Trump in ABQ (Moore, Journal)

Former President Donald Trump made a concerted bid for the state's Hispanic vote Thursday afternoon as he roused a crowd of several thousand at an ABQ rally, declaring, "I love Hispanics! The crowd, gathered on a tarmac at CSI Aviation near the Sunport, roared their approval. 

Trump declared: 

I’m here for one very simple reason. I like you very much, and it’s good for my credentials with the Hispanic or Latino community. New Mexico, look, don’t make me waste a whole damn half a day here,” he continued. “You know, we could be nice to each other, or we can talk turkey. Let’s talk turkey. I love the Hispanics. I love them. I love Hispanics. 

He also said that Hispanics are “entrepreneurial as hell and work their asses off.”

Trump, coming off of an embarrassing Sunday rally in New York where Puerto Ricans and Hispanics were disparaged by guest speakers, had rally goers take a poll on whether Hispanics preferred being called Latino. Hispanics won big with a round of applause and cheering.

The former president's speech, as usual for these events, went for nearly 90 minutes. He repeatedly cited problems at the border as a chief reason for New Mexicans to vote for him even as he overstated the problems the state is having by claiming that our border issues are worse than any other state. 

Trump is far behind VP Harris in the New Mexico polling and we are no longer a swing state but a person associated with the campaign said:  

With the former president folding the stops into respective trips to the swing states of Nevada and Arizona on Friday, and to North Carolina on Saturday, it “doesn’t cost a lot” to land the plane in New Mexico and Virginia, said a person familiar with the campaign’s strategy, granted anonymity to speak openly about the visitDoing so will offer an “adrenaline blast” to Trump supporters in those states, while creating at least a day’s worth of news there right before ballots are cast Tuesday.

GOP consultant Bob Cornelius said the visit "could help Trump turn out votes in southern areas of the state." 

Towards the end of his talk Trump gave a shout-out to GOP US Senate hopeful Nella Domenici, congressional candidate Yvette Herrell, former Governor Susana Martinez as well as NMGOP Chairman Steve Pearce.  

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

What's that New Mexico Democrats? You say you're not getting Halloween shivers up and down your spines from this imposing picture of Trump even though he's only hours away from touching down for his noon ABQ rally?

Well, you're a brave bunch but we bet a few D's watching a certain congressional race are feeling the fear today. 

As for the NMGOP, they're trying to scare their opponents by going door-to-door disguised as pro-Trump political analysts and asking that votes be placed in their trick or treat bags. 

It turns out it's mostly a trick. 

Let's take a look at what the NMGOP is saying at voters' doorsteps:

New Mexico has been trending red in recent polling, leading to pollsters now labeling the state a toss-up. 

No, it has not been trending red. The polls have VP Harris beating Trump here 50 to 41 percent. No high-quality surveys show the race to be anywhere near being a toss-up.

The GOP:

Between Trump gaining strong support from Hispanic voters and the top issues for New Mexicans being the economy and the border, New Mexico is now positioned as a key battleground state. 

Some of that is true. Trump is polling near historic highs here among Hispanics, garnering 41 percent support in the Journal survey. If he hits that mark next Tuesday with Hispanic voters it would apparently be a modern day record for a GOP prez hopeful. And the economy and border are big issues for the overall electorate. However, we are currently not and have not been a "battleground state" since 2008. 

More GOP fright for the Dems:

President Trump is neck and neck with Harris in our state. His visit could ignite the spark needed to motivate our voters to hit the polls to flip New Mexico red. 

Again there is no good evidence at all that the race here is neck and neck. However Trump's visit could "ignite" some support for GOP southern congressional district candidate Yvette Herrell who needs more votes in ABQ's South Valley and Westside if she is to upset Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez. 

Finally, in the spirit of Halloween and one last try to scare the dickens out of the Harris backers, here's a final, unfiltered point from the R's:

New Mexicans are not happy with the state of the economy and the open border, and Kamala Harris represents more of the same failed policies. . . President Trump. . . wants to eliminate taxes on Social Security, tipped wages, and overtime. He will usher in true American energy independence, lowering gas prices and bringing down inflation. He will safeguard our daughters’ opportunities by ensuring they are not forced to compete against men and have men in their locker rooms.

So that's the big Boo! from the GOP to the Dems today. 

(Hey, is that MLG shaking like a leaf over there?)

THE VISIT 

The kerfuffle over parking for the Trump visit that took place between the GOP and the State Land Office has been resolved and the rally is on. Details for those going today:

Parking will be available in multiple locations off-site from the venue with shuttles providing transportation to the venue. Uber, Lyft, and ride-share services are encouraged. Ride-share drop-off location is at 2327 Clark Carr Road SE.

Parking locations: a private lot at 5441 Turing Drive SE; a lot near the Albuquerque International Sunport at 1501 Aircraft Ave. SE; and a lot at Montage at Mesa del Sol, 2702 Stryker Road SE. 

Parking will open at 5:00 a.m. Shuttles begin operating at 5:30 a.m. and doors at the event venue, CSI Aviation, open at 8 a.m. Event programming will begin promptly at 10 a.m., and remarks will begin at noon.

We'll update the blog this afternoon following Trump's ABQ speech.

JERRY SANDEL 

We've received word of the death of Jerry Sandel, a conservative Democrat from the Farmington area who became a state capitol powerhouse during his 30 years in office from 1971 to 2000. 

Sandel made a fortune in the oil and gas business and was known for his financial acumen during his time in Santa Fe. Details of his passing were not immediately available. 

Sandel was 82.

OUR ELECTION COVERAGE

It's almost time for our special election coverage on public radio KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com. 

