It's not what Steve Pearce said, it was what he didn't say that cost him a win to Michelle Lujan Grisham. That was the consensus of our political experts avidly watching last night's first televised gubernatorial debate on Fox New Mexico.

(Complete video here.)

And what Pearce wouldn't say is what his primary TV spot says: That Democrat Lujan Grisham is a corrupt politician who will be an unethical leader and who will reward her cronies from the state treasury.

Veteran political analyst and attorney Greg Payne, a Dem, sums it up this way:

Pearce did not step up and press his negative attacks against Lujan Grisham over Delta Consulting. If you can't say it in a debate when your opponent is sitting across the table from you, no one is going to think your negative ad is credible--no matter how much money you spend on it.

A longtime GOP consultant said it appeared Pearce's handlers do not want to risk unwinding the positive, friendly image he built over the summer with TV ads that showcased a friendly uncle-like figure who gets along with just about everyone. His take:

Pearce didn't do badly on the issues. Dems watching would agree with Michelle and R's watching would go with Pearce and everyone runs to their corner. But he did not dent her on the character/corruption issue that could cause second guessing among her supporters. And with only 7 percent of the electorate undecided and him trailing 50-43 (in the ABQ Journal poll) he needs to dent her. By not taking that risk, he handed her the victory.

Many of those chiming in agree with this Pearce sympathizer on what went wrong:

MLG was the more articulate and nimble debater--a result of having gone through a contentious primary, which Pearce did not. . . She was prepared to use Pearce’s record in the Legislature and in Congress against him with specifics. She seemed prepared for everything Pearce said. Pearce wasn’t quite so nimble — perhaps because he hasn’t had to debate anyone in ages. He seemed to avoid attacking her on some of her most controversial votes or statements. He was too nice and didn’t try to throw her off her base. 

SHORT TAKE STEVE

Another veteran politico, independent Steve Cabiedes, scored it for MLG with this reasoning:

There was no knockdown or knockout by Steve which he needed.

BOYD'S BARBED ATTACKS

The tone of the debate was what caught the attention of the Journal's Dan Boyd:

In a remarkable change in tone, Michelle Lujan Grisham and Steve Pearce seized on their first televised debate Wednesday as a chance to sharply question each other and trade barbed attacks over whose vision is right for New Mexico.

NEXT TIME

There will be two more TV debates and this GOP Alligator has some advice on how Pearce can recover:

Next time, Pearce needs to aim more directly at her. If he’s going to charge her with corruption in his ads, he needs to say it in debates and forums and prosecute her on the spot. He also needs to challenge her policy positions, specifically on CYFD and crime. 

Furthermore, by using her own words against her, he should create a split between progressive Democrats and conservative Democrats--things that might cause progressives to stay home and conservative Dems to support him. Pearce’s number one goal: convince everyone that MLG is corrupt and unworthy of the office of governor. Second to this, he should also portray MLG as an unreasonable and far left liberal with no record of reaching across the aisle.

NO, STEVE WON

The political experts may have thought Pearce lost the debate because he failed to carry his corruption message about MLG to the public, but his campaign touted a flash poll that KRQE-TV conducted after the face-off that showed him winning 54% to 46% among over 700 respondents. So take that, Brian Sanderoff.

EVEN MORE ANALYSIS

Back to our stable of analysts and this Dem Senior Alligator:

Lujan Grisham  needed to “stay the course” and she did. Pearce didn’t really do much to weaken Grisham with direct attacks, and probably could have done better to differentiate himself from his opponent.

Both talk like pedantic, Potomac River politicos reciting whatever is popular these days in DC. With Grisham 58 and Pearce now 70, they are both doing very little to capture the energetic, new style we see around the country in this year’s election. How about some new ideas? Some alternative takes on the topics du jour? A little inspiration, perhaps, please? Their unimaginative approach on the tremendous issues we face doesn’t bode well for what’s to come in Santa Fe. Someone needs to light a fire under these people.

That Gator wasn't the only one who thought the debate discussion flew right over the heads of most voters:

If the public was turned off or lost quick interest in this debate, one of the reasons is that neither of the candidates were speaking to real people. They were using the phrases and short-hand of the political, consulting and media class. I mean, what on earth was Lujan Grisham talking about when she kept going on about the CLIFF effect? And then there was Pearce wanting his hypothetical addict who also hypothetically stole his car to be on heroin, instead of meth. If someone steals your car, who cares what they're on? Neither one of these candidates seem to live in the same world the rest of us do.

YVETTE VS. XOCHITL 

Yvette & Xochitl

Things just keep getting more interesting in the race for the open southern congressional seat. Now the New York Times pollsters have weighed in and unlike the ABQ Journal, which had GOP State Rep. Yvette Herrell beating Democrat Xochitl Torres Small by a margin of 48 to 41, the Times survey has Torres small favored by one point--46-45. It was apparently enough for the noted Cook Political Report to move the race from "lean Republican to "toss up." That's after we moved it from "lean Republican" to likely Republican based on Herrell's strength in the survey of likely voters. Here's what the Times said:

NM-2, final: D+1, Torres-Small (D) 46, Herrell (R) 45 This is the first Democratic lead we've found in a district rated as "lean Republican" Torres-Small has a strong 33/17 fav rating, and she's running well ahead of the R+7 generic ballot here.

