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Wednesday, September 16, 2020

Money Chase Highlights Key State Senate Contests In Final Stretch, Plus: Keller And Crime; Administration Pushes Back

It takes cash to campaign so what do some of those key state Senate races look like in the final stretch now that the money reports have been filed? The reports filed Monday covered June 30 thru Sept. 7 and show where the action is. . .

Among the hotly competitive contests is Dem Katy Duhigg challenging GOP freshman state Senator Candace Gould for a seat centered in the ABQ North Valley. Both contenders are ready for battle. Duhigg raised $85,000 in the period and reports $123,000 in cash. Her contributions included $5000 from the Duhigg law firm, $2500 from Emily's List and a number of big labor union contributions.

Gould raised less than Duhigg--$51,000--but her cash position is solid. She reports $131,000 on hand in this banner contest. Her contributors include $5000 from GOP state Senator Mark Moores and another $5000 from GOP Sen. Cliff Pirtle.

There's been scuttlebutt that the R's might have a chance to take District 30, the western NM Senate seat held by Dem Clemente Sanchez who was defeated in the Dem primary by Pam Cordova, but put that on your longshot list. Cordova, a fixture in Dem politics in Valencia County, raised $88,000 in the reporting period, compared to just $23,000 for R Joshua Sanchez. Cordova reports $75,000 in cash. Sanchez has $31,000. Insiders say conservative Clemente, none too happy about his primary defeat, is supporting the R.

Back in ABQ, Harold Pope Jr., vying to become the first African-American state senator, reports raising $51,000 and having $69,000 in cash. He's trying to unseat GOP Senator Sander Rue in the swing westside district. He reports raising just $19,500 but has a healthy cash position of $60,000. NM Democrats kicked in $5000 to Pope and Chevron was there for Rue with $5,000.

ABQ NE Heights Dem State Senator Daniel Ivey-Soto reports more cash than just about any Senator-- $99,000. Big contributors included the oil boys. Chevron gave $7,600 and Occidental Petroleum came with $4,000.

Ivey-Soto does not have a competitive race. His R foe raised only $15,000. But what he does have is a competitive contest to become the next Senate President Pro Tem. That power position is being vacated by Mary Kay Papen and Senate Dems will make their new choice after the election. Certainly the oil boys don't want the Senate to go too far to the left and Ivey-Soto won't take it there. His bulging campaign coffers could come in handy for contributions to fellow senators in tight races as he works to round up votes to advance to the highest rungs in the 42 member chamber.

Finally on the Senate money chase today, from the Journal's Dan Boyd:

Republican Crystal Diamond of Elephant Butte reported Monday having raised $111,810 during the recent reporting period, with contributions from Chevron and several incumbent GOP senators. Her opponent, Democrat Neomi Martinez-Parra of Lordsburg, who defeated Sen. John Arthur Smith in the primary, reported raising more than $95,000, with financial backing from several union groups and incumbent Democrats.

That one looks like a contest for the title of the Senator from Chevron or the Senator from AFSCME.

All the latest state campaign finance reports are here.

KELLER AND CRIME

Some pushback from the 11th floor of City Hall over criticism on the Monday blog of Mayor Keller and Chief Administrative Officer Sarita Nair from Tom Grover, a former cop turned attorney who defends many police officers. Grover argued that the troubled APD is due to "micromanaging" by the administration. Keller spokesman Matt Ross with the rebuttal:

One, how could the CAO have been "micro-managing" the Onate protest response when she was sitting in a Council meeting the whole time? The video is public here. It should also have been included in your story that the Council President (Pat Davis) who initiated those claims retracted and apologized in a public meeting.

You're giving space to a lawyer looking for a tax-funded payday, but somehow missed the poll out Sunday that shows Mayor Keller with a 60% approval. That didn't fit your narrative? This isn't an outlier, either: we've seen consistent approval numbers for the Mayor across all three years of his tenure. In crisis after crisis, the Mayor has been a leader people trust to steer the ship. The extremely low disapproval, at 22%, might be even more significant if you're trying to read the tea leaves for an incumbent mayor. Keller's leadership is resonating with real people who don't live and die in the bubble of political intrigue, and that's what matters most.

As for the ABQ Journal poll, we wrote our blog before that poll came out but it actually does "fit our narrative" about Keller which is that ultimately his fate will be decided on the crime issue and that the 60 percent approval hardly tells the full story. We go to pollster Brian Sanderoff for his analysis which dovetails with our own:

Sanderoff. . .said it appears that the public perception of Keller has improved during the COVID-19 pandemic. He said that may be partly because the virus has temporarily supplanted crime as voters’ top concern. . .Crime, which was a major issue well before Keller took office, remains a significant problem now. Although Albuquerque’s property crime dipped in 2019, the city recorded the highest number of homicides for any year in recent memory in 2019 and is on pace to break that record this year. The public’s focus may have shifted to COVID-19 for now, but Sanderoff said Keller’s legacy is still tied to the city’s response to crime. “Crime is still lurking as the biggest issue facing the city, and whether people ultimately will continue to approve of the mayor’s performance will ultimately be determined by how he’s perceive as handling crime,” said Sanderoff.

You can call that "political intrigue" or poltical reality. Take your pick.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020