Mayor Keller

On the ABQ political scene Mayor Tim Keller remains at the mercy of the political winds and so far those winds have been friendly when it comes to possible competition. 

No major names appear to be making the rounds looking to challenge Keller's unprecedented run for a third consecutive term next year. (Marty Chavez served three terms but not consecutively).

Our exclusive sources reveal that Keller's popularity remains deep under water. They report that recent polling in ABQ legislative districts included a question on Keller and shows his approval rating ranging from the low 30's with a high point of about 48 percent in one of the districts. 

Dissatisfaction with crime and homelessness in the city is widespread but how deep it goes is an open question. If Keller is so vulnerable why is his defeat not already obvious? 

First, mayor is a thankless job that leads nowhere politically. Second, Keller has poor numbers but he is a top level politician who will not be easy to defeat. Also. . .

The city lacks the vibrant local business scene of the past that produced more passionate and well-known candidates. Walmart and similar companies now dominate here and their interests are more national than local. 

Overall, expectations are lower. The city never really recovered from the 2008-09 economic crash and many potential leaders left town, along with what seems like a mass exodus of young people. Population growth has stagnated for years along with the economy. 

There ares no sign that any of that will change in the foreseeable future and there is no clamor for major change--except, perhaps, on crime.

Jeff Apodaca, whose New Mexico Project is backing conservative Democrats, told us he has three names as possible Keller foes next year (not including himself) but he said they don't want their names circulating. That doesn't sound like serious challenges forming. 

The chances of a candidate successfully sporting the Republican banner are much weaker since RJ Berry won two terms in 2009 and 2013. The city was much less Democratic then and the GOP stronger. The party brand is now cursed for a wide swath of Dem voters.

We mentioned Dem Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman in one of our blogs as a possible candidate but have yet to see much to indicate he is prepping a run. He sought the job in 1997.

NEW CHIEF 

Brunner

Keller is prepping his run. This week he announced Metro Redevelopment Director Terry Brunner as his new Chief of Staff. 

Brunner has been a below-the-radar player in state politics. He sharpened his political skills while serving as state director and campaign manager for Sen. Jeff Bingaman and is the former state director of the USDA Rural Development Office.

This is Keller's sixth chief of staff since he took office in December of 2017. And you thought MLG  ran through personnel. Brunner says:

I think it's a challenging position. No doubt there's a lot happening in the city. I look at it as a city going under a transformation in a lot of ways, and so riding that bucking bronco can be tough. But I think I'm up to the challenge.

Brunner, who holds an M.A in Latin American Studies, is being brought aboard as the '25 campaign is set to begin January 1. That's when the city clerk puts out the 2025 election guide and when mayoral contenders start eyeing that nearly $700,000 in public financing available for qualifying candidates. 

In addition, outside PACS formed in support of the individual candidates have become the norm, adding to the cost of the contest. 

Keller's brand of progressive politics has worn thin when it comes to crime which shadows him as does the still-developing APD DWI scandal. In other areas he gets higher marks (e.g. basic services and housing development efforts).

For those dissatisfied with his leadership, they await a candidate who has the gravitas up to the task. For Keller the longer that wait is, the better.  

SUPER MAJORITY?

If the state House Democrats can pick up two seats at the November election they would have 47 of the 70 seats in the lower chamber. That would constitute two thirds of the House which is called a "super majority." So what is the election goal of the Dems--to pick up two seats, of course. 

Technically a super majority means the House could override a veto from Dem Gov. MLG without any Republican support. But such override attempts are rare and holding all 47 Democrats together for a veto override is nearly impossible. 

What a super majority would do is give House Speaker Javier Martinez the ability to have the make-up of the House committees lean more Democratic which in turn could make the outcome of bills in those committees more predictable. 

In 2019 the House Dems fell one vote short of hitting the historic water mark when they had 46 members. 

We'll see if they break through this year when we bring you Election Night results on KANW. 

UNCOMPLICATED CRIME FIGHT?

San Antonio

Maybe fighting crime in ABQ and Santa Fe doesn't have to be too complicated. Take a look: 

Officials mapped San Antonio to a 300-meter-by-300-meter grid, then analyzed which of its 133,000 cells see the most violent crime and when. . . .Officers in patrol cars with lights flashing then are posted in those places for 15 minutes at peak times. Every 60 days, the grids are reevaluated and police resources shifted to cover the toughest 35 or so cells. . . The result was a 37% decrease in violent crime last year in high crime areas compared with the year prior, an improvement criminologists and the police department are confident contributed to an overall 7.3% reduction in violent crime in the city in 2023.

“When this plan first rolled out, not a whole lot of people were happy with it because it just seemed too simplistic and – again, quite candidly – kind of boring,” San Antonio Police Chief William McManus told the city’s Public Safety Committee in April. “But the fact of the matter is, it’s working, and I think everybody has gotten used to it by now.”

The problem here has been a severe shortage of police officers or inefficient deployment of the current force, to the point that Santa Fe spends millions  on private security to protect their historic downtown Plaza and other areas from the crime wave. Then there's there's the shortage of treatment beds for the drug addicted. 

This, against a backdrop of one of the wealthiest states in the nation with $58 billion in various reserve funds, according to the State Investment Council. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

Editor Ethridge

It appears that ABQ Journal editor Patrick Ethridge may have been trying to keep quiet his August 24 shoplifting charge at a Rio Rancho Walmart super center, explaining why for over a month the incident went unreported.