The difference in the polls is the turnout assumption. The Journal and pollster Brian Sanderoff do not see new Dem voters surging in the southern CD and the Times does. For example, the Times survey agrees with the Journal's that Herrell has a healthy lead among people calling themselves "certain voters" but says among voters who did not vote in both the '16 and '18 elections Torres Small has a lead of 15 points.

We think we may be ahead of the crowd and we're sticking by our "likely Republican" rating for the race because for decades turnout in Las Cruces--the home base of Torres Small--has been notoriously difficult to spike in a mid term elections. In the past we've seen Democratic efforts to take this seat turn into a head fake come October. That means we think the electorate will mostly be those certain voters. But we could be wrong--that because of Trump newbie voters this year will flood the polls. All of this makes for an interesting race--for now. We look forward to the debates.

P.S. The GOP National Congressional Committee has now joined the race with attack ads on Torres Small. The Dem Congressional Committee has been on the tube pounding Herrell.

THE BOTTOM LINES

One thing ABQ can agree on in these often politically polarized times is that we have a great airport--convenient to all, exceptionally clean, efficient, good parking and a terrific maintenance staff that keeps it humming. The news:

Albuquerque International Sunport came in eighth among medium-sized North America airports, notching up a few slots from last year, in a new passenger satisfaction study by J.D. Power. Based on a 1,000-point scale, J.D. Power ranked Albuquerque’s airport at 797 in a grouping of 21 medium-hub airports. Buffalo Niagara International Airport took the No. 1 spot in the segment, with a score of 814.

We're surprised it doesn't rank even higher.

And on that positive note and as the negative campaigns prepare to rain down, we thank you for joining us today.

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Like the rest of the political community ABQ City Hall insiders are tracking the latest campaign polling like bloodhounds on a scent, but they're also looking at some polling of their own and are pretty pleased with what they are seeing.

One of the insiders with a reliable track record says Mayor Tim Keller has weathered the first ten months of his mayoralty in good shape with his approval rating in the vicinity of the 62 percent that he was elected with last November.

Another interesting point in the Keller polling, according to our insider, is that more than a majority of city residents finally believe the city under the leadership of Democrat Keller is headed in the right direction. However, those polled believe the state, led by Republican Governor Martinez, is still headed down the wrong path.

The explanation? It's not that ABQ has suddenly been transformed into a crime free zone with high paying jobs. It's that people are now hopeful that the city under new leadership has a shot at improving.

The final years of Republican Mayor Berry were dreadful with soaring crime rates, a sour economy and a woeful public transit project known as ART. It's not that city residents believe happy days are here again; it's that they are pleased to see a new face at the helm. Now it's up to that new face to  perform and put smiles on the faces of his constituents.

(We caution that we have not seen the actual poll and are relying one one of our reliable sources--known around here as an "Alligator" if you are new to the blog. If we get burned that Gator faces the fearsome punishment of 20 lashes with a wet noodle, a ban on consuming red or green chili for one year and 7 days in solitary confinement in a morada in Mora County. That will keep them honest).

One plan Mayor Keller is winning praise over--after being scorned for not acting quickly--is the establishment of a Downtown Public Safety District. It's quite comprehensive and is raising hopes that the death spiral the center of the city has been enduring is finally ending. New jobs coming to the area are also boosting hopes. Keller has also come with a plan to alleviate homelessness in the city.

DEBATE NIGHT

It's time for the first televised gubernatorial debate of the '18 campaign. The face-off starts tonight at 6 p.m. on KASA FOX 2 in ABQ and a live stream at krqe.com. For those outside the ABQ media market, the debate will also be broadcast on KTSM-TV Channel 9 in El Paso which covers Las Cruces and environs.

The debate runs for one hour. The format is pretty loose with a lone moderator keeping an eye on things while the two contenders are free to go into detail--or on the attack--on the issues raised. They will be allowed to question one another.

With a seven point lead over Republican Steve Pearce in the ABQ Journal poll--50-43--Michelle Lujan Grisham will work to avoid any major gaffe that could reset the race. Pearce can be expected to try to jar her loose with an aggressive performance. A key question: Will he bring anything new about his opponent to the table? Well, his campaign is revving up the pre-debate rhetoric:

Tomorrow evening Steve Pearce will go head to head with our far left opponent in a live televised debate on FOX NM and KTSM. . . 

Meantime, the Pearce campaign had to recut its hit ad on MLG and Delta Consulting because the spot attributed info in the ad to a news organization that actually came from a blog authored by former State Sen. Rod Adair.

As for Delta, MLG Dem primary rival Jeff Apodaca is still on the case. The group NM Democrats for Democracy, which he is involved with, sent out a timetable on Delta and the high risk insurance pool it runs that goes back to the 90's. It's well-produced and uncomplicates a complicated subject. While raising questions about the politics involved in the Delta contract there is no smoking gun revealing any criminal acts or intent.

