Chavez & Berry

The seemingly passive response in officialdom to this week's news that ABQ is experiencing an exploding crime rate far surpassing any neighboring cities had us wondering what would be happening if Marty Chavez were still Mayor. We blogged that he would probably be hanged in effigy in Old Town in contrast to the current GOP Mayor Richard Berry who surfs along with little public or media scrutiny. From D.C. where he now lives and works, Chavez, a former three term mayor, comes with this :

If I'd handled crime and APD like the current Administration, I would deserve to be hanged in effigy. I'm astonished by the absence of outrage at City Hall. There's nothing easy about fighting crime but fundamentally ABQ needs a fully staffed, well-led and disciplined police department. Officers who break the law need to be held accountable but the rest of the police force needs to know that the Mayor has their back, not just by praising the great work that they perform every day but by fighting for and securing good pay, training and departmental funding. 

 Police make a difference and we shouldn't be surprised when the department shrinks and crime goes up. The current Chief is a nice guy but he's feckless and morale is horrible. Those are firing offenses. I don't envy the challenges confronting the next Mayor, but any candidate who doesn't talk openly and seriously about what has to be done shouldn't be considered seriously by the voters.

Chavez had his share of crime woes when he was mayor, especially in his first term in the 90's when gangs and Cuban refugees caused a record number of murders. In a later term, he wrestled with thefts from the APD evidence room. But he did hold a police chief accountable by firing him and putting in reforms.

The crime wave reports keep rolling in. This one from UNM says campus car thefts rocketed in '15 as they did elsewhere in the city.

Will we get a direct response from the mayoral candidates when they are asked: "Will you retain the current APD Chief and upper command, if elected Mayor?" Or will the current chief and command bail out before the balloting begins? Stay tuned. . .

A BIG BREAK?

Is this the break the state House Democrats need to retake their majority which they lost to the R's in '14?

A southern New Mexico legislative candidate who runs a Boys & Girls Club is being sued for negligence after a former employee was sentenced to prison for sexually abusing two boys. The parents of one boy are suing Republican candidate for District 38 Rebecca Dow, claiming she ignored “obvious red flags” that could have prevented Alejandro Hernandez from hurting two 13-year-old boys during his employment at the Boys & Girls Club of Sierra County in Truth or Consequences. Dow told the Journal: “In our facilities we go to great lengths to ensure the safety of our students, including background checks. I can’t comment on the things they have alleged against me, but I trust the legal system will work.”

Dow is running against Democrat Mary Hotvedt in the Silver City area district. They are battling to replace retiring GOP Rep. Diane Hamilton. R's backing Dow say this one is not over. They are hitting Hotvedt, a family therapist, for advocating open marriage, her stance on the death penalty and taxes, saying she is "not a good fit" for the mostly conservative SW district.

The Dow-Hotvedt battle could be a cliffhanger given the bad news for Dow. Dem performance in the district is 48.9%.

The House is divided 37 to 33 so it's two to tie for the Dems and three to take over.

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The Governor has called a special session of the legislature to begin Friday and appears to be hoping for a train wreck that she can blame on the Senate Democrats just in time for the November election.

The session is essential to resolve the $220 million deficit left over from the budget year that ended June 30. The state must legally pay its bills. But Martinez is insisting that  a trio of crime bills--including one to reinstate the death penalty for child and cop killers--are equivalent in importance to the historic budget shortfall and has placed them on the call of the session.

It appears it is time for the Senate to call the Governor's bluff. With her popularity down to the low 40's and saddled with a Trump presidential candidacy that could very well collapse on the GOP in the final month, Senate Democrats are positioned to take a stand and win, if they can swallow their courage pills.

Plugging last year's shortfall is essential and can be done by sweeping money from various funds. As for the budget year we are now in and which is already projected to have a deficit of nearly $500 million, the Senate Dems are not going to be able to get a deal with this Governor and the radical House Republicans which does not involve violating their pledge not to cut the budgets of the public schools and universities. They can propose additional sweeps to start on that problem and leave the heavy lifting of cuts and revenue enhancement for the 2017 session in January.

As for the crime bills, the Senate might be able to give the Governor something on the "three strikes and you're out" legislation, but the death penalty is a nonstarter. The bill could be referred to Senate Finance Committee where it could be tabled on the grounds of its significant fiscal impact with the pledge to take it up in the '17 session.

The Governor's office says "we hope (the special session) will be short" but accuses the Senate Dems of "playing games," meaning the Dems won't give on the crime bills.

The Senate needs to act fast. The longer the session drags on the more definition it will have in the mind of the public and they will take the hit. They need to be out of there Friday night, let the Governor do her bleating into the weekend and into the start of Balloon Fiesta and be done with it. Then everyone heads out to the campaign trail to fight it out with each side accusing the other of playing political games.

VICTORIA POLITICS

The gruesome murder of 10 year old Victoria Martens started the talk of reinstating the death penalty but now a flip side.

The progressive Center for Civic Action comes with a hard- hitting 30 second TV spot that places blame for the murder of Victoria not on the lack of a death penalty but squarely in the lap of Gov. Martinez.

The ad features a little boy posing questions about the murder to his mother who explains that Victoria was killed by "bad people but she's in Heaven now." The little boy wonders if the "people who protect kids" could have saved Victoria." The mom's answer: "The CYFD should have protected Victoria but Governor Martinez didn't give them the support they needed to save kids like Victoria."

The ad states that APS notified CYFD of concerns about Victoria and that the agency interviewed the little girl but no action was taken. The ad also says there are over 390 vacant positions at CYFD.

The new ad could provide some cover for Democrats fighting the Guv's political machine and its top heavy crime agenda in key House and Senate races. Certainly, the blame game for Victoria's murder is now part of Campaign '16 as we will see at the special session.

The ad is pretty brutal but the buy of $36,000 over a three week period on the big broadcast stations and cable is a break for Martinez. If it were something like $136,000 it just might bring her approval ratings down even further.

The Center is a tax exempt group that is not required to reveal where it gets its donations, but groups associated with liberal billionaire George Soros have in the past given money to the group.

