Forrester & Haaland

Our senior sources report that veteran political consultant Scott Forrester is out as campaign manager for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Deb Haaland. 

The reasons given are unspecified concerns over campaign finances and squabbling over strategy.

We sought comment from Forrester but received no response and could not reach a campaign spokesperson.

Forrester, 43, has a resume that includes managing Haaland's first US House campaign in 2018, serving as NM Dem Party executive director and as chief of staff to ABQ Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury, a post he surrendered when he signed up with Haaland's Guv campaign. 

The Haaland campaign has raised a hefty $3.7 million this year but since there are no details on the financial angle of Forrester's departure, let's take a look at the push and pull over how the candidate is being positioned. 

Haaland's play it safe strategy, dubbed "staying in the basement" by supporters of her rival Sam Bregman, has, according to one source, caused a "divide" in the campaign.   

The personnel shake-up comes after mediocre reviews of Haaland's first months on the trail, with criticism centering on the lack of substance in her messaging and the play it safe strategy that is backed up by her successful fund-raising. 

Haaland, coming off a stint as Sec. of Interior under President Biden, has seemed caught off guard by the critics and may be looking to beef up her image and be more forthright on policy. 

But some of her advisors, fearful that Haaland, who had trouble as a cabinet secretary articulating department policy, could make a major blunder that could give Bregman and her other foe, Ken Miyagishima, an opening. 

OUT OF THE BASEMENT 

Haaland does "come out of the basement" but when she does she is very careful climbing the steps. Her long-standing slogan of being "fierce" can seem out of context.

The subjects she has chosen to sparsely address include water, veterans and Trump's proposed budget cuts, issues that provoke little debate in the party.  

A speech she gave on economic policy was exceptionally light on detail prompting push back that she is not identifying with the major issues confronting everyday New Mexicans such as the rising cost of living, affordable housing, excessive crime, poor education, last in the nation child-well being and other complex policy matters.

Political pros say part of the problem stems from Haaland's early launch, coming as it did well over a year before the June '26 primary and as Sen. Martin Heinrich talked of joining the race which seemed to force her hand. Candidates usually begin announcing their intentions about now--a year or so before the primary. 

Some criticism of Haaland may be overstated and she remains the clear font-runner to secure the nomination. Most candidates in the early going shy away from  a position that could cost them votes. But the danger for Haaland is compounded by her uber-progressive politics while on Capitol Hill. 

The Dems are in the process of shedding much of their "woke" agenda as they get crushed by Trump. Haaland will need to pivot to a more moderate stance. That is a path filled with craters that both her Dem and GOP opponents will pounce on no matter how subtly she handles the maneuver. 

Suffice it to say the departure of her first campaign manager, while not an event that will garner notice outside of political circles, does signal that the house of Haaland still has work to do in putting down a firm foundation. 

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Morales

Lieutenant Governors are the step children of La Politica. None of them in the modern era has gone on to become Governor and so it is for current Lt. Gov. Howie Morales. 

He says he rejected a gubernatorial run--a run we doubt he ever seriously considered--and will apparently concentrate on nailing down the lucrative and vacant position of president of Western New Mexico University in his hometown of Silver City. His starting salary there could be in the $300,000 range).

The job would be a soft landing for the 52 year old former state senator and professional educator--and he would join former Attorney General Hector Balderas in that club. 

Balderas followed his two term stint as AG not by running for Guv but becoming the well-compensated ($232,500 a year) president of Northern New Mexico Community College. 

Balderas and Morales raised hopes that one of them would be the first native born Hispanic male  to take the office since Toney Anaya served one unpopular term from 1983 to '87. 

(Gov. Martinez was born in El Paso. Gov. Richardson, who was half-Hispanic, was born in California. MLG is also half-Hispanic although she is a native.) 

Morales and Balderas are affable personalities but neither had the political punch to advance to the governorship. Balderas toyed with the notion in 2018 but melted when MLG and company put the pressure on. 

Still, both come from humble backgrounds and their success is not shabby.  

Morales gets praise for competently presiding over the state senate, one of the few constitutional duties of the office, but he never waded deeply into any of Santa Fe's power centers. Even if he wanted to, MLG was not of a mind to let him spread his wings. 

While the # 2 under MLG bows to political reality, former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, who served eight years under Martinez, is said by insiders to be contemplating a bid for the top job. 

He is a native Hispanic male but he is also a Republican. That's not necessarily a deadly combination but neither is it an elixir to break the long exile of our state's second bananas from the Governor's office 

VIRGIN'S PROBLEM

Sir Richard Branson

Reader Alan Schwarz writes of our Monday blog on the ongoing financial woes of Virgin Galactic, the main tenant of the NM Spaceport:  

The problem down in T or C is two problems, Virgin Galactic and Spaceport America. 

Sir Richard Branson, owner of Virgin, made his money selling about a billion dollars of VG stock over the years. The fact that many of his business ventures have been shut down shows he knows when to hold um and, most importantly, when to fold. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for our esteemed Legislature that continues to advance millions for the Spaceport every budget cycle. 

Note that the Spaceport's premiere event, the student rocket competition, which accounts for the majority of onsite visitors each year, relocated to Midland Texas. 

As for quotes, here is one of my favorites from Californian Willie Brown, 

“In the world of civic projects, the first budget is really just a down payment. If people knew the real cost from the start, nothing would ever be approved. The idea is to get going. Start digging a hole and make it so big, there’s no alternative to coming up with the money to fill it in.” 