Both campaigns will have debate watch parties tonight. Pearce supporters will the at the Marble Heights Taproom on Montgomery NE and of MLG's ABQ watch party will be at Democratic offices at 1605 Juan Tabo Blvd NE, Suite G.

Reader Richard Flores is one of the 7 percent who are said to be undecided in the newspaper poll. He says he will be watching tonight:

I'm not excited about either candidate. I think MLG's poll numbers reflect more of a Democratic backlash against Trump and his supporters, including the congressional leadership. I think (Dem Lt. Governor candidate) Howie Morales will help the Democratic cause for the upcoming election, but I have lots of questions about MLG's leadership style and her authenticity. Perhaps the debate on Wednesday evening will help to better define her character. I hope so.

ANOTHER TV DEBATE

The candidates for ABQ's U.S. House seat will have their first televised debate this Thursday. Democrat Deb Haaland, Republican Janice Arnold-Jones and Libertarian Lloyd Princeton will go at it beginning at 7 p.m. tomorrow night on KNME-TV in ABQ. The seat is being vacated by Rep. Lujan Grisham who is running for governor. The seat has been in Dem hands since 2009.

GET OUT GARY

How about this for bad timing? With less than 50 days to go before the election Ryan Cangiolosi, chairman of the NM Republican Party, is calling on former NM GOP Governor and current Libertarian Party US Senate nominee to get out of the race:

Chairman Cangiolosi called on Johnson to withdraw his candidacy from New Mexico’s U.S. Senate race: Johnson has a long legacy of service to New Mexico, but our shared beliefs in smaller, more fiscally responsible government would be best served if he withdrew his candidacy. Sunday’s Albuquerque Journal poll painted a stark picture of the state of this race: in a head to head matchup, Republican nominee Mick Rich would be within just a few points of Democrat Martin Heinrich. We call on Gary Johnson to put New Mexico first and clear a path for Mick Rich to become New Mexico’s next Senator.

Poor Mick Rich. The GOP treated him like a rented mule for two years while he wandered in the wilderness seeking support from his party brethren but getting none. Now that the handwriting is on the wall and the R's face a humiliating Senate defeat they are trying to throw Mick a bone--or save themselves from the embarrassment of a major party nominee perhaps not getting even 30 percent of the vote. Even if Gary did get out (which he tells the Journal is “laughable”) Rich would have little chance of winning. Despite that great last name, at last report Mick had less than $200,000 banked.

TRAIL DUST

Sen. Heinrich has released a round radio ads targeted at seven regions in the state. . .

Four judges on the ABQ Metro Court are getting the thumbs down from the New Mexico Judicial Performance Evaluation Commission which is urging voters to vote not to retain them in November. A judge up for retention must get 57 percent of the vote to stay on the bench. Four is one of the highest number of judges ever to be found wanting by the commission. . .

How about a president from our neighboring state of Colorado? Dem Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper is preparing to join the growing list of possible Dem nominees to take on Trump in 2020. Not only is he a long shot but if he were to win wouldn't he have the longest last name in presidential history?

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With more brazen Democrats starting to assert that the '18 Governor's race is closed out in the wake of the ABQ Journal poll showing Republican Steve Pearce trailing Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham 50 to 43, the R's are working overtime to halt that narrative. Here's a GOP operative with the counter punch:

There’s still time for Team Pearce to get points on the board with negative ads on MLG, but Team MLG will of course return fire. Let’s see what sticks to each.

Pearce needs more support from registered Democrats. The key to success for Republicans in NM used to be getting at least 25 percent, but he might be successful with just 15 to 20 percent with high turnout from his base on the Eastside. There are lots of gettable conservative Democrats in the ABQ Metro — places like Valencia and Sandoval counties and even Santa Fe County. He also needs to run up the numbers in San Juan County and register a solid lead in the northwest.

Bottom line: MLG has in no way closed this deal and she could still make a significant mistake that could cause her to dip below 50 percent. It’s still a very competitive race. If I were on Team MLG, I would be very nervous about turnout. 

MLG is at 50 percent in that Journal survey but in the average of the three public polls released since after the June primary she falls short of that critical mark. The Real Clear Politics average of those polls has her with 47.7% and Pearce at 40.3. Pearce still desperately needs a survey that shows him moving past the base conservative GOP vote of 43 percent and MLG stalling out.

R'S SPLIT OVER SWAMP

The R's have their hands full this cycle. They have to deal with what appears to be a unified Democratic Party in a major Democratic state as well as continue to try to patch up their own internal divisions that often pop into public view.

The latest example is the dissing that former GOP Governor Garrey Carruthers administered to GOP southern congressional nominee and State Rep. Yvette Herrell. It took place at the annual Domenici conference in Las Cruces named after former NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici. Carruthers, the former chancellor of NMSU, openly showed his annoyance with Herrell:

Conference host Garrey Carruthers, a former Republican governor of New Mexico, told attendees Herrell had been invited but was in Washington, D.C. on Thursday visiting "consultants and the Republican party or whatever."

