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Monday, April 14, 2025

Lame Duck Guv Upends Lawmakers With A Stack Of Vetoes And A Tongue Lashing; Special Session On Crime Now Further In Doubt; Tax Cut Falls To her Pen, Plus: Bregman Rides Again; The Latest '26 Guv Race Analysis  

We're taking a blogging break and will return to this space next Tuesday but first. . .

 What a show. 

The Governor put one on starring her veto pen and Sam Bregman, the state's perennial political showman, donned his stage clothes to make official his bid for the Dem gubernatorial nomination. First, the MLG drama. . .

She's a lame duck Governor kicking hard and in the process has probably doomed chances for a special legislative session to again consider her previously rejected crime bills. 

That will sit fine with Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico who are not amused by the political antics over crime including MLG's bizarre deployment of National Guard troops in ABQ wearing polo shorts and stripped of any arms. 

The state is by now well aware that the bickering of the political class over more laws to fight crime is a deflection of their responsibility to address the macro reasons for crime and the ineffective management of current police resources.  Special session? Good riddance. 

A frustrated and angry Governor let it rip in her veto messages Friday, going scorched earth in criticizing the recent legislative session and legislators. In the process she did some major damage. 

(Details on the vetoes are on the SOS website.)

Foremost was her veto of a tax relief measure that would have lowered and even eliminated the burden of the state income tax on some 100,000 New Mexicans. 

It was a bill that fit the times. High inflation is deflating the state's working class and with billions in oil surplus there is plenty of money to finance the breaks.

Also in the vetoed bill (HB 14) and going down (again) was a very slight increase in the state liquor tax in a state with the nation's highest rate of of alcohol related deaths as well as a reduction in the gross receipts tax for doctors in a state plagued by a severe shortage

The Governor's reasoning for her veto was shakier than cafeteria jello. She maintained she actually supported those tax measures but because "the vast majority of the changes do not even take effect for two years" they could be improved upon in a future session. She said:

New Mexicans deserve thoughtful, forward-looking policy — not last-minute dealmaking that delays relief, ignores economic opportunity, and undermines fiscal responsibility.

That's a lot of gaslighting even for the the Fourth Floor

The tax bill was near and dear to the heart of House Speaker Javier Martinez who has been in prolonged talks with MLG about a possible special session on crime. Now there seems very little to talk about. 

The Speaker had been urged to go big by proposing an outright elimination of the income tax for lower income households. That is precisely what is happening in other low income states like Mississippi and Arkansas in the wake of Trump's election. The half-hearted measure approved did not put enough heat on MLG.

Reform of the Children, Youth and Families Department, stubbornly resisted by MLG since she took office, was stymied again with her veto of funding for a Child Advocate who would be placed in the AG' office. There is still some money for the post so it may survive but her failure to address the CYFD crisis will be an indelible part of her legacy and a bitter-tasting one. 

Meanwhile, after her fury was spent MLG flew off for a lengthy trade mission to Asia. Her final veto message to legislators was seen dangling from the rear of her departing plane:

"So long suckers!"

BREGMAN RIDES AGAIN

Bold and refreshing or cartoonish buffoonery? 

As usual the antics of Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman were greeted by a divided audience as he made official his entry into the '26 race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Las Vegas last week. 

A centerpiece of that entry was a nearly 3 minute video that included Bregman riding horseback and galloping through a lonely landscape while sporting his trademark black hat. 

The debut video had Bregman attacking Trump, Musk, MAGA extremists and not so subtly his primary opponent Deb Haaland as he weighed in against the "intolerance of the radical left that has divided our party."   

Bregman places himself in the political center--as California Governor Newsom has done--in an effort to reposition Dems in the wake of the Trump victory.  As we've reported Bregman will seek to nationalize the election by making it a debate on who is more electable--him or Haaland. 

The Haaland camp is rejoicing over their fundraising--$3 million and counting--but keeping a wary eye on Bregman. They had no official comment on his entry. The former Secretray of Interior remains heavily favored to win the nomination. But the operatives are sharpening their knives in case Bregman's cowboy act begins lassoing voters. From a Haaland activist:

Joe, Sam's announcement was a vanity statement and incredibly divisive. He attacked progressives for being intolerant, and attacked our Congressional Delegation outright. How is this someone who's going to bring people together at a time when that's what's needed most? Not to mention that he is completely misrepresenting his past. As a criminal defense attorney, he represented the worst of the worst in New Mexico - a child rapist, violent criminals, and corrupt politicians - and he has no record to point to as DA. It's an open secret that Sam has wanted to be Governor since the 90's, and clearly he's willing to say or do anything to try and make that happen, even if it means taking down those in his own party.

PAYNE ANALYSIS 

(Peter St. Cyr)
Former state legislator, ABQ city councilor and Santa Fe attorney Greg Payne is back this cycle to help blog readers navigate through the maze of yet another election.

Joe, Bregman is moving early to consolidate the rural conservative and moderate Democratic vote. His pitch will also have appeal to conservative independents who are now permitted to vote in primary elections, so he is targeting them as well. 

This strategy, if well-financed, could double his standing from that early poll that had Haaland leading him 50 to 18 but getting more will be akin to pulling teeth. Her standing with progressives who dominate the party is pretty much unassailable. Still, with populism in the air, Trump's narrower loss here and unpredictability being the order of the day, this race will be closely watched and not dismissed out of hand.

Thanks, Greg. In 2018 in the last open Dem Governor primary MLG scored 66 percent of the vote in a three way race.