We're as excited to get going as we were when we started the tradition for the station back in 1988 and even when we did our very first radio election night coverage in 1974. Yikes!

We're back with our live pre-game show this year and that will tip off at 5 p.m. Monday with top experts like Dem state Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil and veteran ABQ Journal capitol reporter Dan Boyd and others. 

Then it's on to Election Night with a 6:30 p.m. start for live, continuous coverage all night long. Among the experts at our table will be longtime Republican consultant Jamie Estrada who is on those legislative races like white on rice.

We'll have more details of our coverage next week.

KANW is once again where it's at for the inside story of Election Night with up to the minute results, the best expert analysis and the most fun. As always, we invite you to join us and thank you for doing so.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

If turnout is similar to that of 2020 then nearly half the votes that will be cast in Election '24 are in the bank. 

The SOS reports that through Monday 444,521 New Mexicans have made their voices heard by voting absentee or at early voting locations. 

If the vote total for this year's presidential race matches the roughly 924,000 who turned out for the 2020 contest then 48 percent of the total vote is already in. 

Early voting continues to grow in popularity although it is not expected to match the early turnout of 2020 which was inflated by the Covid outbreak. 

Still, most votes will be cast before the actual election day of November 5 signifying voter comfort with the option as well as the efficiency implementing it by Secretary of State Toulouse Oliver and Bernalillo County Clerk Linda Stover and her colleagues across the state.   

The partisan lean in the early ballots is 48 percent Democratic, 37 Republican and 15 percent independents and others. That's in line with recent patterns and signals that races where large polling leads are evident are not going to turn into upsets.

Those include the presidential contest going to VP Harris, Sen. Heinrich winning re-election as well as US Reps. Stansbury and Leger Fernandez.

The race between Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez and Republican Yvette Herrell remains a lean Democratic contest but still with the possibility of an upset. Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta explains:

Joe, Herrell's last stand is precincts in the South Valley of ABQ and westside. She needs to get close to Gabe there--tie him or come within a couple of points--or else the race is his. We will be able to tell from the early vote results in Bernalillo county whether this race takes us through the night or is put to bed early.

Those Dem-leaning BernCo precincts make up about 25 percent of the total vote in the 2nd District. Another 25 percent come from Dem dominated Dona Ana county where Vasquez served as a Las Cruces city councilor. 

TRUMP HERE TOMORROW

Maybe the Halloween Trump visit will help Herrell pop the turnout in BernCo? But disparaging comments made about Puerto Rico and Hispanics by a comedian at Trump's Sunday Madison Square Garden rally raised questions about his Hispanic support going forward.

Trump will rally the faithful at a noon rally tomorrow. ABQ airport officials say

The Albuquerque International Sunport received confirmation from the Republican Party of New Mexico that former President Trump will be holding a rally at CSI Aviation, a Fixed Based Operator (FBO) located south of the main terminal. Please note: The event will not be held at the Sunport’s main terminal. The Sunport anticipates no impacts to commercial flight operations for this event. . . The Isleta Amphitheatre, located at 5601 University Blvd SE, will be providing shuttles from their parking lot to CSI Aviation. 

CSI is owned by former NM GOP Chairman Allen Weh, a major GOP donor, and a longtime contractor for the federal government. 

DEM TRUMP REACT

State Dems are letting loose with the vitriol over the Trump visit to Blue New Mexico. MLG fires this volley:

I'm disappointed that Donald Trump is bringing his cruel, racist schtick to New Mexico — home to the nation's largest percentage of Hispanic residents — just days after his buddy called our Puerto Rican brothers and sisters 'garbage' at a campaign rally in New York. . .

Trump has said he did not know the comedian who made the remarks about Puerto Rico. (MLG stands to get a new job if VP Harris is elected.)

State Dems brought GOP US Senate candidate Nella Domenici into the fray:

After months of dodging questions, Nella Domenici has finally made her alliance clear: she will stand beside former President and convicted felon Donald Trump at his rally in Albuquerque this Thursday. Nella’s journey from self-proclaimed “moderate” and “independent thinker” to MAGA devotee has been swift and decisive. For a candidate who once publicly insisted she would not endorse Trump or seek his approval, her sharp right turn raises important questions about where she truly stands. 

Do you get the sense that the Dems are trying to run up the score against Nella? They already have her on the canvas, but with Heinrich still eyeing a possible '26 Guv run the plan appears to be to try to beat her by 10 points or more. 

Heinrich's high mark in a Senate election is 54 percent. The base GOP vote is 45 percent but Domenici just recently moved to 40 percent in the latest polling.

CONVENTION CENTER, REALLY?

2016 ABQ Trump Rally (NYT)

What can we add to the dispute over whether the Trump campaign was seriously interested in renting the ABQ Convention Center for their rally tomorrow but the city said it wasn't available because of a water line repair in progress?

Well, after a near riot at the 2016 Trump ABQ Convention Center rally (which yours truly walked home from through smoke-filled air) was this really a serious inquiry? A security nightmare again? 

And, considering Trump is on a tight schedule to get to Nevada following his ABQ stop were they really thinking about hauling him downtown and back?  Or were they routinely checking a variety of possible rally locations as they do as a matter of course?

Anyway, GOP Councilor Dan Lewis can call off the dogs he sicced on Dem Mayor Keller over the bizarre flap and the Mayor can give up on trying to collect money he says the city is owed by the Trump campaign for a past visit. They've said enough.

By the way, we reported a number of months ago that Lewis had told us he will not seek the mayor's office next year when Keller seeks a third term. Lewis lost to Keller in the '17 mayoral contest.

