Pollster Sanderoff

Yvette Herrell desperately needs good news in the public polling. Her last shot at getting some could be this Sunday (Oct. 20) when the ABQ Journal comes with their second and final poll of Election '24

The paper took a pass on the southern congressional seat featuring Herrell and Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez in their September survey but longtime pollster Brian Sanderoff says that race, in which Herrell has lagged Vasquez by nine points in two separate polls conducted in late August and late September, has been included this time.

Sanderoff says the paper Sunday will also have a second round of polling on the presidential race here as well as the US Senate race. Both are seen as closed out by top operatives here and elsewhere with Trump on course to lose the state for the third time and Nella Domenici falling short of Dem Senator Heinrich as he seeks a third, six year term. 

Overall, polling is more difficult than ever with many voters reluctant to pick up their phones. 

Sanderoff, whose firm Research and Polling has surveyed every major statewide NM election since the late 1980's, details the most significant development for his firm and others during the Trump era: 

The biggest demographic shift in NM and nationally during the Trump era is educational attainment level. Trump is doing better than in the past among those without a college degree (especially those with a high school or less educational attainment) and Democrats are doing even better than in the past among those with a college degree, especially those with a graduate degree. Thus it is important not to undercount those with less education. 

By calling the non-respondents multiple times over multiple days you can mitigate but not eliminate nonresponse bias. In the 2020 Presidential election we were within one point of the margin of victory. In 2016 we were 3 points off the margin of victory.

The southern district has been notoriously tricky to poll because of its rural nature. But now half the votes in district come from Dona Ana and Bernalillo counties. 

The two public polls in the race had Vasquez winning by by 9. Any improvement by Herrell on that could boost the Republican effort to reset the race in the final days.

HERRELL'S PAST

Herrell

Staying with the 2nd Congressional District, readers point out that we've covered the Republican scolding of Vasquez for his verbal mishaps, committed while a student at NMSU some 20 years ago. They say if his past errors are going to be covered then an incident in the 2018 campaign in which Herrell was the GOP nominee also deserves coverage. 

That controversy was covered here and elsewhere back then, but alright. In the spirit of fairness here it is again from an '18 news report:

A Republican New Mexico state lawmaker and congressional candidate has amended a financial disclosure filing to show that her company received money from contracts with state agencies, in a move ensuring compliance with state regulations.

State Rep. Yvette Herrell of Alamogordo previously disclosed that she is a partner in Herrell Properties. She submitted an amended filing to show the company earned more than $5,000 from goods or services provided to state agencies.

Other state records have indicated that Herrell Properties took in $440,000 since 2013 by renting property to the New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department and New Mexico Environment Department.

The Secretary of State’s Office spokesman  said the amended filing brought Herrell into compliance with the requirement to “disclose the name of any state agency to which the legislator sold goods or services in excess of $5,000.”

Herrell survived that flare up and even now as she gasps for oxygen in a gerrymandered district, she can't be counted out.

Her vote to not certify Biden as president in 2021 and her rigid pro-life position, combined with the gerrymander of the district, puts her in grave danger. But her most valuable attributes are a no-nonsense, tough-as-nails personality, a never-back-down mentality and a consistency that has appealed to voters for years and made them cross over from their own party to elect her. 

NO MAS

On Friday FEC filings showed Domenici loaned herself another $750,000 for the final days of the campaign, bringing her loan total to $2.25 million.

The Heinrich camp, keeping an eye out for a last minute minute money rush, notes that Domenici raised $1.15 million in the final quarter before Election Day but she did not make any personal loans to her campaign. 

She had previously given a total of $1.5 million of personal money. 

Heinrich reports raising $2.3 million in the quarter, out raising her 2 to 1. 

In May we broke the news that Domenici's net worth, according to documents filed with the Senate, was  upwards of $94 million or $21 million on the low end. Dems howled at the time that they wanted "an election not an auction."

They pretty much got what they wanted since $1.5 million is a relatively modest amount for a major campaign. And Nella's hesitancy to throw more of her fortune at a race that may be out of reach earns her points for her assertion that she is a true fiscal conservative. (But there's still three weeks to go so stay tuned.)

In her latest TV ad Domenici continues calling Heinrich a "radical" but this time there's a twist. She says his economic policies are radical. That may be a better angle to get voter attention than her past efforts. The economy tops the list of concerns this year and relating Heinrich's alleged "radicalism" to voter's pocketbooks could win her a listen. 

DEBATE REACTION

Readers commented on the first Heinrich-Domenici TV debate conducted Monday afternoon. Jay Howard Deme wrote:

A real ho-hum affair between incumbent Martin Heinrich and challenger Nella Domenici. Sleepers for sure. Where are the real firebrand candidates for this top office to represent New Mexicans in Washington, D.C. at the U-S Senate! The two major party's, Democrat and Republican , better wake up. 

Khal Spencer wrote on social media:

Reader Kelley says:

Joe, concerning Nella Domenici's outrage at being perceived as following orders of a Republican Senate Majority Leader. Of course she will--whatever Donald Trump and the party desire. They’re in lockstep, no independence. 

 It’s not sexist, as she claims, it’s true. Domenici may have been successful in business, but she’s not ready for high office. I like how Heinrich has ascended and earned his way to become a US Senator by way of ABQ city councilor. US Rep., then Senator--and it shows. 

Lastly, Nella saying everyone in the ABQ "war zone" is stoned is an insult to an entire block of our city. My aunt lives between Lomas and Central off Wyoming. I can assure Nella, she’s not stoned. The community needs help and solutions, not snobby, judgement. Have a good day, Joe. 

That's it for now. Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan and. . .

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