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Thursday, April 10, 2025

New Rules For State Primary Elections Opens Voting Gates For Over 300,000 NM Independents; Founder Of Open Primaries Movement Weighs Potential Impact 

Bob Perls
It is a major change to state elections but it may not have a major impact on election outcomes. That appears to be the consensus among the political pros as they weigh the new rules for party primaries signed into law this week by MLG. That law states:

Some 330,000 unaffiliated voters in New Mexico will now be able to participate in primary elections without first having to change their voter registration to a major party. Senate Bill 16 is a measure that would create so-called semi-open primaries in the state.

To flesh out the history of this change and the surge it will mean in eligible voters for partisan elections, we spoke with former state Rep, Bob Perls of Corrales, the founder of the state movement for open primaries:

Joe, it’s been a 10 year effort and thousands of hours of volunteer time to pass an open primaries bill culminating in the passage of SB16. I want to thank the NM Open Elections Board members who kept the momentum alive and the state legislators who sponsored various versions of the legislation over the last decade. Then in 2022 NM Open Elections had some key local supporters write some sizable checks that allowed me and our Board to hire our first paid Executive Director, Sila Avcil, who took us to the next level. Nothing is more gratifying to realize that I helped enfranchise over 300,000 voters in NM to be able to exercise their fundamental human right to vote in a public election. 

It will be fun to watch in 2026 how the major parties reach out to independent voters and the party that does it best will reap the rewards. The bill takes effect in the 2026 election cycle. As a group, our position is that it does not benefit one party over another and nationally that seems to be the case. 

I would hope candidates that might not get the full-throated endorsement of the major parties might be encouraged to run realizing they can run a primary in either party targeting independent voters who are not going to care if the candidate espouses typical party orthodoxy.  

There is good data that independents are diverse, but tend to reflect the districts they come from. In other words they are not going to be a lot further left or right than their own neighborhoods.

As a whole, they don’t want to be told who to vote for and don’t want the binary choice of the parties which have tracked further left and right over the years. They want to hear about the issues and concrete solutions. Which party will do that for them? It could lead to more moderate candidates getting elected, but there is no clear evidence of that. 

The biggest change will simply be having 330,000 new potential voters--23 percent of all registered voters-eligible to vote in state primaries. Given that 50% of veterans and young people are registered as independent voters nationally and 30% + of Native American communities, there is a chance those groups could have an impact on primary elections. The main thing is that their constitutional right to vote is finally protected. 

Thanks, Bob. Just how many of the independents will decide to vote in the primaries is uncertain. Turnout for independents is usually lower than for voters in the major parties. We'll start to get some answers next year beginning with the June primary where candidates will compete for an open gubernatorial seat and many other offices. 

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Wednesday, April 09, 2025

MLG Calls Out The National Guard To Respond To ABQ Crime Wave Even As Mayor Contends Crime Is Down, Critics Pounce; Deployment Could Be Prelude To Special Legislative Session, Plus: Mayoral Candidates Clamor For Edge  

The National Guard to Albuquerque? 
 
When we heard the news Tuesday that MLG was deploying up to 70 National Guard troops to help fight crime in ABQ we flashed back to the summer of '71 when we first arrived in the city. We were greeted by a curfew and armed national guardsmen speeding  down city streets in the wake of the riots that had broken out that June. Our new hometown suddenly seemed dangerous and sitting on a knife's edge. 

This time the the Guard presence is controversial and accompanied by stinging criticism about the state of the state's largest city. 
 
The Guard will be deployed on a soft mission, aimed at freeing up more APD officers to patrol the streets. But that air of danger ABQ held in those troubled days over half century ago is back today, despite repeated efforts by the Governor, Mayor and APD Chief to reverse a crime wave unprecedented in both scope and staying power. 

In his letter to the Governor requesting the Guard presence, APD Chief Medina said:
  
(The Guard) will assist APD in multiple areas, including scene security and traffic control at critical incidents, medical assistance and humanitarian efforts along Central, Prisoner Transport Unit assistance, transit security enhancement, Metro Court security support, aviation/Sunport security assistance, Shield Unit case preparation support and APD Drone Program operational assistance. 
 
Although the Guard does respond to natural disasters, enlisting it in the crime fight without having the troops actually fighting crime tries to make it into something like the Red Cross or Salvation Army and not a highly-trained military force. The troops will not be wearing uniforms, but "polos" and not sporting arms, according to the Mayor. The Guv and Medina acknowledged the Guard will have to have special training before being sent to ABQ for their hands-off and out of the ordinary mission.
 
Just what have the Governor and Mayor stepped in here? It doesn't have a pleasant smell and we'll leave it at that.

(MLG news conference here. News release, executive order and Chief Medina letter here.)
 
The Governor said she declared an emergency and deployed the Guard in response to that request from Medina. 
 
We won't say she put a gun to his head but the action does appear aimed at bolstering her failed crime package and could be a prelude to her calling a special session on crime. But she says no decision on a special is coming down quickly as she continues to grapple with opposition from key Dem lawmakers. 

POLITICAL IMPACT
 
On the local level bringing the Guard in would seem to serve the cause of the opponents of Mayor Keller in the November election. They can portray it as a desperate act to control crime even as the Governor and Keller have failed to do so over the past six years. 
 
The problem is that the three major foes of Keller--former BernCo Sheriff Darren White, ABQ City Councilor Louie Sanchez and former Sandoval County Deputy Manager Mayling Armijo--are splitting the anti-Keller vote, leaving him free to roam about the building, or in this case riding in a National Guard jeep and throwing candy to pedestrians.
 
