The pounding of the table can cease. Finally the state will have satellite broadband as an option for internet stranded households--not just expensive fiber optic lines that will take years to rescue them from the information desert. 

The good news comes because of the Trump administration edict that $42 billion in federal broadband funds including $675 million for New Mexico be reworked to include satellite and other nonfiber options:

The new criteria includes “technology neutrality,” with no preference for fiber, fixed wireless or low orbit satellite service, as long as it meets performance benchmarks, because “the full force of the competitive marketplace must be utilized,” the policy notice says. The new requirements allow broadband providers to set their own price for a “low-cost option” and no longer prioritize fiber technology. 

The state Broadband Office and certain legislators have been dragging their feet on satellite, arguing that fiber is faster and more reliable. There has also been intensive lobbying for fiber from the telco companies who are major campaign donors. 

The most obvious satellite hook-up is via Starlink owned by the polarizing Elon Musk. But in this case he has the technology that can rapidly deploy internet for some of the 40,000 underserved areas in the state, many of them remote households where kids can't get the education they need and deserve because of the lack of broadband. 

NEW BROADBAND BOSS 

Jeff Lopez

The previous director of the broadband office was bounced by MLG and replaced by Jeff Lopez who one might think is a fiber-only advocate because of his previous employment by Sen. Ben Ray Lujan, the Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Communications, Media, and Broadband. Lujan has shunned satellite (wrongly and quizzically) for years. But Lopez has a new boss now and suddenly sees the federal handwriting on the wall and the satellites in the sky: 

There's little joy here over passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and its substantial cuts to Medicaid and food stamps, but there is a long ignored lesson. New Mexico has far too many of its citizens reliant on the welfare state and vulnerable to the whims of Washington. 

Forty percent of the state's residents receive Medicaid--the highest per capita rate in the nation. Twenty-three percent receive food stamps. Any place else these are outlandish numbers but here they are expected, acknowledged and little debated. 

The punishing cuts planned for the programs will not take full effect until after next year's midterm elections so the Republicans can practice dodging the bullet. That also allows time for the state to absorb the shock. 

Significantly, massive surpluses in Santa Fe totaling billions are available to ease the pain of the reductions.

There is little discussion of the hard work and game changing approaches that would be needed to change the state economic dynamic and begin putting on line much better paying jobs and finally disrupt the addiction culture that keeps so many sidelined. But there are shreds of hope that the dependency on the social safety net may ease  in the long term.

Santa Fe District Judge Mathew Wilson has laid out a court-ordered plan for the administration to fulfill the promise of the 10 year old Yazzie-Martinez lawsuit that found the state is failing to provide adequate public education to a wide swath of students--mostly Native American and Hispanic--which is thwarting their social advancement and creates generational dependency on the welfare state. 

The other is the passage of a constitutional amendment to fully fund early childhood education for ages 0 to 5, critical years for brain development. The measure providing over $150 million annually took effect in mid-2023 and will take years--not months to deliver the desired results.  

Even with those green sprouts, the legendary inefficiency of the state bureaucracy in implementing them and the traditional lack of aggressive legislative oversight is a major concern. 

Meanwhile, the enduring irony of the state's political narrative continues. With over $60 billion in a myriad of reserves we continue to languish, with a too large proportion of our citizens remain stuck in a quality of life long ago surpassed by the rest of the nation. 

SHOULDERS SHRUGGING 

Here's an update on that other bout of economic turbulence that recently hit the state. 

For Sandia National Labs where as many as 500 layoffs are underway, the labs overall budget will actually move up a smidgen next fiscal year--less than 1 percent--while Los Alamos and its weapon modernization programs mean that budget will skyrocket a stunning 17 percent. 

For Sandia and ABQ the trend is the issue. The subdued response to the layoffs here by the public, press and congressional delegation--(or no response at all) is in sharp contrast to earlier generations who bolted from their chairs at any mention of a budget threat to the labs.

The collective shrugging of shoulders over the layoffs sends a message that they are no big deal and that New Mexico may not be ready for a fight. Future budget-cutters could use that as a guide on deciding whose bread gets buttered. 

Don't say we didn't tell you.

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We've often bragged about ABQ's airport over the years, citing its convenience, cleanliness, aesthetic beauty and overall excellence. (And with our state's rankings so often in the cellar we are thankful for the talking point).  