In an interview with us Tuesday, Rio Rancho Municipal Court Judge Robert Cook said that when Ethridge appeared in court last Wednesday morning on shoplifting charges and was sentenced to ten days in jail, he was not represented by an attorney. 

(The criminal complaint filed in the case is below.)

"He did not have an attorney until after the sentencing. He appeared before Municipal Court Judge Michael Gibson and plead guilty to the charge. Judge Gibson waived the fine and sentenced him to 10 days in jail."

Cook said it wasn't until after the sentencing that defense lawyer Todd Bullion began to represent Ethridge and filed a motion setting the stage for an appeal by the newspaper editor. Bullion has said that Ethridge was not aware that he was "skip scanning" items at the Walmart.

In their reporting on Ethridge's arrest, the Journal quoted publisher William Lang as being "shocked to learn" of the arrest. That indeed appears to be the case.

ARREST FALLOUT (CONT.)

On social media the state House Majority Whip and attorney Greg Payne here on the blog both questioned why when the Journal found about the August arrest of their editor they did not report it for over a month. 

Payne, said it appeared that Ehridge was hoping the whole thing would go away and kept it on the down low. He had argued that if it turned out that Ethridge tried to keep the arrest "hush-hush" it would be incumbent on the Journal to dismiss him:

If an elected official had managed to hide the charge from the Journal prior to attempting to enter a very hush-hush guilty plea, the Journal would make that elected official pay twice for it. Did the editor of the paper hide his charge from his employer? If he did, and the Journal didn’t find out until (two days after his sentencing), why wouldn’t they fire him for that?

Ethridge has been placed on a leave of absence by the Journal.

JUDGING THE EDITOR

We originally (and erroneously) reported that Cook, the lead judge at the court and the only one elected, heard the case. But there are two "alternate judges" and Cook said Judge Gibson, who Cook said has been a judge for about three years, heard the Ethridge case because Cook had recused himself from cases that day.

Judge Cook says that neither he nor Gibson knew Ethridge or his association with the state's largest newspaper. He said he may have spotted another name on the list of cases that were to be heard that day that prompted him to have his cases heard by Gibson but said he could not recall.

He explained that paperwork in front of the municipal judges--who are not attorneys and who preside over mostly traffic cases--does not ordinarily list the employer of alleged offenders but does so when there are pre-sentence reports which are not common in Municipal Court. 

The police complaint filed with the court does list Ethridge's birth date and address but not his employer.

He told us he had not spoken to Gibson about his reasons for giving Ethridge ten days confined to the Sandoval County Detention Center.

Cook did not make Gibson available for an interview, saying that he is the "spokesman" for the court and handles media inquiries. Cook is the only elected judge at the municipal court. The two alternate judges are appointed and he is their boss.

WHY 10 DAYS?

Asked if it was unusual or uncommon for a first offender charged with shoplifting of $100 or less to receive so much jail time, Cook said he did not.

"If he had been given the maximum sentence--90 days in jail and a $500 fine--that would have raised eyebrows but I don't find this to be unusual or uncommon." Cook explained. 

Cook said he could not recall off hand cases where he handed out such a sentence for the same offense. 

One of our Legal Beagles said on the blog that the Rio Rancho court is known in the legal community for administering stern sentences.

Judge Cook said Ethridge will serve all ten days of his sentence. That would man Ethridge woud be jailed until this Saturday. 

FULL COMPLAINT 

(Click to enlarge)

Here is the criminal complaint filed with the Rio Rancho Municipal Court in the Etheridge case: 

On August 24th, 2024, I, Officer Marcus Packer of the Rio Rancho Police Department was notified by RRPD Dispatch to proceed to the location of 901 Unser BIvd SE, in Rio Rancho, New Mexico. Dispatch advised the call for service was in reference to an active shoplifting incident.T he calling party was Wal-Mart Asset Protection (AP). 

AP advised there were two young boys inside of the store, described as approximately 10 vears of age, one boy was wearing a black shirt, and the other was wearing a Chicago Bulls jersey over a grey hoodie. The boys were reportedly acting disorderly around the store, knocking over displays and concealing items. I arrived on scene and observed the described juveniles to be in the self-checkout section, alongside their parents. I made contact with the family and advised them of the ongoing allegations. 

Accompanied by the family, I proceeded to the AP office to view surveillance footage of the allegations. The two boys were identified and the father was identified as Patrick Ethridge. . . During my contact they were not in possession of any merchandise. Asset Protection advised the boys were observed taking a can of Monster Energy Drink each, drinking from the item and then placing the drinks back on a shelf. During my contact with (the boys) they were not in possession of any merchandise. 

After reviewing surveillance footage, Patrick was observed to be "skip scanning" items while located at the self-checkout. Patrick would scan some items but not others, leaving several items unpaid for. (Video footage will be uploaded to Axon Evidence when AP is able to obtain the surveillance). The sum of all unpaid merchandise, including the energy drinks the boys consumed, was $104.20  

SEND IN THE SATELLITES 

If only 10 percent of this money was devoted to satellite delivered internet it could dramatically alter the shortage in rural New Mexico:

The state Office of Broadband is inviting local governments, tribal communities, nonprofits, internet service providers and electric cooperatives to apply for $675 million in federal grant funding that New Mexico is getting to expand internet access. State data estimates that 16% of New Mexico’s 873,797 locations are either unserved or underserved. Data shows around 70,609 locations are completely unserved and another 72,384 are underserved. Applications at OBAE’s website.

