Tuesday, November 17, 2020Udall Seems To Be Closing In On Interior Appointment, Plus: Big Campaign Contributors Prep For Legislative Session A plan championed by retiring Sen. Udall to harness the nation’s lands and ocean waters to fight climate change is getting a boost from President-elect Joe Biden, who has made slowing climate change a priority for his incoming administration. Udall, 72, is seen as the candidate with perhaps the best chance to win an easy confirmation from his colleagues in the Senate. Republicans may not like his views but he is not a lightning rod. And the AP reporting that Udall worked as an aide for Biden in the early 70's is more grist for the mill. As for how a Udall appointment would impact New Mexico, it's a mixed picture. Oil and gas would fear his climate change agenda and how it might impact their activity on public lands. Enviros would welcome his emphasis on climate and conservation. Udall's prospects may have improved in the aftermath of the election. For the first time since 1996 Arizona this year voted for the Democratic presidential candidate. That will make the Grand Canyon state a swing state in the 2024 election. While a long-serving New Mexico politician, Udall and his family legacy are inextricably linked to Arizona. Udall's father, Stewart Udall of AZ, was Secretary of Interior under Presidents Kennedy and Johnson and served from January 1961 until January 1969. His uncle Mo Udall served in the House from the Tucson area and was a high-profile chairman of the then Interior Committee. Those are not only environmental credentials but political ones. Taken together the surprise wouldn't be that Udall gets the nod from Biden but that he doesn't. THE THIRD Udall would be the third New Mexican to serve as Interior Secretary. Albert Fall held the position from 1921-23. He was named to the cabinet by President Harding while serving as a US Senator but lasted only two years before being felled by the Teapot Dome Scandal. Former ABQ GOP Congressman Manuel Lujan was elevated to the post by President H.W. Bush in 1989 and served until 1993 when the defeated Bush left office. FOLLOWING THE MONEY Major private interests were big donors in Campaign '20 in anticipation of the 2021 legislative session, including cannabis, guns and payday loans. NM Ethics Watch has been tracking the action: The cannabis industry reported spending nearly $90,000 in general election campaign contributions to cultivate influence with new -- and old -- lawmakers.
And with efforts to create tougher regulations for installment loans --popularly called “payday loans”-- also likely to be debated in the Legislature next year. . . companies associated with such lending handed out more than $40,000 in campaign contributions. There has been no indication of proposed gun legislation for next year’s Legislature. But pro-gun control organization--Everytown for Gun Safety--backed by billionaire Michael Bloomberg--continues to contribute to state Democrats. The group gave $215,000 to candidates and political action committees (PACs) during the general election period. By contrast, the National Rifle Association has contributed $2,500 to candidates here, all of it to Republicans. “Big businesses as well as large advocacy groups know that one of the best ways to establish friendly relationships with lawmakers is to donate to their campaigns. It’s impossible to say that big contributions `buy access’ to officials. But they certainly don’t hurt,” said Kathleen Sabo, executive director of NM Ethics Watch. Large recipients of cannabis money during the general election included ABQ Dem Rep. Javier Martinez and Roswell GOP Sen. Cliff Pirtle. Both received a $5,000 contribution from Ultra Health, the state's largest medical marijuana distributor. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.
  Monday, November 16, 2020Virus Fatigue Could Impact NM Lockdown As Economic Consequences Continue To Bedevil Santa Fe; Course Correction Awaited The economic consequences of the virus continue to bedevil the state. Santa Fe pushed out a $400 million loan program to ease the impact on businesses and employees but the program has been a bust because it was too restrictive. It now has to be reworked, likely in a special legislative session that MLG says will soon be called. She also plans to put $100 million of federal coronavirus funds to work to alleviate economic pain, with an eye on the high jobless rate. Even a rewritten loan program could be behind the curve. To thwart the virus the state has shut down thousands of businesses and again thrown thousands out of work for the rest of the month. This time it is in the most economically active quarter of the year. If the virus is not restrained, the shutdown could be continued. Instead of loans the city of ABQ is using $10 million of its federal coronavirus money for direct grants to businesses with fewer than 50 employees threatened with collapse. Big boys like Wal-Mart and Target can ride out the storm. If Santa Fe simply copies the ABQ program the money could quickly get out to impacted businesses and workers now--not months from now or never (if there's a problem with the state anti-donation clause charge a small fee.) Santa Fe's damaging penchant for fiscal austerity lingers. If the state is going to get as serious about the impact of lost livelihoods from the virus as it is about the health consequences it's going to have to start showing the money--not impossible to get loans with fine print conditions but cash in hand with few restrictions. The government has shut the state down. Business and workers are not to blame. The virus is. As for that special session, House Speaker Egolf believes it