Those Tuesday election results from Florida and Wisconsin that have Democrats grinning from ear to ear are reverberating in the November ABQ mayoral race.

Elections are about energy and if the concern over Trump continues into the fall among Dems--(and why would it not?)--nationalizing the election could be a path to victory. 

That was partly the case in 2017 when Tim Keller won his first term. Dem turnout spiked in protest of Trump who had taken office that January and Keller, running as a progressive, won handily.

Flash forward to 2025. Again Trump began a presidential term in January and an ABQ mayoral election is slated for the fall. 

Keller is already zeroing in on the Trump factor, holding a townhall and issuing news releases to detail possible funding threats to the city by the White House and his plans to limit the damage.

By far the major issue cited when voters are asked about the city is crime, but Trump's policies could be a strong motivator for progressives. 

While Keller is accused of playing politics over Trump--and he is--but unlike 2017 the President's policies this time are much more threatening to the city. Who can best handle that threat as Mayor is a legitimate issue. 

That is a challenge to the three prominent conservatives in the field--White, Sanchez and Armijo--who need the election to be about Keller and crime and not Trump.

If no other candidate backed by progressives is motivated to take on Keller and split the progressive vote with him--as the conservatives are doing with their vote--Trump will remain a serious policy hurdle for Keller but also a political gift. 

UBALLEZ AND THE LEFT

Reader Carrie Garcia comes with her analysis of the chatter over former Dem US Attorney Alex Uballez possibly becoming a progressive mayoral contender:

Joe, Alex Uballez is aligned with far left non-profit activist groups and those are the ones pushing him to run—think ACLU, Center for Civic Policy, OLE. For them, Tim Keller is not progressive enough. The leaders of these groups are well-paid ideological purists. They hold Democratic elected officials like Tim Keller to impossible standards and they end up losing, regularly (read: Paid Family Medical Leave this past legislative session). So it’s not about younger and older progressives being divided. Most voters, even Democratic voters, have never heard of Alex Uballez. This is about these well-funded, unaccountable progressive groups wanting a candidate under their control. 

AND ANOTHER 

Take two on Uballez:

 Joe, Don’t know that I agree with the Keller camp about Alex Uballez. I think he will run and he will try to capitalize on his recent TV coverage from the DWI scandal. But he is counting on voters believing he spearheaded the investigation when he is simply prosecuting the players who were investigated by the FBI. 

He will also open the door to scrutiny from his time at the DA’s office, where he prosecuted DWI’s. All the while, Tom Clear was bribing APD DWI officers without anyone noticing. He probably should have recused himself in the federal prosecution. 

As for being tough on crime, what happened to prosecuting gun crimes in Downtown Albuquerque. Uballez stood with Keller at a news conference promising to take a federal hammer to teens and guns in the heart of Albuquerque.

VOX POPULI

A Santa Fe reader comments on our coverage of the very early going in the race for the '26 Dem Guv nomination:  

Joe, Deb Haaland won’t be served well by going negative early. That's the job of the consultants and she should stay well away from it. If Sam Bregman sticks to “all Crime all the time “ and can avoid being smeared by his clients' dubious records ( not his he certainly can’t be faulted for his record in defending the worst of the worst) he will be Okay, But Ok doesn’t win. He will have to crack the liberal bastions in the cities where Haaland has high popularity.

Reader Mitchell Freedman asks:

Hi Joe, I saw your post where It talked about a poll among likely primary voters where State Treasurer Laura Montoya was included as a gubernatorial candidate. I have never heard of her running. Is there an exploratory committee for Laura? 

Treasurer Montoya is not running. Her name appeared to be included in that poll to test the strength of a lone Hispanic candidate running with Haaland and Bregman. The survey was conducted in early December by PPP. Who commissioned the poll has not been publicly disclosed.  

More on the race. . .

Hey Joe, this is Freddie Lopez. With Sam Bregman entering the gubernatorial race, the Democratic primary is going to be absolutely brutal with the contrast between progressives and moderates. Haaland seems on course to beat Bregman when it comes to fundraising with her early haul of over $2 million so Bregman will have a huge challenge. On messaging, Haaland will have to take a more centrist stance on the issues but her record says otherwise. Bregman can use that to his advantage if he can defend his own record. This is going to be very interesting to witness.

Thanks for tuning in. 

Reporting from ABQ, I'm Joe Monahan

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Councilor Sanchez

The ABQ mayoral field continues to grow as does uncertainty over how many candidates will make the November ballot.

One of them could be westside ABQ City Councilor Louie Sanchez who has announced an exploratory run but not yet an official candidacy. 

He has put up a website seeking $250 in "seed money" donations as a prelude to his effort to qualify for $756,000 in public financing that will require 3,780 individual $5 donations from city voters. To get them will require a decent campaign organization.

A candidate can make the ballot by gathering 3,000 signatures from registered voters but must get the individual donations to obtain public financing.

So far it appears Mayor Tim Keller, former Sandoval County Deputy Manager Mayling Armijo, former BernCo sheriff Darren White and the aforementioned Councilor Sanchez are positioned to get the ballot signatures. Candidates Eddie Varela and Patrick Sais are question marks.