Many of those "unserved" locations will never be able to be served by ground-based fiber networks while Starlink continues to provide satellite internet across the planet and with speeds that meet the state's standards. If you're listening, Elon, please get your application in.

And if there's a problem using a company owned by Elon Musk, don't forget there's also satellite internet available from a firm owned by billionaire Jeff Bezos' Project Kuiper.

And Jeff is married to a New Mexico gal. So what's not to like? 

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Rebecca Dow

What's the tightest race in Election '24?

After scouring the state from Anthony to Angel Fire; berating our Senior Alligators to open their jaws and consulting an ancient spin decoding device passed on to us by original Senior Alligator Andrew Leo Lopez of the ABQ South Valley, we have the answer. 

So without further ado and accompanied by a drum roll from the Rio Grande Ravens marching band, we present "The Tightest Race in the State."

And the suspense-filled answer is state House District 38 featuring Dem state Rep. Tara Jaramillo versus Republican and former GOP state Rep. Rebecca Dow. 

How close is it? One of those operatives of the Dem variety and at the top of his party's food chain, explained it this way:

Joe, this is the race that is mostly likely to keep you going late into Election Night. The polling is incredibly close and the results might not be known until the next day. Both candidates are spending heavily and campaigning actively. It is the closest race in the state. 

We can use that fuel to keep us going when we broadcast the latest election night results and analysis on KANW radio even if it has to be a down-ballot race.

But we can already hear some of you Gators arguing that "no, the southern congressional race between Yvette Herrell and Gabe Vasquez is the closet race."

Sure, that's a potential nail-biter but that late August Emerson College poll showing Dem Rep. Vasquez nine points ahead was not made out of thin air. The poll may have been faulty but it did show a trend. 

And we repeat for the umpteenth time, half the vote in the 2nd Congressional District (under redistricting) comes from the reliably Dem counties of Dona Ana and Bernalillo.

The race is still a race and should be close. Vasquez and Herrell will both need to keep their foot on the accelerator but the gerrymander the Legislature did on this district makes this a lean Dem deal--not a toss-up. But we digress. . .

JARAMILLO VS. DOW

Rep. Jaramillo

As for Jaramillo and Dow, both are described as high quality candidates. 

Jaramillo, 55, is a speech pathologist who is a co-founder of Positive Outcomes in Socorro which provides services such as home healthcare for families who have children with disabilities (like hers).

She is seen as a moderate Dem. For example, she is against a ban on automatic firearms and voted against increasing the tax on booze (even though we prodded her to do so.)

Dow, 51, has also been involved in child care as a profession, having founded AppleTree Educational Center. She also served in the House from the old version of this district from 2017 to 2023 and if she returns to Santa Fe she could soon find herself in the GOP leadership. 

Dow, a bedrock conservative, also ran for the 2022 GOP Guv nomination, bolstering her name ID and fund-raising ability.

And look at this. The SOS reports the district of about 19,000 voters is now 40 percent Dem, 34 percent Republican and 25 percent independent with not a few of those indy's leaning toward the GOP. 

Then there's abortion which could be a runaway issue for pro-life Dow in this rural district that runs east of I-25 from Socorro to northern Las Cruces. But the pro-choice position held by Jaramillo has appeal to many non-Dem women everywhere. 

Jaramillo won in '22 by a mere 123 votes--50.7 percent to 49.3. 

The money is a real horse race with Jaramillo raising $266,000 so far and Dow $296,000. As of September 9 both had over $225,000 in cash on hand for the final weeks. 

We can only hope those Senior Gators and top operatives are right and that this race is close again no maTter who wins. After all, who wants to go home early on Election Night?  

 DUMPING PEARCE

Steve Pearce

A reader writes of our September 17 blog highlighting the dire straits the state Republican party continues to find itself in and some solutions to rebuild the party:

Joe, I’m surprised dumping GOP Chairman Steve Pearce, who’s been unable to navigate the blue skies of NM, didn’t come up in your list of things the GOP needs to do to make comeback. To a degree, Nella Domenici is prototyping a possible path by keeping her distance from Trump and making clear her position on abortion without compromising her beliefs. The fact that dumping Steve Pearce didn’t come up suggests the GOP is even deeper trouble that suggested by your list. 

Pearce, 77, will finish up his third, two year term as state GOP chair later this year. He is not expected to seek a fourth term (but he hasn't announced his decision publicly). The new chair will be selected  by members of the GOP state central committee after the November 5 election. 

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Journal Editor Patrick Ethridge

At first it seemed like satire. ABQ Journal editor Patrick Ethridge had been jailed for ten days for shoplifting at a Walmart super center in Rio Rancho. 

"Yeah right," the politicos opined as they rolled their eyes. 

But it turned out to be true and since the Journal is the largest newspaper in the state the incident raised questions about how the paper handled the bizarre affair while asserting it was doing so with "transparency." 

Ethridge, 47, was shopping with his two sons August 24 when Walmart surveillance video showed them "acting disorderly" including opening energy drinks and then placing them back on the shelf. 

When Ethridge went to check out the store says he failed to scan a number of items. When confronted, he offered to pay but Walmart wasn't buying and he was busted on a charge of shoplifting of $100 or less.