PNM RATE HIKE

Nine percent is better than 14 percent but not by much. The Public Regulation Commission (PRC) fell short of giving the electric utility monopoly the 14 percent boost it wanted but also did not come close to the 6 percent increase that its own hearing officer said should be granted. Pushing through a rate hike that will increase average residential bills by 9 percent in the middle of a long term economic stagnation replete with low wages is going to hurt. A 6 percent hike would not have endangered PNM's financial standing or its stock price. PNM says it will appeal to the NM Supreme Court asking for the full 14 percent.

UNM WOES

Harris

When we blogged of how UNM Executive Vice-President David Harris stormed out of a TV news interview when asked about expensive dinners hosted for donors to the UNM athletic department, we quoted his compensation at $307,000 as stated on the UNM sunshine portal. But it is actually much, much more than that as this UNM reader points out:

David Harris' salary, and several other executives for that matter, contain a significant portion in deferred compensation. That amount never appears in the sunshine portal and is "hidden" compensation. You can only find out how much it is by requesting the contract addendum through an IPRA request. This was routinely done a few years ago by the Journal and others but I don't think anyone has requested it in recent years. It would be interesting to know who gets it and how much they get. I think we would all be surprised.

In 2009, the newspaper did a story noting Harris was then getting $50,000 a year in deferred compensation. Our reliable sources at UNM say that it is now $75,000 per year which makes his refusal to answer questions about taxpayer money at UNM all the more disturbing.

Seven years ago total deferred compensation at UNM topped $1 million. What is it today? The legislature ought to gather the numbers and promptly release them and start the cutting. If VP Harris chooses to walk out because of it, so be it.

INSIDER FRANK INFO

Now more on what we're told was the refusal of the UNM Regents to renew the contract of President Bob Frank and who will soon fill a $350,000 gig created especially for him at the UNM Health Sciences Center. A UNM reader writes:

The fact that the Board of Regents didn't renew President Frank's contract is no surprise. The creation of the position at the HSC is actually quite brilliant. It's a big "screw-you" to Dr. Paul Roth, head of HSC. Make Paul Roth pay the outrageous salary and give Frank a title that are duties that belong to the Dean of the Medical School! That strategy has David Harris written all over it.

In case you missed it Frank and the Regents engineered the demotion of Roth at UNM Health Sciences and he will now come under the purview of the UNM President and Regents. Which leads us to declare that UNM politics are more vicious than a Valencia County cockfight. . .

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"It's the economy, stupid" was the 1992 campaign theme. This year? "It's the anger, stupid!" How else to explain the staying power of Donald Trump who does that Timex watch thing and just keeps on ticking, even after being water boarded by his own hand as often occurred at last night's 98 minute mutual character assassination bout, otherwise known as the first 2016 presidential debate.

Hillary let Trump bury himself, but did he? Probably not. His seemingly authentic anger is echoing across the swing states of America where the raw deal long ago replaced the new deal and where the middle class martini has been replaced by the heroin needle.

People want heir voices validated. They want to be heard. And that's why Hillary Clinton has been unable to completely put this game away. She hears them but he feels them. The debate will go on, despite Trump losing by every conceivable conventional measure last night. These are indeed unconventional times.

We turn to Republican turned Democrat and former ABQ City Councilor Greg Payne for the essence of the showdown:

Clinton prepped for the debate. Trump didn’t. It showed. The question is, what does it mean for the polls? Clinton probably stopped the political momentum Trump has enjoyed since her fainting episode on 9/11. But Barack Obama had a bad first debate against Mitt Romney in 2012 and bounced back. Can Trump do the same? With all the twists and turns this race has had so far, neither campaign should operate under the delusion that the debate finished the race for either candidate.

As for New Mexico, it is colored blue by nearly all the pundits. The Journal will come with a post debate presidential poll this Sunday.

UNM UNCORKED

Harris

There's plenty happening at the University of New Mexico that would give Donald Trump much to rail about. The tone deafness at the Harvard on the Rio Grande seems to have no limits. The latest. . .

You may have thought the arrogance and self-entitlement among the top echelon at the University of New Mexico peaked last week with the creation of a $350,000 job for outgoing UNM President Bob Frank, but you would be wrong. Despite facing millions in budget cuts, UNM's leadership continues to flip the bird at the taxpaying public.

Take a look. . .

David Harris, the  $307,000 a year UNM executive vice-president, walks out of a TV news interview when he is questioned about a $1,300 donor dinner at a Chinese restaurant in Las Vegas, Nevada that included Harris and Gov. Martinez. It was hosted by UNM athletic director Paul Krebs and Harris signed off on it. Harris haughtily declared questions about that taxpayer funded Vegas soirée as "out of bounds" and stormed out of the interview. All of this is shown on TV news with the elderly Harris appearing oblivious to the damage he was doing.

In his interview, granted only after Harris blew up, Krebs, who makes $319,000 a year, is almost equally as arrogant as Harris in defending his bloated expense account for donor dinners. UNM spends more on them than all but one other school in the Mountain West Conference. Never mind that his department is running a deficit of $1.7 million. Just pass the prime rib, please.

The stonewalling of Harris and Krebs really cues up the ball for the legislature to slash and burn the UNM budget. The complete disconnect between what is happening to this state's economy and citizens and the attitudes of Harris and Krebs is stunning. But add it to the pile. The phony Frank job, the electric company wanting a 14 percent rate increase and the mayor of ABQ handing out double digit salary increases to his inner circle are just a few examples of why Donald Trump's bashing of the political elites resonates so loudly.

It's supposed to be public service but for Krebs and Harris et al. it has become a giant feed bag.

A reader piles on:

Joe, You called it correctly. Harris has become one of the most powerful persons in state government. His service(s) in Santa Fe to previous administrations and for the Legislative Finance Committee (LFC),  combined with his sinecure at UNM, has cemented his position as untouchable. Who else will the UNM Regents turn to for advice at this point but David? And who do the politicians turn to for advice on where the bodies are buried? Obviously, I'm concerned.

