We hear you. Follow the money. . . which leads the Alligators to this statement by US Rep Steve Pearce who is also a freshly minted candidate for the 2018 GOP gubernatorial nomination:

Steve grew up south of Hobbs as one of six kids. His parents did everything possible to provide for him and his siblings while earning a $2.62 hourly wage.

And the Gator push back:

It looks like his father and mother struggled but in reality in1947 (when Pearce was born) that wage of $2.62 in 1947 would be equal to $29.65 in 2017. This is a good wage for the period that works out to about $4,700 a month based on a 40 hour work week. 

Hey, when you're worth millions as Steve is today, that probably looks like chump change. Nice try, Steve, but you're the victim of an Alligator strike, no doubt the first of many to come for both sides in the months ahead. Congrats, or something. . .

Martin Heinrich reports $3.1 million in cash on hand in his latest finance filing. New Mexico is not a targeted seat for the national R's. The waiting game on this one still centers on Lt. Gov. John Sanchez who has been flirting with a run against the freshman senator. . .

We can already declare one winner in the '18 campaign--the TV stations. They're finally going to get some contested races that will draw major league advertising. The open races for Governor and the congressional seats in ABQ and the south will bolster their bottom lines--although all three major network stations in the city are owned by out of state companies. The payday will be good but not as stupendous as it was in 2008 when NM was a swing presidential state, had an open race for US Senate as well as the ABQ and southern congressional seats.

FIRE FIGHTERS ENDORSE

One of our longtime blog sponsors checks in with this news:

Albuquerque Area Fire Fighters, Local 244 of the International Association endorsed Tim Keller for Mayor of Albuquerque. Diego Arencon, President of IAFF Local 244 said, "Tim understands that public safety is our priority, with his accountability and proven leadership he will ensure a safe future for the city of Albuquerque. He knows we must invest in fire and police staffing, operations and infrastructure to protect our community; taking direction from the voters to provide the necessary revenue to get the job done!”

This is the latest in a long line of union endorsements for Keller. The election is October 3.

POLICY WONK CORNER

Attention policy wonks. The 2017 Annual Social and Economic Indicators for New Mexico is out, courtesy of the economists at the state Dept. of Workforce Solutions. Here's just one sample from the swarm of data contained in the review:

New Mexico’s growth between 2010 and 2016 was solely driven by a natural increase in population from births. During the period, the natural increase of the population equaled 59,585 people (or 0.5 percent of the population), while net migration reached -37,780 people (an average annual rate of -0.3 percent of the population). This ranked the state twenty-first in the nation for rate of natural increase but forty-ninth in the nation for rate of net migration. Alaska and Illinois reported larger rates of net outmigration than New Mexico.

Good stuff for those inclined to delight in data.

POWELL AND DUNN

Democrat Ray Powell was defeated by Republican Aubrey Dunn for state land commissioner in 2014. Not the other way around as we had it in the first blog draft Wednesday. Thanks to the readers who pointed that out.

TO CONSOLIDATE OR NOT?

Reader Brian Borchers thoughtfully writes that the hue and cry for consolidation of New Mexico's over built higher education system heard here and elsewhere may not be the answer to the right sizing question:

Both Georgia and New Jersey have been attempting to save money by consolidating institutions. So far, they haven't achieved much in the way of savings. The reason for this is simply that the consolidations have only managed to save administrative salaries, which are a small part of the overall budget. Facilities costs are sunk costs (you can't easily sell off an unneeded campus and even with leased space you might be on the hook for years of rent) and the cost of instructors is basically proportional to the number of students. Consolidation of institutions didn't result in decreases in enrollment (which Georgia didn't want to happen anyway.) The Chronicle of Higher Ed recently reported on this, and the actual savings achieved by consolidation in George were about 1%. 

My take on the politics of higher education in New Mexico is that the legislature would rather keep cutting every institution's budget by the same amount then take steps to shut down the weaker institutions or even to force a consolidation of the smaller community colleges with UNM and NMSU. 

For New Mexico, Improving retention and ultimately graduation rates is probably a more important and approachable task than consolidating institutions and eliminating campuses. These rates are low at our community colleges and regional universities. They're also low at the three research institutions. This is an area where we should be doing better. Another issue is that NM ranks among the worst states in terms of community college students transferring to 4-year institutions and graduating with bachelors degrees. The ongoing effort to improve articulation between the 2- and 4-year institutions is an important effort that deserves more coverage. 

Now that's what you call food for thought. Have some of your own? Dish it up to our email and we'll serve it to the state.

JOE'S BACK

More than a few of you will recall former NM GOP state Senator Joe Carraro, the brash, forthright and entertaining lawmaker who represented ABQ's west side in the senate for some 20 years. He also made a run for the ABQ congressional seat, later became an independent and then retired from politics. But Carraro, now 72, and living again in his native New York City, hasn't retired from controversy. One of our Alligators visiting NYC recently spotted this item in the NY Post:

A retired NM state senator who came to the Big Apple to pursue a career as a playwright is suing his Manhattan building, saying his Hell's Kitchen apartment is too noisy.  Joseph Carraro's high-rise rental faces West 42nd Street and overlooks the Lincoln tunnel entrance.  

Carraro moved cross-country in June to write the next great Broadway play but the noise  outside his apartment has caused his blood pressure to soar, his suit alleges. He also cites construction noise inside the building, according to the suit in Manhattan Supreme Court. He's suing build manager George Laitsas and accuses the leasing company of a bait-and-switch by putting him in the 42nd Street side of the building instead of the 43rd Street side that had allegedly been agreed upon. Neither Carraro nor Laitsas returned calls

We wonder if New Mexico will get a mention in Joe's "great Broadway play?" Whatever it's about it will be hard to top the shenanigans that go on in real life in the Santa Fe Roundhouse and where Carraro earned his chapter in the never ending book of La Politica.

