New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

Latest Cash Reports Pinpoint Front Runners In Key Races, Plus: Another Senate Poll The R's Don't Like But The Dems Do, And: Thank You, Raul Burciaga

2012-02-01T00:58:00.021-07:00

The federal candidate cash reports have poured in for the final quarter of last year and here's where it takes the Alligator consensus:

---Eric Griego and Marty Chavez are neck and neck for the ABQ Dem US House nomination with Michelle Lujan Grisham having the money now to join them and Dan Lewis assumes the front-runner role for the Republican nod.

---Martin Heinrich is the hands-down front-runner for the Dem US Senate nomination and the same holds true for Republican Heather Wilson.

---The open US Senate seat is ranked "lean Dem" for the November election and the ABQ congressional seat is "likely Dem."

Neither Griego or Chavez blew the fund-raising doors off their hinges. Griego, an ABQ state senator, reported raising $143,000 for the quarter and ending it with $208,000 in cash in the bank. Former ABQ Mayor Chavez reports raising $149,000 (including a $15,000 loan) and having $217,000 in cash. Numbers for Michelle Lujan Grisham came out Wednesday morning and surprised:

Reporting...$278,173.62 money in the bank Lujan Grisham has established herself as a significant force in the upcoming primary election. Lujan Grisham’s campaign is reporting $161,529.98 raised (including a $20,000 loan) for the last quarter of 2011. Lujan Grisham has $69,696.15 more than State Senator Eric Griego, and $60,548.73 more than former Albuquerque mayor Marty Chavez.

Lujan Grisham has received some early backing from Emily's List--the powerful pro-choice women's group--and that appeared to help her fund-raising. Also, she has spent hardly any money and now has to get moving on putting her campaign together. Michelle opted to save her money while Eric and Marty were putting together their political operation.

Griego and Chavez are inching closer to a one-on-one duel, but much of it may play out in the mailboxes, not as much on the TV screens as inthe past. $200k with five months to go is not much and that means grassroots activism will be more important than usual. Lujan Grisham remains the wild card, not getting the early start with endorsements and organizations these two have, but competing on the cash count. And there are still a couple of months to raise the TV money.

The two longtime political foes--Chavez and Griego--are sure to come after each other with all they have, especially in light of the money reports that show they are heavily outraising their Republican foes. ABQ City Councilor Lewis reported raising $64,000 and had $102,000 in cash in the bank, retired Army Seargent Gary Smith $88,000 and former ABQ State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones only $20,000.

It will get easier for Lewis to raise money now that Jon Barela has decided not to run, but not by much. R's don't seem animated by this contest. The Dems are collecting much more cash than the R's, an early signal that the district is tilting toward them and exciting the Dem contenders.

On the Senate side, Hector Balderas reports raising $108,000 in the fourth quarter, compared to $483,000 for Martin Heinrich, Hector has $434,000 in cash in the bank and Heinrich has about $1.4 million. The numbers speak for themselves.

In the GOP contest, Lt. Governor John Sanchez did not release his numbers, meaning there will be no positive surprise and leaving Heather Wilson the undisputed front runner for the nomination. She reports $1.1 million in the bank. The third hopeful, Greg Sowards, is largely self-financing and does not pose the threat to Wilson that Sanchez could.

POLL WATCH

Another poll out on the race for New Mexico's open US Senate seat confirms our ranking of it as "lean Dem." Republican Heather Wilson continues to trail Dem Martin Heinrich in a hypothetical fall match-up. However, this survey shows the two nearly tied, with Heinrich leading 45% to 44%. MOE is 4 percent. A poll from the Dem firm PPP conducted in December had Wilson losing by 7 points.

The problem is that Wilson has superior statewide name ID to Heinrich, having served 10 years in congress to his three. Also, she ran for the GOP nod for Senate in 2008. That Wilson is not ahead and Heinrich lagging is the real news here, although R's have got to be breathing a sigh of relief that they can still argue the race remains in play and winnable.

R's panned the PPP poll, arguing its sample was flawed. Now they are blasting this one for being done only among "registered" voters, not "likely" voters. They say a poll of likely voters would be more favorable to Heather. They have a point, but when are they going to get a poll they like? That means one that shows the quasi-incumbent Wilson ahead.

It's a good question. Wilson's unfavorable ratings after years in politics and many negative campaigns are higher than Heinrich's. Veteran observers say it is holding her back and preventing her from moving toward the 50% threshold. Again, with her high name ID, this is not good. Voters know Heather. That means she will have to win the race by going negative on Heinrich and his short record in public service makes that tricky.

Other observers we respect don't necessarily see it our way and say that Wilson can reinvent herself. That's what makes for a good debate, but we see the R's spinning overtime trying to keep this race in play. Wilson has shown she is qualified to hold a US Senate seat, but she is going to have to show us better numbers to make us a believer that her past baggage is not bogging her down.

This survey was a team effort between a GOP and Dem firm. The R company is Public Opinion Strategies (POS) where Nicole McCleskey, wife of Governor Martinez's chief political advisor Jay McCleskey is employed. The Dem firm is Fairbank, Maslin etc. The poll was conducted in early January for the Colorado College State of the Rockies Project and is posted here.

By the way, in that poll the job performance of Gov. Martinez is "strongly approved" by 34% and 27% "somewhat approve." A December PPP poll had her favorable rating at 50%. This poll would have the overall favorable at 61%, but we don't like the phrasing, "somewhat approve." It seems misleading. Why not ask if is she doing an excellent, good, fair or poor job? Or ask straight up whether voters approve or disapprove of her performance? That's what PPP did. We'd say Susana--as of early January---had an overall approval rating of over 50%. That's good for a GOP Governor in a Dem state. Until we see a clear cut polling question that takes her higher, we'll stop at that number.

RAUL IS RIGHT

Raul Burciaga, you are right. But your are going to take heat for your level-headed decision denying a request from Governor Martinez and not permitting photos of foster kids up for adoption to be posted on the walls of the Roundhouse. A newspaper editorial decried the decision, calling it heartless. But it isn't.

As director of the Legislative Council Service, Mr. Burciaga presides over a spectacular building that has a special place in the hearts of New Mexicans. The one-of-a-kind and awe inspiring art collection on permanent display is a testament to the hard work and loving care that has gone into making a visit to the capitol by resident and tourist alike an unforgettable adventure.

The last thing we need is the bevy of interest groups that parade to the capitol arguing that their cause deserves to be highlighted upon its walls--no matter how controversial or off-putting Everyone has a soft spot for kids and it's unfortunate that the Governor has gone down this road, but Burciaga's job is to look at the big picture and that he does. He says:

The issue is simply that we have always done our best to keep any kind of cause, if you will, from being featured at the Capitol. As soon as we do that, then we start getting things that are little more questionable.

And that's putting it politely. In today's toxic political environment who knows what requests Burciaga would be fielding once he broke with the valuable tradition of not allowing any postings other than the timeless and apolitical art that celebrates our state.

Since 1966, the capitol has been a repository of New Mexico culture and art. There is plenty of partisan politics in the House and Senate chambers and committee rooms--more than enough. Do we really want that spilling out into the hallways? That's where we're likely headed if the no posting decision is reversed.

Burciaga made a tough call, but that's what he is there for--to protect the politicians from themselves. Thanks, Raul.

THE BOTTOM LINES

It's newsman Milan Simonich, not the other first name we gave him in a blog first draft Tuesday, He toils for Texas-New Mexico newspapers of which there are eight....And candidates for statewide judicial offices file their petition signatures on Feb. 14, not the date or dates we have been using.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012

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The First Gent's Job: Pushing Literacy; Plus: Is Susana Through in Senate? She Feels It's Stiff-Arm, Plus: A Bow Tie Wearing Budget Watcher

2012-01-31T00:58:00.016-07:00

He likes to hunt and enjoys a good baloney sandwich but other than that we haven't heard much from First Gentleman Chuck Franco during his wife's first year in office. But word is getting out on Franco's push to improve the state's literacy:

With about 46 percent of New Mexico's native English speakers reading at a sixth-grade level or below, the New Mexico Coalition for Literacy is pushing the Legislature for more funding. And helping drive their efforts is first gentleman Chuck Franco. The husband of Gov. Susana Martinez spoke at a news conference earlier this week about his support for expanding such services and the goal of eradicating illiteracy in New Mexico. "My interest in adult literacy came to me when I was in law enforcement."

Franco said that when he started working with troubled youth, he realized that their issues ran beyond behavioral problems. Having parents at home who couldn't read was one of them.

Good work, First Gent. And along those lines, we'd like to lobby you a bit.

There's a constitutional amendment making the rounds in Santa Fe that would allow us to use funds from the state's $10 billion Permanent Fund for very early childhood (birth to five years) education and development programs. Don't you think if we got to them at that age that we could break the cycle of illiteracy that afflicts so many of the state's children and that is of such concern to your good offices? Not that we are among those who go ballistic over the proposal from your better half to hold back third graders who can't read well. It's just that evidence is mounting that it may be too late to change patterns by then.

Just some thoughts, Chuck, and we're always available to discuss them further over a good baloney sandwich. We'll bring the mustard.

NORTHERN ACTION
Byrd & family
We get this from the newest candidate in the race for the GOP nomination for the northern congressional seat held by Dem Ben Ray Lujan:

Quay County rancher and engineer Jefferson L. Byrd announced his candidacy for New Mexico’s 3rd Congressional District today after months of traveling the district and visiting with grassroots conservatives.

“...I believe that my strong conservative background is best to take on Ben Ray Lujan’s socialist policies...In order to effectively compete for this seat, we need a true conservative who is from the district and has actually lived through the tough times that the Obama/Lujan agenda has created.”

That reference to a conservative "who is from the district" is an indirect jab at businessman Rick Newton, the other GOP candidate in the northern race. Newton lived in ABQ, but now lives in Taos. Byrd was born in Springer, NM.

On the Dem side, Lujan is seeking re-election and is a heavy favorite but he is being challenged for the nomination by former Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya. Speaking of which....

WELCOME HARRY

Here they come, Harry. Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya's challenge to northern NM Dem Congressman Ben Ray Lujan for the Dem nomination brings this Alligator attack:

...It was interesting that a key aspect of Harry Montoya’s announcement was taking on corruption when he’s had his fair share of ethical issues. The New Mexican pointed out part of it, reporting on the fact that his non-profit got county money while Montoya was a county commissioner and his brother-in-law had a contract with the county to lobby the legislature. That’s just the beginning.

The former board president of Montoya’s non-profit quit her job after nine years because of Montoya’s behavior that included hiring his relatives and wasting money. Montoya talks about taking on the Lujan political machine when he had a machine of his own that put his relatives to work...I guess with Harry it’s do as I say not as I do...

Montoya is no stranger to hardball politics. He was in the rough and tumble for the 2008 Dem congressional nomination and lost to Lujan.

CASH COUNT

In the ABQ US House race for the GOP nomination, retired Army Sergeant Gary Smith reports $88,000 in cash on hand at the end of December. He reports raising over $125,000, most of which he loaned himself. The federal candidate money reports for the fourth quarter of 2011 are being filed this week.

SOWARDS ON HEATHER

While observers wait for GOP US Senate candidate John Sanchez to do something--do anything--when it comes to taking on front runner Heather Wilson, the their candidate in the race--Greg Sowards of Las Cruces--isn't waiting:

I am the only candidate in New Mexico with a clear solution to combat Obama's Liberal Agenda and restore the promise of prosperity to New Mexico and America. In stark contrast to my Moderate rival in the New Mexico Republican primary, I stand for strong conservative values. With your help, together we can stop the era of bailout-minded career politicians and eco-extremism.

Wilson's perception as a "moderate" contender in a GOP primary that will attract legions of conservative voters remains her main weakness, but only if her foes are effective in exploiting it.

DOWNS DEAL

What we lovingly call the "down and dirty Downs deal" burst into the headlines as powerful Dem State Senator Tim Jennings declared that the 25 year racino lease recently awarded to the Downs at ABQ should be investigated by law enforcement. (Hello, Attorney General King?). And then came this--the Guv folding her hand in the face of stiff legislative opposition:

Republican Gov. Susana Martinez has withdrawn the nominations of four state fair commissioners after Democratic lawmakers sharply criticized her administration's handling of a 25-year lease for a company to build a larger casino at the state fairgrounds. The governor's move on Monday eliminates the possibility the Senate might reject some of her appointments to the commission, which approved the lease late last year with the Downs at Albuquerque. Jennings of Rowell and other Democrats on the Senate Rules Committee objected to the lease during a confirmation hearing on commissioners. They say the lease was rushed through and questioned whether the Downs got preferential treatment.

The Dem Legislature often had a hard time finding its voice when one of their own--Big Bill--was on the Fourth Floor, but after a year of playing poker with Susana they are learning her moves. Can she keep up with theirs?

Now Senior Alligator analysis direct from the Senate Rules Committee hearing:

Martinez withdrew (86'd) the four state fair commissioners rather than face a floor fight. Two commissioners were approved unanimously by the rules committee ( the two who had opposed the deal). She then tried to lay off the alleged corruption on the commissioners that she appointed and told what to do. She was seriously outmatched by the Senate. She gets nothing through them after today.

Nothing through the Senate? Well, nothing that you are going to give a second glance.

MORE SENATE PUSHBACK

And then there's Senator Linda Lopez, chair of that powerful Rules Committee, who didn't have the stomach to take on a powerful University of New Mexico Board of Regents member when he came before her committee for a confirmation hearing when Big Bill was Guv, but is now unloading both barrels when it comes to Republican Martinez. Santa Fe newsman Milan Simonich, covering for the El Paso Times and with much more aggressive reporting than the blogs and papers in Cruces have had with Susana (welcome to the wrong side of town, Milan) comes with this:

Lopez is challenging the fitness of Gov. Martinez’s nominee to run New Mexico’s prison system. (She) issued a statement today saying she had “strong reservations” about Greg Marcantel, secretary-designate of the Department of Corrections. Lopez chairs the Rules Committee, which does background checks on the governor’s nominees for cabinet posts. She said the Senate’s investigation of Marcantel (left) had turned up an unfavorable work history. “... The background check revealed that he has in fact been suspended twice as a prison guard, and was charged in a civil lawsuit with breach of duty..."

The Guv's office goes ballistic in response, accusing Lopez of conducting a "smear" job. Nope. Attention Fourth Floor (and Fifth), it's a political Movida signaling the start of the election year.You guys have the Dems squirming over repealing driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants and now they've got you squirming over the Downs deal and more.

Martinez and her political team do politics very well, but now we are in the deep weeds of actually running the government. And that's another story--one that is now beginning to fully unfold.

TWO WEEKS OR SO
AP's Massey
About two weeks to go now in the 30 day legislative session and the AP's intrepid Barry Massey, (now the dean of the regular capitol press corps?) has begun the long budget watch:

A proposed $5.6 billion state budget hit a last-minute snag in a House committee Monday after Republicans objected that several of the GOP governor's initiatives might get chopped if the state's revenue outlook dims. The Appropriations and Finance Committee postponed a final vote on the budget, and the chairman, Rep. Henry Kiki Saavedra, D-Albuquerque, said he was surprised by the GOP complaints because members of the panel had tentatively agreed last week on provisions of the spending plan. The budget proposal calls for a spending increase of nearly $216 million, or about 4 percent, in the fiscal year that starts July 1. However, the plan leaves about $41 million available for possible tax cuts - a high priority for the governor - or additional budget increases.

The state has gone from a $6 billion budget and is now crawling back towards $5.6 billion. That's why tax cuts create more resistance than usual.

Whatever happens, Massey's trademark bow tie is sure to have plenty of coffee stains on it by the time the session ends.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012

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Heinrich Says He Has Commanding 52%-22% Lead Over Balderas, Plus: Wilson Vs. Sanchez News; More On City Lawsuits And: Susana Shows Her Frustration

2012-01-30T00:54:00.044-07:00

Seeking to create an air of inevitably, the campaign of Dem US Senate candidate Martin Heinrich has released a poll that shows him pounding rival Hector Balderas 52%-22% among likely voters in the June primary. Among Anglos he leads 57%-15% and among Hispanics his lead is 46%-30%. (Complete poll here.)

This campaign poll and Heinrich's earlier disclosure that at the end of last year he had $1.4 million in the bank (Hector had $475,000 at the end of September) are like a vise tightening on Balderas. He will report his fourth quarter fund-raising this week and if it is not an impressive number, he could start to feel pressure from the Dem establishment to get out of the contest.

Lest his poll be dismissed as simply a case of him having better name ID than Hector, Heinrich's pollsters also said he held a hefty 51% to 28% lead among voters who could identify both Heinrich and Balderas.

If Heinrich's poll has it right and he is indeed over the crucial 50% mark, only harsh negative campaigning by Balderas is likely to get the race in play. Balderas, a former one term state representative elected state auditor in 2010, could also rip open the contest with an unexpectedly strong showing at the March Democratic Party pre-primary convention where delegates vote to place candidates on the June ballot. But these polling numbers and Heinrich's strength in his hometown base of ABQ would seem to make a big convention move by Hector unlikely.

More from the poll which Heinrich's campaign says surveyed 600 likely primary voters, has a margin of error of 4 percent and was conducted with live interviewers, not by robocalls:

58 percent of voters give Heinrich a favorable rating, while just 12 percent view him unfavorably. Moreover, 66 percent of voters approve of the job Heinrich is doing as Congressman. Heinrich’s standing is equally good among Hispanics and Anglos. Balderas has good standing (37 -12 percent favorable-unfavorable, 46 percent job approval), but nowhere near as good as Heinrich’s.

BLOG ANALYSIS & CONTEXT

If you're a Hector fan, the problem with Heinrich is the mistake-free campaign he has run in the early stages. He has aggressively raised money, captured endorsements, toured the state without putting his foot in his mouth and all the while continuing to serve in the US House without incident.

But longtime observers of state politics offer encouragement to Balderas, saying a one-on-one contest between an Anglo and an Hispanic in a statewide Democratic primary can deliver a positive surprise for the Hispanic. As many as 60% of those voting in the June primary will be Hispanic and Heinrich is below the 50% mark with them, although not by much.

As it is, Balderas must soon take the game to Heinrich and force him to drop the ball, but if Hector does that and loses, he makes a major enemy of Heinrich who could be a sitting US Senator. That could thwart any 2014 ambitions Balderas could have for attorney general or Governor.

The Heinrich-Balderas decision has been a painful one for many Dems who like both candidates, but with Rep. Heinrich's commanding lead in money and apparently the polls, the decision is becoming easier. Balderas must do something to keep it difficult.

WILSON'S WAY

GOP Senate candidate Heather Wilson and Heinrich have something in common. Both appear to be headed toward wining their respective June primary nominations. She now reports having $1.1 million in the bank after raising about $375,000 in the last quarter of the year. Her rival, Lt. Governor John Sanchez, will report numbers this week. He has loaned himself several hundred thousand and at the end of September had $249,000 in the bank.

The Sanchez campaign is enigmatic to longtime observers who see him as an attractive candidate but question whether he has put heart and soul into the effort in the early months. Heather has and it shows. Sanchez still has a shot, despite reports that his campaign team has been disrupted. If he attacks Heather and she proves to have a glass jaw, she could shatter. But she is making herself more and more shatter-proof in the same manner as Heinrich--conducting herself professionally with solid fund-raising, touring the state mistake free, getting major endorsements and leaving no room for doubters that that she isn't fully engaged in the battle.

ANOTHER TAKE

Here's the latest take from the National Journal in DC on the NM US Senate contest to fill the seat of retiring Dem Senator Jeff Bingaman:

Both Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Heather Wilson appear to be solidifying their leads over challengers in their respective primaries. A Heinrich-Wilson matchup would focus on the Albuquerque-based district they both represented in Congress. While Democrats are confident in Heinrich's chances, Republicans are starting to view the race as a potential sleeper that could break their way, especially if President Obama's campaign falters.

We have the US Senate race for November ranked "lean Democrat" in the early going. Wilson, the likely GOP nominee, has high negatives, Obama is poised to carry the state and a recent horse-race poll from Dem polling group PPP shows Heinrich would beat Heather by seven points

DATELINE SANTA FE

The Guv is getting frustrated, and who can blame her? Her move to repeal the law permitting driver's license for undocumented immigrants has taken its first step towards the legislative graveyard. In addition, her tax cut proposals are on life support because lawmakers fear the rosy economic projection giving the state a $250 million surplus for the next budget year could disappear in the wake of crashing natural gas prices. Says Susana:

“Politicians who are not economists are starting to second-guess (the forecast) without any real understanding..."

That's kind of funny because state economists have been anything but accurate in their projections the past several years, consistently overstating what the state would take in.

And natural gas prices were crashing again last week. They will hit bottom at some point, but the state takes a significant royalty hit when they dive. That's the problem with being so dependent on oil and gas revenues.

Meanwhile, there's a lot of sympathy for Martinez's proposal to do away with the gross receipts tax for businesses taking in less than $50,000 a year. The problem is it is not revenue neutral. She does not make up for the lost revenue among the top tier of taxpayers or find some other place to replace the cash that would be lost from the tax break.

The administration says there are about 56,000 businesses on the books with annual receipts of less than $50,000, but an unknown number of those are dormant and have no sales. The previous number was about 40,000 for businesses with less than $50,000 in yearly sales. The cost of the tax exemption is now estimated at $24 million annually for the state and $16 million a year for local governments.

ALL OR NOTHING

Martinez and Department of Finance Secretary Clifford might be able to get their tax cut if, for example, they were willing to craft a compromise that did away with some of the unneeded tax credits for the oil and gas industry. But compromise is a word the Fourth Floor uses in year end newspaper interviews but not too much when it comes to the legislative process.

It is the all or nothing attitude that is keeping the Martinez legislative ship from sailing. How about taking a partial win on the driver's license issue and warn lawmakers you are coming back for the full repeal? How about you get the gross receipts tax cut but nick the well-off to finance it? And so much more...

Martinez is now saying she has the votes in the House and Senate to pass the driver's license bill. That's true enough in the House, but the Senate? Huh? Maybe Susana is relying on those economists she trusts so much to also count her votes.

All or nothing appeals to the Guv's GOP base, but they are not going to abandon her if she starts to move a tad to the center. This remains a gubernatorial administration with great potential, but until the Governor learns to outflank the legislature by taking a few of their ideas and melding them into her own, this Guv's ship is going to stay grounded.

THE PERRY FILE
CAO Perry
The Alligator who wondered here last week whether ABQ Chief Administrative Officer Rob Perry had a conflict of interest because of his relationship with prominent GOP attorney Paul Kennedy was not saying that Perry has acted unethically or pushed settlements in police misconduct cases that benefited Kennedy's law firms to the tune of over $2.5 million. The Gator was questioning appearances and urging that the issue be looked at.

Before he worked for the city Perry shared office space with Kennedy, a longtime Perry friend and political associate. Both at one time sought the GOP nomination for attorney general. With the city paying out over $8 million in recent months in settlement money the appearance question would seem more than germane, but former Dem ABQ City Councilor and attorney Michael Cadigan doesn't see it that way. He emails:

Joe, Your post left the impression of illegal, unethical collusion. It left the impression that Rob was associated with Kennedy as a partner/associate lawyer, which he was not. He just rented space. I read it very carefully (both posts) and I don’t think it is fair. I’m not the world’s biggest fan of Mayor Berry, but this attack is unfounded and unfair. The process by which the City decides to settle lawsuits is complicated and involves many people. Rob cannot decide to settle a case on his own.

Thanks for the thoughts, Michael, but Perry is associated with Kennedy! As we said, they shared office space together. They are both longtime Republican lawyers and personal and political friends. And as CAO, Perry (and the mayor) have ultimate sign-off authority on suits.

There is a personal relationship here and it needs to be covered as the city has paid out over $8 million in taxpayer money in two years. It may seem like nitpicking but after the down and dirty Downs deal it seems very timely.

Let's hear Mr. Perry's description of this relationship and how and why it has not influenced the city's decision to settle misconduct cases rather than go to trial. This is not an "attack" but a line of questioning. Not that Mr. Perry has a propensity to answer any of our questions. But if segments of the local media care to shake the impression that it is in the bag for the city administration, it might want to pose these queries. Or better yet let's have the United States Department of Justice ask the many questions that are going unanswered.

TAKING WINNERS

One of our Legal Beagles comes with this explanation on why attorney Kennedy figures so prominently in the settlement of police misconduct cases:

If you look at Kennedy and the record of ( his late partner Mary Han) in civil rights litigation all over New Mexico, you'll see a great degree of success, and a lot of justified payouts. There ain't a soul who can take away from the effort that their practice put out for their clients. It's why they get to cherry-pick the good cases and have the reputation they do (did). Paul just doesn't take on cases that aren't winners anymore because he doesn't have to.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In our ongoing culling of the top five NM sports stories since statehood a century ago Gil Armijo comes with a political take that we appreciate:

The #1 sports story was the 1974 gubernatorial election between Democrat Jerry Apodaca--a running back--versus Joe Skeen--a tight end. The running back won. Nuff' said...

