Elaine Sena Cortez

Progressives dominate the state's agenda but New Mexico has hardly moved the needle on the myriad of social woes that plague the state. All the while Republicans have lost ground as we blogged about Tuesday Now comes a damning indictment of the progressives from soon-to-be state Rep. Elaine Sena Cortez of Hobbs who won the Republican primary in House District 62 in Hobbs and has no Democratic opposition in November. Here's her column:

Our governor and the progressive majorities in the state Legislature don’t appear to be interested in offering workable solutions at a time when our state is facing the worst violent crime rate in the country; our public schools are consistently ranked last for student success; the crisis along our southern border has created a fentanyl epidemic that is killing too many New Mexicans; generational poverty threatens the long-term future of our families; and abused and neglected children are failing to receive the protection they deserve. I believe progressive Democrats are wholly responsible for these problems since they have controlled the Legislature and the governor’s office for the last six years, yet they want to talk about one issue: abortion. 

There is something fundamentally wrong when the party charged with leading our state refuses to address the critical issues facing our state but has no reluctance to base their quest for political power almost solely on the backs of the unborn. For far too long, Republican candidates have stayed silent regarding abortion and have hesitated to engage their progressive opponents on this sensitive issue. In turn, this silence has permitted progressives to define Republicans as being anti-women or not caring about women’s health care issues. 

Unfortunately, this false narrative perpetuated by progressives has allowed them to take total control of the state and enact a devastating agenda that has made our state unrecognizable. Abortion is an issue that requires real conversation: Should there be restrictions around viability? Should parents be notified if their minor child has an abortion? Should women be given all the information about available resources when making tough pregnancy-related decisions? Should taxpayers have to pay for something with which they morally disagree? Should New Mexico taxpayers be footing the bill for out-of-state residents to obtain abortions here? The repeal of Roe v. Wade returned these and other policy questions to the states. 

ONE TRICK PONIES

Progressive Democrat lawmakers, however, have refused to consider any of these important questions. As a result, they have made New Mexico an abortion capital of the U.S. Progressive Democrats have become one-trick political ponies, touting abortion every chance they get, so they don’t have to address the other crises in our state. 

If New Mexico voters continue to choose progressive candidates this November, then they have no excuse to complain about our failing schools, our neighborhoods becoming crime battlegrounds, our children suffering abuse and neglect, our crumbling health care system and opportunities for our kids and grandkids disappearing. They will have proven that their all-abortion, all-the-time strategy is all that’s needed to maintain their failed leadership. Our state cannot afford a Democratic-controlled Legislature that continues turning a blind eye to every issue except abortion. It is time to have real discussions about the issues facing our state, all of them. 

OUR THOUGHTS

Sena Cortez effectively indicts the prevailing powers but what she and Republicans would do differently and in a manner that finds support in a mainly nonconservative electorate remains on the table. 

Also, her call for a "real conversation" on abortion bypasses the fact that an overwhelming majority of New Mexicans are not interested in further discussing abortion. They are pro-choice and supportive of the status quo. 

The conversation needed on abortion is within the confines of the Republican party and how it proceeds to shed itself of a strident opposition that has made possible the "one trick pony" politics that have been so effective for Democrats at the ballot box. And not so effective in governing mode. We'd be interested in hearing more on that from Sena Cortez but her approach to abortion seems unyielding and hyperbolic, the same characteristics that have chased voters here away from the GOP.

Still, Sena Cortez does confront the core questions that faces Santa Fe: 

How can billions of dollars in excess revenue not be making a major difference in the quality of life of so many New Mexicans and where is the accountability?

Sena Cortez is a business consultant and holds a doctorate degree in business administration from the University of the Southwest in Hobbs where she also teaches.

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Tim Walz and MLG

If she sticks around two more years her approval rating could be in danger of sliding below 40 percent. That's where two term Governors Richardson and Martinez ended up. 

For now the Sept 6-13 ABQ Journal poll shows MLG scores a 45 percent approval rating with 44 percent disapproving and 11 percent with no opinion.  

That compares to the Emerson College Poll of August 20-22 when 41 percent approved and 48 percent disapproved of her performance. 

The Guv's approval in the average of the two polls is 43 percent. 

The impact of her slide down the polling pole revealed itself at the July special session that she called on crime and that was met by the Legislature turning their backs on her and ignoring her bills.

Paid media was put out in an effort to persuade lawmakers to pass her agenda but to no avail. Similar  results can be expected if she tries again in January. 

The Governor and lawmakers would be well-advised to finally put the crime problem squarely on the laps of those where it belongs--the mayors and city councils of ABQ and Santa Fe where the crime wave is centered. The media would be advised to do the same.