could last just one day and be held remotely. He foresees one omnibus economic package on the table. Then there's the regular 60 day session in January. Gathering 112 lawmakers remotely amid the virus for that length of time is unrealistic. A truncated session of a week could get a budget crafted for the fiscal year starting July 1, keeping in mind that another special session might be needed before then. Also, lawmakers could easily repeal that outdated abortion statute that caused so much upheaval in the June primary and has already passed the House. In addition, the long debated proposal to tap the $20 billion Land Grant Permanent Fund for early childhood education could pass quickly in January now that its chief Senate foes are gone. The measure has repeatedly passed the House. The amendment could be put before voters at the regularly scheduled municipal elections in November. Given the technical challenges, legalizing recreational marijuana could have to wait for a special session called in late spring to finish the work of the shortened 60 day meeting. For the 2021 legislative session less is better--much better--as we await the arrival of a vaccine. We knew that ABQ streets get their names from the developers of the particular subdivisions but we didn't know that if you and your neighbors want to change the name on your street there is a process to do that. . . We blogged last week that the last incumbent NM US Senator to be defeated was in 1976. Actually, it was 1982. That's when Dem Jeff Bingaman defeated Republican Sen. Jack Schmitt. It was 1976 when Schmitt beat Dem Senator Joe Montoya. Anna Muller, a well-known Republican politico and accomplished ABQ business leader, has died at the age of 77. And Johnny Morris, who for decades held forth on the ABQ TV airwaves as a well-liked news anchor, has passed away. He was 96. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)
Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Thursday, November 12, 2020DC Angling: Ben Ray Already Making Leadership Play, Cabinet Guessing Game Goes On And Another NM Political First
Lujan is letting it be known he's interested in becoming the new head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) is finishing her term there. Lujan held a similar position while a congressman, leading the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in the '18 cycle and overseeing an increase in Dem House members. Lujan has turned out to be a natural in forming political relationships, much like his late father NM House Speaker Ben Ray Lujan. In the recent campaign he was knocked as a major DC player who did not deliver enough for the state. There was a bit of truth in that and it stung. Now he will have six years to balance the DC power game with delivering desperately needed dollars to federally-dependent New Mexico. The 48 year old Lujan is playing the long game, knowing that no incumbent Senator has been defeated in NM since 1982. With Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer nearing 70 and Whip Dick Durbin near 76, the Dem leadership is likely to change a decade out. Remember, Lujan parlayed his stint at the DCCC into Assistant House Speaker, the number #4 position in the House. GUESSING GAME MLG as Sec. of Interior? The guessing game is going over-the-top as to who Biden will tap for his cabinet. Until the NYT mentioned her for Interior the NM Governor has been pinpointed mainly for the Health and Human Services slot. That's still the most likely. The Times also mentions Montana Gov. Steve Bullock as an Interior possible, along with three other New Mexicans--Senators Tom Udall and Martin Heinrich and ABQ Rep. Deb Haaland. Native Americans are pushing for one of their own at Interior. It would be a first. Perhaps mindful of that, Udall's office comes with a list of accomplishments he's had in Indian County during his long political tenure. He is currently Vice-Chairman of the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs. SANTA FE JOCKEYING More pot boiling speculation in Santa Fe as the bureaucracy ponders the possible elevation of Lt. Governor Howie Morales to the governorship, if MLG scores a cabinet post. We get this mischief making note from inside the education department: Joe there is an active campaign at the Public Education Department by two deputy secretaries, Kata Sandoval and Gwen Perea Warniment to move Gwen into the Secretary of Education position. She has talked to superintendents about this, as well as several staff at PED. There is little interest in this move internally. If the Governor is tapped for the Biden administration and Howie becomes Governor she has asked that he tap her as the new secretary. Well, check that as rumor but multiply it by a factor of 100 if Morales does ascend to the governorship. Meantime, Deputy Sec. Perea Warniment checks in to say that she has no interest in becoming Sec. of Education. "I definitely do not want to be Secretary and am not angling to become Secretary." She said. Got that rumor mill? ANOTHER FIRST
Doña Ana County has a new district attorney who is ready to hit the ground running. Though Gerald Byers, 62. . . said he doesn't want to sound presumptuous about not having an opponent but is pleased with the outcome. "I think that everybody will be able to work together for that ever-elusive goal of total justice in society, because people expect it and people deserve it. . ." This is an historic win. Byers said he is the first African American district attorney to be elected in the state of New Mexico. Henry Valdez, director of New Mexico's Administrative Office of District Attorneys, said he isn't aware of any other African American individual in the state who has held the office. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)
Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. Wednesday, November 11, 2020Taking Her Seat: State's Soon-To-Be New Congresswoman Is All Smiles Amid Redistricting Threats As Speaker Egolf Walks Back Comments
Appearing on Fox and Friends Tuesday morning, Herrell was confident, poised and all smiles. Winning has a way of doing that. (Video here.) And win she did, trouncing Dem Rep. Xochitl Torres Small by the unexpectedly large margin of 54 to 46 in the southern congressional district race that was billed as a toss-up but ended in a near blow-out. Analysts continue to ponder the considerable victory. Herrell has some theories of her own, telling the national TV audience that President Trump's strong showing was key, pointing out that he had won the conservative district by 10 points in 2016. He is thought to have carried it at least by that much, if not more this time. Final figures are not yet available. Herrell also attributed "the oil and gas situation that is such a huge part of New Mexico" for part of her winning margin. In the final presidential TV debate VP Biden made anti-fracking comments that appeared to further inflame the oil counties of Chaves, Eddy and Lea, providing even more Trump/Herrell votes. In 2018 when Herrell lost to Torres Small she was unable to score the easy landslide wins and solid turnout that are expected of a GOP candidates in the oil counties. That was not the case in 2020. For example, in Lea she pulled 78 percent of the vote. OFF TO DC Now it's off to DC for the 56 year old member of the Cherokee Nation. What committees will she serve on? That's to be decided but her campaign says Energy, Agriculture, Armed Services and Natural Resources are all natural fits for the sprawling district that is home to military bases, oil fields and dairy farms. Outoing Rep. Torres Small sits on Armed Services, Homeland Security and Agriculture. As for Trump, who Herrell publicly leaned on for her primary win but less so in her victory last Tuesday, she has come with this statement to supporters: I continue to stand with President Trump and fully support his efforts to ensure that the votes being counted are legal. I participated in an update call with the Trump campaign and patriots from around the Nation. There are several ways we can all continue to have President Trump's back -- just like he's had ours for the last four years:
- Donate to President Trump's official Election Defense Fund and report any instances of possible voter fraud or irregularities The message seemed more pro forma than heartfelt and a Republican Alligator familiar with the congresswoman-elect's thinking said our read is correct. After all, if there was widespread election fraud it could raise questions about Herrell's clean win. Also, she has been criticized for implying that the 2018 US House election was stolen from her. Not subjects she needs hanging over her head now. It appears Trump will be a large presence in the GOP in the years ahead and he could be a significant fund-raiser for his favored candidates. In Herrell's case that could come in handy as GOP legal fees could mount in fighting the Democratic Legislature's attempt to redistrict the seat away from her. EGOLF'S ERROR
I in no way intended or meant to imply that that district is being singled out as a result of the outcome of an election. Going forward, this is not a Left or Right issue. New Mexico has undergone significant demographic changes over the last ten years and the 2020 Census will give us a better snapshot as to where in our state New Mexicans call home. Redistricting will reflect those changes and will be conducted in a fair, open, and transparent process. We told the Speaker earlier this year that if an incumbent Republican holds the southern seat redistricting them out in 2021 would be more difficult than if a Dem held it. We didn't know our prediction would come true so quickly. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com)
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Tuesday, November 10, 2020Still Another Big Foot To Drop In Post-Election New Mexico; Key Senate Leadership Post On The Line, Plus: Covid Politics
The race is a doozy with at least five Democratic Senators said to be in the running and with all 26 Dems set to caucus November 21 to make their choice. The Pro Tem is selected by the entire Senate. Despite holding a majority in the chamber, the Democrats have been unable to advance one of their own to the powerful post since 2009 without GOP involvement. That’s when conservative Dem Senator Tim Jennings formed a coalition with minority Senate Republicans to win the position. After he left, Mary Kay Papen became the coalition's champion. She and other conservative leaning Dems were defeated in the June primary, Now, for the first time in over a decade, it is highly likely that the coalition as a formal entity is dead and that the senator chosen by the Senate Dem caucus will be the next Pro Tem without Republican help. Sen. Pete Campos was the Dem caucus choice in 2012 when Sen. Papen took it from him with the help of the R's. Campos is now the longest serving Senator (first elected in 1990) and is again campaigning for Pro Tem. He's joined in the race by the oldest Dem Senator--78 year old Jerry Ortiz y Pino and Senators Ivey-Soto, Lopez and Stewart. One possible deal floating is intriguing and may be the best way forward for the Democrats as they unwind the coalition. It would have Campos selected as Pro Tem and place Ortiz y Pino in the chairmanship of the most powerful committee of them all--Senate Finance. Or it could have those positions reversed.