Herrell is an unabashed Trump Republican representing the new grassroots of the GOP Carruthers--and Domenici before him--are from the establishment country club wing of the GOP. but it's a wing that no longer flies. To Herrell's supporters DC is the swamp. To Garrey and Pete it was a joyful  political playground.

Really bad news for Carruthers and company may be ahead if Herrell wins the US House seat over Dem Xochitl Torres Small and Pearce loses the governor's race. That would in effect make new Congresswoman Herrell the de facto leader of the NM GOP and in charge of making it more competitive for the future. And you can bet your Domenci conference tickets that Carruthers would not be part of that future.

THE SOUTHERN TRAIL

In case anyone doubted her Trump credentials Herrell recently visited Midland, TX for a fund-raiser hosted by none other than Ohio Congressman Jim Jordan, the conservative who is seeking to become the next speaker of the House and who believes the Congress isn't doing enough to back President Trump.

Meantime, Herrell's Democratic opponent, water rights attorney Torres Small, will come to ABQ for a fund-raiser Saturday. Among the hosts is well-known criminal defense attorney Ahmad Assad. The campaign says the event will be held at 3 p.m. Saturday at 829 Adams SE. More info at brittany@xochforcongress.com.

Torres Small has also come with a new TV spot focusing on immigration. 

The most threatening of those trends is the 87 percent support MLG is getting from Democrats. That is extremely high in a big tent party that is so often factionalized. Look back to 2010 when a late September poll showed Dem contender Diane Denish garnering only 68 percent and went on to lose to Susana Martinez. Obviously, Dems are united this year in their disdain for President Trump and weary of an 8 year Republican run under Governor Martinez. There may be plenty of disagreement among the D's on the issues but not on that.

It's been argued that through clever advertising the conservative Pearce has been successful in repositioning himself as a moderate and appealing to Dem voters. But Dem reader Barry Simon has been among those who have rejected that notion:

Like his president, I don't believe a thing Pearce says. His record tells me who he is, what he believes and what he stands for. I don't need TV ads to inform me of his record. I know his record. And the Democrats I talk to also know who he is. So I'd say stop wringing your hands over the lack of ads against Pearce. I assume the Democratic Party will finally get their act together and put them on the air. But even if they don't, we are onto Pearce.

With 87 percent of Dems rejecting Pearce, Simon's argument seems to be carrying the day. Pearce, as hard as he may try, can't convince the D's that he has shed his old skin and are also exceedingly aware of his friendliness toward Trump. That there is only a tiny slice of voters undecided--7 percent--only buttresses the argument.

There's really only one way for Pearce to get in the game and that's by making MLG unacceptable to some of those Dems and that means running a negative campaign which is filled with its own risks. Former ABQ city councilor, attorney and veteran campaign analyst Greg Payne, an R turned Democrat, shows where we go from here:

The good news for Michelle Lujan Grisham is that she's at the 50% mark and maintains her front-runner status with a little over seven weeks until Election Day. The bad news is that 50% in a Democratic state like New Mexico doesn't mean her election is a done deal. The margin of error in the Sanderoff poll is 3.1%. There's no question the Congresswoman would have preferred to be in the mid to high 50% range.

That's the good news for Steve Pearce. He's only behind by seven points, is winning Independents 55-37% and has over $600,000 more in his war chest than his opponent. The bad news is the Congressman is getting trounced in Albuquerque 53-41% and is only getting 8% of Democrats, even with the endorsement of former Dem Governor Jerry Apodaca.

The race definitely leans toward a victory by Lujan Grisham, barring any sort of debate or campaign gaffe. Pearce's path to victory, if there is one, is to get out the GOP vote in Republican strongholds and depress Democratic turnout--especially in Albuquerque. Which means what it usually does: Pearce has to go negative. But if he does it too late, as we saw in the Democratic primary, it could backfire and push Lujan Grisham into the Governor's Mansion not just with a win, but a mandate.

AND SO IT BEGINS

Pearce started that negative campaign Friday when he hit the airwaves with a spot that is a sore spot for MLG--her role in Delta Consulting. The Pearce ad unloads both barrels but it's not a clean shot. The ad and narration are high end but the script is cluttered, trying to tell too much of a complicated story in 30 seconds. That script:

Michelle Lujan Grisham--exposed by news reports for shady self-dealing--a pattern of corruption so deep, leading Democrats called Grisham's greed morally repugnant. 

Using her connections with the Richardson administration to land exclusive state insurance contracts, Grisham's Delta Consulting group raked in millions, overcharging vulnerable New Mexicans, fleecing poor patients with higher premiums. Now Grisham's top cronies caught red-handed trying to bury evidence. 

Dishonest and Dirty. Shamelessly corrupt. 

Pearce hopes Delta is the dynamite that blows open the race but consultants we spoke with say he will need more than one ad as well as some help from the free media to push the story. He also may need something new on Delta. This first outing repeats the charges heard in the June primary advertising which had no discernible impact on the results. Can he still make it stick?

Those of us in the media have already presented the story (as known so far) with Politico leading the way. Again, it appears it's going to take new angles to move the story back into the headlines.