Keller has previously qualified for public financing and is set to do so again. 

It is unclear at this early stage whether any of the other current contenders will make the grade for that big pile of public money. 

RUMOR MILL

Alex Uballez

Meanwhile the rumor mill is throwing out the name of former US Attorney Alex Uballez as a possible mayoral hopeful.

Dem political consultant Sisto Abeyta says the entry of Uballez could worry Keller as he would be the first progressive challenger to Keller who is seeking an unprecedented third consecutive term. 

As US Attorney for New Mexico under President Biden, Uballez spearheaded the investigation into the historic APD DWI bribery scandal that continues to roil the city with numerous guilty pleas from APD cops and others. The scandal will remain in the headlines through the duration of the mayoral campaign and would be a reminder of Uballez's accomplishments--should he run.

The push for him to run appears to come from younger progressives as older ones stick with Keller. The Keller camp says they don't see a Uballez candidacy happening.

As for Louie Sanchez he, like Armijo and White, will be angling for conservative/moderate voters and perhaps in the process dividing them up and leaving Keller in a sweeter spot. 

One other angle: the Keller crowd will be very interested in getting one of their own in the Sanchez District 1 west side seat. He is a Democrat but has opposed Keller at nearly every turn.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

The camp of Deb Haaland is sharpening their knives as Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman prepares his entry into the Dem gubernatorial race. A campaign spokesman issues this warning to their rival:

Sam has never been vetted. He's about to be. His work as a defense lawyer is damaging, especially now that he is adopting a lock them up mentality when it comes to crime. 

For good measure the spokesman dropped a cliche that will be heard often as Bregman crisscrosses the state sporting his now trademark black hat:

"He's all hat and no cattle," offered the Haaland spokesman.

Haaland, the former Secretary of Interior under President Biden, also shares a title with Bregman--former chair of the state Democratic party. 

The initial scoffing over Bregman's chances has waned. One of our Senior Alligators explains:

Bregman will have a clear and defining message--tough on crime--while Haaland has had a soft opening with no clear message. She says 'she is listening' to voter concerns. That contrast will give Bregman a boost with moderate Democrats who will form his base of his support while Deb dominates the progressive wing. She will be the favorite but Bregman's chances have improved.

In addition, there's the money. Haaland, a national political figure has, already raised over $2 million but Bregman collected $500,000 for his successful bid for DA last year. In addition, he made good money as a prominent defense attorney.

Add to that his multimillionaire baseball star son, Alex Bregman, who signed a three year contract with the Boston Red Sox for $120 million, and $2 million seems a much easier hill to climb. Of course, he will still have to show it in this race.

THE POLLING 

A poll conducted last December 4-5 by Dem leaning firm PPP and that is floating in political circles showed Haaland with 50 percent support among the 557 likely primary voters surveyed. Bregman received 18 percent, State Treasurer Laura Montoya 6 percent and undecided was at 27 percent. 

With over a year to go, the polling is of interest but far from definitive and obviously not inhibiting Bregman from entering the contest as Haaland supporters had hoped.

THE BACK AND FORTH

Deb Haaland

While Haaland's camp knocks Bregman, he will tread carefully in criticizing her but his supporters aren't holding back. One came with this:

There's a lack of energy in Haaland's candidacy. She's uncertain about her positioning, like a boxer swinging at air. Many Democrats appear to have passed peak progressiveness and are looking for something different--something that delivers.

The Haaland campaign counters that their candidate has been drawing large crowds, that her politics are well-known and popular among primary voters and take note of Bregman's long record of losing elections.

Bregman is expected to announce in Las Vegas April 10, according to his mailer. That decision is a blatant appeal to northern Hispanic Democrats (especially men) as well as rural Dems statewide. Many of them are culturally and politically moderate. That's why his black hat is staying put--at least for now. 

The cities--ABQ, Las Cruces and Santa Fe--are Haaland's stomping grounds. 

The disconnect of the early campaign is how crime dominates the news in those cities while Dem voters there appear to resist the "get tough" message. Meanwhile in the rural stretches, impacted less by crime, voters are much more receptive.

The primary isn't until June 2026 but the approaching summer of '25 will not be spared the political heat.

FIGHTING IRISHMAN DIES

Bill O'Neill

The career of veteran state lawmaker Bill O'Neill may be most remembered for how he showed a spine of steel and repeatedly defied the demand from GOP Gov. Susana Martinez that the legislature approve a bill stripping undocumented immigrants of their driver's licenses. 

This passage from our January 26, 2012 blog explains why we dubbed him "The Fighting Irishman.":

He is in a district he hangs on to by a thread, and when ABQ Dem State Rep. Bill O'Neill defied the Republican Governor by voting against her bill to repeal driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants, he felt her wrath and that of her operatives. They flooded his district with robocalls in hopes of softening him up for November. Now O'Neill, aka, "The Fighting Irishman," is looking for some armor for the next round of hits he will take on the emotional issue. His office reports: 

Representative Bill O’Neill, House District 15, introduced a bill today that represents the simplest and most effective solution to the volatile driver’s license issue. His bill calls for issuing a provisional driver’s license to foreign nationals who do not have a social security number.