And ABQ Dem State Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino wrote this to a constituent about the new Frank job:

Unfortunately, this is but the most recent example of the disdain with which the UNM Regents, Administration and I have to say, Governor Martinez, treat the taxpayers of this state. These are not supposed to be lifetime sinecures. But the Martinez-appointed Regents, who would not take such a step without the Governor's blessing, act in total disregard for the fiscal realities facing UNM--and the entire state. Brutal! 

TRUST FACTOR

The news:

ABQ Mayor Richard Berry spoke at the Domenici Public Policy Conference in Las Cruces about restoring public trust in law enforcement, and the efforts his city has taken in that direction.

Hmm. Isn't that kind of like  Dianna Duran and Phil Griego giving a joint speech on ethics?

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Donald Trump isn't finished with New Mexico. Not quite. As his campaign prepares for the big debate tonight they are also keeping an eye on our corner of the world and will give us a wink with a TV ad buy:

Trump's new ad buy will include 13 states, from key battlegrounds such as Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, to new targets of Maine, New Mexico and Wisconsin, Miller said. About $40 million of the ads will play on national TV, 

Trump remains a long shot to carry the state, with FiveThirtyEight's latest odds giving Clinton a 73.3% chance of taking the victory. But even if Trump doesn't get a jump on her here, any over the air NM ads will also be seen in southern Colorado which is part of the ABQ TV market. That matters because:

If Trump were to win all the states where he currently holds any lead in the Real Clear Politics average of polls, he would still need to secure one more state to win a majority of Electoral College votes. Clinton now holds significant 5- to 6-point leads in the polling averages for New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. It's entirely possible that Colorado could end up putting one candidate or the other over the top in November.

The Trump jump into NM got the state Dems attention:

Donald Trump knows that his dangerous and divisive campaign is not resonating with New Mexicans, His desperate attempt to change that is not going to work.

Former NM Gov. Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party presidential nominee, continues to poll well into the double digits here. That's expected to shrink but his presence is juggling the numbers and perhaps encouraging the Trump TV buy in  hopes of an October surprise.  No word yet on the size of the Trump ad buy.

Only one of our many analysts has predicted a Trump victory in the state. Veteran radio talk show host and independent politico Mike Santullo says "conventional rules don't apply this cycle and I believe there is a hidden vote for Trump that will give him the state."

Another independent analyst, former ABQ City Councilor and attorney Greg Payne, says Clinton's polling performance here has been "anemic" but in the end he expects her to carry the state in a "relatively close race."

UNM OUTRAGE

Bob Frank

Trump was never supposed to get this far but the latest news from the University of New Mexico provides more evidence on why this deeply flawed anti-politician continues to appeal to so many who see the political and business elites out of touch with them and their daily lives.

In a move that is giving UNM critics a field day and prompting shouts of outrage on social media, UNM President Bob Frank announces he will step down from his $362,000 position next year. That's a bit surprising, but then the shocker. Instead of following custom and taking a regular faculty position in the area of his expertise (psychology) after completing his presidency, a brand new position is being created for Frank at the UNM Health Sciences Center (HSC) at a salary of...you guessed it...$350,000.

The move is all the more startling coming as it does against the backdrop of an historic state budget deficit that is going to see the UNM budget cut by millions in the year ahead. It has already prompted Frank to slap on a hiring freeze at UNM. Former ABQ Journal politics editor John Robertson comes out of retirement to take this one on:

. . . The Frank exit deal, with. . . a Health Sciences Center sinecure, was a way to avoid a fight over a second-term contract for the presidency. I am still left to wonder if the Regents or the governor want a new president and mystified by the decision to create a new $350,000 position in the midst of a budget crisis, on which Frank briefed school employees just the day before his exit announcement. If the Regents or the governor are behind it, New Mexico is not served well by constant turnover in top leadership positions, in academia or elsewhere. . . Why treat New Mexicans like a bunch of unruly kids and keep us on a diet of smoke and mirrors? Maybe my questions should be most immediately addressed to the chairman of the board of regents: You owe us more, too.

Frank recently joined with the UNM Regents to engineer a power grab that has UNM Health Sciences losing its independent governance and coming under the control of the Regents and the UNM president. Now Frank is going to go over there and be under the  supervision of Health Sciences boss Paul Roth, the man whose power he diminished. Mama Mia! Senator Alligator analysis is essential:

Joe, it was widely known that Frank's contract was not going to be renewed by the Regents. He is very disliked at HSC but he struck a deal with the Regents to get this new job created in exchange for leaving the presidency without incident. The former president always gets to teach in his field at a salary comparable to the highest in the department . However, it is my understanding the highest paid professor at UNM psychology makes about $150,000 so they create this new position and Frank gets $350,000. And its written so they do not have to consider any present employees for the position. 

The last couple of Regents appointed by Gov. Martinez-- Rob Doughty and Marron Lee-- are political puppets of Susana's and appear totally out of touch with UNM. A national search for a new president will cost at a minimum of $250k-$500k to a University that is hurting financially.

Interestingly this gives UNM Athletic Department Director Paul Krebs a free ride until a new President is chosen, even when Wisepies Pizza defaults in three months, as expected, on its $600,000 payment for naming rights for the UNM Pit.

Higher education watchers have been concerned that the Legislature will especially target the universities and colleges as it looks for a path out of the budget crisis. UNM is giving them more reasons for doing just that. And don't even ask about the role of Gov. Martinez and political svengali and longtime UNM executive Vice-President David Harris in this mess. Their fingerprints are everywhere.

While UNM may spit in the eye of the taxpayers with the Frank deal, they could get the middle finger in a Trump like gesture from lawmakers and a community fed up with the never ending cycle of self serving campus politics.

Meanwhile, expect his idea to pick up steam in the months ahead:

Karen Gardner, who works in UNM’s College of Arts and Sciences, said that after reviewing the number of salaried employees on the UNM campus who are paid more than $100,000 a year--and some even more than $200,000--she deduced that cutting those salaries by 5 percent could save some $8.3 million in one year. 