Dunn

The politicos are seriously cutting into our summer hammock time but duty calls so once again we're off to the early but crowded campaign trail. . .

State Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn, Jr. is the latest to set off a domino effect. He will leave the Land Office rather than seek re-election next year and instead seek the GOP nomination for the southern congressional district that Rep. Steve Pearce is leaving to make a run for Governor. Here's what that means:

--Former GOP Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, now on the Public Regulation Commission but term limited, is the most likely major name to seek the GOP nomination for the Land Office, according to GOP Alligators.

--The Dunn decision can be seen as a boost for former Dem Land Commissioner Ray Powell, Jr. who is in a testy Democratic primary battle with political newcomer Garrett VeneKlasen. Dunn beat Powell four years ago and Dems have been nervous about again making Powell their nominee. The Dunn jump will ease that concern but with an aggressive challenge from VeneKlasen, who is getting support from Sen. Heinrich, Powell is not out of the woods.

--Lyons would be an easier candidate for the Dems to beat than Dunn who had the power of an incumbent. The race goes from toss-up to "lean Dem."

--Dunn is now the clear frontrunner for the GOP nod for the southern district. Not that Alamogordo state Rep. Yvette Harrell, who got in the race last week, is a lightweight. She is well respected in her conservative area but Dunn has the district wide name ID and a better ability to raise the funds needed for the race. But Dunn did run and lose a previous bid for the GOP nomination so the race will remain on the watch list.

--If Dunn is the eventual nominee, it will be a difficult ride for the Dems. Dunn a native of Alamogordo, has proven his statewide electability by already beating a Democrat. And his cowboy image fits well with the district. And he doesn't shy away from negative campaigns. He was already on the attack against Powell as he announced his candidacy

“As New Mexico’s Land Commissioner, I have ‘drained the swamp’ that Ray Powell and his Santa Fe cronies left behind at the Land Office,” Dunn said. “By setting the right tone at the top, I’ve worked hand-in-hand with exemplary staff to enhance customer service, direct more money to education and the Land Grant Permanent Fund, and bring a common-sense approach to the conservation of our public lands.”

--There are vulnerabilities for a Dunn candidacy and reader Greg Lennes was quick to focus on a couple of them:

Dunn says he supports private landowners’ rights and is an anti-Federal government advocate. However, Mr. Dunn should applaud the federal government for his own farm subsidies over the years - $542,478.  Now he questions our Organ Mountains Desert Peaks National Monument near Las Cruces. He is the ultimate political hypocrite. When Pearce says "jump" to him, Mr. Dunn is hopping in a frenzy. Their goal is strictly to carve up our National Monument for the benefit of a few political contributors.

SHOULD PEARCE RESIGN?

There is more than idle chatter about Rep. Steve Pearce making life easier for his party by resigning his congressional seat and devoting his full-time energies to his Guv run. Why?

Well, first, if Pearce were to resign, the Governor would need to call a special election within 90 days to fill out the unexpired portion of Pearce's term which runs until the end of '18. Such a hastily called election is seen benefiting the Republicans who already have an edge in the district.

If Pearce were to resign--and no one is saying he is about to--the central committees of the state Dem and GOP would name nominees who would face-off in the special.

The Dems don't have an obvious front runner, plus the truncated campaign would give them little time to make the case the district needs a big change.

A Pearce resignation would also give the new GOP congressman for the district--assuming that is the outcome--a leg up in the important seniority rankings, if, as expected, he or she were to seek re-election to a full term in 2020.

Pearce has taken fire from GOP loyalists over the Guv run who say as the only R and conservative in the state's congressional delegation he should stay put and not risk an all blue NM congressional delegation.

UNDER THE SKIN

Sometimes we get under the skin of the politicos (who would have thunk?). Our recent blogging of Dem Guv candidate Pete DeBennedettis is a case in point, and we give him equal time to make it:

Hi Joe, You recently wrote: 

"As for anti-alcohol Guv candidate Peter DeBenedettis, who is not expected to raise significant money, Peter, you may need a stiff belt of bourbon before this one is over."

I get that you don’t take my candidacy seriously, but do you have to make stuff up about me — calling me “Anti-Alcohol?” Since when is working to keep kids from drinking being anti-alcohol?. . . And exactly how is standing up for NM tax-payers who shell out $400 each per year to pay for the costs our state bears because alcohol taxes are so low being anti-alcohol? I think the 50% of New Mexicans who don’t drink call it being fiscally prudent.

You’re missing a couple of things staring most New Mexican’s in the face when you give my candidacy short-shift. I’m the only bonafide progressive in the race. Do you honestly think the 48.5% of the Democratic primary voters who supported Bernie are going to jump behind the other moderate to conservative choices in the race?

And about not raising big money. Every poll for the past 10 years . . .report that money’s influence in politics is a big problem. Over 70% of voters in both parties think politicians are more interested in paying off their donors and taking care of themselves than about really helping everyday people. The fact that the other candidates have raised so much is my biggest advantage. Old school politicians and analysts who can’t see the handwriting on the wall are going to be in for a big surprise when the primary results don’t match their poll numbers and pundit proclamations.

Gees, Peter, we haven't had our ears boxed like that since we were caught smoking in high school. But you're going to have spread your love around because we are far from the only one reporting in the Governor's race who is calling you the "anti-alcohol" candidate. Why, just Sunday, Dan McKay, writing in the ABQ Journal, used the exact same phrase  to describe you:

and Peter DeBenedittis, an anti-alcohol activist from Santa Fe. . . 