We still see hope for the Spaceport but as Schwarz notes something is going to have to fill the hole, if Virgin goes belly-up there. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

The race to muster the financial resources to effectively compete with ABQ Mayor Tim Keller in the November 4 election is now in the panic stage.

The challengers in the 11 person field seeking to qualify for public financing have dropped their bids for the $756,000 and are now going hat in hand seeking private contributions while Keller closes in on getting that generous pot of taxpayer cash. 

The latest and last to give up are Dem City Councilor Louie Sanchez and former Republican BernCo Sheriff Darren white.

Only Keller is set to collect the required 3,870 individual $5 donations needed to qualify for $756,000 in taxpayer funds to run his campaign for a third consecutive term. He has 80 percent of them and enough time to finish the job. 

It's hard to overstate how huge a development this is in the 2025 chase for Mayor. 

The opposition candidates have a mountain to climb to raise at least $500,000 each that political consultants say is the minimum necessary to effectively compete with the mayor. 

The candidates are also required to collect 3,000 petition signatures from registered voters to appear on the November 4 ballot.

Keller, Alex Uballez and Daniel Chavez have all qualified. 

White, Sanchez and Eddie Varela appeared poised to make it. Mayling Armijo has 53 percent of the signatures needed as the June 21 deadline approaches. 

SOMBER DEVELOPMENT

Darren White

Despite as many as six other choices, if the money chase continues to stagnate observers believe there is a chance that Keller could actually capture 50 percent of the vote and avoid a runoff election that would be required between the top two finishers if no one captures a majority. 

That is a very high bar but now at least visible after the public financing debacle that struck the alternative campaigns.  

Veteran Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta called the failure of any Keller challenger to get the big pot of public money "a somber development for his opponents." 

All eyes are now on parking tycoon Daniel Chavez who has already donated $100,000 of his personal money to finance the collection of the ballot signatures. Will he reach again for his checkbook? 

If Chavez wants to play some more he may have to. 

He is running as an independent but has hired a Republican consulting firm. It won't be easy to attract private cash in a race that Keller is now seen as dominating. The pressure is on political unknown Chavez to make a game of it and tap his own account. 

White is dealing with a very divided Republican party that will make his raising of private money a heavy lift. 

SENIOR ANALYSIS 

One of our Senior Alligators (a very reliable and experienced source of many years for the newbies out there) says of Keller's standing.

The election is now close to being his to lose. Or maybe already is. Uballez will have to hit him hard from the left to shake Keller's progressive base. Chavez or Mayling Armijo going aggressively after the center and right would help. White getting the money to be relevant is another factor. The chances of all this happening don't seem high. 

In 2021 Keller qualified for public financing and his two opponents did not but one of them, Sheriff Manny Gonzales, was able to raise more private money than the public amount being awarded. Gonzales still lost in a landslide in the three way race. 

This year's campaign began with Keller's opponents convinced that the high crime and ongoing homeless problem in the city would spell his doom. Now his opponents are looking at their own doomsday if this exhausted mayoral field can't regroup and make a fight of it.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Many New Mexicans long ago wrote off the chances of tourists being launced into space on Virgin Galactic rockets from the NM Spaceport near T or C. After all it's been nearly 20 years since the plan was announced by Virgin's billionaire owner Sir Richard Branson and then Gov. Bill Richardson.

So, while hope still springs eternal in a few quarters, the company's cash is making the firmest forecast. As we hear in this update from longtime Spaceport watcher Brent Eastwood in DC there could be cloudy days to come: 

Joe: Virgin Galactic's latest earnings are not good. The company had only $500,000 in revenue in the first quarter. They lost $84 million--a little better than the $102 million they lost in Q1 2024. These guys are losing money faster than a rapper at a strip club. 

They say they are working on the new spacecraft that will launch the tourists and that there will be regular flights in the fall of 2026. Here is the problem. Since they are losing on average about $100 million a quarter and they need another six quarters before there are regular flights, they need around $600 million in reserves. 

They have $567 million in cash left as of March 31. Virgin Galactic could run out of money before the space tourists can fly on a regular basis and that's assuming no delays with the new spacecraft. Sir Richard would need to put in more funds which he says he won't do. So here we are. 

Virgin Galactic's share price was at $3.32 a share Friday, with the market valuing the company at $134 million. 

Barron's reports:

The company’s goal is to essentially build a “spaceline” business—think airline, but for space—with multiple Delta class ships operating at multiple spaceports around the world. It’s a bold vision that has been difficult to achieve. Sales in 2025 are expected to be less than $2 million. In 2019, when the company became publicly traded Virgin Galactic projected 2022 sales of about $400 million. Revenue came in just over $2 million that year.    

BROADBAND UPDATE

Look beyond the state's borders and the program to provide broadband internet to deprived rural areas keeps looking worse. 

The state is still refusing to start distributing the service via available satellite links and clinging fast to expensive high speed fiber--no matter how long it takes. 

This looks nearly ludicrous in the face of a barrage of news, including a report that the kids in rural India needing broadband could very well get it before our kids do. Why? Because they are going with Starlink service:

Elon Musk’s Starlink Inc. has got regulatory approval in India, paving the way for rolling out its satellite internet services in the world’s most-populous country. Starlink has secured the license from India’s telecom ministry, according to a government official, who spoke to reporters in New Delhi, asking not to be named as the information is not public yet.