APD AND NCIC

This is always a temptation for wayward political machines and law enforcement insiders hoping to smear their foes, and now someone in authority is speaking out:

The executive director of the Civilian Police Oversight Agency has raised questions about how thoroughly Albuquerque police investigate officers who possibly misuse a federal law-enforcement database. Edward Harness, the director, said at a recent public meeting that he reviewed a case in which an officer accused of misusing the database in a civilian complaint was cleared of wrongdoing. The case marked the third time that Albuquerque police’s use of the National Crime Information Center database has been the subject of a complaint against an officer.

And a reader adds:

The NCIC data base contains confidential information not available to the general public. The unauthorized use or personal use of the data base by a police officer is a federal felony. According to the article, the APD Internal Affairs on more than one occasion has cleared police officers of improperly using the data base for personal use and “there is a pattern of it being taken lightly by APD.” This is further evidence that APD cannot and will not police itself. Internal Affairs needs to be removed from APD and the functions assumed by the City’s Inspector General in conjunction with the City’s Internal Audit Department, both which have subpoena powers and investigators.

And what will the mayoral candidates have to say about all that--and their plans for APD if they are elected next year? Stay tuned. . .

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click to enlarge

Here he is. Belen attorney Greg Baca, hoping to take on the role of giant killer this year and defeat Gov. Martinez's archival, Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez.

This piece touting Baca's military service is part of putting a positive halo on the GOP challenger before waves of anti-Sanchez attack ads pour into the district financed, like this piece, by the AdvanceNM Now PAC, an arm of the Guv's political machine.

But the machine may need an oil job because once again as the action heats up it starts to leak. This AdvanceNM strike on an ABQ state senator is an example:

In what might be the election season’s most convoluted attack ad, a conservative political action committee (Advance Now) is using a liberal group’s criticism of the Republican governor to condemn a Democratic state senator. The ad’s target, Sen. Daniel Ivey-Soto, D-Albuquerque, describes it as “the governor’s PAC criticizing me for agreeing with the governor.” The flier’s central claim — that Democrats are attacking Ivey-Soto for his support of a law on public access to streams — is simply false.

Come on, Jay. You can do better.

Back on Senate Leader Sanchez, what if the long shot upset were to occur and he was defeated but the Dems, as expected, hung on to control of the Senate? Who would be the new majority leader? The consensus pick is Santa Fe Sen. Peter Wirth who sports more liberal stripes than Sanchez.

As for the week's big political development, the Guv's announcement that she will ask the special budget session of the legislature to veer off course and consider reinstatement of the death penalty for child and cop killers, a Santa Fe Dem state rep comes with the argument that might resonate with voters some:


Matthew McQueen (@mcqueenfornm) 9/21/16, 1:32 PM

Cutting through all the noise and some distorted polling, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight pegs the chances of Hillary Clinton carrying New Mexico over Trump at 79% to his 19.5%. And that's why the presidential campaign in NM can't be spotted by even the most powerful radar out at Kirtland.

BUDGET BURROWING

Bruce Krasnow

This next one has been bugging us as well as a number of our bean counter readers. Why are we getting different numbers on the state budget deficit from our leading news organizations?

ICYMI, the ABQ Journal reports the leftover deficit for the budget year that ended June 30 is $131 million but the AP and the New Mexican put it at $220 million, For the current budget year the Journal says the deficit estimate is $458 million. The New Mexican says it "might be" $430 million.

No one has covered the budget crisis in more detail than the New Mexican's Bruce Krasnow so to try to clear this up we tapped into his well of knowledge.

Joe, The recent revenue estimate lays out the numbers--the August 2016 adjustments--say a $223 million for 2016 and $431 million for 2017, but the situation is not that defined. 

First off, the 2017 number on Aug. 24 was an estimate based on no incoming data for even one month into the fiscal year. That hard data didn't come until last week when the state sent gross receipts tax disbursements to cities and counties for July. So to report a precise number on what is essentially an estimate is probably not helping readers. . . 

Given the volatility of revenue the last two years, we know the estimates will change. In fact, the $431 million number already has changed, but economists haven't yet determined what that change is. Budgets in current spending years are always moving targets, so to report approximately $430 million or some $400 million or at least $400 million in stories is probably more accurate. . .

The 2016 deficit number should be more precise. The year is over and the money is already spent. What's so hard about counting dollars already out the door? The answer lies in whether one thinks the state can have a negative reserve. I have refrained from saying the reserve is negative. How can that be? Once an account hits zero, there is nothing left to draw from.

But in the world of general fund accounting, there you have it on page 13 of the August LFC report...."Total FY16 ending balances were $130 million; however, that includes $219 million in the tobacco permanent fund, which cannot be used without legislative authorization."

So the revenue estimate assumes the Legislature will tap into the tobacco money. Only then do we get above zero. Until then we are in the hole $90 million.

The public health advocates will say you can't legally take all the tobacco money -- the statute says the general fund can appropriate enough "to avoid an unconstitutional deficit."

Does "an unconstitutional deficit" mean they can take it all to both bring reserves back to zero and to move forward with a balance sheet that shows a small surplus, which would mean there is a $223 million shortfall? Or can they only take only enough to bring the budget into balance with zero reserves to close out 2016, which means a deficit of maybe $90 million?

Thanks, Bruce. The bean counters are in ecstasy over this debate, while the rest of us of work overtime to stop our eyes from glazing over. But we think we get it.

We would add that we reported this week that one of our legislative sources says using capital outlay money instead of the tobacco settlement money to address last year's deficit is now on the table.

And on that dizzying note, thanks for stopping by this week.

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Sec. Damron

Let's start out this Thursday on the econ beat. . .

The fiscal woes that have spread across the state and wreaked havoc with the budgets of small town New Mexico are now lapping up against the shores of the big city.

Officials report gross receipts tax collections in ABQ are down three percent for July and August compared to last year, and if it stays that way the city will come up $9 million short in its budget planning to the year. The slowdown is due, in part, to the crash in energy prices, but ABQ continues to add low-paying jobs in service industries that do not generate the spending that moves the gross receipts needle . . .

The stark reality facing the state's higher education system that we've been blogging about for a number of years is finally garnering the attention of policy makers in a serious way. State Higher Eduction Secretary Barbara Damron uttered the feared word "consolidation" in discussing the future of what she says is the most '"decentralized" higher education system in the nation.