SAME DAY VOTING

A new twist in state elections is the ability to register to vote and cast your ballot on the same day. Common Cause reports it's an option that is being taken advantage of:

You can now register and vote on the same day during the early voting period or on election day. Previously, voter registration ended weeks before the election and if you weren’t registered you were out of luck. In the current election, 9,280 New Mexicans have utilized this option as of Monday Oct. 28

TWO DOCS

There are two medical doctors in the state legislature--not only one as we first blogged Tuesday. Republican Senator Greg Shcmedes, a doctor, is still in the Senate although he is not seeking re-election to his East Mountain ABQ area seat and will depart in January. If ABQ Dem Senator Martin Hickey, the focus of our Tuesday report, is re-elected he will be the sole MD in the Legislature. Still no doctor in the House, though.

Be sure to join us for our traditional Election Night coverage on public radio KANW 89.1 FM  and kanw.com starting at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday and for our pre-game show Monday, November 4 at 5 p.m. 

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

There's no doctors in the House but there are two in the state Senate and one of them is working to come up with just the right prescription to fend off an unexpectedly strong challenge from his Republican opponent. 

Dr. Martin Hickey is seeking a second four year term from Senate District 20 in ABQ's far NE Heights. 

Republican engineer Wayne Yevoli is his foe, running on an anti-crime platform and with the help of an outside PAC calling Hickey a "phony" and a friend of "Big Pharma."

One of their mailers declares:  

Martin Hickey claims to be a doctor in slick TV ads and mailers. In reality, he has spent the last thirty years as a hospital and insurance executive. 

Hickey's campaign answers that Yevoli is an anti-abortion zealot and an unabashed backer of MAGA.

The race popped up on the radar when recent insider polling showed Hickey below 50 percent---getting 48 to Yevoli's 43. 

That conceivably puts the race in play with Hickey still having a clear edge, but it was only four years ago that Hickey took over the seat from longtime GOP Senator Bill Payne.

An ace in the hole for Hickey, a former CEO and Chief Medical Officer for Lovelace Health Systems, is the Democratic performance of the district which is 53 percent. 

Hickey is working furiously to bring himself up to that level, repeatedly mailing the district and cutting a digital TV ad touting his 46 years as a medical doctor. 

The other medial doctor in the Senate is Republican Greg Schmedes who is not seeking re-election. 

ATTACK PAC

The most strident attacks on Hickey are coming from the Our Values PAC financed mainly by oil money, including oil giant Chevron and longtime GOP activist and Roswell oil magnate Mark Murphy. 

They cite Senate Bill 135 in particular as a reason for dumping the doctor. The measure passed the Senate 38-2 and was signed by the Governor. Hickey and GOP Senator Mark Moores were the two no votes:  

SB 135 would ensure doctors can ask health insurers to cover medications without the patient having to first try a cheaper version, a strategy insurers use to save money called “step therapy.” The bill adds medications approved for treating substance use disorder, autoimmune disorders, behavioral health conditions and cancer to the list of drugs that cannot be subject to step therapy or prior authorization requirements. . .Hickey said he supported the bill but it could lead to more complications and drug-to-drug interactions. 

Thus the nickname "Heartless Hickey" coined by the PAC. 

Yevoli's baggage appears limited but with abortion and MAGA the Dems don't need a smoking gun.

Also, the ABQ Journal, very often Republican in their editorial endorsements, failed to endorse Yevoli and gave the nod to Hickey. 

Yevoli's background:

I am a Professional Engineer and own a small engineering firm in Albuquerque. I have over thirty-seven years of engineering and design experience, including design from conception through construction document preparation and observation My specific areas of expertise include heating and cooling systems.

Yevoli, who bills himself as a "political outsider," is a good fit for Republicans and independents in the district who are still settling in with Democrat Hickey.  

His fate in large part will depend on enthusiasm for Trump and Dems getting the blue flu and refusing the doctor's orders by not voting because of those negative hits.

The Dems are not taking any chances. The money race in the district has Hickey raising $272,000 (including a $24,000 personal loan) and Yevoli $115,000. But the Republican is getting that PAC support to help make up the difference.

We look forward to bringing you the results of this intense battle and all the others when we take to the microphones of KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com on Election Night for our wall-to-wall coverage.  

ABOUT THE PAC

Hamblen and Barncastle Salopek

The oil-backed Our Values PAC involved in a number of legislative races on behalf of GOP candidates has raised $577,000 for the cycle, spent $429,000 and at last report had $172,000 on hand for the closing weeks.

Besides Yevoli, other GOP hopefuls they have been aiding include Nicole Chavez in ABQ District 31 in the far NE Heights and Samntha Barncastle Salopek in Las Cruces in her race against Dem Senator Carrie Hamblen.

Hamblen is seeking a second four year term after defeating local Las Cruces Dem legend Mary Kay Papen four years ago in the Dem primary. Papen is now endorsing Republican Salopek in the District 38 race. 

Hamblen has deep-seated progressive support in her district which leans firmly D and she has brought home ample capital outlay to the area. But a consultant with the Our Values PAC said of Salopek, a 39 year old water and agriculture attorney:

We see Sam as a rising start in the Republican party. She's young, smart, comes from a well-known and respected ranching family and is raising her own family, including a daughter with special needs. She would be a great addition to a state Senate that sorely needs new Republican faces.

Apparently a lot of R's agree. Salopek has raised $140,000 and spent $108,000, according to her latest report. That makes this a serious challenge for Hamblen, despite the 60 percent Dem lean of the district. But there are plenty of conservative Dems in those numbers as Papen demonstrated. 

Hamblen has raised $115,000 and spent $23,000 with over $90,000 left to close out the race.

The candidates discuss their views on the issues here. 