But what really dumbfounded La Politica was what happened last Wednesday and disclosed by the Journal in their Saturday edition. Ethridge pleaded guilty to the charge before Rio Rancho Municipal Court Judge  Robert Cook and was sentenced to an astonishing 10 days behind bars for the petty misdemeanor. 

The editor was hauled off to the Sandoval County Detention Center and, according to jail records, was taken into custody at 10:17 a.m. Wednesday morning. 

WHY JAIL TIME?

Court records consulted for us by attorneys show Ethridge has no prior offenses or arrests in the short time he has been in New Mexico. He took over the editor's post in May 2023, coming here from Nebraska. But locked up for ten days it was.

One of our Legal Beagles offers a plausible explanation for the judge throwing the book (or the newspaper, if you prefer)) at editor Ethridge:

Joe, on it's face that sentence is unusual. If he didn’t have prior offenses, then he probably got belligerent with Walmart’s loss prevention officers. I would guess there is a good possibility the latter is the case as Walmart tends to hire ex-cops who take umbrage at anyone who doesn’t immediately go belly up. Also, unlike a lot of other retail places, Walmart has some fairly strict policies about no concessions on pleas , and if a “victim," even one represented by only an officer present, the courts will get input from them on sentencing.

Under New Mexico law, a petty misdemeanor is punishable by up to six months in jail and/or a $500 fine.

Ethridge, according to the Journal, did offer to pay for the items he failed to scan, claiming he did not know he was not scanning them but that wasn't enough to prevent him from being arrested.

HEAT OVER TRANSPARENCY 

William P. Lang

So that's how the case came down but how did the shoplifting arrest of the top editor of the Journal stay secret for so long--from August 24 until last Friday when the Journal reported the incident and with publisher/owner William P. Lang, declaring:

We don’t know or understand all the details yet, but were shocked to learn that he has been charged with shoplifting and sentenced by a Municipal Judge in Rio Rancho, where he is currently serving ten days. At the Albuquerque Journal, we believe in being transparent, and holding people to a higher standard, including ourselves. We appreciate your support and concern, and will report more information when it is clear to us.”

Ethridge has not been fired from the paper but placed on a leave of absence.

But attorney Greg Payne, a former state legislator, ABQ city councilor and veteran political analyst who has tangled with the paper in the past, isn't letting Lang and the Journal off the hook:

I mean, if this involved a state representative that no one knew--and who also didn’t run the largest newspaper in New Mexico--the Journal would’ve covered the fact that he or she had been charged.  And if that same elected official had managed to hide the charge from the Journal prior to attempting to enter a very hush-hush guilty plea, the Journal would make that elected official pay twice for it. Did the editor of the paper hide his charge from his employer? If he did, and the Journal didn’t find out until Friday, why wouldn’t they fire him for that?

Payne wasn't the only one piling on. State House Majority Whip Rene Szczepanski scorched the Journal on Twitter, asking: 

The arrest happened over a month ago. Why is it just being reported now?

The Journal has been merciless on the House Democratic leadership over the ABQ crime crisis, putting the blame at their doorstep in scathing editorials, some authored by a writer imported from Hobbs, the most conservative region of the state. Now it's payback time as the Journal deals with its own criminal activity by its most important employee. Will there be an editorial about that?

THE ETHRIDGE SIDEBAR

The editor is being represented by noted criminal defense attorney Todd Bullion who was co-counsel with Jason Bowles recently as they defended Hannah Gutierrez Reed, the armorer on the movie set of Rust. Bullion's office is near Journal Center on Lang Avenue which is named after the Lang family that has owned the newspaper since 1926.

Ethridge replaced Karen Moses as editor.  The top salary listed for the job was advertised at $120,000 which we pointed out at the time seemed low for a large metro paper. But the Journal and other dailies have struggled financially to attract advertisers in the internet era. 

Ethridge came to ABQ from the Beatrice Daily News, a town with a population of only 12,000, according to the census. For him his move here was a trip into the big time. Now, unfortunately for him, he is doing some hard time--Rio Rancho style. 

KALTENBACH CREDENTIALS

Kaltenbach

Several readers pointed out that while we concentrated on Emily Kaltenbach's role in legalizing marijuana in New Mexico as head of the Drug Policy Alliance, we did not mention her experience in the areas covered by the state Department of Aging and Long-Term Services. MLG appointed her as the new secretary for the agency and here's that experience from the official news release:

Kaltenbach brings more than two decades of leadership in public policy, health care reform, and advocacy, as well as a strong track-record of advancing services for older adults (and) individuals with disabilities. . . Her extensive background also includes leadership positions at the Aging and Long Term Services Department and in the New Mexico Office of Health Care Reform, where she contributed to significant policy reforms benefiting older adults and people of all ages with disabilities. Kaltenbach holds a master’s in health care administration and has served on multiple boards dedicated to public health, cannabis regulation, and community safety. Her leadership in health care reform and social justice issues makes her uniquely positioned to lead ALTSD as it navigates the challenges facing the state’s growing aging population. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.       

The latest addition to MLG's cabinet is Emily Kaltenbach, a top promoter of legalized marijuana for New Mexico during her role as director of the NM Drug Policy Alliance. 

She's the new Secretary of the Aging and Long-Term Services Department, but let's hope that turns out better than the state's pot party that she helped author. 