O'Neill, went on to win that battle with a compromise finally crafted near the end of the Martinez years.

O'Neill, who grew up in Ohio, attended Cornell in New York and served as Executive Director of the NM Juvenile Parole Board, died of cancer Monday at a Santa Fe hospital.

He left his ABQ North Valley House seat to run for the state Senate in 2012 and escaped the wrath of the GOP machine. He won and served there through 2024 when he was defeated in the Democratic primary after Senate District 13 was drastically change under redistricting.  

Besides being a politician O'Neill was a noted novelist and playwright, authoring the well-received play Save the Bees that explored bipartisanship in an era of division.

ABQ Dem state Senator Moe Maestas of ABQ said O'Neill was one of the most "authentic" people he has ever served with. O'Neill was popular among his colleagues, chairing a nonpartisan karoke caucus that included lawmakers from both sides of the aisle who met up to relax and blew off steam. 

Senate Democrats said:

He championed many legislative reforms regarding juvenile justice, including prohibiting life sentences for juveniles, and probation and parole measures.  He helped establish Dismas House, a transitional living program in Albuquerque for men on probation or parole. His legacy will be remembered through the countless lives he touched and the policies he advocated through his dedicated service. . .

Bill O'Neill was 68. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

CNN Screenshot

Attorney General Raúl Torres is seen regularly before TV cameras promoting lawsuits against corporate interests but now he finds himself ensnared by those same interests. 

CNN explored Torres' acceptance of a lavish trip to South Africa (video here) along with other attorneys general, both Democrats and Republicans, and that led to this questioning of Torres:

Reporter: New Mexico's Attorney General Raul Torres is on his way into a public meeting.

Torres: We gotta run.

Reporter: We've reached out to your office. We haven't heard back. 

Torres: Sure, let me do this (meeting) and we can have a talk.

Reporter: (Torres) did not stick around like he promised to respond to our questions.

The NM AG's office is part of a multi-state case against Amazon and CNN points out the company had a representative invited to the South Africa trip from the corporate-funded Attorney General Alliance (AGA).

The South Africa trip is just one of the expensive international strips the group sponsors for their members who are also invited to bring a guest such as a spouse.

The exclusive trip to South Africa in 2023 that Torres took featured a safari, rooms at a five star hotel, wine tours and gourmet restaurants that served waygu steaks. 

AGA covered the cost including a flight allowance of up to $26,000. 

South Africa Safari

The guest list included more than a dozen attorneys general along with corporate lawyers and lobbyists from  companies like Amazon, Uber, Pfizer and Albertson's. Some of those companies have been sued by the attorneys general.

The AGA said:

Foreign delegations have a key role in strengthening bipartisan relationships. . . and educate all delegates on pressing civil and criminal issues. Asked about the safari the group said the visit included discussion on combating the illicit trade of endangered species."

Not all attorneys general take part. Arizona's Democratic AG Kris Mayes said:

It's intentional on my part to put my focus here in Arizona. I will leave it at that. 

In a statement to CNN Torres' office pointed to lawsuits filed against private companies and said AGA's programs "promote. . .equal enforcement of the law. "

Torres' role as a fighter for the regular guy could be called into question next year when he stands for re-election. But no Republican has won the AG's office since the 1980's and the Democratic attorneys general preceding Torres have also had questionable relationships with powerful corporate interests and the law firms that represent them. Still, the politically ambitious TorRes can't be please that he stepped in a mud puddle.

Mr. Attorney General, for dodging a reporter's questions about your luxurious South Africa junket paid for by the corporate elite while promoting consumer rights, you are hereby the victim of an Alligator Strike. Congrats. . . or something. 

 SANCHEZ SURFACES

Here's former Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez with former NMGOP Chairman Ryan Cangiolosi celebrating at Friday's Bernalillo County Republican Lincoln Day Dinner and renewing speculation that Sanchez may embark on a run for the '26 gubernatorial nomination. 

Sanchez, one of the state's more affable political personalities, is an an old political warhorse who knows that his surfacing will be seen as a near declaration of a candidacy. 

Sanchez, a moderate, is liked in the GOP. 

Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull is the only Republican publicly exploring a possible run. 

This could be Sanchez's time, if he dives in. Hispanic movement toward Trump in the north, Sanchez's high name ID and his personal fortune are all factors. 

GOP ON FIRE

A fire that damaged the entrance to state GOP headquarters in ABQ early Sunday morning has set off an arson investigation and heated reaction from Republicans. 

Besides flames at GOP headquarters there was graffiti drawn on a wall that said  "ICE=KKK." That sent GOP Chair Amy Barela over the top:

Let us not forget: it was the Democrat Party that once supported the formation of the KKK, pushed Jim Crow laws, and defended slavery. Today, we see the same dangerous tendencies play out in new forms — attempts to suppress free speech, silence dissent, and use fear to control the political narrative. 

She also tried--absurdly so--to implicate Dem US Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez in the incident after the congresswoman urged her constituents at a Santa Fe townhall Saturday to "agitate" for change.  

