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Tuesday, July 17, 2018

No Overcrowding Here; Report Says Hardly Any NM Growth From Now Until 2040, Plus: Troubled BernCo Sheriff Dept; How Does Sheriff Gonzales Re-elect Look?  

Don't worry about not having enough elbow room or having LA sized traffic jams in our enchanted land. The population here will grow at a snail's pace between now and 2040, according to a report analyzing growth in all 50 states.

The report from the Welden Cooper Center at the University of Virginia is a real stunner. It projects the NM population in 2040 will be 2,160,000, a mere 5 percent increase from the 2010 census which counted 2,059,000 New Mexicans.

NM population growth has been stuck in a rut since 2010 when the economy began crashing. While that was happening we were surrounded by booming growth in Arizona, Texas and Colorado. The report expects that trend to continue as well.

Twenty years is a long time to project into the future but already the trend is in place. The July '17 US Census Estimate of the state population was 2,088,00 which is not even two percent growth since the 2010 census.

At the turn of the century the talk was about New Mexico perhaps gaining another seat in the US House. Now the next generation will have to fret about possibly losing a seat.

As for economic growth, you can't have much if you're not growing your population.

For those who shudder at the thought of New Mexico being "Californicated" the report is a dream come true. For businesses looking to grow and university grads thinking about getting a good job and making New Mexico their home, it's another kick in the teeth.

I filed my first news report in the Land of Enchantment in June of 1974. Without question, the depopulation/stagnation in this century of this once thriving, magnetic Sunbelt state is the biggest story of them all, with more political, social and economic ramifications yet to unfold.

SHERIFF WATCH

The wheels have been coming off at the Bernalillo County Sheriff's department this month, leading reader George Richmond to ask about the political fortunes of Democratic Sheriff Manny Gonzales:

Joe, how do you rate his chances now for re election?

Well, George, despite the Sheriff's problems with nepotism in the department, the lawsuit over a deputy's fatal shooting of two men in a parked car and the heat Gonzales continues to take for refusing to have his deputies wear video lapel cameras, his chances for re-election still look pretty good.

The main reason is that his his GOP opponent, Lou Golson, has hardly any cash on hand to put out a negative message on Gonzales who is seeking his second, four year term this November. At the start of this month Golson reports only $2,700 in cash while Sheriff Gonzales has already amassed $64,000.

Not that Gonzales isn't at least somewhat vulnerable. In the three way June primary he was held below the 50 percent mark, garnering 49 percent of the vote, with Sylvester Stanley taking 38 percent. Not exactly a huge vote of confidence by members of Gonzales' own party.

Another problem for Golson is the changing nature of BernCo. Not long ago the sheriff position was a swing seat, shared by Dems and R's, but in recent years the county has swung deeper into the blue. For example, when Gonzales was elected in 2014, he was the first Democratic Hispanic in memory to take the sheriff's office.

Golson is an Air Force veteran and retired APD officer who is well-known in ABQ for having suffered four gunshot wounds while making a traffic stop. He underwent a long recovery. But a quality candidate needs support and the R's, at least so far, don't seem willing to pony up for Golson and make the Gonzales-Golson face-off a banner race, even as Manny draws banner headlines. We'll keep any eye on it for you.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018
 
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