Senator Tom Udall, 70, announced today he will not seek a third US Senate term. 

Big political news today as Senator Tom Udall announces he will not seek a third term in 2020. That could open the floodgates for a bunch of Dem candidates seeking to replace him, or perhaps one or two strong ones emerge and clear the field. Republicans have a harder time finding a top-tier candidate as their bench is weaker than the Dems. Here are some of the top names already floating as possible contenders to replace Udall:

Democrats: Attorney General Hector Balderas, US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, US Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver, Lt. Gov. Howie Morales and ABQ Mayor Keller. Keller is not seen as likely to make the run as the others.

The Dems will be heavily favored to keep the seat as NM has grown increasingly blue in recent years and last year elected a Dem Governor and re-elected a Dem US Senator.

Possible GOP contenders include former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez and ABQ real estate developer Steve Maestas.

Thanks to Udall's surprise announcement the spring winds are primed now to really push the political rumor mill. Should be fun.

Udall was not very specific on why he is not seeking re-election. He said:

I’m confident that we could run a strong campaign next year to earn a third term, because of all the work you and I have done together, along with my wife, Jill, and my incredibly dedicated staff,” Udall said. “But the worst thing anyone in public office can do is believe the office belongs to them, rather than to the people they represent. That’s why I’m announcing today that I won’t be seeking re-election next year.

URBAN VS. RURAL

Given the renewed focus on New Mexico's "rural-urban" divide we thought it a good time to check out the growing population gap between the state's three large metro areas and the rest of the state. The results are interesting if not exceptionally surprising.

The most current estimate of the state's population is 2.095 million. Of that, 913,000 live in the officially designated ABQ metro area; 214,000 live in the Las Cruces metro and 146,000 in the Santa Fe metro. That's a total of 1.273 million.

The three metro areas now comprise nearly 61 percent of the state's population which explains much when it comes to analyzing the current political climate. Cities are traditionally more liberal and their newfound power this century is being felt at the ballot box and in legislation approved or defeated in Santa Fe.

The revolt of the state's sheriffs against new gun control laws adopted in Santa Fe--29 of the state's 33 county sheriffs loudly opposed them--tells the story. Their collective muscle had little impact on the body politic. The bills passed.

That's not entirely due to the metro population surge--polls show widespread support for background checks for gun sales across the political spectrum--but it did surface the rural frustration with their big city counterparts and demonstrated that more often than not "urban"will be the long term winner in the urban/rural divide.

State House Minority Leader Jim Townsend of Artesia said following the recent 60 day legislative session:

This session will go down in history as the one in which the Legislature failed to listen to the populace. This session misses the mark. It does not represent New Mexico … I am convinced you will see the people rise up like never before. . . This was Santa Fe versus the rest of New Mexico. In two years … we plan to change the numbers.

But the sad fact for Townsend and his fellow rural New Mexicans of a similar philosophical bent is that the numbers have already changed and the change they represent for the state appears irrevocable.

Upcoming events could begin to cement that change. Next year's election is one of them. Conservative Senate Democrats could face primary challengers from more liberal opponents and three ABQ GOP metro state Senators could face formidable Democratic challengers. Also, the 2021 redistricting of the state legislature is slowly drawing closer. It will be presided over by a Democratic Governor and very likely a Democratic legislature. That could further weaken rural standing because of population shifts and Democratic political proclivities favoring the cities. All of this will only increase the pressure on Townsend's brand of conservatism to maintain its relevance.

HOW FAR LEFT?

Even though trends are away from the R's in rural counties, the state is not about to become a hotbed of California liberalism. Analysis now from one of our Senior Alligators with long experience in Santa Fe. She says:

It will be interesting to watch the state House if the conservative coalition in the Senate experiences a big dip in power. If so, I suspect that the House may not be nearly as liberal as it is now. As things stand the liberal House members can send any kind of progressive legislation over to the Senate knowing it will be killed with little political fallout. Speaker Egolf could be more of a gatekeeper on those type of bills if and when the Senate's politics move more to the center.

CYFD COMPETENCE

Reader Richard Flores, formerly of CYFD, monitors developments for us at the agency. He reacts to news carried here Friday that one of the department's social workers has been charged with child abuse and delinquency of a child:

In about 1990, New Mexico required all employees whose job classification included the title of "social worker" to be licensed by the newly created Board of Social Work Examiners. The licensing process was instituted to professionalize the practice of Social Work in New Mexico, and this included all child protection workers employed by CYFD. In 2001, or somewhere in that vicinity, CYFD was able to circumvent the licensing requirement by changing the job title (to caseworker) of those employees that provided direct services (investigations, permanency planning services) to children and families. 

By removing the title "Social Worker" from those engaged in direct services to victims of child abuse/neglect, CYFD also effectively removed the licensing requirement for employees at that level. In my opinion, that decision to deregulate social work practice at CYFD, whether intended or not, put into motion the evolution of that culture that you allude to in your Friday blog.

Got, it Richard. Did CYFD Secretary Blalock as well?

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2019