about 15,000 votes of some 600,000 will be shifted around. It is not going to make a huge difference. Obama should run well in the state's largest county, making it more difficult for the R's to get the race in play as they did when Barela lost a squeaker to Heinrich in 2010. The R's are like the Dems--they think Griego is their best bet because they think they can paint him into the far left corner. They fear Chavez because in the past he has shown the ability to attract R votes. They worry about Lujan Grisham because she is a woman--in a district Heather Wilson represented for 10 years--and is relatively unknown. That makes her harder to define early. The Dems don't like the idea of running against Barela again. Although he might not be as strong as two years ago--the narrow loss hurt him--a Hispanic R is a good match for the district (Republican Manuel Lujan held it for many years). And Barela might have more fund-raising prowess than Lewis, Arnold-Jones or newcomer Smith. If Barela gets in he will be hit hard for leaving his economic development job. Dems will shout that Barela and company have a skimpy ten month record on jobs and already he is looking for a new job for himself. FIRST THINGS FIRST  Remember, the first key play in this congressional game is not the June primary, but the March pre-primary convention. If a candidate does not get 20 percent of the vote from the delegates there, he has to get extra petition signatures to get on the ballot. But, as regular blog readers know, no candidate who has failed the 20 percent test has ever gone on to win the June primary,We are about five months away from that pre-primary. Insiders think the three Dems--Chavez, Griego and Lujan Grisham all have a good shot of getting over the magic number. But the Alligators are less firm in their Republican outlook. If Barela gets in, he could count on Guv Martinez operatives to help. That could mean only two GOP hopefuls make the ballot. And the reason no candidate has gone on to win the June primary after being cut loose at the March pre-primary is money--or at least that's a major reason. Money goes to the winners. If you can't make the pre-primary cut you are seen as not having the right stuff to make it in the primary or in the United States Congress. No argument here. IN THE THIRD Are there other GOP candidates set to join businessman Rick Newton in the race for the northern congressional seat? 2010 contender Tom Mullins of Farmington still has not ruled out a run and Gary Montoya, also of Farmington, is also looking. Dem Congressman Ben Ray Lujan, however, is a prohibitive favorite to won re-election to a third term. GERALD GONZALES  From the offices of Democratic US Senator Tom Udall on the passing of Gerald Gonzales, his first chief of staff when he was elected to the US House in 1998:"Gerald Gonzales was thoughtful, intelligent and loved New Mexico, its people and our history. That is why I hired him as my first chief of staff in the House of Representatives. He had a long career in New Mexico government and Jill and I are saddened to hear of his passing. Our thoughts and prayers are with Gerald’s wife Carrie and his entire family at this difficult time." State Sen. Pete Campos came with this appreciation: Gerald Gonzales, served as an inspiration to me while growing up in Santa Rosa. His father was then Superintendent of the Santa Rosa Schools. Gerald was studious, intelligent and grounded in humility...I’ll never forget the evening I was visiting my uncle, the late Federal Judge Santiago E. Campos. Gerald called him seeking advice. While we were in the Judge’s kitchen I could hear my uncle say: "Gerald, being accepted into the Harvard School of Law is admirable. Congratulations--don’t let grass grow under your feet, pack your bags and go to Harvard. He did and the rest is history. Gerald enjoyed law, public policy, culture and who he was. He watched over me as a youth and engaged in regular discourse as I’ve served in the State Senate...He never stopped offering deep knowledge and insight. Adios mi Amigo y confidente. Gonzales, a Vietnam veteran, was a well-known New Mexico attorney who had a lengthy career. In addition to Udall, he served the Secretary of State, Attorney General and Santa Fe city and county governments. He was a graduate of NM Highlands University and Harvard Law. Gerald Gonzales was 68. He succumbed to cancer.... THE BOTTOM LINES Blog reader Stuart Heady provided us with information this week on tonight's fund-raiser for Democracy for New Mexico blog founder Barbara Wold, but DFNM says a clarification is needed: Barb has been diagnosed with metastatic colon cancer. Yes Barb is ill, and has been getting treated for her cancer. Barb is in great hands with a team of doctors, nurses, and many others. The discussion with these doctors revolves around living not dying. Barb is battling the cancer as countless others are every day. An appreciation for Barbara Wold is being held tonight at AFSCME Headquarters, 1202 Pennsylvania NE (off of Lomas). For more information, call Sisy Garcia at 505-730-9923.... ABQ PR maven Tom Carroll highlights a winning PR strategy each week--and the latest edition is this jaw dropper: Kim Kardashian had a wedding watched on TV by more than 4 million people. She pocketed $17 million for publicity rights to the wedding, among other things, and now she's filed for divorce after a ten-week marriage. Talk about a strategy! This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Tuesday, November 01, 2011Franco File: Gators Look At Heritage of First Gentleman In Wake Of Guv Episode, Plus: State Film Spending Bombing? And: Heather's Spending Exception Governor Martinez created a national headline explosion when she said her father's grandparents entered the USA illegally. The thud of that news was especially loud because she has so loudly trumpeted the cause of repealing the law that allows illegal immigrants to get a New Mexico driver's license. It also got the Alligator genealogists back on the beat. After piecing together the Guv's background, they now turn their attention to that of "First Gentleman"Chuck Franco, 55, husband of Martinez. He's a Las Cruces native retired from the Dona Ana County sheriff's department. Here is their report: Chuck Franco is the middle child of three. His older brother is Larry, married and lives in Organ, New Mexico. Younger sister Gina Marie Franco was born January 15, 1961, is married to a Daniel Selga, and lives in Las Cruces. Their father was Fredrick C. Franco, born September 1, 1926 in Los