There are nearly three dozen colleges and universities spread across the state, vigorously supported by hometown state legislators, but Damron points out that declining state revenues and falling enrollments mean the day of reckoning is fast approaching:

Damron did not lay out proposals for consolidating New Mexico’s independently governed colleges, universities and branch campuses. But she cited statistics showing that the number of campuses nationwide has grown 9 percent since 2007 even as enrollment has fallen from its peak in 2010 and said, “There is potential for consolidation.”

“The market for students can no longer support the number of institutions we have today,” she said, speaking in the context of national trends.

Consolidation of higher ed has had a day or two in the sun in past years, but soon retreated as state revenues blossomed. But with the state now clearly in a longterm (secular) economic stagnation the discussion and debate is here to stay.

Damron says her department will release a strategic plan for the future of higher ed a year from now so it's going to fall to the next governor since '17 is the last 60 day legislative session under Martinez. That gives the secretary an opportunity to confront the politics and recommend specific consolidation moves so the state can get on with the inevitable.

MORE VOX POPULI

By popular demand, herewith is another edition of reader Vox Populi as the fast approaching election and its issues draw more attention.

Reader Michael Corwin writes:

Interim legislative committees can conduct hearings year round. Why not conduct hearings on CYFD and the NM Department of Corrections for their abject failure in protecting children> Why wait for the Attorney general to move on a request for an investigation by Senator Padilla when hearings can be held. Sure CYFD Secretary Monique Jacobson and Corrections Secretary Greg Marcantel will probably be no show for the hearings, but a hearing is a hearing. Time for the Democrats to take the bull by the horn.

Readers continue to come with ideas on how to resolve the state budget crisis. Most of them are bound to be controversial in some quarters. Here's one from reader Charles:

20 years ago NM passed a bill allowing Native American to sell tax free gasoline. Every gallon of gas has a road repair tax included in the sale of that gasoline. Gas sold by Native Americans does not pay this even though all cars buying their gas are driving on NM roads. It is estimated that this has cost the state road fund at least a billion dollars Lawmakers should tax all gas sold in the state. When cars fly we can revisit this tax free gas.

Reader Michael Casaus writes:

Joe,  I was surprised you didn't cover the damning 5,000 word investigative report the New Mexican published ("Under Martinez, a more favorable environment for Helena Chemical") where they exposed a pay-to-play scandal between the governor and Helena Chemical Company. What does $55,000 in campaign contributions to the governor get you under her administration? Helena Chemical got $1.6 million in additional state contracts and were no longer required to carry an air quality permit (despite a history of air quality violations and hundreds of thousands of dollars in fines). Not a bad investment. Meanwhile, residents of Mesquite, including my family, still have to live next door to a chemical facility that is no longer subject to air monitoring or inspections.

DEFENDING JACOBSON

Sec. Jacobson

Reader Steve Hemphill claims to have some insider info and writes in support of Children, Youth and Families Department Secretary Monique Jacobson:

. . . The productive ranks inside CYFD are incensed at Sen. Michael Padilla's efforts to oust Jacobson. She has shown them to be a responsible and capable leader, learning the ropes from the inside. She is in a tough situation right now, since the interviews with Victoria Martens are in fact confidential. .  One would expect heads to roll soon, and from descriptions of Jacobson she is firmly planted in the middle of it all and doesn't have time for political gamesmanship while being a professional right now. Padilla's call is typical of old time NM politics, but AG Balderas has integrity so one should not expect a knee jerk reaction from him.

Sen. Padilla has called for Jacobson to be suspended while an independent investigation of CYFD takes place regarding the murder of 10 year old Victoria Martens. Padilla has asked the AG to launch such an investigation.

ART ATTACK

There's much concern over Mayor Berry's ART project which will run rapid buses down a big stretch of Central Ave. After a court battle allowing the project, the construction is underway. Los Ranchos architect John Hooker writes:

Joe, How much does the mayor and the city council want to punish Nob Hill businesses with his ART project? To start, I can't imagine why his staff approved that monstrous "Bourbon Street" themed condo and parking building on the SE corner at Carlisle with its concrete wall along the existing, narrow sidewalk. That's pretty grim by itself. Now comes the chaos of construction and the loss of customers from then on.

Curb parking spaces can offer up to $200,000 in added retail sales each for local businesses. But the city will take out spaces through Nob Hill without improving the pedestrian/destination experience for bus riders. (They promise to replace 50 spaces throughout the ART corridor and add another 50 more by providing 99 new parking spaces at the fairgrounds - except during September when school starts . . . .) How much benefit can slightly "improved" bus service have for businesses in Nob Hill after they lose convenient short term parking? Do these public servants and contractors really want to destroy existing retail and restaurant businesses there in favor of whoever might move into the shuttered properties that remain when the "new service" starts?

THE BOTTOM LINES

We inadvertently gave former State House Majority Whip Antonio "Moe" Maestas a promotion Wednesday. We referenced him as the current whip, but when the R's took over the House in '14 he lost the title. The current Majority Whip is Republican Alonzo Baldonado. . .

And in a first draft we said we were told the special session of the legislature is now expected Friday the 28th but the 28th is a Wednesday. We apologize for not checking the calendar. We're taking ourselves out of the special session guessing game. We have plenty else to keep us occupied.

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Well, it won't be boring. That's for sure. Gov. Martinez has thrown a Molotov Cocktail into a planned special legislative budget session by calling on lawmakers to reinstate the death penalty for child and cop killers and corrections officers. As a result, Santa Fe's Roundhouse will soon be filled with fierce and polarizing debate, Machiavellian political maneuvering and the stench of political fear coursing through its fabled corridors.

Facing a fierce battle to maintain GOP control of the state House and a burning desire to increase Republican power in the state Senate, Gov. Martinez threw all caution to the wind and bet her poker hand of two shocking murders of NM policemen and the heinous slaying of 10 year old Victoria Martens. She believes public outrage over them will trump the hand held by the Democrats--an economy in a near death spiral with the nation's second highest unemployment rate and an historic state budget deficit spread out over at least three years that could top $1 billion.