Investigative reporter Larry Barker reports the latest:

Despite stringent laws and regulations a dark cloud hangs over the cannabis industry plagued by a thriving black market, flagrant criminal activity, and hundreds of millions of dollars. . .  “It sounds like complete lawlessness but the reality is, it’s more true than not,” said Duke Rodriguez, CEO of Ultra Health, the largest licensed cannabis operation in New Mexico. “The industry is running amok,” said Will Glaspy, Executive Director of New Mexico HIDTA (High Intensity Drug Trafficking Areas). “We gave a storefront to the drug cartel when we passed recreational marijuana,” state Rep. Bill Rehm said. 

. . .There are so many cannabis-related violations, that regulators at New Mexico’s Cannabis Control Division are powerless to curb the illicit activity. “It’s horrible. It’s not the idea that I have for New Mexico,” Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Joseph Cervantes said. “We know there’s crime, massive crime worth millions of dollars right under our nose and we’re not willing to do anything about it."

The Guv and Kaltenbach were repeatedly warned about the downside of legalizing weed, but those expressing concerns were dismissed and they responded that the industry would be an economic game-changer. 

Well, they were right--but in all the wrong ways. 

In any event Kaltenbach's gubernatorial reward is a $200,000 annual salary. 

Congrats on your appointment, Emily. . . or something.

Reader Freddie Lopez writes this on the drug topic:

Joe, Everyone seems to be expressing the same sentiment that drugs are the leading cause of the crime, specially in Albuquerque. If the Legislature and the Governor truly care about addressing this, there would be funding for addiction treatment programs and bills introduced to get people who are struggling with the help they need. But as you mentioned, local law enforcement and the city council have a responsibility to address this first and foremost. Fentanyl and other dangerous narcotics are coming through our Southern Border which is a crisis. If the Governor declared an emergency and the Legislature came together just on that issue, crime would come down significantly. There should be more treatment for drug users and more punishment for drug dealers. 

REPAIRING DOWNTOWN 

Terry Brunner, director of ABQ's Metropolitan Redevelopment Agency spearheading downtown revival efforts, disagrees with the view expressed here that the plan to pump $200 million into the downtown over the next 20 years would take money from other neighborhoods: 

 Joe, Tax Increment Financing (TIF) areas do not “shift revenue from other neighborhoods” as some have claimed. Whatever revenue the City has been earning from a (TIF) area continues to come into general funds when that TIF is established. The city has the option to collect up to 75% of gross receipts and property tax revenue growth above that baseline amount and reinvest it in the area it came from. 25% or more of the any revenue growth goes into the City coffers to be spent city-wide. 

For instance, if the base revenue received currently in a TIF area is $1,000 and it grows by $100 to $1100 over the course of a year, $75 is reinvested into that TIF area and $1,025 is spent City-wide. If the TIF is successful in increasing private sector growth Downtown, collections into the City’s general fund will increase over time and benefit the entire city. 

NELLA'S DIVE

A Dem political operative responds to our Wednesday blog detailing why Republican Nella Domenici's campaign to unseat Sen. Martin Heinrich has stalled out:

A big reason she’s failed to gain traction is that her advertising strategy has been all over the place. From a content standpoint, you’re right that her early ads missed the mark and did little-to-nothing to help define her. She’s also failed to pick up steam because of her lack of investment in a sound ad strategy. She rarely lets her ads accumulate enough frequency for them to have a high impact and her campaign vacillates between running them at very low levels over long stretches of time or putting them up and then pulling them down. Nothing has stuck. I think she’s out of gas and doesn’t want to spend any (more) of her own money. Can’t say I blame her. It seems like amateur hour over there.

PROPERTY TAX CUT

Damian Lara

Who says taxes don't go down? 

It's just a smidgen of a reduction but Bernalillo County Assessor Damian Lara reports property tax bills for homeowners in 2024 will drop from $1,627 per $100,000 of assessed value to $1,608.67. Says Lara:

The office staff been working diligently to make sure that every property is assessed fairly and equitably. When the assessments are accurate, everyone shares in the tax burden equally and this year that means a small decrease.

Lara, a Democrat serving his first term, is not up for re-election until 2026. 

He adds that the state has approved a mill rate of $1,838 per $100,000 of assessed value for commercial real estate, a reduction from $1,843 per $100,000.

That residential tax break translates into about $55 bucks a year on a home with an assessed value of $300,000. As they say, don't spend it all in one place.

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They say the apple doesn't fall from the tree but in the case of Nella Domenici Nella she's not even in the same orchard as her legendary father, Pete Domenici, the longest serving US Senator in state history. 

She is getting blown out in the polls, whatever missiles she fires at Sen. Martin Heinrich don't seem to hit their target and there is zero national buzz about her reclaiming the seat.

What is going so wrong for a candidate who is much better than her dreary polling numbers indicate? 

This is a candidate who had the acumen to amass a multi-million dollar fortune; a woman able to survive the rough and tumble of male dominated Wall Street to amass that hedge fund fortune; a candidate who took a law degree at Georgetown while holding down a full-time job and later graduated from Harvard Business School. And yet. . .

Domenici, 63, tried to sell herself as an updated version of her moderate GOP father but the introduction immediately fell flat for several reasons. She has lived primarily on the east coast her adult life and has had very little involvement in public affairs here. She was unknown and neither liked or disliked. Worse, her initial pitch did not make voters seem curious to find out more. 

By clinging tightly to her father's coattails at the outset of the campaign, but having no record of her own (being born here is not a record) she looked more like an opportunist than the scion of a legend. That was back in June and July but the image appears to have stuck. 