Some Dems might invoke identity politics and demand that a woman be Pro Tem, but a woman has already had the post so there's no first to be had there. Sen. Mimi Stewart is already in leadership as majority whip and could be kept there. Sen. Linda Lopez would remain chair of the powerful Rules Committee.. Pino on Senate Finance would be a huge win for progressives seeking to rebuke the fiscal austerity that has enveloped the capitol this past decade and Campos' appointment would calm the waters with R's, moderate Dems and the business community. Campos would have to swear off any intention of playing footsie with the GOP and Pino would have to be willing to make the move to Finance and give up his Pro Tem dreams but it's a compromise that breaks through the chaos of a crowded contest and that calmly places New Mexico on a new political path. COVID POLITICS The explosion in coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths could mean further state restrictions. We predicted last week that such restrictions could be met with sterner opposition in the south where Trump and the R's scored big on Election Night. We said in the absence of a general shutdown or something similar, it will be up to the state to increase its virus fighting efforts. That brings this reaction from an administration spokesman: The state is doing exactly what you describe as necessary (targeting hotspot businesses, targeted closures, a “crackdown” rather than a “shutdown” – and adding contact tracers and dramatically expanding testing where the virus is spreading worst, in GOP counties and in the south broadly) – so we have done exactly that. Of course we haven’t seen the results we want yet – the state is doing what it can, and will continue 24/7, but New Mexicans need to buckle down too. . . The onus is not only on the state but on the political party that is proudly pro-virus and doesn’t care how many New Mexicans are getting sick, how full our hospitals are, or how many New Mexicans die – more and more every week. . I know you are writing from the perspective of the reality (which I don’t disagree with) that Trump people are going to be emboldened by their election results, We all recognize that reality. But this isn’t just political. Well, it's a real stretch to claim the opposition party to the administration doesn’t care how many people die from Covid. And is anyone anywhere “pro-virus?” MLG is expected to offer an update this week on any further state action. This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.
Monday, November 09, 2020Biden Clinches Presidency Now The NM Waiting Game Begins: Two Cabinet Posts Seen As Possibly Going To State It's unusual for New Mexico to be mentioned for one cabinet post never mind two. Is that one too many? We'll soon find out, but for now both MLG and Udall top the list for their rumored cabinet slots, according to various national media. Axios points to MLG's Hispanic background as key to her possible appointment: After Joe Biden whiffed with Hispanic voters in some states, Democrats are urging the president-elect to nominate several Latinos to high-profile Cabinet positions. Among those in contention: California Attorney General Xavier Becerra for Homeland Security, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham for Health and Human Services, and Rep. Filemon Vela for Commerce or Transportation. Becerra and Grisham have quietly conveyed their interest to Biden’s team. What's new there is that MLG "conveyed" her interest to the Biden team personally. That's a step up from a NYT report several months ago that said people close to her were letting it be known she was interested in joining the cabinet. MLG is a co-chair of the Biden transition team and her Chief of Staff John Bingaman is taking a leave of absence to help with the transition. That's quite high on the poltical food chain. Politico also reports Lujan Grisham is a top possible for HHS and that Sen. Udall for Interior is a good bet: . . . Udall of New Mexico is the top contender to be secretary of Interior. His father, Stewart Udall, was Interior secretary from 1961 to 1969 and is credited with a major expansion in federal land protection, including the creation of dozens of wildlife refuges, national parks and recreation areas. Udall, who says conservation is in his DNA, has laid out plans to enlist federal lands in the fight against climate change and has driven efforts to block drilling near the sandstone mesas and ruins of northwest New Mexico’s Greater Chaco region. Udall is a liberal but getting Senate confirmation is seen as a plus for him, even if the R's continue to control the chamber. MLG is seen as a centrist--not a progressive--thus her confirmation chances are also seen as good in a GOP Senate, barring any unexpected surprises. Dem Senator Maritn Heinrich has also been mentioned a possible Interior pick, but not with as much emphasis as Udall. Heinrich, who has been living in Maryland, recently registered his kids with ABQ Public Schools and is said to be quietly eying a possible run for the 2022 Dem nomination for Governor, if Lt. Morales ends up in the Governor's chair. Attorney General Balderas is doing the same. If history is a guide Biden will fill out his cabinet by mid-December. Meantime, the waiting room to watch this waiting game is overflowing with interested onlookers. THE BOTTOM LINES Just how popular was early voting in Tuesday's election? This popular: 90 percent of Bernalillo County's vote was cast early. The total turnout was 319,510 with 141,340 absentee ballots and 145,289 in person early votes. Only 32,881 BernCo voters went to the polls on the actual Election Day. This is the home of New Mexico politics.