The GOP's scorching rhetoric may serve to do more damage than the fire. The first order of business in the wake of such incidents should be to turn down the temperature, not to add kerosene. 

There is no evidence that a Democrat set the fire. It could have been an anarchist or someone entangled in the immigration process. Or even a disgruntled Republican. No matter. It was wrong. That everyone can agree on and that's enough. But the polarization and the lure of the national TV cameras along with red-hot social media makes divisive sensationalism the order of the day across the political spectrum.

And in the style of the day, the NMGOP quickly started a fund-raising drive, citing the "cowardly act of arson" at their headquarters as an incentive to donate.

The GOP blaze comes after earlier this month Solomon Pena, a former GOP candidate for the state House, was found guilty of hiring people to shoot at the homes of elected ABQ Democrats in 2022 and 2023.

Have a nice day. 

This Is The Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Our wrap on the '25 state legislative session was bumped earlier this week because of our coverage of the mass shooting in Las Cruces. Here's that report.

It was finally a legislative session steeped more in the everyday realities of the state.

The behavioral health bill, the tax code revision that eliminated the state income tax for minimum wage workers and beefier oversight for the troubled CYFD all address deep-seated ailments. The outlier was crime legislation where only relatively minor bills passed.

The behavioral health revamp has been delayed ever since it was wrecked by false allegations of fraud from Gov. Martinez. The approved bill--after a too long delay--begins to put the state back in the game as drug and alcohol addiction, suicides, domestic abuse, homelessness and crime continue at high rates. The bill was a bipartisan recognition of the crisis.

At the start of the session House Speaker Martinez pledged a cut to state income taxes for those on the lower rungs, accurately reading the results of the November election and also seeing the unfairness of billions of dollars piling up with taxes still being needlessly collected on over 100,000 New Mexicans. The bill could have gone much further by broadening the cuts with little fear of the state running out of money. But the compromise does move the state toward more tax relief in a time of massive oil surpluses and the rising cost of living.

An outright elimination of the personal income tax for households and individuals making less than $45,000 a year would give better definition to the party's message as well as reconcile the state's immense reserve funds--now $62 billion and growing--with a declining or stagnant standard of living for a large swath of the state's workforce.

The Legislature could have taken the wrecking ball to the troubled Children, Youth and Families Department (CYFD) but the political will was not there. Instead they passed a long-sought Child Advocate bill that will provide more oversight of the agency scandalized by horrific child abuse cases and incompetence. The Advocate, placed in the AG's office, will only see the results of the department's mistakes. Avoiding them will take more work to change the CYFD culture. (The Governor was none too happy about the encroachment on the executive branch but did sign the bill.)

OTHER ACTION

On the political front, there was the surprising approval of the open primaries bill that will permit 330,000 independent voters to participate in primary elections conducted by the Democrats and Republicans. When it comes to voting, the more the merrier. This change could generate more interest in state governance. Shout out to former state Rep. Bob Perls who labored for years to get it across the finish line

A major reform of the state's Game and Fish Department (soon to be the the Department of Wildlife) made it to the Governor. Proponents said they could live with her veto of a provision dealing with appointment of Game and Fish commissioners because of the other major changes approved.  

NOTABLE DEFEAT

A notable defeat of the session was the paid family and medical leave bill that was a bridge too far for moderate lawmakers. Everyone thought the defeat of several moderate House Democrats at last year's election would finally pave the way for the measure. It as a small but needed win for the small business community. A satisfactory solution has been found in other states so it's back to the drawing board to find one that fits here. 

DEFICIENCY ADDRESSED

One deficiency that has been more than fully addressed in this and other recent sessions is early childhood funding. Now the onus is on state government to see that money effectively deployed and demonstrable progress achieved. You could say the same about the planned rejuvenation of behavioral health. 

CRIME BILLS AND CRUCES

For those rejecting the session as a failure because it did not produce major breakthroughs on crime bills, keep in mind that addressing the holes in behavioral health and early childhood needs is fighting crime. 

And it's not all about repeat offenders. It's also about interrupting the creation of new criminals. The abhorrent murder by automobile of an ABQ bicyclist allegedly by three youngsters--one only 11--and the mass shooting at a public park in Las Cruces Friday night that claimed the lives of three and wounded many more is a bleak reminder of that. 

The Governor said in the aftermath of the Las Cruces shootings the Legislature "should expect" another special legislative session focused on crime. The one she called last year ended in failure. She declared:

The reluctance to have even one productive debate on reducing juvenile crime is shameful,When New Mexicans are demanding action, and we're seeing tragedies like what happened in Las Cruces, policy makers must respond with urgency and resolve.” 

Legislative leaders Wirth and Martinez disagreed with MLG's call for yet another special session, with Wirth indicating that unless legislation was agreed to before such a session, it will again end in failure. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Garcia Richard

The spring winds are kicking up and the legislative session is over, reliable signs encouraging next year's political hopefuls to come out of hibernation. 

The latest to emerge is State Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard who announced for the '26 Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor and made no secret that she sees the office as a stepping stone to becoming Governor:

I do have designs on (being) governor some day, but right now it seems the best path forward for me, and the next logical step, would be as lieutenant governor.