The Las Cruces Bulletin headlined their profile of the race: 

Hamblen's reelection bid faces stiff challenge from Barncastle Salopek

Hamblen vs. Salopek--another race for state political aficionados to keep their eye on come Election Night,

DEBATE VID

KOB-TV has now posted video of the Sunday morning US Senate debate between Sen. Heinrich and Nella Domenici held at ABQ's Congregation Albert and broadcast live. That video is here.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In an early draft Monday we had Senator John Pinto among those greeting VP Dem nominee Tim Walz at the Gallup airport Saturday. Sen. Pinto passed away in 2019. His granddaughter, Shannon Pinto, was elected to his seat and it was she who greeted Walz. Santa Fe reader Stuart Bluestone was among our readers who had some fun with the error:

Joe, I know Day of the Dead celebrations are drawing near, but I doubt even my old friend Sen. John Pinto was able to greet Gov. Walz at his stop in Gallup. 

Sen. Pinto lived to 94. 

Former ABQ GOP state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones comes with the news that former ABQ GOP westside state Rep. Tom Anderson (2003-2015) has died at 91. No other details were immediately available.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

We'll skip the clichés about a Halloween scare and get right to the heart of the matter.

Our sources informed us last week that Trump was planning a New Mexico visit and that was confirmed Sunday when it was announced that the former president will conduct a noon rally in ABQ on Thursday. 

Now those senior sources are telling us the event will be held at the ABQ International Sunport and that Trump will be traveling to battleground Nevada following his stop here.

An airport play is quick and clean. Protesters will try to flood the zone but the Sunport location and ease for security there should lessen the impact, unlike the chaos that ensued when Trump stopped in downtown ABQ in 2016.

So why the visit? That question is on the lips of everyone in La Politica because polling shows VP Harris  and Senator Heinrich are safe for the Dems.

It's true that Trump's visit could boost GOP southern congressional GOP hopeful Yvette Herrell. She is four points behind Rep. Gabe Vasquez in the polling, so that's one part of the puzzle.

EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS

In an extended conversation with Greg Payne, a former ABQ state legislator, veteran campaign consultant and now Santa Fe attorney, we sliced and diced the visit that is raising Republican spirits and causing Dems to pull out their hair. We agreed there are several layers of the onion to peel to explain the visit.

Yes, Trump could give a boost to Herrell in ABQ's South Valley, but his target at this late stage in the campaign is also the nation. Payne explains:

Trump is hitting historic polling numbers among Hispanic voters, especially men. Just the word that he has stopped in "New Mexico" gets attention nationally. That helps him in the battlegrounds particularly Nevada and Arizona. This visit is not about Trump carrying the state against Harris but it is about virtue signaling to Hispanics everywhere that he wants their votes. It will also give him another opportunity to send out his national message on the border--while being near the border.

Trump is getting 41 percent Hispanic support in the ABQ Journal polling, a stunning number that in the modern era has not been achieved on Election Night by a GOP presidential candidate. (George W. Bush did 40 percent in 2004, according to the exits.)

Still, Dem consultants dumped on the Trump NM visit with one of them sarcastically saying:

Trump is extremely popular in New Mexico. Very worth the time and money. Great investment.

Payne and I agreed that the stop here plays into Trump's recent efforts to nationalize the election. He held a major event at Madison Square Garden in New York Sunday, a state he has little chance of carrying but the national buzz created was the reward. (Also, there are a couple of swing congressional seats near NYC.)

Another angle: Trump has never won the popular vote. Running up his totals in non-battleground states that he is destined to lose still helps the goal of winning a popular majority not just one in the Electoral College. The margin could be tiny if he pulls it off--even an extra 5,000 votes here in little 'ol New Mexico could matter.

Local Democrats continue to play with fire, saying that Trump's new Hispanic support here is an aberration. Maybe. But if it isn't and Hispanics are leaving the Dems it has the potential to alter the future political narrative--if the GOP can find leadership to take advantage.

You can't say Trump ignores New Mexico. Despite poor odds he will now have made campaign stops here each of three times he has sought the White House.

WALZING IN 

Hoskie and Walz

He walzed in and walzed out. So it went Saturday for Dem VP nominee Tim Walz as his plane touched down in Gallup and where a motorcade then drove his party to an event in Window Rock, in Arizona, a battleground state. 

The visit was brief and quiet. 

We were informed by a Dem consultant that state Senators Shannon Pinto, a Navajo, and George Munoz, who represents the Gallup area, were on hand to greet the Minnesota governor. State Dem Party Chair Jessica Velasquez was also there.

Brenda Hoskie, chairwoman of the McKinley county Dem party,  enjoyed a handshake and a hug with Walz. She said on her socials:

I welcomed  Governor Tim Walz (Coach). I told Coach “We are at two minutes warning and we need to get the Kamala Harris goal. We are here to help him and Vice President Harris win this election.

As far as we could tell, Walz made no formal statements to the small group of NM greeters.

Indian Country in NM is again poised to deliver big margins to the Dem presidential ticket. 

In Arizona, Biden carried the Rez vote heavy in 2020 and some see it as again critical to the Dem's success there.

PASSIONATE NELLA

It was a rowdy affair, the second and final TV debate between Dem US Senator Martin Heinrich and his Republican rival Nella Domenici. (Video here.)

The one hour face-off was broadcast live from ABQ's Congregation Albert, a Jewish institution of note, but three times the moderator had to deal with protesters loudly confronting Heinrich from the audience over the war in Gaza that has claimed so many lives. 

After security handled that, the candidates soldiered on and it was Nella getting rhetorically rowdy as she unloaded not only the kitchen sink on Heinrich but all the plumbing, too.