Now as the peak vacation travel season gets going, we're glad to see that view shared by the Washington Post as they rank the ABQ International Sunport the nation's seventh best on their top fifty list. An excerpt:

Few airports embody their location more than the Sunport, a study in the Southwestern aesthetic. The adobe-style terminal feels like it belongs in a local pueblo rather than the gateway to New Mexico. Take a moment in the Great Hall after check-in to soak in the vibe on one of the airport’s wood-and-leather chairs or benches. It’s “totally New Mexico,” as one reader put it. 

Look up and take in the ceiling’s decorated wood beams, or vigas. Check out the Cavalcade of Wings’s more than 900 aircraft models before going through TSA. Stop in the new food court after TSA for a cup of piñon coffee, a brew flavored with the nut of the tree that grows in the high desert. Drink it under Lincoln Fox’s impressive “Dream of Flight” sculpture. Then pick up some red or green chile before heading to the gate. 

Fliers love ♥ Murals in the Great Hall from Native American artist Pop Chalee that depict buffalo and horses. Close to the city, it’s 5 miles from Albuquerque’s city hall.

Congrats to all the Sunport staff, especially the maintenance division whose work is consistently outstanding. We could not ask for a better gateway to the Land of Enchantment and now the nation knows. 

BOTTOM LINES & HAPPY FOURTH

About those layoffs at Sandia National Labs that we reported of this week and where we said that they appeared to be the first in "living memory," we get this from reader Michael Emerson: 

Joe, see page 11 of this report this on Sandia's history: 

. . .From 1970 to 1974, national budgets for research and development declined by nearly a third.” Federally funded nondefense research and development had undergone a 22 percent reduction from 1966 to 1975 due to the costs of the Vietnam War. This reduced funding resulted in three personnel layoffs at Sandia in 1970, 1971, and 1973.

Those layoffs were massive (something like 15-20% were let go) and traumatic for the city. I was in elementary school at the time and vividly remember hearing of fathers of classmates losing their jobs. The handling of the layoffs led to class action age discrimination lawsuits resulting in Sandia rehiring employees in the early 1980s. 

As a result of the 1970s layoffs, Sandia has avoided the practice and the use of the term “layoffs."

Great stuff, Michael. In this case "living memory" is for those under the age of 60. . .

In a first draft Wednesday we stated that Dem land commission candidate Juan Sanchez did not mention Sen. Martin Heinrich, who has endorsed his candidacy, on his website. That was an oversight. The senator is mentioned on Sanchez's bio page as well as the endorsement section. 

That's it for now. Happy Fourth, New Mexico.  Frank, fly us out of here. . .from the Sunport.

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Sanchez, McQueen & Moya

How about that race for the '26 Dem nomination for state land commissioner? Two up and coming thirtysomething Hispanic candidates are facing off with an accomplished state legislator old enough to be their father. 

Six term Santa Fe county state Rep. Matthew McQueen, 56, is giving up the HD 50 seat he has held since 2015 to make the run. He is a House committee chairman, an attorney and equipped with a resume longer than the train on Lauren Sanchez's wedding gown. 

Tucumcari area rancher Jonas Moya, 34, served as executive director of the New Mexico Cattle Growers' Association, is a former Biden-appointed state director for the Farm Service Agency and has an air of confidence about him.

Juan Sanchez, 32, has deep family roots in Socorro and Valencia counties and experience as natural resource specialist and ranger for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. However, he is best known in political circles as a former top political aide to US Sen. Heinrich who has already endorsed him.

If elected, any one of this trio is set to be an aggressive administrator of the State Land Office which oversees some 9 million acres of state trust land benefiting the public schools, universities and hospitals.

RACE OUTLOOK 

McQueen came into the race this week with good timing, becoming the solo Anglo candidate against the two Hispanic hopefuls. His background is rock solid with progressives. That record includes the break he made with MLG over hydrogen development, a bane to the enviros.  

Sanchez's endorsement by Heinrich is a mixed blessing. It should help with fundraising but Heinrich's flirtation with a possible run for the Dem Guv nomination against Deb Haaland stings with some progressives. Also hovering is Heinrich's unsuccessful endorsement of a Dem primary candidate for land commissioner in 2018. Sanchez is also making note of his service as vice-chairman of the NM Dem party when Haaland was chair. 

Moya would seem to come at the office with a slightly more moderate approach than his rivals, given his background as a rancher and former head of the cattle group. If McQueen and Sanchez start splitting votes up maybe he could pass them by. He is not a lightweight.