And there's this:

A growing number of states are rolling out subsidies for satellite connectivity in rural areas, a change that could be a boon to Elon Musk’s Starlink and another nascent service from Amazon. From Maine to Nevada, states are starting to help some of the 24 million Americans who lack reliable broadband pay for satellite internet, rather than focusing such aid primarily on fiber connectivity as they have in the past. 

We haven't quoted the great former NM territorial Gov. Lew Wallace lately, but it's high time:

Every calculation based on experience elsewhere fails in New Mexico.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Time again for another edition of the always popular Reader Vox Populi. 

And we're off. . .

Our Thursday May 29 report exploring homelessness in ABQ drew a number of insightful responses. Former Dem state Senator Jerry Oritz y Pino writes: 

Joe, you are pinpointing one of the real causes for the dilemma of homelessness, the growing wealth disparity in the country as a whole. It has little to do with any local Mayor or City Council's ability to reduce the cost of housing or to increase the earning power of most families. We are reaping the result of national policies that have incentivized billionaires and discouraged working people. 

Trump's "big, beautiful bill" will drastically reduce Medicaid funds for working age adults—precisely the funding source that New Mexico and other states have made use of to pay for the treatment, rehabilitation, and supportive services needed by mentally ill and drug and alcohol addicted persons if they will ever leave the streets. Adding in the "work requirement" before someone qualifies for Medicaid is a cruel joke or hoax. Which employer in their right mind would ever hire actively psychotic or addicted people before they get treatment? 

Trish Livingston writes:

Joe, I really enjoy your blog each morning and learn quite a lot! Finding solutions for homelessness is quite a challenge but not insurmountable. New Mexico politicians need to look outside their box and get creative by looking at models around the world that work. Houston has reduced homelessness by more than 60 percent by bringing together local government, nonprofits and faith-based groups under one clear goal - get people housed quickly and permanently. They use a "Housing First" approach, which means no hoops to jump through—just stable housing first, then support with things like jobs, addiction, or mental health. It’s been incredibly effective. To me, that’s the kind of model that deserves more attention—practical, compassionate, and results-driven. It shows we can make real progress when we focus on what actually works. Hopefully your words can be the impetus for our state leaders to look into some of these solutions for our state. 

Reader Jim McClure writes:

Low-cost housing won’t eliminate the homeless crisis but it’s an important part of the solution. Mayor Keller deserves credit for converting old motels and encouraging casitas, but Santa Fe bureaucrats are moving in the opposite direction by adding environmental regulations that increase the cost of new homes. Rent controls and breathtakingly expensive public-housing projects aren’t much help. Government can encourage the building of more starter homes by modifying zoning regulations, streamlining permitting and removing restrictions on the use and financing of manufactured homes. The Navajo Nation is moving in this direction with a plan for manufactured homes. 

Homeowners get tax breaks but renters get squat. How about a refundable tax break for renters that could be set aside for a down payment? If politicians are serious about helping their constituents become homeowners, there’s a lot they can do. 

MAYORAL MONEY 

Joe Monahan

The email also came in (newsguy@yahoo.com) as we ramped up our coverage of the ABQ mayoral candidates seeking public financing for their campaigns. . .  

An anonymous reader reacts to that tongue-lashing former Dem Lt. Governor Diane Denish gave to mayoral hopeful Alex Uballez after he complained that qualifying for public financing is too difficult and he's switched to private fund-raising:

Joe, thank you for sharing Diane Denish’s submission. I think it does nothing but prove Mr. Uballez’s point. Well, there it is – she’s in a club where she got her ”public voice” card stamped a long, long time ago and Keller just renewed it for 2025. A few more blog submissions and she gets a free sub sandwich. 

What is she saying? - don’t you dare run for office until you bend the knee and kiss the ring of the political class because before you try to actually help the people, you have to kiss their butts?  Thanks for proving the point by running an opinion of someone that hasn’t been viable in a decade and a half but still has her current NM La Politica membership card so her "public voice" should be heard. 

Reader Barry Simon writes of the proposal we floated here Wednesday for modest reform of the current public financing system:

I would add to the suggested changes for public financing that a citizen can contribute $5 to more than one candidate.  

3,780 individual $5 donations from registered voters are necessary to qualify for $756,000 in public financing for the mayor's race.

(City Clerk Ethan Watson clarified after this report that voters can make the $5 contributions to more than one candidate.) 

We began our coverage of ABQ mayoral races with the very first one in 1974 for KUNM radio. There were over 30 candidates on the ballot! It was in the middle of the Watergate scandal when public financing campaigns first got a serious look. And over fifty years later, here we are today. . .

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Griego (left) with Keller (right) 2008

The belly-aching over ABQ's public financing system for mayoral candidates has reached maximum volume with multiple candidates in this year's mayoral derby complaining that the requirements to qualify for taxpayer money are too difficult. 

Former Lt. Gov. Diane Denish was quoted here Monday criticizing candidate Alex Uballez for lamenting his unsuccessful effort to obtain public funds. Uballez was coming up far short of the needed $5 individual donations from registered city voters before he gave up and switched to private fund-raising. 

But Eric Griego, a progressive Dem former city councilor who served from 2001-2005 and is the godfather of today's public financing law, tells us it is time for "reasonable reforms."

Joe -My intention when I started working with community members in 2005 on Albuquerque’s Open and Ethical Elections system was to make it so more people could run successfully for local office. Short of a constitutional amendment we can’t do much to end unlimited outside spending by PACs, thanks to the Supreme Court's 2010 Citizens United decision. 