A couple of corrections. Statewide candidates or federal office or for the office of U.S. Representative must turn in petition signatures on Feb. 14. All other legislative and judicial candidates must turn in petitions on March 20. More info here....We speculated that House Speaker Ben Lujan could give his son, northern Dem US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, some of his nearly $100,000 in campaign funds that he will no longer need now that he is retiring. But readers pointed out that federal law prohibits a federal candidate from receiving money from a state campaign account.

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Speaker's $100,000 Campaign Account Up For Grabs; Susana PAC Is Also Flush, And: Mountain Of City Lawsuits Draw More Questions

2012-01-27T00:58:00.029-07:00

$97,000. That's how much cash was in House Speaker Ben Lujan's campaign kitty at the end of last September. But now that he has announced his retirement, he won't be needing it. So where will it go? Probably to a wide array of Dem state House candidates, the Democratic Party and maybe some to charity as well. (In a first draft, we said Speaker Lujan could give campaign funds to his son, Dem Northern Congressman Ben Ray Lujan, but readers pointed out state campaign money can't be given to federal candidates).

The campaign coffers of State Sen. Rod Adair are also being closely watched. Because of redistricting, the Republican lawmaker will have to face off in the June primary with fellow GOP Senator William Burt. At the end of last September he had only $2,000 in his campaign account. And that could be dangerous if Burt wins the support of some long-standing foes of Adair who are flush with cash. In 2008 those foes put up over $300,000 to take out Roswell State Rep. and Adair buddy Dan Foley. (Aah, the memories...)

Adair has not made a formal declaration of his election intentions. There has been rumbling that he could resign and let Burt have the seat. Burt was appointed by Gov Martinez to fill the seat left vacant when Dianna Duran became secretary of state. Maybe Rod--a political demographer--could go to work for Duran who he has close ties to?

This week Adair came again with his proposal that the Islamic law known as "Shariah" be made unconstitutional in the state. That sounds like someone seeking another term and playing to the nominating wing of the GOP in conservative SE NM. We'll know Adair's plans shortly. Petition signatures for legislative candidates are due March 20.

And legislators have reason to fear retribution from Governor Martinez if they again defy her and refuse to repeal the law allowing undocumented immigrants to get a driver's license. Susana PAC, run by her political adviser Jay McCleskey reported at the end of September that it had $300,000 in cash in the bank. Gobs of that money came from the oil and gas industry. The PAC reported spending $250,000. for the time period ending last September. And the spending has continued, The PAC this month put out a piece describing Martinez as a "fighter for New Mexico." That came just in time for the 30 day legislative session. The Susana PAC is in addition to the Guv's campaign account for her re-election in 2014.

No doubt much of that $300K (and more raised since then) will find its way into the districts of Dem legislators that Martinez would like to see retired by the voters this year.

THOSE LAWSUIT PAYOUTS

An Alligator reporting in here this week noted that law firms of prominent ABQ GOP attorney Paul Kennedy have been major recipients of the payouts made in the many police misconduct suits that have been settled by the city. They also reported Kennedy officed with attorney and the city's current Chief Administrative Officer Rob Perry who oversees the city attorney's office. Perry was city attorney before becoming CAO. That brought this reader response:

Your report regarding the payout of $2,553,000 in settlements in 24 cases to Kennedy's law firms is alarming and raises the question of preferential treatment being given to a prominent Republican lawyer by the Berry Administration. What was the extent of Rob Perry's business association or friendship with the firm and was this disclosed before the settlements were approved?

The catalyst for the "no settlement policy" implemented by Mayor Chavez in police misconduct cases was a 1998 Police Oversight Task Force Report submitted to the Albuquerque City Council. The report was a review and study of settlements for tort claims in police misconduct and excessive force cases. The report states that the City was consistently paying out an extraordinary amount of money for tort claims involving APD officer misconduct cases and that the payouts were having a significant impact on city spending. Further, based on comparative data to other cities, the report found that Albuquerque was paying ten (10) times more than it should have paid for tort claims.

The report found that the City Attorney was too quick to settle claims involving police misconduct cases. The new City Attorney in 1998 had implemented a new policy, just like Rob Perry now, to settle rather than fight many claims and the prevailing philosophy was to resolve disputes without a trial. A question raised in the report was: Did the city have a reputation on the street as being an easy target for lawsuits? With Mayor Berry's dropping of the no settlement policy and Rob Perry's attitude to settle claims rather than defend, and now $8 million paid out, the answer is yes, the City is an easy mark!

$8 million dollars could have funded another 100 police officers or 75 fire fighters or for that matter make significant repairs to city facilities, buy more books for our libraries, fund zoo exhibits, repair many a pot hole, fund projects to benefit the entire city or for that matter
reduce our taxes..

TRAIL DUST

On the endorsement front:

The Albuquerque Police Officers Association (APOA) endorsed former Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez in his bid to represent New Mexico's First Congressional District.

“Marty brings strong, results-based leadership to the race and a common sense approach toward making decisions that will be fair, competent and based on the principles of what is right,” said Felipe Garcia, Vice President of the APOA

SILENT CHU

We know things look good for Obama here, but when Energy Secretary Steven Chu dropped into town Thursday we expected to hear a bit more cheer leading for the massive federal funding this state depends on from DOE. The following Chu money lines delivered during a tour of Sandia National Labs aren't going to ring many registers here:

Chu declined to address across-the-board federal spending cuts that are scheduled to take effect on Jan. 1, 2013. The University of New Mexico's Bureau of Business and Economic Research has estimated that those cuts would cost New Mexico a minimum of 20,000 jobs.

And other estimates put the jobs loss from potential federal spending cuts at 50,000. Maybe the estimates are high, but President Obama needs to know that we don't sneeze at the $2 billion plus Sandia gets each year. Maybe Chu's coolness is the downside of no longer being a "swing" state in a presidential election year. If so, maybe the best thing that can happen is for Obama to get into political trouble here. We bet Secretary Chu's tune would change then.

COMING IN
Montoya
Bernalillo County Assessor Karen Montoya jumps into the race for the Dem nomination for the ABQ Public Regulation Commission seat this weekend, setting up a stimulating primary between her, outgoing State Rep. and attorney Al Park and Cynthia Hall, an attorney for the PRC.

Montoya, addressing the elephant in the room that is Park's $250,000 plus campaign account, says:

She is proud to be a publicly funded candidate. "My top priority is to restore integrity to the office of PRC. As a publicly funded candidate I have received limited but powerful dollars that have come from the hands of the taxpayers I will protect."

Republicans have a shot at this seat which is being vacated by Jason Marks. We'll let you know who gets in from their side of the aisle. The position pays $90,000 a year and is known more for the antics of the individual commissioners than the actual important work of regulating the utility industry and others that the commission is charged with. State Auditor Hector Balderas came this week with yet another damning report of PRC practices.

And then the PRC circus continued with Balderas calling for PRC Chairman Pat Lyons, a Republican, to resign. And then Lyons called on Balderas to resign. And then, Jerome Block, Jr. came in and handed everyone a bunch of downers and they all took a nap (just kidding).

When Susana appointed independent Douglas Howe to fill the northern seat left vacant when Jerome Block, Jr. resigned he did not say whether he would run this year for a full term. He now says he won't. That PRC district is heavy Dem and is expected to stay that way. A number of contenders have already announced.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Democratic consultant and CNN commentator Donna Brazile is coming to the University of New Mexico to kick off the school's Black History Month. The former campaign manager for former Vice President Al Gore is scheduled to speak at the university's annual Black History Month Kick-off Brunch on Jan. 28.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

Thanks for stopping by this week.

Reporting to you from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

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Obama Heads West But Not Here; Is NM Safe For Him? Plus: Berry's Cross: Money For Paseo Rebuild, And: "Fighting Irishman" Looks To Sidestep Susana

2012-01-26T00:54:00.002-07:00

New Mexico Dems have reason to be increasingly confident about their 2012 election prospects and the reason resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. President Obama's rejuvenation--if that's what it turns out to be--could foil the R's hopes of picking up a couple of state House seats and taking control of the chamber. And they could also be denied the open ABQ congressional seat and the big prize--the open US Senate seat.

Obama gave a solid state-of-the-state speech, his probable GOP rival--Romney or Gingrich--both polled tepidly in New Mexico in a December survey.

The biggest "tell" on where the White House and the Dems think they stand in the state came on the heels of the President's Tuesday night speech, The next day he took off for Iowa, Michigan and our neighbors in Nevada Colorado and Arizona. New Mexico, often a crucial swing state in a presidential contest, was notably absent from Obama's stopover list. Obama strategists apparently see New Mexico's five electoral votes as pretty much nailed down:

...Of five paths that Obama campaign manager Jim Messina has charted to win re-election in November, all foresee winning Michigan, three require winning Iowa, two require Colorado and Nevada, and one has Arizona in the Obama win column. In 2008, of the five states he's visiting, Mr. Obama only lost Arizona, the home state of then rival John McCain.

Hispanic voters in particular seem poised to return the Obama fold in the wake of the Romney-Gingrich takeover. Neither contender are seen as having outsized appeal to state Hispanics, a key voting bloc here. And Obama's newfound populism could serve to pump turnout in liberal bastions like the SE Heights of ABQ and Santa Fe County.

In addition, we are told Washington GOP insiders remain cautious on their prospects for the Senate and ABQ House contest. While R's here are shouting down a poll from the Dem-favorable firm PPP, in DC they are much more realistic. They are not sneering about Dem Martin Heinrich's seven point lead over Republican Heather Wilson in that December survey. A strong Obama in New Mexico is only going to complicate matters when it comes time for the national R's to decide how much money to dedicate to a state that two years ago looked much more promising.

WHY SHOULD THEY?
Berry
Will the Dem Legislature bail out the Republican ABQ mayor and approve millions of dollars of funds for a rebuild of the busy Paseo Del Norte-I-25 interchange? Why should they? Berry stepped in the manure pile last October when he refused to have a stand-alone vote on the Paseo bond money. Instead, if voters wanted Paseo they also had to vote for bond money for Berry's unpopular sportsplex proposal. As a result, Paseo went down in flames (62% to 38%) in an example of one of the worst political chess moves in recent city history.

Sure, the city council has since come with bond money and Governor Martinez is trying to help Berry out by asking the Legislature to put up $30 million to get the rebuild going and even the Bernalillo County Commission is getting in on the act. Commissioners approved $5 million for Paseo. But Berry lost important public support that could have helped him carry the day. The screw-up could cost him dearly. Democrats in Santa Fe can stall the funding and come October 2013 when Berry is seeking re-election, they can blame him for the Paseo traffic jams. Maybe Santa Fe gives Berry a token amount for the project so ABQ Dem legislators have political cover, but otherwise this is a golden opportunity to leave Berry hanging and twisting in the wind.

SUSANA WHO?

She's the talk of the town around here, but a national poll of Hispanics says more than half of them have never heard of her. Fifty-one percent of the registered voters nationally did not know of Susana. That number grew to 57% in California.

CHU ON THIS

The nation's energy chief, Dr. Steven Chu, drops in on ABQ today amid continued nervousness over long-term funding prospects for Sandia National Labs which falls under the Department of Energy umbrella. Even though the Labs get zinged on occasion for having a bunch of pampered scientists, the budget of over $2 billion a year is vital to the city's economy.

On Thursday Secretary of Energy Steven Chu will travel to Albuquerque to tour renewable energy research facilities at Sandia National Laboratories, which is working to advance industry collaboration on clean energy and advanced manufacturing. Secretary Chu will also host a State of the Union Town Hall with students at the University of New Mexico. Secretary Chu will be joined during the visit by U.S. Congressman Martin Heinrich.

Sandia and Los Alamos have good funding visibility for the rest of this calender year. It's what comes after the presidential election that is worrisome. And, yes, we noticed that Rep. Heinrich will be the lead politico with Chu. Sorry, Hector, but that's a federal incumbent's advantage.

JUMPING THE GUN?

ABQ Dem congressional candidate Eric Griego may be getting a bit ahead of himself with this statement:

It’s too bad then that Republicans in Washington and my Tea Party Republican opponent Dan Lewis continue to insist on policies that brought about the worst economic recession since the Great Depression and created the worst income inequality between the top 1% and the rest in our nation’s history.

Well, Dan Lewis is not yet anyone's opponent and Eric Griego is not yet the Dem nominee for the ABQ US House seat. Griego has two opponents as does Lewis. There's this little thing called the June primary to determine who will be the final two candidates for the November election. Maybe Eric's 2012 calender got lost in the mail.

FIGHTING IRISHMAN
Rep. O'Neill
He is in a district he hangs on to by a thread, and when ABQ Dem State Rep. Bill O'Neill defied the Republican Governor by voting against her bill to repeal driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants, he felt her wrath and that of her operatives. They flooded his district with robocalls in hopes of softening him up for November. Now O'Neill, aka, "The Fighting Irishman," is looking for some armor for the next round of hits he will take on the emotional issue. His office reports:

State Representative Bill O’Neill, House District 15, introduced a bill today that represents the simplest and most effective solution to the volatile driver’s license issue. His bill, House Bill 171, calls for issuing a provisional driver’s license to foreign nationals who do not have a social security number.

Such an approach would solve the fraud problem instantly,” O’Neill said, “as the provisional license would not be valid outside of New Mexico. Therefore, individuals would not come here to take advantage of our current law. At the same time, the whole point of providing access to car insurance for these individuals would be safeguarded, which was the intent of the 2003 legislation.

That should help O'Neill when the Guv's guns are again fired his way, but is there any chance he will crack and move over to Susana's corner on this one? No, says O'Neill:

When Governor Martinez states that 74% of New Mexicans support her approach, she is wrong. 74% of New Mexicans want the fraud problem ended immediately, and my bill does precisely that.

In the redistricting boundaries approved by the court, O'Neill's district did not get much better for him, if at all. He's going to have to live up to his nickname to keep the seat and keep fighting.

LICENSE HEAT

The firestorm over the licenses continued this week with a robust rally against repeal held at the Roundhouse and the Associated Press coming with a widely distributed report raising questions about abuse of the system. For example, the report cited multiple licenses being issued to persons using an ABQ smoke shop as their address. The issue goes before a legislative committee today. State Senate Dems came with damage control in the hours following the AP report:

The current law must be strengthened to include provisions that clearly address the flaws. Repealing the law and forcing a fraction of the driving population to go without proper licensing, registration or insurance puts New Mexican families at risk. That is why in the last session we fought for a law that would directly address the challenges that we face. The compromise bill would have required license renewal every two years, required fingerprints in a database that would have been available to all departments of law enforcement and would have raised the penalties for those who knowingly provided false paperwork for foreign nationals...

There's no calling off the dogs now. The license repeal is expected to fail for the third time and then it goes to the political arena in the form of campaigning for the legislative races. If Martinez can't win passage of the repeal on her third try she will have to knock some legislators out in November if she is to have any credibility when she brings it up for a fourth time in 2013.

(What do you mean, a "fourth time," Joe? Hey, we've got a new slogan in New Mexico politics--"All Driver's Licenses, All The Time." )

SHE DIDN'T KILL FILM

Reader Jim McCaughey thinks Susana got a bad rap here Tuesday from the ProgressNow PAC who charged her with stifling the film industry:

Joe, Has anyone looked at the actual number for the film tax credits? First, the new $50 million cap on film rebates is a rolling cap, so a film maker can get all of the credits coming to him. It is just that some may be paid in the next fiscal year. 2010 was a down year, but 2011 was better Over $73 million in tax credits were paid out in 2011. The film industry had one of it's worst years at the box office last year. Other states have all cut back on film credits. New Mexico is still very competitive. Film makers are just not filming as much. The idea that Governor Martinez has killed the film industry all by herself is completely false.

And we might add the film industry here is far from dead. News recently broke that the Lone Ranger will film here, a production of more than $200 million.

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New Mexico's New Era Reflected In A Lackluster Santa Fe, Plus: ABQ Becomes Lawsuit City, And: Nancy Lopez And How She Made State History

2012-01-25T00:54:00.019-07:00

The dynamic that has prevailed in Santa Fe since the Republican Governor took charge with a Dem-controlled Legislature remains fully intact one week into the 2012 legislative session. And that dynamic is gridlock. In other words, not a whole lot of meaningful legislation is going to get to the desk of the Guv. What will get done is the primary task of a short, 30 day session--the crafting of a budget. Somehow that gets lost anymore as even the short sessions get flooded with as nearly as many topics as the longer 60 day sessions (see below) that are held in odd-numbered years.

Ironically, the gridlock serves Martinez's political interests. GOP Governors in other states (Ohio's Kasich and Wisconsin's Walker come to mind) are in deep trouble because they have been successful in pushing through conservative agendas--particularly with regards to unions. Martinez has a disdain for unions, but she has not gone over the top in trying to curb their influence. Other proposals that could make the drumbeat of opposition louder from various interest groups--repeal of the law permitting undocumented immigrants to get a driver's license and Voter ID--have gone nowhere and are going nowhere. There's cause to grumble over what the Guv is offering but no reason to take up arms against her because she is not implementing what she passionately and repeatedly referred to as "bold change" during her 2010 campaign.

Martinez continues to govern from the middle when it comes to the budget. For the second year, her differences with the legislature's proposal are minuscule. There are no sweeping arguments in the capitol over the fundamental direction of government spending. Education and Medicaid will continue to receive the lion's share of state funds, although higher education funding is in the Guv's crosshairs and she has made a mark by not filling a number of state government vacancies.

Both the Guv and legislative Democrats have gravitated toward the jobs issue as the November election approaches, but she would veto most of the Dem plans if they reach her desk and the Dems will send most of hers to the legislative graveyard. Net change? Pretty much zero.

New Mexico and its state government remain in a holding pattern as a result of its soft economy and divided government. New state revenue projections (guesses?) this week say that the extra $250 million predicted for the next budget year will still be available despite crashing natural gas prices. Still, we are in a new era where political leaders take much smaller bites out of the pie. Gone are the days of building a Spaceport, launching a Rail Runner, sending rebate checks to citizens, the booming state construction industry and fat state government payrolls. Now the big ideas are the Guv's relatively small tax cut package and the Dems equally modest jobs initiative.

The punch bowl was long ago drained and taken away. There will be no repeat of those manic boom years--at least not in any time frame that matters. New Mexico has entered a new era of minimalism. As a result Santa Fe looks much smaller and much less interesting. It carries on like a lone sentry who is guarding the fort in the wee morning hours. He waits for something to happen but it rarely does.

MESSY MESSAGING

When the stakes are low, the players can get sloppy:

In a rare procedural move, Gov. Martinez reversed course by scaling back the scope of topics up for debate in the House during the ongoing 30-day legislative session...Martinez issued 80 so-called executive messages last week, the first week of the legislative session, clearing the way for debate on issues ranging from reinstatement of the death penalty to transporting hay. However, after Martinez staffers met with legislative leaders...the Governor’s Office requested that 34 messages to the House be withdrawn..In addition, 12 new messages were introduced, in some cases replacing messages that had been pulled back. Some legislative leaders had expressed concern that the large scope of the executive messages could lead to a logjam of bills.

When Martinez hired a former GOP legislator as her chief of staff observers speculated that it would make for smooth sailing for the Guv in dealing with lawmakers. It hasn't happened. Hey, maybe they can call back former Rep. Brian Moore who was a deputy chief of staff in the Guv's office, but didn't last long.

LAWSUIT CITY

Readers of this space have known of the soaring costs of lawsuits against the City of ABQ in police misconduct cases. Retired APD Seargent Dan Klein alerted us last year that the costs was approaching $7 million for the last two years--since Mayor Berry took over--and TV news came with a December report. Now the news comes from the ABQ Journal which pegs the lawsuit costs at $8 million for the last two years. From Jan. 2010 to August 2011 there were 20 police shootings, 15 of them fatal. Lawsuits stemming from most of those shootings are still pending. But that's only part of the story. Most of these misconduct cases have been settled out of court and that's where one of our Alligators comes in:

Missing from the ABQ Journal story was any real investigation of where the checks are going and why. Prior to become the City Attorney and then the Chief Administrative Officer, Rob Perry was a plaintiff's lawyer who officed at the law firm of Kennedy and Hahn.

Between February 4, 2010 and December 6, 2011 the City of Albuquerque has cut 24 checks to Kennedy and Hahn and the Kennedy Law Firm (15 to Kennedy/Hahn and 9 to Kennedy). The total dollar amount is $2,553,015.00 Depending on the arrangement, attorneys receive anywhere from one-third to one-half of amounts won. That could mean anywhere from from $850,000 to $1.3 million in taxpayer dollars have gone to plaintiff lawyers under the oversight of former plaintiff lawyer Perry.

All of these cases could easily have gone to court and been tried. But why do that when you have what are essentially corporate lawyers in the City Attorney's office who are terrified of a courtroom and a CAO who seems willing to open the city's coffers and cut checks to his former trial lawyer pals?

That's heavy ammo fired in CAO Perry's direction, but not without reason. We welcome any comments from his corner.

THE SPORTING LIFE
Nancy Lopez
Reader Susan Loubet joined in on the discussion here of what should be the top five NM sports stories since statehood by saying:

How about as a top five sports story Nancy Lopez being able to play on the Roswell golf team after Congress passed Title IX--the law mandating gender equality in school athletics?

But veteran ABQ attorney Roberta Cooper Ramo says the record needs to be corrected:

Joe, Susan Loubet is right that Nancy Lopez deserves lots of attention for all of her sports accomplishments. It was not Title IX that allowed Nancy to play on the boys team at her high school in Roswell, it had not yet been enacted.

Nancy was looking forward to her playing on the boys team because there were no girls teams in New Mexico high schools. When the New Mexico Activities Association sent the Goddard High principal a letter indicating that Nancy could not play on the high school golf team, her parents ended up contacting the ACLU. Soon Nancy and her parents were joined by several girls who played tennis. This went to the State School Board...and the rule was overturned.

One of the best moments was when I was given a settlement offer that would have meant that only Nancy as a national champion could have played. When I explained the offer, Mrs. Lopez asked if the girls who wanted to play tennis would also be allowed to play. When I said no, she told me to get back to Albuquerque and not come back until “all of the girls can play.” This was a moment of great courage and principle for the Lopez family.

...From this story and many others around the country came the important advances for women athletes in the subsequent passage of Title IX. But the state of New Mexico and many of its people deserve credit for leading the way and Nancy’s national prominence was a huge part of making that happen.

Interesting stuff. It brings back memories of Nancy's incredible rookie season on the LPGA tour when she won nine tournaments. The Chaves County native now lives in Georgia, but her contribution to civil rights here as well as her worldwide contribution to the growth of women's golf is truly one of the top stories--sports or otherwise--during New Mexico's first 100 years of statehood.

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Chavez-Griego Tensions Start To Surface in ABQ House Race, Plus: Susana, The Senate And Jobs, Also: Sports Beat Grabs Reader Attention

2012-01-24T00:58:00.047-07:00

Udall & Heinrich
Rep. Martin Heinrich looks more than ready to join Tom Udall in the US Senate in this pic we snapped of the pair at a reception put on by NM Sikhs following the opening day ceremonies of the NM Legislature. We asked Heinrich if we could dub the photo a Udall endorsement of his Senate candidacy. He quickly quipped, "It's my endorsement of Tom Udall."

Heinrich faces Hector Balderas in the June primary. Udall has not endorsed either contender. Udall faces re-election to a second six year Senate term in 2014. At that time he will be the state's senior senator as Jeff Bingaman retires at the end of this year.

The Sikhs based in Espanola run Akal Security, a major provider of security services for the federal government.

TENSION ERUPTS

Not surprisingly the tension is already boiling to the surface in what will be a hotly contested race for the Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat. A progressive political action committee that is backing State Sen. Eric Griego for the nomination put out a robo-poll that raised ethics questions about his chief rival--former Mayor Marty Chavez. The PAC hasn't released the details of the poll, but enough Chavez backers received it that his campaign came with a letter from them condemning the survey as a "smear attack sent under the guise of scientific polling."

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee says it ran a 35 question poll of 513 likely primary voters. A spokesman for Griego said the campaign has absolutely nothing" to do with the survey, but questioned why Chavez was so upset. "Maybe it hit a nerve," he said.

Chavez has had long-standing problems with the progressive wing of the Dem Party. No doubt one of the ethics issued poll was ABQPAC, a fund-raising scandal that erupted in 2001 when Chavez was mayor.

Also running in the Dem contest is Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham. Her supporters are hoping that Eric and Marty will go after one another and she will benefit. We appear to be very close to having that theory checked out.

THE GUV AND JOBS

A counterpoint to a portion of our take on Governor Martinez and job creation. We said:

Not that it's the sole chore of the state's governor to "create jobs" and it's not as though Martinez's administration has done nothing.

The counterpoint comes from Pat Davis of the new progressive group ProgressNow NM:

It is almost as though Martinez has done nothing. She campaigned against the state being involved in the Spaceport, until pollsters told her to be for it. The negotiation for a tax package for Union Pacific to relocate to Santa Teresa was begun under the last administration and it is not clear how many of the 2,000 temporary construction jobs and estimated 600 long-term jobs to be created are any more than their old El Paso employees driving 15 miles up the road to work. Surely they don't plan to just fire their existing Texas workforce to hire only unemployed New Mexicans.

