Speaker Egolf

It's historic and astonishing. The explosion in wealth from SE NM oil production is now projected to deliver to the state an immense surplus that approaches $2 billion, up from the $1.2 billion that was projected only two months ago. In a Sunday budget briefing New Mexico House Speaker Brian Egolf gave me the exclusive news:

With the latest developments we are already at $1.4 billion and don't be surprised if the surplus hits $2 billion. This is an historic opportunity for our state. 

The current general fund budget for the year that ends June 30, 2019 is $6.3 billion. A $2 billion surplus would represent 32 percent of that budget, a stunning amount that Speaker Egolf and oil experts expect will continue for five years.

The oil boom in the Permian Basin in West Texas and SE NM brought about by fracking and other technologies is itself unprecedented. The oil being extracted there is so bountiful it's being being called America's Saudi Arabia. In a democracy like ours the largesse from the bonanza won't fill the coffers of princes and kings, but it will mean vast wealth that can be used for the common good

The numbers are so amazing that even the Santa Fe austerity hawks are bound to rest their wings and let the spending begin.

The entire political narrative of this state is about to be transformed.

THIS NEW ERA

Egolf says this new financial era can give the state an "education moonshot." He sees the budget for kindergarten through 12 rising $200 million in the first year of the surpluses and in the years ahead the hiring of as many as 10,000 additional teachers to resolve a severe shortage. He explained:

We don't have the capacity to immediately absorb this kind of money. We will need teachers' colleges and increased classroom capacity. We need to roll it out over the five years. As for early childhood education funding, which is key to an education turnaround, I see that increasing by hundreds of millions in the years ahead.

In the first year of the budget boom, the Democratic speaker expects the surplus to easily shore up the state's required reserves, fill a hole in government pension funds as well as address shortfalls in Medicaid funding and provide for the aforementioned $200 million boost for public ed.

He says that will still leave hundreds of millions in the upcoming budget year for one time spending on capital improvements, mostly roads and bridges throughout the state:

The Department of Transportation has a long list of projects that are ready to go when the funding is available. That's where my colleagues and I will look first when it comes to infrastructure spending.

The dramatic turn in the state's financial fortunes comes after a seemingly endless decade of gloomy economic news that forced major slashes to the education budgets. In the 2009 fiscal year the state budget (excluding federal funds) was $6.015 billion. A decade later it is only $6.3 billion, not even keeping pace with inflation.

Since the economic implosion struck in 2009 New Mexico has suffered some of the highest unemployment rates in the nation, an out migration of its population (much of which went to prosperous neighboring states), a drop in the national education and poverty rankings, a drug and crime epidemic that has wreaked havoc statewide, especially in the ABQ metro, and an outbreak of child murder and abuse that has swamped the Children Youth and Families Department.

That's the bad news. The exceedingly good news is that the next Governor and Legislature will have the tools--and no excuses--to start the rebuilding of a state that has lost so much of its soul but now at long last can perhaps look forward to brighter days.

A REDEFINING MOMENT

It was a redefining moment when Rep. Egolf went before the NM Oil and Gas Association meeting last week in Santa Fe. It's a group the liberal lawmaker has often tangled with over the years but this time, clearly humbled by the enormity of the surplus the industry is making possible, he thanked them and was in turn applauded.

GOP State Land Commissioner candidate Pat Lyons was on hand and used the moment to reach out to Democrats he needs to win in his race with Dem nominee Stephanie Garcia Richard. His campaign said on Facebook:

Brian Egolf Democrat and Speaker of the House thanks the Oil and Gas industry for the huge budget surplus and commits much of the surplus to education and to add 10,000 new teachers over the next five years. Patrick Lyons is committed to work with the Oil and Gas Industry to ensure that this vision presented by the Speaker comes to fruition. This is a great example of our elected officials working across party lines to do what is best for New Mexico.

Lyons saying he is in agreement with Egolf's spending plans is a clear example of those fiscal hawks resting their wings.

XOCHITL'S SURPLUS

Speaking of surpluses, look at this. Southern Democratic congressional candidate Xochitl Torres Small has just broken the record for the amount of funds raised in a single quarter for a state congressional race. She received a stunning $1.9 million in the three month period that ended September 30. And she's not alone. Many of the Dem races are attracting money from across the nation:

. . .  At least 60 House Democratic candidates reportedly raised more than $1 million each in the third quarter of the campaign cycle that ended Sept. 30, eye-popping sums that defy even the most optimistic of projections. But with Nov. 6 less than a month away, some political observers have wondered publicly whether a candidate could have too much cash.