The same thing happened to her brother, attorney Pete Domenici, Jr. who entered the 2010 gubernatorial race with a splash only to finish fourth in a five way primary that was won by Susana Martinez, even though his father had only left the Senate in 2009.

It’s not all their fault. New Mexicans don't take kindly to dynastic politics.

Gary King, the son, of three term Governor Bruce King, couldn’t get his engine started when he ran for Governor in 2014. Edward Lujan, brother of popular US Rep. Manuel Lujan, Jr. faltered when he tried to succeed him in the late 80's. Mike Runnels, son of former southern Dem US Rep.  Harold Runnels, made it to lieutenant governor in the 80's but that was the end.  

That mold was broken once when Ben Ray Lujan, son of longtime state House Speaker Ben Lujan, was elected to the US Senate in 2020.

THEN THERE’S TRUMP

Then there's Trump. 

That may be even more important to why Nella has not caught fire. In an era of hyper partisanship, she shied away from the former president, trying to appease Dems and swing voters by refusing to say whether she would vote for him this year or had voted for him in the past. 

She also threw water in the face of the Trumpers by saying she would not go after his endorsement. 

But today’s GOP is Trump's GOP. On her own she has simply been unable to consolidate the conservative GOP base in the state, never mind make inroads with the Dems and independents she must have to get close to Heinrich. 

TALE OF THE TAPE

Let's look inside Nella's numbers in the SurveyUSA conducted September 12-18 in which Heinrich beats her 47 to 34 percent with 19 undecided. They tell the tale:

In the presidential poll released this week Harris beats Trump here 50 to 42 percent. That's an eight point deficit for Trump compared to Domenici's 13 point deficit--47-34--with Democrat Heinrich.

Among Republicans Domenici manages only 74 percent support against Heinrich while Trump receives 88 percent GOP support against Harris. (There's her Trump problem) He has consolidated the GOP base and she still has not.

Women, who Domenici has courted assiduously while stressing that she is not an anti-abortion zealot, aren't buying in. Domenici loses them 50 to 28 percent. Abortion remains an albatross for most Republicans, no matter how they try to fade the heat. 

Hispanics, who one might think Domenici would have entree with because of her father, fail to show up for her. Heinrich out polls her 46 to 29 percent while Trump manages a much better 39 percent of the Hispanic vote against Harris who gets 53 percent.

In Bernalillo county, key to a statewide victory, Domenici has not even begun to chip away at the Blue wall. She trails Heinrich here by a massive 55 to 30 percent.

Domenici even loses men to Heinrich, the most reliable GOP voters, who give him 45 percent to her 39. 

That does nothing to help her overcome the huge if not unexpected gap she has with women where Heinrich scores 50 percent to her 28.

DECEIVINGLY VULNERABLE

Not that Heinrich, 52, isn't showing some weakness as he seeks a third term. In the ABQ Journal poll he is right on the money number of 50 percent--not above. Domenici is still breathing, if struggling for air.

His name ID has not been particularly strong and encouraged Domenici's bid against him. 

His identity despite nearly 20 years on the scene remains muddled. And his legislative record is not robust. 

Would a different GOP candidate, say a youngish Hispanic man or woman, have a better shot? Perhaps.

But Heinrich is one the more effective campaigners the state has produced, starting his races low and finishing high. He can be seen as overcautious--as when he recently dumped Biden--but his chess moves work. And his low-key personality has worn well. Think of a laid back Jeff Bingaman, another longtime NM Senator. Heinrich's middle class background rounds out an image that many voters find relatable.

While Heinrich has appeared deceivingly vulnerable, the past glory of Domenici's father has failed to form a solid foundation for her and Donald Trump is a wall that the determined Domenici has yet to jump over.

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After months of legal wrangling the NM Project threw in the towel Monday and agreed to settle the case brought against them by the State Ethics Commission, agreeing to fully comply with state campaign reporting laws and disclose all of its donations and expenditures. (Full settlement here.)

District Court Judge Joshua Allison had rejected the Project's argument that it was not required to report to the state because it was an educational group exempt from such reporting by federal regulations.

The group further asserted it was advocating for issues important to Hispanics and not directly supporting the conservative legislative candidates listed on their website. 

Project co-founder Jeff Apodaca, a Dem Guv candidate in 2018 and son of former Gov. Jerry Apodaca, had told us the group would appeal the court ruling but Monday the Ethics Commission announced they have prevailed and settled the matter:

TNMP Inc. will. .  .disclose information relating to its donors and expenditures, providing New Mexicans with necessary information regarding who is attempting to influence their votes. The settlement includes that (TNMP) register as a political committee with the Secretary of State. . . shall file with the Secretary of State all required reports of its expenditures and contributions. . .shall provide a check to the State for $1,000, corresponding to a civil penalty for a violation of the Campaign Reporting Act. 

Jeremy Farris (Sun-News)

“The State Ethics Commission remains committed to ensuring that New Mexico’s campaign finance laws are followed,” said Jeremy Farris, Executive Director. The Commission’s commitment to disclosure and to the rule of law is independent of and irrespective of the content and viewpoint of political speech. This settlement. . . reinforces the importance of transparency in New Mexico’s political process. The Commission will continue to work to protect the public’s right to know who is funding efforts to influence New Mexico’s elections.”