Of interest in the latest poll is Lujan Grisham's 48 percent approval rating and 42 percent disapproval in ABQ, the epicenter of the crime crisis. 

That a plurality here still approves of her seems to signal that they are not assigning all the blame to her for the crime wave. And they shouldn't. It belongs, as it always has, with our local leaders whether they be in Albuquerque or Abiqui.

With the polls sucking the drama out of the major races, the subplot of MLG getting a job with a Harris administration and Lt. Gov. Howie Morales then taking the helm is keeping the chattering classes fueled. 

Would a Governor Howie of Silver City stick his nose into the ABQ crime nest? Not if he was paying any attention to what his boss has gone through these past six years. 

BIDEN APPROVAL 

President Biden manages only a 44 percent approval rating in the Journal survey with 48 percent disapproval. Sen. Heinrich, favored for re-election, nonetheless freaked out over Scranton Joe's poor standing this summer and was one of the few senators to call on him to not seek re-election. Whether Biden not getting made much of a difference for Heinrich will never be known but he's doing just fine with Harris as the nominee.

MLG AND PROGRESSIVES

Longtime reader Paul Roybal comments on the Guv's standing:

Joe, If following the Governor's lead involves a photo-op in front of a homeless camp in Albuquerque, you're right—many progressives may not fully align with that approach. In her "we know we can do better" speech, she seems to suggest that addiction and behavioral health issues arise from homelessness, rather than contribute to it. Some progressives also feel that her "my way" governing style leaves little room for collaboration.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Senate hopefuls Nella Domenici and Martin Heinrich sat down for separate 25 minute interviews with KRQE recently. The duo has one TV debate scheduled--on KOAT October 14. . . 

ABQ Mayor Tim Keller says he will announce his run for a third term early next year. . . 

There's still no plea deal in the corruption case against fromer state House Majority Leader Sheryl Williams Stapleton who pled not guilty to 35 charges including conspiracy to defraud the United States and multiple counts of bribery and money laundring. The case began in July 2021. A trial is now scheduled for March 2025.

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The near death experience delivered to their presidential and US senate candidates in the first '24 ABQ Journal poll has Republicans wondering what it will take to get back to the winner's circle or even on its edge. The answer, according to a mix of GOP loyalists we've  heard from, is a lot. Here's a list:

--Trump will have to go away before the NMGOP can really rebuild. His appeal in the cities is limited and the need for a different national leader is apparent. But if he wins in November he's going nowhere and that will complicate GOP chances in Blue New Mexico.

--Abortion must also go away. Women remain on the march over reproductive rights, boosting enthusiasm and turnout in a majority Democratic state that is crushing the opposition party. 

---Fresh faces to carry the party banner, preferably more Hispanic faces. The R boosters point to Nicole Chavez, their District 31 ABQ House candidate, as a future template even though she was defeated in her first legislative outing. She lost a family member to murder and brings the crime issue to the fore which is generally a winning issue for the GOP. (Vicky Estrada-Bustillo is the Dem candidate in District 31.  

--Speaking of crime, GOP wise men say somehow the public must become more galvanized over the issue. Ditto for the economy and jobs. If those two issues could dominate the narrative, they believe their chances would rise. 

--With Trump and Nella Domenici on the canvas, GOP worriers say concentrate resources on legislative races. The state House lost three conservative Dems in the primary. Now it's up the GOP to counter more progressive politics.

--Conservatives, not necessarily Republicans, say the way out of the wilderness is to put some points on the board next year in the races for mayor of ABQ and Santa Fe where ongoing crime waves continue to shock the senses. In 2021 ABQ Republicans backed a conservative Democrat for mayor in hopes of turning the tide. They may do so again.

--Redistricting. R's argue the 2021 redrawing of congressional and legislative districts is a large reason for the pickle they are in. They are looking all the way to 2031 for a reprieve when the districts are drawn again, but they will have to have a Republican governor to get a break.

NELLA'S DILEMMA

Domenici

It's not impossible for Nella Domenici, but becoming a Wall Street multimillionaire was a breeze compared to what she now faces in winning the open Senate seat. 

Her 38 percent showing versus Sen. Heinrich's 50 percent in the ABQ Journal survey threatens her fund-raising and could force her to dip further into her large personal fortune which she has already tapped to the tune of $1.5 million. 

More important, the race appears gone unless she can force some kind of error out of Heinrich. But his inner circle is probably advising him to spend the rest of the campaign out of the country and let them handle the rest.

Heinrich is not blowing the doors off. History says Domenici will be on the move more than him in the coming weeks as undecideds come to her.