TE Connectivity, also referenced in the governor's state-of-the-state speech, sure didn't. The first 100 jobs they announced at their new plant were "relocated from El Paso." And her poisonous rhetoric against the film industry stopped that investment in its tracks...On second thought, it seems as though Martinez has done a lot, just not a lot she may want to admit.

JOBS, JOBS, JOBS

State Senate Democrats also think Martinez and company are vulnerable on the jobs issue as we go into an election season. They came with an 11 point plan to put more New Mexicans back to work. The one that caught our eye was the $300 million in capital outlay money for infrastructure projects. We could stand to see an even higher number, but if Santa Fe could get behind the $300 million it would be a boon for a number of industries afflicted by the state's construction depression.

Even though the Dems see a leadership vacuum from the Fourth Floor when it comes to jobs, Susana hasn't been absent without leave of late. Her proposal to do away with the gross receipts tax for many small businesses and her appreciation for a healthy dose of capital outlay has buttressed her jobs credentials.

NOT A SECRETARY YET

From Santa Fe, Jeremy Rutherford writes of a recent reference to "Secretary of Education Skandera:"

Joe, Skandera is not Secretary, she is a Secretary-designate. This absolutely needs to be corrected. It is unfair to those that have been confirmed. She hasn't been confirmed, and there are many reasons why. It's not simply because they didn't have time last year.

Skandera has been a lightning rod for the Governor and it seems she continues to draw strikes. The Dem-oriented Independent Source PAC has come with a sharp critique. The PAC was also in the fore in investigating the state's awarding of a controversial lease to the Downs at ABQ racetrack and casino. It's new report asserts:

If Governor Martinez wants to crack down on corruption, she needs to start with the contract she engineered between the Downs and the state of New Mexico. If this contract is allowed to stand, the new racino will stand as a shrine to blatant bid rigging and exclusionary pay-to-play politics in state government.

The administration insists the rules were followed in awarding the Downs lease. Laguna Development Corporation, which lost its bid for the lease, is challenging that contention.

Between the Independent Source PAC and ProgressNow NM, the Martinez opposition seems to be finding its sea legs. Her first year the opposition was nowhere near as organized.

VP SUSANA

We get this from ABQ Journal columnist Leslie Linthicum on Governor Martinez and whether she would accept the VP spot on the 2012 GOP presidential ticket:

Martinez is actually on the record in a December 2010 interview saying she would not interrupt her first term to accept a vice-presidential position. This is the quoted answer to the question that appeared in the column: “The next four years for me are here in New Mexico,” Martinez promised.

Thanks for that, Leslie. We notice that she made that statement before she actually became Governor, but it doesn't dissuade us from ignoring any denials of vice-presidential interest. Well, maybe if she calls Romney and Gingrich on the phone and told them that under no circumstances would she accept the VP nomination and then conducted a news conference to repeat the conversation, we might bend a little. Otherwise, watch what they do not what they say.

THE TOP FIVE

That recent blog featuring the top five NM sports stories since statehood a century ago authored by lobbyist Bruce Donisthorpe continues to evoke email responses. Here we go....

From photographer Mark Bralley:

Tommy McDonald, born in Roy, is not the only New Mexico member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Ronnie Lott was Born May 8, 1959, in Albuquerque, New Mexico and is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

From ABQ's Susan Loubet:

Joe, How about as a top five sports story Nancy Lopez being able to play on the Roswell golf team after Congress passed Title IX--the law mandating gender equality in school athletics?

Taos native Rodger Beimer weighs in:

Lest we forget a Taoseno, George Brooks coached the 2004 UNM Ski Team to the only NCAA Championship UNM has ever received.

From Washington D.C. lobbyist Jim Richards:

..Greatly disappointed that my former colleague Bruce Donisthorpe left out my hometown Animas Panthers. They had 69 straight wins in AA football (still top ten all time nationally!!) until losing to the hated Lordsburg Mavericks 9-8. Seven consecutive state championships, the last of which was an Animas drubbing of the Mavericks 36-0 in the rematch of the streak ending loss!

And ABQ reader Lissa Knudsen, a Dem, says she's had enough of sports infiltrating our political blog:

According to Frank Luntz, the infamous Republican pollster who deserves much of the credit for delivering the '94 Republican majority in the House, speaking about sports is ill advised for politicians.

"...The problem with far too many male politicians and executives is that they tend to make everything into a sports analogy. In my years of interviewing women from all across the country and in all walks of life, I've consistently found that this drives women insane...Men use baseball metaphors, golf metaphors, football metaphors - and often these sports metaphors are graphic and violent...Thanks, Joe, as always for your engaging commentary.

Thanks to all of our sports authorities for their emails. We can't promise Lissa that there won't be a few more, but we assure her and you that the game of La Politica will always reign supreme around here.

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Come On Guv, You Want It And We Know It, Plus: Harry After Ben Ray, Barela Is Out, And: Senator Rebuts State Of State; All Next On A Big Monday Blog

2012-01-23T00:54:00.038-07:00

Let's clear this up for those who may be new at this. The following statement from Governor Martinez in reaction to Mitt Romney mentioning her as a possible vice-presidential running mate in no way rules out her taking the Veep nomination, if offered:

"She has no interest in serving as vice president and will not be a candidate for the position."

Not going to be a "candidate." Huh? There are no "candidates." The presidential nominee will select who he wants--"candidate" or not. And even if Martinez said she wouldn't take the VP position, if offered, we would believe it about as much as someone telling us the fix wasn't in on the Downs at ABQ deal. How many times in American history have we heard politicos say they would no way consider becoming VP only to end up on the ticket? The rules of traditional journalism just can't get at this angle. It has to accept at face value these somewhat incredulous statements and send them out. We're not saying it's good that you have us around, but we're just sayin'....

Susana is being repeatedly mentioned by the "Great Mentioners " and now Romney because she is a Hispanic female Republican Governor--that rarest of political species. Not bad for her but as we've blogged in the past it has nothing to do with her ability as governor, and it can make Mr. & Mrs. New Mexico pretty jumpy that yet another of their chief executives is flirting on the national stage while this state continues to struggle across a a variety of fronts. The days when the citizenry around here glowed in the afterglow of national mentions of our office holders disappeared with the Macarena.

To refresh your memory which may be wandering as you bask in this mid-January bout of spring-like weather, we now have three Guvs in a row--Johnson, Richardson and Martinez--who have pursued national ambitions, although Johnson waited until he was no longer Guv. We just can't swallow that Kool-Aid from the "Fifth Floor," no matter how sweet. We see Susana clearly in a "pursuing" position.

Gentle reader, do you really think Susana political consultant Jay McCleskey (the de facto Guv, and Susana's in-house Svengali) is doing anything to discourage the speculation or not kissing up to Romney (or Gingrich)? No. But then that's why he gets the big bucks. As for Susana, it's a politician's job to be ambitious. So don't bother to spin us that in the highly improbable event that this Guv is offered the veep nomination, she will flatly reject it. Well, at least show some respect and don't spin the Alligators. They've got ties that are older than the kids putting this stuff out.

HARRY'S HOPE
Montoya
Former Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya has launched a long shot bid to upset northern Congressman Ben Ray Lujan in the June Dem primary. The two clashed before, in 2008, when Montoya and Lujan were among the contenders who battled for the then open seat. Insiders say animus between the two camps linger. In announcing, Montoya said he is dedicating his campaign to his late father who died from the "horrible" disease of cancer. That was not lost on the Wall-Leaners who noted that it was only last Tuesday that Lujan's father, House Speaker Ben Lujan revealed that he has advanced lung cancer. Make of it what you will, but it came across as kind of odd. If Harry was trying to ward off any sympathy vote for Ben Ray because of his father's condition, it didn't quite make the grade.

Montoya's major challenge, as you might guess, will be raising enough cash to build his candidacy into more than an idle threat. Also, will he be able to get 20 percent of the delegate vote at the Dem pre-primary convention in March? If he doesn't, he would have to get petition signatures to get on the June ballot. No candidate who has been denied the 20 percent has ever won a congressional primary. Can Lujan stop Montoya at the convention and basically end it all there?

By most accounts we've gathered, Ben Ray has turned in a solid performance in his first two terms, but he still has not established the reputation that will quell unrest among the natives and make the seat unquestionably his. That will come in time. Maybe having hopeful Harry to defeat will hasten the effort. (There's another Dem candidate running against Lujan--musician Sean Closson--who poses no threat).

NOT A GAS (CONT)

We are natural gas trackers around here, and our readers have kept us ahead of the curve about the plunging price of the commodity and how that may wreak havoc with the prediction that the state will have a revenue surplus of $250 million to appropriate for the budget year that begins July 1st. We were glad to see the ABQ Journal finally come with a definitive explanation on how natural gas prices are figured and how they relate to the over $5.6 billion budget. The piece was done by James Monteleone, the former education writer who now takes over as the paper's political reporter, replacing Sean Olson who left for Idaho.

BARELA BOWS OUT

It was not a shocker, but it did clear the air when Jon Barela, the 2010 GOP nominee for the ABQ congressional seat and the current economic-development secretary-designate (the state senate has yet to confirm him to the Guv's cabinet), told the newspaper Friday afternoon that he would not take a second bite out of the apple.

Barela's possible entrance into the race was driving the other hopefuls crazy and causing a run on anti-depressants at Walgreen's, never mind cramping their ability to raise money. And Barela waiting to the last minute to say he would not run again went down with them about as well as corn flakes without milk.

But this is politics so there was no gasping when Janice Arnold-Jones immediately put out a news release calling him a "fantastic" economic development director-designate. Well, Janice's hyperbole can be forgiven, one supposes, as she now faces a freshly formidable Dan Lewis, the ABQ city councilor and pastor who is now being dubbed the front-runner in the wake of Barela's announcement. But Lewis is new and will not get it without a fight from Janice and maybe one from retired Army Seargent Gary Smith. He's been flying below the radar, but was back in DC last week visiting with such PACS as the National Rifle Association and National Right to Life. He has also seeded his effort with some $125,000 of his own cash and insiders say there could be more to come.

Whoever wins the ABQ GOP House nomination will go into the fall election as the underdog. And that's something new. The district was held by the GOP from '69 until '08 when Dem Martin Heinrich scored victory. The crystal ball gazers say it may be much more difficult for the GOP to take it back. Why? Re-districting improves Republican performance in the district by about 1 percent, but that's in the face of the district trending Dem.

And then there's Obama. What did he carry Bernalillo County by in 2008? Wasn't it over a previously unimaginable margin of nearly 60,000 votes? He'll be back on the ballot and even if his margin was chopped in half or more--say a 25,000 vote win, it's hard to see how the Dem congressional candidate would not be carried in on on his coattails.

It seems the DC chattering class is catching on. Longtime prognosticator Larry Sabato has just ranked the ABQ congressional seat as "likely Democrat" in the November election. No more "toss-up" or even "lean Dem." And because of the Obama factor (he still polls well in ABQ) we agree. But hold on. There's 2014 when voter turnout drops and the Republicans can again see the light. Well, yes, but our local dry cleaner hasn't yet put out their free calender for 2014, so we'll pass on that one.

SENATE SIDE
Balderas & Lewis
We caught up with State Auditor and Dem US Senate candidate Hector Balderas at the Martin Luther King Jr. annual ABQ breakfast and snapped this pic of him with Dem State Treasurer Jim Lewis. We felt like a shaggy dog next to these two guys. But both have been champion vote-getters with the hairy as well as the hairless set. Lewis especially so, wracking up huge winning margins in past races for Bernalillo County treasurer as well as state treasurer.

Not to worry you too much Hector, but when James B. made a run for the ABQ US House seat back in '90 he didn't fare too well, losing the nomination to Rebecca Vigil-Giron who in the fall lost to Rep. Steve Schiff.

We broke the news here last week that Rep. Heinrich, who Balderas is challenging for the nomination, showed $1.4 million in cash on hand at the end of December. At the end of September, Hector said he had $465,000. His new cash total will come at the end of the month, but it's not going to be anywhere near Heinrich's number, but at least Hector is saving money on haircuts.

Do we need to repeat here that any money Hector has left over from a Senate run could legally be used for a state campaign like attorney general or Governor? Nah, we don't need to do that, do we?

MISTAKEN STATE OF STATE?
Ortiz y Pino
Susana's annual state-of-the-state address delivered at last Tuesday's opening of the 2012 legislative session picked at an old sore with us--the administration's exaggeration of how it tamed the state's budget shortfall during its first year in office. Dem State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino was in the chamber for the talk and crafted this critique:

Joe, The Governor managed the ever-difficult double parlay of misstating history and claiming credit for someone else's work, all in the same paragraph. She first gave the good news that we have escaped the "worst problem of structural debt in our state's history this year..." Not so. We were in far worse shape fiscally three years ago. She arrived on the scene two years into the recovery from the depths of the problem. This year our cash reserves will be right around 10%--a far cry from last year's 4.5% or the previous year's microscopic 0.5%. And the cuts in spending have been similarly scaled down each of these past three years. So the welcome recovery began three years ago, not this past year.

Then, when it came to explaining the improvement, she managed to ignore the single biggest factor of all. Sure her Administration has been thrifty. But selling the jet, firing the chefs and getting rid of cell phones made only a tiny impression on the state's debt. What has turned around our fiscal picture has been increased revenues: oil prices and volume have been high (to our fiscal benefit) and natural gas, until recently, also was a robust revenue source for us.

But what the Governor has never acknowledged is that the tax increases we voted in during the last special session of the Richardson era (and that the GOP used against Democratic House incumbents in that Fall's election, not an insignificant factor in the loss of six seats the Dems suffered then) have done exactly what they were designed to do: produce additional revenue. That's the reason we have a stronger budget this year. And that's why her plan to resume cutting taxes is so dangerous. It's a mistake Bill Richardson made and that continues to make us bleed fiscally.

Yep, Ortiz y Pino, 69, is one of the state's leading liberals and a routine critic of the Guv, but on this one he has it nailed. We welcome those who disagree to pen a rebuttal, but we don't think our email box will be flooded.

We won't bother to repost the AP story reflecting how Martinez and the legislature trimmed $150 million from state spending in her first budget, not the $450 million "structural deficit" that she insists on taking credit for. And we guess we won't get into why Richard May lasted about as long as a snowfall in Hobbs as head of the Department of Finance & Administration.

And to those who think we've been too tough on the Guv, flash back to our coverage of Dem Big Bill's administration, he liked it so much he had toilet paper with our name on it. So it goes....

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Politicos Banter Over State's Top Sports Stories Of First 100 Years, Plus: More On Susana's Grades

2012-01-20T00:54:00.017-07:00

It goes without saying that our readers enjoy the political fray, but for some of them their passion for sports is on par with their love of La Politica. We were reminded of that this week when we posted the top five sports stories since statehood was achieved in 1912. Or at least the top five as seen through the lens of longtime GOP political operative and lobbyist Bruce Donisthorpe. Talk about setting off an argument. Poor Bruce was excoriated for his efforts by a parade of other sports aficionados who then sent in their own lists of what they consider the top sports stories. Before we post them, Donisthorpe says we need to point out that his was actually a top ten list, but the blog trimmed it to the top five. As for the charge that he is an "Aggie" which was hurled at Donisthorpe who is a former top aide to southern NM GOP Rep. Joe Skeen, he retorts: "If I am such an Aggie, how come I left Lobogate off my top five?

Well, it seems these sports fans know more about negative campaigning than the politicos.

So what big stories were on the other lists? Let's find out. ABQ Dem State Rep. Moe Maestas, whose late father, Frank, was a longtime and top sports writer for the ABQ Journal, has sports in his DNA and comes with a "Top Six" list. Never mind that we were looking for the top five. You know how they count in Santa Fe:

July 4, 1912, New Mexico hosted the world heavyweight championship fight! Guess where? In Las Vegas of course. Jack Johnson overcame several head butts to knock out “Fireman” Jim Flynn in the 9th.

1920: Roy W. Johnson moved from Michigan to Albuquerque to recover from the effects of gas poisoning suffered in World War I. He took over as the one-man physical education department, coached every sport and served as Lobo athletic director until 1959.

October 27, 1922, argue-ably the best baseball player from NM, Ralph Kiner, was born in Santa Rita (near Bayard). Kiner was a five time NL All-Star and hit 54 HR’s for the Pirates in 1949.

1956: Highland High grad, Tommy McDonald, lead Oklahoma to its second straight national title and finished 3rd in the Heisman voting. At 5’7, 172, he’s the smallest player (and only New Mexican) in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

July 18, 1997: Although the fight did not take place in NM, Johnny Tapia defeated Danny Romero for the 114 lb. world championship in one of the greatest boxing matches in the history of the sport.

March 2, 1983: Still NM’s greatest moment as NC State and Coach Jimmy Valvano upsets Houston’s Phi Slama Jama (Hakeem Olajuwon & Clyde Drexler) in the PIT for the National Title. If I didn’t see it with my own eyes I would not have believed it.

Honorable mention, June 16, 1962: A young scribe from Highland’s University started working for the Journal and brought NM’s love of high school sports to NM’s largest newspaper (That would be Moe's dad, Frank).

ANOTHER TOP FIVE

Longtime blog reader Dave Matthews says Bruce's list was shortsighted in "a big city way" so he comes with his top fie stores since statehood:

1969. Eastern New Mexico Greyhounds won the NAIA National Men's Basketball Tournament, the nation's oldest such tourney, by defeating Maryland-Eastern Shore 99-76. This is the only national basketball championship by any college or university in NM, by the way.

1978. Ben Abruzzo, Maxie Anderson and Larry Newman piloted the first balloon to cross the Atlantic Ocean, and were awarded the Congressional Gold Medal for their accomplishment.

1969-70. Hobbs High Eagles Boys Varsity basketball team set a national record for average points per game at 114.6, a record that stood until broken by a Houston High School team last season...that's 40 years.

1959. Ruidoso Downs Race Track establishes the annual All American futurity race, the fastest and richest race for American Quarter Horses racehorses. Also noted is the world speed record for racehorses was set in this race by No Secrets Here in 2006.

1983-90. The Clayton High Yellowjackets Girls Varsity basketball team won eight consecutive State championships. Eldorado High Eagles Girls Varsity basketball team won a total of 14 State championships from 1975-97.

1957-2010. Artesia High Bulldogs Boys Varsity football team won a total of 27 State championships.

Now that we've got the most important sports stories since statehood out of the way, you know the top political stories of the past 100 years can't be far behind. We'll let the fever over the sports stories subside before we go there.

SUSANA'S GRADES

On that KOB-TV viewer poll that gave Governor Susana below average grades for her performance on the key issues of the day and which we blogged about Thursday, a reader writes:

My understanding is that she received a lot of of "A's" as well as a lot of "F's." That gave her an average of C or C- on the issues polled. Politically motivated? She deserves few F's from anyone who is truly objective and even the Dems I hang out with gave her only a couple of D's. I suspect organized labor orchestrated the voting on the left. Hey, remember that if you have one foot on a block of ice and the other on a red hot stove, on average, you are very comfortable.

Could be. But leaving aside the grade she deserves or whether the poll was pushed by particular interest groups, we would think most observers would agree that little substantial legislation reached her desk during her first year.

BUILD WHAT?

We've argued for a large capital outlay bill from this Legislature to get the construction industry
back to work. That drew this reader inquiry:

Joe, you wrote, "The collapse of the housing and construction industries is a large part of the problem."But there is no point in building more houses when there is no one buying the ones that exist because no one has jobs. What kind of new construction do you have in mind?

The construction we have in mind includes roads, bridges, improvements to state buildings, public schools and the like. The housing problem the reader points out would not be helped directly by state capital outlay funds.

R TAKEOVER?

We're not so sure we agree with Inside the Capitol columnist Jay Miller about this, but it did catch our eye:

A change of one more seat from Democrat to Republican will put the House under GOP control. The redistricting map approved by a judge last week makes that possibility look very likely.

If New Mexico stays strong for Obama and we get the usual higher turnout for a presidential year, the Dems, in our view, should be able to hang on to control of the state House. But they are going to court over the redistricting plan approved by a district court judge, so maybe they agree with Jay that the situation is more dire for them than we suppose.

MEDIA BEAT

A reader informs:

The ABQ Journal is closing its downtown bureau. Lots and lots of consolidation going on at the Journal these days.

We're told there are no layoffs associated with the closure of the longtime downtown newspaper office on Silver SW, but it is a sign of the media times.

STAFFING UP

ABQ GOP congressional candidate Dan Lewis gets some serious experience as he signs Joyce Pullen as his field representative. Pullen, 73, served as office field manager for many years for former GOP Senator Pete Domenici. She recently left the office of ABQ GOP Mayor Berry where she served as a constituent services staffer. Lewis says Pullen will be coordinating volunteers and coalitions and organizing for the County Conventions. Lewis has also hired professional consulting firms out of DC--including the well-known Tarrance Group--to handle his campaign. Also running for the GOP nomination is former ABQ GOP State Rep. Janice Arnold Jones and retired Army Seargent Gary Smith.

Did we mention that another political veteran who was recently working for Mayor Berry is back in the political world? In case we didn't, Tito Madrid is now on board the campaign of GOP US Senate candidate Heather Wilson. It's familiar territory for Tito who worked the field for Heather when she was the ABQ US Rep. He is also known as a political pragmatist who works with all comers. That can't hurt.

THE BOTTOM LINES

From Jimmy Fallon:

Last night President Obama took Michelle out to a steak restaurant for her birthday, marking it the first time in months the word 'Obama' and 'well-done' appeared in the same sentence

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Only "C" Grades For Susana? We Explain, Plus: Hollywood Bashing Recedes, Natural Gas Price Plunge, Heinrich's Money Totals & Our Indian Country Visit

2012-01-19T00:59:00.002-07:00

Governor Martinez may score high on the likability charts but that doesn't mean the public is going to let their feelings substitute for results. For example, a KOB-TV news poll conducted on its website and being released this week gives Martinez a barely passable grade of C- when it comes to job creation.

Not that it's the sole chore of the state's governor to "create jobs" and it's not as though Martinez's administration has done nothing. But jobs remain scarce. The Guv points to a decreasing unemployment rate but does not point out that joblessness is decreasing largely because the work force has not been growing, not that we are adding gobs of jobs. The public at large and business owners feel the stagnation. Many people have dropped off the radar and are no longer counted as unemployed or as looking for work.

The 600 call center jobs Lowe's announced for ABQ recently sound good on the surface, but we've lost thousands of such jobs during this recession/Depression. The Union Pacific Railroad project in the south as well as the Spaceport will add hundreds of good-paying jobs in the years ahead but we've lost over 50,000 jobs. It will be a long time digging out of this hole.

The collapse of the housing and construction industries is a large part of the problem. Martinez and the Legislature could come with a giant capital outlay bill on the order of $400 or $500 million to start putting folks in construction and design back to work. But Santa Fe (including a reticent Legislature) seems more prone to lip service than concrete action. More resolve and more results will be needed before the public awards this Governor a job creation grade she can brag about--and run for re-election on.

That TV news poll also gave the Guv a pretty low grade on fighting corruption considering she is is a former district attorney who made corruption a banner issue in her 2o10 campaign. Viewers gave her only a C in the corruption fighting category. The poll is far from scientific but it does come on the heels of that down and dirty lease deal for the Downs at ABQ. Did that ethical swamp help sink her corruption grade?

And on education--another banner issue for the Guv--she is awarded another C-. To improve that grade, She and education secretary Skandera may have to take night school lessons on how to handle the Legislature.

(By the way, over the decades we have found these nonscientific surveys by the state's TV stations to be quite similar to later scientific polling results. Politicians ignore them at their peril. In this case Martinez did not, fielding questions about the results and offering pushback, rather than attacking the survey's methods).

BACKING OFF THE BASHING

The administration spent a good part of its first year bashing Hollywood and the film industry, but the biting of the hand that feeds you has finally ceased and Governor Martinez, as she did with the Spaceport, seems to be lightening up. Maybe it's getting results. after concerns it would go elsewhere, it was announced that the probable blockbuster--"The Lone Ranger"--will film in New Mexico. The production is estimated at $200 million. Now that's the kind of cash that is going to juice up the balance sheets of a lot of locals. And it should keep the Hollywood bashers sidelined for sometime. The state last year did scale back the amount of rebates to the industry, but Martinez and company have since been employing softer talk in referencing the movie biz and saying there will be no efforts to reduce state support further.

The film industry is but one component of the new and improved economy we hope to see for New Mexico's next generation, The others include the Spaceport, maintaining a strong federal jobs base, robust tourism, a productive energy industry, building out New Mexico with a large capital outlay bill and a constitutional amendment to provide funding for education and social programs for children from birth to five years old. That last one is the way we can finally end the cycle of wasted generations and ensure we have a work force that can fill the jobs in the new economy. Speaking of which...

COUNTING KIDS

How are the kids doing? So asks New Mexico Voices for Children and then answers with a 52 page report. They say:

The continuing Great Recession has thrown more of New Mexico’s children and families into poverty. This annual report looks at the well-being of the state’s children with some data presented by county and school district.