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Thursday, November 05, 2020Three Election Takeaways And A Dip Into The Reader Mailbag --The results make it more difficult for MLG to impose restrictions because of the coronavirus. The strong Trump vote will encourage those who have all along been skeptical of and/or defied the public health orders. The state needs to do a better job with contact tracing, identifying the "hot spots" and if necessary do targeted shutdowns. The days of closing the entire state down without widespread protest and defiance ended Election Night. The onus is on the state to step up its game. --The challenge of redistricting the southern congressional district to make it more Dem has suddenly grown more challenging with GOP Congresswoman-elect Yvette Herrell taking the seat. Resistance to do a gerrymander will be much more vocal and public. Not that the Dems won't make a play to turn it blue but some of their own members may not have the stomach for the fight that would surely ensue. --Progressives will have the muscle at the next session of the Legislature but they don't have the money. The state is scraping buy awaiting federal relief, But with the US Senate staying in the hands of the R's any coronavirus relief package could be modest. The progressive agenda that doesn't cost direct tax dollars (legalized marijuna, abortion and tapping the $20 billion Land Grant Permanent Fund for early childhood education) will have the best chances. MAILBAG Richard Flores writes: In one of your pre-election blogs there was some speculation that Republican Mark Ronchetti's run for the US Senate was a precursor to a future run for Albuquerque mayor. If in fact that was the thinking, his resounding loss in Albuquerque puts that idea to rest! With regard to Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, it has been and will continue to be extremely difficult for any Democrat to win that district given the vast disparity between registered Republicans and Registered Democrats in southeastern New Mexico. Ronchetti lost to Lujan 57 to 41% in Bernalillo County, just shy of 50,000 votes. He finished six points behind Lujan statewide--52-46. That's a one point improvement from Election Night for Lujan as late returns are tallied. President Trump lost Bernalillo County to VP Biden 61-37% and 76,000 votes. Reacer Carl Stevens writes: The Dems in Albuquerque and northern New Mexico have so little understanding of the dynamics of southern New Mexico. I had hopes that the congressional race would at least be closer and a fantasy that Torres Small might be able to pull it out, but most Democrats down here did not have that optimistic feeling. As a Dem from Southeast New Mexico, who lived and worked in Albuquerque and Santa Fe, I can tell you that they are truly different worlds. There was really nothing to pin hopes of ballot splitting on other than an assumption that the Yvette Herrell-Claire Chase Republican primary fight would spill into the general. And a Senior Alligator writes: I hope the progressives in Santa Fe and Albuquerque are pleased that they tanked Xochitl with their absolute negligence of her race (where were the all hands on deck for Xochitl??). I bet they are real happy to let the Republicans back into the delegation and to have slimmer margins in the US House. Where was MLG for Xochitl in Cruces? And Joe Biden may win, but he’s winning ugly. The long knives do tend to come out after an election, don't they? Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.
Wednesday, November 04, 2020Election 2020 Results: A Blue Wave Meets A Red Ripple: Everyone Has Something to Celebrate In Split Results; Dem Landslide in Cities And Red Rural Muscle The wave also knocked the wind out of President Trump handing him a 61 to 37 defeat in BernCo but the blow was softened by the rural Red Ripple and he ended up losing the state and its five electoral votes 54 to 44 percent. If only Dem US Senate candidate Ben Ray Lujan could have had that margin against Republican newcomer Mark Ronchetti who was trounced in BernCo by Lujan by 50,000 votes or 57 to 41% but the red rural voters helped him pick up some of the slack and Ronchetti outpaced Trump and he ended the night by keeping Lujan to a somewhat modest 51 to 46 margin with the Libertarian candidate taking 3 percent. The surprise of the night was the overall weakness of Rep. Xochitl Torres Small. The race was expected to be a squeaker but Republican Yvette Herrell prevailed by a healthy 54 to 46 margin. Trump's dominant performance in the southern congressional district, combined with resistance to state Covid restrictions, were pointed out as reasons for the early end of Torres Small's congressional career. There was also this from longtime analyst Greg Payne: She tried to be all things to all people and ended up nothing to everyone. That meant she barely threw a bone to the progressive Dems in the district, gambling on R's splitting their tickets. They didn't and the progressives were unenthused with