It was the least she could do if she is to command a better showing Election Night than she is in the latest polling that has her losing to the two term lawmaker by 11 points. 

Domenici again pointed out the myriad of problems afflicting New Mexico, saying Heinrich has failed to reverse our standing. 

Fair enough, but Nella retorted that what Heinrich is actually tired of is the "brutal truth" that has confronted the state.

Heinrich was most brutal, if you will, and unusually so for him, when he commented on Nella's endorsement of Trump, a decision she waffled on for months: 

If she cares so deeply about women—how can she vote for and support a presidential candidate who has been found liable for rape, who has been convicted 34 times of felonies, who has been accused of sexual assault over and over and over again, including this week when another person came forward. I don’t know how that’s caring deeply for women.  

Domenici put the senior senator on the spot by citing rumors that he will run for Governor in '26:

He bought a new house up here in New Mexico just in time for the five-year residency rule for running for governor.

He did not deny he was thinking about a Guv run, but said: 

I don't traffic in rumors, and I will always serve New Mexico however I think I can do the most good for New Mexico, and right now that is in the United States Senate.

Our latest in the know tracking of the Guv race is that Heinrich will not run for the '26 Dem nomination if Sec. of Interior Deb Haaland makes a bid. But if she does not, then the story line changes.

Heinrich gets credit for accepting a second TV debate. He had the most to lose and could have taken a pass. And he might have lost this one. 

But that is in the context of Domenici coming to life and tossing red meat out that could help her finally consolidate GOP votes and other conservatives that have stayed on the sidelines and kept her at an anemic 40 percent in the polling.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

Here's a heads-up on what remain the tightest (or more interesting) state House races as we hit the final stretch. If you live in any of these districts you're going to want to make sure you vote. After all, you just might be the tie-breaker.

We compiled our list from the consultants, sources on the ground and our reliable Alligators---our longtime blog sources. Here we go.

House District 38---We're back in central New Mexico including Socorro with Republican Rebecca Dow and Democrat Rep. Tara Jaramillo. We're told this one remains as tight as the lug nuts on a 56' Chevy.

Joe, As you framed it is very close and getting nasty. Both candidates accuse each other of having their businesses wrongfully benefit from state contracts, although neither appears to be out of line. Much of this is Dow's old district from when she served in the legislature. Jaramillo has voted moderate to try to hold on to the new and still conservative district. It's tight. A Dow win would be a pickup for the GOP and she would be a player for leadership if she gets the win.

House District 68- on ABQ's Westside. Dem Rep. Charlotte Little vs. Republican Nathan Brooks. The Alligator take: 

Republicans are crying in their beer over this one. Little only won in '22 by 35 votes but the race has now broken her way since it was revealed that Brooks beat up his then wife in 2005 outside a Las Vegas Nevada liquor store and also has some DWI's. He says he's a reformed alcoholic but you can almost hear his support collapsing. The GOP kicks themselves over losing a golden opportunity and Little dodges a bullet.

House District 31--in the far ABQ NE Heights. We covered this yesterday and a little more today. The latest from a consultant:

Nothing appears to have changed. It's a toss up with maybe a slight lean to the Republican but the district is starting to look a bit more Democratic. Republican Nicole Chavez has been trailed by controversy but the GOP is determined to keep their only ABQ House seat. Democrat Vicky Estrada-Bustillo is determined to take it from them. Bottom line? Too wild to call. 

Silva & Winterrowd

House District 52 in the Las Cruces and Otero county area. Our take:

This one features Dem community activist Sarah Silva and Republican Elizabeth Winterrowd who almost won the seat last time. Silva replaced Jon Hill, the winner of the Dem primary but who passed away. 

Dems have come with enough money for Silva who joined the race late, but she is very liberal and the seat was held by conservative Dem Willie Madrid. Look for a close one here. 

House District 36--This is a Las Cruces seat held by Dem. Rep. Nathan Small, chair of the House Appropriations Committee,  who is being challenged by Republican Kimberly Skaggs. The consultant take:

Joe, is this race being painted as close and Nathan is raising a bunch of money because of it? The district performance is 54 percent but he did have a close one against Skaggs last time, 52 to 48. The polling has indicated Skaggs is again making noise. We would call this one likely Democratic with an outside chance for an upset. Still Dems are watching it closely for any late GOP surge.

House District 39 based in Grant County in the SW--This is the kind of race that political oldtimer and lobbyist Scott Scanland would call an "upset special." Our take:

GOP state Rep. Luis Terrazas is well-liked in the district. The problem? Democratic performance is 56 percent and newcomer Gabby Begay, 35, is coming on strong. Begay is making Terrazas' support of public school vouchers a key issue. He's going tough on crime, calling for an end to "catch and release.  He owns a funeral home and understands all kinds of death--including the political kind which he is working hard to avoid. 

There's several more hot ones out there in the state House and Senate and we'll pick up our coverage of them next week. All 70 House seats are up for election this year along with the 42 state Senate seats.

THE 31 BATTLE

Here's a bit of equal time for House 31 Republican hopeful Estrada-Bustillo after we posted a mailer from Republican Nicole Chavez which said she is being unfairly attacked by her opponent for wanting to "ban abortion:

It's a whopper for Republican Nicole Chavez to say she "does not support banning abortion," when her positions to restrict abortion access are well documented—from two years ago, as you pointed out--but also from questionnaires she filled out this election. We're making sure voters know that not only is she opposed to abortion, she's the NM leader of an extremist anti-abortion group anti-abortion group. I guess she figures that since she's already lied about her education credentials and where she lives so what’s one more lie?   