The Pearce attack was predictable. In response the MLG camp, insiders report, had several ad possibilities ready to go. Hours after Pearce aired his hit, they came with this powerful testimonial ad from Diego Zamora, a Santa Fe pancreatic cancer patient who praised Delta for making sure he was able to acquire health insurance.

INSIDER DEMOS

Some polling cross tabs were not published by the Journal but we appreciate them giving them to us. MLG is winning women 52 to 42 and among men she is winning 49 to 44 over Pearce. In the Senate race Martin Heinrich wins women with 48 percent. Republican Mick Rich has 27 and Gary Johnson has 14. Among men, Heinrich wins 46% to Rich's 26 and Johnson's 19. We cover the Senate poll in more detail below.

WHAT WAR?

It was amusing to see the gubernatorial combatants at a Friday night NAACP forum. They bent over backwards to be civil to one another only hours after broadcast warfare had broken out. It reminded you of two generals atop opposing hills watching the field of battle through binoculars.

CHARACTER COUNTS

This campaign started with predictions that the Guv race would finally come down to a question of character. And so it has. A summer of playing nice guy "Uncle Steve" got him good reviews but he ended with 43 percent--which is where he basically began--and which is the base GOP and conservative vote in any statewide race. Now he must somehow force a major mistake from his rival and/or disclose previously unknown information about her that makes voters pause over their decision. If he can't, the road to the governorship will be closed.

FOLLOWING THE MONEY 

Analyst Payne noted that as of September 3 Pearce had a cash advantage over MLG of about $600k. However, the Journal survey showing her at 50 percent could keep third party money for Pearce firmly on the sidelines. MLG has already seen over $700,000 in TV time bought by liberal interest groups to keep Pearce in his place. Pearce has had no outside help from big conservative money--an important distinction.

A TAXING ISSUE

Pearce did himself a favor late Friday when he announced that he would finally release his tax return for 2017, but it won't be until mid-October because of incomplete info. Pearce said months ago that if MLG released her returns he would release his. She released five years of returns. Pearce is gong to release just one year. That led Dem Party Chair Marg Elliston to declare the Pearce's move was "too little, too late." But it will be enough to prevent any TV ad campaign on the issue from taking hold, as long as he comes with a complete return.

CONGRESS POLLS

Yvette Herrell

We're moving the battle for the southern congressional district seat to "Likely Republican" from "Lean Republican" based on the findings of the ABQ Journal poll. State Rep. Yvette Herrell leads Dem challenger Xochitl Torres Small by a margin of 48 to 41 percent. That's a healthy lead in the traditionally conservative district and while Torres Small has been touted as a fresh face who could pull off the upset, her initial round of advertising did not make a sufficient dent. While the Dem congressional committee in DC has put up some hit ads against Herrell, these poll results could lead them to pull out of the contest before long.

In ABQ, the Journal survey found Dem Deb Haaland with a commanding lead over Republican Janice Arnold-Jones in the race to succeed Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham who is running for Governor. Haaland scored 49 percent to 41 for Arnold-Jones and 3 percent for Libertarian Lloyd Princeton. The race is ranked "Safe Dem" and these numbers give no reason to change that rating. Haaland has not yet gone up on TV but still is only one point away from the critical 50 percent mark. The R's have not won this seat in a decade as the ABQ district gets more Blue so the numbers are not surprising. Haaland would be the first Native American woman to serve in the US House.

SENATE FIZZLE

When Gary Johnson got into the Senate race in mid-August the tongues of La Politica started to wag that the race could be enlivened/ But so far it has been a dud. Heinrich is the only one of the three contenders on TV and Libertarian nominee Johnson and Republican contender Mick Rich have been off the radar. The Journal's Senate survey had Heinrich at 47% in his bid for re-election. Rich came with 26 percent and Johnson lagged with 16 percent.

There's still plenty of time for Gary to liven up the proceedings but he just doesn't seem his old amusing self. The latest:

“Lexington later put it to Mr Johnson that he seemed to dislike campaigning. He nodded. ‘The bad part is you find yourself with people that have really bad breath,” he said. “What comes out of their mouth is just as bad. You cannot make heads or tails out of what the person talking to you is even saying.’”

Gary's fund-raising is coming nowhere near the millions that some of his optimists were predicting. In fact, he loaned himself $100,000 to get things going. Well, at least that's enough to buy breath mints that he can dole out to potential voters.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 

Steve Pearce was close but it was no cigar. In the first ABQ Journal poll, important for campaign momentum in the final weeks, the GOP Governor nominee faltered. Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham managed to get to the critical 50 percent level, compared to his 43 percent. Just one point lower and the poll would have been a psychological boon to the underdog Pearce who in earlier polls had kept MLG below that 50 percent mark. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percent and Pearce may have actually held her below 50, but still. . .

The ABQ Journal poll conducted this past week surveys likely, proven voters. It shows a commanding ABQ lead for MLG of 53% to 41% for Pearce. That basically tells most of the story--if Pearce can't crack the populous Blue BernCo region he will have no chance.

The first ABQ Journal poll of Campaign '18 is coming a bit earlier than expected. It will hit the driveways and digital screens this Sunday morning.