She is not a forlorn candidate by any means and reaching the base GOP/conservative vote of around 45 percent is very possible. That's getting closer to the top of the mountain. The problem remains the five percent needed to take the summit--if she makes the leap to 45.

One question being asked in light of Domenici's inability to dent Heinrich so far is whether she will pull a Ronchetti, meaning if she loses to Heinrich will she turn around and run for another office as TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti did following his 2020 US senate loss. 

History is not promising in that regard. Ronchetti also lost the 2022 race for Governor.

THE PROJECT

Apodaca

Whether the NM Project will have to report their donors and expenditures remains up in the air but it appears the group could still be a presence in this campaign. 

An ABQ District Court judge recently ruled that the Project, founded by businessman Jeff Apodaca to advocate for issues of importance to Hispanic voters, must disclose who is giving the PAC funding. But Apodaca continues to argue that under federal guidelines the PAC is not required to do so.

Here's the reason the Project may still be involved in the campaign. 

There is a hearing set for next Monday to hear arguments on whether the PAC should get another hearing that would include witness testimony and not be held in contempt of court. Even if the judge rejects that request, and it's likely he will, the Project has said that it will appeal to the state Court of Appeals and if need be to the state Supreme Court  Court. The legal wrangling would allow the Project to continue advocating for issues and publicizing candidates who say they support those issues until a final resolution that would not come until well after the election. 

The PAC is not permitted to endorse candidates but that's what the State Ethics Commission says they are doing and filed the complaint against the Project that is now in the courts. 

Apodaca says the legal fight has hampered his fundraising. Still, he is confident there will be enough business-oriented donors to send a moderate message on jobs, healthcare and other issues into close state legislative races that are seen as close.  

THE BOTTOM LINES

 In our first draft Monday we reported that the Dems need the Rep. Vasquez seat to keep the majority in the US House. The Dems are in the House minority. They need the Vasquez seat to help take the majority. Also, the undecided in the US Senate race is 9 percent not 12 percent.

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Is it back to the future for Donald Trump in New Mexico? 

In 2020 Joe Biden put Trump away here with a ten point win (54-44). In the ABQ Journal poll released Sunday and conducted September 6-13, Kamala Harris sports a ten point lead over the former President, 49 to 39, with 5 percent for other candidates and only 7 percent undecided. Four percent said neither.

Obviously the poll does not bode well for Trump which is not surprising. The state has long been a solid Dem member of the electoral college, awarding its five electoral votes to the Democrat since 2008. 

The Journal US Senate Race poll was released Monday and confirmed Sen. Martin Heinrich's lead over Republican Nella Domenici that other polls reported. The Journal has it 50 to 38 for Heinrich with 9 percent undecided and four percent choosing neither.The race is rated Safe Dem and we'll have more on it this week but today we look at the prez polling.

Harris leads in all geographic areas except the conservative Eastside. 

Men support Trump 46-44 while women go for Harris 54 to 33, a massive 21 point margin. 

That lead among women emphasizes the importance that abortion will again have on voting behavior as well as Harris' rapid acceptance here since replacing President Biden on the ticket. But Dems will be lucky to see her campaign here as her time is consumed by the seven swing states that will decide the election.

The margin of error in the survey is plus or minus 4.2 percent. As usual, the Journal used live interviews of likely voters which is the most reliable method, according to pollsters.

The more ominous side of the poll for the GOP is in the southern congressional district where Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez faces a stiff challenge from Republican Yvette Herrell. But how stiff when Trump is poised to lose the state by a wide margin and based on the poll's geographic results could lose the Vasquez district?

Trump only leads on the conservative Eastside 54-36 but ongoing population loss there has weakened its muscle. And much of it is no longer in the 2nd CD. In the Southwest region that includes Grant and Hidalgo counties Trump loses 46 to 42. 

The 2021 redistricting of the district no longer lurks. It is staring us in the face. 

Biden would have carried the present district boundaries by six points in 2020. Pollster Brian Sanderoff says the presidential race will have a strong influence over who wins the congressional race as well as the few swing legislative districts on the ballot this year. 

Most critically, in the ABQ metro, which includes the ABQ South Valley that is now in the Vasquez district, Harris commands a 54-38 lead. Herrell may be closer than that in the heavy Hispanic Valley where voters can sometimes tilt conservative, but is it enough to win a solid majority that she appears to need there to overtake Vasquez district-wide? 

She will give it her all and has reason to believe that she can still pull it off. Among Hispanic voters statewide the Journal poll says Trump polls at 36 percent. That's a good showing for a GOP contender. In 2004 George W. Bush received about 40 percent of the Hispanic voters here, a high water mark for the GOP. 