her conservative pivot and it showed in her lack of muscle in Dona Ana County. House Speaker Brian Egolf was among many Dems who said that while Torres Small lost her rematch with Herrell she remains a Dem bright light and will be seen again. Meanwhile, Herrell now is the de facto leader of the forlorn and shrunken NM Republican Party. Can she help rebuild it or will she be a one term wonder, falling to victim to Democratic redistricting in 2021? TURNOUT As promoted, Election 2020 was a turnout record-breaker At 1:30 a.m. today the SOS had recorded about 912,000 votes, eclipsing the previous turnout record of 833,000 of 2012.The turnout was 67.5 percent of registered voters. That fell short of the record of 70.4 percent set in 2008. TALL NORTHERN WAVE The Blue Wave was ten feet tall in the northern congressional district and gave Dem Teresa Leger Fernandez an easy 58 to 42 win for the seat being left vacant by Rep. Lujan. In the ABQ district Rep. Deb Haaland had no trouble handling R Michelle Garcia Holmes, winning her second term with the same margin TLF scored--58 to 42 percent. Because of Leger's win the state's five member congressional delegation will for the first time be all women. While the Dems flipped three BernCo Senate seats, Neomi Martinez Parra could not keep the seat of Deming Senator John Arthur Smith in their corner. She knocked off Smith in the primary but R Crystal Diamond prevailed over her last night in the most expensive state Senate race in the state. The race between Dem Pam Cordova and R Josh Sanchez for the Valencia/Cibola county Senate seat that was held by Clemente Sanchez but who was ousted by Cordova in the primary, appeared to go to Sanchez. The contest was a surprise. With the Diamond win and apparent Sanchez win, the R's made up two of the seats flipped by the Dems in BernCo giving them a net gain of one. Still, the state Senate was charting a more liberal course as a result of the primary when conservative-leaning Dems were knocked off. Nothing last night changes that. The Senate started the night 26 to 16 Dem. The ABQ Dem Senate victors were Dem Harold Pope, Jr. over R Sen. Sander Rue; Katy Duhigg over GOP Sen. Candace Gould and Dr. Martin Hickey who beat R John Morton to flip the seat of retiring Senator Bill Payne in the ABQ NE Heights. STATE HOUSE RESULTS The state House started the night 46 to 24 Democrat and will end up close to that when everything is counted. Speaker Brian Egolf says the Dems could end up losing one or pick up a couple when the races are fully accounted for. Again it won't make much difference. The Dems and their commanding majority will remain on a liberal course. That constitutional amendment that would abolish the five member Public Regulation Commission (PRC) and replace it with a three member panel appointed by the Governor won 55 to 45 approval. All the state supreme court and court of appeals races were swept by the Dems, although the red ripple helped curb the margin of victory in the traditionally blue judge seats. The Bernalillo County Commission wilL continue to have one GOP member. George Benson chased away a close Dem pursuer to take the NE Heights seat 52 to 48. RURAL-CITY DIVIDE Lt. Governor Howie Morales told our KANW 89.1 FM radio audience that the election results show the polarization between New Mexico's cities and its rural areas has hardened. A former Silver City state Senator he pledge himself to trying to somehow bridge the divide that comes down to values and Trump. The unresolved presidential race put on the back burner rumors that Gov. MLG could get a spot in a Biden cabinet, making Morales Governor. Analyst Payne said that the strong red showing in rural New Mexico reminded him of when the GOP used to be competitive statewide but he said they did that by also being competitive in the ABQ area. "Until they crack that nut and figure out how to diminish these landslide totals in ABQ and cease the intraparty infighting, they will remain in the wilderness," he opined. Thanks to all who tuned in to our radio broadcast and to our exceptionally well-informed panel. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020 Tuesday, November 03, 2020The Finale: Election Day 2020 Arrives With Vast Majority Of Votes Already Cast; Record Turnout A Near Certainty; Our Election Night Coverage Starts At 6:30 P.M. On KANW 89.1 FM And KANW.COM Our Election Night coverage begins at 6:30 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM ABQ/Santa Fe and KANW.COM.An explosion in early voting will propel turnout for the 2020 election to previously unimagined heights with over 70 percent of the state's 1.350 million voters expected to cast ballots. A record turnout is a near certainty easily eclipsing the 2008 record of 833,000. The US Elections Project, relying on data from the SOS, reports 782,047 early votes were cast. And there are still 71,500 absentee ballots in the hands of voters with today the last day to get them in. The great majority of those absentees are expected to be counted. Combine that with today's Election Day voting and turnout should easily surf past 900,000 with the possibility of 950,000 and beyond still on the table. In terms of percentage of registered voters casting a ballot, we may reach the record from 2008 election when 70.4 percent of registered cast ballots. To do that we would have to get to 951,674. 