Sorber, Journal

After we wrote this blog the first negative TV ads against Pearce began Tuesday morning, paid for by a political action committee. The ad calls Pearce one of the most "corrupt" members of Congress. The name of the PAC is "Strong New Mexico" and is funded by the Democratic Governors Association. The ad is here.

State Republicans quickly latched on to a new poll Monday that showed Republican Guv nominee Steve Pearce trailing Dem contender Michelle Lujan Grisham by the narrow margin of 42-40 with 18 percent undecided. The state party argued the Emerson Poll out of Massachusetts "shows the race in a statistical tie, giving local and national Democratic Party leaders plenty of reason to panic."

Well, no signs of panic in the Dem camp yet. One reason is that the Emerson survey is another of those that do not do live cellphone interviews, relying on landlines and an on-line panel of voters. Also, the poll does not call "likely" voters but only registered voters who say they plan on voting. Likely voters are those who have a demonstrated history of voting in recent state elections. Emerson said the margin of error in the survey of 500 registered voters August 17-18 is 4.6 percent.

Still, with few organizations willing to put up the cash for the more expensive cellphone surveys, they garner attention. And polling experts say in lower turnout mid-term elections their accuracy tends to be better than in higher turnout presidential years. Perhaps the best way to view this is by averaging all the polls--no matter the methodology.

So far in the race of Governor there are only two public polls. The aforementioned Emerson poll and the SurveyUSA conducted for KOB-TV June 19-23. SurveyUSA had the race 51 to 38 in favor of Lujan Grisham and Emerson had her up two. So the average of those polls has her leading Pearce by 7.5 percent. If that were the case on Election Night she would win by 54-46.

CONCERN IN NORTH

There is concern in the Democratic camp about the Hispanic North, a traditionally Democratic area that Pearce has worked hard. In the Emerson survey Pearce actually beats Lujan Grisham in the northern congressional district 46 to 42.

That will be greeted with a large dose of skepticism but anecdotal evidence shows Pearce making progress with Hispanic men. He was just endorsed by former NM Dem Governor Jerry Apodaca and he has numerous signs up in the northern district. With men overall Pearce beats MLG 45 to 38 while she has a lopsided lead with women--45 to 36.

Lujan Grisham's campaign is aware of the gender gap and this week rolled out a video endorsement of her candidacy from Las Cruces area State Senator Joe Cervantes who she beat in the recent Dem primary, along with Jeff Apodaca, son of the aforementioned Jerry Apodaca who continues to egg on her opposition.

MLG TOO VANILLA?

Among some of the Alligators Lujan Grisham's TV is derided as "too vanilla" and then there's the progressive wing's disappointment with her statements to the ABQ Journal in which she threw them overboard on key issues. Those are matters that could be holding back enthusiasm for her.

Pearce's TV ads are getting better reviews. All of them have a single-minded focus on jobs. He came with another this week in which he teases that New Mexico might be able to get an Amazon fulfillment center, although the tech company recently passed over the state for its new headquarters.

Most important for the Dems, MLG's firewall in the ABQ area, which she represents in the Congress, continues to hold in the Emerson poll where she leads 48 to 32. That's the most populous of the three congressional districts and where voters are expected to cast ballots in a higher percentage than the rural areas where Pearce is strongest.

So no panic yet for the Dems as much as the GOP would like to see some. But Pearce is defying the Democratic optimists who had hoped by now the race would be closed out in a state with such a clear Democratic majority and an unpopular incumbent Republican Governor who earned only a 30 percent approval rating in Emerson (Trump had a favorable rating of 35 percent).

STILL PEACEFUL

MLG and Pearce appeared together before an ABQ business group Monday where they both answered the same questions, but there was no negativity between the two. In fact, there may be gasps over the photo posted at the top of the blog of the gubernatorial combatants giving each other a hug at the conclusion of the hour long session.

Some Pearce supporters are already nervous that he is waiting too long to build the negative case against MLG while her camp is pretty much ecstatic that he is taking his time. Then there are the Trump supporters who look at this snapshot today and say, "No surprise. Both are DC swamp creatures!"

Anyone who likes green chile knows that both of the hopefuls have their itchy fingers on the negative campaign trigger and are ready to fire. The only suspense is who will pull their trigger first.

As for the joint appearance before NAIOP, when an event ends with a headline about how Pearce and MLG squabbled over the dead-as-a-doornail issue of right-to-work, that's a win for the Democrat.

SENATE NUMBERS

Emerson also surveyed the NM US Senate race. Dem Senator Martin Heinrich polled at 39 percent while former GOP Governor Gary Johnson, running as a Libertarian, came in with 21 and Republican Mick Rich at only 11 percent. The Rich number was the eyebrow raiser but he has raised little money and done no major media. And Johnson pulls significant GOP support having been their Governor for eight years.

The problem for Johnson is that his name ID is near 100 percent in the state. How does he make a major polling leap when folks already have firm opinions about him? That 21 percent number is about where he started in NM when he ran for president as the 2016 Libertarian nominee. He ended up getting 9 percent here on Election Night. Could that scenario be repeating and Rich, with hardly any name ID, gets the biggest surge in the next poll as GOP voters come home?

HELPING HEINRICH

In a way the Johnson challenge could actually help Heinrich. His critics accuse him of "going Washington" and being detached from New Mexico. They point to his deep involvement in the Russia story and esoteric national security issues. It probably wasn't coincidental that Heinrich's first TV spot shows him driving a pick-up truck and meeting up with ordinary New Mexicans across the state. The ad guys probably heard Gary's footsteps when they cut that spot.

By the way, while the Libertarian Party of NM is heavily promoting tonight's ABQ kick-off of the Johnson campaign in ABQ, they say the event is actually being paid for by the SuperPAC supporting his run.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018