Angeles, California. His mother's maiden name was Camunes. On February 1, 2000 he died in Las Cruces. Their mother was Josephine Montoya, born June 26, 1926 in Las Cruces to Julian Biscara and Angelita S Cisneros Montoya, the youngest of six children. She died March 26, 2010 in Las Cruces. Here is a link to her obituary notice. Julian--Chuck Franco's grandfather--was born in Las Cruces to F. L. and Nicanora Montoya on November 2, 1884. Both of Julian's parents were born in Mexico, February 1865 and January 1869 respectively. Julian died in April of 1973 in Las Cruces. Angelita--Franco's grandmother--was born September 1, 1889 in Las Cruces, to Jose Angel and Martina Perez Cisneros. Her father Jose was born in New Mexico in Oct 1856, and her mother in Mexico in Feb 1864. Angelita died on May 25, 1961 in Las Cruces. By appearances, Chuck Franco's ancestors have been here longer than his wife's... The laid-back and outdoors loving Franco entered the public consciousness when in a state-of-the-state speech the Guv noted his fondness for baloney sandwiches. He serves on the board of the NM Coalition for Literacy and is also an instructor for Horses for Heroes--a program that teaches disabled veterans horsemanship and ranching skills. CRUCES ELECTION  And keeping it in the City of Crosses, it appears Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima is poised for re-election in next Tuesday's balloting in the state's second largest city. The latest indicator is this endorsement of his candidacy from the Las Cruces Sun-NewsThe economic downturn...has taken it's toll on government budgets...but Las Cruces has weathered the storm much better than most. There have been no furloughs, layoffs or reduced work weeks...Our success is due, in part, to the mayor's leadership. That's not to say the city has been immune. It has reduced spending by some $7.5 million in the last two years, and cut 16 positions from its most recent budget...And, sluggish tax revenue...indicates that more belt-tightening could be in order. But, the city's estimated $13.9 million in reserves is more than twice the amount required by the state. We have not always agreed with Miyagishima, and have not been timid with our criticism..But taken as a whole, we believe his four-year term has been successful... Miyagishima is being challenged by City Councilor Dolores Connor and political operative Michael Huerta. FAST FACT When we talk about the state's shrinking work force this is what we mean. In 2008, the state says the civilian work force averaged 909,809, In September of this year, the work force totaled 869,169. GOING DARK?  And what about film industry jobs? Well, the Guv urged that tax incentives for the industry be scaled back and they were. Now it appears there is trouble on the set. Movie producers are grumbling and state film production appears to have slowed. Blog reader Pat Davis, a self-described member of the professional left, writes that studio executives are not confident when dealing with the state.The NM Business Weekly cited one studio exec. who didn't want to be a political "whipping boy." This industry has given up on New Mexico and we now have (according to the NM Film Office) more than 3,300 film industry professionals who we, as taxpayers, invested in training and recruiting who now may be out of work and out of luck. As you pointed out on Monday's blog, more than 16,100 professional and business service employees (which includes film industry members) have left payrolls since 2007. Those big movie productions could have employed many of them. Not to mention the local tax revenues which could have been added to local coffers as those productions were in full swing. Not only did the Governor's insistence on reducing the film credits make us less desirable than other states (Louisiana and Michigan, for instance), but the political messaging that accompanied that push appears to have soured the industry in general on our great state. The incentives needed to be reined in but the state did not do itself any favors when it also threw in some Hollywood bashing by claiming the film incentives were detracting from educational funding. Looks like we are now paying the piper. NOT ALL SPENDING GOP US Senate candidate Heather Wilson may believe the federal government spends too much, but that doesn't include the federal largess that keeps the state's national laboratories up and running. Wilson continues to carve out an exception for that spending: ...Our national laboratories have taken on other national security responsibilities, including intelligence, and try to make sure that not only is our nuclear deterrent safe, for example, but seeking to understand what other countries are doing. And they play an important role in a lot of that. I think New Mexico needs a United States senator who is able to articulate the importance of that contribution and is willing to stand up and fight for it. Wilson, an Air Force veteran, faces Lt. Governor John Sanchez for the GOP US Senate nomination. Sanchez is embracing the tea party, trying to portray himself as more conservative than Wilson. He has not yet talked in detail about federal spending for the national labs. DID YOU KNOW? Rick Newton  A candidate does not have to be a resident of the congressional district he seeks to represent. He needs to be a resident of the state. But for all practical purposes, he really needs to live in the district. Otherwise, he is accused of being a carpetbagger. That's what happened to Dem Gary King when he relocated from the Moriarty area to Carlsbad in 2004 to run against GOP Congressman Steve Pearce. He didn't get very far. Monday a reader reported that Rick Newton, an ABQ businessman who will seek the GOP nod for the northern congressional seat held by Dem Ben Ray Lujan, recently signed a lease on property near Taos to establish residency. Newton's web site shows him to be active in ABQ area political and social affairs, but not in the north. Newton's site says he has a degree in electrical engineering and has had business contracts with the Defense Intelligence Agency, Navy Seals and other Special Forces. Insiders say he sold a sonar company for a considerable sum. That should give him some resources to defend himself against any carpetbagger charges. THE BOTTOM LINES The state's top income tax rate went from 8.2 percent to 4.9 percent under Gov. Richardson. The numbers we had in a first draft Monday were off. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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