AN INSIDER TAKE

A Democratic operative with inside knowledge of the campaign reports that the 2nd CD contest remains close with Vasquez ahead. They inform: 

It's close. He is up. He has a lot more money than her. And she seems to be running the old playbook against him that didn’t work. At this point he wins by 3-4. 

Vasquez has a two to one money lead over Herrell but both parties are coming with large pots of outside cash that is keeping her fueled in the competitive race. 

The Journal will not poll the race until late October.

An Emerson College poll aken Aug 20-22 had Vasquez with a lead of 50-41. That poll now appears to reflect the optimum outcome for the Democrats but with Trump's back against the wall here the Dems have to be encouraged as they battle to keep the New Mexico seat so critical to them to taking the majority in the US House.

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Inside Politics with Nathan Gonzales continue to rank the Vasquez-Herrell contest a Toss-Up. The University of Virginia's Larrry Sabato has it Lean Democrat. 

ABORTION DIVIDE 

Herrell (NYT)

We've reported on how Vasquez has tried to walk the moderate line on so many issues but is now anything but moderate when it comes to abortion. The freshman lawmaker is betting heavy that an unabashed pro-choice stance will take him across the finish line. The NYT Sunday took a look at how that is playing out:

"(The Republicans real agenda is to) block women’s reproductive health care,” Vasquez told about 50 people at a groundbreaking for a new, $10 million state-funded reproductive health clinic. “We’ve seen the consequences of what this means for women.”. . . He has worked to use Herrell’s anti-abortion rights voting record and previous remarks on the issue against her, including a 2020 video clip in which she said during a Republican candidate forum: “I wish we could have eliminated all abortion in this state.” 

Ms. Herrell, unlike some Republicans who have airbrushed or downright misrepresented their past records on the issue, says she is proud of her stance on abortion, including her backing for legislation that would grant legal personhood to fertilized eggs, effectively criminalizing the termination of a pregnancy and potentially aspects of in vitro fertilization treatment.

MAYOR WHO?

Speculation is starting to percolate in Santa Fe over who will run for mayor next year. Current Mayor Alan Webber is keeping folks guessing on whether he will seek a third term while other possible candidates start to pop up. We met up with the New Mexican as the name game takes off. 

(Is it safe to say that Councilor Michael Garcia is about to come in and that Webber will eventually opt out? We think so. And will a surge in City Different crime be the #1 issue in the race?. . . You betcha.)

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You Know Who

Emerging buoyantly after the debate, Harris’ aides and surrogates came bearing a clear message: They wanted another face off in October. “Bring it on!” said New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, a Democrat. “She should do a second debate.”

Our Governor was among the official spinners for VP Harris at Tuesday night's debate which makes for more chatter about her being on the list for a plum position in a Harris administration--should it come to pass.

Her role at the Philadelphia debate was more than honorific. Spinners are assigned to media from all over the map and they have to know their stuff and be articulate. Even her critics admit that this Governor--unlike her predecessor--is fearless when it comes to the national spotlight and media. For her an appearance on Face the Nation is as routine as brushing her teeth. And that's a plus for little 'ol New Mexico.

As pictured, the Governor fueled up on an iconic Philly cheesesteak sandwich before fulfilling her task of praising Harris and dumping on Trump.

Her appetite for political success is equal to her zest for that cheesesteak. She's been elected Bernalillo county commissioner, a US congresswoman and two two terms as Governor. But she seems determined to fill out that impressive resume with something--who knows what--in DC. 

Her pick as a Harris spinner all but shuts the door on speculation that the VP's camp would leave MLG at the altar as she was by the Biden administration when she came squeaky close to getting a cabinet post. 

But her future depends on Harris winning. That means you'll see the Guv chowing down on all kinds of local delicacies offered in the battleground states while the green chile stash in the Mansion freezer remains mostly untouched until after November 5. 

SAFE. . .BUT

Checking in with University of Virginia pundit Larry Sabato, we find him ranking the Heinrich-Domenici senate battle as still "safe" for Heinrich but with a small caveat:

Sen. Heinrich has been running aggressively against Nella Domenici, daughter of the late former Sen. Pete Domenici, suggesting he is taking her challenge seriously in a blue-leaning state. This race seemed to come on the board a bit at the tail end of the slump that would eventually drive President Biden from the presidential race, and the general belief among sources we talked to is that this race might have become highly competitive if Biden had stayed in and the overall Democratic position had not improved. We’re watching it more closely than your average Safe Democratic race, but it remains in that category. 