Unfortunately for her, the office of lieutenant governor has been a hindrance to winning the top job.

In the 1990's under Gov. Bruce King, it was Lt. Gov. Casey Luna trying and failing to become Governor. He was followed by Republican Lt. Gov. Walter Bradely under Gov. Gary Johnson. He also failed to win his party's nomination for governor.

In this century Lt. Governor Diane Denish under Gov. Bill Richardson sought the Dem Guv nod and won  but lost that 2010 election to Republican Susana Martinez. 

Under Gov. Martinez, Lt. Gov, John Sanchez did not try to succeed her but in 2012 he did briefly run for an open US Senate seat only to lose.

Before Garcia Richard is inhibited by that history, she must first win the office that has proved so luckless to those with higher ambitions.

Her candidacy may have been better off if Sen. Martin Heinrich had decided to go for Governor. Garcia Richard would have balanced the ticket by gender and ethnicity.

That would also be the case if BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman, who is busy making plans to run for Governor, captures the Dem nomination. But the front-runner for the '26 nomination is former Sec. of Interior Deb Haaland who, like Garcia Richard, is a woman of color. Haaland and Garcia Richard would be two very woke progressives running together.

For now, Garcia Richard remains the sole candidate for the #2 spot. After two successful statewide elections for Land Commissioner, her chances of victory seem reasonable. 

OTHER NAMES

Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima says he is looking at running for Governor but he might want to take a look at lieutenant governor since he would provide a good balance for either Haaland or Bregman. (Mostly for Haaland since Miyagishima leans to the moderate side like Bregman.)

As for Howie Morales, the current Lt. Governor, he is not expected to seek the governorship but as we reported in February he is hoping to become the next president of Western New Mexico University. 

Maybe someday Howie could run for Governor from that position. History says his chances would be better making a bid from there than as lieutenant governor.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

A lot of feedback on our Monday blog exploring that mass shooting in Las Cruces Friday where three young men were killed and 15 other people suffered gunshot wounds. Here's a special edition of Reader Vox Populi. . .

John Ortega, mayor of the Village of Questa in northern New Mexico, writes of police understaffing issues that the Las Cruces police chief said played a part in that shooting spree:

Joe, My first priority after being elected in 2022 was to bring back the Questa Police Department, that my predecessor let go of. It took a year to hire a Chief and four officers, but we were able to do it. Even at only five officers in Questa, it has been a struggle to maintain that staffing level. I would venture to say that there a very few if any Law Enforcement agencies in the state that are not struggling with staffing. We are all always in a bidding war to see who can pay a higher wage to keep our certified officers and attract others as well. Questa is a small municipality, but a Chief and five officers is still not enough with the crime that is going on. We do not have the budget in our small municipality to hire additional officers. I would love to have additional officers and the means to pay them to stay long term and I believe all Mayors in the state feel the same way, it's just been extremely difficult. 

Michael Hays of Las Cruces writes: 

Joe, LCPD Chief Story is whining. Many police departments are understaffed. At the same time, they have data which shows “hot spots." The problem of understaffing is addressed by the prioritization in the allocation of resources. I am sure that the LCPD and Story know that Young Park is one “hot spot.” He should have had one or two police cars present at or cruising around Young Park and able to call in additional cars if needed. The LCPD needs a leader who understands how to manage the personnel and technical  resources available. 

State Senator and Judiciary Committee Chairman Joseph Cervantes of Las Cruces writes:  

Critics have misrepresented what I've said about crime. I've never said crime is an Albuquerque only issue. What I've actually said is Albuquerque crime requires Albuquerque solutions. And requires leadership there. I've met repeatedly with Las Cruces Chief Story and he now gets it after being used as a prop in the past. His candor should be praised and is a step in the right direction toward real progress. To his credit Chief Story attended the Governor's Town Hall, but then came to mine which followed. He now understands why the Legislature is not going to pass the unconstitutional laws touted by uninformed and short sighted critics. And he now understands the crime crisis is not the result of an absence of laws.  

I don't know of a single legislator from Albuquerque who has condemned the DWI corruption ring, which now extends beyond APD to BCSO and State Police. Probably the worst police corruption scandal since days of Al Capone ad Chicago.  

ABQ reader Ron Nelson writes: 

Joe, I’d like to see your research that backs up this statement that you made Monday

“ The people of New Mexico do not have "blatant disregard" for the rule of law and order. Over 99 percent of them obey the law each and every day.” 

Granted, there are many that don’t go out and commit serious crimes - but look at how many laws are broken by the drivers in this community, and get yourself a ring camera, and personally observe the petty larcenies that neighbors commit against each other

Larry Gioannini of Las Cruces writes:  

Joe, you did a good job of identifying the proximate causes of the tragic shooting and deaths in Las Cruces. But unmentioned was the root cause: Americans' uncritical acceptance of the universal availablility of firearms of all types, including military-style weapons, to the entire population. The context justifying the Second Amendment disappeared at least a hundred years ago. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Before the political bloodletting gets out of hand after the real blood spilled Friday night at a public park in Las Cruces that left 3 young people dead and numerous others wounded, let's focus on the most salient fact of the mass shooting being ignored by the Governor and most state lawmakers. 