Cover your ears, Dan, Peter is on his way over. (Well, at least he's not hitting us with an empty bottle of Smirnoff.)

And, Peter, are you really helping your cause by now advocating legalization of marijuna in the state? What about keeping kids from smoking pot, not just boozing their brains?

THE BOTTOM LINES

The annual jobs fair held by Dem ABQ South Valley state Senator Michael Padilla has become a draw in job needy ABQ. The latest edition is today:

"This year's job fair will feature 93 employers with over 2,100 jobs available" said Padilla. Last year's job fair drew over 4,000 job seekers. All registered employers are hiring right now. Click here for the current list of registered employers. The job fair is today--Wednesday, July 19, from 10:00 AM to 2:00 PM, at Harrison Middle School, located at 3912 Isleta SW, located just behind the South Valley Library. 

On a political note, we broke the news here earlier this year that Padilla would seek the Dem nomination for Lt. Governor in '18. He now says he is ready and will make his bid official next week. . .

We said in a first blog draft that a $1000 donation that ABQ Dem congressional nominee received from Rep, Deborah Armstrong, a close ally of Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham,  a Dem candidate for Governor, night reveal Grisham's own leanings in that crowded congressional contest. But Dem Alligators remind us that it was Grisham who urged attorney Antoinette Sedillo Lopez to get in the race so the Armstrong donation isn't necessarily a tell on Grisham supporting Haaland.

Grisham has not endorsed anyone in the race as she did in the ABQ mayoral race when she threw her support behind Deanna Archuleta who later withdrew. With all that in the background it's probably best Michelle not poke her nose under any more political tents other than her own. It gets the Gators going. . .

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It's a hot summer on the campaign trail. Let's start with that growing hotter-by-the-day ABQ mayoral race. . .

Bad news for Dan Lewis. The GOP city councilor can't shake fellow R mayoral hopeful and BernCo Commissioner Wayne Johnson who surprised with a campaign report showing he raised $122,000 in the last three month reporting period and now has $187,000 in cash on hand. That pretty much ensures Johnson will have a TV buy and mail campaign for the final stretch leading to the October 3 election.

(All mayoral campaign finance reports here).

In his personal appearances Johnson has been running an aggressive attack campaign against Lewis. The latest insider polling still has Lewis holding on to second place. His chances to make a two person run-off--which will happen if no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote--still seem good. But Lewis will have to look behind him as he runs, keeping track of Johnson's position.

Lewis has $192,000 in the bank, only a few thousand more than Republican rival Johnson. But Lewis is thought to have a better shot at raising more. He paid longtime fund-raiser Terri Baird nearly $30,000 in the latest reporting period.

Then there's 81 year old businessman and Republican Ricardo Chaves. Can he catch fire? He has the kindling. Chavez has stoked his campaign kitty with another $200,000. That's on top of the initial $300,000 he anted up. He reports $374,000 in cash on hand, second only to Brian Colon.

Chaves is the first mayor wannabe to do a mass mailing. It hit last week and we have it posted here today.

MACHINE ABSENT

There are no signs yet that the Governor's political machine is in on the Johnson effort, according to the finance reports filed last week with the city. He has been using veteran GOP fundraiser Ann Ekern to help him raise his cash. She has not been associated with Martinez machine leader Jay McCleskey.

BRIAN'S BANK

Brian Colón's reputation for being an able fund-raiser was enhanced when he again zipped past the field by raising $263,000 in the past three months. The other good news for Colón--who polling shows running a distant third behind Dem Tim Keller and Lewis--is that he has hardly spent any of that cash. He has $513, 000 cash on hand. If he can come with a message that resonates--something that has eluded him thus far--his supporters believe that money could help him quickly close the gap.

KELLER SPENDING

Keller opted for public financing and he hasn't been shy about spending it. He has already burned through $132,000 of the $342,000 the city deposited into his account. The state auditor has coughed up over $100,000 of that for consulting and campaign salaries. He is being consulted by Alan Packman's firm which has emerged in recent years as a near ubiquitous presence on Democratic campaigns.

Keller is going to need every penny that independent committee being formed on his behalf plans on raising. Right now it has a paltry $2,000 in its account. But that is expected to change. If for some reason the committee falls short or its media is ineffective, early frontrunner Keller could find himself threatened by Colón and Lewis because his own campaign account is headed lower.

ENTERTAINING ENTRIES

Chaves mailer (click to read)

Some entertaining entries from the finance reports. Former NM Democratic Party Chairman and attorney Sam Bregman donated $250 to none other than Republican Dan Lewis. Bregman is also a former ABQ city councilor. . .

Another lawyer and A former GOP state senator--Lisa Torraco--came with $1,000 for Republican Wayne Johnson. . .

Former GOP US Senator Jack Schmitt ponied up $2,000 for Johnson who is more conservative than Lewis. . . And who says the news media is a bunch of liberals? Former TV news anchor Carla Aragon raised the flag for Johnson with a $350 donation. . .

He may know something you and me don't because what money Brian Colón spent went largely for a $28,000 poll. Do tell, Brian. . . Lewis is paying the campaign manager he brought in from out of state--Stewart Bragg--$6,000 a month, according to the reports. . .

And here's one of the eyebrow raisers from the reports. Former Dem state Senator and now lobbyist Richard Romero gave $150 to Wayne Johnson. Romero has been scorned in some Democratic circles ever since 2009 when Romero, then-Dem Mayor Martin Chavez and R Richard Berry duked it out for the mayoral chair. Berry went on to win handily and many Dems hold Romero accountable for the loss, saying he split the Democratic vote. . .