McQueen is the only one of the three with a political base and it's in important Santa Fe. He also has stature among state and national environmental groups for being the real deal and that aforementioned independent streak. He could be positioned to win the pre-primary convention.

Stephanie Garcia Richard has completed two terms as land commissioner and is now running for the Dem nomination for lieutenant governor. Skeptics questioned her credentials for the land office job but she proved capable over her eight year run.

As for the Republicans, none has announced a run yet. With three notable entrants the Dems don't appear likely to loose their grip on the office. 

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Darren White

The most prominent Republican in the seven candidate race for ABQ mayor has been busted for misrepresenting his residency and taking a property tax exemption on his Florida home that only Florida's full-time residents are eligible for and that he wasn't entitled to. The development could change the complexion of the contest. 

Former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White brushes aside taking advantage of the Florida Homestead Property Tax Exemption to get a $50,000 tax exemption on his Port St. Joe house since 2022, asserting that "voters care more about crime in Albuquerque than property tax technicalities in Florida,"

But do they?

After decades in public service White had already accumulated more than his fair share of political baggage. That includes his forced resignation as ABQ's Public Safety Director under GOP Mayor Berry after intervening in the police investigation of a serious auto accident involving his then wife. (Our comprehensive coverage of that 2011 drama is here.)

There are many other examples of White's public troubles but the addition of the tax scheme of claiming he was a resident of Florida is fresh meat foe his opponents. Besides damaging his integrity, the incident  could slow White's fund-raising as potential donors hesitate over his candidacy. 

White and other candidates tried and failed to qualify for public financing and are now trying to resuscitate their campaigns by going private. City finance reports come out July 14. 

Mayor Tim Keller is the only contender to quality for the $756,000 in public money. Several political consultants we interviewed believe that it will take at least $500,000 for a Keller foe to have a fighting chance, barring any major mistakes by the incumbent. 

Conventional wisdom has had White a favorite to finish second behind Keller and perhaps get in a run-off with Keller.  If no candidate wins 50 percent of the vote at the Nov. 4 election a month later a run-off election would be held between the top two vote-getters. It's no longer clear that White would be the natural to come in second behind the Dem mayor.

UBALLEZ POUNCES 

Keller & Uballez

Dem progressive candidate Alex Uballez could be a beneficiary of the White disclosure if it causes the conservative vote to become even more split. Uballez, a former US attorney, came with this on the heels of the front-paging of White's woes: 

While our neighbors are struggling to afford rent or keep up with property tax, Darren White was avoiding paying his fair share on his beachfront home in Florida. Especially right now, we need a mayor with a track record of serving the public good, not dodging their responsibility to contribute to it. Among a long list of disqualifications, this raises the question of whether this is the quality of leadership we deserve. 

The Journal reported the disclosure of White's now ill-fated tax exemption came first from "an outside source affiliated with a Republican political consulting firm."

We broke the news here last month that well-known national GOP consulting firm Axiom has been signed by Daniel Chavez, the parking lot businessman, who is running as an independent and put up $100,000 of personal funds to ensure he collected enough petition signatures to qualify for the ballot. 

It is not known whether Rockville, MD based Axiom was the behind the scenes player busting White. Those that could benefit from it in addition to Chavez are conservative Democrats Louie Sanchez, Mayling Armijo and retired firefighter Eddie Varela, the only other Republican besides White in the race.

That's music to the ears of Uballez, the other progressive in the race in addition to Keller and who needs all the breaks he can get. A former Sheriff claiming residency in another state that he doesn't have while condemning Keller for being a failure on crime is just that kind of break.

THE BOTTOM LINES 

Houses in Port St. Joe, located on Florida's westside with a population of 4,200, sell for around $500,000, according to Zillow. The $50,000 tax exemption White claimed would save him around $1,000 a year, according to the state. White now rents out the house. 

White received a medical cannabis license during the administration of GOP Gov. Susana Martinez. He served as co-owner and CEO of PūrLife from 2015 until the company was sold in September 2021. The company gave $11,000 to Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham's 2018 campaign. As Governor she successfully pursued legalization of marijuana that was approved by the legislature in 2021. 

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The word layoffs is an indecipherable hieroglyph at Sandia National Laboratories. 

They probably need an anthropologist to tell them what it means, because in Sandia's nearly 80 year history even old timers can't recall the nuclear weapons research and development institution using that dreary noun. But there it is, against all odds and splashed across the headlines for all to guffaw at. 

(A reader now informs there were layoffs in the early 70's and we'll follow up on that.) 