The irony is that the state's economic disintegration under the administration has enabled the crime epidemic which has led to unimaginable acts of violence against children and which Martinez will now attempt  to use to her political benefit.

Former State House Majority Whip Antonio "Moe" Maestas of ABQ reacted this way:

Let’s call this what it really is - a campaign ploy to distract from complete economic failure and the Governor's disastrous CYFD that failed to protect Victoria Martens.

But using wedge issues like repealing driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants helped the R's bolster their base and take the House for the first time in decades in 2014. Now they seek to hold that control for another two years with a divisive and emotionally-laden call for reinstatement of the death penalty.

It's emotional and not practical because it has no chance of passing after being repealed in 2009. The Catholic Church, instrumental in that repeal, went on high alert in the aftermath of Martinez's announcement with the NM Conference of Bishops saying:

It is evident that the Governor has chosen to use the deaths of police officers and children to drive a politically-motivated action to place the death penalty on a very short special session purely for the purpose of politics and campaign jockeying. We call on the Governor to recant her call for placing this on the agenda of the special session. We also call on the legislators to reject this proposed agenda item in the special session.

DEATH PENALTY POLITICS

Most of of our Alligators agreed that the Martinez death penalty play would have the most impact with GOP base voters who strongly favor it as well as conservative independents. Both groups could be encouraged to get to the polls in November when the inevitable happens and the penalty is rejected. Turnout in a presidential election year skews more Democratic. Increasing GOP and conservative independent turnout a couple of points in the key swing districts could determine control of the state House where the R majority is currently 37 to 33.

Then there is the case of Senate Majority Leader Sanchez and Martinez's intense dislike (hatred?) for him. It will be Sanchez who will have to do the gritty work and kill the death penalty in the Senate. It is expected to quickly and easily pass the House. With that done, Martinez and her political adviser Jay McCleskey can go to work on Sanchez's re-election bid in Valencia County where he faces opponent Greg Baca.

The cost of the unsuccessful Martinez effort to take Sanchez out in 2012 went over $1 million and it appears it will be as much, if not more, this time. Getting rid of Sanchez would be the ultimate political scalp for Martinez and help ease the many self-inflicted wounds that have plunged her approval ratings into the low 40's (although an Internet outlier poll released Tuesday claimed she was at 50% approval).

NOT SO SECRET TALKS

The secret talks among top legislators and the administration aren't so secret to our Alligator sand Wall-Leaners. They fill us in. . .

It is State Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith who is the lead negotiator with the Martinez administration as they try to strike a deal to close two years of  budget deficits. The one left over for the year that ended June 30 is put at $131 or $220 million, depending on which news account you are reading.

There is some good news on that front for those opposed to raiding the Tobacco Settlement Fund of over $200 million to resolve that deficit. Our insiders say a deal is brewing where some $80 million or more of unspent capital outlay funds would be used to close last year's budget hole. So what about using the tobacco fund to close the current year's deficit? Not so fast. The bean counters warn that the state could risk a lawsuit by using that money for other than its intended purpose of anti-tobacco education.

The deficit for the current budget year that began July 1 is put at $431 million and could go higher or lower. The total budget is $6.2 billion.

As Martinez  continues to resist tax increases or closing tax loopholes at the talks,  speculation is  growing that her end game is laying off a large number of state employees. Already nine workers from the Tourism Department have felt the axe. Polling probably shows little sympathy for public employees so Martinez is positioned to take any heat--but not until after the election.

We're talking huge amount of dollars and if Martinez does not find a way to come to the table she eventually risks splitting her Republican caucus. Will they stand by if the layoffs reach into the hundreds? What about the business community and the conservative newspaper? Are they comfortable that the special session is now going to be consumed in good measure by criminal justice and not the ailing state budget and its emptied reserves?

Those questions will likely await the post-special days. Faced with gridlock with the Governor, lawmakers may opt to fix last year's mess (which they must by law) but leave the mammoth current year deficit to the January session. That will give them much less time to resolve it but in the middle of the political season and with few of them wanting to touch anything remotely looking like a tax increase, off they will go to campaign.

NASTY DAYS

Sen. Padilla

The nasty days of Campaign '16 are surely upon us as the always combative language of the Martinez administration grows even nastier. For example, when ABQ State Senator and Majority Whip Michael Padilla proposed that Attorney General Balderas form a nonpartisan committee to investigate the CYFD's handling of the notorious murder and dismemberment of 10 year old Victoria Martens, CYFD let the vitriol rip:

It’s unfortunate that Michael Padilla is playing partisan politics with this tragedy. Frankly, Michael Padilla lost all credibility after multiple women filed sexual harassment suits against him and won, forcing taxpayers to shell out more than $250,000 for his bad behavior. Among other allegations, the city found that he pestered female employees to go on dates with him and said women should stay at home, “make tortillas,” and “clean the house.” We take every child abuse case seriously, but we don’t take the political grandstanding of a discredited politician seriously.

Not to be outdone, an ally of Padilla's released the attack dogs on the Governor:

Discredited politician? Martinez should know something about that, having been in a drunken stupor at her Christmas party where staffers were throwing liquor bottles from the balcony of a swank hotel. The slurring Governor then berated the hotel workers and police who were called in to try to quiet them down. Yes, Susana Martinez knows something about being a discredited politician.  The Governor needs to lay off the liquor and quit laying the blame for her failures on those trying to reverse them.

And there's still a month and a half to go, folks.

DOUBLING DOWN

The ABQ Free Press is doubling down. Dan Vukelich, editor of the alternative bi-weekly paper which we write for, says the paper is going weekly with its September 28th edition. And he says there will be a change of tone along with the change of schedule:

When it comes to local news, we will remain the hard-hitting paper we are known for, but we will be more of an open tent as we cover the arts and entertainment world and other topics more fully. We are broadening our reach, highlighting more aspects of our city and recognizing the positive along with the negative.

Vukelich, a former reporter for the ABQ Tribune, also says the Free Press has snagged high-powered sales rep Sarah Bonneau, former sales director for the weekly Alibi.