And a reader writes:

Joe, I have some evidence to back your call for the constitutional amendment to support education and social programs for kids. The Foundation for Child Development is releasing a report that shows that New Mexico is dead last in the country for overall child well-being. This is because of the direct relationship the report finds between higher state taxes, larger investments in key public programs and higher child well-being. New Mexico isn’t making the cut on any of those fronts.

GUV '14
Bregman
Given the millions it takes to run for Governor, some Democrats are going to have to start making some noise soon about the 2014 race. One of our Senior Alligators 0f the Dem variety reports at least one is:

At the Roundhouse Tuesday attorney Sam Bregman looked more like a candidate running for Governor than a "casual" opening day onlooker. His handshake resembled (former Governor) Bruce King's.

Several people asked him to run for Governor and he nodded. At the Democratic legislative dinner Tuesday night, many people were dropping names for Governor. I think Democrats are looking forward to the next Governor's race.

Bregman, a former ABQ city councilor, recently ran and narrowly lost a bid for the Dem Party state chairmanship. He has told friends he is looking at the Dem race for Guv.

MOVING UP
Johnson
Insiders report that new Democratic Bernalillo County Commission Chairman Art De La Cruz has ousted Democratic Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham from the powerful city-county water authority board and replaced her with Republican Commissioner Wayne Johnson. Johnson voted recently to bump Commission Chair Maggie Hart-Stebbins and replace her with De La Cruz. Of course, Johnson getting named by De La Cruz to the water board has nothing to do with his chair vote. I mean, really, banish the thought.

And now Alligator analysis of what is going on within the water board and Commissioner De La Cruz's role:

De La Cruz and water board executive director Mark Sanchez, a veteran of La Politica, want to further their control of the water authority. Apparently, questions being raised about Sanchez's running of the utility are not appreciated. The City of Albuquerque appointees on the Authority Board are considered pushovers, and Sanchez, et. al. want to extend utility water to Johnson's East Mountain areas and to De La Cruz's South Valley areas by eating up the small mutual domestics surrounding Albuquerque.This would enhance the power of the utility.

My, oh, my. Power grabs over water? In New Mexico? Shocking!

NOT A GAS

Reader John Gniady wants to update us on the continuing crash in natural gas prices, a resource NM relies on to fill its treasury with royalties:

This is not good news for the 30 day legislative session just getting underway. We had another 47 cent decline Tuesday and if it stays there it means another $50 million in state royalties disappear.

Natural gas is now trading at around $2.50. The liquefied stuff goes for more but it is also declining. Energy expert Gerges Scott with DW Turner says for every one dollar decline in the natural gas price, the state treasury suffers a revenue loss of about $100 million. Will new state revenue projections trim that $250 million surplus that is projected for the budget year that starts July 1st? If they are, the entire tenor of this legislative session will change abruptly.

MONEY WATCH
Rep. Heinrich
The money reports for the federal candidates for the last quarter of 2010 won't be filed until January 31 (not mid-January as we mistakenly blogged recently) but they are starting to leak out. For ABQ Dem Congressman and US Senate hopeful Martin Heinrich the news is good.

Although he did not match the $650,000 he raised in the 2010 third quarter, he did come with a hefty $483,000. That gives him a bulging cash on hand total of nearly $1.4 million. He has raised nearly $2 million since the start of his Senate campaign. This makes Heinrich the obvious front-runner over State Auditor Hector Balderas, his lone primary foe. Hector reported $465,000 in cash at the end of September. The pressure on him to raise more funds is enormous. His grassroots appeal lessens that pressure, but only some. A fully contested primary for an open United States Senate seat means intensive and expensive TV ads. Heinrich now has his TV money banked.

REPLACING PICRAUX

We get this from political consultant Sterling Fluharty:

Both Christine Trujillo and I announced on Facebook our campaigns for the Democratic nomination for the state House seat held by Rep. Danice Picraux.

We earlier noted the entrance of labor leader Trujillo into the race for the mid-NE Height seat held by Rep. Picraux who this month announced her retirement. We have not yet seen any R's candidates for the Dem leaning district. Fluharty, 34, runs Southwest Political Services. He says:

One of my strengths is having a lot of different skills. I am a trained historian. I have taught college. I have been an administrator at a high school. I have worked in libraries and archives.

INDIAN COUNTRY
Prez Chino & Blogger
We headed to the Mescalero Apache Reservation near Ruidoso last week for a ceremony that you can't find just anywhere--the swearing in of a new tribal president. That president is Fredrick Chino, Sr. who won election in November.

The event drew Indian leaders from across the region--including Navajo President Ben Shelly. Southern GOP Congressman Steve Pearce keynoted the event. State Senate President Pro Tem Tim Jennings was also on hand to help induct Chino. The new tribal leader told me young Mescaleros are a chief concern. Their suicide rate remains high and there are also problems with domestic violence and alcoholism.

A number of poignant letters written by 11 and 12 year olds from the Mescalero schools addressed these issues and were read aloud at the inauguration. Later, when we talked with the new president, he said he not about to sweep long-standing problems under the rug. He pointed to the student letters stuffed in his back pocket and told me, "I've got my work orders."

THE BOTTOM LINES

Ruidoso remains a premier tourist destination--especially for nearby Texans. When we grew extra hungry after the three hour Mescalero inauguration we stopped at the Landlocked Restaurant. It is slow season now and our party of two were the sole customers. With a name like Landlocked you would think the salmon sandwich would be the last thing to order. But order a pair of them we did and without regret.

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The Power Shall Soon Pass; Speaker Lujan's Wrenching Personal Drama Revealed; Succession Plotted, Plus: Senate Graveyard Again Awaits Guv's Dreams

2012-01-18T00:54:00.037-07:00

Speaker Lujan (ABQ Journal)
The wrenching personal drama of state House Speaker Ben Lujan, one of New Mexico's most storied political figures, pushed aside the usual opening day headlines of a 30 day legislative session and cast a pall over the capitol, sparked respectful but intense rounds of speculation over who would replace him and pushed aside--for the moment--the agenda of the Republican Governor that Democrat Lujan has so come to dread.

Most of the politicians gathered to hear Lujan's opening remarks on the first day of the 2012 session knew that he was not well--only hours before this blog broke the news that his health was an issue not to be ignored--but still there were audible gasps when he dropped the bombshell and announced that he was afflicted with advanced lung cancer and would not seek re-election. (Lujan video here.)

Both men and women dabbed at tears as Lujan--tethered to oxygen with the tell-tale transparent tubing pushing against his nostrils--delivered a five minute speech that transitioned from the medical to the political and back again. His son, Ben Ray Lujan, now a northern New Mexico congressman, watched it and felt it as only a son could watch a father. And at his desk, Rep. Ken Martinez of Grants, now the heir apparent to the New Mexican speakership, listened intently and stared downward, perhaps fully realizing for the first time the impact this moment would have on his life.

For having lung cancer, the speaker, 76, spoke strongly. It reminded us of how former Congressman and Governor Bill Richardson adopted the campaign slogan, "Fighter for the North," but Tuesday at mid-day in Santa Fe it was the real deal. The fight for political life was cast aside, as the fight for life itself moved starkly to the front and center.

KEEPING A SECRET

The most shocking revelation from Lujan's speech came when he revealed that he had been undergoing cancer treatment since November 2009. What? And the news never made it to the public? Who says you can't keep a secret in the Internet age. It wasn't until we posted quotes from our Senior Alligators Tuesday at 1 a.m. that the story--after better than two years under wraps--began to seep to the surface. The ABQ Journal came at 7:30 in the morning with a report that mirrored our speculation.

WHO IS NEXT?
Rep. Martinez
As for speculation, the City Different was rife with it. And why not? Openness and transparency eventually carry the day in a democracy. So the Wall-Leaners, Alligators and other assorted political creatures quietly murmured their crystal ball forecasts as they nursed their favorite beverages at Capitol watering holes or pressed to their ears their always present cell phones.

The nearly unanimous opinion? State Rep. Ken Martinez, an attorney, will succeed Lujan, keeping the speaker's gavel in the Hispanic column and in the north (even if some don't consider Grants to be truly northern country).

The fly in the posole could be a Republican take over of the House in November. The R's only need a couple of new members to do the deed in the 70 member chamber. If they pull off the upset there could be a contest for the speaker's chair between House Minority Leader Tom Taylor of Farmington and House Minority Whip Don Bratton of Lea County.

But most of the political intelligentsia are betting the Dems continue to control the House, even as they have lost much of the agenda to the Republican Governor. She's been able to cobble together assorted coalitions in the narrowly divided chamber to pass such conservative items as a repeal of driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants, only to see them die in the Senate.

If Lujan finishes out his last year in office, the election for speaker would come in January 2013 and would perhaps include some new Democratic members elected in the November election. Some analysts thought that could perhaps hamper Martinez's vote gathering efforts. But Lujan and his allies have been in Kenny's corner since he tried an ill-fated coup of Lujan in December 2006. Our blog leading up to that event captured the moment:

The spirited behind the scenes battle between Lujan and Martinez has been fascinating to behold. There is Lujan, 70, a Santa Fe native who started his career as a working man and rose to hold power at the upper reaches of government without benefit of a college degree; a man who scraped and fought to advance not only himself but his son who is now a member of the powerful Public Regulation Commission (PRC).

And then there's Martinez, 49, of Grants, NM who is from a bloodline associated with the state's Spanish aristocracy; himself the son of a House Speaker; a graduate of Notre Dame and an accomplished trial lawyer; a man seemingly destined for leadership since boyhood.

Of course, Martinez is now five years older and presumably wiser. He will not say right now whether he will seek to succeed Lujan but if he said he wasn't, the shock would be almost as great as Lujan's withdrawal announcement. By the way, Lujan has made the peace with Kenny and insiders say he is strongly backing him as his replacement.

THE SPEAKER'S SEAT

And what of Carl Trujillo, the upstart candidate who nearly toppled the Speaker in the Dem primary in 2010? Will he now be in line for the Speaker's Santa Fe area House seat? He's running again, but you have to think the Lujan machine will try to find an alternate candidate. They just couldn't stomach seeing Trujillo take the prize. The Speaker himself signaled as much when he said he was hurt by the speculation that he was lazy in 2010. He said he was suffering the effects of his cancer and it prevented him from full-fledged campaigning.

THE GOVERNOR

And then there's the Governor, hardly an afterthought in the world of La Politica on any given day, but Tuesday her message was drowned out somewhat by the breaking news and humanity of the moment. Before delivering the traditional state of the state address, Martinez gave the speaker and her avowed political foe a warm hug and declared that the state was "pulling for him."

In spite of a serviceable speech (full text here.) and some kinder thoughts for the Legislature in general, the Republican Governor's agenda seems doomed to languish once again in the limbo of the state senate. There, our Alligators report, the bill to hold back third graders with reading problems will sink. And so will for the third time the move to repeal driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants. Her proposal to eliminate the gross receipts tax on businesses grossing less than $50,000 a year shows no signs of early momentum and seems headed for that crowded Senate graveyard. (Is Senator John Arthur "Dr. No" Smith the caretaker there?)

What's a Governor to do? She can nibble around the edges, one supposes, and get legislative agreement on a state budget which is the main purpose of the session. And she can still wow us by proposing passage of a large capital outlay bill that would create real jobs. Will she?

We sense that Speaker Lujan gave us all the earth-shaking we're going to see in this legislative session, but that doesn't mean that Santa Fe can't deliver a successful minimalist session that keeps the lights on.

HISTORY LESSON

Native New Mexican and former TV news reporter Rodger Beimer reports from his retirement perch:

In the last 50 years--half of New Mexico’s statehood--there have been 9 Speakers of the House and 11 governors. And there's never been a better vote counter than Ben Lujan…

And Susana may have been in an office for over a year now, but the honeymoon goes on with some of our readers:

The spotlight was on Governor Susana Tuesday and she delivered her vision for New Mexico and parameters for the session! Her remarks were interspersed with humor, poignancy, seriousness of purpose, and conciliation to others of differing views. Few governors have done better! Bravo!

We give the bottom lines to former Governor Big Bill who made history by forging a deep alliance with Speaker Ben Lujan and pushed through a mountain of legislation--including controversial tax cuts--during Bill's first Guv term from 2003 to 2007:

There is no better legislator or representative of the people than Speaker Ben Lujan. He is also a formidable fighter who will battle this illness with ferocity and incredible grace. With his departure from politics an era of legislative accomplishment in tax cuts, education, jobs, transportation and healthcare will never be equaled and will be a shining example of the Speaker’s legacy to New Mexicans. He is a true giant of New Mexico politics.

Like him or not, Ben Lujan has lived a life that mattered and long ago earned a couple of chapters in our never-ending book of La Politica. Now his final chapter has begun.

Reporting to you from Santa Fe and Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

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Session 2012: Up Close & Personal With The Top Sources: Speaker's Health, Power Struggles, The Gov & More; Santa Fe Under The Scope On Opening Day

2012-01-17T00:54:00.023-07:00

Santa Fe drama--House Speaker Ben Lujan announced during the noon hour at the opening session of the Legislature that he has stage 4 lung cancer and will not seek re-election to the chamber. He said he has been dealing with the cancer privately for several years.
He was speaker for 12 years, the second longest run in the position in state history
Lujan indicates he will be around for this 30 day session. House Majority Leader Ken Martinez is the favorite to replace Lujan in the Dem-controlled House.

We've called upon our top sources in New Mexican politics--the Senior Alligators, the Wall-Leaners, the Hangers-On, the Wanna-Be's and more--to give you an exclusive inside perspective on what is really happening as the 2012 New Mexico legislative session convenes for 30 days in Santa Fe today. It's titillating and scintillating info so let's get right into it:

We have been told Speaker Ben Lujan has been ill. Since last January there have been rumors about the Speaker's health, and his participation in interim committees has fueled those rumors. Then Speaker did not hold his annual holiday fundraiser in December, which is put together by the lobbyist heavy weights. He has promised retirement to get votes.

The Speaker did not take the lead in the recent legislative redistricting trial despite Judge Hall's ruling that it was the Speaker's directives to maintain northern legislative seats that was ultimately the key flaw in the Democrats' case. The successful Republican strategy at trial was to challenge Speaker Lujan's motivations in passing the House plan.

THE SUCCESSION

If Lujan goes from the Speaker's chair after more than a decade of wielding the gavel who takes the second most powerful position in the New Mexican government? To the Senior Alligators;

If the House stays Democratic after the November election, Rep. Ken Martinez of Grants is Speaker Lujan's designated successor. The mantle will get passed down to Martinez despite his past attempt to defeat the Speaker. Since then Martinez has been duly chastised and obedient to the Speaker. Lujan really has no other choice but Martinez in order to keep power within the historic Santa Fe circle. Although Martinez is from Grants, his father--the late Walter Martinez-- was the former Speaker and a mentor to former Speaker Raymond Sanchez as well as Speaker Lujan. So Martinez is as close to a Santa Fe insider as there is to choose from.

House Democrats don't like to rock the boat or shake things up like they do in the Senate. House Dems are poised to go along with a succession plan that keeps the Speaker's chair in the posession of the North. That's the way it has been going all the way back to the 1970's when Ken's dad was Speaker.

THE R'S PLOT

But what if the Republicans pick up the handful of House seats they need to become a majority and do so for the first time in decades. That scenario is also being gamed out by our expert Wall-Leaners:

There is a great deal of talk about Republicans taking over the House after the House Democrats lost big in the 2012 elections, and now in court after redistricting. The Republicans have been on a huge roll for two years in the House, and there is now a lot of speculation about who would be the Republican Speaker and chairmen of the major committees. Rep. Don Bratton (Lea County) is thought most likely as a Republican speaker.

While Democrats are worried about moving their offices to the capitol annex, they are also counting on the Obama team to hold on to the House by a vote or two. Either way the power is now moving entirely to the Senate, and at least for the remainder of Governor Martinez's term the House will be mostly an afterthought. The Senate is highly unlikely to go Republican in November. There, Senators often exercise their power in a bipartisan way to effectively check and balance both the House and Governor.

Unless she is re-elected and wants to wait again until the 2016 election, Susana will not likely make any more progress with the Senate than she has had so far.

THE 2012 SESSION

Now expert analysis from the halls of the Roundhouse with those deep on the inside on how this session can be expected to play out:

The session will be almost entirely about the coming campaigns despite the pressing issues you have raised in your blog. Susana has made clear she wants to replace Dem legislators . She will be told to set up targeted Dems for bad votes difficult to defend in November. Her political handlers can look forward to making a lot of money working to capture the 3 or 4 votes needed to take over the House. The House is merely in a survival mode getting by vote by vote, and day by day. With margins slim, every committee vote becomes a problem unless every member is present.

[Joe, by the way and as a tidbit--The seemingly bizarre daily schedule of the September special session--the hours the House was on the floor and the Republican complaints of nothing going on--were often driven by the fact that Rep. Richard Vigil, a bus contractor, needed to be driving his bus twice a day every weekday. With every vote needed, the floor sessions were scheduled around Richard's daily absences. An example of what happens when the margin between the two parties is only one.}

Expect a session filled with automated telephone calls into members' districts, and a strategic political blitz coming from the Fifth Floor. (The "Fifth Floor" is a reference to Susana's powerful political consultant Jay McCleskey). But hot button legislation and posturing will also deepen the Susana fatigue and animosity which has set in with Dems and Repubs alike. Despite Susana's new overtures to work with legislators, it is probably too little and too late for second chance to make a good first impression, and the sincerity of the new overtures will remain suspect.

Susana has made clear she wants Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez out of her way, and his Senate allies will stop her agenda there because the House can't. With Senators up for election only every four years, and with new districts, the Senate will be focused on those elections.

SANTA FE BURN OUT

Now we get the current zeitgeist from the Hangers-on in the state's capital city as the power making and power playing commence:

The fact that the legislators were in session almost three months of the past year, and just came off the special session, there is a lot of Santa Fe burned out. The fact that there is very little new or anything exciting coming from the Governor contributes to a new Santa Fe malaise. For all his many faults former Governor Richardson has left a huge leadership vacuum in the capitol, which Susana and her team have not come close to filling. Legislators were unaccustomed to setting the agenda for eight years while Richardson was at the helm, and so now nobody is leading or remembers how.

THE WAY IT WORKS

Our Santa Fe Alligators now details for you how power in this government is being divided:

The ruling coalition of Dems and R's working together in the Senate are for the most part governing this state. The redistricting trial is very good example of where things stand. The Senate Dems, R's and the Governor coming together and working out a compromise for a Senate redistricting plan is a good example of the bipartisanship required for any progress in a divided government in the next three years. It is also a good example of how the House is likely to be sacrificed in the process.

That Senate coalition will be tested occasionally on bills repealing driver's licenses for illegals and establishing voter I.D. . But mature experience and leadership are present with the likes of Senators Jennings, Smith, Sanchez, Ingle and others. They can lead Susana along if she wants to accomplish anything in her remaining three years.

MY ALLIGATORS AND ME

Even more exclusive, must-read analysis from New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan and its corp of Senior Alligators:

In a 30 day session the Governor exclusively controls the policy agenda and everything but appropriations. There hasn't been anything resembling a bold agenda announced from the Governor yet, and she did not engage much through the interim committees to develop an agenda over the past year. You have proposed a better explained agenda in your own blog so hopefully the Governor is reading and taking notes on your ideas.

With less than a week before the 2012 opening it is probably too late for anything resembling the promised boldness we heard during the 2010 campaign, and this administration is still on training wheels when it comes to governing.

And there you have it. Quite the breathtaking wrap up from the Gators and more to come in the weeks ahead. Certainly we have not heard the last of news broken here today about the Speaker's health status--whatever it is.

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2012 Legislative Session Gamed Out As Lawmakers Prep For Tuesday Opener, And: What Are The Top 5 Sports Stories Since Statehood?

2012-01-16T00:54:00.021-07:00

It's Martin Luther King Day and just about everything is shut down in observance of the holiday, but it's a working day for many of New Mexico's 112 legislators. They are scurrying to make final arrangements for the 30 day legislative session that kicks off tomorrow at the storied Roundhouse in Santa Fe.

(New Mexican preview here, ABQ Journal preview (subscription) here and the AP preview here.)

There's a little more money for lawmakers to divvy up than in most recent sessions but not much (around $250 million). The budget battle since Gov. Martinez took power has been more like a sparring than a boxing match between her and the Dem-controlled Legislature. There will be mostly soft punches thrown again between the two as they hammer out what appears to be pretty like-minded budgets, says this AP analysis:

Lawmakers and Martinez will work out a budget deal without too much difficulty. But the governor's tax cuts face problems because many Democrats want to use available revenues to shore up programs that were cut when the state recently faced budget shortfalls. Modest tax relief for veterans could have the best chance of success. One option for lawmakers is to scale back existing tax breaks and use the money to offer new economic development incentives sought by the governor.

It may be tame going when it comes to hammering out a budget for the fiscal year that begins July 1 but it could get wild again when Gov. Martinez tries for the third time to push through a measure to repeal the law that allows an undocumented immigrant to get a state driver's license. Again, the AP analysis:

The governor's license proposal should pass the House, as it did last year, but it will be a close vote in the Senate if the measure makes it that far. The governor's measure failed in the Senate last year when only two Democrats joined Republicans in support of the legislation. But election-year pressures on lawmakers could improve the governor's chances of picking up Democratic support.

The wire service take is tinged with a bit more optimism than other observers who see Martinez getting her third strike on her repeal effort.

STILL A HOT BUTTON

Let's flash back to the 2010 NM GOP Guv nomination battle because it is still relevant today. Remember when Susana Martinez busted foe Allen Weh for being soft on illegal immigration and his polling numbers began to collapse? Well, immigration is still a hot button issue in a very conservative Republican Party. From the national stage:

Mitt Romney plans to hammer Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry on immigration in a bid to win over conservative voters in South Carolina, where the GOP front-runner has a narrow lead in polls...Appeals on immigration could be a winning formula in South Carolina, where the Legislature earlier this year passed a strict anti-illegal immigration law modeled on Arizona’s measure, which the Justice Department has sought to block.

An operating principle for Martinez and her pollsters ever since she assumed office is that the R's can take over the state House this year by using the driver's license repeal--the ultimate wedge issue--as the stake through Democratic hearts that go against her. But the R's are not taking back the Senate so she is still going to be confronted with divided government--no matter what happens with the House elections--for the rest of her term.

For not a few New Mexicans the Martinez-Legislature gridlock has been welcome. They don't want state government to do much of anything. Others see lost opportunity and a state that continues to founder.

THE SPORTS BEAT
Donisthorpe
He's not only a political junkie, he's a sports junkie. So it was no surprise to see Bruce Donisthorpe's come with his five top sports stories of the first 100 years of our statehood. See if you agree with him:

1. 1970, New Mexico State Aggies Men's Basketball team advances to NCAA Final Four in College Park Maryland, losing to -- you guessed it -- UCLA in the semifinals. NMSU won their ticket to the event by defeating Drake in the Midwest Regionals.

2. 1966 completion of construction and dedication of "The Pit" at the University of New Mexico. One of Sports Illustrated's Top 20 National Sports Venues of the 20th Century!

3. 1971 establishment of the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta, our State's top tourist event which features several balloon competitions and exhibitions.

4. 1983 NCAA Final Four at The Pit in Albuquerque. North Carolina State upsets Houston in the championship game.

5. Unser family dominance of the Indy 500 events throughout the 1970s and beyond.

Republican Donisthorpe is a veteran federal lobbyist who is a former staffer to GOP Gov. Garrey Carruthers and GOP Congressman Joe Skeen. Bruce is also the son of former Farmington area State Senator Christine Donisthorpe, another student of New Mexico history. Wonder if she helped out with that sports list?

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Friday Clippings From Our Newsroom Floor: Tax Talk, Energy Prices, ABQ Housing Bear And Plunging Tourism, Plus: What's An Alligator, Anyway?

2012-01-13T00:39:00.000-07:00

Let's start our clippings session with this one sent in from Santa Fe:

A wall-leaner comments on our views on the Guv's proposal to nix the state gross receipts tax for small businesses that pay less than $200 month in tax:

You are absolutely correct. The state's gross receipts tax (GRT) is a major impediment to business growth. However, the issue is much bigger. Local retail business cannot compete with out-of- state and international Internet sellers who pay no GRT, no local property taxes, no state or federal income tax, no corporate tax, do not hire local people and they are reaping billions from our local economies. We should eliminate GRT and find other tax resources for government spending.

The idea of subjecting all Internet sales to state gross receipts tax has been floated a number of times but gone nowhere. Gov. Martinez has said she will not approve any tax increases of any kind during her four year term.

IN THE CELLAR

The state is reaping royalty benefits from high oil prices. They are around $100 a barrel, but natural gas prices are at a ten year low, depriving New Mexico of another energy bull market that would fill state tax coffers:

Natural gas is cheaper this winter than it's been in a decade. Prices have dropped by more than 10 percent in the past week, including a plunge of almost 6 percent on Wednesday, as mild temperatures cut into heating demand and a production boom pumps up supplies.

The state says it pulls in about $4 million more for every $1 increase in the oil price, but gets $100 million more for every $1 boost in natural gas prices.