Like so many other norms under Trump, this one died a public death with the Labs announcing that 1 to 3 percent of its workforce--as many as 510 well-paid employees--would be let go due to a "restructuring" at the place where nuclear weapons are born and raised.

Say what? doesn't come close to describing the surprise this has been greeted with. 

Most everyone missed or didn't take to heart the recent congressional testimony of Sec. of Energy Chris Wright where he detailed a sharper definition for the mission of the nation's 17 national laboratories and forthcoming budget cuts. 

Sen. Martin Heinrich, the senior Democrat on the Senate Energy Committee where Wright made his case, did see it coming, saying Wright's new paradigm would mean slashing $2.75 billion and 7,700 jobs.

Months ago the New Mexican raised a red flag over funding for Los Alamos Laboratories but it turns out that the budget for that nuclear weapons outpost will actually grow under Wright's plans--not so Sandia. 

Los Alamos is so busy they have placed employees in Santa Fe because of a lack of space as they focus on nuclear weapons modernization. Sandia's mission is broader and more vulnerable.

ABQ'S SPINAL CORD 

Heinrich and the rest of the state's DC delegation, always ready to boast of  how they "protect the labs," had not a word to say as Sandia dropped their bombshell (thankfully not a live one). Perhaps being made speechless by the seemingly unprecedented news is their excuse. 

Sandia, the spinal cord of the ABQ metro economy, has a workforce of nearly 17,000 with 13,000 of them in ABQ and the remainder in California. The annual budget is around $3.5 billion. That is major moolah in a state of a bit more than 2 million souls and not much of a private business climate.

When the Alligators were done choking on their tortillas, they posed the all-important question: Is this a one and done deal or are we in for something more disturbing?

DOWNSIZING CAUSE  

The downsizing appears to be driven not only over cost concerns but the administration's antipathy toward renewable energy research. 

We see where $49 million is being stripped from the Lab's budget for research for the Holy Trinity of the environmental left-- solar, wind and geothermal--seen on the right as a triple waste of time.  

And that line item to have Sandia look into methane mitigation? Forget it. It's gone and to the applause of the oil boys. 

The hit on renewables comes with the support of the now notorious Project 2025 whose manifesto reshaping the federal government was circulating even before Musk and the DOGE cutters came along.  

A PEAK IS REACHED 

The one and done believers on the layoffs are getting the benefit of the doubt because the target is nonnuclear items which is the lion's share of the budget. And while the layoffs stunned the city, there has been an explosion (pun intended) in employment at Sandia.

Looking at the 2020 numbers, total jobs skyrocketed to 14,000 with 1,100 new positions amid the start of the updating of the nation's nuclear arsenal.That compares with the aforementioned 17,000 employees today, so even if the full 3 percent layoff target is implemented, Sandia's recent rapid growth is hardly negated. 

A former aide to Senator Jeff Bingaman, who chaired Senate Energy as did Senator Pete Domenici and who were were known for safeguarding the lab budgets for decades, was cautious about the future, telling us:

Let's face it. After Trump the federal government will never be the same. The peak of many programs has been reached. For Sandia that peak was high. Scaling new ground above it is probably not in the cards. 

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Councilor Garcia

In covering Monday's large Santa Fe protest to oppose the sale of federal public lands we mentioned that there does not appear to be a clear front-runner for the large progressive voting bloc in the city's November mayoral election. Not that the hopefuls aren't trying. City Councilor and mayoral candidate Mike Garcia sends this: 

It was amazing to participate in the rally. As a frequent recreational user of our state’s extraordinary public lands, I could not sit idle. I made my own sign and marched with others to advocate that public lands are to be protected and not sold off to the highest bidder. 

Meanwhile, Garcia has more competition with the addition to the race of first term Santa Fe County Commissioner Justin Greene. His campaign says: 

Crumbling roads, rising rents, and a worsening housing crisis have left residents frustrated and eager for change. . . is launching his campaign to bring fresh energy, real solutions, and accountability to City Hall. Greene is committed to delivering effective solutions that improve infrastructure, strengthen public safety, and address homelessness and the housing crisis — all with transparency, urgency, and integrity. 

Seven candidates are now running to succeed two term Mayor Alan Webber. Most of them seem reasonably informed and the City Different can look forward to an interesting campaign. 

That big surprise in the New York mayoral race Tuesday where underdog and democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani came out on top in the Democratic primary shows how the unexpected can happen in a mayoral contest. Of course, in the Santa Fe race the expectations in the early going are kind of a blank slate-- although with an established base of voters Garcia and Greene are in the top tier. 

