A merry John Kerry topped the field with a near blow-out victory in New Hampshire last night and prepared to swoop down on New Mexico as he goes for a final kill for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination. The Kerry bandwagon is going to get plenty loud. The new top dog will be here Superbowl Sunday and the day after, and his wife will also do a two day tour. Former San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros will warm up the mariachis here, and the Big Enchilada, Senator Ted Kennedy, will also take a day here to lead the Kerry chorus.

Don't like Kerry? How about the big band sounds of Wes Clark? He'll be here four times before the February 3 caucus. Edwards plays Saturday, Dean will rock here at least once, and even Dennis Kucinich and his alternative sounds will be heard live and in person. All of this will be accompanied by a drumbeat of saturation TV ads, direct mail, door-knocking, phoning, and in some cases, downright pleading. In other words, it's crunch time and New Mexico is at ground zero.

Late last night the phone lines of La Politica buzzed. The consensus among my experts: Kerry will get significant momentum in New Mexico. Dean must win here or Arizona or else, 'negative' campaigning is likely and Wes Clark was the big loser here for not
tuning up the volume in New Hampshire. Let's go to the roundtable.

BRIAN'S SONG

ABQ Journal pollster and public opinion expert Brian Sanderoff and I kicked the ball around in a late night post mortem. Brian said Kerry may already be in the lead here after two impressive wins. Most important, when Dean was on top few of the absentee ballots in New Mexico were being mailed in, perhaps dampening any early Dean momentum. "Dean has to win somewhere next week or he will have difficulty continuing.' Only New Mexico and Arizona look friendly for the doctor so New Mexico very well could be his burial ground or the scene of his resurrection. Sanderoff and I agreed that Clark's poor showing last night will cost him here. "He was the alternative to Dean and now Kerry has assumed that role. He has no momentum." Brian said.

What about the critical Hispanic vote? "It hasn't been discussed, but the reason Hispanics come out to vote in primaries is because of a lot of Hispanic candidates in local races. Bringing in Kennedy to excite the Hispanic base and get them out is smart."

Brian also pointed out that a lot of conservative Eastside Dems will sit out this prez race. "They look at this bunch and don't see anyone who excites them. Kennedy will not hurt Kerry there, because a lot of the folks who don't like him are not going to vote." And more bad news for Clark: "He has appeal in the large military community here, but the bad news is that a lot of them are Republicans." A final Sanderoff point: Many of the absentee ballots sent out may not be returned. "It was very easy to get a ballot and that could mean many "weakly committed voters" will not be heard from. Thanks Brian.

PAVLIDES PONDERS

Now over to veteran New Mexico pollster Harry Pavlides: "Kerry needs to come into New Mexico and Arizona and win because that's where Dean is expected to win. He needs to make the kill now. I think Clark is gone because Kerry is now the military candidate. Edwards could have done well here, but New Hampshire hurt and stalled his momentum. Only a solid South Carolina win will do, and even that may not be enough." Harry, making an educated guess, said he thinks the Journal poll that will hit Sunday should show Kerry ahead of Dean by about four points, so the race is not out of reach.

Why is New Mexico important? "Because this is the first state where the Hispanic Democratic vote will be near majority or majority Hispanic. That's important to the Democrats. If Kerry wins it will change his perception among Hispanics nationwide, and if someone other than Kerry wins here, it will be enough to keep that candidate alive for the next round." Pavlides said there is reason for nervousness about Kerry not being on TV. "He needs to be on heavy, and if they have time, they should send him to Las Cruces, not just Albuquerque." Kerry's campaign says his TV starts today. Good points Harry.

STEVE'S WORLD

Steve Cabiedes, longtime field organizer and Green party advocate:"I don't think things are as dire for Dean as the media is portraying them, but it does look like New Mexico is a key state for Dean. Cabiedes also warned against a negative campaign against Kerry by Dean. He can carry it wih his own message. it is clearly different than Kerry's. He needs to marshal his forces, his field organization to win this thing. A negative campaign hurt him (Dean) in Iowa and another one could do the same.

"The best thing for Dean is a mixed February 3rd, with several winners. If Dean is second to a winning Kerry in several states next week, it could be the death blow." Cabiedes, like my other analysts, agreed New Mexico is the best bet for Dean against the new front-runner. Well said Steve.

BRUCE AT THE BULLRING

And what about the Republicans here? Over to GOP warhorse Bruce Donisthorpe, fresh from the action at Santa Fe's political watering hole, The Bullring. "Dean can't sugarcoat this. New Hampshire was a big loss, but Kerry has had a late start in New Mexico, and that could hurt. He needs to make up a lot of ground quickly." Bruce said the good news for Kerry is that he just needs a strong showing in New Mexico, while Dean needs a win. He adds: "People like a winner. That's a big advantage for Kerry here. At the least, his wins make New Mexicans take a serious look at him and that's good for him. But the true blue Republican said the GOP is not that worried about Kerry vs. Bush. "He will be painted as a Massachusetts liberal, which he is. Also, I think Kerry will be weak against Bush in the south and the east. Donisthorpe believes Kerry would be a stronger general election opponent for the prez than Dean because "he has more crossover appeal among military people and moderate voters."

MONAHAN'S PRIMARY ANALYSIS IN TODAY'S ABQ TRIBUNE
ABQ TRIBUNE

Thanks, guys. Once again, great analysis and insight as we prepare for the final frenzied stretch. We'll be back on the hotline with these top experts next Tuesday night when the New Mexico vote rolls in. Don't miss it!

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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