It was a Republican legislator, state Sen. Nicole Tobiassen, who was among the first to rip into Keller:
 
Albuquerque’s crime crisis is a testament to the absolute failure of Mayor Keller and his progressive policies. It’s sad that his own police chief had to go over his head and seek state resources in order to try and keep up with the rampant violent crime, drug trafficking, juvenile crime, and gang activity that plagues our city. Mayor Keller and the progressive Democrats' failed leadership have made our community into a literal war zone and we must change course before not even state resources can combat the chaos allowed in Albuquerque. This plea for help comes on the heels of a legislative session where Democrat lawmakers denied or killed every single substantive public safety proposal. Elections have consequences and city residents have seen enough. 
 
Sen. Tobiassen
Mayor Keller said at a news conference, (where he did not appear very jolly), that the Guard will add to the "momentum" the city has in fighting crime, displaying stats that have ABQ crime down in "almost" all major categories and declining for the first three months of the year. (News conference video here.)
 
But do people really feel that or believe it as the Governor contradicts him? In fact. . .
 
Recent outlandish crimes in the metro continue to play into MLG's hands but when haven't they? And when have they resulted in legislative action on her crime bills? They just haven't.

She faces a public increasingly numbed by crime and homelessness which are becoming generational problems here. There are no simple or quick solutions.
 
The fact that the Guard is being called in only reinforces the legislative viewpoint that APD and Mayor Keller are not getting the job done and more laws are not going to help.
 
The Governor gets credit for still caring and for fighting her deepening descent into lame-duck irrelevance. But she's already sent the state police here to battle crime, declared a gun emergency that was overturned in court and seen her crime package wither in this year's legislative session and a special session before that. 
 
We'd like to have some constructive suggestions for her but we're as perplexed as anyone. We do know we'll feel better when the Guard leaves the city just as we were back in 1971--even though this time the danger will remain.

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Tuesday, April 08, 2025

Senate Watch: Ben Ray Expected To Go For A Second Term Next Year But If He Didn't A Likely Successor Is In The Wings 

Sen. Lujan
It's assumed that Dem Senator Ben Ray Lujan will stand for re-election next year but he has not officially announced. At the end of last year his campaign account held $1.213 million, an ample amount at this stage of the cycle. 

He spent a total of $7.5 million in winning the seat over Republican Mark Ronchetti in 2020 who spent just $3.5 million. But Lujan only won that race by 6.1 percent, a performance that brought criticism of how the campaign was managed. 

While Lujan, 52, has not yet officially announced his plans, Republicans are not beating down the door to get into the race. None has announced and there are no prominent names circulating.

The fact that the last Republican elected to the Senate here was Sen. Pete Domenici when he was re-elected in 2002 is not helping to lure ambitious Republicans into the contest. 

So what would happen in the unlikely event of Lujan deciding not to run for another term? Certainly Republicans would emerge but the Democrats would have no problem getting a top tier candidate. 

The most obvious would be ABQ Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury although her left-leaning politics might be a hurdle. However, consultants say votes from ABQ, Santa Fe and Las Cruces would be more than enough for her to keep the seat in the D column. 

Another possible is Attorney General Raul Torres but generally the edge goes to those already in the House. Think Lujan and Heinrich who moved from the House to Senate seats. 

IN THE WINGS

Rep. Stansbury
Stansbury, 46, took heat when she held up a sign at Trump's February speech to Congress that said: "This Is Not Normal." Critics called it for not being serious and a PR stunt.

But Stansbury is actually quite serious about what is happening in DC as she takes to heart a major role in oversight of the administration:

Rep Stansbury, Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Delivering on Government Efficiency, led Committee Democrats in introducing a Resolution of Inquiry to investigate DOGE’s unsanctioned use of government data and artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on American privacy and national security. “The American people demand to know why Elon Musk and DOGE are hacking our private and sensitive data and what they are doing with it. This includes Social Security, IRS, Treasury, and other highly sensitive data, I have dropped an oversight resolution demanding the Administration provide answers about what it is doing with our data and how it is using Artificial Intelligence to data mine our systems. It is our duty to fight for answers and get to the bottom of what exactly DOGE and Musk are doing. . ."

Not that she will get much of an answer from the administration but her determination to take a lead role in the nitty gritty of urgently needed oversight, not only protesting with a sign, puts her in the league of possible future US Senators. (Not that Ben Ray is going anywhere. Not that we know of.)

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Monday, April 07, 2025

Dem Guv Primary Gets More Serious; Veteran Political Consultant For Big Bill And MLG Signs With Underdog Bregman, Plus: Haaland Is Endorsed By Noted Civil Rights Leader 

Contarino
The '26 race for the Democratic nomination for governor is getting more serious. 

The veteran Democratic consultant who helped bring home two gubernatorial wins each for Governors Bill Richardson and Lujan Grisham has picked sides for next year's contest and he's going with Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman.

That word from a reliable source close to Bregman's campaign who said the addition of Dave Contarino as the chief strategist "will help level the playing field" with front-runner Deb Haaland who announced her candidacy in February.  

He added:

Contarino will work to nationalize this race and make it about who can win the general election.

Bregman is expected to announce his candidacy Thursday afternoon at an event in Las Vegas.  

Contarino is nearly legendary in state political circles, although years ago he moved to Louisville from where he practices his trade today.

He became widely known when he brought home a win for Bill Richardson in 2002 and then presided over his 2006 re-election bid to score another victory.

In addition, Contarino, 63, served as Richardson's chief of staff during his first term.

For MLG, Contarino helped engineer a hard-fought 2012 Democratic primary win for the ABQ congressional seat and then aided her 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial campaigns.

In between he has teamed with longtime Dem consultant Amanda Cooper to run a PAC financed by labor that has delivered consistent wins in state legislative races. 

