If turnout is similar to that of 2020 then nearly half the votes that will be cast in Election '24 are in the bank. 

The SOS reports that through Monday 444,521 New Mexicans have made their voices heard by voting absentee or at early voting locations. 

If the vote total for this year's presidential race matches the roughly 924,000 who turned out for the 2020 contest then 48 percent of the total vote is already in. 

Early voting continues to grow in popularity although it is not expected to match the early turnout of 2020 which was inflated by the Covid outbreak. 

Still, most votes will be cast before the actual election day of November 5 signifying voter comfort with the option as well as the efficiency implementing it by Secretary of State Toulouse Oliver and Bernalillo County Clerk Linda Stover and her colleagues across the state.   

The partisan lean in the early ballots is 48 percent Democratic, 37 Republican and 15 percent independents and others. That's in line with recent patterns and signals that races where large polling leads are evident are not going to turn into upsets.

Those include the presidential contest going to VP Harris, Sen. Heinrich winning re-election as well as US Reps. Stansbury and Leger Fernandez.

The race between Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez and Republican Yvette Herrell remains a lean Democratic contest but still with the possibility of an upset. Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta explains:

Joe, Herrell's last stand is precincts in the South Valley of ABQ and westside. She needs to get close to Gabe there--tie him or come within a couple of points--or else the race is his. We will be able to tell from the early vote results in Bernalillo county whether this race takes us through the night or is put to bed early.

Those Dem-leaning BernCo precincts make up about 25 percent of the total vote in the 2nd District. Another 25 percent come from Dem dominated Dona Ana county where Vasquez served as a Las Cruces city councilor. 

TRUMP HERE TOMORROW

Maybe the Halloween Trump visit will help Herrell pop the turnout in BernCo? But disparaging comments made about Puerto Rico and Hispanics by a comedian at Trump's Sunday Madison Square Garden rally raised questions about his Hispanic support going forward.

Trump will rally the faithful at a noon rally tomorrow. ABQ airport officials say

The Albuquerque International Sunport received confirmation from the Republican Party of New Mexico that former President Trump will be holding a rally at CSI Aviation, a Fixed Based Operator (FBO) located south of the main terminal. Please note: The event will not be held at the Sunport’s main terminal. The Sunport anticipates no impacts to commercial flight operations for this event. . . The Isleta Amphitheatre, located at 5601 University Blvd SE, will be providing shuttles from their parking lot to CSI Aviation. 

CSI is owned by former NM GOP Chairman Allen Weh, a major GOP donor, and a longtime contractor for the federal government. 

DEM TRUMP REACT

State Dems are letting loose with the vitriol over the Trump visit to Blue New Mexico. MLG fires this volley:

I'm disappointed that Donald Trump is bringing his cruel, racist schtick to New Mexico — home to the nation's largest percentage of Hispanic residents — just days after his buddy called our Puerto Rican brothers and sisters 'garbage' at a campaign rally in New York. . .

Trump has said he did not know the comedian who made the remarks about Puerto Rico. (MLG stands to get a new job if VP Harris is elected.)

State Dems brought GOP US Senate candidate Nella Domenici into the fray:

After months of dodging questions, Nella Domenici has finally made her alliance clear: she will stand beside former President and convicted felon Donald Trump at his rally in Albuquerque this Thursday. Nella’s journey from self-proclaimed “moderate” and “independent thinker” to MAGA devotee has been swift and decisive. For a candidate who once publicly insisted she would not endorse Trump or seek his approval, her sharp right turn raises important questions about where she truly stands. 

Do you get the sense that the Dems are trying to run up the score against Nella? They already have her on the canvas, but with Heinrich still eyeing a possible '26 Guv run the plan appears to be to try to beat her by 10 points or more. 

Heinrich's high mark in a Senate election is 54 percent. The base GOP vote is 45 percent but Domenici just recently moved to 40 percent in the latest polling.

CONVENTION CENTER, REALLY?

2016 ABQ Trump Rally (NYT)

What can we add to the dispute over whether the Trump campaign was seriously interested in renting the ABQ Convention Center for their rally tomorrow but the city said it wasn't available because of a water line repair in progress?

Well, after a near riot at the 2016 Trump ABQ Convention Center rally (which yours truly walked home from through smoke-filled air) was this really a serious inquiry? A security nightmare again? 

And, considering Trump is on a tight schedule to get to Nevada following his ABQ stop were they really thinking about hauling him downtown and back?  Or were they routinely checking a variety of possible rally locations as they do as a matter of course?

Anyway, GOP Councilor Dan Lewis can call off the dogs he sicced on Dem Mayor Keller over the bizarre flap and the Mayor can give up on trying to collect money he says the city is owed by the Trump campaign for a past visit. They've said enough.

By the way, we reported a number of months ago that Lewis had told us he will not seek the mayor's office next year when Keller seeks a third term. Lewis lost to Keller in the '17 mayoral contest.

SAME DAY VOTING

A new twist in state elections is the ability to register to vote and cast your ballot on the same day. Common Cause reports it's an option that is being taken advantage of:

You can now register and vote on the same day during the early voting period or on election day. Previously, voter registration ended weeks before the election and if you weren’t registered you were out of luck. In the current election, 9,280 New Mexicans have utilized this option as of Monday Oct. 28

TWO DOCS

There are two medical doctors in the state legislature--not only one as we first blogged Tuesday. Republican Senator Greg Shcmedes, a doctor, is still in the Senate although he is not seeking re-election to his East Mountain ABQ area seat and will depart in January. If ABQ Dem Senator Martin Hickey, the focus of our Tuesday report, is re-elected he will be the sole MD in the Legislature. Still no doctor in the House, though.

Be sure to join us for our traditional Election Night coverage on public radio KANW 89.1 FM  and kanw.com starting at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday and for our pre-game show Monday, November 4 at 5 p.m. 

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.