However, we can and should improve the current public financing system to make it more feasible for all serious candidates. Currently, it is difficult for anyone other than incumbents and career politicians with strong partisan ties to qualify. 

In the 2025 mayor’s race, if the current trend continues, only one candidate – the incumbent – will likely qualify for the more than $750,000 provided. . .If we want to keep public financing. . .we must address this barrier as well as make other reasonable reforms. . .

First, the threshold for qualifying for public financing in mayoral races needs to be cut in half from the current roughly 3,850  $5 contributions to 2,000.

Second, the time period for collecting qualifying contributions needs to be extended from the current 64 days to at least 90 days. 

Third, oversight and penalties for coordination with Measure Finance Committees needs to be improved. Former campaign staff or family members of candidates should not be allowed to run or fund these supposedly independent PACs. 

Until we find a solution to the corrosive effects of big money in elections at all levels, we need to make alternatives like the Albuquerque public financing system viable alternatives to changing who runs, who they answer to and where their money comes from. It is a relatively small step to improving our local democracy, but it matters.

Observers point out there is a fine line  to draw with any changes. Lower the bar too much and the cost to taxpayers could easily soar to $10 million or more each election as multiple mayor candidates qualify. 

HOW ABOUT THIS? 

Here's a plan we've been mulling over. 

How about adjusting the amount of public money candidates could qualify for? Keep the current requirement of 3,780 individual $5 donations from registered city voters, but adjust it so a candidate could collect less than the full $756,000 in funding. 

For example, a candidate who obtained 1,500 of the donations could quality for $150,000 and if they chose, stop right there.

A contender who submitted 2,000 donations would qualify for $200,000-- and could call it a day. 

And so on up the ladder with more more funding for more signatures. But only a candidate who managed to get all 3,780 donations would be awarded the full $756,000. 

This would give the incumbent mayor less of an advantage but also keep the costs manageable. We'd like to see a hearty debate.

THE GRIEGO FILE

Griego, 59, left his Council seat in 2005 to challenge Mayor Marty Chavez along with two other hopefuls. There was no public financing option in that race. Chavez was elected to his second consecutive term with 47% of the vote, with Griego coming in second with 26%. Chavez served a total of three terms. Griego later went on to serve a term in the state senate from 2009-13. 

Here's our Election Night blog from October 5, 2005. We have to say that rereading it 20 years later, it's pretty electric. (I'm sure Marty would agree.) Our lead:

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez ceded no territory to his overwhelmed foes last night as he marched virtually unopposed through the city and laid claim to a historic third, four year term. It was a victory unprecedented in its scope, featuring geographic and demographic dominance that politicians dream of but rarely realize. Chavez also ended a 30 year curse and became the first mayor to win two terms in a row. The only opposition was a record low turnout that thwarted the 53 year old city native's drive for an unquestionable mandate.

Yeah, we always liked lighting the night up. . .

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.

Mayor Hull

Is Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull getting weak in the knees over his candidacy for the '26 GOP gubernatorial nomination? 

The middle of the road Republican has sent out an enigmatic news release saying that he delayed his planned June 2 formal announcement. 

That could set the stage for his withdrawal from the race, if things don't start looking up. 

From the release:

Hull. . .will continue engaging with voters and community leaders. . .ahead of an anticipated formal campaign launch. Originally eyeing June 2 the campaign is choosing to extend its listening tour to ensure that our platform reflects the real concerns, hopes, and priorities of New Mexicans. . . Rather than focusing on political timelines or headlines, Hull is focused on building a winning coalition and a policy-driven campaign. . .

Hull, the only announced GOP Guv hopeful, has raised about $200,000 in the early going. He is largely unknown outside the ABQ metro. 

The mayor is under the gun when it comes to his political future. He still has the option of seeking a fourth term in 2026 but that window will soon begin closing so decision time looms. He has been a popular and effective mayor and his re-election prospects would appear solid. 

Also haunting Hull is the expected candidacy of former Lt. Governor John Sanchez. 

In his release Hull appeared to take indirect swipes at Sanchez who served two terms under divisive GOP Governor Susana Martinez:

(Voters have) seen what happens when ego and division rule the Roundhouse. We’re building a campaign that listens, respects individual community needs, and has a winning vision for New Mexico’s future. The campaign remains in a strategic growth phase, focused on building the infrastructure, fundraising base, and grassroots team necessary to win both the primary and general election. 

RONCHETTI RESURFACES 

Mark Ronchetti

While Hull struggles to find his footing, Republican Mark Ronchetti, the 2022 GOP Guv nominee who lost to MLG, says he is not ruling out another run in the June '26 primary. A longtime TV weatherman, Ronchetti is now a podcaster. 

Ronchetti and the GOP are closely monitoring the November ABQ mayoral election for any signs of weakening in the large Democratic and progressive base in the city that might give them a better shot at retaking the Governor's office.

Meanwhile Sanchez has been as quiet as can be about a possible run but his name is being widely circulated and former GOP Chairman Ryan Cangiolosi has told associates that he believes Sanchez is coming in. But much uncertainty remains about the GOP primary field and Hull's news release only adds to that.  