In Kentucky, in 2023, he headed a PAC for the re-election bid of Gov. Andy Beshear who won a second term.

OLD TIES 

Gov. Richardson
Bregman was good friends with Big Bill who died in 2023. They shared a passion for sports and politics. 

In 2009 when Richardson's foes were dragging Contarino into the scandals surrounding the administration, attorney Bregman was at his side. 

Contarino brings deep experience to the Bregman bench including in advertising, polling, organization and overall strategy. 

His hiring is also a sign that Bregman anticipates having sufficient funds to be competitive with Haaland who has already raised $2 million. 

MLG has not endorsed any candidate. She appointed Bregman in 2023 as BernCo DA to fill a vacancy. He then went on to win election to the post last November.

She also apppointed him as chairman of her Organized Crime Commission and worked with him on crime bills that failed to get approved at the '25 legislature. 

The Governor also has close ties to Haaland and one of her top aides--Caroline Buerkle--has endorsed the former Sec. of Interior. 

Haaland's camp has signed longtime Dem consultant, Scott Forrester, as well as Dominic Gabello who was campaign manager for Lujan Grisham.

All these Dem consultants are friends so it will be interesting to watch as they try to out fox each other in what is fast becoming an entertaining primary. The stakes are high. The winner will be favored in the general election.

HUERTA FOR HAALAND

Haaland & Huerta
Haaland marched Saturday in ABQ with longtime civil rights leader Dolores Huerta, 95, at the Annual César Chávez Celebration during which Huerta endorsed Haaland, saying:

Deb Haaland is a true public servant who always places the needs of working people first. She stands strong in the face of adversity and continues to be on the front lines fighting for justice. New Mexico needs a proven leader with the courage to fight for all New Mexicans. Times are tough but we will continue to thrive alongside leaders like Deb Haaland whose work lets us remain hopeful and dedicated to creating a more fair and just New Mexico. 

Haaland and Huerta were also at Saturday's ABQ Hands Off rally held to protest Trump's policies. The event drew several thousand to Civic Plaza

MAYOR'S RACE

Reader Carrie Garcia's comments on the ABQ mayoral race Thursday drew responses from two of the city's progressive leaders. This from Oriana Sandoval of the Center for Civic Policy

Joe: Your reader “Carrie Garcia” mentioned the Center for Civic Policy (CCP) in your April 3 post. CCP is a 501(c)(3) organization that does not engage in political activity, including electioneering and candidate recruitment. The claim that CCP is engaged in recruiting mayoral candidates. . .is blatantly false.  

And from Andrea Serrano of Olé:  

Hi Joe, It’s interesting your reader “Carrie Garcia” wrote so confidently about OLÉ - and missed the mark completely. OLÉ is a member-based 501(c)4 organization and while it is true that we endorse candidates who: A. complete our questionnaire and B. are aligned with our values, we have not endorsed in the 2025 Mayoral race and will do so later this spring. Focusing on issues that affect workers and families, we support candidates who deliver for New Mexicans and not corporations. I invite “Carrie” to email us at info@olenm.org if she has any further questions about our process and our organization.

Meanwhile, this news lurks over the campaign:

The city of Albuquerque’s independent watchdog agency has issued an unusual public notice aimed at its citizen oversight committee, which has yet to make public nine finished internal investigations into alleged misconduct at City Hall. In an “Update to Citizens of Albuquerque” released Monday, city Inspector General Melissa R. Santistevan wrote that the pending reports “deal with fraud, waste, or abuse that impact our City. Some of these reports have been completed for months without citizen awareness.” In a Journal interview, she wouldn’t disclose the topics.

Also, conservative radio talk host Eddy Aragon, who announced a mayoral candidacy earlier this year, tells us he will not be running because the field is "too crowded."

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Thursday, April 03, 2025

Florida And Wisconsin Results Reverberate in 505; ABQ Mayoral Race Eyed For Trump Impact, Plus: Reader Vox Populi Tackles Dem Guv Race  

Those Tuesday election results from Florida and Wisconsin that have Democrats grinning from ear to ear are reverberating in the November ABQ mayoral race.

Elections are about energy and if the concern over Trump continues into the fall among Dems--(and why would it not?)--nationalizing the election could be a path to victory. 

That was partly the case in 2017 when Tim Keller won his first term. Dem turnout spiked in protest of Trump who had taken office that January and Keller, running as a progressive, won handily.

Flash forward to 2025. Again Trump began a presidential term in January and an ABQ mayoral election is slated for the fall. 

Keller is already zeroing in on the Trump factor, holding a townhall and issuing news releases to detail possible funding threats to the city by the White House and his plans to limit the damage.

By far the major issue cited when voters are asked about the city is crime, but Trump's policies could be a strong motivator for progressives. 

While Keller is accused of playing politics over Trump--and he is--but unlike 2017 the President's policies this time are much more threatening to the city. Who can best handle that threat as Mayor is a legitimate issue. 

That is a challenge to the three prominent conservatives in the field--White, Sanchez and Armijo--who need the election to be about Keller and crime and not Trump.

If no other candidate backed by progressives is motivated to take on Keller and split the progressive vote with him--as the conservatives are doing with their vote--Trump will remain a serious policy hurdle for Keller but also a political gift. 

UBALLEZ AND THE LEFT

Reader Carrie Garcia comes with her analysis of the chatter over former Dem US Attorney Alex Uballez possibly becoming a progressive mayoral contender:

Joe, Alex Uballez is aligned with far left non-profit activist groups and those are the ones pushing him to run—think ACLU, Center for Civic Policy, OLE. For them, Tim Keller is not progressive enough. The leaders of these groups are well-paid ideological purists. They hold Democratic elected officials like Tim Keller to impossible standards and they end up losing, regularly (read: Paid Family Medical Leave this past legislative session). So it’s not about younger and older progressives being divided. Most voters, even Democratic voters, have never heard of Alex Uballez. This is about these well-funded, unaccountable progressive groups wanting a candidate under their control. 