Heinrich

While Sabato and other pundits believe Heinrich is good for a third term, Sabato predicts the Republicans will take over the Senate majority this year. That would be bad news for Heinrich who might have a good shot at the chairmanship of the Energy Committee if the Dems could hold on to the majority.

Staying with the Senate contest, we get this from Las Cruces blogger Peter Goodman:

I don't watch much TV but do look at internet news and more than any commercial I see a Domenici commercial on women and abortion. She aims to convince voters that NM abortion laws are safe and that she's thoroughly comfortable with that and has no interest in doing anything that would affect that. So she's sure pushing the abortion defense point a lot. 

Jim Hannan writes:

 Hi Joe, I thought that it was interesting that in the most recent Time Magazine story on the 100 most influential people in artificial intelligence, the only politician in the list is Martin Heinrich. Here's a link to the list and here's the blurb on Heinrich.

Heinrich, an engineer, founded the AI Caucus in 2019.

Reproductive rights appears to be the major issue that is keeping Nella from breaking into big BernCo.

Joe, I wanted to say thanks for your blog. It has been incredibly valuable over the years, keep up the good work. Second, I wanted to say I found the analysis/commentary about the presidential debate by your conservative/GOP commentators to be incredibly lacking and caricature-like. It would have been more helpful to an independent like me to understand their positions. Instead they seem to repeat the same talking points as Trump and the logic just goes around and around,with no progress. Thanks again, Benjamin V. Guevara, JD 

Thanks for tuning in over the years, Ben. We remain committed to exploring all kinds of viewpoints.

HELP THE JOURNAL

Sanderoff

Longtime reader John G. gives us a smile. 

He was disappointed to learn on the Wednesday blog that the ABQ Journal and pollster Brian Sanderoff will not be polling the heated race for the southern congressional district featuring Dem US Rep.  Gabe Vasquez and Republican Yvette Herrell in their first round of polling that is expected to be rolled out this Sunday. They do, however, plan a late October survey on the three congressional races. Opines John G:

Joe, ask Brian Sanderoff how much it would cost to do a poll only of the 2nd Congressional District to see where the race between Vasquez and Herrell is. No other questions other than those needed for this one important race. Then post that dollar figure on the blog for a GoFundMe style call to to action. Count me in for $50. 

Fifty bucks? That's pretty generous, John. I might buy the ink-stained wretches a couple of lunches if they would break open the bank for the poll. We'll have to ask Brian if he's offering any discounts.  

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It was an often unruly and arguably a somewhat unproductive 90 minute plus presidential debate last night but it did check off just about evey major issue facing the electorate. In short, there is no need for any more debates. 

Vasquez and MLG

How important is abortion to Democratic hopes in New Mexico this fall? So important that even Rep. Gabe Vasquez shed his usual caution and showed up for the groundbreaking of a new $10 million reproductive health center in Las Cruces hosted by Gov. Lujan Grisham, one of the nation's leading pro-choice advocates.

Vasquez is the same congressman who has fled the scene whenever President Biden comes anywhere near the state line, fearing that Biden's liberal credentials (and unpopularity) in the southern district would rub off on him.

But what a difference the Supreme Court's rebuke of Roe V. Wade has made. 

In 2022 Vasquez struggled to overcome GOP US Rep. Yvette Herrell, managing just a 1,350 vote win and setting up another tense rematch this year. The Supreme Court ruling came in June 2022 but by then Herrell had already excelled in adorning Vasquez with high negatives.

But that ruling has grown legs. It has supercharged women voters here and around the nation and turnout will be higher in a presidential year than it was in '22. That is especially impactful in districts like Vasquez's where just a slight bump in Dem enthusiasm could be enough to keep him in the winner's circle. 

And the issue is cutting across party lines with many Republican women expressing pro-choice views, making it even safer for Vasquez to be less circumspect in publicly embracing MLG and absorbing the predictable arrows from the GOP that his abortion position, like MLG's, is "extreme."

That Emerson College poll showing Vasquez beating Herrell by nearly ten points is likely an outlier, taken during the hubbub of the national Dem convention, but it does represent the worst case scenario for the GOP.

Their plan to take Vasquez out by forcing immigration, inflation and crime to the top of voters concerns is still alive and Democrats still have to get the vote out.

Still, the true lean of the district under redistricting is Democratic and enthusiasm among Dem women in Las Cruces and ABQ's South Valley, which make up more than half the vote, would be potentially deadly to any Republican.

