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| Monahan And Senior Alligator |
In a stunning reversal of fortune for the GOP, Democrats picked up seven House seats in the ABQ metro in the Blue wave of 2018. It left the Rs gasping for air as their ranks in big Bernalillo County were reduced to a last man standing--Rep. Bill Rehm. When the wave receded the NM House had 46 Dems and 24 R's--the biggest D majority in years.
But will the Dems hold on in 2020 or give back some seats that perhaps came too easily? Or is Republican Red a color that is as out of style as handwritten letters? House R's are trying to get back in the game, saying this week they are advocating a "moderate agenda" which seems aimed at toning down their Trumpian ties.
We now take a look at every key race in the ABQ metro with a Senior Alligator of the Dem variety. It's insider info you will only get here. And we're off. . .
Joe, the metro area will be the center of the battle for the House. Many of the tightest races will involve these first-term incumbents defending their seats against a new crop of Republican challengers.
1) House District 27 in the NE Heights will be the most watched House race in the metro area. It features incumbent Dem Marian Matthews and GOP challenger Robert Godshall, who lost to Bill Pratt by only 193 votes in 2018. Matthews was appointed to serve out the term of Rep. Pratt, who passed in December 2019. Godshall was nominated to replace GOP Rep. Larry Larrañaga on the ballot after he withdrew because of illness and later died.
Our comment: If the Dem blue wave for the metro House seats is going to continue in 2020 the Matthews-Goodshall race will provide an early clue Election Night. The area has been a GOP stronghold for decades.
2) DISTRICT 68--Most observers believe the only reason that Democrats captured this district on ABQ's westside in 2018 is because GOP incumbent Monica Youngblood got busted for DWI, and the police video from the event revealed her efforts to parlay her elected office into a get-out-of-jail-free card. But Hillary Clinton narrowly edged out Trump in the district, so the House Democrats had their eye on it before Youngblood’s legal issues. The DWI certainly helped Karen Bash run up a 16 point victory, but the Democrats might have pulled off the win regardless. It does, however, make it interesting that the GOP recruited Giovanni Coppola this cycle, given that he has a DWI arrest of his own.
Our comment: Okay, but that little swipe at Giovanni will upset the R's who think they have a winner with the 29 year old entrepreneur.
3) DISTRICT 28--Melanie Stansbury, a water and natural resources consultant, is facing Republican Thomas Stull in this NE Heights district. Stansbury defeated long-time GOP incumbent Jimmie Hall by more than 1,000 votes in 2018. Like other suburban Albuquerque districts, this is trending more blue. Although Republicans are making a strong play the partisan shift is working against them, as evidenced by the presidential polling numbers from the Journal.
Our comment: No question the R's need Trump to perform in these newly Dem House seats, a tall order given his bad numbers in the metro where he trailed Biden 61-33 in the Journal survey.
MORE HOT RACES
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| Hochman-Vigil |
Our comment: If the well-known Winter couldn't do it, can any R?
5) DISTRICT 29--In fast-growing northwest ABQ, another first-time incumbent, retired educator Joy Garratt, is facing challenger Adelious Stith. Stith’s campaign happens to be managed by the man Garratt ousted in 2018: David Adkins. The margin in that race was more than 8 points after Democrats lost it by only 9 votes in 2016.
6) DISTRICT 30--In one of the few rematches from 2018, Natalie Figueroa once again faces John Jones, who she defeated by a hefty 16 points in 2018. Few people expect Jones to close that 16 point gap this time, so Figueroa should be sleeping just fine.
7) DISTRICT 20--Dem Rep. Abbas Akhil, who defeated incumbent Jim Dines in '18 by only 115 votes to serve as the state's first Muslim-American legislator, opted against re-election. Meredith Dixon, a small business owner and fundraising consultant for Sen. Udall, is the Democratic candidate. She’s facing Michael Hendricks—the GOP nominee for Attorney-General in 2018. This SE Albuquerque/Four Hills district is another trending blue so Dixon has the edge and has plenty of cash in the bank.
Our comment: Hendricks is a strong offering. He was the only big name R to call for the resignation of then-GOP Rep. Monica Youngblood after her DWI arrest. He's conservative but showed he could cross party lines but Dixon's money advantage may be too much to overcome.
The Alligators are out in force for the final stretch of Campaign 2020. They won't miss a trick which means neither will you. And that’s how you become New Mexico’s top political news source.
ART DE LA CRUZ
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| De la Cruz |
(The BernCo Commission has) chosen (Democrat) Art de la Cruz to fill the vacant District 12 seat of the NM House. . .De la Cruz replaces (Dem) Rep. Patricio Ruiloba who resigned his seat in August. District 12 is located in the southwest quadrant of Bernalillo County. . .The commission approved the appointment of De la Cruz on a 3 to 2 vote. (Dem) Commissioners Debbie O’Malley and James Collie dissented.
But Art may never get to step into the Roundhouse as a lawmaker. He was appointed to serve the remainder of Ruiloba's term which runs until the end of the year.
It would take a thousand words to describe this convoluted mess. Suffice it to say that De la Cruz is running as a write-in candidate in the November election. Independent candidate Brittany Barreras is the only hopeful on the ballot. The Republicans ran no one. Can Art beat Brittany as a write-in? Maybe. Will ABQ South Valley politics continue to be batshit crazy? Definitely. How do we know? Because Ruiloba is now running for Bernalillo County Sheriff in 2022.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020