We received this from Oriana Sandoval of the Center for Civic Policy: 

Joe:  Your reader “Carrie Garcia” mentioned the Center for Civic Policy (CCP) in your April 3 post. CCP is a 501(c)(3) organization that does not engage in political activity, including electioneering and candidate recruitment. The claim that CCP is engaged in recruiting mayoral candidates. . .is blatantly false. 

And this from Andrea Serrano of Olé:

Hi Joe, It’s interesting your reader “Carrie Garcia” wrote so confidently about OLÉ - and missed the mark completely. OLÉ is a member-based 501(c)4 organization and while it is true that we endorse candidates who: a. complete our questionnaire and b. are aligned with our values, we have not endorsed in the 2025 Mayoral race and will do so later this spring. Focusing on issues that affect workers and families, we support candidates who deliver for New Mexicans and not corporations. I invite “Carrie” to email us at info@olenm.org if she has any further questions about our process and our organization.

AND ANOTHER 

Take two on Uballez:

 Joe, Don’t know that I agree with the Keller camp about Alex Uballez. I think he will run and he will try to capitalize on his recent TV coverage from the DWI scandal. But he is counting on voters believing he spearheaded the investigation when he is simply prosecuting the players who were investigated by the FBI. 

He will also open the door to scrutiny from his time at the DA’s office, where he prosecuted DWI’s. All the while, Tom Clear was bribing APD DWI officers without anyone noticing. He probably should have recused himself in the federal prosecution. 

As for being tough on crime, what happened to prosecuting gun crimes in Downtown Albuquerque. Uballez stood with Keller at a news conference promising to take a federal hammer to teens and guns in the heart of Albuquerque.

VOX POPULI

A Santa Fe reader comments on our coverage of the very early going in the race for the '26 Dem Guv nomination:  

Joe, Deb Haaland won’t be served well by going negative early. That's the job of the consultants and she should stay well away from it. If Sam Bregman sticks to “all Crime all the time “ and can avoid being smeared by his clients' dubious records ( not his he certainly can’t be faulted for his record in defending the worst of the worst) he will be Okay, But Ok doesn’t win. He will have to crack the liberal bastions in the cities where Haaland has high popularity.

Reader Mitchell Freedman asks:

Hi Joe, I saw your post where It talked about a poll among likely primary voters where State Treasurer Laura Montoya was included as a gubernatorial candidate. I have never heard of her running. Is there an exploratory committee for Laura? 

Treasurer Montoya is not running. Her name appeared to be included in that poll to test the strength of a lone Hispanic candidate running with Haaland and Bregman. The survey was conducted in early December by PPP. Who commissioned the poll has not been publicly disclosed.  

More on the race. . .

Hey Joe, this is Freddie Lopez. With Sam Bregman entering the gubernatorial race, the Democratic primary is going to be absolutely brutal with the contrast between progressives and moderates. Haaland seems on course to beat Bregman when it comes to fundraising with her early haul of over $2 million so Bregman will have a huge challenge. On messaging, Haaland will have to take a more centrist stance on the issues but her record says otherwise. Bregman can use that to his advantage if he can defend his own record. This is going to be very interesting to witness.

Thanks for tuning in. 

Reporting from ABQ, I'm Joe Monahan

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Wednesday, April 02, 2025

ABQ Mayor Field Continues To Grow With Councilor Sanchez Exploring A Bid And Chatter Over Former US Attorney Joining The Fray; Campaign '25 Is Up Next  

Councilor Sanchez
The ABQ mayoral field continues to grow as does uncertainty over how many candidates will make the November ballot.

One of them could be westside ABQ City Councilor Louie Sanchez who has announced an exploratory run but not yet an official candidacy. 

He has put up a website seeking $250 in "seed money" donations as a prelude to his effort to qualify for $756,000 in public financing that will require 3,780 individual $5 donations from city voters. To get them will require a decent campaign organization.

A candidate can make the ballot by gathering 3,000 signatures from registered voters but must get the individual donations to obtain public financing.

So far it appears Mayor Tim Keller, former Sandoval County Deputy Manager Mayling Armijo, former BernCo sheriff Darren White and the aforementioned Councilor Sanchez are positioned to get the ballot signatures. Candidates Eddie Varela and Patrick Sais are question marks.

Keller has previously qualified for public financing and is set to do so again. 

It is unclear at this early stage whether any of the other current contenders will make the grade for that big pile of public money. 

RUMOR MILL

Alex Uballez
Meanwhile the rumor mill is throwing out the name of former US Attorney Alex Uballez as a possible mayoral hopeful.

Dem political consultant Sisto Abeyta says the entry of Uballez could worry Keller as he would be the first progressive challenger to Keller who is seeking an unprecedented third consecutive term. 

As US Attorney for New Mexico under President Biden, Uballez spearheaded the investigation into the historic APD DWI bribery scandal that continues to roil the city with numerous guilty pleas from APD cops and others. The scandal will remain in the headlines through the duration of the mayoral campaign and would be a reminder of Uballez's accomplishments--should he run.

The push for him to run appears to come from younger progressives as older ones stick with Keller. The Keller camp says they don't see a Uballez candidacy happening.

As for Louie Sanchez he, like Armijo and White, will be angling for conservative/moderate voters and perhaps in the process dividing them up and leaving Keller in a sweeter spot. 

