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Wednesday, July 18, 2018

MLG's Bad Week Continues; Accuracy Of Her Latest Ad Questioned, Plus: Libertarian Failure Could Help Pearce A Bit And The Latest On The Money Race For Congress 

This is turning into a week that Michelle Lujan Grisham would like to forget. First there was that controversial newspaper interview in which the Dem Guv nominee threw the progressive wing of her Dem Party overboard and got her in hot water. Now there's questions about the accuracy of her latest TV ad. It has the state GOP calling on ABQ TV stations to pull the spot:

Michelle Lujan Grisham is not being honest with New Mexico voters about her record. Given your station’s responsibility to protect the public from deceptive advertising, I urge you to immediately stop running Lujan Grisham’s ad.

The spot is not going to be pulled but. . .

It was the kind of unforced error that Steve Pearce badly needs and he quickly took to his Facebook page to pounce:

The AP finds that Michelle Lujan Grisham is misleading New Mexicans in her new TV ad. She claims overdose deaths decreased under her watch as Health Secretary - in reality, they went up steadily.

The fact check gave hope to Republicans that the MLG campaign is not as well-oiled as it should be:

LUJAN GRISHAM: "When I was secretary of health, we lowered overdoses through better treatment." Lujan Grisham led the department from August 2004 through June 2007.

THE FACTS: That was only true for illicit drugs such as heroin in some years, and not those counted as dying from a combination of drugs. Lujan Grisham's campaign cited a 21 percent decline in heroin deaths from 2005-2006.

But statewide annual drug overdose deaths increased steadily from 304 in 2004 to 439 in 2007, according to the state Department of Health. The rate of opioid-related overdose deaths from illicit drugs and pain-relief medication also increased.

The ad misstep raises the question why the MLG camp felt the need to make such a stretch as they nurse a healthy polling lead. The unforced error comes in the middle of summer when attention to the campaign is at its low. But the Pearce camp is paying a whole lot of attention and can only hope for more breaks from their rival.

LIBERTARIAN FADE

There's another tidbit of good news for underdog Pearce. The Libertarian candidate trying to make the November ballot via a write-in campaign has failed to do so:

Libertarians sought the recount in eight counties this year after their write-in candidates for governor, Bob Walsh, and lieutenant governor, Robin Dunn, fell short of the 230-vote threshold required to make the Nov. 6 ballot. They each received about 180 votes in the June 5 primary election. Walsh’s number climbed to 186 votes in the recount, according to the unofficial tallies submitted to the Secretary of State’s Office. . . Walsh needed at least 230 votes, or 2 percent of the Libertarians registered in New Mexico.

If Walsh had made the ballot it's a safe assumption that most of his votes would have attracted would have come from conservatives who normally would go to Pearce. It matters because if Pearce manages a victory over his Dem rival, even his most ardent supports agree it would likest be by the closest of margins.

MONEY RACE

The first money reports for the congressional races this fall make it clear that Democrat Deb Haaland is in the driver's seat in the contest for the ABQ congressional seat and in the southern district the Democrat is going to be well-financed in a district that leans R.

Haaland raised: $458,891.30 in the April-June quarter. She won a six way Dem primary race by a whopping 14 points. Her cash on hand is $241,000. Republican nominee Janice Arnold-Jones raised $54,600 and has cash on hand of $46,660

The ABQ congressional district has not elected a Republican candidate since 2006. It's Safe Dem.

In the southern district being vacated by US Rep. Steve Pearce, Dem Xochitl Torres Small reports raising $619,000 and had $496,000 in cash on hand. Republican Yvette Herrell raised $172,000 and had $100,000 in cash.

Herrell had a contentious primary with two foes, including former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman who was raising money against her in the quarter. Still, the Torres Small number is hopeful for Dems as Herrell works to even things up. The district is Lean R.

TWO VIEWS

Lots of reaction to Lujan Grisham's parting of the ways with her progressive Dem wing in the Sunday Journal piece we blogged about it. Here's two:

This progressive Democrat just lost her lunch. Is Michelle trying to court the oil and gas industry and Pearce voters? If so, she'll fail. As long as she is a registered Democrat, she'll get no votes from that group. Political campaign rhetoric that attempts to satisfy all will fail. MLG ought to take another look at the special election results this year at what type of Democrat wins. Michelle, sweetheart, stand up for your party which is going more progressive rather than less center-left. 2018 is not 2000. Is your advisor named McCleskey? After all, who wants to reverse instead of go forward? A dadgum certified, progressive Democrat, Violet Cauthon, Las Cruces.

And another view:

Joe, believe or not Michelle’s credentials are almost exactly what New Mexico Hispanics are. We grew up with little money to spare and consequently are fiscally responsible. My county, Rio Arriba, is the third largest producer of oil and gas in New Mexico. Why bite the hand that feeds us? The Crocagator.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018
 
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