Monday, October 22, 2018New Mexicans Like Their Early Voting; The Latest Totals And Trends, Plus: Oddsmaker Odds On Guv Run, Heinrich And Rich Clash Over Saudi Oil, Clingman Clocked In Supreme Race And Villanucci Back On ABQ Radio The first day of widespread in-person early voting Saturday brought a surge of voters to the polls. By day's end the Secretary of State reports 72,713 had cast ballots in all forms of early voting, including absentee balloting, since it got underway October 9. A complete county by county breakdown is here. For those voters this campaign is history. They can ignore the negative TV ads, the harangues in their mailboxes, the incessant political phone calls and the rhetoric blaring from their radios. That's quite an incentive to make an early trek to the voting booth. Those 72,000 voters probably represent nearly 12 percent of all voters who will show up for this election, assuming turnout is 625,000 or 50 percent of the state's registered. The experts are looking for at least 60 percent of the total vote to be cast early. (We've upped our turnout number from 600k after consulting a number of veteran observers but there is more uncertainty than usual to the turnout predictions). The first day of early in-person voting is the most popular, along with the very last day which comes just three days before the actual election day November 6. There is still time for major shifts in the races, although the window closes more with each passing day. BATTLE OF THE BASES If you needed any convincing that this midterm--like those previously--is about a battle between base voters of the Republican and Democratic parties, there is plenty of evidence. Only about 11 percent of the voters cast so far come from independents, although they make up 22 percent of the registered. Dems have about 46 percent of the state's registered but their early turnout is 55.6 percent. That's a good start, even if it is destined to come down. Republicans have 32.6 of the registered and in the early vote they have cast just 30 percent of the ballots. History tells us that will increase in the days ahead.  Saturday's big early vote start had our intrepid Guv candidates seeking to strengthen their hands. GOP hopeful Rep. Steve Pearce hosted a matanza with southern congressional GOP hopeful Yvette Herrell at Bernardo near Socorro. That is in the congressional district Pearce represents and that he hopes will have a heavy turnout. But he also spent time this weekend in vote rich BernCo and Santa Fe, places heavy with Dems and where it is essential he cuts his expected losses.Dem contender Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham is aiming for a voter surge in her own congressional district in the ABQ area. She spent the weekend campaigning here to encourage early voting. However, like Pearce, she also attended a matanza. It was in Rio Arriba County where R's say their polling suggests some weakness for her among rural Hispanics who are heavy Dem but socially conservative. That may have sent MLG scurrying north. She has a TV spot about sheep herding aimed squarely at this weak spot--if that's what it is. Former NM GOP chairman Harvey Yates, Jr. says he is looking at matching her TV appeal to rural Hispanics. A PAC he heads recently came with a social media video featuring ranchers disgruntled over what they called the too progressive leanings of the Dem Party. Yates thinks giving that ad more exposure could help Pearce.
TWO DOWN ONE TO GO
MLG has now nailed down two of the three editorial endorsements from the state's major newspapers. The Las Cruces Sun-News was first. Now she has been given the nod by the Santa Fe New Mexican: She gets that the essential issue facing the state is poverty. Fix that, and all else follows. . .For once, New Mexico will not go unarmed into this war. There is money to purchase necessary ammunition, in the form of the $2 billion (statute surplus). Now, the state deserves a commander on the field who understands the stakes. . . The ABQ Journal is also expected to endorse MLG. Sunday the paper endorsed Republicans Janice Arnold-Jones and Yvette Herrell for their respective US House races; Dem Congressman Ben Ray Lujan as well as Dem Sen. Martin Heinrich. ODDSMAKER ODDS  Meanwhile, that newspaper's second and final poll of the state races is anticipated for next Sunday.The polling/pundit site FiveThirtyEight sees MLG scoring the win November 6, giving her an 87 percent chance of victory. In the southern congressional race between Herrell and Dem Xochitl Torres Small the polling site sees a narrow Herrell win. How narrow? Less than one percent of the popular vote. They peg Herrell's chances of taking the prize at 55 percent. The southern contest has attracted millions in out-of-state PAC dollars but according to national observers rural districts that voted for Trump but are being contested this cycle by Democrats--like our southern CD race--could be drifting to the R's because of a helpful news backdrop. That includes the controversial Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearings and that caravan of Central American migrants making their way to the US that is garnering heavy media coverage. President Trump is making major issues of both those stories and that could resonate in the GOP leaning south. That excludes much of Las Cruces where Dems still hope to pull off the congressional upset with a dramatic rise in voter turnout. MARTIN'S 2ND TIME Senator Heinrich didn't have much luck influencing the Democratic Party in the June primary race for state land commissioner. His favorite, Garrett VeneKlasen, was soundly defeated by Dem Stephanie Garcia Richard. But Heinrich is giving it another try. He now backs Garcia Richard and this week organized a hike in the Sandias on her behalf. Garcia Richard is in a tight contest with Republican and former Land Commissioner Pat Lyons so Henrich's help is welcome. However, her latest TV spots are drawing mixed reviews. You can see one here. Garcia Richard is now getting major TV help from an enviro PAC that could help her level the playing field with Lyons who is getting heavy oil and gas PAC support. CLASH OVER OIL
Sen. Heinrich on Sunday called for the U.S. to ban oil imports from Saudi Arabia over the death of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Heinrich released a statement days after the Saudi government acknowledged that Khashoggi died inside its consulate in Istanbul. "The United States cannot allow this gross human rights violation to go unanswered,” Heinrich said. “I am therefore calling for a ban on oil imports from Saudi Arabia until the highest levels of Saudi government are held accountable for their actions.” Heinrich's GOP opponent, Mick Rich, said punishing American consumers is not the answer to the problem: I do not approve of what happened to the journalist but the response that every American should pay fifty cents to a dollar more per gallon of gas is not the answer. That's how out of touch Martin Heinrich is with New Mexico. Heinrich says he also supports suspending arms deals with the Saudis but again Rich sees it differently: What we don't want to have is a knee jerk reaction to this situation that plays into the hands of the Iranians and that's what Martin Heinrich is doing. Heinrich is a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. Libertarian Gary Johnson is also running against him. CLINGMAN CLOCKED
Now Gary Clingman, a district court judge appointed to the high court by Gov, Martinez, is giving it a shot. But his hopes are fading fast amid the discovery that when he served as an Odessa, TX. police officer he was fired for beating a black man who had moved to Odessa from ABQ. The man, Sylvester Talbert, has now come forward and is interviewed about the 1979 incident. To say the least, the video is very damaging. Clingman said he was fired because he interfered when his partner got into two fights with Sylvester Talbert. But Talbert, tracked down by the PAC police, says Supreme Court Justice Clingman "beat the hell out of me." He also accuses the officers of repeatedly calling him the N word. Dem Court of Appeals Judge Michael Vigil, who lost to Nakamura in '16, is challenging Clingman for the Supreme Court seat. VILLANUCCI RETURNS  Beginning today he will host the 4 to 7 PM time slot on sports station ESPN 101.7 "The Team." However, it won't be a sports show but will be dubbed "Sports Talk and More" says station manager Joe O'Neill: “The range of this show is as unlimited as Jim’s talent." Villanucci, whose politics are in line with Libertarianism, left KKOB amid management changes. He says he has lived a colorful personal life since then which no doubt will be part of his daily banter from his new ABQ perch. He will be going up against some tough competition from KKOB as well as KIVA-AM-FM radio where Eddy Aragon holds forth each weekday. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.   (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018 |
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