DATELINE ABQ 

In the ABQ mayoral campaign Mayor Tim Keller is blasting opponents who are blaming the city's public financing system for being too complicated as an explanation for why they did not qualify for $756,000 in public money. Keller was the only candidate to qualify and defends the process:

Qualifying for Albuquerque’s public financing system isn’t meant to be easy. It requires hard work and the ability to build a team of volunteers. . .That means thousands of humble face-to-face conversations about the future of our city. . .Candidates signed on to pursue public financing knowing the rules, and now they are complaining about the system when they can’t make the cut— let’s be clear: the rules haven’t changed in twenty years, and candidates from both parties, incumbents and challengers, have made the cut in the past. What’s changed is that, this year, we have hardly seen any other candidates personally ask voters to support their public financing because some of my opponents were either too arrogant, slow, or ineffective.

Pretty rough language for Keller's opponents there. If Keller wins a third term it appears the City Council would need a veto proof majority--six of the nine councilors--to make any major changes to the current financing system.  

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A massive Monday protest in Santa Fe against that Republican proposal to sell off two million acres of federal land for development--including some in New Mexico--and that drew a crowd variously estimated at two to three thousand--was a potent reminder that the nationalization of New Mexican politics is alive and well and will continue to reverberate at the state's ballot boxes.

First came Trump's election in 2016 that started the backlash, then came the debate on abortion rights and now there is the general displeasure with Trump's second term motivating robust political protest and voter participation. 

The crowd that jammed the streets outside the El Dorado Hotel where a Western Governors Association meeting was in session and that included a speech by Trump Interior Secretary Burgum, was quintessentially progressive. They decorated the scene with colorful signs (GOP Land Steal--No Bueno) filled the air with loud chants and created an overall 60's vibe that has never really disappeared from the fortresses of state liberalism that are Santa Fe and Taos.

The national dominance of the local agenda is already noticeable in the ABQ mayoral race where incumbent Tim Keller is reminding whoever will listen that Trump is the poison and that he is the antidote. That's the familiar path he took in 2017 when he won his first term and when Trump also loomed large. 

In the Santa Fe mayoral race, also on the ballot this November, there is less clarity on who will benefit from progressive enthusiasm to vote. There is no clear front-runner yet in the field of six hopefuls who want to succeed two term progressive Mayor Alan Webber. But if any one of the candidates can capture the fervor on display Monday they are sure to be formidable. 

In the still embryonic Governor's race, Deb Haaland needs all the progressive support she can get for next June's primary as Sam Bregman works to consolidate other wings of the party. Haaland had to be gratified by the enthusiastic Santa Fe crowd. If she can capture that kind of energy among progressives there and  in ABQ and Las Cruces denying her the Dem nomination will be problematic.

Meanwhile the US Senate parliamentarian ruled Tuesday that the provision to sell off those federal lands can't be included in the big budget bill under consideration. For New Mexico Republicans that's not a defeat but a favor. 

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Interim US Attorney Ellison

Our Legal Beagles are on the case of new New Mexico US attorney Ryan Ellison. 

Ellison was appointed USA by Attorney General Pam Bondi in April, sworn in by a federal judge and has since been moving aggressively to put the Trump administration's imprint on the important office. 

His powers are so formidable that US attorneys are required to be nominated by the president and confirmed by the US Senate. 

But that longstanding oversight has been put on the shelf for Ellison and other US attorneys through the appointment process. 

One of our Beagles checks in on this most unusual turn of events:

Joe, Ryan Ellison was named as U.S. Attorney for New Mexico on April 18, but no one seems to care that he wasn't nominated by the President nor confirmed by the Senate. At best, he can be the "Interim U.S. Attorney," and it should clearly state that on the Justice Dept. website. Instead, his profile states he is the U.S. Attorney. Ellison has already named an entirely new management team and restructured the criminal division.

Trump seems to be just skipping the nominations of U.S. Attorneys in many districts and the AG is appointing them--skipping any input by home state senators (Sens. Heinrich and Lujan do have blue slips for U.S. Attorney nominees in the District of NM) and avoiding the Senate confirmation process. 

Has anyone asked Heinrich and Lujan if they are recommending candidates to the White House for a Senate confirmed U.S. Attorney? Seems they've abdicated their authority in this process and let Trump install a U.S. Attorney without any Senate confirmation. So much for the "Advice and Consent" clause of the Constitution.

