The ABQ Journal poll released Sunday essentially puts the race out of reach of Republican President Donald Trump who won the backing of only 39 percent of likely voters compared to Dem challenger Joe Biden's 54 percent.
Making a Trump comeback even less likely, just 7 percent of those polled said they were undecided or that they would not be voting for either candidate.
Given the exceptionally low undecided less than two months from Election Day only an event of seismic proportion that shakes the entire nation would appear to be able to alter the inevitability of a Biden win here.
In the know R's are circling the wagons, acknowledging that with a Biden blue wave the state's five member congressional delegation will likely stay blue and that the party's best hope is to vigorously campaign to protect and add to their legislative numbers.
A Trump win is not in the cards but they see a shot at reducing his losing margin in which Trump breaks free from the Republican base vote of 42 percent. That could benefit their legislative candidates as well as southern congressional hopeful Yvette Herrell.
At NMGOP headquarters they tried to put a brave face on the dismal numbers. They questioned the survey's demographics, wondering about the number of Dems polled vs. R's, noting that the information was not released. They added:
Polls conducted in the summer often fail to be reflective of November elections. Campaigns don’t start until after Labor Day. There will be nationally televised presidential debates, and candidates will spend millions in media advertising. To conduct a poll during late summer may be useful, but in New Mexico there are more than 283,000 unaffiliated voters who were not involved in the Primary Election.
Still, this makes for some very wishful thinking. Trump lost to Hillary Clinton here in 2016 by 48 to 40 with Libertarian Gary Johnson garnering 9 percent. Pollster Brian Sanderoff sounded a four alarm fire for the White House, pointing out that Hispanic voters were supporting Biden 64 percent to Trump's 28 percent and that just about all the Hispanics who supported Johnson were now supporting Biden. That undercut a key argument of the Trump campaign on why the state could be brought into play. The President would need 40 percent Hispanic support to be anywhere near competitive.
There were tidbits of good news for Trump in the survey conducted August 26 to September 2 among 1,123 likely voters and that sports a margin error of 2.9 percent. In the Northwest region he manages a 55 to 43 margin over Biden and on the conservative eastside Trump won landslide numbers, 65 percent to 30 percent over Biden. And while Trump is behind here it is not a surprise and not a commentary on what the ultimate result of the national election will be.
But it was the ABQ Metro that delivered what could be the death knell, giving him just 33 percent support to Biden's landslide number of 61 percent. The Metro is the most populous region of the state and turnout could be off the charts this year.
In 2018--an off year election with lower turnout than a presidential year---a Dem Blue Wave washed over the usually moderate/conservative ABQ NE Heights. When it was done only one GOP state House member was left standing in Bernalillo County. R's challenging the Dem freshman winners from that year have to face the dilemma of watching many of their voters going for Biden and then trying to persuade them to vote Republican for the House seats.
Then there's the four metro area GOP state senate seats that could be crucial in determining how liberal state policy could be in the election's aftermath. The R's seeking those slots are in need of chicken soup and valium to help them recover from the body blow this poll represents.
One poll does not an election make but it often defines what is and what isn't possible. Could we see some Republicans separate themselves from Trump in hope of surviving? Well, a hungry man will do most anything to see the sun rise another day.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020