Whatever you do, dear District 31 voters, don't get between these two.

YVETTE'S VIRTUES 

Reader Michael Hays writes: 

Joe, Yvette's virtues, as you summarize them, alienate me. You write, "her most valuable attributes are a no-nonsense, tough-as-nails personality, a never-back-down mentality and a consistency that has appealed to voters for years." I have never regarded "tough-as-nails personality, a never-back-down mentality," and "consistency" as virtues. I think that any representative should have an open mind to new ideas and enough humility to admit mistakes. I also think that "consistency" is an overrated virtue by comparison to reasoned flexibility of thought; good reasons to change one's mind should change it, and they should be used to explain what "gotcha" journalists and political opponents want to charge to flip-flopping. 

Interesting take. But we see Herrell's strong personality standing out in the context of our current congressional delegation. As for her "never back down mentality" we see that as a campaign virtue not as a governing one.

 HARVEST TIME

This photo we've run for a number of years brought a phone call the other day from a former Democratic state representative:

Joe, this is Dan Silva. That photo on the blog is of chile I harvested at my place in the South Valley and stored in my garage. At this time, I am heavy into the green chile. You have to balance things out, you know. 

Silva, 80, served in the state House for nearly 25 years, from 1984 to 2008 and was chairman of the House Transportation Committee. He later became a lobbyist, a job he is now "winding down. His son, Dominic Silva, is a longtime Roundhouse lobbyist.

Silva had a productive career in Santa Fe but by the looks of that chile he had to set aside his true calling to serve in La Politica. Enjoy the harvest, Dan.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

Donald Trump could see New Mexico's blue skies before the books are closed on Campaign '24.

That's according to chatter circulating in law enforcement circles who are among the first to know of any presidential candidate visit since security is paramount.

New Mexico long ago shed its role as a swing state by voting Democratic in every presidential election since 2008 but that hasn't stopped Trump from visiting here during his 2016 and 2020 campaigns. A visit this time would not be unusual.

The presidency hangs on the seven battleground states but Trump has been straying from them to make a national splash, making a stop in California and soon at New York City's Madison Square Garden.

The most recent polling has Trump getting 41 percent of the state's Hispanic voters. That would be a modern record for a GOP presidential contender if it should translate to Election Day. 

In 2004, exit polls showed George W. Bush garnered 40 percent of the Hispanic vote here. 

A NM stop courting the Hispanic vote could translate into positive coverage for Trump across the nation. 

Sources say that an advance team has scoped out a possible Trump visit. There are no other details such as when and where he would speak, if a visit materializes. 

POSSIBLE IMPACT

The only race that the former president might directly impact here with a personal visit would be the southern congressional district where former GOP US Rep. Yvette Herrell, a longtime Trump supporter who voted against certifying Joe Biden's 2020 presidential win, is running 4 points behind (49-45) Dem US Rep. Gabe Vasquez in the late polling.

Herrell had House Speaker Mike Johnson campaign for her in Las Cruces in August. Wednesday the speaker will be back to share the stage with Herrell at a Carlsbad rally in SE NM. The Vasquez campaign reaction:

He’s here in NM-02 to spread his MAGA extremist agenda and back Yvette Herrell’s anti-choice, anti-democracy, anti-New Mexico campaign.

If Trump does touch down in New Mexico he is sure to be greeted by protestors as well as well-wishers. Polling has Harris leading him here 50-41 with 3 percent for RFK Jr. who has withdrawn from the race but whose name remains on the state ballot.

Of course, in Trump world the point of the visit could just be to further Democratic panic over the state of the race by spending time away from the battlegrounds

ABORTION FOCUS IN 31

(click to enlarge)

The race for the sole remaining GOP state House seat in Albuquerque is getting hotter than a Tucumcari parking lot in July. 

Republican Nicole Chavez, busted for misstating her educational credentials on the ABQ Journal questionnaire, is fighting back against Democrat Vicky Estrada-Bustillo who is attacking her on all fronts including the hot-button abortion issue.

In this mailer going out in District 31 in ABQ's far NE Heights, Chavez blasts Estrada-Bustillo for a mailer her opponent sent out attacking Chavez for supporting an abortion ban. The Chavez mailer says:

The Truth: Nicole Chavez does not support banning abortion. 

Chavez does not mention abortion on her web site and the Journal questionnaire for the general election did not ask her position. 

On the 2022 general election questionnaire--when she ran for House District 28--Chavez said this:

Q: Given the U.S. Supreme Court's recent decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, do you support or oppose codifying abortion protections in state law? And do you support or oppose enacting any restrictions on abortion in New Mexico?

Republicans are shrugging off Chavez's questionnaire fiasco over her education, just as they do with charges against Trump, and betting that she can get by Estrada-Bustillo by calming fears that she is an anti-abortion zealot.

The race looks like it could be a real squeaker with the district now 39 percent Republican, 36 percent Democratic and 24 percent independent. 

GOP state Rep. Bill Rehm is retiring, leaving a vacancy and Chavez and Estrada-Bustillo are locked in a heated battle to replace him. It is a must-win for the GOP to avoid a humiliating House shut-out of the minority party in the state's largest county.

GOOD AND BAD

The good news for Martin Heinrich is that he continues to hold a commanding polling lead over Republican Nella Domenici in his bid for a third US Senate term. The bad news? Nationally, the GOP is now expected to take control of the Senate from the Dems and dash  Heinrich's hopes to be chairman of the Senate Energy Committee. 

The Journal survey from Oct 10-18--has the Senate race 51-40 for Heinrich, outside the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percent. 

The Senate race went bust in the Journal's first poll in late September that showed Heinrich ahead 50-38.