MAYOR FORUM TONIGHT

There will be major mayoral action in ABQ tonight as all the candidates are expected at a League of Women Voters/ABQ Tea Party sponsored forum. It will be at the UNM Continuing Education Center from 7 to 8:30 p.m.

PAT'S PROBLEMS

Davis

An early shake-up in the seven way Dem race for the ABQ congressional seat. The most "progressive" candidate in the bunch came with a surprisingly weak money report.

ABQ City Councilor Pat Davis, who heads the advocacy group ProgressNowNM and who is thought to have access to national political support, only raised $68,000 in the most recent quarter. That was far surpassed by attorney Antoinette Sedillo Lopez who came with $201,000 and former Dem Party Chair Deb Haaland who raised $150,000 but says she only solicited funds for two of the three months,

The early knockdown of Davis raises the question of whether he can get off the canvass. His next report will be watched for signs of recovery and if the well-known progressive doesn't show progress, his foes will pounce.

For Sedillo Lopez the question going forward is whether she can keep up her fundraising pace. Her first quarter is dominated by contributions from fellow law professors and attorneys from here and across the nation. Former NM AG Patrica Madrid came with $1,000 as did Cynthia Hall, an attorney who serves on the state Public Regulation Commission. Lopez loaned herself $8,400 and her son donated $5,400.

THE NATIVE DIFFERENCE

Something a bit historic is happening in the early going in the Dem race for Congress. Large sums of money from Native America tribes and pueblos here and outside the state is starting to flow to Haaland, who would be the first Native American woman ever elected to the US House.

There have been questions about the tribes coming through for her, but that seems put to rest based on an examaination of her first finance report. Take a look:

NM's Santo Domingo Pueblo made one of the many $2,700 Indian Country primary contributions that flowed to Haaland, the maximum allowed by law. Matching that amount were the Washginton state tribes Muckleshoot Indian Tribe, Jamestown S'Klallam Tribe, the Grand Traverse Band of Ottowa And Chippewa Indians and the Swinomiosh Tribal Community. Back here, Isleta Pueblo gave her $2,700 as did the San Manuel Band of Mission Indians in Claifornia.

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New Mexico higher education leaders keep trying to patch up their leaky boat with never-ending tuition increases and pre-doomed marketing campaigns to attract more students. In short, they're doing a lot of stuff to try to arrest the secular decline in student enrollment brought about by recent demographic changes--not enough college aged kids, New Mexico's stagnant population growth and its lousy economy. They seem to be talking about everything but the obvious--that the state is overwhelmed with colleges, universities, branch colleges, etc. etc.

Education leaders, including university presidents, legislators and NM Higher Ed Secretary Barbara Damron will gather to discuss this "crisis" at a town hall meeting July 19 at 7 p.m. that will air on KANW-FM 89.1.

For decades New Mexico has been in the grip of a state Constitution that went overboard with pork barrel politics and established too many schools. We've been off to the races ever since adding dozens of institutions for a small state of 2 million and one whose once promising growth has been halted for the better part of a decade.

The question for education leaders and the next Governor is not how to keep patching the old boat but to build a new, slimmer and more efficient model for a state that shows no signs of the major economic turnaround needed to sustain the top heavy higher ed establishment.

However, the desperation to cling to the model of the past, which supports so many well-paid administrators, endures. NMSU Chancellor Garrey Carruthers continues to maintain that his school can and should attract thousands of students from Mexico to sustain the failed model. Why? To sustain a super sized education system--31 universities and brain colleges-- that demands right sizing?

If the talking heads at the townhall really want to get serious, they can start talking about this and urge the next Governor to lead the way. NM House Appropriations Committee chairwoman Patty is nibbling at the edges:

(Rep.) Lundstrom – like many others – questions the viability of a higher education network that includes so many points of access. She noted that Silver City-based Western New Mexico University has a presence in her Gallup district, approximately a half-mile from the University of New Mexico’s Gallup branch. She said there are many similar examples around the state. “It’s a lot of money (going to higher education). And we want to make sure it’s going to the best, most efficient system,” she said.

And what about the gubernatorial candidates? Will any of them step forward and question the wisdom of having seven, four year schools embedded in the state Constitution in this era? Will any propose a constitutional amendment for reform? Former GOP Governor Carruthers  analyzes that:

You want to get a governor right at the end of a term to do it,” he said. “… I will tell you it would take a lot of political courage to do a lot of work on that and perhaps it’s time we found somebody with the political courage to do it.

Only when you start hearing specific and multiple references to some of those 31 higher ed institutions whose time has passed will we know that New Mexico is getting serious about building that new boat and finally retiring the leaky craft that our leaders keep trying to plug.

DATELINE DENVER

Quite a number of responses to our essay on our recent trip to Denver and contrasting it with ABQ. Some readers, including Nicolas Cordova, thought we may have downplayed Denver crime. For example, this dispatch from the Denver Post:

Crime rates dropped or remained static in many of the nation’s 30 largest cities last year, but in Colorado the crime rate per 100,000 people spiked by 3.4 percent, fueled by a rise in auto thefts, rape, murder and robbery. Colorado’s crime-rate increase in 2016 was more than 11 times the 0.3 percent average increase reported in the 30 largest cities in the nation, according to the Brennan Center for Justice. Last year’s number of homicides — 189 — marked an 9.9 percent increase over the 172 in 2015, according to the Colorado Bureau of Investigation report “2016 Crime in Colorado.” Nearly one in three homicides were committed in Denver.

