Wednesday, May 04, 2016

Trump's Indiana Blow Out Sends His Victory Train Our Way; All Aboard? Susana Still On Fence; Analysts Weigh In On NM Prez Race 

The Trump victory train is headed our way for our June 7th primary but will everyone be on board, particularly one Governor named Susana Martinez? She's been unable to find her political footing during this historic contest. First she endorsed loser Rubio, then she attacked Trump behind closed doors and then she finally came to rest in a neutral corner..

Trump's unpopularity among Hispanics (77 percent disapproval in the Gallup poll) is putting the Guv between the proverbial rock and a hard place, providing glee for state Dems who came with this as Trump scored his historic Indiana primary win last night:

. . . Trump perpetuates racism against immigrants, has no realistic plan to improve our economy, is clueless on foreign policy, and continues to spread hatred wherever he goes,” said Debra Haaland, Chairwoman of the Democratic Party of New Mexico. “The New Mexico GOP’s endorsement should be a warning sign that Republicans in our state plan to follow Trump’s lead. . . Martinez can’t hide from reporters much longer—New Mexicans deserve an honest answer on whether our governor will stand with Donald Trump and his offensive remarks and reckless policy.

Martinez has her work cut our for her in how she comes down on the Trump nomination. State House Democrats are watching with special care as they look for any advantage they can get in their fight to retake control of the state House.

Over at GOP headquarters last night, if they were worried about Trump in New Mexico they weren't letting on:

With Donald Trump's win in Indiana and Ted Cruz dropping out, Trump has functionally secured the nomination," said Republican Party spokesman Tucker Keene. "We look forward to seeing Donald Trump in New Mexico and working with our nominee to defeat Hillary Clinton in November and delivering our five electoral votes for the Republicans.

Veteran political consultant, attorney and Dem politico Greg Payne has been analyzing Campaign '16 for us. He predicted the Trump nomination months ago. Last night he had these thoughts:

There will be a push for Trump to pick a VP nominee - preferably one with Establishment ties that will 'bring the party together'. Trump won't do it. He knows he doesn't have to pick a VP until just before the Cleveland convention. Trump's a showman. He's going to build suspense, float a few names and make a lot of politicians dance between now and then. And don't kid yourself, despite Gov. Martinez's last second endorsement of Rubio, and the nastiness she directed toward Trump, Susana will willingly dance the Trump Tango, if she isn't dancing it already.

Many Dems are thinking that Blue NM is set to hand Hillary Clinton a landslide here, but Payne is more cautious:

Democrats are delusional in thinking Trump is going to be a push-over. They don't want to have to fight--but this is going to be a tight race that Trump could win. And that Hillary wave NM Dems are expecting and counting on? It's going to be very small - if there's a wave at all.

Republican pollster and analyst Bruce Donisthorpe agrees that the Clinton-Trump race could be closer than currently thought, saying his extensive polling in the state shows deep dissatisfaction with presidential politics could lead to a  lower voter turnout than 2012 when about 772,000 New Mexicans cast ballots for the White House, Donisthorpe is already predicting we will not reach that number this year. How much lower we go, he says, will become more clear later in the year.


State Republicans will send 24 delegates to the national GOP convention in Cleveland in July and each of them will have to have fat checkbooks. An insider GOP memo reveals just how much cash those political eager beavers will need to cheer on Trump:

On May 21st the delegates to National will be elected at the Sandia Resort and Casino in Albuquerque. There will be a 30 minute meeting after the convention for those who are elected. That day there will be a $785 fee that will be due payable to reserve your place in Cleveland. You will be responsible for making you own flight arrangements however the RPNM will be making the hotel reservations for you. The total cost may run as high as $5,000, which will include the $785 down payment. 

That isn't scaring away the deep-pocketed R's. Some 150 of them are running for the delegate slots that will be contested.


Reader Ron Nelson writes of the potential 2017 ABQ mayoral field we blogged of Tuesday:

After rattling off your list of Mayoral wannabe’s all I have to say is we’re in deep shit.  Not one seasoned solid leader in the batch.


New Mexico First, a bipartisan public policy organization is hosting a town hall on the state's economy. Help create recommendations for New Mexico's leaders. Click here to register.


In our first draft Tuesday, we blogged that former Martinez fund-raiser Andrea Goff "testified" before the federal grand jury investigating Martinez political consultant Jay McCleskey for alleged campaign finance violations. She was a cooperating witness and gave her evidence to the Justice Department but did not testify. . .

The actual title of potential ABQ mayoral candidate Terry Brunner is USDA Rural Development State Director for New Mexico. We had it otherwise. . .

Democrat Pete Dinelli, a 2013 mayoral candidate, said his name should have been included on our Tuesday list of potential 2017 mayoral candidates. . .

95 year old Gene Lindsay, one of the state's most admired progressive Democrats with a long history of activism along with her late husband Bert, passed away recently. Ollie Reed gives her a fond farewell. .

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