We'll skip the clichés about a Halloween scare and get right to the heart of the matter.

Our sources informed us last week that Trump was planning a New Mexico visit and that was confirmed Sunday when it was announced that the former president will conduct a noon rally in ABQ on Thursday. 

Now those senior sources are telling us the event will be held at the ABQ International Sunport and that Trump will be traveling to battleground Nevada following his stop here.

An airport play is quick and clean. Protesters will try to flood the zone but the Sunport location and ease for security there should lessen the impact, unlike the chaos that ensued when Trump stopped in downtown ABQ in 2016.

So why the visit? That question is on the lips of everyone in La Politica because polling shows VP Harris  and Senator Heinrich are safe for the Dems.

It's true that Trump's visit could boost GOP southern congressional GOP hopeful Yvette Herrell. She is four points behind Rep. Gabe Vasquez in the polling, so that's one part of the puzzle.

EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS

In an extended conversation with Greg Payne, a former ABQ state legislator, veteran campaign consultant and now Santa Fe attorney, we sliced and diced the visit that is raising Republican spirits and causing Dems to pull out their hair. We agreed there are several layers of the onion to peel to explain the visit.

Yes, Trump could give a boost to Herrell in ABQ's South Valley, but his target at this late stage in the campaign is also the nation. Payne explains:

Trump is hitting historic polling numbers among Hispanic voters, especially men. Just the word that he has stopped in "New Mexico" gets attention nationally. That helps him in the battlegrounds particularly Nevada and Arizona. This visit is not about Trump carrying the state against Harris but it is about virtue signaling to Hispanics everywhere that he wants their votes. It will also give him another opportunity to send out his national message on the border--while being near the border.

Trump is getting 41 percent Hispanic support in the ABQ Journal polling, a stunning number that in the modern era has not been achieved on Election Night by a GOP presidential candidate. (George W. Bush did 40 percent in 2004, according to the exits.)

Still, Dem consultants dumped on the Trump NM visit with one of them sarcastically saying:

Trump is extremely popular in New Mexico. Very worth the time and money. Great investment.

Payne and I agreed that the stop here plays into Trump's recent efforts to nationalize the election. He held a major event at Madison Square Garden in New York Sunday, a state he has little chance of carrying but the national buzz created was the reward. (Also, there are a couple of swing congressional seats near NYC.)

Another angle: Trump has never won the popular vote. Running up his totals in non-battleground states that he is destined to lose still helps the goal of winning a popular majority not just one in the Electoral College. The margin could be tiny if he pulls it off--even an extra 5,000 votes here in little 'ol New Mexico could matter.

Local Democrats continue to play with fire, saying that Trump's new Hispanic support here is an aberration. Maybe. But if it isn't and Hispanics are leaving the Dems it has the potential to alter the future political narrative--if the GOP can find leadership to take advantage.

You can't say Trump ignores New Mexico. Despite poor odds he will now have made campaign stops here each of three times he has sought the White House.

WALZING IN 

Hoskie and Walz

He walzed in and walzed out. So it went Saturday for Dem VP nominee Tim Walz as his plane touched down in Gallup and where a motorcade then drove his party to an event in Window Rock, in Arizona, a battleground state. 

The visit was brief and quiet. 

We were informed by a Dem consultant that state Senators Shannon Pinto, a Navajo, and George Munoz, who represents the Gallup area, were on hand to greet the Minnesota governor. State Dem Party Chair Jessica Velasquez was also there.

Brenda Hoskie, chairwoman of the McKinley county Dem party,  enjoyed a handshake and a hug with Walz. She said on her socials:

I welcomed  Governor Tim Walz (Coach). I told Coach “We are at two minutes warning and we need to get the Kamala Harris goal. We are here to help him and Vice President Harris win this election.

As far as we could tell, Walz made no formal statements to the small group of NM greeters.

Indian Country in NM is again poised to deliver big margins to the Dem presidential ticket. 

In Arizona, Biden carried the Rez vote heavy in 2020 and some see it as again critical to the Dem's success there.

PASSIONATE NELLA

It was a rowdy affair, the second and final TV debate between Dem US Senator Martin Heinrich and his Republican rival Nella Domenici. (Video here.)

The one hour face-off was broadcast live from ABQ's Congregation Albert, a Jewish institution of note, but three times the moderator had to deal with protesters loudly confronting Heinrich from the audience over the war in Gaza that has claimed so many lives. 

After security handled that, the candidates soldiered on and it was Nella getting rhetorically rowdy as she unloaded not only the kitchen sink on Heinrich but all the plumbing, too.

It was the least she could do if she is to command a better showing Election Night than she is in the latest polling that has her losing to the two term lawmaker by 11 points. 

Domenici again pointed out the myriad of problems afflicting New Mexico, saying Heinrich has failed to reverse our standing. 

Fair enough, but Nella retorted that what Heinrich is actually tired of is the "brutal truth" that has confronted the state.

Heinrich was most brutal, if you will, and unusually so for him, when he commented on Nella's endorsement of Trump, a decision she waffled on for months: 

If she cares so deeply about women—how can she vote for and support a presidential candidate who has been found liable for rape, who has been convicted 34 times of felonies, who has been accused of sexual assault over and over and over again, including this week when another person came forward. I don’t know how that’s caring deeply for women.  

Domenici put the senior senator on the spot by citing rumors that he will run for Governor in '26:

He bought a new house up here in New Mexico just in time for the five-year residency rule for running for governor.

He did not deny he was thinking about a Guv run, but said: 

I don't traffic in rumors, and I will always serve New Mexico however I think I can do the most good for New Mexico, and right now that is in the United States Senate.

Our latest in the know tracking of the Guv race is that Heinrich will not run for the '26 Dem nomination if Sec. of Interior Deb Haaland makes a bid. But if she does not, then the story line changes.

Heinrich gets credit for accepting a second TV debate. He had the most to lose and could have taken a pass. And he might have lost this one. 

But that is in the context of Domenici coming to life and tossing red meat out that could help her finally consolidate GOP votes and other conservatives that have stayed on the sidelines and kept her at an anemic 40 percent in the polling.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.