Here it is as relayed by Las Cruces Chief of Police Chief Jeremy Story at a Saturday news conference:

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

The Roundhouse a comforting cocoon for the 112 lawmakers replete with fawning staffers, lobbyists and citizens kissing up to them as their favorite legislation hangs in the balance. 

But outside of that comfort zone fresh polling shows a political storm rages over governance of New Mexico as well as the nation, results that should shrink those oversized egos that grow with the nourishment provided within the Roundhouse bubble.

The latest polling reveals much more public skepticism of Santa Fe's political actors than years past. The Garrity Perception Survey, conducted during the current legislative session (Feb. 3-16) by state polling firm Research and Polling, shows only 19 percent of the public "trust" state government officials

From Tom Garrity, whose PR firm commissions the annual survey: 

The findings show that trust of state and federal government officials is at a record low and distrust is at an all-time high. Only 17 percent of New Mexico residents trust federal government officials and 19 percent trust state government officials. Trust in Federal government has been low since the inaugural 2011 survey, ranging from 14 percent in 2013 to 29 percent in 2020. The current sentiment about the federal government (17 percent trust) is likely driven by the fallout from the presidential leadership transition, DOGE and mass layoffs at federal agencies. The percentage of residents who distrust state government has risen from 35% in 2020 to 51% currently. The impacts of the legislative session may be a reason why residents feel this way.

The marked decline in trust in state government leaders since 2020 comes in the aftermath of the lengthy COVID shutdown, a continued rise in crime and homelessness, sensational child abuse cases, disappointment in the performance of public schools and a significant escalation in the the cost of living.

More recently the legislature and governor have taken hits over their inability to craft legislation to address violent and juvenile crime.

ANOTHER REASON

The low trust in both state and federal government officials is a sign of the times but for state government to be hitting such lows absent any major scandal and a Governor who is off her peak approval ratings but not dramatically, is a bit surprising.

There could be another reason for the crash in trust in Santa Fe. Garrity says:

Knowing that government is the largest employer in the state, it was surprising that 51 percent of residents feel that government is trying to do too many things.

Doing too many things and not doing enough of them right. 

Now those fawning staffers and lobbyists will need to double down on their stroking of lawmakers as they prepare them for a return to the real world after 60 days in the comfort zone.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

The Roundhouse Twirl (Moore, Journal)

About the 2025 legislative session set to close the books Saturday. . .

That bill legalizing medical psilocybin passed the Senate and late yesterday the House did the same. The hallucinogenic is touted as a breakthrough therapy for depression but we remember it from the 70's as a sister to LSD, taken mostly to evoke kaleidoscopic images while listening to Bob Dylan lyrics or something.

Besides being unnecessary when there are already many legal pharmaceuticals available to treat depression, look at the past mismanagement of the state's medical marijuana program and now the bureaucratic bungling of legalized pot. The bill's sponsors say, don't worry, only limited use of psilocybin will be allowed. Okay, but the bottom line and our decidedly minority opinion is this: the last thing this drug-riddled state needs is more mind-altering drugs.

The bill establishing a Child Advocate to oversee the troubled Children, Youth and Families Department has been mostly de-fanged by lawmakers but a milquetoast version has reached the Governor who has been adamantly opposed to the measure but did support a late amendment. Clearly, she should sign it after erroneously claiming the bill is aimed at her and not at fixing CYFD. Sign the bill, Guv. It's not personal--just business. 

Whatever happened to those sweeping bills that would give legislators full-time salaries and have the legislature meet year round? Nothing. Thankfully. (With apologies to Santa Fe legal mastermind Cliff Rees.)

Are they going to raise the royalty rate on oil pumped out of state lands from 20 to 25 percent to match the rate in Texas? Here's the broken record on that deal: Raising taxes on anything in this environment of economic challenges and immense surpluses should be a nonstarter--even for an industry as dreaded as oil is by the far left. 

Missed at this session: For the umpteenth year in a row no legislator got up on the floor of either chamber and gave a rousing speech about the state's poor national rankings in education performance, violent crime rates, drug addiction etc. Local Chambers of Commerce are popping the prosecco in celebration. (Can Senate Leader Wirth let us do that speech and we promise to leave right after?)

Not missed at this session: Abortion arguments. Finally, they're over. 

During the session there were no drunk driving arrests of legislators, no fights in bar parking lots and no senators introducing their out-of-wedlock child whose mother is a legislative staffer. In other words there was no scandal du jour in the 60 day session. Well, there's still a few days for someone to go off the rails. If not, we'll have to relive memories of Senator Pirtle.

FRED'S BENCH  

Here's a memorial that legendary New Mexican and former US Senator Fred Harris, who died last year at 94, would appreciate. His friend Al Stotts does the honors:

Friends of former U.S. Senator Fred Harris of Corrales have created a unique memorial to him at the Barelas Coffee House in Albuquerque's South Valley. It is a Spanish Colonial style banco crafted by Rik Gonzales, Edward Lujan, Juanito Jimenez and Ted Martinez. Lujan, Jimenez and Martinez studied Spanish Colonial arts at El Rito with Gonzales. 