One other angle: the Keller crowd will be very interested in getting one of their own in the Sanchez District 1 west side seat. He is a Democrat but has opposed Keller at nearly every turn.

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Tuesday, April 01, 2025

Haaland Camp Sharpens Knives As Bregman Preps Entry Into '26 Guv Race; Battle Lines Drawn Between Progressives And Moderates, Also: La Politica's Bill O'Neill Dies In Santa Fe  

The camp of Deb Haaland is sharpening their knives as Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman prepares his entry into the Dem gubernatorial race. A campaign spokesman issues this warning to their rival:

Sam has never been vetted. He's about to be. His work as a defense lawyer is damaging, especially now that he is adopting a lock them up mentality when it comes to crime. 

For good measure the spokesman dropped a cliche that will be heard often as Bregman crisscrosses the state sporting his now trademark black hat:

"He's all hat and no cattle," offered the Haaland spokesman.

Haaland, the former Secretary of Interior under President Biden, also shares a title with Bregman--former chair of the state Democratic party. 

The initial scoffing over Bregman's chances has waned. One of our Senior Alligators explains:

Bregman will have a clear and defining message--tough on crime--while Haaland has had a soft opening with no clear message. She says 'she is listening' to voter concerns. That contrast will give Bregman a boost with moderate Democrats who will form his base of his support while Deb dominates the progressive wing. She will be the favorite but Bregman's chances have improved.

In addition, there's the money. Haaland, a national political figure has, already raised over $2 million but Bregman collected $500,000 for his successful bid for DA last year. In addition, he made good money as a prominent defense attorney.

Add to that his multimillionaire baseball star son, Alex Bregman, who signed a three year contract with the Boston Red Sox for $120 million, and $2 million seems a much easier hill to climb. Of course, he will still have to show it in this race.

THE POLLING 

A poll conducted last December 4-5 by Dem leaning firm PPP and that is floating in political circles showed Haaland with 50 percent support among the 557 likely primary voters surveyed. Bregman received 18 percent, State Treasurer Laura Montoya 6 percent and undecided was at 27 percent. 

With over a year to go, the polling is of interest but far from definitive and obviously not inhibiting Bregman from entering the contest as Haaland supporters had hoped.

THE BACK AND FORTH

Deb Haaland
While Haaland's camp knocks Bregman, he will tread carefully in criticizing her but his supporters aren't holding back. One came with this:

There's a lack of energy in Haaland's candidacy. She's uncertain about her positioning, like a boxer swinging at air. Many Democrats appear to have passed peak progressiveness and are looking for something different--something that delivers.

The Haaland campaign counters that their candidate has been drawing large crowds, that her politics are well-known and popular among primary voters and take note of Bregman's long record of losing elections.

Bregman is expected to announce in Las Vegas April 10, according to his mailer. That decision is a blatant appeal to northern Hispanic Democrats (especially men) as well as rural Dems statewide. Many of them are culturally and politically moderate. That's why his black hat is staying put--at least for now. 

The cities--ABQ, Las Cruces and Santa Fe--are Haaland's stomping grounds. 

The disconnect of the early campaign is how crime dominates the news in those cities while Dem voters there appear to resist the "get tough" message. Meanwhile in the rural stretches, impacted less by crime, voters are much more receptive.

The primary isn't until June 2026 but the approaching summer of '25 will not be spared the political heat.

FIGHTING IRISHMAN DIES

Bill O'Neill
The career of veteran state lawmaker Bill O'Neill may be most remembered for how he showed a spine of steel and repeatedly defied the demand from GOP Gov. Susana Martinez that the legislature approve a bill stripping undocumented immigrants of their driver's licenses. 

This passage from our January 26, 2012 blog explains why we dubbed him "The Fighting Irishman.":

He is in a district he hangs on to by a thread, and when ABQ Dem State Rep. Bill O'Neill defied the Republican Governor by voting against her bill to repeal driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants, he felt her wrath and that of her operatives. They flooded his district with robocalls in hopes of softening him up for November. Now O'Neill, aka, "The Fighting Irishman," is looking for some armor for the next round of hits he will take on the emotional issue. His office reports: 

Representative Bill O’Neill, House District 15, introduced a bill today that represents the simplest and most effective solution to the volatile driver’s license issue. His bill calls for issuing a provisional driver’s license to foreign nationals who do not have a social security number.

O'Neill, went on to win that battle with a compromise finally crafted near the end of the Martinez years.

O'Neill, who grew up in Ohio, attended Cornell in New York and served as Executive Director of the NM Juvenile Parole Board, died of cancer Monday at a Santa Fe hospital.

He left his ABQ North Valley House seat to run for the state Senate in 2012 and escaped the wrath of the GOP machine. He won and served there through 2024 when he was defeated in the Democratic primary after Senate District 13 was drastically change under redistricting.  

Besides being a politician O'Neill was a noted novelist and playwright, authoring the well-received play Save the Bees that explored bipartisanship in an era of division.

ABQ Dem state Senator Moe Maestas of ABQ said O'Neill was one of the most "authentic" people he has ever served with. O'Neill was popular among his colleagues, chairing a nonpartisan karoke caucus that included lawmakers from both sides of the aisle who met up to relax and blew off steam. 

Senate Democrats said:

He championed many legislative reforms regarding juvenile justice, including prohibiting life sentences for juveniles, and probation and parole measures.  He helped establish Dismas House, a transitional living program in Albuquerque for men on probation or parole. His legacy will be remembered through the countless lives he touched and the policies he advocated through his dedicated service. . .

Bill O'Neill was 68. 