MAYOR CHASE

Diane Denish

Democratic party warhorse Diane Denish is a former two term lieutenant governor, former party chair and the 2010 Dem Guv nominee. The veteran politico says she doesn't have much patience for political newcomer and Dem ABQ mayoral candidate Alex Uballez who has complained about the difficulty of qualifying for $756,000 in public campaign funds. Denish writes on the socials:

It's really strange to hear Uballez complain about public financing and how hard it is to get enough $5 contributions and somehow suggesting that because Keller has built name ID, a volunteer infrastructure and strong support, it's not fair to him. Is he that naive? If you think qualifying for public financing is hard, try being Mayor. And, yes Alex, you are a politician. You are running for office. Welcome to the world where you have to work hard to get public finance.

Uballez withdrew his bid to qualify for public financing asserting the system now favors "entrenched" politicians. He will now privately finance. He comes with this op-ed on his candidacy. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Keller and Uballez

The financial noose is tightening on the ABQ mayoral challengers, giving Mayor Tim Keller more breathing room as he seeks an unprecedented third consecutive term. 

The hopefuls seeking to qualify for $756,000 in public financing for the November 3 election are falling fast and it is now possible that Keller will be the only one awarded that ample pot of money and dramatically change the course of this election. 

Former US Attorney Alex Uballez is the latest to throw in the proverbial towel, complaining that the requirement that candidates collect 3,780 in $5 donations from registered city voters is unfair:

The people of Albuquerque deserve a better choice than candidates who can buy their way onto the ballot or use entrenched political power to get there. I still believe in public financing. I think how it’s currently structured, and maybe the goals you have to attain, reward those with political connections and close the door on political newcomers like myself.

Three lower tier candidates previously gave up their public money race and also do not appear positioned to collect the petition signatures also necessary to make the ballot.  

Uballez says he has now submitted the required 3,000 petition signatures to qualify for the ballot.  

The Uballez failure is particularly important because he has been carrying the banner for progressives dissatisfied with Keller and who have long been a vital part of the mayor's political base.  

Conservative Democratic Councilor Louie Sanchez, also struggling, says he is about to drop his public financing effort. Republican Darren White is hanging by a thread when it comes to qualifying.

NOT FOR AMATEURS

Becoming eligible for the public cash is not for amateurs and Keller--for the third time--is putting together the organization to get the job done. After Uballez's blast over the process and the decision of the others to give up, he accused the complainers of crying in their beer:

Complaining that public financing doesn’t work is like blaming the ref because you can’t hit your free throws — it’s not the system’s fault you’re falling short. The real issue isn’t the rules; it’s a lack of grassroots support, campaign credibility, and the organizational strength to lead.

The rub for those now choosing to pursue private donations is getting anywhere near the $756K that Keller is on his way to pocketing. 

There is still the possibility that outside PACs--known by the city as Measure Finance Committees--could form to support the Keller opponents. They have no spending limits. 

One of those committees has already formed for Keller. When what it collects is included in the spending for his candidacy, he could reach over $1 million. 

Those outside committees are prohibited from coordinating with the campaigns of the candidates they are supporting so their advertising is often not seen as effective as the candidate's.

Will progressive PACs try to rally for Uballez? It will be watched for but his first steps as a political toddler have not been inspiring for those running them.  

ACE IN THE HOLE 

The other possible ace in the hole for the disgruntled non-qualifiers is personal money.

That's where parking lot tycoon Daniel Chavez comes into play. He has already put up $100,000 that aided him in gathering enough petition signatures to make the ballot. He appears to be the only hopeful in the 11 person field with the resources to give Keller a run for his money.

LOWER THE BAR? 

Qualifying for public financing is meant to be difficult but Keller did so even in 2017 when he was not the incumbent. It demands organization, political know-how and roots in the community.

Whether it needs to be made easier is for the electorate to decide but they've rejected reforms to lower the bar. 

Should it be easier?

Look at the total contributions to the candidates failing to qualify. Most could not even meet the needed threshold if it were cut in half. Uballez collected only 21 percent of the requirement before calling it a day.

This is not charity. It's public money that has to be earned or taxpayers would be on the hook to fund half-serious candidates on ego trips to the tune of millions of dollars. 

THE REAL ISSUE 

The issue isn't the public financing--as much as Keller foes would like it to be. The issue is why voters are not rushing to Keller's opponents to help take him out. 

The incumbent's polling numbers show voter fatigue and Uballez and company are bellowing that the city is in a state of chaos amid out of control crime and homelessness. Yet, they can't excite the folks listening from the bleacher seats to reach into their wallets for a five-spot.

So the initial foray into Keller territory has been met with stiff resistance. The challenging candidates will have another go of it in public forums, campaign ads, fund-raising and social media. For now the message from voters is clear. They want better ideas and better campaigns.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Some of the ABQ mayoral hopefuls seem to lack perspective about the amount of money being spent on homelessness. It's not only here that city budgets to address the crisis have soared. Take Tucson, a city similar in size to ABQ: 

(Pima) county reports spending between $50 million and $70 million a year on homelessness. This money comes through federal, state, local, and philanthropic sources, according to a 2023 report from the Tucson Pima Collaboration to End Homelessness. But Pima County estimates that to reach a “functional zero” homeless population, it would cost between $135.8 million and $158.5 million a year. In 2023, the county reported its homeless population at 2,209, a 1% decrease from 2022 but a 60% increase since 2018. 

That $70 million a year spent on homelessness in Pima County is a bit lower than what the city of ABQ has been budgeting but that spending includes over $100 million to purchase and renovate the Gateway Center for the homeless, a project whose long-term efficacy has yet to be determined 

ABQ also leans on the federal and state governments to help with the substantial annual costs. 