A committee chairmanship is a prize a senator covets after two terms but if Heinrich does win re-election and the GOP takes senate control, he'll have to wait for a Dem majority to get that reward. Meanwhile, he does sit on the powerful Appropriations Committee which isn't too shabby.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

Opportunity is staring New Mexico Republicans in the face. Will they seize the moment? 

That's the story line emerging from this year's polling of state elections, with the latest presidential results confirming that an oversized number of Hispanic voters are drifting away from the Democrats.

In the ABQ Journal Oct. 10-18 poll in which VP Harris leads Trump 50 to 41 percent, Hispanic support for the GOP nominee is at or near an historic high of 41 percent. 

VP Harris is making up for this slack in majority-minority New Mexico with Anglo women voters, many of them animated by the abortion issue. Says the poll:

Donald Trump has clearly made inroads with Hispanic voters, but despite that, Kamala Harris has done quite well among Anglo voters to largely offset that.

It is the economic unease and perhaps some backlash against a too woke Dem party that has some Hispanics, usually a loyal Democratic bloc, moving away.

This Hispanic drift probably won't make much of a difference in the presidential race, although Harris is polling worse than Biden did in the state at this point in the campaign. Biden received 54 percent to Trump's 41 in the Journal's Oct-23-28, 2020 survey.

Ditto for Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez whose 51 percent Hispanic polling support is on the low side (Yvette Herrell gets 40) but he also seems to be making it up with women voters. But that race could get even closer if the late voter shift is toward Trump. He leads by just four in the Journal poll and Herrell came with an abortion spot to try to peel off some women.

OUTSIDE THE BOX

But what does this drift mean for the future of state politics. Or a better question would be, what can it mean? 

If the GOP starts thinking outside the box it could mean the start of a desperately needed turnaround.  Here are several ideas offered free of charge to our forlorn GOP friends:

--In the '25 session of the Legislature make your centerpiece legislation a proposal eliminating the state income tax on households making less than $45,000 a year. Why $45K? Because it is those customers McDonald's is targeting with its $5 value meals, reporting that they are the consumers hurting most from inflation. And many of those hamburger and french fry lovers happen to be people of color.

The tax cut could be easily afforded. Heck, with our state's oil boom savings we could buy a foreign country. But for the worry warts, pass the tax cut and put a sunset on it of five years in case oil prices go into a prolonged slump.

Second, sponsor a bill to repeal all state taxation on Social Security income. (Yes, we've kinda changed our mind on this one). Lawmakers have done that for singles making less than $100,000 and households under $150,000. Even though this cut would benefit the more affluent, the messaging for the GOP--combined with the elimination of the state income tax--is sublime. 

Unclench your tight fists, GOP, and watch with wonder how it works.

Third, stop complaining about the Democratic Emerge group that recruits solid candidates and organize a Republican version. That way there are able and fresh faces instead of GOP candidates like we've seen this year that lie on the newspaper's questionnaire or appallingly ask voter forgiveness for beating up their wife in front of a liquor store and leaving her with a purple eye and spitting blood from her mouth. Really.

So will the GOP stop staring at the opportunity and start acting? They don't have anything to lose. They've already lost everything here.

TRAIL DUST 

By our estimate the election is over for about 17 percent of the expected voters.

The SOS reported Monday that so far 155,660 ballots have been cast early including this past Saturday, the kick-off for widespread in-person early voting which always draws a big crowd. 

With our expected total turnout at 900,000 that represents the aforementioned 17 percent of voters who can now relax. Unfortunately they still have to watch all those TV ads during their favorite programs. All the statewide early turnout numbers released Monday are here. . . 

From the SOS:

The Secretary of State’s Office has created an election misinformation fact check page at NMVOTE.ORG/Rumor. The Office also provides information and resources to educate voters about the potential risks associated with artificial intelligence (AI), deepfakes, and their potential impact on the manipulation of election information. These resources can be accessed at SOS.NM.GOV/AI. . .

Today is the final day to request an absentee ballot for the Nov. 5 election. The link to do that is here.  

DAY IN THE LIFE

MLG on rising and shining:

I typically wake up around 6:30. I get up and I make a beeline for hot coffee. I drink coffee until I’m asleep — cold, hot, lukewarm. I don’t typically eat breakfast. We have a little space downstairs, and I try to work out around 7:15. 

I work out with a girlfriend and we do it via video with a trainer. He makes me do weight training for good bone health, which is what women my age, and frankly women of all ages, should do. I’d like to do it two or three times a week, but these days it’s once or twice a month.

The Guv says bedtime is midnight to 2 A.M. Well, that explains the coffee.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

On the strength of abortion, a gerrymandered district that is finally taking hold and his incumbency, US Rep. Gabe Vasquez takes a four point lead into the final weeks of his re-election effort against Republican Yvette Herrell. 

The ABQ Journal poll, conducted October 10-18, has Vasquez leading Herrell 49 to 45 percent with only five percent undecided in the state's 2nd Congressional District, often referred to as the southern district. 

The poll's margin of error in this nationally watched race as Republicans battle to keep control of the US House is plus or minus 4.8 percent.

While definitively leaning Democratic, the contest is not closed out but does show Herrell needs a last hours turnaround to shake what appears to be a solid lead by her foe who is seeking his second term.

In two earlier polls--in late August and late September--Herrell trailed Vasquez by an eyebrow raising nine points. Those surveys were seen as revealing the trend but missing the nuance that is traditionally provided by the more expansive and expensive Journal polls. 

While Herrell would have liked a poll that showed her closer than a four point deficit, this survey puts to bed fears that her partisans would give up all hope in the final days. 