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Monday, March 31, 2025

Alligator Strike: AG Torres Called Out For Luxury South Africa Safari Paid By Corporate Interests, Plus: John Sanchez Surfaces And So Does The Guv Talk, Also: Fire At State GOP Headquarters Draws Heated Reactions 

CNN Screenshot
Attorney General Raúl Torres is seen regularly before TV cameras promoting lawsuits against corporate interests but now he finds himself ensnared by those same interests. 

CNN explored Torres' acceptance of a lavish trip to South Africa (video here) along with other attorneys general, both Democrats and Republicans, and that led to this questioning of Torres:

Reporter: New Mexico's Attorney General Raul Torres is on his way into a public meeting.

Torres: We gotta run.

Reporter: We've reached out to your office. We haven't heard back. 

Torres: Sure, let me do this (meeting) and we can have a talk.

Reporter: (Torres) did not stick around like he promised to respond to our questions.

The NM AG's office is part of a multi-state case against Amazon and CNN points out the company had a representative invited to the South Africa trip from the corporate-funded Attorney General Alliance (AGA).

The South Africa trip is just one of the expensive international strips the group sponsors for their members who are also invited to bring a guest such as a spouse.

The exclusive trip to South Africa in 2023 that Torres took featured a safari, rooms at a five star hotel, wine tours and gourmet restaurants that served waygu steaks. 

AGA covered the cost including a flight allowance of up to $26,000. 

South Africa Safari

The guest list included more than a dozen attorneys general along with corporate lawyers and lobbyists from  companies like Amazon, Uber, Pfizer and Albertson's. Some of those companies have been sued by the attorneys general.

The AGA said:

Foreign delegations have a key role in strengthening bipartisan relationships. . . and educate all delegates on pressing civil and criminal issues. Asked about the safari the group said the visit included discussion on combating the illicit trade of endangered species."


Not all attorneys general take part. Arizona's Democratic AG Kris Mayes said:

It's intentional on my part to put my focus here in Arizona. I will leave it at that

In a statement to CNN Torres' office pointed to lawsuits filed against private companies and said AGA's programs "promote. . .equal enforcement of the law. "

Torres' role as a fighter for the regular guy could be called into question next year when he stands for re-election. But no Republican has won the AG's office since the 1980's and the Democratic attorneys general preceding Torres have also had questionable relationships with powerful corporate interests and the law firms that represent them. Still, the politically ambitious TorRes can't be please that he stepped in a mud puddle.

Mr. Attorney General, for dodging a reporter's questions about your luxurious South Africa junket paid for by the corporate elite while promoting consumer rights, you are hereby the victim of an Alligator Strike. Congrats. . . or something. 

 SANCHEZ SURFACES

Here's former Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez with former NMGOP Chairman Ryan Cangiolosi celebrating at Friday's Bernalillo County Republican Lincoln Day Dinner and renewing speculation that Sanchez may embark on a run for the '26 gubernatorial nomination. 

Sanchez, one of the state's more affable political personalities, is an an old political warhorse who knows that his surfacing will be seen as a near declaration of a candidacy. 

Sanchez, a moderate, is liked in the GOP. 

Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull is the only Republican publicly exploring a possible run. 

This could be Sanchez's time, if he dives in. Hispanic movement toward Trump in the north, Sanchez's high name ID and his personal fortune are all factors. 

GOP ON FIRE

A fire that damaged the entrance to state GOP headquarters in ABQ early Sunday morning has set off an arson investigation and heated reaction from Republicans. 

Besides flames at GOP headquarters there was graffiti drawn on a wall that said  "ICE=KKK." That sent GOP Chair Amy Barela over the top:

Let us not forget: it was the Democrat Party that once supported the formation of the KKK, pushed Jim Crow laws, and defended slavery. Today, we see the same dangerous tendencies play out in new forms — attempts to suppress free speech, silence dissent, and use fear to control the political narrative. 

She also tried--absurdly so--to implicate Dem US Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez in the incident after the congresswoman urged her constituents at a Santa Fe townhall Saturday to "agitate" for change.  

The GOP's scorching rhetoric may serve to do more damage than the fire. The first order of business in the wake of such incidents should be to turn down the temperature, not to add kerosene. 

There is no evidence that a Democrat set the fire. It could have been an anarchist or someone entangled in the immigration process. Or even a disgruntled Republican. No matter. It was wrong. That everyone can agree on and that's enough. But the polarization and the lure of the national TV cameras along with red-hot social media makes divisive sensationalism the order of the day across the political spectrum.

And in the style of the day, the NMGOP quickly started a fund-raising drive, citing the "cowardly act of arson" at their headquarters as an incentive to donate.

The GOP blaze comes after earlier this month Solomon Pena, a former GOP candidate for the state House, was found guilty of hiring people to shoot at the homes of elected ABQ Democrats in 2022 and 2023.

Have a nice day. 

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Thursday, March 27, 2025

Getting Real: '25 Legislative Session Dealt More With Deep-Seated State Ailments; Behavioral Health, Working Class Tax Relief And CYFD Topped The List 

Our wrap on the '25 state legislative session was bumped earlier this week because of our coverage of the mass shooting in Las Cruces. Here's that report.

It was finally a legislative session steeped more in the everyday realities of the state.

The behavioral health bill, the tax code revision that eliminated the state income tax for minimum wage workers and beefier oversight for the troubled CYFD all address deep-seated ailments. The outlier was crime legislation where only relatively minor bills passed.

The behavioral health revamp has been delayed ever since it was wrecked by false allegations of fraud from Gov. Martinez. The approved bill--after a too long delay--begins to put the state back in the game as drug and alcohol addiction, suicides, domestic abuse, homelessness and crime continue at high rates. The bill was a bipartisan recognition of the crisis.