Apodaca and Project attorney A.Blair Dunn, came with this response:

(We were) able to reach an agreement with the Ethics Commission that allowed for transparency in elections while pushing for reforms in the Commission regarding the process by which they address concerns for violations of law and constitutional protections for private citizens. Jeff Apodaca. . .stated “The New Mexico Project has never been a Dark Money PAC. We are a 501(c)(4) organization committed to advocating for First Amendment rights, with a focus on amplifying Latino voices and ensuring our votes matter. . .

Attorney Dunn said "we appreciate that we have been able to have the Ethics Commission hear our concerns . . . regarding how Commission staff interacts with members of the public. We hope that litigating this matter has shed important light on the needs for due process versus a rush to judgment coupled with statements to the media to attack citizens and will push needed First Amendment reforms in all state agencies.” 

Apodaca says the group will continue "to stand up for Latino voters across our cities and state, challenging the attacks from these ultra-liberal progressives who target our Latino political leaders—leaders who truly represent our interests.”

The Project was ordered to file its donations and expenditures by October 2. They spent money for radio ads in the primary and Apodaca has said the group also plans on spending for the general election.

ANOTHER BATCH

Another batch of polling has dropped, confirming that Sen. Heinrich holds a commanding lead over Republican Nella Domenici and that MLG's approval rating is below the key 50 percent mark but not in the cellar. 

In the survey conducted by SurveyUSA online Sept. 12-18 for KOB-TV Heinrich gets 47 percent, Domenici 34 and undecided is 19 percent.

The margin of error is put at plus or minus 5.4 percent. 

Never mind that Heinrich is below 50. The big news in all the Senate polling has been Domenici's inability to break the 40 percent mark. Actually, it's kind of startling.

The assumption is that she will move to the low 40's in October as more undecided break, but landing in the winner's circle is a longshot. 

MLG'S approval rating in the SurveyUSA is 47 percent and her disapproval 45 with 8 percent not sure. That's her best showing in three recent polls. Her approval rating average from the trio of polls is 44.3 percent. 

Not that the numbers mean all that much. She has already gone bust with the legislature and can't seek re-election but she continues to be mentioned as a possible appointee if VP Harris takes the White House.

SurveyUSA results of the southern congressional district race are also expected this week. 

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After years of hearing that a broken criminal justice system is to blame for the ongoing crime crisis, the voting public is still able to sort out what is really behind the problem--rampant drug abuse, stubborn systemic poverty and homelessness--all making for fertile ground for fentanyl pushers and wannabe criminals.

A full 26 percent of likely voters point to drugs as the "leading cause" of crime with 16 percent citing poverty and 12 percent homelessness. 

An argument can be made--and tough on crime advocates make it--that if law enforcement is stepped up and the flow of fentanyl from Mexico and the cartels is interrupted the crime crisis takes a major hit. 

But it is mainly people on the lower income rungs who are looking for a fix or a house or business to break into to feed their habit or themselves. The public rightly believes drugs combined with impoverishment has caused this hard rain to fall.

As for how serious voters consider crime, the poll confirms the theory that this is chiefly a city problem:

The poll found that 60% of those who live in the Albuquerque metro area, where the majority of the state’s crime occurs, feel it is a very serious problem while 37% in eastern New Mexico and 39% in Las Cruces and the southwestern part of the state agree. In north central New Mexico, 22% see crime as a minor problem. Pollster Brian Sanderoff pointed out that area encompasses more than just Santa Fe and includes Taos, Las Vegas and smaller communities. “So we’re seeing a big difference in perceptions regarding the seriousness of crime when it comes to how very serious it is,” he said. 

The Legislature and Governor have a major role in crafting solutions to the underlying causes of crime such as poverty and drug addiction but when it comes to actual law enforcement, this poll shows why local mayors and city councils--especially in ABQ--should be held responsible.

Speaking of which. . .  

BACA BAN BOMBS

ABQ City Councilor Joaquin Baca, whose district includes downtown, was almost run out of town when he proposed banning the homeless from sleeping on downtown sidewalks. But that liberal attitude is a relic of the past in liberal San Francisco where homelessness has been rampant for years. The latest:

Sidewalks once teeming with tents, tarps and people passed out next to heaps of trash have largely disappeared from great swaths of San Francisco, a city widely known for its visible homeless population. The number of people sleeping outdoors dropped to under 3,000 in January, the lowest the city has recorded in a decade, according to a federal count And that figure has likely dropped even lower since Mayor London Breed — a Democrat in a difficult reelection fight this November--started ramping up enforcement sof anti-camping laws in August following a U.S. Supreme Court decision.   

This raises the question of how a city proposal that would invest millions of dollars in tax revenue into downtown redevelopment would ever work if people are allowed to sleep on its streets.

CABINET SHUFFLING

Padilla (Journal)

As for the state crafting long-term solutions to the drug and poverty mentality, that falls in part on the leaders of the Public Education Department (PED) and  the Children, Youth and Families Department (CYFD). The news from there is not especially encouraging: 

“I will be here till the end,” said the incoming Secretary of Public Education." 

If that sounds something like a death march keep in mind that Mariana Padilla is the fifth PED Secretary under MLG's watch and the same stubborn education issues persist.

Other than having spent time as an elementary school teacher, Padilla, a longtime ally of MLG who worked in her congressional office and has been serving as director of the Children's Cabinet, does not have substantial education experience. 