VASQUEZ AS WEAK

We've perceived Vasquez as a somewhat weak candidate--a perception not unshared by observers we consider astute, but political operative Jake McCook thinks that's too tough on the freshman lawmaker: 

Come on, Joe! Vasquez a “weak candidate with an unsettled past to exploit." Are you sure you weren’t talking about Yvette Herrell? How many times must New Mexico Republicans lose for La Politica to give any serious credit where credit is due? While Herrell has been holding fundraisers behind closed doors, Gabe can be seen across the district meeting with people and bringing their concerns straight to Washington. She won’t even meet with the downwinders to tell them straight to their faces why she won’t push House Speaker Johnson to pass the bipartisan RECA bill. Maybe the 10 point lead (in the Emerson poll) is a validation of Gabe’s hard work, and Herrell’s lazy approach to letting the NRCC do her bidding? 

We're not sure we agree with all of that heartfelt rant but long ago our journalism professors insisted that we give equal time. So there it is. . .

We will say this: If Vasquez wins this race, the 2nd Congressional District will very likely drop off the list of swing districts in 2024, giving him breathing room to be more of the liberal on abortion and other issues that he truly is--and in the process looking and being more genuine.  

SENATE AND ABORTION

Domenici

A similar story is starting to play out in the race for US Senate. When the newspaper offered Sen. Heinrich and Republican Nella Domenici space to make their campaign pitches, Heinrich went all-in on abortion rights and Nella stuck with fentanyl and crime. 

She made a splash when she demanded via a cease and desist letter that Heinrich's campaign drop a TV ad that infers she is in favor of a national ban on abortion when she has repeatedly rejected that position. But Heinrich, pushing the envelope, wrote in his column that he is not backing away from that controversial attack: 

The same forces that led to Roe’s demise are backing Nella Domenici, hoping to finish the job. They’ve handpicked her to secure the majority they need to impose their extreme agenda and ban abortion nationwide, including here in New Mexico. They are bankrolling her campaign, flooding the airwaves with deceptive ads, trying to trick voters into believing she’s something that she’s not. 

That is Heinrich, who has been consistent as they come on abortion, putting up a fence around Bernalillo county, the state's largest and a county that has been voting overwhelmingly Democratic for several cycles. That abortion is his centerpiece shows how well the issue is polling in the cities for the D's. 

CRACKING THE CODE

The Domenici camp has known from the start that cracking big BernCo is the key to an upset. But she is left with the crime scourge to move the numbers. For a variety of reasons--some of them perplexing--that issue has not animated the electorate here as much as might be expected in a town riddled with constant crime. The big tell was the easy re-election of Mayor Keller in 2021 and his so far uninterrupted march toward another victory in 2025. 

Maybe all that changes. Nella was strong when she took on the crime crisis directly, planting herself in the crime-ridden SE Heights with APD and absorbing and reporting frankly on the dismal scenes she encountered, filled with the heartbreak and trauma that crime has inflicted on the city. In her column she said:

To the chagrin of Domenici's supporters, this New Mexico election appears to be increasingly nationalized for the majority Democrats with reproductive rights again soaring in importance leaving crime, the economy and immigration if not in the dust, at least five or six lengths behind.

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Today's court deadline requiring the New Mexico Project to report to the state who gives the PAC money and how they spend it will come and go without any compliance as the group appeals the decision to a higher court. 

That's the word from businessman and politico Jeff Apodaca who tells NM Politics with Joe Monahan that the Project, whose aim is to oppose progressive interests and increase Hispanic influence in elections, will appeal the ruling by District Judge Joshua Allison to the NM Court of Appeals and if necessary to the state Supreme Court. 

We asked the State Ethics Commission (who brought the lawsuit) to testify at the court hearing because we have evidence that they are not following up with progressive PACS that have not registered or filed with the state. But we never got the chance to show that evidence. We're just following what's permitted under IRS regulations. We're a  501 (c) (4). They did not prove that we spent any money on ads promoting specific candidates. We are educating Latino voters on issues important to us and we have the right to say what candidates support our issues. Our donors have nothing to hide but the progressives have a history of attacking donors or companies that don't support their candidates so we want to keep them private.

Judge Allison said in his late August ruling in favor of the Ethics Commission that the Project must register with the state as a political committee and report their donations.

Failure to do so ... frustrates the purpose of the Campaign Reporting Act: to shine light on those who seek to influence our elections. . . The people have a right to know who is paying for TNMP’s political advertisements before they cast their ballots. 

(The full order is here. The Ethics Commission's full motion for the order is here.)

The Project is asking that enforcement of the court's order be stayed as they file their appeal. Apodaca said they want the judge to allow the PAC to call witnesses, including himself, to show evidence they have done nothing wrong, saying the judge did not allow any witnesses at the original hearing.