THE ABQ BEAR

The bear market in ABQ real estate means dramatically lower housing prices and in turn lower property taxes. That is cramping the city of ABQ. The bond issues to be put before voters next year will total just $110 million, down from $164 million that made the ballot last year.

These bonds are used to repair streets and such and with ABQ an aging city requiring more fixing up, this is concerning news. What will reverse it? Bringing good-paying jobs into the city would restore demand for housing and bump up its value, along with it property taxes that back the bonds.

Mayor Berry says part of the problem is the city siphoning money away from the capital budget for the general budget, but there's no denying that plummeting housing values are an anomaly in post-WWII ABQ and present policy makers with tough choices.

MISSING VISITORS

The WSJ this week took on the subject of New Mexico's collapsing tourism market:

Overnight tourist trips in New Mexico have dropped by nearly 10% in the past three years, and spending on everything from souvenir magnets to turquoise jewelry fell by hundreds of millions of dollars. When state tourism officials convened focus groups in Chicago, Houston and Los Angeles to ask prospective travelers about their perceptions of New Mexico, the same depressing descriptions kept cropping up: "Arid." "Barren." "Dull."

Shortly after that article hit the state announced it has picked a Texas firm to come up with some new ideas to advertise the state.

Tourism Secretary Monique Jacobson hopes to rebrand the state and make it more attractive to visitors, but we continue to pound the table over the ad budget to promote whatever new theme we come up with. At $2.5 million we are low. (And can't we deal in a New Mexico company or two to help out?)

Since statehood, tourism has been a prime driver for economic development. That is not the case for most other states and why it is misleading for policy makers to assert we can't step it up. And don't worry about being overrun with tourists. Have you seen Santa Fe lately? You can go bowling on the Plaza and not hit anyone.

Tourism doesn't provide that many high-paying jobs, but it does give thousands of working class New Mexicans a regular paycheck. We can't put out an extra couple of million to promote our attractions and boost their chances of staying employed? Come on, Santa Fe. This is low-lying fruit. Pick it up.

WHAT IS AN ALLIGATOR?

A new reader writes:

Dear Joe, I just started reading your blog today and need to know what you are referring to when you mention alligators. Thanks, Christy.

Thanks for tuning in, Christy. And the answer is:

Alligators are what I call my anonymous (and very well-informed) political sources. We find it an an apt description for the rough and tumble world of La Politica. An Alligator is someone steeped in New Mexico politics and who has a demonstrated track record of providing us accurate info on the stories that you can't get anywhere else.

We've been in this space since 2003--and covering politics in general for eons. We're now playing to a new generation of readers, Christy among them. We welcome them aboard in this new year--and maybe some fresh-faced Alligators as well.

Thanks for being with us this week.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan

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Santa Fe Session Nears; We Chime In With A Blog Agenda, Plus: More On Susana & Compromise, Also: Team Obama Sets Up NM Shop

2012-01-12T00:58:00.005-07:00

As the 30 day session of the New Mexico Legislature prepares to kick off Tuesday its time for another installment of "If We Ruled The World." Or in this case, what we would have the 112 solons (and one Guv) do when they saddle up in Santa Fe.

--Job one is a monster capital outlay bill. News that our construction industry ranks dead last in the USA should rally lawmakers to start pouring the concrete. The slight economic recovery means there will be more money available this session. Combine that with some of the $400 million in capital outlay that is stuck in the bureaucracy and not being spent and you could start some robust economic activity around here while improving the state. What is a "monster" bill? That would be north of $400 million. Will we get even half of that from overly cautious lawmakers who are all comfortably employed, unlike the thousands of construction workers and others impaled by the recession/Depression?

--Agree to limit debate on the Guv's bill calling for the repeal of the law that allows undocumented workers to get driver's licenses. Despite some movement, it is headed for failure again. Why gum up the works with it? Give it half a day and move on.

--Do pass the Guv's proposal to eliminate the gross receipts tax for small businesses that pay less than $200 a month in GRT. Even if this isn't a jobs starter, it does make the little guys more competitive. That could keep them around longer, improving their chances of becoming big guys and adding jobs.

--Get on with the generational reform the state is crying out for by passing the Constitutional Amendment that would draw limited funds from the state Permanent Fund for educational and social programs for children from birth to five years old. The measure is not a raid and would have to be approved by the public. Our sorry social state of affairs with stubborn poverty, lousy graduation rates and the rest is caused by a deadly cycle of ignorance. Here's a chance to break it. Let the public vote.

--Did you see that line a couple of months ago snaking out from the NM Expo grounds? They were lined up for an offer of free dental care. How about getting a dental school started at the University of New Mexico this session?

--Give state workers on the low end of the salary scale that measly half-percent pay raise that is being proposed for all state workers. They will be most apt to turn around and spend it, putting some money--as little as it may be--back into the economy. Besides, three years of no pay raises is demoralizing. Showing a little love for the middle class state worker isn't going to break us.

--Back to the gross receipts tax. How about repealing some of the many unnecessary big industry exemptions from the tax to finance the elimination of the tax on the little guy?

Then there's eduction and Medicaid, but that's all for today. Ruling the world can wear you out.

JOBS WATCH

While we wait for a more robust private sector economy to take hold, what's wrong with adding some nice paying federal government jobs? Nothing. From DC:

Senators Jeff Bingaman and Tom Udall and Congressmen Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Luján are urging the Obama administration to open a regional Patent and Trademark Office in central New Mexico. Such a move could bring with it as many as 100 highly-skilled professional jobs. Last month, President Obama signed a bill into law that streamlines the process for granting patents. As part of that law, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office is required to open at least two regional offices to help address the backlog of 680,000 pending
patents.

That's the kind of stuff we need, but please, don't tell the Tea Party.

A COMPROMISE PLOT?

Susana's new use of the "C" word--compromise--is being closely watched. Reader Carlos Acosta emails:

Joe, You mentioned that Gov Martinez may be willing to compromise and work with the Dems this year. I'm in Florida for a week enjoying the warm weather and saw in the news that Gov Rick Scott actually had the same talking points in his state of the state address. Coincidence? Maybe or maybe not. I'm just wondering if the National Republican Governors Association is making all Republican Gov's say the same thing after getting slammed last year for driving a hard right agenda and their lack of compromise?

STEVE'S PLACE

Reader Charles Turner writes:

Joe, I am a daily reader and enjoy your blog. I however disagree with your piece Wednesday on Congressman Steve Pearce. If a child is adopted by a parent does that mean they are not family? Congressman Pearce has spent his life in New Mexico, he has made his living in our great state. He was born in Texas but has known New Mexico as home, as far as I am concerned he is a New Mexican.

We blogged that Pearce wrote in his recent newsletter that New Mexico has "always" been his home, even though he was born in Texas.

TEAM OBAMA

The Obama campaign is staffing up as the election season nears. Ray Sandoval will the top gun for the Prez in NM. He is a former attorney and, during the 2008 election, led field and voter registration efforts in Rio Rancho. Ray originally hails from Santa Fe and holds the title of state director for Obama.

Mahen Gunaratna will be the New Mexico Press Secretary for Organizing for America, the grassroots organization that helps elects Democrats up and down the ticket. He most recently served as Communications Director for Rep. Wilson, a freshman House member from South Florida. Before that he served as Press Secretary for Rep. Kendrick Meek.

Obama starts his New Mexico drive for re-election in pretty good shape, according to the latest polling.

SENATE BOUNDARIES

A deal is before the court over state Senate redistricting and this news from it is an eye catcher:

In southeastern New Mexico, Republican Sens. Rod Adair of Roswell and William Burt of Alamogordo end up in the same district.

"Lightning Rod" Adair against Burt in a Republican primary? We'd pay the price of a bag of popcorn to see that one. Adair, a demographer, has been around the Roundhouse since '97. Burt is an Alamogordo radio station owner who was appointed to the senate last year to fill the seat left vacant when Dianna Duran became secretary of state.

WHAT DID WAYNE GET?

Insiders say look for GOP Bernalillo County Commission Wayne Johnson to get a seat on the city-county water utility board. That comes after Johnson voted to support Dem Art De La Cruz for commission chair over incumbent chair and Dem Maggie Hart Stebbins. De La Cruz won the vote 3 to 2.

GOP Commissioner Micheal Wiener also voted for De La Cruz. We described him as a "gadfly," meaning he often goes his own course, but Michael says rather than gadfly he's a "common sense" moderate.

The definition of a gadfly is: "A person who upsets the status quo by posing upsetting or novel questions, or just being an irritant."

Maybe we got Michael mixed up with us?

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Speaker Lujan Foe Powers Ahead As State Awaits his Campaign Decision, Plus: A County Coup; Hart Stebbins Ousted, And: The Politics Of A Matanza

2012-01-11T00:54:00.016-07:00

Still no official word on whether powerful NM House Speaker Ben Lujan will run for another two year term this year. But no matter what, Carl Trujillo, the Los Alamos Labs worker who almost ousted Ben in the Dem primary two years ago is back and running hard. The latest fund-raising pitch from his campaign:

This time, we've got six months of campaigning time, and we're confident that we can win. We will have the same professional level of team on board as in 2010. We are currently in the process of launching our campaign officially -- developing the message and graphics, hiring staff and setting up our campaign office,and putting together our volunteer lists for our initial petition drive--and we expect a formal launch in mid-January.

Speaker Lujan has been coy about his re-election plans. He was nicked bdly by Trujillo who lost to Lujan by less than 90 votes. The rumor mill constantly swirls with different versions of what the Speaker will decide or has decided. All we can do now is wait for the man himself to tell us. It shouldn't be long.

Who would replace Lujan as Speaker in 2013, if he decides to retire? The insider betting line is still on Kenny Martinez of Grants, despite his ill-fated coup attempt of Lujan a number of years ago. Also making the tipsters sheets is House Education Committee Chairman Rick Miera, more of a long shot But hold on to your bandannas. What if the R's were to take over the House in the 2012 election? Would current House Minority Leader Tom Taylor automatically be picked to wield the Speaker's gavel? You tell us.

THE COUNTY COUP

What did GOP Bernalillo County Commissioner Wayne Johnson get for supporting Dem Commissioner Art De La Cruz for commission chairman Tuesday and in the process ousting Dem Maggie Hart-Stebbins? That was the question the Alligators were asking in the wake of the county coup.

It's no secret that De La Cruz was unhappy with Maggie. She pushed an ethics ordinance through and spearheaded the drive to dump controversial County Manager Thaddeus Lucero. De La Cruz is an old style Valley deal maker so it's no surprise that the Alligators were wondering about Johnson's movida with Art (Will Thaddeus now return to the county?)

Johnson was joined by De La Cruz and gadfly Republican Michael Wiener to take the prize. Michael was no surprise, but Johnson was.

As for Maggie, one of her supporters opined of the coup: "That's what you get for trying to bring county government into the 21st century."

Also of note, Hart Stebbins opposed a proposed West Side shopping center that is close to the heart of Art. We're just saying....

DANICE EXITING

Our insiders were on the cell phones Monday night saying that longtime ABQ mid-NE Heights Dem State Rep. Danice Picraux, a professional educator, is ending her two decade run at the Roundhouse and that Christine Trujillo, president of the American Federation of Teachers here, will seek the Dem nomination to replace her.

Friends say Picraux, 65, has had health issues and after 22 years at the Roundhouse is ready to spend more time with her grandchildren. She was once House Majority Whip and was first elected in 1990. The seat favors a Dem, but a strong Republican, my analysts say, could have an outside chance at the upset.

MEDIA MOVING

From State Corrections Secretary-designate Gregg Marcantel:

...Cristina Rodda (is) the new Public Information Director for the Corrections Department. She began...in late December. Ms. Rodda (has) seven years experience in television news as a reporter, anchor and producer. She spent two years at KOB in ABQ, and five years at KDBC in El Paso. She is a graduate of the University of Texas at El Paso...

These state jobs are still appealing to the media set. They pay decently and have good benefits.
The AP"s Tim Korte is another reporter who went to the "dark side" and joined the Martinez spin crew. But the ship jumping has been nothing like it was under former Guv Big Bill. He created new PIO positions and had enough of them--about two dozen- to start his own newspaper. Under Martinez, some of the PIO posts have been consolidated. There are now about 16 communications positions--still a bunch. The pay is in the $75,000 range.

And speaking of PIO's, Andy Lenderman, a onetime political reporter for the ABQ Journal who went to work for former Governor Anaya when he headed the state's office of Recovery and Investment, is now spinning for Bernalillo County. He replaces Breanna Anderson who took a PIO post with the City of ABQ.

WHERE'S HE FROM?

Steve Pearce must really want to be a native of New Mexico badly, Why else would the southern GOP Congressman come with this in a recent newsletter:

The 100 year anniversary of our great state is a very special time to celebrate the history of New Mexico. Personally, New Mexico has always been my home. I was raised in Hobbs, attended New Mexico public schools, graduated from New Mexico Universities, and have raised my family here in New Mexico. What has always been apparent to me is how heritage and culture not only surround our everyday interactions, but truly defines who we are.

Pearce was born in Lamesa, Texas August 24, 1947. He came to Hobbs when he was a little kid. but you would never know it,
would you?

PAULINE'S PERILS

A reader writes:

Hi Joe, Bookworks in the ABQ North Valley is having an event with former State Rep. and State Senator Pauline Eisenstadt for her new book, "A Woman in Both Houses," on Jan. 12 at 7 p.m. The book looks great. Pauline has lots of interesting NM political tidbits to share....

MATANZA POLITICS
Colóns Chicharrone paddle
An insider has the details on the politics behind the "Matanza Crisis" that struck the Valencia County Hispanic Chamber of Commerce when its annual pig roast was put on hold because of USDA rules:

The USDA has agreed to allow us to hold our annual matanza, after all. State Sen. Michael Sanchez tells us he pulled some favors. Of course, it didn't hurt that our story was on the front page of the ABQ Journal and made all five TV news outlets. For now, we're in a holding pattern as to whether we can have the matanza this year. Because we cancelled the January 28 date, it's too soon to pull off the event so we have chosen to have the matanza on the February 25.

Unfortunately, someone has already booked the Sheriff's Posse Fairgrounds in Belen for that Saturday. We are currently working with the organizer to see if he's willing to switch dates with us to allow us to hold the event...

Let's look on the bright side, we can't stand standing in the cold and munching on wind-blown chicharrones that chill out and dry in a flash from the frigid January air. The USDA pulled a boner by coming down on the matanza, but moving the event to a warmer month is doing all of us cold weather warriors a big favor. Putting those pigs in the ground on February 25 is just fine.

Heck, we'll even make sure native New Yorker and former NM Dem Party Chairman Brian Colón who grew up in Valencia County doesn't bring that objectionable metal chicharrone paddle he tried to pawn off as the real deal when he ran for lieutenant governor in 201o. Wooden paddles only, Brian. Viva Matanza!

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Lonesome Dave Not Lonesome; Gets First Visitors Since September Stroke, Plus: Susana's Biz Tax Break Draws Reader Reaction As Does Chief Schultz Blog

2012-01-10T00:54:00.026-07:00

Here's the first public photo of former NM GOP Governor Dave Cargo ('66-70) who was felled by a stroke he suffered in late September. Former ABQ GOP State Rep. and congressional candidate Janice Arnold-Jones visited Cargo over the weekend at the ABQ rehabilitation facility where he is recovering. She was among the first to be able to see Cargo since he was stricken:

"We had a wonderful visit and long conversation. We talked of the state centennial and politics. His 83rd birthday is this Friday and we plan to celebrate," reports Arnold-Jones.

Veteran radio newsman Frank Haley reports visiting Cargo on Monday and described him as "sharp as a tack."

The ex-Guv is using a wheelchair but has use of all his limbs, reports Haley.

Cargo, known for his bipartisanship during his four years as Governor, suffers from paralysis on his left side but as the visitors indicated, he is cogent and lucid. That means this master of the political one liner could have some new material for us very soon.

INTROSPECTIVE SUSANA

One year in and her legislative record is quite skimpy, but Governor Martinez gave a notable quote in her year-end interview that veers away from the rigidness that has hampered her and perhaps opens a new path for her to follow and make some progress:

I don't feel I put in the time I needed to to work with the legislators before the session itself. This coming year, that's what we're working on well in advance, is getting together with legislators and finding where can we compromise early on. I think that's where we were lacking a little bit in the first session.

Hey, that sounds like former GOP Governor Garrey Carruthers and retired GOP Senator Pete Domenici. Have they been whispering in Susana's ear?

If Martinez is serious about making compromises and moving to the center, her governorship could perk up. Her renewed emphasis on education in the interview is also telling. It's a subject on which Dems and R's have been known to find common ground.

There is plenty of room for this Governor to start making moves that might give the Dems heartburn and strengthen her popularity in this centrist state. For example, she has rejected a half a percent pay raise for state employees. How about a compromise that would give that raise to state workers making less than $40,000? And could she somehow work a deal with Senate Majority Leader Sanchez on her measure to hold back third graders who aren't meeting certain standards? That would be a feather in her legislative cap (And Sanchez's, too).

She is insistent on once again gobbling up legislative time over her doomed proposal to repeal driver's licenses for undocumented workers. It's the ultimate wedge issue and one her political advisers will not let her cede any ground on. They will use it against the Dems in this year's election.

But Martinez must sense that if she is to have a substantive term, ultimately she is going to have to move on from the wedge issues and onto the economy and education in a serious way. Independent voters love compromise as much as her party's base loathes it. Her base is nailed down and going nowhere. The independents are like lily pads floating about on the pond.

Her quote about legislative compromise and renewed earnestness in pursuing an education agenda is encouraging, but we learned long ago the wisdom of the old saying: "Watch what they do, not what they say." That's where we're at as this Governor as she begins year two of her four year term.

NOT SO FAST

Our first take on the Guv's plan to eliminate the gross receipts tax (GRT) for businesses that pay less than $200 of the tax a month was positive. The email brought the other side--lots of it: A Santa Fe wall-leaner writes:

How does giving a GRT exemption for a small business whose tax liability is less than $200 a month create jobs? The business would save a couple of hundred or maybe a thousand bucks per year, They're not going to hire someone for that. But the tax cut is a cumulative cost to the state of millions. How many public jobs would that money have created? I'm just curious, because the math never seems to add up to me..

And retired journalist and government advisor Bill Hume weighed in:

Am I missing something? Consider: A GRT liability of $200 a month would imply Taxable receipts of $2,857.14 --or $34,285.68 a year ( at a 7% rate). That entrepreneur ain't creating many jobs at that level of return. He (or she) probably isn't even supporting himself primarily from the business being taxed, given that if he were realizing a 50 percent profit on his gross receipts, he would be living on $17,142.84 a year.

There could be humanitarian (as in liberal Democratic) reasons for alleviating such an entrepreneur's GRT burden--but chances are it would primarily impact individuals and families with more sources of income than just the business being taxed....

And longtime reader Alan Schwartz checked in with this analysis:

I'm not getting this. The GRT is a pass-through to the consumer/purchaser. It's collected by the vendor/seller but imposed over and above the selling/contract price. How does this result in increased income to small business unless they spend more money to advertise "tax-free?" And if their business does increase, does the exemption go away?

And one more. Richard Ellenberg, chairman of the Santa Fe County Democratic Party chimes in:

The discussion of the cost so far seems misleading. Specifically, eliminating gross receipts tax would imply not just the State’s share, but also that of local government, school boards, bond financing, and special districts. If I am reading between the lines correctly, the $34 million estimate for lost revenue does include only the State’s share with no discussion of these other impacts.

They're all very solid arguments and enough for us to go back and do more homework on the plan. But it still seems to us that exempting these small businesses from the GRT would make them more competitive. We'll track this one as it makes its way around the Roundhouse and where its chances of it passing are already seen as few and far between.

THE CHIEF AND ME

The email also came in reacting to the back and forth on Monday's blog between your blogger and ABQ police chief Ray Schultz. Retired APD Seargent Dan Klein, a frequent correspondent on police matters, came with this:

In his response to you he tries to make it about the most recent officer shooting (which appears to be a good shooting), and ignores the civil rights violations lawsuits filed by the public and his own officers against him and the city.

Too bad Ray didn't respond to the lost and settled lawsuits, but what would he say? I think that question needs to be directed at Mayor Berry. Just how many millions in lost taxpayer money due to settled and lost lawsuits is Mayor Berry willing to accept before he says a change at APD is needed? What amount of money would he accept in his private construction company, before he got rid of an employee?

For Ray to point out that because you take advertising dollars from the ABQ Police Officers Association you should rubber stamp everything police related is just plain crazy. What is he thinking? Or it could be this type of mind set is what has cost Albuquerque taxpayers millions?

Joe, I think you have made it very clear to everyone, you will support when the facts say you should support and you will question when the facts say you should question. Millions in lost taxpayer money due to settlements and lost civil cases are facts that must cause someone to question the leadership. The city council and mayor don't seem to question anything, I am glad you are.

Thanks for the comments, Dan. We around here to ask the tough questions, and sometimes we get it right.

From Michael Gomez, we get this email:

Hello Mr. Monahan. I am Mike Gomez, father of Alan Gomez. APD shot and killed him on May 10th, 2011. He was shot in the back. He had just turned 22 yrs old. He was killed in front of his 24 yr old brother. His brother now can't work, has been on meds and going to a doctor. The pain that these fatal police shootings have on the families is never talked about. I have been working with the Martin Luther King group on bringing the Department of Justice to investigate APD. No one in the city government seems to care. I can go on and on, but I would like a chance to rebut what the chief said to you.

Thanks,
Mike Gomez-father of Alan Gomez-Who I miss so much.

This is the real stuff--life and death and our government. The questioning needs to be vigorous and the standards high for the leadership that holds that power. Or at least that's the way it is around this place.

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Say What? More Recession To Come? Plus: The Chief Speaks; APD's Schultz On Latest Shooting; Blog Draws His Ire, Also: Rep. Stapleton Draws Primary Foe

2012-01-09T00:54:00.049-07:00

You mean it's not over yet? After three years of being in the economic ditch, the state has finally shown signs of at least stabilizing but now we're being warned that this epic downturn could catch a second wind:

New Mexico’s economy lost those 53,000 jobs (in the recession), 20,000 of them in the construction industry and, according to forecasts and experts, won’t get them back until at least 2015. And the state’s economy, although recovering slowly, could lose another 50,000 jobs starting in 2013 if across-the-board federal spending cuts go into effect, some say.

Another 50,000 jobs? Say it ain't so, Joe. Well, those who are saying New Mexico must join the nation in "sacrificing" its federal funding to help solve the national deficit are looking like they're eligible for membership in a sado-masochistic society. It will take Democrats and Republicans working together following the 2012 election to keep the federal economic engine humming here.

For ABQ Mayor RJ Berry, the first Republican Mayor since the 80's, joblessness in the city has joined him at the hip bone ever since he took office in December 2009. Take a look:

...The Albuquerque metropolitan area remained mired in job losses. From November 2010 to November 2011, the region lost 1,000 jobs, according to the New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions. It was the 38th consecutive month of over-the-year job losses for the metro area.

38 months! Folks, this is not your daddy's early 90's downturn. Mayor, maybe it's time to drill for oil beneath Civic Plaza?

A SANTA FE IDEA

Santa Fe hasn't done much about the steady stream of joblessness the past three years, but they've finally come up with one clever idea. From the AP:

Martinez proposed lifting the gross-receipts tax on 40,000 small businesses, those with a tax liability of less than $200 a month.

Small business is a key employer in the state and eliminating the job-killing gross receipts tax on those that take in only about $40,000 a year or so could encourage expansion resulting in the jobs we need.

Not that there aren't some issues. The big business guys could start multiple businesses to take advantage of the tax break. And then there's the revenue hit to an already diminished state budget. How about restoring a higher personal income tax rate on the wealthiest to make up for this gross receipts cut? Well, the chances of that happening are about as good as the Sandia Mountains turning gold at sunset instead of watermelon red.

And the gross receipts break itself already seems headed to an early funeral with political pastor and Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith (also known as "Dr. No") presiding over the ceremony.

Smith and company would dig a ditch to find a lost penny, but their parsimonious ways are drawing increasing criticism as the state faces one of the highest rates of construction unemployment in the USA. That's why architects and other professionals are pushing for a big capital outlay bill to fund a wide range of state construction projects.

When the Legislature begins its 30 day session next week two state senators tell us there should be at least $300 million in capital outlay funds (severance tax and general obligation bonds) to divvy up without causing a property tax hike. Last session the Legislature approved less than $90 million in capital projects, much less than the over $210 million Governor Susana requested. We could get a repeat of that scenario if Dr. No is still in possession of the ball. But the continued construction sluggishness in this state calls for as much stimulus as we can get. Martinez may need to fight harder if the fiscal hawks she has broken with on this one continue to soar above the Roundhouse.

THE CHIEF SPEAKS
Chief Schultz
Last week saw another fatal police shooting--this one involving a burglar--and it prompted renewed criticism of APD Police Ray Schultz in this corner and elsewhere. We again wondered if and when Mayor Berry was going to start looking at the chief's "dirty linen" and make a change at the top of the police pyramid. That brought this retort directly from Chief Schultz:

Joe, in case you have not seen what occurred, the officer was in a fight for his life. Thank God he survived the incident. He nor the Department did anything wrong, just protecting our community from a brazen criminal who assaulted a helpless unarmed security guard. If you would actually examine the shootings and situations that the officers of APD have found themselves in lately you might be asking questions like: Why are these criminals out on the street? Or what would have happened if a unarmed law abiding citizen had encountered one of these criminals and had a tragic outcome? Or, Why are there so many holes in the State Mental Health System?