The plate on the back of the bench reads: 

In memory of Fred Harris -- Senator, Professor and Friend of the people. 

The plaque with Fred's photo explains that Fred met regularly at the restaurant with friends who called themselves the Barelas Athletic Club. Barelas Coffee House owner Mike Gonzales took a political science course with Fred in 1978 and welcomed the idea of the memorial at his business. 

It really is time for a stop at Barelas. Once the wind dies down, we'll have to get Sen. Campos and Valley politico Dan Serrano to join us for lunch and a look at Fred's Bench (and not because they usually pick up the tab.)

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Job losses at Los Alamos Labs? Isn't that sacrosanct territory, especially for a Republican administration?

We and others have dismissed the possibility of widespread budget cuts under Trump for the state's nuclear outposts--Los Alamos and Sandia National Labs--and that probably will hold true. But the NYT now reports that National Nuclear Security Administration employees have been paid off after their positions were targeted in cuts recommended by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

At Los Alamos the number of employees leaving is modest but does signal that under DOGE  nothing is off limits. That will keep the Labs on their tippy toes as they look out for any further cuts. From the NYT:

The field office that oversees the NNSA's laboratory in Los Alamos, N.M., where plutonium pits are made, lost nine staff members, according to the documents reviewed by The Times. Budgeted for 97 employees in the fiscal year ending last September, it is now operating with 76. Among those who left was the deputy facility operations manager, a top job. 

Terry C. Wallace Jr., who ran the laboratory in 2018, said that it carried out some of the agency’s most high-risk operations. The government is ultimately responsible both for ensuring the public’s safety and for authorizing work to proceed, he said.  He is “quite certain” that fewer government staff members “will have a negative impact on the operation,” he added. A spokeswoman for the Energy Department said in a statement, “N.N.S.A is committed to continuing its critical national security mission through the development, modernization and stewardship of America’s nuclear deterrent and nonproliferation and counterterrorism efforts.”

Employment levels have skyrocketed at Los Alamos in recent years as work continues on nuclear weapons modernization, so much so that the lab had to open up office space in nearby Santa Fe.

Senators Lujan and Heinrich are the state's DC watchdogs for the national labs' budgets. With this development, they have something to bark at.

VOTE FALLOUT

More on the vote that rocked the Roundhouse--the defeat in the Senate Finance Committee Saturday of the Paid Family and Medical Leave Act on an 8-3 vote. We blogged of the surprise yesterday. Today we get this from from a Senior Alligator at the capitol:

Joe HB 11 was dead from the start because local advocates became lobbyists for out of state special interest groups that go state by state passing the same template for the PFML. They wanted no changes and did not fight Senate Finance. 

House Speaker Javier Martinez had the bill cut in half, giving a victory to business by taking employee leave from 12 weeks to 6 weeks and providing free maternity leave of $9,000 per newborn.  That cash assistance was in lieu of a paycheck for either parent who had a job and who would have qualified for PFML. This would not have been overly expensive because it would not cover all 22,000 births per year. That is a different issue for a different session. The expense could have been covered by the huge growth in surplus revenue. This amended version of HB 11 passed the House on a vote of 38-31 and would have not gone into effect until 2028. Senate Finance Chair Muñoz was mistaken. This was not a bill “wanting it all" but a reasonable compromise. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Progressive Democrats spent major league dollars and countless campaign hours to defeat the conservative coalition in the state House in the June 2024 primary only to be ambushed by the resurrection of a coalition in the state senate Saturday. 

The surprise attack spelled the end of their cherished paid family and medical leave plan as it was firmly rejected by the Senate Finance Committee, led by unapologetic Chairman George Muñoz.

The stunning turn of events over (HB 11), which was defeated when the House was peppered with those now defeated conservative Democrats but approved by the Senate, finally sailed through the House this year. Then Saturday in Senate Finance sudden death struck on an 8 to 3 vote, leaving Roundhouse progressives grieving their loss, like this one:

Joe, we cut off the head of the snake in the House only to see it grow back in the Senate. The shock is like an earthquake in the middle of the night.

Indeed. Tremors were felt across La Politica:

Three Democrats who voted for the bill in past years voted against it Saturday: Sens. Pete Campos of Las Vegas, Benny Shendo of Jemez Pueblo and Roberto “Bobby” Gonzales of Ranchos de Taos.

Sen. Muñoz has long opposed the plan as have GOP committee members. With the new Dem votes they killed the bill and delivered a body blow to the dominant left wing of the Democratic party. 

The measure, always controversial, was complicated this time by progressive overreach. 

It included a new provision that would have the state give the family of every newborn a $9,000 cash payment estimated to cost nearly $200 million a year. The giveaway arose out of thin air like one of those Oklahoma tornadoes. 

While groundwork may have been laid for it in solid progressive states, it didn't sell in low-paying New Mexico where small businesses often struggle to make a profit. 

IRONY GALORE

There was irony galore as Dem Rep. Christine Chandler was the chief House sponsor. She hails from Los Alamos, not only the wealthiest county in the state but one of the richest in the the entire USA. The main employer is Los Alamos Labs with some of the highest salaries in the state and plenty of perks, including paid leave. 