The Free Press was brought to life two years ago with funding from ABQ personal injury attorney Will Ferguson who remains co-publisher with Vukelich and continues to support the venture.

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Before we kick off another edition of Vox Populi, we take note of some strong language from ABQ City Council President Dan Lewis concerning APD and the recent findings of Federal Monitor James Ginger that the department's upper command is stonewalling mandated federal reforms. Lewis, a Republican and possible candidate for mayor next year said this at last night's council meeting:

Why should the City Council or even the citizens of Albuquerque continue to have confidence in the leaders of APD in light of the monitor’s report?

We wondered aloud on the blog Monday on when the many mayoral candidature starting to line up as well as the city council would start saying something meaningful about the ongoing controversy over APD. Lewis is the first to do so. He was joined in his doubts by Dem Councilor Diane Gibson. Meanwhile, Republican Councilor Brad Winter defended APD and Mayor Berry's administration, saying of Monitor Ginger:

What he does is, he throws this bomb, and then he’s nowhere to be found.

We just might get a debate yet on the future of public safety in this crime riddled city. Just maybe.

Now on to Vox Populi:

State Senate Majority Whip Michael Padilla is calling for an independent review of the management of the Children Youth and Families Department tn the wake of the shocking murder of 10 year old Victoria Martens. Reader Richard Flores agrees:

Although it is not clear that CYFD had culpability in the Victoria Marten's incident, it is clearly time for an independent review of the department. Even if the incident was not preventable, the public perception is that CYFD "dropped the ball" again. Predictably, the Secretary invoked the Children's Code as the reason she could not discuss details of CYFD's involvement with the family. The agency will do an internal review of how the case was handled, but the results will never be known to the media, the public or to the legislature. That's why Senator Padilla is right in advocating for an independent review of CYFD.

Padilla says he will be writing a letter to AG Balderas requesting an independent investigation of CYFD which would be conducted by a "nonpartisan group of former members of the state judiciary."

BOOZE TAX

Marie Claire of the Santa Fe Prevention Alliance writes:

Thanks for including Mike Smith’s letter in your September 14 blog. It was great to see him give a shout out to Alcohol Taxes Save Lives & Money. Just to note a 25 cent a drink increase of the liquor excise tax is projected to raise an additional $154 million dollars. Mike stated it was $54 million dollars. More e more information about Alcohol Taxes Save Lives is here.

That's a lot of money that could go to help resolve the state deficit but the ABQ metro has recently seen a boom in the brewery biz and it's gearing up to fight any increase.  Also, Gov. Martinez would be certain to veto any new alcohol taxes.

TESLA TALE

This reader reminds us that before Facebook it was Tesla sending the economic planners here into ecstasy, but it appears we dodged a bullet by not getting the electric car producer to locate its gigafactory here:

Despite recent denials by Tesla's CEO Elon Musk, the company is far, far behind in keeping its Gigafactory promises to Nevada. Also, Musk's claim that "there is no way for Nevada to lose" is simply untrue. Nevada is already losing. Nevada will have a difficult time recovering some of the benefits. And, others are gone for good because Nevada lacks any legal right to recover them. None of this would matter if Tesla had enough money to finish the Gigafactory. But it doesn't, and absent another capital raise, it's doubtful it ever will.

DATELINE DEMING

Santa Fe reader Bruce Wetherbee comments on the big business news in Deming, the hometown of Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith:

Hello Joe, More great news ... not really. Kmart in Deming is closing at end of year. It appears John Arthur Smith will need to by his Arm and Hammer laundry detergent and dress shirts somewhere else other than Kmart. after the first of the year. Maybe he can slip over the line and buy his stuff in Mexico as their economy is probably doing a little better than New Mexico's! But he better do it before that wall gets built.

PEARCE POWER

Rep. Pearce

Reader Karl Rysted writes from Las Cruces:

Joe, I've been enjoying your blog for the last couple of years since I moved here from Oklahoma. I'm a lifelong D and there's something I can't understand so please help...why does Congressman Steve Pearce do so well down here? I mean, I know he picked up a ton of votes in Lea County as expected, but why can't a D carry Doña Ana County in that race?

Good question, Karl. Pearce has proven to be a tough competitor for Dems in the southern congressional district even though the D's outnumber the R's there by six percentage points.

Dona Ana County is key to any hope the Dems have to take the district. In 2014 Pearce managed a 52 to 48 win in the largest and most liberal county in the district. And district wide he has been performing north of 40 percent among Hispanic voters, far above most other GOP candidates.

The Dems would need a powerhouse candidate to take Pearce out. A better bet would be when Pearce, 68, retires. Speculation continues to bounce around that Pearce may seek the 2018 GOP gubernatorial nomination. If he does, that would be the time for the Dems to pounce with a strong Hispanic candidate with middle of the road politics.

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New Mexico pollster Brian Sanderoff must have thought his presidential polling for the ABQ Journal this cycle was going to be a walk in the park. But it's turning into at least a jog for him as a couple of polls out there actually show our state unsettled when it comes to the Trump-Clinton contest. Much skepticism is in order but. . .

Over the weekend Reuters/Ispos came with a survey that actually has Trump winning the state 43 to 38 percent. That had the Dems grabbing for their defibrillators but they could take comfort in the fact that only 141 likely voters were surveyed, the poll was done over nearly a month and it was done online and not with live telephone calls.  Still, it was enough for the pro-Trump Breitbart site to trumpet the survey which we linked to above.

Earlier this month a Morning Consult poll--also done online--showed Clinton with 36 to Trump's 35, Johnson with 14 and the Green Party's Stein scoring 3 percent.

Like everything else this year, the polling is simply crazy. That neither Clinton or Trump is currently buying any broadcast TV here reveals they don't believe NM is suddenly in play. That's where Sanderoff comes in. He tells us he will conduct his first survey of the contest after the September 26 presidential debate. The results will hit the streets October 2. Research and Polling has a long, successful track record in polling New Mexico and understands the nuances. If its survey has Trump leading the defibrillator business is going to boom.

