Today's Election Eve Special on KANW 89.1 FM ABQ/Santa Fe and kanw.com begins at 5 p.m. with my panel of guest experts. We look forward to having you with us. More details on the program are in today's blog. 

The dust continues to settle on the ABQ mayoral race this election eve. When it clears tomorrow night it appears the city will be in for a partisan run-off to determine the ultimate winner.

The latest ABQ Journal poll released Sunday clarified the heated battle for second place and who will join front-runner and Democrat Tim Keller in the nearly certain run-off election that would be held November 14. We asked analyst and Dem attorney Greg Payne, a former ABQ city councilor, state representative and longtime political strategist, to sum up where the contest stands:

The Republicans are resolving their debate over Dan Lewis and Wayne Johnson. Lewis has moved to 18 percent and Johnson is at 10 percent. That's a big divide and should  hasten the Republican drift toward Lewis making it possible for him to take second place and face Keller, who is the obvious first place finisher, in a run-off. 

In the late going Lewis appears to have benefited from endorsements from the National Rifle Association (NRA) and the ABQ Journal. He has been running conservatively in the final hours--appearing at gun shops to tout his NRA endorsement and airing a TV spot saying he will hold judges accountable for the city crime wave. That's the way the R's like their politics.

Veteran media buyer Chris Brown in Santa Fe says Lewis ended up spending about $50,000 on TV the final 8 days, below the initial $68,000 a political operative had it pegged, but still healthy.

BY THE NUMBERS

Keller, who has tapped into the Dem Progressive vote, pulled 29 percent in the final Journal survey taken Tuesday thru Thursday. That's down from 33 percent in the PPP poll taken last Sunday and Monday and released on your Thursday blog. And it's up from 25% in the first Journal survey in mid-September. Both polls have MOE's of about 4 percent.

La Politica old timers noted that in 1997 when another mayoral candidate billed himself as a "Democratic Progressive" in a seven way race he received 29 percent of the vote. That was Jim Baca and because there was no run-of provision at the time he was elected ABQ's mayor. This year a candidate must receive 50 percent of the vote to win outright, highly improbable given where the race stands. (In '17, we also now have 7 candidates as Ricardo Chaves dropped out and endorsed Lewis).

Here are the complete Journal numbers:

Keller 29%, Lewis 18; Colón 14; Johnson 10; Garcia Holmes 4; Pedrotty 4; Wheeler-Deichsel and Ricardo Chaves, who dropped out of the race Thursday and endorsed Lewis, were both at 1%. 18 percent of the voters were still undecided. 

For Keller, a Lewis victory is just what he's hoping for. A partisan face-off in a heavy Democratic city would bode well for his chances to win in November. His most feared threat is from former NM Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colón but Colón only managed 14 percent in the Journal poll, the same as he had in the paper's mid-September survey. The lackluster performance is a major disappointment for Colón who raised over $800,000 for this campaign, far more than anyone else.

If the Journal and PPP have it right, Colón would be that rare example of a candidate who spends the most money yet fails to take the prize or even the consolation prize of second place.

UPDATE: Working the beat over the weekend for you, we were informed of fresh polling conducted Sunday night by a business interest that confirmed the Keller-Lewis trend, with Keller breaching the 30 percent mark and Lewis going over 20 as more voters made up their minds with just hours before the polls opened. 

BRIAN AND HECTOR

Colón and Balderas

The apparent Colón fade is a body blow to the prestige of Attorney General Hector Balderas, the BFF of Colón who cut a TV spot for Colón that helped move the Hispanic numbers toward his friend but then the campaign hit the wall.

Colón is only garnering 25% support among Hispanics while Keller is right behind him at 21%. An insider close to Balderas told us: "He can't wait until this thing is over."

Balderas will seek re-election next year as attorney general and is heavily favored, but he has also made an early endorsement of Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham for the Dem nod for Governor. If that should go awry, the AG would really be in the political back seat.

JOHNSON'S JAM

Wayne Johnson ran tough but he was always facing a stiff wind as the GOP was embroiled in an internecine battle between the the forces of Gov. Martinez and those who opposed her and led by former GOP Chairman Harvey Yates, Jr. and Congressman Steve Pearce who is the likely '18 GOP Guv nominee.

Ryan Cangiolosi, a former employee of oilman Yates, is now the party chairman and a good friend of Lewis's. Johnson was embraced, although not publicly, by Martinez, her chief political adviser Jay McCleskey and former GOP National Committeeman Pat Rogers who was ousted from that post by Yates. But the books are slowly closing on the Martinez era and the Yates-Pearce faction is taking the party back.