Here's more from Austin:

Austin’s Homeless Strategy Office has proposed more than $100 million in funding for Fiscal Year 2026  to maintain its programs and enhance services. The recommendations were discussed during a recent joint meeting with the city council. David Gray, the director of the city’s Homeless Strategy Office, said there are approximately 6,500 people currently living on the streets.

HOW MANY HOMELESS?

The spending critics don't seem to understand the immense housing crisis in the nation (and world) today. 

This week the state Department of Health released numbers that show a severe undercount in the official number of homeless in the state: 

Department epidemiologists. . .identified 30,882 homeless individuals seeking care. . .The annual number rose from 7,948 in 2019 to 9,168 in 2023, with the highest number in 2022 at more than 10,000 individual patients believed to be homeless. This compares with 3,842 homeless people documented in the state’s “point-in-time count” in 2023 — suggesting the population could be two to four times higher than previously documented.

In Albuquerque the median household income is $65,604, far lower than the income needed for the median priced home of $345,000. To afford that residents need a two income household, a larger down payment or look for lower-priced homes. Neighborhoods in the South Valley have lower prices, reducing the income needed to $60,000–$80,000.

More:

The surge in U.S. home prices has been nothing short of alarming. Over the past five years, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index has climbed by over 50%. More recently, the leading measure of U.S. home prices reported a 3.9% annual return for December 2024. . .The gap in the housing market is significant. A recent report by Realtor.com estimated the U.S. housing shortage to be 3.8 million homes as of 2024.

We've previously reported that the cost of building a subsidized apartment building can easily reach $100,000 or more per unit. Government can spend $10 million and barely see the needle move. 

A TIGHTROPE WALK 

Forcibly removing people from the streets and into mental hospitals or drug treatment is not going to solve the fundamental problem.

Removal is often necessary for public safety and convenience and cities are getting more aggressive in that regard--as they should. But only when society confronts the immense inequality exemplified by a new billionaire class contrasted with a growing lower class is homelessness going to wane. That's why the dilemma has been resistant to solutions for years and during both Democratic and Republican administrations in Washington and ABQ.

Confronting inequity (home availability and prices) in capitalism has always been a tightrope walk. But FDR did it during the Great Depression. Absent a similar effort today ABQ, Austin and other major cities are obligated to spend to manage a homeless plight whose fundamental causes remain politically untouchable.

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Haaland & Bregman

Progressive Democrats went ballistic over Sam Bregman's April fundraiser in Midland, TX sponsored by oil and gas interests and where "Campaign for Change" tickets were peddled for $12,400 a pop. 

The hits were an early sign of the progressive dislike for the Bernalillo county district attorney who is vying for the '26 gubernatorial nomination against Deb Haaland, a fave of the left.

Critical comments about the fundraiser included:

Bregman is having a fundraising event with oil and gas in Texas. Let that sink in. . .He has a plan "to support and strengthen" that industry. Might as well say "drill, baby drill." 

And this:

He's already committed to prostituting New Mexico to the oil and gas industry.

But attacking candidates over fundraising comes with the danger of slipping into hypocrisy. For example. . . 

While Bregman is attacked over his oil and gas fundraiser by climate change advocates and while the state deals with air pollution and water contamination from the industry, what about Haaland's acceptance of big liquor money?

Her latest finance report shows donations of $22,000 from Arizona Wine and Spirits. This as New Mexico continues to battle one of the highest rates of alcoholism in the nation and a staggering death rate caused by booze.

It's so bad that measures to increase the tax on alcohol have advanced further in recent legislative sessions than the past. This as the industry comes under increased scrutiny. New studies tie alcohol use even more directly to causing cancer.

And then there's the matter of a candidate who would be the first Native American governor in state history taking money from an industry that feeds the epidemic of alcoholism that has afflicted the Navajo Nation and other Indian communities for generations.

So Bregman is "selling out" to oil and gas and Haaland to the alcohol purveyors. When it comes to campaign cash neither candidate is holier-than-thou. 

AND. . . 

Miyagishima (Las Cruces Bulletin)

Just as we wrapped that up, former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima was making his Dem Guv candidacy official and get this. He said he won't accept any donations from trial attorneys because of how medical malpractice reform has stalled out in Santa Fe:

I will never take money from a trial lawyer. I challenge Sam and Deb not to take any money from trial lawyers.

Hear that, lawyer Sam? Never mind the trial lawyers, drop the oil boys and lawyer Deb just say no to big booze. Then both of you can tell Ken it's his turn.  

Video of Miyagishima's announcement is here.

MORE MONEY 

Several readers asked if Bregman, who reported receiving $1 million in total donations recently, had received any of that funding from himself or his family. His campaign responded that he had not donated any funds and that "no family money at all" was contributed. Haaland has reported raising $3.7 million.

KELLER AND UBALLEZ

In the race for ABQ mayor, we get this commentary from reader Michael Garcia:

Tim Keller is running for an unprecedented third term as Albuquerque mayor. Third terms for members of the executive branch – whether for president, governor or mayor are bad for accountability and democracy. It’s an especially tall order for someone who has presided over the crime and homeless mayhem that has characterized our city the last few years.  

Uballez

I am also troubled by what I have heard about efforts by Keller and his operatives to kneecap former U.S. Attorney Alex Uballez’s campaign. From what I have heard Keller’s team coerced Uballez’s previous campaign manager (who is involved in the Haaland campaign for governor) into quitting. That left Uballez to start over and get far behind in seeking public financing. If true, that’s undemocratic and disappointing for someone who claims to be a fan of fair elections and democracy.