The Project spent money on ads during the primary election and Apodaca says the group plans to be active in educating voters in the general election but the court ruling has hurt fund-raising. 

We have lost some of our donors because of the damage to our reputation. We plan on being involved (in the November election) as long as the courts don't shut us down but we have to raise additional funds. . . That was the progressive intent all along--to hurt us financially.

Asked about  an April statement he made here that the Project had raised "close to" $1 million. Apodaca now says that number was "what we hope" to raise.

It's been confirmed that the group has received money from real estate interests and our sources inform that oil and gas interests have also been donors but the total amount raised remains unknown.

When forming the PAC earlier this year, Apodaca told us:

Progressives have been attacking Latinos and electing candidates in the last three elections that do not reflect our communities. I give them credit for getting their vote out but their policies have caused more crime, fewer job opportunities and a failure to deliver on healthcare. They are attacking our Latino candidacies, culture and legacy and it's time for us to respond by getting our vote out not just in presidential elections but all elections.   

ANALYSIS AND CONTEXT 

The dominance of progressives in the state's political dialogue has been on the upswing since 2020 but the sticky issues of crime, homelessness and job opportunities remain prominent.

Some of these issues gave rise to a backlash against progressive politicians on the West Coast, such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has moved to a more conservative approach.

New Mexico has seen the same with its Democratic Governor when it comes to crime but progressives have been reluctant to follow her lead. 

The question now is will the progressive hold remain firm or is the Apodaca pushback the start of a move to the center.

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That Emerson College poll showing strong leads across the board for Democratic candidates in New Mexico sucked a lot of oxygen out of La Politica. 

The numbers quickly snuffed out the off the wall speculation that somehow Trump--who has lost two races here--could now be competitive; that the US Senate race was actually tight and that the southern congressional district remains a toss up district when it is now lean Democratic. 

That's a mouthful to digest for even the hungriest of political pundits who now await confirmation of the trends Emerson found but perhaps with less of an enthusiasm gap between the two major parties. 

They will get that confirmation--or nonconfirmation--later this month when ABQ Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff goes into the field. He tells me the first Journal poll (two are expected for the cycle) will be published September 15 with the results of the presidential and US Senate races. 

The main point of discussion--if not contention--about the Emerson survey taken Aug. 20-22 during the Democratic National Convention is over the nearly 10 point lead (50.3 to 40.5%) that Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez held over Republican Yvette Herrell in the southern congressional district. 

Sanderoff has long pointed out the difficulty of polling the sprawling and heavily rural area but in 2022 legislative redistricting added a large swath of Bernalillo county's South Valley and Westside to the district. Combined with Dona Ana county these Democratic leaning urban areas are where more than half the vote will come from in the Herrell-Vasquez contest. And those urban areas are easier to survey.

While few expect the Journal to show Vasquez with a ten point lead, the enthusiasm of Democrats, particularly women for VP Harris, seems to be the wind at his back and giving him a decent lead. 

Vasquez won a nail-biter over Herrell in 2022 (50.31% - 49.67%). He was--by the reckoning of consultants on both sides--a weak candidate with an unsettled past to exploit. 

Herrell has come up some new attack lines over Vasquez's character that voters are not familar with but unlike '22 she now appears to be fighting a wave of enthusiam by Democrats for their party and abortion rights. Vasquez's foibles do not seem as crucial as she might hope. 

A PERMANENT LEAN?

Herrell and Vasquez

Notably the Herrell campaign has not come with any pushback against the Emerson survey but they are badly in need of a reset of the race. 

If the Journal poll shows the battle closer--with Herrell not behind by more than four points--the race will be reheated. If not, the Democratic lean of the district will be affirmed and New Mexico will be on the way to losing its only swing congressional district. 

Sanderoff and the Journal will have an easy time of it with the other races. The Emerson survey has been enough for national and local political consultants to close out the presidential race here in favor of Harris; to put the US Senate contest firmly in Heinrich's corner; the ABQ congressional seat safely in Rep. Stansbury's hands and ditto for the northern congressional district held by Rep. Leger Fernandez. 

But politics is about surprises and what seems assured today can quickly turn. We can't say we're not hoping for some as we settle in for yet another final 60 day campaign stretch. 

SATELLITE INTERNET (CONT.)

More of our continuing coverage now on why the state Office of Broadband, the Legislature and the Governor need to start rolling out high speed internet access much faster in rural New Mexico and do it by utilizing satellite service and other high speed alternatives to laying fiber which is taking years and years and putting New Mexico's kids at an educational disadvantage. Here's reader Dan Warren who has been helping us track developments:

Joe, You are right about Starlink being a quick solution for internet service in rural areas.