The shootings have occurred because of the actions of the individual, i.e. pulling a firearm, pulling a knife, attacking the officer, etc.. If you don't support the officers, you should not take the (police) Union's money and display their banner on your web page. If you do support the men and women of APD say so! Ray.

Thanks for the comments, Ray. We agree that many of those fatally shot in the last two years have been bad guys. Of course, there are issues with the mental health system and criminals who are not behind bars but should be. But that has nothing to do with whether there have been too many shootings. We welcome an investigation by the Department of Justice--currently pending--to determine what has gone wrong within APD. And it is not just the shootings. Numerous infractions have resulted in banner headlines. And then there are the millions of dollars going out the door as the result of lawsuits. And then there is the failed and damaging experiment when for the first time in city history you as police chief directly reported to the now ousted public safety director, instead of the chief administrative officer and mayor.

We wholeheartedly support the police department. That's why we have blogged our concerns as well as solicited the advice and opinions of two of your predecessors--Chiefs Sam Baca and Bob Stover--in trying to ascertain what has gone wrong.

Putting aside the string of relentless bad news, we think more than five years at the helm of APD is enough for any chief. Cliques tend to form and cultures can break down over time without fresh blood. That is more than a mere annoyance when it impacts a paramilitary organization.

As for the advertising policy here, placing an ad does not guarantee that the opinions of the advertiser are going to be reflected in these columns. Folks advertise here to reach the state's political and business communities. In this case, we do happen to be a supporter of public employee unions and their resolve to provide livable wages and good benefits to their membership. But we don't agree with the police union on all matters. For example, they don't believe there is a need for change at the chief's office. We do. By advertising here even when they disagree, they are signaling their support for a free and open discussion. That's the attitude that is going to eventually put APD back on track.

SHERYL CHALLENGED
Stapleton & Valente-Compton
Newly controversial State House Majority Whip Sheryl Williams Stapleton is drawing a challenger in the June primary. Her foe will be Cara Valente-Compton, 43, a University of New Mexico law school student who has long been involved in Dem party politics. She's a mother of four.

Stapleton opened a can of political worms when she delivered a racist rant against Governor Martinez during a recess at a capital committee hearing. Earlier, she took major media hits over receiving her salary as an administrator for the ABQ Public Schools while serving in the Legislature in Santa Fe.

We've wondered if all of this would lead to a challenge and now we have our answer. However, observers of the SE Heights district which Stapleton has represented since 1995 see an uphill battle for Valente-Compton. Stapleton is the first African-American woman elected to the Legislature and she retains the good will of labor unions and other Dem interest groups that can provide valuable support in a Dem primary. Still, if she is going to be taken out this is the year it could happen. If it did, Sheryl would have no one to point at but herself.

MOE IS FOR MARTIN

ABQ Dem Congressman and US Senate hopeful Martin Heinrich Heinrich continues to build a wall around ABQ to keep out challenger Hector Balderas. Here is the latest brick he's put in:

State Representative Antonio “Moe” Maestas announced his endorsement of Martin Heinrich...In a statement announcing his support Rep. Maestas praised Heinrich’s commitment to New Mexico’s families. “Now, more than ever, we need a thoughtful, courageous leader who will fight for working families. Martin will fight to rebuild our economy, create jobs and protect Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid from any cuts. He will move New Mexico forward,” said Maestas.

And will Moe of ABQ's Westside move Martin forward with Hispanics and progressives? Heinrich hopes so.

HOMANS' NEW HOME

We received this email from Rick Homans, former director of the NM Spaceport and a major player in the Big Bill Guv administration as well as a veteran of the state political scene:

Joe, Just wanted to pass on this news. It has been a pleasure working with you, and I will continue to bookmark and read your blog on a regular basis. Keep plugging the Spaceport -- you've made a real difference.

And here's the news Homans referenced:

Rick Homans, a former New Mexico state government economic development official, is the new chief executive officer and president of the Tampa Hillsborough Economic Development Corp...

In his years in ABQ and New Mexico Homans published a magazine, served as economic development secretary and pursued a number of business ventures. He also made a bid for mayor of ABQ in 2001. He wasn't always successful, but he hit a home run when he got the Spaceport up and running. That ensures his name will get a permanent space in the long-running book of La Politica.

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Happy 100th, New Mexico, Plus: Stepping It Up In ABQ US House Race, And: Fighting The Good Fight Down South

2012-01-06T00:54:00.017-07:00

First up, Happy 100th, New Mexico! There will be some fun to be had today when the clock ticks off the final seconds to mark our first century of statehood. From the city of ABQ:

At 11:35 am on January 6, 2012, New Mexicans can do something to honor their state that’s never been done before; wish it a Happy Birthday by honking their horns for about 30 seconds. 11:35 am MST is the approximate time President William Howard Taft signed New Mexico into statehood a century earlier...On that day, ABQ RIDE will hold a birthday ceremony with Mayor Richard Berry at the Alvarado Transportation Center. It will feature a Rail Runner locomotive horn, a whistle from a vintage locomotive, horns from ABQ RIDE buses and air and car horns sounding the approximate moment New Mexico became a state one hundred years ago....

And there will surely be plenty of political hot air to keep those air horns going...

BAD TIMING

Just when Mayor Berry thought he might be turning the corner on the fatal police shootings...bang. The morning paper hits with a front pager Thursday about how the shootings have subsided, but only a couple of hours after the paper is put to bed, police shoot and kill a burglary suspect. Berry has apparently decided to hang tough with APD Chief Ray Schultz, even as the Department of Justice considers launching a full-scale probe into the police shootings.

Berry is getting more room on this than you might suspect as a low-key (asleep at the switch?) city council puts little heat on him. Berry and Schultz are putting into effect higher educational and other standards in the hope it will put an end to the shootings. But the mayor may have his head under the rug when it comes to getting into Schultz's dirty linen.

STEPPING IT UP

It still seems like it's Eric Griego vs. Marty Chavez for the Dem nomination for the open ABQ congressional seat, but Dem Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham is fighting to make it a real three way battle:

Lujan Grisham today announced her..team that includes campaign manager Jason Robert Henry along with other top national Democratic political consultants including Dave Gold, Anna Greenberg, and New Media Firm’s Scott Kozar, Lisa Stanley and Will Robinson. Jason Henry (worked) field for Obama for America in Pittsburgh as well as running campaigns in Pennsylvania for U.S. Senate hopeful Joe Sestak..

REDISTRICTING REACTION

News and reaction to the redistricting decision coming down from a district court continue. From Valencia County:

A court decision redrawing boundary lines for New Mexico's three U.S. House districts shifts all but four Valencia County voting precincts into U. S. Rep. Steve Pearce's 2nd Congressional District. Prior to retired District Judge James Hall's decision to adopt what's being called the "least-change" map, the southeast corner of the county was part of the 1st Congressional District, currently represented by Martin Heinrich, a Democrat. The remainder of the county was already in the 2nd Congressional District.

ELECTION DEADLINE

Something to keep in mind if you are thinking about running for something:

Gov. Martinez will issue a Jan. 30 proclamation calling for a primary election to be held in every county and precinct in New Mexico.That proclamation will also require that as of Jan. 30, candidates must be affiliated with the political party for which they seek the nomination, and reside in the district they wish to represent.

THE GOOD FIGHT

When we blogged of the candidacy of Evelyn Madrid Erhard we noted how the odds are long for any Democrat to oust conservative Republican US Rep. Steve Pearce from the southern district this year. According to Dem Stephanie Dubois that makes her candidacy all the more appealing:

Not many of us, both Democrat and Republican are willing it seems to make a commitment of the magnitude that it takes to seek an elected office. I cannot predict with any certainty that Ms. Madrid Erhard will be successful but I applaud her willingness and tenacity to seek the Democratic nomination. Whatever the outcome in this race Erhard is a winner for standing up to the challenge and not letting the incumbent run free. That's true democracy.

And the candidate herself came with this reaction to our write-up:

If you mean that it's a cinch for Steve Pearce to win because he has the Republican Party, Karl Rove, TEA Party/Koch brothers' millions paying for his campaign, then I agree that he has an edge. It would be easy to be complacent. Now is not the time. According to the 2010 Census, NM is the second poorest state, and one out of five people live in poverty. I knocked on doors for the 2010 Election in the South Valley--one of the poorest areas in Dona Ana County. Approximately 100,000 people live in this area. After seeing where and how most folks live, I can say that at least four out of five live in poverty.

HE WON'T TAKE IT
Rep. Lewis
That big stir over Dem State Rep. Sheryl Williams Stapleton drawing a paycheck from ABQ Public Schools while attending legislative sessions in Santa Fe has turned up the heat on another lawmaker who toils for the school system. Rio Rancho GOP State Rep. Tim Lewis comes with this:

Although current APS policy allows teachers who serve in the state legislature to receive paid leave during the session, moving forward I have decided not to take my salary from APS while I am serving as a citizen legislator so that I can freely serve and avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest...

Meanwhile, the brother of Lewis--ABQ GOP City Councilor and ABQ congressional candidate Dan Lewis could use some spare cash. He reports raising $64,000 in the fourth quarter, confirming our earlier report. This is another anemic fund-raising report for Lewis and the narrative remains familiar. 2010 GOP congressional nominee continues to straddle the fence on whether he will seek the nomination again and is keeping big money on the sidelines.

How long can Barela keep a chokehold on Lewis? Well, the filing deadline for the pre-primary convention is Feb. 14. Also seeking the GOP nod to fill the seat being left vacant by Dem Rep. Martin Heinrich who is seeking the Dem nod for the US Senate seat are former GOP State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones and retired Army Seargent Gary Smith.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In a first draft in the Thursday blog we wrote that Judge James Hall who is handling the redistricting cases is a retired Republican. He is a Democrat. And we blogged the wrong religious affiliation of appointed ABQ District Court Judge Sam Winder. He says he is an Evangelical Christian. And finally, attorney Hilary Noskin reminds us she is a Republican--not a Dem.

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New Political Year Bursts Into View As We Make The Rounds In ABQ Valley; The Gang Was All There, Plus: Redistricting Blues And Hispanic History

2012-01-05T00:54:00.027-07:00

GOP Judges Alaniz, Hanisee & Winder
The political year to come burst into view as we made the rounds at the Barelas Coffee House this week. You know it's going to be a bombastic 10 months until Election Day when even the Republicans are hanging out in the overwhelmingly Democratic ABQ South Valley. The trio of Republican judges pictured here looked like something on a politically endangered list as they made their way about the fabled restaurant in search of chicharrones and votes. They need to be intrepid in a Democratic state like ours. And who knows? They could turn themselves into upset winners if they keep up the pace.

On the left (in the photo, not philosophically) is Bernalillo County Metro Court Judge Henry Alaniz, appointed by the Guv in April and now running for the seat on his own. The Roswell native is seen chumming it up with J. Miles Hanisee, a Susana appointee to the state Court of Appeals and Sam Winder (on the right) the first Native American Republican District Court judge who she named this year to the ABQ court.

Miles is campaigning statewide and jokes that his slogan is "Miles Per Hour" as he makes his way to the far reaches of New Mexico. He will face either Monica Zamora or Victor Lopez, the two Dems vying for their party's Court of Appeals nod in the June primary. Judge Hanisee recently came under scrutiny for donating $750 to Susana before he was appointed to the bench (Like all judges he was recommended to the Guv by the bipartisan judicial nomination commission). Unfortunately, we ran into him after lunch was over so he wasn't around to pick up our check.

Winder, a UNM School of Law grad ('88) is half African-American, half Native American and a Republican. Talk about diversity. Winder is loving his new job, but it looks as though he will have a tough fight keeping it. Paul Barber will challenge him for the GOP nomination. Also, Metro Court Judge Ben Chavez is expected to be the Dem nominee for the judgeship and that's a name that packs political punch. Sam has a fine sense of humor and he's going to need to keep it handy.

Also kicking off their new year with some Barelas red and green was noted federal prosecutor Greg Fouratt, a Roswell native and Republican who made major waves as the NM US Attorney. He remains a top level prosecutor under new US Attorney and Democrat Ken Gonzalez.

And our table-hopping continued as we ran into former GOP Bernalillo County Commissioner and KANW-FM radio general manager Michael Brasher lunching it up with wife Jorja, a department head for the city of ABQ. We joshed Brasher that he is now known as "Michael Tinnin" in recognition of Governor Martinez appointing him to the state Board of Finance. He replaces fellow Republican Tom Tinnin who resigned because of the wheeling and dealing over the state racino lease for the Downs at ABQ at NM Expo. Brasher smiled over his new nickname (Well...sort of).

Before we got out the door we spotted Agnes Maldonado, sister to Dem State Sen. Bernadette Sanchez. Agnes was an ardent supporter of Governor Susana and now works as director of administration at the state run NM Expo. We steered clear of any talk of that Downs deal, not wanting to cause any indigestion. Not that Agnes is uncomfortable with dissent. Sitting with her and chewing the political tortillas was Theresa Trujeque, a longtime Dem activist currently assisting Dem US Senate contender Hector Balderas. Also on hand was attorney Hilary Noskin and mom Mary Noskin, both Republicans. Mary informed that former NM GOP Governor Dave Cargo remains in an ABQ rehabilitation facility after suffering a stroke late last year. Cargo turns 83 January 13 and his many friends everywhere are wishing him the best.

And that wasn't the only bipartisan table. National Hispanic Cultural Center Foundation President and former Democratic First Lady ('75-79) Clara Apodaca was dishing it up with Edward Lujan, former NM GOP chairman, leading businessman and one of the founding fathers of the center. Edward's brother, former Congressman Manuel Lujan, will be 84 this May and Edward reports he is going strong.

So who says the Dems and R's can't get along--at least when they're not in Santa Fe. Hey, maybe we should move the Roundhouse to Barelas.

(P.S. All of our lunchers report being daily readers of the blog. Heck, there may even be an Alligator or two in the bunch, but we'll never tell.)

POLITICAL WAVES

The political waves over that controversial state House redistricting decision from retired Judge James Hall continue to crash ashore. Here in a nutshell is what happened with the 70 House districts:

Tuesday’s decision increases the number of “swing districts” from five to eight and alters a sizeable number of districts for sitting House members so that the power of incumbency is reduced while increasing the overall competitiveness of statewide races. That’s bad news for Democrats, who saw their plan...rejected. Rep. Brian Egolf (D-Santa Fe) said he was distressed that Judge Hall bought “into the governor’s crass effort to achieve a radical Republican gerrymander.” Rep. Tom Taylor, who is the House minority leader, sent out an e-mail to Republican members immediately after Hall’s ruling saying, “Whoopee!”...

The Dems could appeal the ruling. Taylor may be overly optimistic. Under the court-approved plan, the odds makers don't see a GOP takeover of the House which is narrowly divided 36 to 33 with one independent. But it may make it harder for the Dems to pick up the two or three seats they were counting on in this big turnout presidential year.

ABQ Dem Rep. Bill O'Neill checks in to tell us he was surprised by the ruling. We blogged earlier how it appeared his district was going to get more Dem. That is still the case, but much less so than under the plan that was approved by the Legislature, vetoed by the Governor and rejected by Judge Hall.

Insiders say 40 year State Rep. Nick Salazar will hang up his spurs if he has to face off with fellow northern Dem Rep. Tomas Garcia as is called for under the judge's ruling.

A sidebar: Any appeal of the plan would go before the State Supreme Court--controlled by the Dems, but the Supremes appointed the retired Hall to do the redistricting. How prone would they be to reverse him?

THAT'S A SWITCH

A state budget that actually calls for spending more? Yep. After three years of the scalpel, the Legislative Finance Committee calls for spending $5.7 billion for the budget year that begins July 1. That's a 4.6 percent increase. The projected surplus is $250 million, The state budget peaked during the bull market at about $6.2 billion, so we are still a long way from those glory days.

The still skittish and scattered economic recovery is generating a bit more tax revenue. High oil prices also add to state coffers. The state gets about a quarter of its revenue from royalties on oil and natural gas.

We calculated that 57% of this state budget proposal goes to education--$2.9 billion for the public schools and $756 million for higher education. The Guv will come with her own budget before the start of the legislative session.

ABOUT TIME

One portion of the higher ed budget that won't be increased is the salary for the new University of New Mexico president. Robert Frank will earn $355,000 plus benefits. The current president pulls down nearly $600,000 in what amounts to one of the most overpaid state jobs ever. Frank is being brought in by the UNM Regents from Kent State University. He faces a campus that has been in turmoil for several years and a university that has a hazy identity. Will he bring in his own management team? He ought to.

BOWING OUT
Mullins
Farmington's Tom Mullins, the oil engineer who impressed observers with a strong Republican run against Ben Ray Lujan for the Northern congressional seat in 2010, won't be worrying about any 2012 election deadlines. He's opted out of the action:

I am unable to fully commit myself to the effort necessary to win this challenging seat. I have family and business obligations that preclude me from serving New Mexicans in this important position, should I succeed.

Mullins scored 43% of the vote against Lujan running as a true-blue conservative. His withdrawal leaves businessman Rick Newton as the GOP challenger to Ben Ray who is a heavy favorite in the district where Hispanics and Native Americans make up a majority. As for Mullins, his air of authenticity may position him for a future run. But he might want to drop any notion of putting land mines on the US-Mexico border.

HISPANIC HISTORY

Speaking of Hispanics and the population of the state, reader Bill Hume noted that the blog reported Wednesday that by 2035 New Mexico will be majority Hispanic. He writes:

They were the majority at the start 100 years ago. This is why Hispanics have always had a significant voice in New Mexico political matters, to a degree not matched in any other state, to my knowledge. We haven't been free of prejudice, to be sure -- but our Hispanics haven't been bereft of political influence either.

Thanks for that, Bill. Hispanics are well-represented at the political table. We have a Hispanic Governor, Senate Majority Leader, state House Speaker, and three members of the five member State Supreme Court. It might be argued that the congressional delegation is light with Hispanic representation. Of the five members only Rep. Ben Ray Lujan is of Hispanic descent.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Goodbye to Mike Cerletti. It was a job well done by New Mexico's first tourism secretary. He was claimed by brain cancer this week at the age of 72.

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Framing The 2012 Republican Race For The US Senate: The Troubles Of Wilson And Sanchez; We Peel The Onion, Plus: New Mexico's Next 100 Years

2012-01-04T00:54:00.000-07:00

Wilson Vs. Sanchez
For her entire political career former ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson has sported the label "moderate" but in today's Republican Party that can be deadly. So as Heather battles Lt. Governor John Sanchez for the GOP US Senate nomination, she has dropped the "M word" and constantly describes herself as a conservative. The switch is not going unnoticed among the wall-leaners:

Liberal Use of Conservative Award: This conservative award goes to the conservative Heather Wilson, who is seeking the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate — as a conservative. It seems that every one of her conservative news releases uses the word "conservative" about a dozen times. And that's a conservative estimate.

Not only is it the prospect of Sanchez securing support on her right that has Heather running scared from her moderate past, she remembers all too well the pasting she took from Rep. Steve Pearce when she sought the 2008 Senate nomination.

And just where is the GOP contest for Senate as we rapidly approach the key mid-March pre-primary convention?

Well, Sanchez is quietly working the rural areas--and we mean quietly. His low-key approach has supporters fretting that Heather, who has raised a million bucks and is waxing him in the polls (she's over 50% against him), is walking away with the nomination in the early going. Gadfly contenders Greg Sowards and Bill English are also on the trail touting conservative credentials but so far this is a Wilson-Sanchez contest.

Over the decades we've seen "waterfall" events in state politics. That's where a candidate like Sanchez launches an attack against a foe and they begin a rapid collapse. That is now Sanchez's hope. That Wilson has a glass jaw--that conservative Republicans will start bolting from her en masse as soon as she is convincingly labeled a "moderate."

This will take excellent timing and lots of TV money. Sanchez has shown in the past that he is capable of both, but this race has plodded along for months with little movement away from Wilson. Is it too late? Is the race over? No. But by being so far behind in the early going, Sanchez will have little margin of error to start a waterfall towards him. If he doesn't attack, he will stay stuck. And if he does attack, the hits will have to be spot on. Otherwise, he drowns.

As for Wilson, she does not have the strength that her mentor--former Senator Pete Domenici-- had to whip the party in line and make it take a moderate tack. She is being forced to the right to secure the party's nomination, but she is crafty and giving herself wiggle room to move back to the center for a general election contest. But her electability remains a major concern, even as some Republicans are in denial. They've trotted out a platoon of media and party spinners sympathetic to Heather to beat back the early numbers, but the Alligators remain unconvinced. They smell blood in the water.

OMINOUS OUTLOOK?

That Democratic poll showing Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich beating Wilson by seven points is ominous. Even if the poll is off and his lead is much less or the race is a dead-heat as Wilson says it is, she appears to have a cap on her support somewhere around 45 to 48 percent. Her negatives are high from the many pitched battles she waged to retain her ABQ congressional seat. She is also saddled with baggage from the Bush years, a presidency she supported, but is now held in disrepute. And she is an old face during a time when the electorate is restless with politics as usual.

With her name ID nearly universal, Wilson is not going to have much luck changing perceptions about herself. If she is the nominee, her only path to victory will be a relentless attack on the Dem nominee. That's why there is still murmuring over Sanchez being a viable alternative--a candidate who does not carry the heavy sack of negatives Wilson does, is a native Hispanic New Mexican who can appeal to Independents and Dems and who has a strong TV presence. But Sanchez's semi-slumber has kept these arguments confined to the political parlors and not bouncing around yet among rank and file Republicans.

History shows that whoever wins the Senate seat has a good chance of holding it for decades. The elite in the political parties may want to avoid spirited nomination battles, but for New Mexicans the more the mettle of the next Senator is tested, the better. It may sound like a cliche but in the decades ahead this federally dependent state is going to need a fighter. Nomination contests featuring some body blows is as good a way as any to determine who can really go the distance for us in the halls of the US Capitol.

100 YEARS

Our state is 100 years old this Friday. What of the next 100?

New Mexico's Hispanic population over the next 100 years will grow to be the majority ethnic group, regardless of federal immigration policy, a local researcher and pollster predicts. At the same time, the number of senior citizens in the state who depend on government services will increase, as budgets for programs to help them will shrink.

The major challenge for New Mexico as it sets off on its second century of statehood is to better educate its populace, For generations, Hispanic and Native American students have lagged behind. Changing the culture of low expectations is key. A measure to dedicate a portion of the state's Permanent Fund to reach the very youngest--from birth to age five--will be considered in the upcoming legislative session. It deserves bipartisan consideration.

WHAT DO YOU GET?

The century of statehood ahead, like the one just past, is going to be laden with scientific advances and the New Mexico Spaceport is poised to help lead the way. But what exactly will those sub-orbital space travelers launched from the Spaceport get for their $200,000 tickets? The wrap on that is here.

So far, 500 wannabe space travelers have plunked down the $200k. Virgin Galactic isn't saying exactly when launches will occur. There is a long test period ahead so don't expect anything this year.

The Spaceport is expected to provide an ongoing economic boost to southern New Mexico, but the economy there remains flat. Here is the latest on how things shape up in El Paso, just a short trip from Las Cruces:

...Economic output hardly grew last year compared to a strong 2010, and the economy is projected to continue to be sluggish in 2012, slightly slower than projections for the national economy, according to a UTEP forecast released last week.

STATE HOUSE LINES

The district judge handling redistricting chores has come with his decision on the state House boundaries for the next ten years:

A state district judge has approved a plan for drawing new boundaries of state House of Representative districts that will pair two Republican incumbents in southeastern Mexico and two Democrats in the north-central part of the state.

The plan approved was the one submitted by the Guv. Some Dems were grumbling over that. What to watch for now is whether minority groups appeal the case to a higher court.

HISPANIC POWER

This was supposed to be the year when Republicans were able to peel off large chunks of support from President Obama, but it isn't working out that way--at least not yet:

Polling has consistently shown Latinos falling out of love with Obama, but so far, the GOP just hasn’t made itself into a viable alternative. And for now, it appears Obama could match his 2008 advantage among Latinos, which went a long way toward securing his victory among this growing demographic.

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2012 Starts With 2011 Leftovers: Susana & Licenses, ABQ GOP Congress? More Jobless Recovery? That & More As We Blog In A New Year Of La Politica

2012-01-03T00:53:00.025-07:00

Welcome back. We pick up with this first blog of 2012 where we left off in 2011. Will Governor Martinez finally sway the Legislature and win a repeal of the controversial law that allows undocumented immigrants to have driver's licenses? Will Jon Barela, 2010 GOP nominee for the ABQ US House seat, dive into the 2012 contest? Will New Mexico rid itself of this jobless economic recovery?

