Tuesday, August 19, 2014
A Guv Debate You Might Watch, The Latest Guv Poll Reverberates, Talk Radio Ratings Crash Continues, And: Our Bottom Lines
Here's a little pleasant surprise. Gov. Martinez and Gary King have agreed to a TV debate that actually may get some viewers. It will air October 19 on KOAT-TV from 6 to 7 p.m. While that is not quite prime time it is better than what the station has done with political debates in the past which is put them in the Sunday afternoon ghetto of 4 in the afternoon.
The two candidates have only one other confirmed joint appearance--a Sept. 22 forum before the NAIOP biz group. That, however, won't be televised and get this--the candidates will be supplied the questions a week in advance so they can prepare their answers. That's not a joke--but the joint appearance may turn out that way. . .
Martinez has rejected a debate at the NM Press Association and not responded to invites for ones before Congregation Albert and KNME-TV. It's called protecting the lead. If she stalls out look for more joint appearances. . .
And by they way, where are the debate invites from KOB-TV and KRQE-TV?
Expect Martinez to double down on her negative TV attack campaign against Dem Guv nominee Gary King. That Sunday Journal poll showing her right on the important 50 percent mark (King had 41%) but not over it, has recalibrated expectations among casual political observers and voters who may have thought she would have been higher. Some have speculated that Martinez's heavy negative campaign against King over the summer may have shaved not only some points from King but also few from her as voters recoil from the harshness. Her latest TV hit on King came late Friday as she again hearkened back to the 80's and his days in the Legislature to taunt him for voting for a tax increase. . . .
That Journal poll continues to reverberate. The liberal Daily Kos took a look and concludes that Martinez might actually be polling under the 50% mark the newspaper has her at:
There are a few big caveats regarding this poll. . .The survey only samples voters who turned out in 2010 and said they would likely vote again, which reflects a worst-case scenario for Democrats. The poll also weighs by "known distribution of age, gender, and party affiliation, based on the 2010 election." This is problematic for the same reasons. While it's very likely 2014 turnout will look more like 2010 than 2012, it's still a lot to assume this year will be a repeat of the last midterm. Longtime observers also know that weighting by party is a risky proposition, since political affiliation is much more fluid than gender or age.
Brian Sanderoff of Research and Polling which conducts the Journal's polls responds:
The sample we surveyed is not “the worst case scenario for the Democrats.” The worst case scenario for Democrats is that turnout will be even lower in 2014 than in 2010.
And given the lack of enthusiasm about this election thus far, that could happen.
TALK RADIO CRASH
In the radio business the poll that counts is done by the ratings firm Nielsen Audio. Regular readers will know we've been tracking what has been a breathtaking decline in the status of 50,000 watt KKOB-AM, the right-wing talk station that for years held the #1 market position. We have an update and it's more depressing news for the station. For the first time perhaps ever the station does not even command a five percent share of the audience that is aged 12 or older. Nielssen says its summer ratings show KKOB earning a 4.9 percent share. The station has suffered a nearly 50 percent drop in its audience from its peak of years ago. The #1 ABQ station in the latest ratings is 94 Rock, KZZR-FM, garnering a 5.2 share of listeners.
Joel Gay, communications director of the New Mexico Wildlife Federation, writes of our blogging from Taos last week:
I thought your comment about more "hunters, fishermen, skiers and rafters" keeping the Taos area afloat was right on. Outdoor recreation has always been part of what makes Taos unique and is why Taosenos strongly supported Rio Grande del Norte National Monument. Permanently protecting some 250,000 acres along the Rio Grande and in the plains above, from Ute Mountain to San Antonio Mountain and from Taos to the Colorado border, assures that future generations will have places with good hunting, fishing and rafting, not to mention livestock grazing, firewood collecting and pinon gathering. That means jobs and the ability to feed your family and keep your house warm. One reason President Obama used his authority under the Antiquities Act to designate the monument was because of the broad local support.
Does New Mexico have one of the best records in the nation when it comes to protecting our vast wilderness areas? Think so. And both Dems and R's have worked together for decades to achieve it. . .
THE BOTTOM LINES
Our summer reading of NM Governor Arthur Hannett's autobiography--"Sagebrush Lawyer," caught the eye of reader Dean Smith:
I'm happy to say that there is still one circulating copy of "Sagebrush Lawyer" available at the Albuquerque--Bernalillo County Library as well as a reference copy at Special Collections. And if you cannot borrow it to read in the comfort of your own home, what could be more relaxing than sitting in a leather chair by a Gustave Baumann decorated fireplace, on a Nancy Kosikowski rug and in the landmark 1925 'Old Main' Library on Edith and Central?
Try doing that on the Internet. Right, Dean?
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2014. Not for reproduction without permission of the author