Unfortunately for Lewis, who has called for GOP unity for this election, Johnson, according to insiders, is in no frame of mind to endorse Lewis if he makes the run-off. The bitterness and rancor between the two GOP factions runs deep.

EVEN MORE 

The blogs are monstrous in size as we continue to labor to be your #1 source for the inside workings of Campaign '17. So now more Alligator analysis that helps us get the job done:

Lewis is probably going to be helped by the competitive city council race in his district. Colón is stalled and nothing at this point will really change that. Interesting that the candidates supported by various political establishment operations are faltering — the McCleskey/Martinez candidate, Wayne Johnson, and the Balderas candidate, Brian Colón. Can the establishment figures in Santa Fe like Balderas or the Martinez folks win the big races anymore? Shows people want a change from the normal political operators. Lewis should just get over 20% and Keller should just get over 30% and they’ll be in the runoff.

POLL DEBATE

For those who don't believe in polls and point to Trump's win as evidence that they are useless, remember they are more accurate when detecting a trend that is clear and bold such as the Keller lead. And in this last Journal survey (and PPP's) there's something else to keep in mind--not a few of those surveyed had already actually cast ballots by early voting. That increases the accuracy of the surveys.

FREE FOG LUNCH


So what's FOG? It's the NM Foundation for Open Government (FOG). The two lunch tickets we are giving away today are to the annual FOG lunch at noon tomorrow at the Embassy Suites Hotel. The event celebrates government transparency. Individuals who have contributed greatly to that movement will be honored as transparency "Superheroes." The lunch tickets are $60 each but free to a lucky blog reader who can answer this question conjured up by FOG executive director Peter St. Cyr:

Today the "cone of silence” isn’t a Hollywood stage prop. It’s more of a slang phrase when governing bodies collectively refuse to release public information. On what TV episode did the Cone of Silence first appear?

You got us stumped, Peter. Let's see if one of our readers know. Email your guesses. First correct answer wins the lunch tickets and the chance to help celebrate transparency in New Mexico.

TURNOUT TAKE 

About that early vote, we ended with about 42,000 being cast. In the 2013 mayoral race, according to pollster Sanderoff, 47 percent of the vote was cast early. Since then early voting has gained in popularity so the political pros are saying that this year it will represent between 55 and 60 percent of the total vote.

If the number is 55 percent, that would mean about 33, 000 or so votes will be cast tomorrow, giving us a total turnout in the vicinity of 75,000. That' still low, but it beats the 70,000 turnout in 2013 which was the lowest raw vote total for a mayoral race since the 1970's.

SICK LEAVE UNCERTAIN

The final Journal survey had the proposed sick leave ordinance declining in popularity from 53% in its mid-Sept. survey to 48% in the final polling last week. 44 percent were  opposed. 8 percent remained undecided. Note that the undecided of 8 percent contrasts with the high 18 percent undecided in the mayoral race. Strong views have developed on the controversial proposal as debate intensified. The mayor's race has generated less passion.

Michael Horanberg, the political director for the NM GOP which opposes the measure, says they are increasingly confident that they can eke out a victory against the measure which would mandate sick leave for all city workers. "A lower turnout environment favors our side," he argued.

Analyst Payne said he was surprised that 23 percent of the Democrats survey opposed the sick leave ordinance but agreed that a low turnout dominated by an older electorate means a more conservative turnout. Along with stepped up negative campaigning against the proposal, that could be a key reason why it's run into trouble in the final days.

ELECTION EVE SPECIAL 

Buffett

There's plenty to talk about on this day before the final voting in the city election and we'll do just that on our traditional Election Eve special which kicks off today at 5 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com.

Joining me for an in-depth look at the mayoral race, the sick leave ordinance and the bond issues on the ballot will be former GOP City Councilor and State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, veteran Dem strategist and consultant Sisto Abeyta, former BernCo GOP chairman Rick Abraham, ABQ attorney David Buchholtz and longtime Dem activist Sandy Buffett.

Tuesday night--Election Night--our wall-to-wall coverage on KANW begins at 6:30.

We look forward to having you with us once again and appreciate your continued interest and support.

VOTING TOMORROW?

If you are planning to cast your vote tomorrow check out the League of Women Voters Central NM Guide for the 2017 city election. It discusses all the candidates and issues on the ballot. The ABQ Journal election guide is here. And there are mayoral candidate interviews posted on the sites of KOAT, KOB and KRQE. Voting locations for the city election are here.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017