Trump Takes The Nation And Flexes A Muscle In New Mexico; Turns In Best GOP Prez Performance Here In 20 Years; Hispanic Voters Key To Surge; Heinrich Wins Easily; Vasquez Eludes Herrell

NYT photo

He didn't carry the state but by turning in the best New Mexico performance by a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years Donald Trump gave his party here the pen and paper to start writing a new narrative to get itself out of the basement. Whether they seize the opportunity is up in the air.

Trump was losing the state to VP Harris early Wednesday 51.56 percent to 46.01 percent. (All election results here.)

That losing margin of 5.5 percent is the best GOP presidential showing since George W. Bush carried the state by a fraction of a percent over Democrat John Kerry in 2004. Trump appeared especially empowered by Hispanics and independents.

While the GOP was taking note of Trump's unexpected strength, the progressive wing of the Democratic party received a wake up call with the message that they are overdue for some navel gazing over how they have been handling economic and crime issues.

For MLG Election Night was a career ender. There will be no big job in DC with a President Harris but another two years of mud wrestling with the legislature. Her private sector prospects seem much brighter.

The disastrous national results for the Dems in which Trump was prevailing in both the popular vote and the Electoral College was made possible by attracting voters of color to his coalition. 

In New Mexico it appeared it was Hispanic Democratic men leading the march away from their party, joined by a multitude of independents, many of them angry and dissatisfied with their economic circumstances and runaway crime while Democratic party elites take little notice of them.

Veteran political analyst, attorney and former legislator Greg Payne messaged us Election Day, predicting that Trump would win with 312 electoral votes. That number looks close to being correct. 

Earlier he had warned Democrats that Trump's Halloween visit to New Mexico was a direct play to inflate his numbers with Hispanics here and elsewhere. It worked. 

So now what? Payne says:

Trump has shown Republicans how to get back in the game. There was so much fluidity and cross over voting with this electorate, with gender and ethnicity breaking usual patterns. The party now needs a new face for the Governor in '26. That means no Susana Martinez or Nella Domenici or the forces associated with them, but someone from the outside, someone new and exciting who can cobble together the coalition that Trump did and build on it. 

THIRD FOR HEINRICH

Heinrich (Journal)

While Democrats ached over the Trump national win and his overachieving here, Dem Sen. Martin Heinrich had a good night, handily defeating Republican Nella Domenici and winning a third term in the US Senate. 

That term, however, won't be as much fun as his party last night lost the Senate majority to the GOP. That might have Heinrich increasing his interest of running for Governor in '26.

Heinrich ran three points ahead of Harris, an unusual occurrence and another measure of Trump's prowess. Heinrich ran up the score against Domenici, 55 to 45 percent. 

Domenici had refused to embrace Trump until the very end of her campaign. It turned out to be the wrong move. 

US HOUSE 

Rep. Gabe Vasquez had to wait until late on Election Night for final returns from Dona Ana and Bernalillo counties to secure a second term in the US House as he defeated Republican Yvette Herrell 52 to 48, her second loss in a row to him.

Republican analysts on our KANW radio panel said she will not be their party's candidate again. 

Vasquez may stay in the minority in the House as it appeared the GOP chances of holding on to their majority were improving.

US Reps Melanie Stansbury and Teresa Leger Fernandez led the Democratic ticket in percentage terms, each getting 56 percent against their opponents in their safe districts. 

LEGISLATIVE ACTION

Republicans picked up one seat in the state House but the Dems will still have a large majority of 44 to 26. There was a gain of one GOP seat in the Senate. The party split will be 26 Democrats and 16 Republicans. 

(We've updated these numbers from earlier reports that were based on incomplete returns.)

Rebecca Dow defeated incumbent Dem Tara Jaramillo in a T or C area race and was already being mentioned as possibly the next House Minority Leader as Rep. Rod Montoya plans to bow out. 

Republican Nicole Chavez won the only ABQ state House seat held by the GOP, pushing away a stiff challenge from the Dems. 

Democrat Michelle Sandoval lost her second attempt to take a House seat in Rio Rancho District 57 that GOP Rep. Jason Harper is leaving. She trailed Republican Catherine Cullen by over 300 votes in the wee hours. 

Senator Martin Hickey, in a closely watched race in ABQ's NE Heights, defeated Republican Wayne Yevoli.

Turnout for the '24 general election was in line with past presidential years with about 67 percent of registered voters or some 920,000 casting ballots when everything is tallied.  

Thanks to all of our guest experts on KANW Election Night and to all who tuned in.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.