In the Journal poll released October 20, 2022, Vasquez led Herrell 47 to 45 percent. Vasquez went on to to win by a mere 0.7 percent or 1,350 votes. 

But that year there was no Roe V. Wade Supreme Court ruling hovering over the race and Herrell was the incumbent after beating Dem Rep. Xochitl Torres Small in her re-election bid in 2020. 

'22 was also a "red wave" year when dire forecasts for the Republicans in the US House failed to materialize. 

TABLES TURNED

This year the tables are turned. 

--Abortion is now a nationalized issue driving turnout among Democratic women. 

--Vasquez is the incumbent and has out-raised Herrell $6.7 million to $4.1 million. (Outside PAC money is also playing a major role in the race.)

--The national environment appears more neutral for the Democrats than two years ago.

Herrell has begun trying to fade the abortion issue, putting up a new TV spot that tries to soften her tone, saying she is not in favor of a national abortion plan and supports abortion in the case of rape, incest and life of the mother. 

But the pro-choice Dems keep hammering Herrell with her earlier damning quote:

I’ve carried legislation to eliminate late-term abortion. I wish we could have eliminated all abortion in this state.

Vasquez has come with a closing spot defending his record on crime which the GOP has been attacking. The ad is narrated by a Hispanic man with an accent. More on that below.

Crucially, this district no longer appears to be a true swing district.

The 2021 gerrymander by the Dem dominated state legislature removed conservative precincts from the district in Chaves, Eddy and Lea counties and added moderate Dem precincts on ABQ's westside and South Valley. 

If Joe Biden had run in today's southern district in 2020, he would have won it by 5.7 percent. That's a true Democratic lean.

THE DEMOS

In the Journal poll women favor Vasquez, but not by as much as Dems running in the presidential and senate race: 

Vasquez had a 14-point lead among women voters, with 53% of support among women compared to 39% support for Herrell. Meanwhile, Herrell had a slight edge with male voters, with 50% support among that group compared to 46% support among men for Vasquez.

The poll is mostly good news for Vasquez but there is a yellow flag of caution for him and the Democrats among Hispanic voters:

(in 2022) Vasquez had a large lead among Hispanic voters in the district, with support of 61% of voters in that demographic. Support among that demographic group is not as strong for Vasquez this election cycle. . . Vasquez had support from 51% of Hispanic voters surveyed, while Herrell had 40% support among that group.

The problem, as state Dem strategist Sisto Abeyta has been pointing out, is Hispanic men. 

Many of them feel abandoned by a Democratic party they see focusing too much on on abortion, transgender issues and climate change while failing to adequately address economic concerns and crime, issues high on the list of working-class voters.

Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff says Hispanic dissatisfaction is now passed the point of simply not voting:

The Hispanic vote is not coalescing among the Democrats in the same manner as it has in prior years. Many Hispanic voters are considering Republican candidates such as Yvette Herrell, such as Donald Trump. 

The potential problem is illustrated in party support for Herrell and Vasquez:

Vasquez had strong support among Democratic voters, with 84% support among that group, Herrell had support among nearly all Republican voters surveyed, with 91% support.

Three prominent conservative Dem Hispanic male state representatives were trounced by progressive women at the June '24 primary, reinforcing the control of the progressive wing of the party. But the poll shows circumstances that could be a building block for the future of a state Republican party that is nearly extinct.  

Meanwhile, Vasquez is in control of his re-election but the road has enough bumps in it for Herrell to keep racing and to do her best to force an accident that could change her fortunes.

SLOW ROLL

The Journal is slow-rolling release of their final polling results in the presidential race. They will be announced this week but they are not highly anticipated as both contests appear closed out with neither presidential camp actively campaigning here.

Trump has consistently trailed Harris by large margins and ditto for and Sen. Heinrich over Republican Nella Domenici.

The other two congressional districts--ABQ area District 1 represented by Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury-- and the 3rd District in the north represented by Dem Tersea Leger Fernandez are safe Democratic seats.

ON THE TRAIL

Steve Jones

Stansbury did debate her opponent, retired Roswell accountant and oil executive Steve Jones, on KOB-TV last week. Fifteen minutes of that 30 minute encounter were posted by the station. 

Jones, a political newcomer at 78 who has not had the resources to run a serious campaign, proved to be an able and intelligent candidate who did not come off extreme in the civil exchange.  

Stansbury came prepared and did nothing to call into question the status of the race.

Vasquez rejected a TV debate with Herrell so the station had her on for a solo interview that can be seen here. 

The sole remaining political debate in the ABQ TV market will apparently come October 27 at ABQ's Congregation Albert. They will host Sen. Heinrich and Nella Domenici for brunch and what will be their second TV face-off. 

That debate is set for 11 A.M. and will be carried by KOB-TV, according to the Congregation. 

Reservations to attend can be made here. 

NELLA'S PURSE

We're not presumptuous enough (or delusional) to believe that she did it for our sake, but right after we posted the Thursday blog reporting that GOP US Senate hopeful Nella Domenci failed to donate any personal money to her campaign in the latest FEC reporting period--after donating $1.5 million in earlier quarters--she came with $750,000 in new loans (here and here), bringing the total personal funding of her campaign to $2.25 million.

We cautioned on that Thursday blog that she might not be done dipping into her fortune but it is a bit curious considering her lagging position and the limited time left to effectively deploy that cash.

Domenici is worth upwards of $90 million, according to her Senate filings. 

If that figure is accurate, Nella donating $2.25 million is like someone worth $100,000 donating $2,500 to their campaign. 

With that in mind if yer little 'ol blog in any way played a part in Nella reopening her purse, we feel no guilt but we do caution her not to spend it all in one place.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.