In an era when a wide variety of surveys are released with a multitude of methodologies the Journal survey conduced by Brian Sanderoff is relied on by both parties as an arbitrator of what's really happening with the electorate. The methodology is key. Unlike other public polls released this cycle, the Journal uses live interviewers, the majority of the calls are placed to cellphone users and the voter lists are fresh. And then there's their over 30 year history of polling the state. Some points to keep in mind as we wait for the numbers:

--This first poll could benefit Republican Governor contender Steve Pearce who is widely thought to have kept Dem front-runner Michelle Lujan Grisham from closing out this race early. If MLG is indeed below the critical 50 percent mark, as widely expected, underdog Pearce can continue to argue to donors that he has a chance--even if other early favorable polling to his cause didn't seem to have much success in garnering more cash.

--The survey will come before any TV ads are aired in ABQ congressional district race. Democrat Deb Haaland is widely favored to take the seat but the undecided could loom large, giving some moral support to the uphill candidacy of Republican Janice Arnold- Jones. The problem? Arnold-Jones doesn't have enough money to get on TV in a significant way.

--The poll will arrive when the southern congressional district media campaign has only just started to kick in. The district is "lean Republican" but the early polling could show the race unsettled, helping Dem Xochitl Torres Small keep alive her quest to beat GOP nominee and State Rep. Yvette Herrell.

--The survey will also look at all the down ballot races but, again, we have had no media in any of them. History says Dems will sweep all but one of them. The contest for state land commissioner is in play. The poll could give a boost to Republican Pat Lyons because he is a former two term GOP Land Commissioner with statewide name ID. Dem hopeful Stephanie Garcia Richard scored an impressive primary win but remains largely unknown and will stay that way until she gets going on the tube.

The poll, to be rolled out over a week, will also cover the top issues on the minds of New Mexicans. That will give election watchers a better idea of why they are seeing certain themes from the campaigns.

Unless the paper does a second poll, say a month from now, it will be the lesser known public polls and those from the campaigns that will be filling the gap and setting perceptions. If the Journal's second and final poll is in very late October the major races may have already been put to bed because of large early in-person voting which begins Oct. 20. All of that calls for three polls, but they are not cheap to produce.

BEAGLES AND SUPREMES

Our legal beagles kept their credentials intact. As they predicted on the Wednesday blog, the NM Supreme Court ruled that Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver does not have the authority to reinstate straight party ticket voting. The Beagles scored another coup by correctly predicting the decision would be unanimous--5 to 0.

The SOS's decision to reinstate the straight ticket caused an outcry from professional operatives of all stripes. Those asking the court to overturn her decision were the Republican and Libertarian parties, Unite New Mexico, a nonprofit that advocates for independent candidates; Elect Liberty PAC, which is supporting former Gov. Gary Johnson’s Senate bid and Dem write-in candidates Heather Nordquist of Santa Fe who is challenging Democrat Andrea Romero.

The Justices said determining such matters as straight ticket voting belong to the Legislature--not the SOS--and it's hard to argue with their bipartisan logic.

In reaction to the defeat, Toulouse Oliver did not mention appealing the decision to federal court so straight ticket voting is indeed dead:

The (Court) decision is a disappointing blow to voter access in New Mexico. We should be expanding voting rights and accessibility but, instead, this decision limits the options voters have when casting their ballots and makes voting less convenient. While I stand by my position that straight-party voting is a reasonable option, I respect the judges’ decision and will abide by it. . . “In light of this decision, I am recommitting myself to working toward expanding voter access to the ballot box and advocating for policies such as same-day voter registration, open primaries, and - potentially - vote at home initiatives, in order to better serve New Mexican voters down the road. I hope that those who have opposed the straight-party option, but at the same time claim to support increased voter accessibility, will work with me to enact these important policies. . . 

It's unlikely the court decision will have much impact on the election but it did reveal the growing strength of independents and third parties in the state as the two major parties struggle to attract new members.

As for Toulouse Oliver, who was excoriated from all corners over her attempt to bring back straight ticket voting, she remains a heavy favorite to win re-election against Republican Gavin Clarkson and Libertarian Ginger Grider. While she took a hit in statewide public opinion, it wasn't much. On the other hand, die-hard Dems who praised her for trying won't forget and could provide her support someday if she seeks nomination to another office.

THAT HERRELL HIT

Here's that attack ad on southern GOP congressional contender Yvette Herrell that we mentioned yesterday and that was launched by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The script:

How can we trust Yvette Herrell? Her record filled with controversy. Her ethics questioned. While serving in the state House, Herrell landed nearly half a million dollars in taxpayer funded contracts for her own company, and failed to disclose it to the public.
The Albuquerque Journal called Herrell’s actions egregious. Even fellow Republicans say she can’t be trusted and call her an insider who puts her own self-interest first. We just can’t trust Yvette Herrell.

This is not a new attack. In fact, one of Herrell's GOP foes cut a negative TV ad about it in the June primary. The charges originated with this AP report:

A New Mexico GOP state lawmaker and congressional candidate failed to disclose that her real estate company earned nearly a half-million dollars in contracts with two state agencies over five years, according to an analysis of campaign finance disclosure records,

After that report Herrell filed an updated financial disclosure form, listing a family business that leases office space to state.