Previous Secretary Arsenio Romero was forced out when the Guv objected to him applying for the presidency of NMSU. Romero made the wrong bet and last week was not chosen by the school's Board of Regents. Talk about flunking out. . .

Another MLG political ally, Teresa Casados, was taken from the Governor's office and put in charge of the dysfunctional Children, Youth and Families Department. Like Padilla, her credentials for the position were sketchy and her leadership is now being faulted by an impatient Legislature balking at the agency's continued failures. 

House Speaker Javier Martinez says a bill calling for more stringent oversight of CYFD will be brought back at the next legislative session. (And come on Teresa, stop with the pushback. This is your shot to make a real difference.)

The state has literally billions in excess revenue because of the oil boom but remains stymied when it comes to the critical areas of education and child well-being. 

As we've said four previous times, congrats to new Secretary-designate Padilla. . .or something. 

GABE BOLTS ON BILLIE JEAN

It seems as if the legendary Billie Jean King, who ran circles around her opponents on the tennis court, has southern NM US Rep. Gabe Vasquez on the run. 

Vasquez, apparently worried about keeping his swing House seat this November, took a walk on a measure awarding Billie Jean, a prominent advocate for the LGBQT community, a Congressional Gold Medal:

MEDAL FOR BILLIE JEAN KING: The House has passed the Billie Jean King Congressional Gold Medal Act (S. 2861), sponsored by Sen. Kirsten E. Gillibrand, D-N.Y., to award a Congressional Gold Medal to King, a women’s tennis player of primarily the 1970s and an advocate for higher status for women athletes. The vote, on Sept. 17, was 308 yeas to 87 nays.

YEAS: Stansbury, Leger Fernández NOT VOTING: Vasquez

The act now goes to President Biden for his signature. We don't suppose Gabe will be at the signing ceremony. 

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Elaine Sena Cortez

Progressives dominate the state's agenda but New Mexico has hardly moved the needle on the myriad of social woes that plague the state. All the while Republicans have lost ground as we blogged about Tuesday. Now comes a damning indictment of the progressives from soon-to-be state Rep. Elaine Sena Cortez of Hobbs who won the Republican primary in House District 62 and has no Democratic opposition in November. Here's her column:

Our governor and the progressive majorities in the state Legislature don’t appear to be interested in offering workable solutions at a time when our state is facing the worst violent crime rate in the country; our public schools are consistently ranked last for student success; the crisis along our southern border has created a fentanyl epidemic that is killing too many New Mexicans; generational poverty threatens the long-term future of our families; and abused and neglected children are failing to receive the protection they deserve. I believe progressive Democrats are wholly responsible for these problems since they have controlled the Legislature and the governor’s office for the last six years, yet they want to talk about one issue: abortion. 

There is something fundamentally wrong when the party charged with leading our state refuses to address the critical issues facing our state but has no reluctance to base their quest for political power almost solely on the backs of the unborn. For far too long, Republican candidates have stayed silent regarding abortion and have hesitated to engage their progressive opponents on this sensitive issue. In turn, this silence has permitted progressives to define Republicans as being anti-women or not caring about women’s health care issues. 

Unfortunately, this false narrative perpetuated by progressives has allowed them to take total control of the state and enact a devastating agenda that has made our state unrecognizable. Abortion is an issue that requires real conversation: Should there be restrictions around viability? Should parents be notified if their minor child has an abortion? Should women be given all the information about available resources when making tough pregnancy-related decisions? Should taxpayers have to pay for something with which they morally disagree? Should New Mexico taxpayers be footing the bill for out-of-state residents to obtain abortions here? The repeal of Roe v. Wade returned these and other policy questions to the states. 

ONE TRICK PONIES

Progressive Democrat lawmakers, however, have refused to consider any of these important questions. As a result, they have made New Mexico an abortion capital of the U.S. Progressive Democrats have become one-trick political ponies, touting abortion every chance they get, so they don’t have to address the other crises in our state. 

If New Mexico voters continue to choose progressive candidates this November, then they have no excuse to complain about our failing schools, our neighborhoods becoming crime battlegrounds, our children suffering abuse and neglect, our crumbling health care system and opportunities for our kids and grandkids disappearing. They will have proven that their all-abortion, all-the-time strategy is all that’s needed to maintain their failed leadership. Our state cannot afford a Democratic-controlled Legislature that continues turning a blind eye to every issue except abortion. It is time to have real discussions about the issues facing our state, all of them. 

OUR THOUGHTS

Sena Cortez effectively indicts the prevailing powers but what she and Republicans would do differently and in a manner that finds support in a mainly nonconservative electorate remains on the table. 

Also, her call for a "real conversation" on abortion bypasses the fact that an overwhelming majority of New Mexicans are not interested in further discussing abortion. They are pro-choice and supportive of the status quo. 

The conversation needed on abortion is within the confines of the Republican party and how it proceeds to shed itself of a strident opposition that has made possible the "one trick pony" politics that have been so effective for Democrats at the ballot box. And not so effective in governing mode. We'd be interested in hearing more on that from Sena Cortez but her approach to abortion seems unyielding and hyperbolic, the same characteristics that have chased voters here away from the GOP.

Still, Sena Cortez does confront the core questions that faces Santa Fe: 

How can billions of dollars in excess revenue not be making a major difference in the quality of life of so many New Mexicans and where is the accountability?

Sena Cortez is a business consultant and holds a doctorate degree in business administration from the University of the Southwest in Hobbs where she also teaches.

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