That's according to chatter circulating in law enforcement circles who are among the first to know of any presidential candidate visit since security is paramount.
New Mexico long ago shed its role as a swing state by voting Democratic in every presidential election since 2008 but that hasn't stopped Trump from visiting here during his 2016 and 2020 campaigns. A visit this time would not be unusual.
The presidency hangs on the seven battleground states but Trump has been straying from them to make a national splash, making a stop in California and soon at New York City's Madison Square Garden.
The most recent polling has Trump getting 41 percent of the state's Hispanic voters. That would be a modern record for a GOP presidential contender if it should translate to Election Day.
In 2004, exit polls showed George W. Bush garnered 40 percent of the Hispanic vote here.
A NM stop courting the Hispanic vote could translate into positive coverage for Trump across the nation.
Sources say that an advance team has scoped out a possible Trump visit. There are no other details such as when and where he would speak, if a visit materializes.
POSSIBLE IMPACT
The only race that the former president might directly impact here with a personal visit would be the southern congressional district where former GOP US Rep. Yvette Herrell, a longtime Trump supporter who voted against certifying Joe Biden's 2020 presidential win, is running 4 points behind (49-45) Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez in the late polling.
Herrell had House Speaker Mike Johnson campaign for her in Las Cruces in August. Wednesday the speaker will be back to share the stage with Herrell at a Carlsbad rally in SE NM. The Vasquez campaign reaction:
He’s here in NM-02 to spread his MAGA extremist agenda and back Yvette Herrell’s anti-choice, anti-democracy, anti-New Mexico campaign.
If Trump does touch down in New Mexico he is sure to be greeted by protestors as well as well-wishers. Polling has Harris leading him here 50-41 with 3 percent for RFK Jr. who has withdrawn from the race but whose name remains on the state ballot.
Of course, in Trump world the point of the visit could just be to further Democratic panic over the state of the race by spending time away from the battlegrounds
ABORTION FOCUS IN 31
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The race for the sole remaining GOP state House seat in Albuquerque is getting hotter than a Tucumcari parking lot in July.
Republican Nicole Chavez, busted for misstating her educational credentials on the ABQ Journal questionnaire, is fighting back against Democrat Vicky Estrada-Bustillo who is attacking her on all fronts including the hot-button abortion issue.
In this mailer going out in District 31 in ABQ's far NE Heights, Chavez blasts Estrada-Bustillo for a mailer her opponent sent out attacking Chavez for supporting an abortion ban. The Chavez mailer says:
The Truth: Nicole Chavez does not support banning abortion.
Chavez does not mention abortion on her web site and the Journal questionnaire for the general election did not ask her position.
On the 2022 general election questionnaire--when she ran for House District 28--Chavez said this:
Q: Given the U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, do you support or oppose codifying abortion protections in state law? And do you support or oppose enacting any restrictions on abortion in New Mexico?
A: Abortion is already legal in New Mexico up to the moment of birth. I support prohibiting late-term abortions, which the vast majority of New Mexicans agree on this point. I also believe there should be exceptions for instances of rape, incest and the health/safety of the mother.
Estrada-Bustillo on her web site says she will support:
Protecting reproductive rights and abortion access.
The retired forest service ranger is moving to the right as she tries to nail down votes in the moderate district.
On crime, she calls for:
Tougher sentences for violent criminals and repeat offenders; Keep dangerous repeat offenders in jail before trial; Increase penalties for the first time drunk driving offense.
Republicans are shrugging off Chavez's questionnaire fiasco over her education, just as they do with charges against Trump, and betting that she can get by Estrada-Bustillo by calming fears that she is an anti-abortion zealot.
The race looks like it could be a real squeaker with the district now 39 percent Republican, 36 percent Democratic and 24 percent independent.
GOP state Rep. Bill Rehm is retiring, leaving a vacancy and Chavez and Estrada-Bustillo are locked in a heated battle to replace him. It is a must-win for the GOP to avoid a humiliating House shut-out of the minority party in the state's largest county.
GOOD AND BAD
The Journal survey from Oct 10-18--has the Senate race 51-40 for Heinrich, outside the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percent.
The Senate race went bust in the Journal's first poll in late September that showed Heinrich ahead 50-38.
A committee chairmanship is a prize a senator covets after two terms but if Heinrich does win re-election and the GOP takes senate control, he'll have to wait for a Dem majority to get that reward. Meanwhile, he does sit on the powerful Appropriations Committee which isn't too shabby.
This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.