48.6 percent of the early vote came from Dems who have 45.2% of the state's registered voters. Republicans made up 34.9 percent. Their state registration is 31.3%. Independents cast 15.4% of the early vote. They make up 21.5% of state registration. 467,675 people voted early in-person and 385,884 requested absentee ballots. Republicans and independents are expected to favor Election Day voting today more than the Dems. The lesson? If voting is made easy, voters vote, especially in a controversial presidential election. Because of the pandemic absentee ballot applications were sent to all registered voters and they responded in droves. As we've blogged, this election is bound to redefine how New Mexico votes in the future with mail and early voting an even larger part of the equation. Voters simply want the convenience and their elected representatives will respond. The large turnout is benefitting Democrats, according to the polls. President Trump lags far behind Joe Biden and if Democrats pad their majorities in the state Senate and House they can largely thank the historic turnout. IN THE HOUSE  If a rebound is going to happen we can first look to the far ABQ NE Heights seat of appointed Dem State Rep. Marian Matthews who faces R Bob Godshall. The district is affluent and Republican. The Dems took it in the '18 blue wave with Bill Pratt as their nominee. He passed away and attorney Matthews was appointed to fill the seat. Both sides see this as the R's #1 pick-up opportunity. R's are trying to knock off another freshman blue wave victor---ABQ area Dem Rep. Karen Bash--who took the NW seat from R Rep. Moncia Youngblood whose drunk driving arrest sunk her. But with Biden poised for a metro landslide, Dems are confident this seat will be a hold for them, even though the district can correctly be called lean R. Outside of the ABQ area R's are spinning hopes for a pick-up of the Las Cruces area seat of Dem Rep. Willie Madrid. Former Republican Rep. Rick Little carries those hopes. This is the third election in a row this duo have faced each other. They each have won it once. This is the tiebreaker. That's just a taste of the top House races and we'll cover them all tonight. Dem insiders say a good night for them would be to hold all their incumbents and pick up a seat or two. A good night for the R's would be similar--a pick up of at least two. But with the Dem majority already so lopsided, it will be any internecine warfare between Dems that observers will be watching for at the next legislation session, rather than clashes between D's and the badly outnumbered R's. VALENCIA IN THE NEWS It's always a good idea to keep an eye on Valencia County on a presidential Election Night. The Politico is among those watching: Valencia County has the longest streak of picking presidents of any county in the United States. It started in 1952, when Dwight D. Eisenhower ended the Democratic Party’s two-decade-long occupation of the White House. In every election since, the candidate who has carried Valencia County has also won the presidency. Valencia is 41% Dem, 36% R and 20% independent. Dems are thinking it could go their way after voting Trump in '16 because of the President's weakness among suburban women nationwide. Tonight we get the answer. TONIGHT'S THE NIGHT  Dem State Reps. Moe Maestas and Tara Lujan will maintain the legislative desk along with Marianna Anaya, president of Emerge NM. GOP consultants Bob Cornelius and Doug Antoon will cover all things Trump and also eagle eye that hot southern congress race. Dem consultant and political lifer Sisto Abeyta will dig deep for trends in all the major races. He'll team with fellow vet Steve Cabiedes. And we'll coax some pearls of wisdom from two other experts of La Politica--ABQ attorney David Buchholtz and Santa Fe attorney Cliff Rees. Then there's our army of Alligators who will blow up our phone if we should stray from our mission. Should be fun. See you tonight.
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Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020 Monday, November 02, 2020On Election Eve Suspense Looms Over Outcome of State Senate Races And Southern Congressional Battle; Other US House Races Set For Dem Blowouts
Chief among them is what the current 26-16 Democratic state Senate majority will look like at the end of tomorrow night. Most politics watchers expect the Dems to add to that majority but the chances that the night ends with no change can't be dismissed. Then there's the southern congressional race. It's tighter than a hangman's knot and no telling who is going to be on the wrong end of it. Off we go for a final trip around the 2020 campaign trail. . .