Not good, but not so bad that it seems to be interfering with Denver's growth path and prosperity, unlike here.

Former Duke City resident Scott Maddaux writes from Denver:

Hi Joe, I made the move to the Denver area about 4 years ago after getting laid off from my job in Albuquerque. It was bittersweet as I am a native Burqueno and I was one of the last of my circle of friends to stick around ABQ. For the longest time I was convinced I was never going to leave. I felt that I had to stay in my home state to help contribute in some way. I didn't want to be just another person who gave up on New Mexico. Alas, I became yet another victim of the stagnant economy and had to leave to find gainful employment. In the end, moving to Denver was one of the best decisions I ever made.  The economy is booming, there's tons of cultural, sporting, and outdoor activities, and it's overwhelmingly safe. I bought an alarm system for my home two years ago and my wife and I rarely remember to turn it on. You just don't have that low-key sense of menace here that you have in Albuquerque. You can relax a bit more. My parents still live in the Duke City and I'm trying to encourage them to move here. They are retirees, and at times I fear for their safety. My dad recently told me that he's taken to carrying a knife when walking the dogs. I just had to shake my head. What is happening to my city?

And Isabelle Zamora wrote:

Joe, a couple years ago in graduate school, I did a paper on Denver’s economy. What struck me was the emphasis they placed on the children beginning in preschool. I really believe many professionals move to or leave a state with their children’s future in mind. 

Isabelle sent this link to the Denver city budget which highlights the city's investment in early childhood programs.

THE BOTTOM LINES

We blogged this week that Dem Guv Candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham held her fire and did not attack GOP Congressman and freshly minted Guv candidate Steve Pearce on the day he announced his Guv bid, but this reader says while Michelle may not have beaten up on Pearce, that doesn't mean her fund-raising arm held back. This letter from hit soon after Pearce made it official:

Pearce will never stand up to Trump's dangerous agenda – because he agrees with it. He's voted with Trump 95% of the time so far, including voting for the deadly GOP health care bill that would rip insurance away from 23 million people. Between him and Michelle, the choice couldn't be clearer – and the stakes couldn't be higher . . .If we don't fight to support Michelle, Pearce could turn New Mexico into Trump Country. We need to get $10,000 in our rapid response fund by midnight. . .

Hey, there could be an idea there. We appeal to the President's ego by changing the name of New Mexico to "Trump Country" and sit back and watch the dollars flow. Imagine, a new Trump Tower" in Old Town! Yeah, now we're bloggin'. . .

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It's not a Utopia. Far from it. But a trip to Denver, just a six hour drive from ABQ,  brings you to one of the most thriving and  fastest growing metro areas in the nation. It also reveals reasons why that is and what keeps our city from matching some of that success.

--First, the most obvious reason. Denver does not have a crime epidemic. People you speak with feel safe in their homes and cars. That's what a booming economy does--it circulates money and jobs. For too many ABQ has become a fearsome place to reside.

--Denver has a metro population that is now over 3 million.  The ABQ metro has yet to breach the  one million mark and stands at around 900,000. That's a huge difference in potential.

--Denver and Colorado have billionaires. From fortunes in high tech to cable TV, they've minted five of them. And they are rooted in the state, giving immense sums to enhance the culture and arts which in turn attracts bright young people seeking an exciting lifestyle and good jobs. In NM, the richest person is said to be oilman Mack Chase with assets of $650 million (maybe less in the wake of the oil price debacle). Even though he is a non-billioanire, he still has very few peers keeping him company.

--Denver has an incredibly diverse economy, attracting professionals in the high tech, biotech, financial services and health care fields. Denver's culture is entrepreneurial while ABQ's is governmental. When federal spending began to collapse here, that was the end of the party. Denver was also hit by the Great Recession but it had such diversity it soon bounced back.

--Like ABQ, the Denver area is set against a magnificent natural setting and blessed with a relatively moderate climate. Without the widespread crime and poverty that afflicts ABQ, it has proved more attractive to the legions of Easterners and Midwesterners who have been gravitating West in recent decades.

DOWNSIDE OF DENVER

Their problems? They are not little. Homelessness has increased and experts generally agree the legalization of marijuana exacerbated the situation. The homeless more than dot the landscape as you walk the cultural district into downtown. They seem to be everywhere.

Homeless in Denver

Housing costs can be stiff, with some regular neighborhoods even selling homes for nearly $500 a square foot and the average price of a one bedroom apartment is near $1,400 a month. Housing prices have soared but appear to be finally leveling off. Still, it's expensive. Well-paying jobs make it possible but many Denverites are getting squeezed hard.

In the early 90's Colorado added budget restrictions to its Constitution and some believe they are cramping its style. Miller Hudson, a government relations pro we lunched with at one of the many trendy restaurants on downtown Denver's 16th Street Mall, is one skeptic.

He explains that the Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR) passed in the early 90's restricts increases in government spending to population growth and the rate of inflation While that has kept the reins on government, the state now ranks 49th in per capita spending on higher ed and 44th in road spending.

We need more and better roads to handle the wave of growth and keep the momentum going, but the restrictions are hurting us. Reform is getting serious discussion as we work to keep up with the growth, 

Hudson also pointed out that Denver's housing boom has been egged on by very low property tax rates:

A home that went for $400,000 in our neighborhood a decade ago was recently valued at $700,000. Still, the property tax is only $1,300 a year.

Well, homeowners will fight with their lives to keep that tax rate.

