Thursday, October 13, 2016
Campaign Chatter: Now Or Never For House Dems, Dems Seen Coming Home Here For Clinton, R's Fret Over Martinez-Sanchez Feud, Nora Blasts Back At Maggie And Mayor Berry's Time Machine
If Dems don't take full advantage of the Trump implosion and take back control of the state House from the R's next month, it will only be eveh tougher in 2018. Hillary will likely be president then and the '18 election will have the anti-Clinton crowd fired up. Combined with the lower turnout for an off year election, that would mean an uphill climb for the Dems. Right now it looks like an easy downhill ski slope, with the pick up of the three seats needed for the Dem to take control appearing quite realistic. But if they come up short, they'll be wandering in the wilderness for at least another couple of years. . .
With the election less than a month away political strategists say NM Dems "are starting to come home." They see no threat from Johnson or Trump and look for Clinton to come in with 42 to 46 percent of the statewide vote Nov. 8 and Trump somewhere between 35 and 39. Johnson remains a question mark, but he is fading from his peak as third party candidates do. His range is put at 10 to 15 percent. The Green Party's Jill Stein should pull 2 to 3 percent, say the strategists with the rest going to other minor party candidates.
R's who have never been fans of Gov. Martinez political adviser Jay McCleskey are wondering about that $1 million in cash on hand his Advance NM Now PAC reports having in the bank. Their concern is that too much of the cash will be pumped into a revenge campaign against Dem Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez when it should be going to defend the state House which now looks in peril of falling to the Dems. Martinez would like the political plum of picking off arch-enemy Sanchez but that shot is growing longer with the Trump meltdown.
With the US Senate now poised to return to Dem control, look for the rumor mill over Dem US Senator Tom Udall running for Governor in 2018 to quiet down, if and when Senate control is re-established. That will be abreak for ABQ Dem Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham who is exploring a Guv bid of her own but knows that Udall would be a formidable problem to overcome.
ESPINOZA BLASTS BACK
GOP Secretary of State candidate Nora Espinoza is hitting back over that TV ad being run by Dem contender Maggie Toulouse Oliver that links Espinoza to Trump on the issue of abortion.
. . . Long before either major party was even close to deciding its nominee for president or any other office. . . Nora Espinoza has repeatedly stated her position regarding all candidacies and ballot questions. . . The only office she is campaigning for is secretary of state, and the only candidate or ballot question she discusses is her own race for secretary of state. . .Toulouse-Oliver has attempted to turn the race for secretary of state into a referendum on the presidential election—repeatedly trying to link Espinoza with Trump. “A candidate for secretary of state should never say anything about other races, candidates or ballot questions,” said Espinoza, “that politicizes the office.”
BERRY'S TIME MACHINE
the Mayor says we should all feel good in the face of the city's highest crime rate in a decade and that is much higher than that of neighboring cities:
“I hear people in the community talk about crime being the worst it’s ever been, when that’s simply not the fact,” Berry said. “I think it’s important from an economic development standpoint and a citizen’s standpoint to have some data on that.”
Violent crime rose 9.2 percent in 2015 compared with 2014, and the property crime rate rose by 11.5 percent, according to crime data. But Berry said historical data shows the rates as measured by population remain much lower than some years during the 1980s and ’90s.
Thanks for that, Mayor. We're sure all the 30 year olds who weren't even born back then feel much better as they find their cars broken into and their homes ransacked by the rampaging meth heads who are looking more and more like our own zombie army.
Yet this nonsense and passing of the buck gets no reaction from the ABQ city council, the soon-to-be candidates for the '17 mayoral race or what passes for leadership in the business community. In Berry World it is always someone else's fault and there's not much he can do about it. Sadly, that seems just fine with everyone. It's like the the famous last line from the movie: "Forget it Jake, it's Chinatown."
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2016