While Clinton is expected to take our state's five electoral votes what happened to the Hispanic vote being a no-brainer for her? The WaPo reports:

While Clinton holds a significant lead over Republican rival Donald Trump in every poll of Hispanic voters, less clear is whether these voters will turn out in numbers that Democrats are counting on to win. Clinton trails President Obama’s 2012 performance in several ­Latino-rich states, including Florida, Nevada, Colorado and Arizona. In those same states, on which Democrats’ prospects of retaking the Senate hinge, some down-ballot Democrats remain unknown to many Hispanic voters.

LOBBYISTS WARM UP

With Gov. Martinez vowing to never approve a tax increase but perhaps open to considering closing "tax loopholes," Santa Fe's legion of lobbyists will finally have some real work to do in the '17 legislative session. The biz lobbyists have had it pretty easy under this Governor, simply putting her no new taxes pledge under their pillows at night and in the morning sending their invoices to clients.

The enormity of the state's fiscal mess is now putting a lot of possibilities on the table.  That means there are going to be winners and losers. There are dozens of "loopholes" in the tax code that are contributing to the money shortage. Behind each of them stands a well compensated lobbyist ready to protect it.

That's why the Governor's no new taxes pledge will continue to come under pressure. There may be a way to get a few of those loopholes closed but with the lobbyists forming a Praetorian guard, getting enough of them repealed to shore up the entire budget is as likely as a lobbyist refusing to pick up  John Arthur Smith's bar tab.

But the way, the smart money is still saying that a special legislative session expected soon will only tackle the $200 million plus deficit left from the budget year that ended June 30. As for the current fiscal year--with a deficit forecast of $431 million or more--that bundle of joy will be left to the 60 day '17 session. The obvious reason is that all 112 lawmakers are up for election in November and are in no mood to rock the boat.

And, yes, we are aware that the ABQ Journal, The New Mexican and the AP are using different numbers to describe the state budget deficit. A spokesman for the Legislative Finance Committee says there "are plenty of ugly numbers" to choose from. An explanation beyond that is above our pay grade, but we're working on it.

THE OIL BEAR

The historic Bear Market has so ravaged Artesia in the SE oil patch that the city government there is now a charity case:

Police and firefighters in Artesia will not have their salaries slashed thanks to an anonymous donor. The city announced immediate pay cuts of 10 percent last month for all employees for the fiscal year that began July 1. Officials say the cost-cutting measure was necessary in the wake of a revenue decline from the oil and gas industries. Mayor Phil Burch says a "local entity" came forward this week with a gift that will ensure all first responder personnel receive their normal wages for the rest of the year. Burch did not disclose the amount but it would likely be around $320,000. . . 

The money is probably coming from a local oil company which we await the mayor to identify.  Talk about "dark" money.

WATCHING BRACK'S BACK

Judge Brack

We don't want to overuse the word "crisis" but there's another one in addition to the state budget that is ongoing and resisting resolution. That would be the culture of the APD command and control structure and its obstinacy toward the reforms mandated by the Justice Department.

The Federal Monitor appointed to see that the top cops get the job done, Dr. James Ginger, has finally run out of patience:

A special report by the independent monitor. . . took the department to task for a look-busy approach to holding officers accountable for use-of-force incidents and fostering a “culture of low accountability.” The report released Friday was exceptional in that it was not part of the monitor’s scheduled series of progress reports. . . It was sparked by a use-of-force incident in October 2015, in which four Albuquerque Police Department officers used knee strikes to the body and head of suspected car thief as they arrested him.

The special report says that while the department presents itself publicly as willing to change how it polices both citizens and officers, the behind-the-scenes reality is that APD has “almost no appetite for correcting behavior that violates existing policy.” Within the department’s system for monitoring use of force by officers, the report says, “each step appears preconditioned to rationalize or explain away officer conduct.”

Monitor Ginger reports to U.S. District Court Judge Robert Brack who may be waking up and smelling the coffee, instead of the barbecue lunch he recently served to celebrate the alleged "progress" of the reforms. Retired APD Sergeant Dan Klein says Brack's federal bench seat just got hotter:

What will Judge Brack do? This is the big question. Ginger’s report is for Brack, not for us. Brack is running the risk of looking like the the federal judge who oversaw the Oakland PD for 13 years (while a huge sex scandal was happening right under his nose). Ginger has made sure everyone knows he will not ignore anything. This is good. Now it is up to Brack to force the changes. 

The worse thing Brack could do is sanction the city. Why? Because APD Chief Eden and Mayor Berry will just write a check. It is not their money. Brack must do something to make Eden and Berry feel his wrath directly. Hold them in contempt? Probably not. Fine them as individuals? Not sure that he could. Recommend Eden be removed? Maybe. Place a civilian over Eden? Maybe. It is up to Judge Brack. He must do something to get the attention of Eden and Berry. How does Brack make Berry understand that he is not messing around and that APD will not become Oakland?

Brack has been seen as having the back of Chief Eden and Berry. Now he needs to start watching his own back as entrenched upper APD command signals they appear to be willing to stonewall the federal government.

And what about our nine sleepy city councilors? You could give that bunch triple caffeinated lattes and they would still slumber, but Klein takes a shot at awakening them:

Will the city council raise up and listen to Ginger (they are paying him millions of our dollars)? If they listen to Ginger the Council has no other option than to demand Eden be fired or resign, along with other top command at APD. If they ignore Ginger, then why did they ask for him and the DOJ to come in the first place? The council must show courage and state they have no confidence in Eden and it is time for him to go. What will Berry do? Nothing. As always.

Can we throw one more log on the fire, Dan? What about those planning to seek the mayor's office next year? Maybe it's time we heard a peep out of them as the APD bunker stays as hard as cement? Former BernCo Commissioner Deanna Archuleta announced her candidacy back in May. She has raised some $40,000 since then but neither she nor the money are talking when it comes to this key litmus test issue. Brian Colon, Tim Keller and Dan Lewis are all but in the race. Any thoughts, guys?

THEY SAID IT 

Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith on the state deficit totaling hundreds of millions of dollars:

“By God, it’s like trying to turn the Titanic around!"

Yeah, and we know how that ended.

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