I’m not sure who I am voting for yet, but I am really turned off by the thuggish tactics Keller has engaged in. Keller claims to be fighting Trump, but by seeking a third term like Trump and intimidating Democrats like Trump, he is taking a page out of the Trump playbook. That should be troubling to anyone concerned about the direction our federal government is headed under Trump.

On May 8 we reported:

Former US Attorney Alex Uballez signed Roadrunner Strategies consultants Dylan McArthur and Brandon Padilla to run his campaign, but in a sudden switch they are already gone. Roadrunner says the firm was not fired but left because there was an unspecified "potential conflict of interest" and that they wish Uballez "all the best."

Speaking of consultants. . The American Association of Political Consultants has named New Mexico consultant Brad Elkins “Democratic Most Valuable Player" for managing Senator Heinrich's '24 re-election campaign and that of California Senator Adam Schiff as well as his work with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). 

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Daniel Chavez

Daniel Chavez is the first of 11 ABQ mayoral hopefuls to qualify for the November 3 ballot by submitting 3,424 valid signatures of registered city voters to the City Clerk, surpassing the 3,000 required and handily beating a June 21 deadline.

It could be said the political newcomer bought his way on the ballot by donating $100,000 in personal funds to launch a petition drive that got the job done. 

Still, the accomplishment shows a can do spirit that drew the attention of his rivals who are still collecting qualifying signatures. 

Several of those rivals are also seeking to qualify for $756,000 in public campaign funds by gathering $5 donations from 3,780 voters along with those 3,000 signatures. So far Mayor Tim Keller is the only candidate clearly positioned to qualify for the public money, with Republican Darren White in second.

Chavez, 55, will privately finance his campaign. He said of his first place showing in gathering qualifying signatures:

I'm feeling great. That was our goal, and we did it. When I announced my candidacy, we really weren't getting very much attention. So, I figured if we could really work hard with volunteers and friends to get enough signatures to get on the ballot before Tim, we might get noticed. And we were able to do it. 

Chavez, whose family made a fortune managing parking lots here and nationally, is the president of Parking Company of America with offices downtown. 

(More on Chavez's background and his native New Mexican family that started the successful firm in 1963 is here.)

It will take much more cash for Chavez to effectively compete and the question dangling is how much more of his personal funds will he commit. 

Getting substantial outside donations might be a longshot. He is running as a conservative independent with no previous political base and little public profile. 

Chavez's campaign is being aided by the well-known GOP consulting group Axiom Strategies and their Texas state director Lyndsey Blagrave.  

HEAVY AND LIGHT

APD Chief Medina & Keller

While he is heavy on cash, Chavez's initial platform is lightweight. On the most pressing issue--crime--he says:

Crime is out of control, and it’s killing our city. We can’t fix anything until people feel safe. . .As Mayor, I’ll fully support the Albuquerque Police Department, the State Police, and the Bernalillo County Sheriff’s Department to bring order back to our communities. That means resources, coordination, and backing the badge — not second-guessing the people trying to protect us. We’ve studied the problem long enough. Now, we need leadership with the backbone to act.  

While "backing the badge" may be what some voters need to hear, Chavez is going to have to come with more nuance and complexity to convince a wider swath of the electorate that he has the chops to better manage the long-troubled APD and make a bigger dent in crime.

On homelessness he could also be said to be taking the easy street:

Homelessness in Albuquerque has spiraled into a crisis, and the current leadership has looked the other way. We can’t ignore it, and we can’t let it take over our city. As Mayor, I’ll push for real solutions: job opportunities, treatment programs, and pathways off the street. But compassion doesn’t mean letting tents take over our sidewalks. We’ll help the people who want help, and we’ll restore order for everyone else. It’s time to fix the problem and clean up the streets for good. 

But the current administration has done anything but "look the other way" and has enacted a wide range of spending programs to arrest homelessness, programs that demand scrutiny and critical thinking. Chavez doesn't go there but he does have five months to dig deeper. 

Politically, the emergence of Chavez presents a challenge to the only Republican in the field--Darren White--as well as conservative Democrats Louie Sanchez and Mayling Armijo. 

The three of them and Chavez are going to be singing the same tune as they gang up on Mayor Keller--who is seeking a third consecutive term--and potentially splitting the anti-Keller vote. 

No matter. One of them appears destined to finish in the top two and join Keller in a run-off election if no candidate captures 50 percent of the vote in the first round in November. 

Chavez not only surprised the field with his petition push but he crushed the hopes of progressive Dem candidate Alex Uballez from making an early splash and who is perhaps best equipped to damage fellow progressive Keller. 

The former US attorney boasted early in the campaign that he was on track to get the 3,000 petition signatures faster than Keller and the others. But his campaign has faltered as he lags Keller in both petition signatures and more crucially in the race to qualify for public financing. The Uballez campaign has been afflicted with management turnover. 

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Before we break for the holiday, a couple of keen reader insights.

Former ABQ Dem state Senator Dede Feldman still pays close attention to the Roundhouse and writes frequently of the latest action. She comes with this appraisal of the 2025 session: 

The best part of the session was the speed at which both the House and Senate created a plan to reconfigure our failing behavioral health system to organize services for people struggling with addiction and mental health. 

The package also included several crime bills. The bipartisan measures came after last year’s catastrophic special session on crime and were passed by mid-session. This is the way it’s supposed to work. 