More importantly, are they going to do the same thing when a federal judgeship vacancy opens up in the district, and not weigh in for a lifetime appointment to the bench? Those judges typically serve 20+ years - will Martin and Ben Ray do their jobs? 

Ellison, 37, is a native of Alamogordo who since 2018 served as an Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Las Cruces Branch Office as Supervisory Assistant U.S. Attorney of the Violent and General Crimes Section.

He's not wasting time aggressively pursing Trump's tough immigration policies: 

U.S. Attorney Ryan Ellison announced the office won its first cases of trespassing within the state’s newly created military buffer zone. In mid-April, the U.S. Department of Interior transferred. . land to the U.S. Army, after which the Army made it an extension of the Fort Huachuca Army installation in Arizona. That same day, the fort’s commander issued a regulation designating the land as a restricted area. The U.S. Attorney’s Office then started charging people with trespassing, now called the New Mexico National Defense Area.

That's a whole new way of doing immigration policy. It may or may not be fine but surely the individual commanding such powers should be subjected to the checks and balances that prevent the abuse of those powers?

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It's official.There will be seven mayoral candidates on the ABQ election ballot November 4. 

Here's where the contest stands with roughly four months to go:

--Democratic Mayor Tim Keller is poised for a first round victory but could face a December run-off election if he fails to reach 50 percent of the vote. 

Keller's chances of avoiding a run-off have actually gone up this month because none of the hopefuls opposing him qualified for $756,000 in public financing for their campaigns. But Keller has. 

Here's Dem consultant David Alcon:

It is possible that even in this crowded field Keller could reach that 50 percent mark if his opposition fails to raise substantial money. Besides the $756,000 in public money, there is an outside political committee collecting money for Keller. His total fund-raising could easily top $1 million. 

If the rest of the field can't compete financially, what was very unlikely could become reality--Keller could win a third term in the first round of balloting. 

THE CHALLENGERS 

Eddie Varela

The field of challengers is mostly unknown. 

Republican and former BernCo Sherrif Darren White has some name ID but he is loaded up with past political baggage and is hampered by a divided GOP. 

Back to Alcon: 

If there is a run-off White could be in it by finishing second but can he consolidate the GOP base vote? Even if he did, ABQ is heavily Democratic. He would likely lose a run-off in a landslide. That's what happened to Republican Dan Lewis when he faced Keller in 2017 when Keller won his first term. 

Complicating matters for White are other conservatives trying to bring Keller down. 

Retired firefighter Eddie Varela is campaigning openly as a Republican in the officially nonpartisan election and turned in the second highest number of qualifying signatures--right behind Keller. 

Independent candidate Daniel Chavez hired a well-known GOP consulting group to help him collect the 3,000 signatures needed to qualify for the ballot. He put up $100,000 in personal money to do it but has not yet shown an inkling to add more. Still, he is another conservative vying for votes.

Add to the conservative mix City Councilor Louie Sanchez and former Sandoval Deputy County Manager Mayling Armijo. 

That's five candidates potentially splitting the bedrock anti-Keller vote.  

The only contender challenging Keller for Democratic progressive voters and similar-minded independents is former US Attorney Alex Uballez. His campaign stumbled badly in the opening days, losing key consultants and failing to qualify for public financing. But it is Uballez who still poses the most danger to Keller--if he can restart his campaign with robust fund-raising and more energy.

A Keller-Uballez run-off would have more potential for an upset than a Keller-White face off which would, as Alcon said, likely be a layup for Keller.  

NOTHING COMING EASY

Mayor Keller

The failure of anyone but Keller to qualify for public financing is seen by some political veterans as the death knell for the mayoral race--that it is over before it has started. But there is time for a candidate to do the unexpected and pull away from the pack. 

The key is obviously fundraising and reigniting voter discontent over crime and homelessness, two issues that have slowed Keller in public polling and that remain persistent.

To make Keller vulnerable his opposition will have to "denationalize" the race, arguing that what is happening in ABQ cannot and should not be rationalized away by similar problems in other cities. They must make an electorate that seems quiescent, if not apathetic, feel differently. 

Indicting Keller's leadership on public safety and offering a believable alternative will be essential.

It will be anything but easy. 

The lack of a major foe for Keller points to his effectiveness as a politician with a solid organization, his superior communication skills, his resistance to the narrative that the city's best days are behind it and his near constant introduction of new and interesting solutions--even if many have failed in the past eight years. Also, for the majority Democrats his leadership contrasts well with that of President Trump which also helped him in his 2017 election.

