Monday, May 28, 2018

Memorial Day Blogging: Catching You Up On The Final Polls  

The TV attacks on her from Joe Cervantes didn't have much impact, according to the polls, but Michelle Lujan Grisham, the front-runner for the Dem Guv primary nomination, will close out her media campaign with one ad that shoots down the claims against her, including that she voted to repeal Obamacare which the ad asserts she "never" did.  It is a low-key, mildly announced commercial that calls his ad “ridiculous” but never mentions Cervantes.

Another ad takes her campaign in a positive direction. Well, kinda of.

In this final week ad she begins by reciting some of the downer statistics facing the state's education system--47th in math; 49th in reading; 50th in K thru 12--and then says as Governor she'll invest in pre-K, math and science, apprenticeships and reduce student loan debt. She concludes with what might be her new slogan: "We Will Change This."

In our May 24 poll of likely Democratic voters education was their number one concern.


Here's our take on the final polls in the '18 Guv contest:

The enormous lead MLG has in the ABQ Journal poll released Sunday matches the one we showed on our Wednesday, May 24 robocall poll. The Journal awarded her 57 percent; the blog poll had her at 54. In the Journal Jeff Apodaca scored 15; in the blog 18. Joe Cervantes received 9 percent in the Journal and 11 percent in ours. The paper had undecided at 19 and we had it at 17.

In other words, there's little doubt that MLG will be the Democratic nominee to face Republican Steve Pearce in November when we tally the results June 5 on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com.

From the beginning Democrats have been comfortable with the ABQ congresswoman and she endured little criticism in the primary. Cervantes gave it a shot but the bullets fell well short of their target. Apodaca won the passion contest but could not translate that into widespread support.

The main event promises to be more challenging for Lujan Grisham. Underdog Pearce will work to not only challenge her on the issues, but on character, if he is to have nay hope for the upset. His campaign is eyeing the same MLG business dealings that Cervantes targeted and they will also gnaw away at her as temperamental and unable to work with others. Their not so subtle implication is that if you didn't like Susana Martinez you aren't going to like Lujan Grisham.

Next Tuesday night, however, she will address a unified majority party, with an army surrounding the ABQ metro ready to fend off Pearce who must make major advances here.

A Pearce-Lujan Grisham campaign will not just be a study in contrasts, it's a study of two candidates whose approach to life and politics is worlds apart. Even Jeff Apodaca and Joe Cervantes will want to stay around for that show.


There was some salve put on Cervantes' polling wound Sunday when the Las Cruces Sun-News, his hometown newspaper, gave him their editorial endorsement. MLG earlier won the endorsement of the Journal and New Mexican.


In the first draft of the Friday blog we erred and referenced "illegals" when the proper term is undocumented immigrants. Margaret Montoya, UNM Professor Emerita of Law, commented:

“The illegals trying to get over the great Trump wall with that thing will be flooding the injury lawyers with business.” That’s what you wrote. . . Explain specifically to your readers why it’s accurate to use this despicable. . . word “illegals” to label a diverse group of people, many of whom will labor and contribute to NM’s economy for meager wages and be more law abiding when compared to the citizenry. Do you even know what laws they allegedly break when they cross without documentation? Why designate one group of unconvicted law breakers as “illegals,” except to further a divisiveness. . . If you were writing ironically, it was lost on me. 

For years the term "illegal immigrant" was the standard journalistic term. It was only five years ago that the AP dropped its use. However, in one of the TV ads for Congress in the southern district this year the term is again employed. We've long used the phrase "undocumented immigrant" but in that Friday piece we slipped into the old usage and corrected it.

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