In response to the new ad, Herrell's campaign said:

Prior to updating her filing earlier this year, Yvette Herrell was never required by the Secretary of State to disclose income received by the company for properties leased to the State. Still, she filed amended financial disclosure documents even though she is simply a partner in the company but has never been paid or collected money from it. Following the update to her disclosure paperwork, Yvette Herrell received written notice from the Secretary of State's Elections Director stating that "no further action is needed.

Herrell's campaign also called for the TV stations to pull down the ad, saying it was a "smear" on her character and misleading. Well, the ad is based on facts and far from the standards of a "smear." But the political punch it delivers is questionable because the controversy was previously disclosed and still she won the nomination. The D-Trip needs to go back to the research books for fresh stuff if they're going to get Dem challenger Xochitl Torres-Small in this thing.

HERRELL'S FIRST

We have that first ad now from the Herrell campaign. It says Washington needs a "reality check" but there is no mention of Trump and there is no use of the word "conservative" that she leaned on so heavily in winning the GOP nomination. Instead she is said to have "courage and conviction." Nothing fancy but no weaknesses either.

EDUCATION CLASH

That education ad from Steve Pearce continues to get under the skin of MLG's camp. Pearce is encroaching on traditionally Democratic turf so you get this . . .

Michelle Lujan Grisham Announces Educators for Michelle, more than 200 Strong Supporting Michelle for Governor

(Her) comprehensive plan for New Mexico public education has earned her the early support of the New Mexico American Federation of Teachers (AFT), the National Educators Association New Mexico (NEA), and families across the state.

And MLG's latest TV effort is all about education. The script:

Michelle Lujan Grisham (Voiceover): “This is Joshua. He lives in northern New Mexico. What kind of schools will he go to? As he grows older, what will his dreams become? Will he go to college or technical school? Or in a different direction, with an uncertain future.”  “I’m Michelle Lujan Grisham and New Mexico can choose the right path. As governor, I’ll use our permanent fund to invest in our schools, apprenticeships, infrastructure, and small business. It all starts here."

The education ads from both campaign are solid but it is Republican Pearce's pivot to the compassionate center where he frets about the pressure being put on school teachers that is the news. It's all too much for the Dems and you wonder why they aren't yet up with rebuttal ads. In any event Bernalillo County Dem Chair Bill Peifer can't take it anymore:

Are you seriously trying to convince people that a member of Congress who has opposed federal funding for school lunch and breakfast programs suddenly cares about how hungry kids are when they're trying to learn? Do you really think that people will believe that a man who has, for years, supported the failed "test-test-test" educational philosophy of Susana Martinez has finally seen the light and now calls it a "broken test system"? Are you naive enough to think that you can woo teachers with platitudes when you've got a 0% rating from the NEA and have supported the concept of privatizing public schools? You may be able to fool some of the people, but I believe that most New Mexicans are too smart to fall for hypocritical pandering and lies.

Well, Bill, maybe New Mexicans are "too smart" to fall for the "new" Steve Pearce, but when all your team has up on the air are ads trying to bring him down over his ties to the oil industry and environmental issues, you're giving him plenty of room to make his case. Just sayin'. . .

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SOS Toulouse Oliver

The NM Supreme Court ruled unanimously Wednesday afternoon that Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver cannot reinstate straight ticket voting in the November election.

Straight ticket voting in NM is back but The Legal Beagles are betting that it won't be for long. They think straight ticket voting will lose out today when the NM Supreme Court sits to hear a challenge of the decision by Dem Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver to reinstate the straight ticket option  for the November election. This Beagle barks the case out this way:

Here's he most relevant question that Justices will present to the Republican challengers of the straight ticket decision: "I know that you believe this is wrong, but exactly what in the law prohibits it?" This question will be pushed over and over.  The answer?

This may be unconstitutional, but the Supremes don't have to go there. They can decide straight ticket voting was the result of improper rule-making by the SOS and leave the constitutional question alone and an immediate stay will be issued. Next, does the SOS do what the Michigan SOS did, and ask a Federal Court to permit her to do what she wants?

Several of the Beagles predict an unanimous 5-0 vote court vote that shoots down the straight ticket option. We'll know soon enough and will post the results of the court hearing here when they come in.

MORE MONICA WATCH

One of the Alligators of the Dem variety isn't happy that his party doesn't come down harder on ABQ GOP State Rep. Moncia Youngblood whose trial on aggravated DWI has been delayed until Sept. 25:

This is the problem with Dems--not pushing Youngblood out of the race when they had the chance. She is going to delay, delay, delay as deep into the election as possible. Did Dems comment on Youngblood’s delay tactics? Probably not.

Well, one Dem operative did comment on background arguing that it is actually to their benefit that the decision on Youngblood comes closer to when people begin casting their votes. Youngblood is being challenged by Dem Karen Bash whose campaign is counting on outside PAC support to come into the district and help take Younbgblood out.

