We compiled our list from the consultants, sources on the ground and our reliable Alligators---our longtime blog sources. Here we go.
House District 38---We're back in central New Mexico including Socorro with Republican Rebecca Dow and Democrat Rep. Tara Jaramillo. We're told this one remains as tight as the lug nuts on a 56' Chevy.
Joe, As you framed it is very close and getting nasty. Both candidates accuse each other of having their businesses wrongfully benefit from state contracts, although neither appears to be out of line. Much of this is Dow's old district from when she served in the legislature. Jaramillo has voted moderate to try to hold on to the new and still conservative district. It's tight. A Dow win would be a pickup for the GOP and she would be a player for leadership if she gets the win.
House District 68- on ABQ's Westside. Dem Rep. Charlotte Little vs. Republican Nathan Brooks. The Alligator take:
Republicans are crying in their beer over this one. Little only won in '22 by 35 votes but the race has now broken her way since it was revealed that Brooks beat up his then wife in 2005 outside a Las Vegas Nevada liquor store and also has some DWI's. He says he's a reformed alcoholic but you can almost hear his support collapsing. The GOP kicks themselves over losing a golden opportunity and Little dodges a bullet.
House District 31--in the far ABQ NE Heights. We covered this yesterday and a little more today. The latest from a consultant:
Nothing appears to have changed. It's a toss up with maybe a slight lean to the Republican but the district is starting to look a bit more Democratic. Republican Nicole Chavez has been trailed by controversy but the GOP is determined to keep their only ABQ House seat. Democrat Vicky Estrada-Bustillo is determined to take it from them. Bottom line? Too wild to call.
House District 52 in the Las Cruces and Otero county area. Our take:
Silva & Winterrowd
This one features Dem community activist Sarah Silva and Republican Elizabeth Winterrowd who almost won the seat last time. Silva replaced Jon Hill, the winner of the Dem primary but who passed away.
Dems have come with enough money for Silva who joined the race late, but she is very liberal and the seat was held by conservative Dem Willie Madrid. Look for a close one here.
House District 36--This is a Las Cruces seat held by Dem. Rep. Nathan Small, chair of the House Appropriations Committee, who is being challenged by Republican Kimberly Skaggs. The consultant take:
Joe, is this race being painted as close and Nathan is raising a bunch of money because of it? The district performance is 54 percent but he did have a close one against Skaggs last time, 52 to 48. The polling has indicated Skaggs is again making noise. We would call this one likely Democratic with an outside chance for an upset. Still Dems are watching it closely for any late GOP surge.
House District 39 based in Grant County in the SW--This is the kind of race that political oldtimer and lobbyist Scott Scanland would call an "upset special." Our take:
GOP state Rep. Luis Terrazas is well-liked in the district. The problem? Democratic performance is 56 percent and newcomer Gabby Begay, 35, is coming on strong. Begay is making Terrazas' support of public school vouchers a key issue. He's going tough on crime, calling for an end to "catch and release. He owns a funeral home and understands all kinds of death--including the political kind which he is working hard to avoid.
There's several more hot ones out there in the state House and Senate and we'll pick up our coverage of them next week. All 70 House seats are up for election this year along with the 42 state Senate seats.
THE 31 BATTLE
Here's a bit of equal time for House 31 Republican hopeful Estrada-Bustillo after we posted a mailer from Republican Nicole Chavez which said she is being unfairly attacked by her opponent for wanting to "ban abortion:
It's a whopper for Republican Nicole Chavez to say she "does not support banning abortion," when her positions to restrict abortion access are well documented—from two years ago, as you pointed out--but also from questionnaires she filled out this election. We're making sure voters know that not only is she opposed to abortion, she's the NM leader of an extremist anti-abortion group anti-abortion group. I guess she figures that since she's already lied about her education credentials and where she lives so what’s one more lie?
Whatever you do, dear District 31 voters, don't get between these two.
YVETTE'S VIRTUES
Reader Michael Hays writes:
Joe, Yvette's virtues, as you summarize them, alienate me. You write, "her most valuable attributes are a no-nonsense, tough-as-nails personality, a never-back-down mentality and a consistency that has appealed to voters for years." I have never regarded "tough-as-nails personality, a never-back-down mentality," and "consistency" as virtues. I think that any representative should have an open mind to new ideas and enough humility to admit mistakes. I also think that "consistency" is an overrated virtue by comparison to reasoned flexibility of thought; good reasons to change one's mind should change it, and they should be used to explain what "gotcha" journalists and political opponents want to charge to flip-flopping.
Interesting take. But we see Herrell's strong personality standing out in the context of our current congressional delegation. As for her "never back down mentality" we see that as a campaign virtue not as a governing one. HARVEST TIME
This photo we've run for a number of years brought a phone call the other day from a former Democratic state representative:
Joe, this is Dan Silva. That photo on the blog is of chile I harvested at my place in the South Valley and stored in my garage. At this time, I am heavy into the green chile. You have to balance things out, you know.
Silva, 80, served in the state House for nearly 25 years, from 1984 to 2008 and was chairman of the House Transportation Committee. He later became a lobbyist, a job he is now "winding down. His son, Dominic Silva, is a longtime Roundhouse lobbyist.
Silva had a productive career in Santa Fe but by the looks of that chile he had to set aside his true calling to serve in La Politica. Enjoy the harvest, Dan.
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