TAX RESENTMENT

The small tax increase in the measure to finance up to six weeks of paid medical leave for employees (12 weeks for family leave) provided more ammo for the ambush squad.

Never mind that the increases were only a fraction of a percent. They were the equivalent of a kick in the you-know-what for employees and employers in the face of billions in oil surplus funds that Santa Fe is struggling to deploy effectively. 

It didn't help progressives that the '24 general election results revealed an emerging conservative streak among economically impacted voters, with Trump losing here by a respectable six percent.

Could it be that those handful of conservative House Dems taken out by the left at the '24 primary fell because of the red-hot abortion issue and not because of their economics? (Yes, it could.) 

UNCOMPROMISING PROGRESSIVES

Senator Muñoz

Senator Muñoz was confident enough to offer a compromise but the progressives would not deal. Appraising the battlefield in the aftermath, he declared: 

ABQ Mayor Tim Keller has officially announced his bid for an unprecedented third consecutive term, defending his leadership on crime and homelessness and asserting that the "turmoil from Washington" requires "an experienced fighter."

News release here. One minute video here. 

Keller said:

At City Hall, we are relentless problem solvers, tackling Albuquerque’s toughest challenges head-on every day. We hear your concerns about long-standing local issues, compounded by the turmoil from Washington, D.C. That’s why now, more than ever,  Albuquerque needs an experienced fighter who will protect its future—and that’s why I’m running for reelection.

The ongoing crime wave will be the central issue of the campaign leading up the November 4 election and Keller's campaign, while acknowledging the "challenges" the city still faces, contends that crime is on the wane:

When Mayor Keller took office, crime was rising across the board, and officers were leaving the force. Today, under his leadership, crime rates are declining, the police force is being rebuilt, and the department is nearly finished with DOJ-mandated reforms. Additionally, the Albuquerque Community Safety (ACS) Department has helped free up police resources, enabling faster emergency response. We remain committed to ensuring every street in our city is safe.

With that Keller set the city up for a spirited debate on whether crime is indeed coming down or remains as fierce as ever.  

On the other top public concern--homelessness--the campaign says:

When Mayor Keller took office, Albuquerque had no city permanent shelter beds for the unhoused. Last year, his administration delivered a breakthrough, opening the Gateway System, which shelters 1,000 people each night. Now, Mayor Keller is doubling down by expanding housing units to get even more people off the streets.

The Gateway is open but not near full capacity which sets up another contentious cross fire with his foes. They include former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and former Bernalillo County Economic Development Director Mayling Armijo with conservative radio talker Eddy Aragon saying he will run again but who has not yet made it official.

(Art by Peter St. Cyr)

Crime and homelessness will be the battlegrounds but Keller's leadership record in other areas is less controversial. His campaign calls that leadership "visionary.":

Seven years ago, there was no clear vision for Downtown, the Railyards, or expanding family-friendly activities. Today, that has changed. The CNM Railyards Media Academy is set to bring hundreds of students into the heart of our city every day. Downtown is experiencing a revival, with new restaurants, hotels, and vibrant developments. The Rail Trail will soon connect Albuquerque’s historic neighborhoods through a scenic pedestrian parkway that celebrates our city’s rich diversity. Meanwhile, Netflix continues to grow, employing thousands of local residents and solidifying Albuquerque’s place in the film industry.

The more those issues are discussed the better for Keller whose popularity has been submerged by a general decline in the quality of life in the city as crime and homelessness have become more commonplace.

His administration argues ABQ is part of a larger picture with those complex issues challenging not just ABQ but cities across the nation.

Keller's mention of the "turmoil" in DC plays into his hands as ABQ progressive Democrats may feel again compelled to go to the polls to protest the rule of Trump as they did during the President's first term during the mayoral election of 2017.

So far, Keller is the candidate in the race with the most appeal to the city's large progressive block and he listed notable progressives endorsing his candidacy in his announcement release.

Keller has opted for public financing. If he qualifies as he did in his first two runs, he will receive a hefty $756,000 in taxpayer money for the campaign. 

In addition, a PAC apart from that funding that will seek private donations to bolster his chances is expected to form as was the case in his first two runs. 

THE KELLER FILE

When first elected seven years ago Keller was the State Auditor and a former ABQ state senator about to turn 40. His boyish good looks, media charisma and political smarts enabled him to win in a landslide over City Councilor Dan Lewis.

Seeking re-election in 2021 and already dealing with the crime wave and homelessness, he still dominated, scoring a 56 percent win over his two opponents and avoiding a run-off election that would have been forced if he had not taken a majority of the vote.

Getting 50 percent this time and avoiding a run-off may be more complicated considering his weaker poll numbers and with perhaps more than three candidates qualifying for the ballot.

But there's no question Keller has dodged a bullet thus far by not drawing an opponent similar to the candidate he was in 2017, a relatively new face bursting with enthusiasm to take command of the city.

Keller, now 47, is a graduate of St Pius High and has an MBA from Harvard. His wife, Elizabeth Kisten Keller, holds a PhD and works in policy analysis at Los Alamos National Labs. They are raising two  young children. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.