SOUTHERN CD

Republican Yvette Herrell has joined Dem Xochitl Torres Small on TV in the contest for the southern congressional seat. But Herrell's positive message will have some negative company. According to TV records, the Dem Congressional Campaign Committee has bought time starting today to run a negative hit on Herrell. The seat is "lean R" so it will be interesting to see if the DCCC can soften her up and make this race more competitive.

MORE TUBE

The political arm of Conservation Voters NM has come with its second ad in a series that attackS the environmental record of GOP Guv contender Steve Pearce. The group says it's spending $500,000 on TV and digital media against the congressman so the ads are getting wide exposure. This latest one calls Pearce out for:

voting against common sense safeguards for our air, such as the Bureau of Land Management’s venting and flaring rule which would limit the amount of methane that the oil and gas industry can release into the air.

Pearce is punching back against the ad series:

The parade of special interest groups coming into New Mexico to falsely attack me and to support their ally Michelle Lujan Grisham continues! Who's lying about me this time? Vote Verde -- A left wing group financed by radical New York City leftist Michael Bloomberg, who wrote a $150,000 check to fund the ads. Its spokesman donated to Grisham’s campaign. . .It's clear that Michelle Lujan Grisham has promised to let New York City liberals run our state with their radical policies if she wins this race. Grisham will turn our state over to corrupt special interests and take orders from east coast billionaires.

FUNKY DONKEY (AD)

Leave it to the creative souls at the Taos County Democratic Party to come up with a new party mascot and just in time for the final stretch of Campaign '18. It's your Funky Donkey. Check him out by clicking on the ad.

Funky Donkey looks like a fun dude to hang with it but if you can't be with him make him part of your political world by clicking on the ad and checking out the cool merchandise featuring his donkeyness.

As for the group in Taos that came up with this inspiration, well, you know they know how to do that in the High Country.

EVEN MORE TUBE

Dem US Senator Martin Heinrich, accused by his critics in the Bernie Sanders wing of the party of being a "corporate Democrat," swerves to the left in his latest TV offering apparently to pacify that left wing and ignite some passion for his candidacy for a second term. Take a look:

The biggest con out there is politicians who claim we can’t afford to lower the cost of health care or help our seniors retire with dignity. But then they hand billions in tax breaks to corporations. I say we can’t afford not to invest in our people. That’s why I wrote a bill to lower prescription drug costs and why I’m working to expand coverage. And I will always protect Social Security and Medicare. Because in New Mexico, we take care of each other. 

It's notable that Heinrich mentions his efforts to lower drug costs. That was the very topic Senator Sanders and Heinrich's NM critics scorched him over when he refused to support Sanders' bill to allow imports of cheaper Canadian pharmaceuticals.

After the verbal whipping he received on social media and elsewhere, Heinrich introduced a bill that would allow the imports, saying his bill contained needed safeguards. Heinrich has received ample contributions from the pharma industry but less than most of the 12 other senators who joined him in initially opposing the Sanders measure allowing Canadian imports.

Heinrich is opposed by Republican Mick Rich and Libertarian and former NM GOP Governor Gary Johnson. Neither are up on TV yet. National pundits have the seat ranked "Safe Dem" but the first re-elect for any Senator is Nervous Nellie time because that's when they are often ripe to be picked off. In fact, the last time a sitting NM Senator was knocked out was when first term Republican Jack Schmitt lost his bid for a second term way back in 1982.

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She outraised him better than 2.5 to one in the latest money reports but still he stands and as a result we still have a competitive race for the New Mexican governorship.

Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham overpowered Republican Steve Pearce in the fund-raising department in the July 1 through September 3 period, raising $1.9 million to his $750,000. But the parsimonious ways of the wily Pearce had him squirreling away enough in the bank to actually come out ahead of MLG in cash on hand. He had $1.9 million to her $1.3 million.

She spent a lot of the loot she raised, nearly $1.5 million, while Pearce shelled out a mere $804,000. But for all that spending MLG did not put him away. Pearce has had a solid TV buy as has she, but hers is a much more expensive campaign to run, replete with a myriad of campaign staffers.

The insider polling mavens say she is ahead but is not yet across the critical 50 percent mark. However, while the last poll released by Emerson College had this a 42 to 40 race in favor of MLG, that did not appear to help Pearce much in the fund-raising department.

Combined with a special interest TV ad onslaught against him that is already underway, no third party money yet coming his way and her ability to raise more cash than him in the final stretch, the warning flags are blowing in Pearce's face. In case he didn't get it, the state Dems piled on:

Steve Pearce’s dismal fundraising shows New Mexicans haven’t forgotten his far-right record and will reject him in November.

Still he stands. He can afford to be outspent some because his statewide name ID is already high because of years of service in Congress and his '08 run for US Senate. And so far, Pearce has been running what the car dealer ad guys told us when we were a young media tyke reading about Watergate:

Low budget? Hard message. High budget? Softer messaging.

Pearce's TV ads haven't exactly been a hard sell, but they have been edgier and more direct on key concerns like jobs and education than MLG's. Her polling lead has led her to the big tent softer approach.

The positive campaign has played out from both sides. It will now be the soon to come negative campaign that will decide the matter.

MONEY NOTE