Adding momentum to the economy--along with some headaches--is the 2014 legalization of marijuana in Colorado.. It has brought droves of tourists to the city who spend millions. Then there's the $150 million a year in taxes legalized pot generates. That sounds like a lot but with a state budget of $27 billion a year, that's only a few drops in the bucket.

THE TAKEAWAY

Our visit made us a little bit more understanding of the Innovate ABQ concept that has been launched to spark more entrepreneurial activity, but it also reinforced our belief that Innovate ABQ is akin to putting the cart before the horse.

Too much of our workforce remains unprepared for the 21st century economy of cities like Denver. The social conditions crisis here--crime, poverty, lack of early childhood education and drugs--must be fully attacked and contained if we are to advance in a meaningful way. The recent threat of high tech company Lavu to leave ABQ and NM because of crime is undeniable evidence of that.

IF YOU GO 

The ART, a hotel, with a lot of whimsical art decorating the place, is right in the middle of the cultural district, next to the Denver Art Museum and across the street from the History Colorado museum. (Both are well done).

It's a short walk to catch the shuttle to the 16th Street Mall to downtown and its many attractions, or the hotel shuttle will take you. It's also a short walk to the state capitol where there are regular and informative tours.

There's a decent on-site restaurant at the ART, but a Denver breakfast institution--Dozens--is only a short walk away and filled with down home comfort. Downtown, the restaurant Rioja is touted as the best in the city and is worth a stop. Ditto for the top notch chain steakhouse Capital Grille. The Crimson Room is a cool Larimer Square jazz venue. We ran into Stu Macaskie playing there, who for years was a fixture on the ABQ music scene, but has found a better vibe in the Mile High City. He misses ABQ but said the opportunities here dried up.

If you are driving, on the way back you can treat yourself to a bite to eat at one of the finest resorts in the USA--the Broadmoor in Colorado Springs. A casual lunch at La Taverne and a stroll around the grounds will do you a world of good.

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Steve Pearce knows the odds are against him winning the governorship. So why did the southern NM Republican congressman roll the dice at the age of 69 and give up his US House seat in what could turn out to be a quixotic bid for the Governor's chair? (Video here). Long time political consultant Steve Cabiedes offered one school of thought:

Pearce knows this is going to be rough sledding in a Democratic state but he is taking one for the team. If he didn't run the R's would be in a desperate position. They have no bench to speak of.  The Pearce candidacy will at least get out the base GOP vote and help protect Republican state House seats. Also, he could win. It would be like a lightning strike but such things do occur, if rarely. 

And, remember, Pearce is friendly with President Trump and Vice-President Pence. Perhaps they would put some salve on Pearce's wounds in the form of a role in the administration if he goes on to lose? Otherwise, he and his wife Cynthia have millions in personal wealth they could enjoy spending. Looks like a pretty soft landing one way or the other.

The Pearce move certainly does allow some dominoes to fall into place. Like Lt. Governor John Sanchez perhaps soon announcing a bid for the US senate seat held by Dem Martin Heinrich. And GOP State Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn seriously eyeing the GOP nomination for Pearce's congressional seat, a seat Dunn once ran for. Dunn is the strongest contender of all the names floating, but in the hours following Pearce's announcement Monday, a top GOP operative described the positioning as "wide-open and wild and crazy. It will take time for it to settle."

"Wild and crazy?" Hey, we can live with that. 

Steve Pearce will be the Republican nominee for Governor. He is popular in the party, will be well-financed and has the conservative credentials the nominating wing of the GOP  demands. It is highly unlikely now that any other name brand candidate will run. Beyond that, however, Pearce's path to the governorship looks very cloudy.

(Pearce's video announcement for governor is here.)

His statewide loss to Tom Udall for the US Senate seat by a margin of 62 to 38 in 2008 illustrates the problem. He was crushed in the ABQ metro and the Hispanic north while competing in the less populated southern district. Unless he or the electorate changes in a dramatic way, he faces a possible repeat.

Pearce's long-held conservative views--all on the record--will be his chief obstacle. His determination to repeal Obamacare in a Medicaid dependent state is just one example of what will be a major attack point for the Democratic nominee. His support of Trump is also problematic, given that the president lost this state by 8 points. Pearce has some degree of separation from unpopular Republican Governor Susana Martinez, but the Democrats should have an easy time linking him to her, despite his protests.

In his last political hurrah Pearce, who turns 70 in August, seems to be betting that whoever the Democratic nominee is, they will be weak and prone to mistakes while a political pro such as himself can dodge the minefields to come.

Pearce, who served as an air force pilot and who recently flew a small plane around the world in honor of American veterans, will need perfect flying conditions to pull off the upset and extend eight years of Republican rule to twelve. Otherwise, this is going to look like a kamikaze mission.

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Damon Martinez

Will former US attorney Damon Martinez be lucky number 7? Martinez confirmed to me this week he will "soon" announce his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for the ABQ congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham who is seeking the Dem nod for Governor. Martinez will be the seventh candidate to announce, making for an increasingly competitive and unpredictable primary in June of '18.

Balderas & Grisham In Vegas

Better late than never? State Senator Joe Cervantes told the media he would announce his bid for the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nomination back in April, but it took him until today to pull the trigger. He will make his promised entry with a formal announcement at the Farm and Ranch Museum in his home county of Dona Ana.

Cervantes will be joining U.S Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, ABQ businessman Jeff Apodaca and anti-alcohol advocate Peter DeBenedittis as official contenders, but his problem is the same as it would have been even if he hopped into the race back in April.

Both Cervantes and Apodaca are centrist Democrats with business profiles who will appeal to the same Dem consistences, leaving much of the remainder of the vote heading toward Grisham. (DeBenedittis is not expected to compete on the same level as the other three).