That's a lot of string for his opponents to unwind and the clock starts now.  

Joe Monahan began his journalism and blogging career in 1974, covering the first ABQ mayoral race conducted under the new City Charter. 

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Securing the Democratic nomination for governor won't come at a bargain basement price. Inflation isn't exempting the cost of campaigning and the $4 million that MLG and Republican Mark Ronchetti each spent in 2022 to win their nominations is expected to be equaled and likely surpassed.

Already Deb Haaland says she has raised nearly as much as Lujan Grisham spent in her three way primary, reporting a total of $3.7 million raised. Haaland spent $1.7 million as of April 7.

What does that mean for BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman, Haaland's chief rival? We put that question to a veteran Dem consultant not affiliated with any Guv campaign: 

Bregman will definitely have to raise and spend $3 to 5 million if he wants to compete against Haaland. She may or may not spend more but for Bregman $3 million is the low, low end to stay in the fight. 

What about the immense wealth that Bregman's son has accumulated with his stellar baseball career? Could that come into play? The consultant replied:

His son would not give him vast sums as an individual. The maximum amount an individual can contribute is $12,000 per election cycle (primary or general election), meaning a total of $24,000 if contributing to both. But Bregman's son (Alex) could donate as much as he wanted to a political action committee that would support his father's campaign. That is an ace in the hole that Bregman may have that could make a real difference if in the months ahead he gets the race in play.

Despite the continued decline in audience for over the air TV stations like KOB, KOAT and KRQE, political ads at those stations are more than keeping up with inflation. Back to the consultant:

It wasn't long ago that an effective ad buy--at least 1,000 ratings points per week was going for $100,000. That price is more than double now, so it will cost the candidates at least $1.6 million to stay on TV in ABQ for the two months head of next June's primary. And that does not include El Paso to reach Las Cruces voters. 

Broadcast TV and cable is still important in campaign advertising because voters aged 50 and over still depend on them as their main source of information and they are the age group most likely to vote. 

Bregman has just begun his fund-raising and reported $76,000 in cash in April. 

The consultant says we won't need early polling to determine the leader in the race, saying if Bregman has not raised around $2 million by late fall, it could be a sign of trouble. Ditto for Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima who faces the steepest fundraising hill to climb. 

WHAT THEY ARE

Here's some insider info on the TV game that is so critical to the candidates as explained by campaign operatives:

 In TV advertising, "1,000 points" refers to Gross Ratings points that measures the reach and frequency of an ad campaign. One GRP represents 1% of the target audience reached by an advertisement. If a TV ad reaches 1% of a target audience of 100,000 people, that’s 1 GRP. If the ad airs multiple times, the GRPs accumulate. This means the ad campaign has achieved a cumulative reach equivalent to 1,000% of the target audience. For instance, it could mean reaching 100% of the audience 10 times (frequency) or 50% of the audience 20 times, depending on the campaign structure.

Thanks, but that's like going to summer school. Time to jump in the pool and sign along with this.

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Jon Lipschutz

Sam Bregman hardly had time to gloat over the news that Deb Haaland's campaign manager was forced out the door when Bregman's manager for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination was dropped in hot water:

A new lawsuit filed by the New Mexico Ethics Commission alleges the nonprofit New Mexico Safety over Profit failed to report at least $56,000 spent lobbying against medical malpractice reform before the legislative session. The group’s executive director, Jon Lipschutz, manages. . .Sam Bregman’s campaign. Bregman also serves as the (Bernalillo County) District attorney. . .New Mexico Safety Over Profit operates as a 501c(4) nonprofit, putting it under no federal legal obligations to disclose its donors, thus earning the moniker “dark money groups.” . .. That federal status, however, does not exempt the organization from the disclosure requirements of New Mexico’s Lobbyist Regulation Act or Campaign Reporting Act. 

Lipschutz is a longtime time Dem operative who operates the firm Big I Strategies and comes at his politics from the center-right, not exactly the dominant strain in today's progressive dominated Dem party. But Bregman is veering right and trying to break that mold and upset Haaland for the nomination next June.

That both of the leading Dem candidates are navigating troubles with their managers at this early stage is not exactly inspiring for the party but the Republicans are also wobbling early.

Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, the only official GOP hopeful, appears on the edge of pulling out of the race and possible contender Duke Rodriguez is encountering turbulence over his voter registration and voter history.