Progressive Democrats got their job half done when they ousted prominent conservative leaning Dem senators in the June primary, but now the state waits to if those primary winners prevail and if their numbers will be boosted more by the defeat of GOP senators struggling for their political lives as a sea of blue floods over big Bernalillo County. There is uncertainty over how far the Senate will veer from the center-right when it gets back to work in January. What's at stake Tuesday is fundamental policy regarding education funding, marijuana, abortion, energy regulation and more. Will the progressives unlock more Election Night treasure or see their growth spurt slowed? Heading into the final hours, La Politica is hovering over the ABQ westside district of GOP Senator Sander Rue--like vultures waiting for the inevitable. Rue has been on the ropes since the start and the death watch only intensified with each passing day. The often moderate and well-liked Rue could survive but Dem Harold Pope Jr. Seems poised to take the seat and become the state's first Black state Senator. How "progressive" would he be? The business lobbyists will go to work on him in record time. Two other GOP seats at risk in BernCo--Candace Gould in the North Valley and Rio Rancho and the NE Heights seat being vacated by Republican Sen Bill Payne--are also teetering in the face of what is expected to be a landslide for Biden in the ABQ metro. In the final ABQ Journal poll Biden was pounding Trump 62-34 here and beating him 54-39 statewide. The Corrales area seat of conservative leaning Dem Sen. John Sapien, who retired, is now expected to be placed in more liberal Dem hands, those of Brenda McKenna--although that district has a history of very close races. The Grants area seat of Senator Clemente Sanchez, who was ousted in the Dem primary, is expected to go to Pam Cordova over R Josh Sanchez. Not much has been heard about the Valencia County "Battle of the Bacas." But Dems are putting Paul Baca on their radar in the final hours, hoping for a possible upset of freshman GOP Senator Greg Baca. They anticipate Valencia going blue in the presidential contest and it could pull Paul into the winner's circle, along with him outspending Greg. Senator John Arthur Smith, perhaps still smarting from his June primary defeat by giant killer Neomi Martinez Parra, has gone public and predicted that the Republican will take his seat and that Neomi will lose to GOP bright light Crystal Diamond. Dems admit this one could go either way. But the progressives have already won--Smith is not going back to the Roundhouse and is headed to the rocking chair circuit. The huge conservative power he accumulated will go with him--with or without Diamond. Our Senate watchers will be out in force on KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com starting at 6:30 Election Night. Rarely is there no surprises in the legislative contests. We'll check in on the late state House action tomorrow. SWEATY FINGERNAILS The southern congressional race is so tight that when you look at it your fingernails sweat. The final Journal poll had it 48% to 46%, with Republican Yvette Herrell holding the tiny lead in a survey with an anything can happen margin of error of nearly 5 per cent. We've been here before. In their 2018 match-up Herrell led by one point in the final Journal poll but Xochitl Torres Small eeked out a win of 3,722 votes. Can it get any closer? Well, yes. The 538 forecasting site gives Torres small a very small edge of winning, putting her chances at 56 out of 100. The forecast popular vote is a deja vu of '18---50.6 to 49.4. Turnout is expected to come in around 225,000 to 250,000 If that popular vote forecast were to become reality Torres Small would defeat Herrell by the slim margin of 2,700. WHY SO TIGHT?  President Trump is running strong in the south, unlike his lagging performance in the ABQ and northern congressional districts and that is supremely important for Herrell. He was only 4 points ahead in the early September Journal. But pollster Brian Sanderoff predicts that Trump's margin of victory there will now exceed the ten points he won it by in 2016. Statewide Biden was beating Trump 54-42 in the Journal poll. Also, while Republicans had held their fire in early voting and are expected to show up with more force on Election Day in ABQ and the north, in the south the R's rushed to the polls early, outperforming the Dems by about 8,000 votes as of Friday night. Torres Small has to step on the gas tomorrow and get more Dems and Independents to the polls, especially in vote-laden Dona Ana County. It's all about enthusiasm and energy and the southern R's (particularly the SE R's) have had it and put on an impressive show. Now the stage is set for a finish of high drama. It's like watching the roulette ball swirl around the wheel as your heart pounds in anticipation. . . Enough already. Our fingernails are sweating again. SENATE RACE Ben Ray Lujan appears to have sealed the deal over Mark Ronchetti with the final Journal poll giving the northern congressman an eight point lead of 52-44. Libertarian Bob Walsh was pulling 3 percent. That's solid for Lujan but not a few Dems are expressing disappointment that the 10 year House veteran is not beating the former TV meteorologist by double digits. Lujan was not exceptionally well-known statewide at the start of the campaign and Ronchetti kept his foot on his neck with constant negative ads. But it appears Lujan will have six years to figure it all out--the length of a term in the United States Senate. The ABQ and northern congressional contests are, as expected, set to be blow-outs for the Dems. BE CAREFUL OUT THERE ABQ Dem state Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino, 78, has this cautionary note for those planning to vote tomorrow, especially those like him who are in the high risk group for coronavirus consequences: THE BOTTOM LINES Thanks to radio personalities T. J. Trout of KKOB, Eddy Aragon of ABQ's Rock of Talk and Richard Eeds of KTRC radio in Santa Fe for making us part of their election coverage this cycle. We've enjoyed it. Here's our recent interview with Eeds. A reminder: Our Election Night coverage on public radio KANW 89.1 FM and KANW.COM kicks off at 6:30 Election Night. E-mail your news and comments. (newsguy@yahoo.com) Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2020 |
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