I have been very satisfied with the service which I have had for about 1 1/2 years. The internet is fast and being able to make good quality phone calls using WiFi calling is great. 

Starlink has also had the mobile system for RVs which you have previously reported on. Now they came out with a smaller portable system that works using DC voltage and they say you can take it backpacking. You may need to have the bigger home system to get it, but if you do need it, the additional cost is pretty reasonable.

 Longtime satellite internet provider Viasat may be feeling the pinch brought on by Starlink. I used to pay $127 for their mediocre service and now I think they are down to $99 a month. 

Several companies are gearing up to provide cell phone service that will connect directly to a satellite, so you will be able to make phone calls from the middle of nowhere where cell towers don't exist. Here is a link to a story on Space News.

Thanks for tuning in here this week.  

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.    

MLG and Romero

MLG is going through more public education secretaries than J. Lo has husbands. But this time it's not her fault. Really. 

Secretary of Education Arsenio Romero was MLG's fourth. A superintendent of Los Lunas schools before joining the cabinet, Romero is going full-on turncoat against the Governor after raising hopes that he was finally the fella who would start to reshape the state's often failing public schools.

Instead of sticking around and fighting it out for kids who need a fighter, Romero is resigning and making a play to become the new president of New Mexico State University, an institution rife with incompetence at the top and where Romero only recently sat on the school's Board of Regents that will pick the new president. 

The Guv's office said pick one or the other and Romero chose to get out of PED.

Remarked a Las Cruces reader:

Talk about an in your face conflict of interest and yet another brazen display of the unapologetic incompetence that has infected the state's second largest university.

MLG wasn't the only one to fall for Romero who she appointed in early 2023. We also held his hand as he fought overwhelming odds to lengthen the school day in New Mexico, a fight that continues in the courts. 

It was a game-changing play but to Romero it turned out to be just a game. So much for his pledge upon taking office that he was in the struggle to better our public schools for "the long haul."

ALLIGATOR STRIKE ON ROMERO

Readers with inside knowledge of PED were merciless in their reactions to Romero's jumping ship. Here's an example:

Joe, Romero was announced as one of five finalists for the NMSU job but it feels like he’s got the inside track. Given his close personal connections to the Regents and their chief of staff, Adam Cavotta, he will probably land the position paying $500,000 a year or more. 

Until just last year, Romero himself served on the Board of Regents, from 2020 to 2023. Are the Regents doing a backroom deal in selecting him? Is it a conflict of interest? Does it even pass the smell test? The bigger question: Is he qualified? As Secretary of NMPED, he showed no leadership to address failings discovered in 80 plus internal audits. 

NMPED is known to be in a state of internal chaos under his watch. Educational programs run by non-profits and others that are supposed to receive regular and ongoing funds from NMPED (to pay staff and rent) complain that they do not get them because of NMPED’s widespread fiscal mismanagement. That’s all on Romero. 

When you’re already 50th in the nation, how can you let these things happen? And why would NMSU, with all its many well-publicized problems now be handed over to Romero’s incompetent care? Running a university is more complicated than his current job which he shows no aptitude for. So is this a case of old fashioned cronyism?

Romero won't the be the last public servant to act callously and in his own self-interest but his abandonment of the welfare of the children of New Mexico especially stings. He now scampers off to try to gain admission to the rat's nest that has become NMSU's leadership circle. 

Arsenio, for turning your back on the children of New Mexico you are the victim of an Alligator strike. 

Congrats. . . or something.

BOYD'S BEAT

With Labor Day in the rearview mirror the campaign season goes into high gear. Back on the beat after a year on leave is longtime ABQ Journal capitol reporter Dan Boyd. As he preps for election coverage, he notes the lack of competitiveness in so many legislative seats:   

The road to re-election will certainly be an easy one for many lawmakers this year. With all 112 legislative seats up for election, 51 incumbent lawmakers — out of 85 total incumbents seeking a new term (65 percent) — do not have opposition in the November general election. In the Senate, 19 of the 26 incumbents seeking re-election do not have general election opponents. The percentage of unopposed lawmakers is slightly lower in the House, as 32 of the 59 incumbents who are running to keep their seats are unopposed. One of the reasons for the lack of contested races could be New Mexico’s increasing political polarization, as Democrats have claimed nearly every legislative seat in the state’s urban centers of Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Santa Fe over the last decade.

Like the rest of the press pack Boyd is on the hunt for exciting races to cover but changing demographics, redistricting and other factors have combined to make New Mexico essentially a one party state. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.