A constitutional amendment to end the “Pocket Veto” will be on the ballot in 2026. This time the Governor rejected 17 items passed by the legislature by simply failing to sign them without explanation. Under the proposed amendment, an unsigned bill would become law and the governor would be required to give reasons for all vetoes. 

For the third year in a row, taxes on alcohol escaped a long-overdue hike. HB 417 was turned down in the House Taxation Committee. Then, an overall tax package, which contained an alcohol tax increase, was vetoed by the Governor. 

The Governor vetoed $80 million appropriated to build affordable housing in Bernalillo County. The unified city-county plan depended on this funding, particularly in the wake of expensive cuts from Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The veto will have drastic implications, just as the city is beginning to make progress on the issue. 

CYFD continues to be a big problem for NM’s kids, and the Governor is resisting help and oversight from the legislature and now the Attorney General. She vetoed the funding and other measures for CYFD oversight. 

My biggest disappointment was the veto of the lobbyist disclosure bill. Lobbyists outnumber legislators in Santa Fe by as many as 10 to 1. This year, they spent about half a million to wine and dine legislators, to what end…nobody knows. 

Feldman comes with this update:

#1 The Governor did not nix the $80 million in housing funds to come to Albuquerque and Bernalillo County outright. She used her line item veto power to move the badly needed funds away from the local governments (Las Cruces funding was in there too) into the Department of Workforce Solutions, an executive agency under her control. This is part of the dispute between the executive and the legislature, which comes in the wake of the legislature’s failure to let her create her own housing agency. 

#2 Subsequent reports from he Secretary of State show that lobbyists spent almost $1 million to wine and dine legislator during the 2025 session, not the mere half a million based on earlier reports.   

SATELLITE RESCUE

Our blog last Thursday on getting rural New Mexico wired for high speed internet via satellite brought this from reader Dan Warren in Truth or Consequences:

Recently my friend of over 50 years had a stroke. She is 69. I had gone to her place, knocked on the door and there was no answer. I thought she went shopping. As I was turning away, I saw her silhouette pass by inside. She could not talk, but she could walk. She was unable to unlock the door. I was able to get in touch with central dispatch using WiFi calling on Starlink and they sent an ambulance. Fortunately, she was able to get a window open for me to get inside. The EMTs called for a helicopter because it was a stroke and the T or C Hospital is not equipped for stroke victims. She went to El Paso. 

It took hours to track her down. Try to find your loved one in a big city with many hospitals without a decent phone connection. Only because we have Starlink was I able to provide critical medical history quickly and clearly to the hospital staff. It took 3 1/2 hours from the time I called for help until she got to the hospital. Think about how much longer it could have been with no phone service. She has been recovering remarkably well and was moved out of acute care to rehab.

So the next time someone tells me to drop Starlink as a political protest, I will have a good reason why doing so would be stupid.  

Thanks, Dan. That's a good look at the communications issues impacting many rural areas and the technology readily available to help--if only the state can shake its obsession for high speed fiber as the sole solution.

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For everyday New Mexicans watching paint dry may prove more exciting than the remainder of the year in the '26 gubernatorial race. 

That's because it will be all about the money which will makes voters' eyes glaze over but will be closely scrutinized by political junkies for signs of strength or weakness as well as for clues on how the candidates--one of whom will eventually be governor--manages their money. 

So before the glazing starts, let's get to it. . .

If the early spending from Dem hopeful Deb Haaland is indicative of how she would manage the state budget, she won't be a skinflint. 

Haaland reported in April already signing checks for $1.17 million on a campaign that she launched in mid-February. And expensive TV ads were not among the bills.

Most of the large outlay went to consultants who revel in what is now a nonstop political cycle where spending for the next election begins as soon as the last one ends. In fact, Haaland and other candidates now pay vast sums to groups and individuals who charge them for raising even more vast sums.

Haaland appeared forced into the race early to dissuade Senator Heinrich from getting in which started the money clock. The spending included a collection of videos and digital ads that will be forgotten faster than yesterday's newspaper (they still have those, don't they?).

Haaland now reports her total fund-raising has hit $3.7 million. She dearly hopes that she can bank most of that money for an eventual general election but there is a little problem. . .

Well, he's not little but Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman got Haaland's attention when he announced his Guv fund-raising hit the $1 million mark in the first five weeks of his campaign.

Bregman has always been a prodigious fund-raiser so his fast start out of the gate is no surprise to insiders. 

The problem for Haaland, the frontrunner for the nomination, is the more Bregman raises the more she has to spend or so those well-fed consultants will whisper in in her ear.

More Democrats are expected to join the party but they may be poverty stricken compared to the Sam and Deb show. 

Las Crucs Mayor Ken Miyagishima is expected to make his bid official in the next month. 

Lt. Governor Howie Morales is keeping his name circulating as a possible. But why? He seems to have the inside track for the presidency of Western NM University and if he gets it he won't have any money worries--as long as he doesn't use the Dr. Shepherd accounting method. 

DUKE'S DOUGH

Our report on possible GOP Guv candidate and marijuana magnate Duke Rodriguez got the anti-pot Republicans off the bench. Several of them pointed to Duke's $10,000 in donations to MLG's 2018 campaign as reason enough to disqualify him from the Republican nomination. MLG isn't the only Dem Rodriguez gave ample donations to. Details are on the SOS website.

Hmm. Republican Darren White, candidate for ABQ mayor and fellow marijuana merchant, also donated money to MLG's campaign. Wonder how Republicans will feel about that?

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