On the first matter there's been a crack in the Democratic dam. Las Cruces area State Sen. Steve Fischmann says he's going with Susana on the licenses. And not coincidentally, he also announces he is a candidate for re-election. That prompted veteran Las Cruces newsman Walt Rubel to make the first bold political prediction of the new year--that the third repeal effort will indeed be the charm for Susana:

This has been the primary issue for Gov. Susana Martinez for the past year. Democrats in the Legislature were narrowly able to beat back the bill last year, but that wasn't an election year. This year is....The bottom line on this one is New Mexico is out of step with the rest of the nation, and the vast majority of residents want to see the law changed.

All 112 members of the Legislature (70 state representatives and 42 senators) are up for election this year. If Martinez is ever going to win on this one, you have to believe the time is now. But we're much less certain than Walt that her political team is scaring the pants off the lawmakers and not making the Dem leadership hunker down even more. The answer will come soon enough as the Legislature begins its 30 day session January 17.

OFF TO THE RACES

On the ABQ congressional race, the hottest topic remains whether Jon Barela, economic development secretary-designate, will give a run another try. Dem congressional hopeful Marty Chavez told a Friday night fund-raiser he believes Barela is a go based on phone calls he has heard that Barela is making. Also, the Alligators report yet another anemic quarter of fund-raising for GOP contenders Dan Lewis and Janice Arnold-Jones. They say political newcomer and retired Army Sergeant Gary Smith will out raise them both by giving himself over $100,000. These fourth quarter reports will become public at mid-month but my insiders say it is clear that big GOP money remains on the sidelines as it awaits Barela's decision.

If Barela gets in he will be a major player for the nomination. The Martinez machine controls much of the party apparatus. However, his loss to Dem Martin Heinrich in 2010 hurt. Dems also think he is weakened by news of his personal financial problems and by the overall tarnishing of the GOP brand the past year. We have to agree with them that the seat appears "Lean Dem," in a year when the presidential campaign will draw more moderate voters to the polls, but a strong GOP candidacy remains a potential threat.

SENATE DERBY

In the race for the US Senate we begin 2012 wondering if Democrat Hector Balderas will go the distance in his duel with Rep. Martin Heinrich.

Insiders are watching every hair on Hector's head (Hold on. He's bald). Well, then let's say they're watching every step he takes as they assess whether he will take his campaign up to the March pre-primary convention and then get out and endorse Heinrich. The two term congressman--playing it like a steady Eddie--is the establishment favorite with the big money lead, but with soft support from Hispanics who are so important to taking the Dem nomination. Remember, Hector could use any money he has left from his Senate race for a 2014 contest for attorney general or even Governor.

Not much has changed in Hector's world since our initial analysis of the Hector-Heinrich battle way back when. He is behind and is faced with the unpleasant prospect of having to attack Heinrich to win. That is a major gamble for him in this race and for his future political career. Heinrich wants it so bad it brings to mind the line that he would run over his grandmother to get it. (Well, at least he wouldn't smile doing it). Hector wants it too, but unlike Heinrich he has future options. It's quite the balancing act for the youthful State Auditor who has bitten off a big branch from the tree of La Politica. His moment of truth is fast approaching.

VIVA HECTOR

Let's go to a Senior Alligator for a somewhat contrary view on the Hector-Heinrich match-up. He says it is balderdash to be talking about Balderas getting out of this race:

Balderas is now too strong for Heinrich to put away and his climb in the polls will accelerate after the legislative session. He is sweeping legislative endorsements and boots on the ground will turn the tide his way. And the polling--A stagnant 47.0 for Heinrich to a rising 30.0% for Balderas with 23.0% undecided is showing Heinrich as having support that is a mile wide and a foot deep.

POLITICAL TOXICOLOGY

Governor Martinez held her nose and buried the news, but in the end she had no choice but to appoint ABQ Dem attorney Linda Curtis to fill a very Republican state senate seat. This was the one left vacant in the ABQ NE Heights by Kent Cravens who resigned to take a job with the energy industry. For many it symbolized much of what is wrong with today's politics.

The Guv made the forced appointment late Friday heading into the long holiday weekend. That deprived Curtis of much publicity. Not that it would help her and not that Curtis isn't capable and qualified. But she will have to run for election to the seat this year and if she does, her chances of winning in this Demless area are about as good as finding enchiladas at a Chinese restaurant.

When she was sworn in Monday, R's turned up the temperature. The state party said:

Several dozen residents showing up to the swearing-in Monday to demand Curtis represent the needs of the district on the issue of repealing the law that gives driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.

Since the seat contains portions of both Bernalillo and Sandoval counties, the county commissions there were charged with sending replacement names to the Guv. The long standing tradition has been for the commissions to recommend a replacement who comes from the dominant party in the district. But not in today's toxic political atmosphere.

Martinez doesn't get off the hook, either. Her political team has played the hardest of hardball when it comes to the Dem-controlled Legislature and that made it easier for the Dem-controlled commissions to give Curtis the nod and ignore precedent. Still, someone in politics has to take the high road or else it will soon be like old Route 66--a relic of the past.

THE GREAT BEAR IN 2012

Our unstinting coverage these past several years of the long term economic recession/depression afflicting New Mexico has won reader praise. We don't take any pleasure in imparting the usually dreary news, but we do believe in facing reality. And here's where we begin this first week of 2012:

New Mexico's employment base decreased 3.89 percent--32,600 nonfarm jobs--during the five year period (between November 2006 and November 2011. The drop ranks the Land of Enchantment No. 23 out of the 50 states and D.C....

The construction depression is a major culprit. And then there's the slowdown in government employment--the vertebrae of the New Mexican economy. The feds aren't hiring and neither are the state or ABQ governments.

And although you may have a good-paying job, this slowdown is hitting you in the pocketbook if you own your home. The latest median price for an ABQ home is a historically meager $160,000. Why? Because jobs drive housing and until we get the jobs, the housing market is going to languish and the value of your humble abode is likely to stagnate or drop further.

The good news is that we appear to have stabilized in terms of the revenue that is coming into the state and ABQ governments, but our economic recovery is snail-like and we don't see it becoming hare-like in 2012.

THE IDEA MACHINE

In 2011, our readers offered a wheelbarrow full of suggestions for the Legislature and Governor to get the economic wheels here spinning faster. And we continue to hear from them as we turn the calender in the new year. Jim McClure comes with this take on our calls for increasing state spending on promoting the state:

I'd like to see the state invest more in tourism because it's one of the few opportunities to build an economy on something other than government spending. Tourism is a natural for New Mexico because it does not require an educated workforce or business-friendly regulatory policies...What's needed is a comprehensive focus on tourism by multiple state agencies and private business groups.

One easy step would be to promote the RailRunner to tourists and and adjust its schedule during peak tourism periods. Last week my out-of-town guests decided not to take the train to Santa Fe because they would have had to leave early in the morning and return in the evening. (Where's Fred Harvey when we need him?). More advertising would certainly help, but we also need better coordination among government agencies and business groups to connect the dots on tourism.

Thanks, Jim. We're sure this is the first of what will be many ideas from our readers on how to make New Mexico an even better place in which to live and work.

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The Dogs Of Christmas: Mayor & Guv Send Out 2011 With Pooch Pics; We Have Fun With That, And: So Long, 2011; You're Outta Here

2011-12-30T00:44:00.018-07:00

Those Alligators have had their eyes on all things political all year long and they don't stop during the holidays. Even the Christmas cards of the state's high and mighty are not exempt from Gator scrutiny. Of course, it's all in the spirit of the season:

Perhaps it's coincidence (or the result of having the same political consultant) but having man's best friend on the Governor and Mayor's Christmas cards seems very important this year.

In the case of ABQ GOP Mayor RJ Berry it actually appears calculated since "Skip" is on the card, but all alone for Christmas, not in the loving embrace of his family like the Governor and First Gentleman's pooches are. It begs the question: If Skip is such an important part of the family, couldn't the Berry's find time to take a picture with him? After all, that Santa hat he's sporting is just adorable.

And is Berry going through something of an identity crisis? On the Xmas card he's "Rich." During the campaign he was "R.J." After he was elected he was "Richard." Could he pick a name and stick with it? Interesting choice of picture for the Berry's, too. Does anything say Christmas to Albuquerque voters more than the Great Wall of China?

Okay, enough of that snarkiness, Gator.

Skip the dog couldn't make the trip to the Great Wall. By picturing him alone Mayor Berry intends for Skip to serve as a symbol of America's individualism and iconoclastic attitude that stands in stark contrast to China. (Really!)

By the way, the names of the Guv's dogs are Sterling, Silver and Riggs. With upper crust names like those, we hope First Gent Chuck is giving them more than his favorite baloney for the holidays. (Is giving your dogs such aristocratic monikers meant to signal aspirational Republicanism?)

JOHNSON WATCH

It appears the Libertarian Party will not have to gather several thousand petition signatures to remain a recognized minor party in the state for 2012. One of our analysts speculated otherwise recently. The New Mexican reports:

The Libertarian Party, which has been on the New Mexico general election ballot for at least 30 years, is currently qualified as a minor political party in New Mexico, according to Ken Ortiz, the chief of staff for the Secretary of State's Office.

Former GOP Governor Gary Johnson has launched a bid for the Libs 2012 Prez nomination this week. If he takes it, he could be expected to jumble the White House contest here.

The NM GOP is not commenting on Johnson's abandoning of the Grand Old Party, but NM Dem Party Executive Director Scott Forrester was quick to pounce:

This a game changer for Republicans whose long term and deep running divisions are at last coming to the surface. Johnson entering the race as a Libertarian shows how the GOP is driving out diverse voices. Democrats are united in President Obama and Johnson's candidacy would only make it more challenging for the eventual GOP nominee to consolidate his own party's base, especially in NM.

THE SESSION

Maybe something will get done in the 30 day legislative session that starts in January? The Guv comes with this which could be seen as having bipartisan appeal:

The recommendations call for $4.2 million to fund increased access to AP programs, and $2.5 million for statewide short-cycle tests for more than 180,000 students in grades 4 through 10. Martinez said such tests help teachers identify gaps in learning and adjust their instruction. Some districts already use these tests, but there is no statewide standard.

MARTY WOES

This is not the way you want to start the year for your campaign for the Dem nomination for the ABQ US House seat:

A spokesman for former three-term mayor of Albuquerque Martin Chavez confirmed that Chavez's "significant other," Loretta Mares, is the same woman named as a defendant in a lawsuit claiming that several years ago, she and others embezzled $3.2 million from what is now Christus St. Vincent Regional Medical Center. The suit filed by the hospital's insurance company Dec. 23 also names Richard A. Crabtree, St. Vincent's former chief operating officer, Mares' two brothers and five companies controlled by her and or her siblings. "I have absolutely no knowledge of anything related to these allegations," Chavez wrote in an email statement. "My relationship with Loretta began long after."

That drooling you are hearing comes from the R's who love nothing better to rough up a Dem contender on ethics, but wavering Dems will now also have a reason to go against Marty. But the fight for the US House nomination is far from settled. State Sen. Eric Griego has been consolidating considerable support and Michelle Lujan Grisham still has a fighting chance.

REDISTRICTING RULING

As expected, the judge presiding over the redistricting of the state's three congressional districts took the path of least change. One of my analysts looking at the approved plan said "it does not appear to be any major restructuring of the political landscape."

The Guv says the court accepted a bi-partisan plan for the US House seats that cut down on the contention and means less legal fees for taxpayers. So why couldn't our Governor and Legislature get the job done and save us all the legal fees? Because like Washington, Santa Fe often doesn't work anymore.

KEITH, JERRY AND JOE (PART III)

Just to resolve any question as to whether Guv Martinez Chief of Staff Keith Gardner was sitting with Jerry Peters, Dem financial heavy and major friend of ex-Guv Big Bill, at last month's Lobo-Aggie basketball game we have this additional confirmation not from an Alligator--but a Senior Alligator:

I sat one row and one section behind Peters and Gardner and can tell you they came together and left together. They sat in Peters' seats which are at half court just down from the UNM President's seats. Lobbyist Art Hull was with them as well. These are the same seats Richardson always used. Facts.

And important facts they are because the world of La Politica is all about connections and associations. And you, dear reader, are on a "need to know" basis.

However, we have more insider info on this from another source as the Guv's office is not commenting:

The Gov has 6 tickets to every event at UNM and to every one at NMSU. The Gov's tickets are directly in front of the President's tickets not "just down from." The Governor's tickets in 2008 were moved closer to the President's to try and build a closer relationship with the UNM president and the Governor. Your reader maybe recalling the location of the old seats and not the new ones.

And the Senior Alligator responds to that:

Not to beat a dead horse, but there are no seats in front of the UNM president. The President, and others were all given the seats right behind the clock operator and scorer when Athletic Director Davalos left town. The Gov. does not have assigned seats at UNM or NMSU. I stand by my facts.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Thanks for making us the state's top political news and analysis web site in 2011. We run into many of you who tell us, "Joe, your site is the first thing I read each morning..." It's pretty heady praise and keeps us working overtime to bring you the angles and perspective you simply can't get anywhere else.

We'd also like to tip our hat to our many advertisers in the past year. They make this effort possible. We thank them and ask you to consider us for your advertising needs for the coming year. There's no better way to reach the state's most involved audience.

After spending a bustling Christmas in New York City, we're back to ring in the new year in New Mexico. It will be done so quietly and that's fine as the election year of 2012 promises to provide plenty of noise and fireworks. We plan to be here to bring all of it to you and look forward to seeing you then.

Happy New Year, New Mexico.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

E-mail your news and comments and advertising inquiries to jmonahan@ix.netcom.com

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2011

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Guessing Game Over Gary As He Takes Third Party Path, Plus: Promoting NM--Should We Step It Up? And: Keith, Jerry And The Blogger

2011-12-29T00:54:00.015-07:00

He's nearly a sure thing to take 5% of the NM presidential vote and 8% is probably his top line number. So says veteran Dem political analyst and pollster Harry Pavlides in the wake of the official announcement from former NM GOP Governor Gary Johnson that he will seek the 2012 Libertarian Party presidential nomination.

He will have to work for it, but the 5% is very doable. He could head toward 8% if he puts a special effort into the state. I see him performing strongly in places like San Juan County in the heavy Republican Four Corners where there is a strong Libertarian bent, and his long ties to ABQ will benefit him here.

History shows a regular Lib prez contender has trouble cracking the 1% mark. Analyst Pavlides said Johnson benefits from his name ID from eight years as Governor from 1995 to 2003:

If you're a Democrat, you see Johnson as having done a lot of harm to the state, but when he left there was no obvious implosions, so he benefits.

We would add that there is a risk of underestimating Johnson's media appeal. The ABQ Journal and Santa Fe New Mexican have both given what some observers see as an inordinate amount of coverage to his longshot and now defunct campaign for the GOP presidential nod. His Santa Fe news conference Wednesday announcing his Lib bid played heavily on all three major network TV affiliates. It's a sure thing that Johnson will be getting more of this extremely valuable free media in the months ahead--at least in New Mexico.

Pavlides and other analysts agree that Johnson will mostly take Republican votes, but will peel off some Independents and others who favor drug legalization, but his primary appeal is his fiscal conservatism. That will pull the votes in on the east side of the state where the GOP prez nominee will need a strong showing.

For the NM GOP the best outcome is that Republican Ron Paul gets out of the GOP Prez race as Johnson did and goes after the Lib nomination. That could upend Gary's plans.

CREDIT CHECK

We pointed to former ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez and ex-Governor Big Bill as two prominent Dem politicians who advanced gay rights in the state. We did so while blogging of a PPP poll that showed New Mexico tipping in favor of gay marriage, but several readers pointed out that former ABQ Mayor Jim Baca (1997-2001) was overlooked. An example:

For the record, Jim Baca was the mayor who in 2001 extended, for the first time, healthcare benefits to city employees who had gay partners. He was the first Mayor to ride in the Gay Pride parade. He took a lot of grief for both actions.

PROMOTING NM

Elbowing our way through the Christmas crowds along Fifth Avenue this week we heard a plethora of accents, but Brooklynese or Jersey slang was definitely in the minority. It was Russian, Chinese and other accents that broke through the big city din. It made us thankful that they were over here spending back some of the dollars that we've sent over there. But what about little 'ol New Mexico getting some of their largess? That's where our tourism department comes in and its newfound reluctance to fight for more promotional dollars. Tourism Secretary Monique Jacoboson says do less with more, but that's not what New York is doing or, as we previously blogged, Colorado.

There's a wave of new money washing over new populations. The mystique that is New Mexico is now available to them, but only if they know about it. With the state nearing the centennial year of 2012, now is the ideal time for Governor Martinez and Secretary Jacobson to get aggressive and market to these new consumers. Parsimony has no pay-off if it means keeping the new class of world tourists in the dark and away from the bright light that is this Land of Enchantment.

JERRY, KEITH AND JOE

A year or so ago we mentioned favorably the discussion that Santa Fe tycoon Gerald Peters took part in to advance New Mexico tourism in China, but today our discussion of Peters is of a more controversial variety. Santa Fe attorney Slate Stern represents Peters and has a bone to pick with us over our blog in which we noted that Governor Martinez chief of staff Keith Gardner was spotted enjoying a recent Lobo-Aggie college basketball game with Peters, a Dem and major financial friend of former Governor Big Bill:

Your blog on December 8 about Gerald Peters misleads your readers. It implies that because Mr. Peters was sitting next to one of Governor Martinez's staff members at a New Mexico Lobo-Aggie basketball game, Mr. Peters is paying-to-play with the Martinez administration. Nothing could be further from the truth...

The fact that Mr. Peters sat next to a Martinez staffer at a basketball game suggests nothing more than that person and Mr. Peters are acquainted with one another and that both of them enjoy basketball. A simple Internet search with the New Mexico Secretary of State would have answered any question you may have had whether Mr. Peters has made significant contributions to the Martinez administration in an attempt to gain favor.

Your December 8th blog about Mr. Peters is nothing more than rumor mongering. It is not based in fact. Before you implied in your column that Mr. Peters was paying-to-play with the Martinez administration, would it not have been prudent on your part to simply inquire how much money Mr. Peters has, in fact, given to the Martinez administration? Had you done that you would have learned that Mr. Peter's contributions to the Martinez campaign have been nominal and that there is absolutely no basis in fact to allege that...

Thanks for your letter, Slate. Our point was that it was quite interesting to see the chief of staff to Martinez hanging with Peters, a major financial backer of Richardson's who gave him more than $100,000, loaned his jet for Big Bill's travels and ran into pay-to-play allegations during Bill's terms. Martinez made it clear that such associations would be verboten in her administration.

While attorney Stern is correct to say that Peters has not been a major financial backer of Martinez and there is no reason to imply that he is paying to play, his mere presence at the highest reaches of this administration is enough to give any reasonable observer pause.

We hear through the grapevine--the Governor's office will not comment--that an advisor to the Governor says Peters was in the vicinity of Gardner at the game and not actually attending it with him, but this letter from Peters' attorney indicates otherwise and confirms our Alligator's report that Peters and Gardner did sit sit together.

It's not about the integrity of Peters, a successful and talented businessman, but about the actions of those who hold government power. We probably could have done a better job in making that distinction. But our intent was not to "rumor monger" but to reveal a public association that we found very unusual and very striking in the context of the rhetoric of the 2010 campaign. The Republican chief of staff to the Republican Governor hanging with a top Democratic financial backer of Bill Richardson? Come on, Slate. That's not rumor mongering, that's news.

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Poll Has Catholic NM Tipping In Favor Of Gay Marriage, And: In The Holiday Kitchen

2011-12-28T00:54:00.017-07:00

It is somewhat surprising that this Catholic state has apparently tipped in favor of gay marriage. At least that's what the latest polling from Dem firm PPP says:

When PPP last polled the state in June, voters were against legalizing it by a 42-48 margin. In the intervening half-year, opinion has moved eight points, with 45% now wanting gay couples to be able to legally marry in the state, and 43% still against it. The reason for the shift is that Democrats (from 34% to 28%) and independents (44% to 37%) have lowered their opposition by six or seven points.

Republican ABQ Mayor RJ Berry, who rode into office with strong support from the evangelical community, has into some trouble from them for his even-handed approach toward the gay community, but he was only reflecting the city's overall attitude. On the Dem side, former ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez and ex-Guv Bill Richardson were early backers of gay rights and are credited with setting the standard for their party.

Speaking of Chavez and Richardson, several of Marty's supporters pointed out that the two are not the best of political friends. They did so after we blogged about Big Bill's latest legal troubles and how they might impact the political fortunes of the Dems in 2012. Chavez is seeking the nomination for the ABQ congressional seat and there are scores of photos of Bill and Marty together when they they were both previously in power. But over the years the relationship went downhill for a variety of reasons. One of the big ones? Marty's backers cite Bill's support of stripping the city's authority over the water department and handing much of it to Bernalillo County.

This is inside baseball. If Richardson is indicted and is in the news next year, the R's are not going to make any distinction as to who is or isn't a Friend of Bill. They are going to try to tie him to the Dems like a Siamese twin. But if it helps Chavez sleep better at night knowing he has a a degree of separation, so be it.

THE HOLIDAY KITCHEN

Allen Weh is back. No, we don't mean back on the campaign trail. The onetime NM GOP chairman and '10 Guv candidate is back in his favorite spot-- the kitchen. He puts up this video on YouTube for the holiday season in which he prepares a dish called "Caldo Gallego." It features chorizo sausage from Spain.

Allen never did make it to the Guv's Mansion, but, with the first family still chomping down on those baloney sandwiches they're so fond of and with the Guv's chef long since dismissed, we wonder if gourmet/gourmand Allen might want to help Susana out in the kitchen. we haven't tasted his cooking, but, after being in the eye of New Mexico politics for so long, we do know he can stand the heat in there.

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Pearce Foe Starts Down Campaign Trail, Plus: Latest In ABQ Congress Race, And: Tom Udall Keeps Posted

2011-12-27T00:49:00.006-07:00

Sure, Republican US Rep. Steve Pearce is a cinch to win re-election to his southern congressional district. (Well, maybe not as much of a cinch as he would be in past cycles when anti-incumbent fervor wasn't at such a fever pitch). So who will it fall to try to topple Steve from the political saddle? It appears it will be Evelyn Madrid Erhard, a Democratic native of Española in the northern district, but who has lived south for many decades and calls Las Cruces home. She is showing some moxy, if not denial of reality, as she launches her uphill battle against Steve:

I don't feel like I'm an underdog. I really feel he has backed himself into a corner because he hasn't listened to his constituents, and people see that. He's the one in trouble.

Madrid-Erhard, 56, says she "spent many years teaching communication, composition, and critical thinking to students at Doña Ana Community College and New Mexico State University. She was a small business owner for six years, selling folk art in a small storefront shop called the “Patchwork Cat.” Her husband Tom spent a full career as a tenured English professor at NMSU..."

We have two NM Dem congressional hopefuls who have Anglo and Hispanic surnames. the other is Michelle Lujan Grisham who is seeking the Dem nod for the ABQ congressional seat She recently reported that the powerful pro-choice women's group--EMILY's List--has taken the first step toward giving her candidacy a "full endorsement." She is on what is called "EMILY's List On The List Program."

What will they think of next? Well, let's see if it translates into badly needed campaign funds as Lujan Grisham contends it will. By the way, EMILY is an acronym for Early Money is Like Yeast.

And more on the Dems race for the ABQ US House seat. On the Eric Griego front:

Democrat Eric Griego announced his endorsement by the Communications Workers of America (CWA). The CWA endorsement was made by both the union’s state council comprising all of the local unions and the international union. The endorsement is significant because the union represents 6,000 members in New Mexico, including more than 4,000 in the First Congressional District, and is one of the largest unions within the AFL-CIO.

And from congressional hopefuland former Mayor Chavez, there's more endorsing:

Former Vice President, Democratic Presidential Candidate and U.S. Senator Walter Mondale endorsed Marty Chavez in his race to represent the First Congressional District of New Mexico in the House of Representatives.

“In times like these, our nation needs strong leaders with vision and the ability to follow through and get the hard work accomplished. I know Marty Chavez is that kind of leader and I’m with Marty 100%..."

KEEPING POSTED

We posted Alligator commentary on November 29 noting that New Mexico has a member of the US Postal Service Board of Governors--Republican attorney Mickey Barnett--but that he hasn't had much to say about the plans to close 54 rural post offices in the state. Dem US Senator Tom Udall appears to be filling the vacuum:

Fifteen Senators from around the country announced that, at their request, the U.S. Postal Service has voluntarily agreed to put in place a five-month moratorium on closing postal facilities, which would give Congress more time to enact postal reform legislation. During the moratorium, scheduled to end on May 15, 2012, the Postal Service will continue to study the impact of proposed closures...

Udall said:

I've stressed to the Postmaster General the real impact that post office closures will have on New Mexico communities. We need comprehensive reform that ensures the long-term stability of the Postal Service, while providing essential, quality service to every corner of New Mexico. I commend the Postmaster General for putting a moratorium on any further closures for the next few months...

The recession has been devastating for large rural swaths of New Mexico. Going slow on pulling the plug on federal services will spare them more pain--at least for the short-term.