Back at the Haaland camp, mum is the word over the story we broke revealing that her campaign manager, Scott Forrester, was sent to the showers because of disputes over campaign finances and strategy. 

When asked for comment by the New Mexican a spokeswoman for Haaland would not even acknowledge that Forrester was ousted. (Is that how they would run the government?)

Since then we've learned that the financial issue is over how much Forrester has been compensated by the campaign and that talks continue over that and any future role he might have.

Watching all of this from the sidelines is the third Dem candidate for the nomination, former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima. Hey, Ken. How's your manager doing?  

CAMPAIGN JAB 

Before he got the bad news on Lipschutz, Bregman fired off this fund-raising appeal in the aftermath of the Forrester news with plenty of indirect jibes at front-runner Haaland: 

Too many politicians in Washington are weak, and Democrats are not doing enough to fight back. They cave under pressure. Meanwhile, families in New Mexico are desperate for real change. Our schools are struggling. Crime is on the rise. Healthcare is out of reach for too many. And while the political class talks in circles, folks back home pay the price. That’s why I’m running for Governor. Not to play it safe. Not to climb the political ladder. But to get things done and to fight for New Mexicans who are tired of excuses.

Haaland isn't dignifying Bregman with any hits at this stage and doesn't need to. But she does have her hands full steadying her campaign that in the post-Kamala Harris era finds itself on shifting ground.

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Heinrich in Taos

Criticized for being adrift in the US Senate and for not actually liking the job, Senator Martin Heinrich seems to be finding his voice in the early stages of his third term.

That's thanks in no small part to President Trump and Republican lawmakers whose environmental policies especially rankle the Democratic senator with a well-known fondness for the natural environment. 

Senate Republicans are proposing to sell off up to 3.3 million acres of federally owned land in 11 Western states to make room for affordable housing, a move Heinrich calls a "fire sale and "taking up a sledgehammer."

Here's Heinrich, the state's senior senator, at a Taos rally called to fight the plan as well as the president's push for more power to abolish national monuments including several in New Mexico: 

Our national monuments are about who we are. They tell the story of our ancestors, support jobs and our rural economies, and connect Americans to our history and the land itself. No president can erase that. … We’re ready to fight back — and we won’t back down.

It's the kind of sharp-edged rhetoric that is not a Heinrich trademark but now with what he sees as an existential threat hanging over the lands that he cherishes, he is revealing a firmer and more confident voice backed up by his increasing seniority.

Just months ago Heinrich was close to leaving his job and announcing a run for governor. We discussed his change of heart with a close Heinrich political associate:

He really dropped his bid for governor because the arrival of Trump gave a new depth and seriousness to his position as a senator. It wasn't political. He sees his work now in a different light with more urgency and focus as the stakes go sky high for the issues that he cares most about. 

Heinrich's rise to ranking member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee has put more institutional power behind him. If the Democrats take back the Senate in the years ahead he will likely become chairman of that committee so important to the state. 

He is now following the career paths of Senators Domenici and Bingaman who found great satisfaction chairing the panel, a feeling that Heinrich, who came to the Hill in 2009 as a congressman, finally appears to be realizing.

Heinrich, 52, quietly campaigned to become Secretary of Interior under President Biden who eventually chose fellow New Mexican Deb Haaland. But if he sustains this trajectory of his senate career--ironically inspired by Trump--his strengthened voice will reverberate on the Hill and the nation.

THE JUNIOR SENATOR

Meanwhile, Senator Ben Ray Lujan, seeking re-election to a second term next year, also appears to be finding renewed purpose in the chaotic DC atmosphere. 

While Heinrich concentrates on the state's environment and natural resources, Lujan, a new member of of the Senate Finance Committee, is focusing on the nitty gritty of entitlement programs--Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and food stamps--that are the target of budget-cutters. They are especially vital in high poverty New Mexico. He says:

. . .Cuts would shut down clinics, rip away food and care, and leave families with nowhere to turn. For seniors living on fixed incomes, for parents working to make ends meet, and for rural communities already facing barriers to care – these programs are lifelines. I will keep fighting in the Senate to stop these cuts and protect the dignity and well-being of every New Mexican. 

Like Heinrich, Lujan, 53, came to Washington as a congressman in 2009. He has always demonstrated notable political skills but they have atrophied since his arrival in the Senate. But with Trump also reinvigorating him, the state's US Senate delegation is looking balanced and equipped for their long battle ahead. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.