That Cervantes and Apdoca are both Hispanic males is obvious, but important. Already, Grisham has had Attorney General Balderas join her on the campaign trail, only days after announcing his official endorsement of her. The pic of the duo is from an appearance in Las Vegas, near Hector's hometown of Wagon Mound.

While she's working with Balderas to shore up Hispanic northern support, Grisham is free to roam about the building when it comes to more liberal Dems who will be reluctant to go with Cervantes and Apodaca, even if they are still reticent about Grisham.

In the early gubernatorial going the math is simple. Grisham's vote is less divided than her rivals. Cervantes is going to have to break out of the mold he has cast for himself as a veteran legislator if he is to break open this battle for the Dem nod.

MORE THAN ENDORSING?

"That's more than an endorsement, Joe." So said the Alligator who sent in that pic of Grisham and Balderas. Well, if it's more than an endorsement, it's a deal. The details of any such pact between the possible next governor and the AG will be a sidebar that will keep the Gators guessing.

FINANCIAL BONDAGE

Whatever the name of the next governor, they will face even more brutal budget battles. While Moody's has decided not to give the state a second bond downgrade, the ratings agency says the state faces long-term "structural problems" that endanger its financial status.

We've been talking about that for years. In fact, we are not backing off from a concept--first expressed on this blog probably over a year ago--that in the years ahead--say, five to seven--we could see the state's $16 billion Land Grant Permanent Fund tapped to fund a larger share of the public schools budget. There would be a hue and cry about it, but such an amendment giving the state an extra half percent of the money the fund generates annually for a period of ten years would probably pass the electorate with flying colors.

Gov. Martinez's office, in a display of convuluted logic, says her no tax increase pledged that more or less carried the day at the latest special session over the budget crisis was the reason Moody's did not have to downgrade our bonds. That, of course, neglects the first downgrade under her watch and the specter of even more as her administration has failed to address the "structural problems" that Moody's says plague the state.

Conservative GOP State Senator Steven Neville of the Four Corners reacted to Moody's decision to hold our bond rating steady by saying:

The reality is, we have $25 billion in the bank and we’re not going to go bankrupt," referring to money in state permanent funds that make annual distributions to help fund state public schools and other programs.

Yes, the Senator is correct that all of the permanent funds total about $25 billion but that doesn't let us off the hook. If we refuse to generate sufficient revenue to fund the government and then refuse to tap any of that $25 billion to do so, you will get another bond downgrade and then some. 

That scenario is not upon us--not yet. But if the next Governor faces continued depressed energy prices, stagnant population growth, increased Medicaid spending and the brain drain of the millennials the day of really "raiding" the permanent funds may not be far off.

A WILLING MILLENNIAL

Trujillo

We mentioned the millennials. Here's one who just turned 26 and is not fleeing. Catherine Trujillo, a registered independent, is seeking the Westside city council seat being vacated by Republican Dan Lewis who is running for mayor. Trujillo, VP of the Taylor Ranch Neighborhood Association, isn't shy about saying what she believes needs to be done for the beleaguered city:

"Our city is ready for change and fresh faces.We have tough choices ahead. The crime rate, unemployment rate and the rate at which our city is headed should not be contingent on election season. It’s consistency that matters now."

Aside from crime, Trujillo promotes a stronger economy in Albuquerque by encouraging more employment opportunities, economic incentives to help grow Albuquerque businesses and train the workforce.

When you have the Chamber of Commerce giving Mayor Berry an award for public safety, you could say that we just don't need "fresh faces" but we are desperate for them.

Trujillo is in a crowded field which includes GOP attorney Robert Aragon, a fave of the Governor's. The election is October 3. If no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, the two top vote-getters advance to a Nov 7 run-off election.

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Mayor Berry

The news that Mayor Berry will be given an award by the ABQ Chamber of Commerce for advancing public safety set off the pre-Fourth of July fireworks, with most of those weighing in offering withering comments on the Chamber's decision and on Berry's dismal record in the public safety arena.

Coming as it did in the middle of an epic crime crisis, the outrage was fever-pitched but not without humor. One of our Alligators joked:

What's next? (Former APD Police) Chief Ray Schultz gets an ethics award from Taser?

Others commenting were not prone to humor, calling the award "disgusting" and "shameless," among the less profane adjectives.

The Chamber, led for decades by its president and CEO Terri Cole, has been scored repeatedly in recent years for not demanding more results on the crime front from the Berry administration, even as Cole and the chamber decry the damage being done to the city's economy by the wave of criminal activity.

In olden days the likes of GOP US Senator Pete Domenici would pay a visit to the 11th floor of City Hall and demand that Berry right the ship, but Pete's long gone. Add to that the shrinking economy. That has made the major contractors hungrier than ever for new government spending projects. They are all members in good standing of the Chamber,  NAIOP and the Economic Forum, business groups that have kowtowed to Berry even as crime and the economy have tanked his approval ratings and brought economic development here to a near halt.

Berry has rewarded them handsomely, with $300 million in construction contracts going out from the city this year alone. It's a final burst of pork barrel pending to cap his eight year run which ends December 1.

In that context the Chamber's bizarre award seemed more for Berry's substantial "public spending" rather than "public safety" as the Chamber again turns a blind eye to the crime crisis, one of the worst in the nation.

(And that the Chamber of Commerce constantly crows for more "free enterprise" but actually is heavily weighted with folks who make their livings off of the government is lost on only the very few).