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2011 Christmas Greetings

2011-12-24T18:36:00.005-07:00

Here's a pic we snapped of the Christmas tree at Rockefeller Center in New York City where we're spending the holidays. Right below it is the famous ice skating rink we've seen on TV for decades but had never visited in person until this year. What surprised us is how small it is compared to the large expanse it seems to be on your TV screen.

The Fifth Avenue crowds were large, but sales clerks along the famed shopping strip told us that though there were fewer buyers this year, they made up for it with large purchases from some of them. Is that the one percent we've been hearing so much about this year via the Occupy Wall Street movement? Well, we'll leave the political analysis for after the holidays.

We were concerned about possibly rough weather this time of year, but it turns out it is our usually sun-drenched New Mexico that was given Mother Nature's snowy one-two punch. Here in New York it is a decidedly sunny and brown Christmas, like the chestnuts roasting on an open fire as they are on all the street corner carts. Nevertheless it is a fulfilling Christmas as I hope it is for you, your friends and family.

From New York, Merry Christmas!

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Cheering Over The Economy--In Clovis, Plus: Merry Christmas, New Mexico

2011-12-23T00:49:00.009-07:00

How about some cheery news as we mark Christmas 2011? Clovis Mayor Gayla Brumfield has it for us:

I enjoy reading your blog every day and getting your take on what’s going on in New Mexico. Unfortunately when it comes to the economy, too often the news is bleak. As we head into the holidays, I thought your readers might appreciate hearing some good news

There are many exciting things happening in Clovis . We are not only weathering the economic downturn, but...have found a way to thrive during it. We finalized an agreement with a beauty supply manufacturing company, creating up to 350 jobs. It’s just the latest recent business expansion, including the $100 million expansion of Southwest Cheese, now the largest cheddar cheese plant in the world.

While speaking with the beauty supply company’s CEO about his decision to move to Clovis, he credited our business-friendly environment...In fact, the past few months have been a whirlwind of groundbreakings and ribbon cuttings. Just a few include: the renovation of historic Hotel Clovis, new walking trails, improvements to the youth recreation building, our first dog park, and a new splash park. The best part—we’ve done it all without raising taxes.

I bring this to your readers’ attention because we believe the success of Clovis, or any other New Mexico community for that matter, is ultimately good for the State of New Mexico.

Thanks for that Xmas cheer, Mayor. It reinforces our belief that New Mexico is not strangling under the pressure of too high taxes or over regulation.

The city of Clovis, however, did approve a $3 million interest-free forgivable loan to lure the beauty supply company. And the $12.8 million renovation of Hotel Clovis into apartments is backed by $10.5 million worth of federal tax credits from the state's mortgage finance authority.

Prudent private sector-government partnerships are essential to getting New Mexico moving again.

P.S.

One other note on Clovis from Mayor Brumfield:

The driving factor behind our growth is the new mission at Cannon Air Base. We're the Western home of AF Special Operations--our base has almost doubled in size. What a blessing that has been.

And that reinforces the undeniable importance of Federal national defense funding here and how it so often sparks private business.

CHRISTMAS 2011

Merry Christmas!

Here's our annual greeting card, along with our thanks to you and our advertisers for being with us throughout the year.

Reporting to you this Christmas week from New York City and nearby Rockefeller Plaza, I'm Joe Monahan. (That's your cue, Frank)....

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Gary Johnson Puts Coal in R's Xmas Stocking; His 3rd Party Run Could Cost Them NM Prez Contest; The Early Outlook

2011-12-22T00:54:00.048-07:00

With his decision to drop out of the GOP contest and run as the Libertarian Party's presidential candidate, former NM Governor Gary Johnson now represents a dire threat to the New Mexico Republican Party and its hopes for defeating President Obama here next November. And there appears to be little they can do about it.

Assuming Gary gets the Libertarian nomination, veteran political operative Steve Cabiedes, experienced in third party politics, says his votes will come right out of the R's hide:

Disgruntled Tea party types will unite under his banner. He will take some Dem votes, but it is the R's who will suffer. It will make Obama's path to victory there much, much smoother.

He means much smoother to capture our state's crucial five electoral votes. Not that Obama isn't already favored to take them, but with Johnson in the race he becomes a heavy favorite and that decreases the pressure on his campaign here.

Johnson will make his formal announcement that he is dumping the Republican Party at a Dec. 28th Santa Fe news conference. It's not that big a leap for Gary whose stance in favor of drug legalization and minimalist government has always endeared him to the party.

The Politico summed up the dire numbers facing NM R's if Gary is the Libs nominee:

According to a Public Policy Polling survey of New Mexico conducted Dec. 10-12, Johnson as a Libertarian candidate could impact the vote in his home state. PPP found Johnson would draw between 26 and 30 percent of GOP votes, between 12 and 16 percent of Democratic votes and win independents, in a race with either Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich as the GOP nominee. Johnson on the ballot would help Obama win New Mexico, typically a swing state, by a 17-point margin, PPP found.

Politics is an unpredictable beast. The R's thought that the recently disclosed sex scandal investigation involving former Dem Governor Big Bill would play right into their hands next year, but it turns out one of their own former Governors is set to define this race and consign big Bill's troubles to relative oblivion.

Cabiedes says Johnson and the Libertarians have some spade work to do if he is to get on the New Mexico ballot. He says it appears the Libs would need to gather about 3,000 petition signatures to requalify as a recognized minor party and that Johnson would need about 6,000 petition signatures from any registered voters to qualify for the ballot. That should not be much of a problem, analyses Cabiedes.The petition deadline for Johnson is June 26 and April 3 for the Libertarian Party petitions.

JOHNSON OUTLOOK

Just what percentage could you expect Johnson to get on Election night 2012? He's drawing 50% in a hypothetical race, but once he becomes a third party candidate history shows that number will drop dramatically. And we go back in history for a race involving Johnson that may supply a clue.

In the 1994 governor's race former Democratic Lt. Governor Roberto Mondragon abandoned the Dems and ran as the Green Party nominee. He garnered 10% of the vote. Democrat incumbent Bruce King scored 40% and then-Republican Gary Johnson claimed the title with 50%.

Could Johnson trade places with Roberto in 2012 and come with that 10% number. We think that is in the ballpark, and that's a giant lump of coal in the Christmas stockings of New Mexican Republicans.

THE LITTLE THINGS

We understand that it's often the little things that get your goat. For example, in our coverage Monday of the latest federal probe of Big Bill we used the term "paint the jury" instead of the standard "taint the jury." David Collins comes with the critique:

I'm certain the phrase you're looking for is "taint the jury" -- or more correctly "taint the jury pool."

The concept of tainting a jury pool is widely recognized among trial attorneys. It's the main reason for pre-trial gag orders. It's the reason trials are sometimes moved away from the jurisdiction where an alleged crime occurred--pre-trial news coverage sometimes "taints the jury pool."

On Google, "taint the jury" returns 338,000 results. "Paint the jury" returns one percent as many -- 3,390. Your column is the second and third result. None of the other top results use the phrase in the context used in the column. Most of those 3,390 results find the phrase in concatenations of two sentences (e.g. "contain a lead hazard, chipping and peeling paint. The jury returned the defense verdict").

I can promise you, any attorney reading the site will have the same reaction to the phrase "paint the jury." If it were me, I'd change the phrase to "taint the jury" which I'm 99 percent certain is the phrase you intended to quote those "Sympathizers of Big Bill" as having said. I appreciate your work.

Well done, David. Actually, one of our sources on the story used the phrase "paint the jury" or at least that's what we thought we heard. It sounded like a cool variation on "taint the jury" so we went with it. But your research shows no such phrase so we are back to "taint the jury."

Copy editors are always welcome around here, but the pay is about what the elves at the North Pole are getting this week.

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Polls All Over Map On Susana Approval; We Explain, Plus: Some Tax Talk And The Amazon Grinch

2011-12-21T00:44:00.028-07:00

The polls for Governor Martinez are as jumpy as a six year old waiting to spy Santa Claus drinking his cookies and milk. No sooner had the state GOP come with news that a poll has Susana scoring a 65% approval rating then the Dem leaning PPP survey says, nope, she's only at 50% approval:

Susana Martinez continues to have some of the most impressive approval numbers in the country. We find 50% of voters approving of her to 39% who disapprove. She's only of only 11 Governors PPP has found this year with an approval at 50% or higher, and she's the most popular out of the new Republican Governors elected last fall that we've polled on.

The poll the GOP likes was done by Public Opinion Strategies where Nicole McCleskey, wife of influential Susana political adviser Jay McCleskey, works. It appears there's reason to take both surveys with a grain of salt.

The main point is that Martinez is at or above the critical 50% level. If you split the difference between the two surveys, she scores about a 57% approval rating. In a Democratic state and after one year in office, that's pretty solid. The catch? She has three long years to go and the baggage is starting to pile up. Like this.....

AS EXPECTED

No surprises when it came to final state approval of that controversial 25 year lease for the Downs at ABQ at NM Expo. The state Board of Finance--controlled by the Guv--gave its unanimous approval to the lease, which has GOP politics all over it--as well as some Dem politics, too. See our Tuesday blog for the exclusive Alligator details.

TAX TALK

Forgive us for talking taxes while you trim the tree, but we have a legislative session coming up in which the Guv wants to talk tax reform. We agree with her that we should cut the job killing Gross Receipts tax, but we urge replace the revenue with a boost in our ultra-low capital gains tax (the one you pay on stock and bond profits) as well as a boost in the very top state income tax rate that was slashed too much in the boom years. Richard Anklam, president of the NM Tax Research Institute, comes with his reaction:

You mentioned that state capital gains rate was slashed 50%. That’s actually an understatement. We used to tax capital gains at the same rate as ordinary income, which before the cuts, topped out at 8.2%, But when we reduced the top marginal rate to 4.9%, the rate applied to capital gains by default and we cut them both by approximately 40%. We simultaneously phased-in the capital gains deduction to 50%, meaning relative to the old highest marginal rate of 8.2% on capital gains, we’ve reduced it to 2.45% (50% of 4.9%). That’s more like a 70% reduction.

While I personally see some merit in having a personal income tax rate in line with the states around us, our capital gains treatment is more generous by far than our neighbors...I doubt seriously the very low rates we’re looking at now..drive investment behavior much at all.
You’re right about our ever higher Gross Receipts tax rates being bad for business and I’m glad you beat that drum.

Pyramiding of tax and broader taxation of business inputs give our businesses a real competitive disadvantage, and it’s insidious in that much of it is hidden. How can our local businesses pay their workers less, pay cheaper rent, and still not compete with out of state businesses, necessitating state bidding preferences and the like? There’s at least one of your answers. I hate political platitudes but it is a “job killer.” The problem is it’s expensive to fix.

Appreciate that insight, Richard.

Governor Martinez has tried to stop the tax debate dead in its tracks by ruling out any tax increases whatsoever (even if they are revenue neutral) during her four year term. But the shaky economic prospects for this state beg for a vigorous marketplace of ideas--even if the Fourth Floor and the Department of Finance and Administration would like to surround themselves with an ideological moat.

AMAZON GRINCH?

And you have to empathize with New Mexican businesses as they compete for shoppers in this final frenzied week before Christmas:

The New Mexico Green Chamber of Commerce is calling on Amazon.com to drop its PriceCheck application, which rewards customers that go into a local store, scan products they like, walk out and get a $5 discount. The holiday season is a vital season for local businesses. Local retailers employ New Mexicans, build a quality inventory and give back to our community. They should not be undercut by questionable business practices from out-of-state retailers.

FROM SANTA FE

A Christmas present for a state senator:

Senator Richard C. Martinez, D-Española, was recently elected first vice president of the National Hispanic Caucus of State Legislators (NHCSL) for a two-year term, Senate President Pro Tempore Timothy Z. Jennings announced.

...The National Hispanic Caucus of State Legislators is an interesting organization that discusses all of the issues that affect Hispanics, including child care, criminal justice, economics and jobs. We then take recommendations to our respective legislatures, which are frequently developed into bills for the legislative session," Martinez said.

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Down And Dirty Downs Deal? State Panel Set To Approve It Today, But Not Before Alligators Get In Final Licks, Plus: Obama NM Numbers

2011-12-20T00:54:00.026-07:00

What's been referred to here as the Down and dirty Downs deal is expected to be rubber-stamped by a state panel today--a panel that is chaired by Governor Martinez who is taking her first major ethical hits over how and why a 25 year lease for the Downs at ABQ was approved on a 4 to 3 vote by the State Fair Commission. The agreement allows the Downs to locate a new and lucrative casino on the Expo grounds in central ABQ.

We've been covering the machinations on this deal, pointing out that it includes many of the major players in state GOP politics. As the state Board of Finance--whose membership Susana controls--prepares to vote today, one of our Alligators lays out the connections in detail and has insider info you won't get anywhere else:

The insider sleaze surrounding the Downs lease and casino reeks of the cronyism, corruption and pay to play politics that is usually associated with Gov/ Martinez's predecessor but in this case, will receive Martinez's personal stamp of approval with her vote today.

...It's the names the public doesn't know that matter. Paul Blanchard, Pat Rogers, and Dan Mourning aren't household names. But former Sheriff and Chief Public Safety Officer Darren White is. And Martinez political advisor Jay McCleskey should be.

Start with Blanchard, an owner of the Downs. Blanchard was a close personal friend of Gov. Bill Richardson's and a huge campaign contributor. In the governor's race Blanchard contributed $50,000 to Diane Denish and $70,000 to Susana Martinez. This despite the fact Blanchard is hundreds of thousands (if not millions) behind on his payments to the state with the lease he currently holds.

After Martinez's election, Blanchard hired attorney and NM Republican National Committeeman Pat Rogers to represent the Downs. Rogers was also a contributor to the Martinez campaign and a member of her transition team.

Blanchard's smartest political move, however, may have been hiring Darren White as a "consultant" on the lease renewal after White, ABQ's former Chief Public Safety Officer resigned. White was a supporter of Martinez's in the GOP primary, showing up prominently in mailings and TV ads. White is also close personal friends with Martinez consultant McCleskey and Dan Mourning, the interim Expo manager and Martinez appointee who negotiated the Downs casino lease.

No one knows how much Blanchard is paying Rogers or White, or if he has any other politically connected individuals on the Downs payroll. The financial relationship with White is particularly germane; not just because of White's relationship with McCleskey and Mourning but because Blanchard hired White in the middle of the Request for Proposals (RFP) process.

The common link is McCleskey, who counts Albuquerque Mayor Berry as a client along with Governor Martinez. Two of the three members of the Downs evaluation committee have worked for Berry. The other one hired McCleskey to run "Citizens for Greater Albuquerque" during the 2003 city elections.

Did these insider connections result in the Downs casino lease being shoved through at what was supposed to be a State Fair Commission "workshop"? They certainly call into question Martinez's claim this lease was "competitively bid." After all, Team Blanchard only had one other competitor for the Downs lease. And even though their proposal would have paid the state $1 million dollars a year more in the first year of the lease alone, for some reason Blanchard won.

Were the machinations behind the lease award "bold"? In the worst sense of the word they were. Did they represent "change"? Not in the slightest.

EVEN MORE

And there's more. State Fair Commissioner Charlotte Rode, a Republican, objected to the controversial Downs deal and comes with this missive addressed to her fellow commissioners urging the state to reject the Downs deal:

I have seen strong evidence of corruption that concerns me and is sure to bring legal challenges to the state should you decide to rubber stamp this lease. Being ill-advised does not release us from our responsibility to the taxpayers of NM. Those concerned with good government must cast their vote based on a thorough understanding of the facts, not information they are spoon fed by lobbyist or relationships with those whom have influence over their lives.

As the Governor is the only representative of the people involved in this entire process and she won her election by taking a stand against corruption and promising transparency, then we in turn, should also live up to that promise. If you know the facts, you could not in good conscience vote to approve this lease. The people of NM and the legal powers that be are watching. I urge you to postpone this vote until the evidence of corruption can be fully vetted by an independent inquiry...

Throughout this year, the Downs and the State have acted as a team. A partnership with no delineation between Lessee and lessor, State and contractor/Bidder. It is unethical at the very least and likely illegal. Please consider the facts before you cast your vote.

It's not just the R's wheeling and dealing on the Downs. Dem House Speaker Ben Lujan says the deal is fine with him and he wants state approval. All indications are he and Susana will get it today.

NO DAMAGE

The Downs dealing and other controversies apparently aren't taking any toll on the Guv's popularity. The state GOP released a poll from Republican polling firm POS that shows Susana's approval rating is sky high:

Governor Martinez has a 65% approval/29% disapproval rating for her job handling. The Governor’s approval rating has actually improved over the course of the year, from 59% approval in March to 64% approval in August to 65% in the current survey. Among Republicans, Martinez holds a 90% approve/7% disapprove rating; among Independents, 62% approve and 29% disapprove, and; among Democrats, Martinez is at 49% approve/44% disapprove...

The state GOP attacked the Dem oriented PPP poll this week that indicated the Senate seat here is "Lean Dem." You won't hear them questioning any bias in their own survey. The poll was conducted last week.

WHAT PROBE?

Big Bill, tracked down at the Roundhouse where he was giving satellite interviews on North Korea, wished reporters "Merry Christmas" when asked about that sexsational Federal grand jury investigation we blogged about in detail Monday. He offered no further comment. We're sure the hearts of the scribes were warmed by the seasonal greetings, but the question is how the former Guv can have a happy holiday season with what is hanging over his head.

OBAMA CONDITION

The Dem oriented PPP poll has Obama at 49% approval in New Mexico (46% disapprove). We would characterize that as being in fairly good shape for re-election here. One number is both good news and bad--his 72% approval rating among Dems. That is too low, but he has a good chance of improving it. If he does only a bit, he pushes through the critical 50% level (although he might already be there given the poll's margin of error).

Hispanics and Native Americans are important for Obama in NM. He is tapping into that support early. For example:

The All Indian Pueblo Council (AIPC), a consortium of 19 Pueblos of New Mexico and one Pueblo in Texas, announced its endorsement of President Barack Obama for re-election. Obama for America National Campaign Manager Jim Messina accepted the endorsement at a ceremony on the Sandia Pueblo in New Mexico, followed by a meeting with tribal leaders.

The Prez handily dispatches all the major GOP candidates in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups, breaching the 50% level against all of them.

Like we said, for all his problems Obama starts out here with reason for optimism.

REDFORD FOR CHAVEZ

"Who needs the Sierra Club," ABQ Dem congressional candidate Marty Chavez might ask. The powerful enviro group came with an early endorsement of Eric Griego, one of Chavez's rivals for the Dem nomination, but Marty answers with a nod for his candidacy from none other than famed actor and enviro Robert Redford:

Marty Chavez is a 21st Century thinker who will encourage creative solutions and lead through innovative problem solving. These are challenging and complicated times and never have these approaches been more pertinent to the issues we face as a nation. In order to meet the needs of the next generation of Americans we have to elect leaders who aren’t afraid to break the mold of conventional thinking in their representation of the public interest..

It doesn't hurt that Redford has long ties to New Mexico and has been a friend to the state and its people. It might not match the fund-raising and grassroots power of the Sierra Club, but the Redford endorsement does show that Chavez isn't going to give Griego too much rope.

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More Details On Feds Case Against Big Bill; Trying To "Taint A Jury?" Plus: The Great Bear Still Hunts; His Tracks In Rio Rancho And On APS

2011-12-19T00:54:00.017-07:00

Sympathizers of Big Bill say all those leaks from the Federal grand jury investigating the former NM governor are politically motivated and destined to "taint the jury" in the event Richardson is indicted for allegedly having a sexual relationship with a state worker and arranging to have her paid off with $250,000 in hush money.

Fair or unfair, the former Guv, a master of the power play, finds the tables have been turned on him. He has been forced into a defensive silence as the leaks--more like a Niagara waterfall--continue unabated. And, of course, the Alligators get the details from the insiders that you've been waiting for. Here's what they are telling us:

--The woman who accuses Richardson of coercing into having a sexual affair started in state government at a salary of about $12 an hour. She was later hired to an exempt position for about $65,000. Exempt employees serve at the pleasure of the Governor.

--The "affair" the ex-Guv allegedly had with her was brief--lasting a month or two. She ran into trouble when she was arrested for DWI and apparently lost her job as a result. Her entreaties for help from Richardson went unanswered and that's when she threatened to go to the press, specifically Hustler Magazine.

--It was 2007 and at the time Richardson was seeking the Dem presidential nomination. Her threats, our insiders say, put the wheels in motion for a $250,000 payment that was routed to her lawyer from a bank in Mexico. A key question is where that money came from. If it can be determined it was campaign money, Richardson would be in very legal hot water.

--Another key question: What Richardson advisers and/or attorneys arranged for the money transfer, if there was indeed one? Several Richardson associates have been granted immunity in exchange for their grand jury testimony, according to various media reports.

--The woman in question is in her late thirties and lives in ABQ. She divorced her husband after the Richardson affair blaming it, in part, for the break-up. She has since remarried, lives in ABQ and is said to be nine months pregnant by her new husband.

--The ABQ Journal--and we assume other media outlets--are aware of the woman's name but have refrained from publishing it because she asserts she is the victim of sexual harassment.

And there you have it with the caveat that these are anonymous sources, but ones with good track records for reliability.

And then there's apparently that other Federal grand jury investigation into this:

Daskalos family members and businesses contributed at least $130,000 to Gov. Bill Richardson's re-election campaign several months after state transportation officials helped the family get rare direct access to Paseo del Norte for a shopping-center project.

Jimmy Daskalos was spotted last week going into the grand jury room as was Amanda Cooper, a longtime political consultant to Big Bill and the step-daughter of Dem US Senator Tom Udall. Do you think Tom is reading each and every press clipping on this case? You betcha.

DECONSTRUCTING BILL

The rapid deconstruction of Bill Richardson from a top form political player and effective Governor into a skirt-chasing sleaze may be more of a personal tragedy for him than an event of overriding political importance. Or at least that's the hope in elite circles of the New Mexican Democratic Party.

Because Richardson no longer holds power and his popularity has already sunk below 30 percent in at least one opinion poll, top Dems don't see his legal problems haunting them much in election year 2012. Still, there are possible angles for the R's.

Foremost, is the ties Dem US Senate candidate and US Rep. Martin Heinrich has to Richardson. He was hired by Bill to become the state's natural resources trustee. R's could try to stretch that relationship into guilt by association.

ABQ Dem congressional candidate and State Senator Eric Griego was also given a job by Richardson. He worked for the state economic development department. And former Mayor Chavez, also seeking the Dem congressional nod, has long established ties to Bill, The other candidate--Michelle Lujan Grisham--was hired as a cabinet secretary for Richardson. She ended that stint on poor terms with Bill.

THE GREAT BEAR

The Great Bear Market continues to ravage Rio Rancho--home to the Late Great Housing Bubble:

...Hundreds of empty homes are neglected and run down...Now, the city is taking action to force the owners of the foreclosed properties, namely banks, to clean up the mess. There are more than 600 foreclosed properties all over Rio Rancho and most of them are owned by banks of financial institutions....The City Council passed an ordinance that mandates all foreclosed properties must be registered, inspected and maintained regularly.

It will be years (decades?) before Rio Rancho returns to anywhere the growth rate it experienced in the go-go years.

And look at this: ABQ Public Schools can't figure out why there are 1,000 fewer students enrolled this year. Some think it could be the first sign of a population retrenchment or stagnation in the state's largest city brought about by...you guessed it...The Great Bear Market:

Albuquerque Public Schools is looking at a net loss of just over 1,000 students, and that could mean lopping off more millions from a budget that has already been shrinking in the Great Recession. So far, nobody really knows where the 1,013 students went. They are not showing up in charter school enrollment. APS is checking with other school districts to see if families have moved to Rio Rancho, or Los Lunas, or some other towns.

The epic economic downturn has called into question the state slogan, "It grows as it goes." How much growth will there really be here in the future? We seem to finally be adding some jobs after three years of losing them, but a new economic boom here seems as distant as the Milky Way.

THE FEDS AND US

The economic engine of the state--federal spending--continues to chug along--at least until October of 2012. Senators Bingaman and Udall pronounced themselves satisfied with the funding for Sandia and Los Alamos Labs contained in a big spending bill that has now passed the Congress and keeps the government funded for the next nine months.

Los Alamos does take a $100 million hit as funding for a controversial construction project that has been called into question, but then there is a 5% increase in overall funding for the National Nuclear Security Administration through which the Labs are funded. There was earlier talk of an even larger increase.

Still, this is pretty good news that the Senators bring and on which Senator Bingaman will conclude his political career next year. As for what lurks beyond 2012, well that's when get things murky. We will lose Bingaman's seniority and there may be continued pressure on overall federal spending that could impact the state.

THE BOTTOM LINES

We received word late Sunday of the passing of Barbara Wold, a founder of the well-known liberal Web site Democracy for New Mexico. She had been suffering from cancer. ABQ Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich issued this statement:

I was deeply saddened to learn of Democracy for New Mexico co-founder Barb Wold's passing. We lost a champion of worthy causes and a friend to so many--including myself. Her spirit and fierce commitment to making our community better will be sorely missed. Julie and I will continue to keep her family and life partner, MaryEllen Broderick, in our thoughts and prayers.

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