At the start of the session House Speaker Martinez pledged a cut to state income taxes for those on the lower rungs, accurately reading the results of the November election and also seeing the unfairness of billions of dollars piling up with taxes still being needlessly collected on over 100,000 New Mexicans. The bill could have gone much further by broadening the cuts with little fear of the state running out of money. But the compromise does move the state toward more tax relief in a time of massive oil surpluses and the rising cost of living.

An outright elimination of the personal income tax for households and individuals making less than $45,000 a year would give better definition to the party's message as well as reconcile the state's immense reserve funds--now $62 billion and growing--with a declining or stagnant standard of living for a large swath of the state's workforce.

The Legislature could have taken the wrecking ball to the troubled Children, Youth and Families Department (CYFD) but the political will was not there. Instead they passed a long-sought Child Advocate bill that will provide more oversight of the agency scandalized by horrific child abuse cases and incompetence. The Advocate, placed in the AG's office, will only see the results of the department's mistakes. Avoiding them will take more work to change the CYFD culture. (The Governor was none too happy about the encroachment on the executive branch but did sign the bill.)

OTHER ACTION

On the political front, there was the surprising approval of the open primaries bill that will permit 330,000 independent voters to participate in primary elections conducted by the Democrats and Republicans. When it comes to voting, the more the merrier. This change could generate more interest in state governance. Shout out to former state Rep. Bob Perls who labored for years to get it across the finish line

A major reform of the state's Game and Fish Department (soon to be the the Department of Wildlife) made it to the Governor. Proponents said they could live with her veto of a provision dealing with appointment of Game and Fish commissioners because of the other major changes approved.  

NOTABLE DEFEAT

A notable defeat of the session was the paid family and medical leave bill that was a bridge too far for moderate lawmakers. Everyone thought the defeat of several moderate House Democrats at last year's election would finally pave the way for the measure. It as a small but needed win for the small business community. A satisfactory solution has been found in other states so it's back to the drawing board to find one that fits here. 

DEFICIENCY ADDRESSED

One deficiency that has been more than fully addressed in this and other recent sessions is early childhood funding. Now the onus is on state government to see that money effectively deployed and demonstrable progress achieved. You could say the same about the planned rejuvenation of behavioral health. 

CRIME BILLS AND CRUCES

For those rejecting the session as a failure because it did not produce major breakthroughs on crime bills, keep in mind that addressing the holes in behavioral health and early childhood needs is fighting crime. 

And it's not all about repeat offenders. It's also about interrupting the creation of new criminals. The abhorrent murder by automobile of an ABQ bicyclist allegedly by three youngsters--one only 11--and the mass shooting at a public park in Las Cruces Friday night that claimed the lives of three and wounded many more is a bleak reminder of that. 

The Governor said in the aftermath of the Las Cruces shootings the Legislature "should expect" another special legislative session focused on crime. The one she called last year ended in failure. She declared:

The reluctance to have even one productive debate on reducing juvenile crime is shameful,When New Mexicans are demanding action, and we're seeing tragedies like what happened in Las Cruces, policy makers must respond with urgency and resolve.” 

Legislative leaders Wirth and Martinez disagreed with MLG's call for yet another special session, with Wirth indicating that unless legislation was agreed to before such a session, it will again end in failure. 

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Wednesday, March 26, 2025

First Dem Lt.Guv Candidate Thinks Job Is Stepping Stone To Guv's Office But History Says Otherwise 

Garcia Richard

The spring winds are kicking up and the legislative session is over, reliable signs encouraging next year's political hopefuls to come out of hibernation. 

The latest to emerge is State Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard who announced for the '26 Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor and made no secret that she sees the office as a stepping stone to becoming Governor:

I do have designs on (being) governor some day, but right now it seems the best path forward for me, and the next logical step, would be as lieutenant governor.

Unfortunately for her, the office of lieutenant governor has been a hindrance to winning the top job.

In the 1990's under Gov. Bruce King, it was Lt. Gov. Casey Luna trying and failing to become Governor. He was followed by Republican Lt. Gov. Walter Bradely under Gov. Gary Johnson. He also failed to win his party's nomination for governor.

In this century Lt. Governor Diane Denish under Gov. Bill Richardson sought the Dem Guv nod and won  but lost that 2010 election to Republican Susana Martinez. 

Under Gov. Martinez, Lt. Gov, John Sanchez did not try to succeed her but in 2012 he did briefly run for an open US Senate seat only to lose.

Before Garcia Richard is inhibited by that history, she must first win the office that has proved so luckless to those with higher ambitions.

Her candidacy may have been better off if Sen. Martin Heinrich had decided to go for Governor. Garcia Richard would have balanced the ticket by gender and ethnicity.

That would also be the case if BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman, who is busy making plans to run for Governor, captures the Dem nomination. But the front-runner for the '26 nomination is former Sec. of Interior Deb Haaland who, like Garcia Richard, is a woman of color. Haaland and Garcia Richard would be two very woke progressives running together.

For now, Garcia Richard remains the sole candidate for the #2 spot. After two successful statewide elections for Land Commissioner, her chances of victory seem reasonable. 

OTHER NAMES

Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima says he is looking at running for Governor but he might want to take a look at lieutenant governor since he would provide a good balance for either Haaland or Bregman. (Mostly for Haaland since Miyagishima leans to the moderate side like Bregman.)

As for Howie Morales, the current Lt. Governor, he is not expected to seek the governorship but as we reported in February he is hoping to become the next president of Western New Mexico University. 

Maybe someday Howie could run for Governor from that position. History says his chances would be better making a bid from there than as lieutenant governor.

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