Terri Cole

Writing for the ABQ Free Press, Dennis Domrzalski provided this provocative context for the mayoral award:

The chamber will give a public safety award to the worst mayor in the city's history, a mayor whose city is literally on fire when it comes to crime. That's why Albuquerque has always been, and will always be, an economic and social backwater, a place of self-and-rigidly-imposed mediocrity. . . Under Berry’s watch, the Albuquerque Police Department has been decimated, we’ve become one of the most dangerous cities in the nation, criminals are laughing and residents are fleeing to other states. 

For that, Cole and the chamber she has run for 35 years are giving Berry an award. Only in Albuquerque are public officials who are total incompetents and failures feted with dinners and awards. And that’s why Albuquerque has always been, and will always be, an economic and social backwater, a place of self-and-rigidly-imposed mediocrity. It’s no coincidence that Cole is giving a failed mayor an award. Cole and her organization, and pretty much every other business and political group, are part of a small clique of people who have run this town for decades. Their faces and names never change. . . 

THE RAGE GOES ON

Attorney and former APD officer Tom Grover, who often is hired to handle cases involving APD, was also roused to comment over the Chamber's award, an award that at first glance seemed like a political satire but is for real and will be given to him today at  5 p.m. at the ABQ Museum:

While the general contractors involved in ART, Paseo's overpass and other infrastructure projects may have benefited from Berry's tenure, the rest of us have not. Our city's budget is hemorrhaging millions of dollars because of the Dept. of Justice reforms ordered  over APD's mismanagement, our economy has tanked, our quality of life is suppressed because of crime and our primary protectors against crime--APD--has been decimated by its leaders. They remain uncommitted and motivated solely by personal enrichment and personal resentment. 

When has Chief Eden or his crew taken ownership of anything? It's always some other guy's fault. Well if anybody needed evidence of their delusion, one only needs to look at what this faux "award" and recognize what it means: failure. I loved being a police officer until it become unpalatable because of  leadership's corruption. In the years since I've left APD and fought to correct it's misdeeds by Chief Schultz and Eden, I'm amazed that it has gotten worse. This award does nothing but embolden continued bad behavior by the Mayor and his police chief. 

(By the way, a biting comment on the crime wave on the Wednesday blog that came from Veronica Garcia was not from the Veronica Garcia who is superintendent of the Santa Fe schools.)

ON THE TRAIL

Ricardo Chaves

Meantime, on the mayoral campaign trail, Dem Tim Keller has scored an important endorsement which raises the question of whether an independent political action committee will be formed to buttress the $380,000 in public financing he is receiving. The news:

The American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees Council 18 has endorsed Tim Keller for Mayor of Albuquerque, the union’s local chapter presidents announced today. AFSCME Council 18 represents about 2,000 City of Albuquerque employees and an additional 3,000 workers who live in the city.

Will unions be part of a PAC that weighs in with advertising and manpower for Keller? That's the talk.

This is just the latest of many union endorsements Keller has received and that positions him well for the October 3 election. Republican Dan Lewis put out a fundraising message this week saying "all the polls" show that he and Keller are most likely to face each other in a run off election on November 7th. If no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote Oct. 3, which is highly unlikely, the two top vote-getters will advance to the run-off.

Lewis is trying to shake off the challenge he is receiving from fellow R and BernCo Commissioner Wayne Johnson by dismissing Johnson's candidacy as a nuisance and arguing this is already a two man race. The new finance reports will be released July 15 and will reveal more about who stands where.

And in case you forgot, there is a third Republican in the eight person mayoral field. That would be 81 year old businessman Ricardo Chaves who is luring voters to a Sunday event by offering free barbecue:

Chaves, the only veteran running for ABQ Mayor, will be hosting a FREE BBQ in appreciation of ABQ's fellow veterans, service members, and their families this Sunday, July 2 from 1 pm-4pm at his campaign headquarters located at 1018 4th Street NW (4th/Mountain). This event is free, catered by Rudy's BBQ, and is open to all who appreciate our military men & women.

Free barbecue and free Fourth of July fireworks. Now that's making America great again.

AT THE MOVIES

Finally, reader Eric Lucero comes with some film reviews for the long holiday weekend ahead:

Dean (PG-13) Comedy/Drama *** Stars out of 5 This little picture showcases the ample talents of actor/writer Demetri Martin who through quirky impulse stars in the title role as the cartoonist son who can’t quite cope with his mother’s sudden death.

Dean returns to his boyhood home and immediately tangles with his equally distraught father played competently by veteran actor Kevin Kline. How we deal with and accept life’s travails is what defines us. Martin clearly understands this. Yes, this short runner is a diamond in the rough. The plot’s rocky road to resolution seems contrived and there’s the obligatory happy ending, but Martin, in his directorial debut, makes the journey worthwhile.

A Quiet Passion (PG-13) Historic Bio-Drama **** Stars out of 5 ‘Passion’ is a specialty picture that vividly illuminates the life and times of Emily Dickinson, one of America’s greatest poets. Director Terence Davies (The Deep Blue Sea, 2011) has a reputation for blending known histories with personal memories in order to create a plausible, flowing and compelling narrative. He succeeds quite nicely with ‘A Quiet Passion.' Davies reveals to us the highlights of Dickinson’s creative years which are populated with memorable characters. This bio is about Dickinson the feminist ad her creative duality both a submissive woman of her times but also as a ‘polite rebel.' At the end of her life in 1886, at age 55, Davies’s characterization leaves no doubt that Emily had already transcended the world of her time. She knew such famous poetic men of her age as Thoreau and Wadsworth and though she lacked their renown today she’s rightly remembered as a giant among giants.

Happy Fourth of July, New Mexico!

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017