Well, they'll find a way to spend it. You can count on that. The full federal reports will be released today, including that of State Rep. Yvette Herrell, the GOP nominee hoping to defeat Torres Small.

HISPANIC TURNOUT?

Torres Small has no money worries. That's for sure. But in a race that is hanging by a thread there is always something to walk the floors over. In her case, it is signs that motivating the Hispanic base she needs is an issue.

NO DEBATES


Dems point hopefully to a turnout spike in the very early voting in Dona Ana County. That's where Torres Small must take a commanding lead over Herrell in order to offset the Eastside and score a win. They say it's encouraging but are not ready to say it's a trend.

Even amidst the tidal wave of cash that is washing over Torres Small the Herrell camp doesn't appear to be panicking. As they have for Xochitl, third party groups have been smothering the airwaves on Yvette's behalf. So Herrell's camp has decided that they are not going to risk what appears to be a small lead by debating their opponent on TV or anywhere else.

Apparently they believe facing water attorney Torres Small would only enhance her stature and that debates are too too risky. That might be sound political strategy but it does deny the voters the chance to compare the two contenders side by side.

The race is ranked Lean Republican here although some DC pundits have it in the Toss Up column.
EARLY VOTE COUNT

About 2.5 percent of the electorate has already voted, if you assume the total turnout for the election will be about 600,000 which several political pros prognosticate. Secretary of State Toulouse Oliver's office reports that at the end of Friday 15,697 New Mexicans had cast ballots since absentee and certain in-person early voting began October 9. Those numbers will skyrocket October 20, the first day of widespread in-person early voting.

THE GUV FRONT

On the Guv front the attack ads are coming fast and furious. And they are better produced and more compelling as the consultants hit their stride.

GOP nominee Steve Pearce comes with a solid hit against Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham's service as a Secretary of Health and she in turn gets an effective jab in as she compares Pearce to Trump.

Strategically, Pearce appears to believe he has done what he can in the North and is now concentrating on bringing more votes out in his southern congressional district. A turnout spike there, combined with negative ads that he hopes will dampen BernCo turnout for Lujan Grisham, seem to be his end play. By trotting out Trump MLG is putting a moat around BernCo and Santa Fe to keep Pearce out.

While he has worked hard to soften up northern Dem Hispanic social conservatives she in turn comes with a TV spot that features a northern sheep rancher supporting her. Such ranching is a cultural touchstone in the North that goes back 400 years to when the Spanish arrived there. A recent Republican-financed social media video featured northern ranchers who declare themselves upset about a progressive turn in the state Dem Party.

INK STAINED SUPPORT

The state's three major newspapers are all expected by the political insiders to endorse Lujan Grisham. She snagged the first one Sunday when the Las Cruces Sun-News gave her its editorial blessing and in doing so rejected their area congressman:

Pearce has represented us in Congress since 2002, with the exception of one term. We know that he is a skillful campaigner, well versed in the arts of retail politics. But, as a member of the Freedom Caucus while in the House, Pearce too often took unyielding stances that helped contribute to the dysfunction of Congress. Those stances may have fit with the conservative part of the district that Pearce represented, but are out of step with the state at large.

The race for Governor is ranked Lean Democrat. .

SENATE ACTION

By all accounts the US Senate race is going to be something akin to a blowout for Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich but that doesn't mean it can't get interesting. And thanks to Libertarian and former NM GOP Governor Gary Johnson it did just that Friday night in the first of two debates that also featured Republican nominee Mick Rich.

The hour long affair on KOAT-TV was often turned on its head by Johnson who brought  his now familiar high pitched voice and plaintive calls for Social Security and Medicare reform, He also melodramatically warned of economic collapse if the federal deficit continues to soar and he often violated the time limits and interrupted Heinrich while he was speaking. Johnson's shtick may have been appreciated by voters bored with the race but even as he tried to dominate, he did not win.

WHO WON?

Believe it or not, Republican Mick Rich, who had an uneven debate performance, was the winner, only because tens of thousands of Republicans who had never really heard or seen him at last knew they had a Senate nominee.

Rich gave them what they wanted--a defense of the proposed border wall and a vote of confidence in Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh. Now if the R's could help him get on TV he would have a clear run for second place and maybe help Steve Pearce whose race on the ballot is right below Rich's. Johnson is up on cable TV and digital media and Heinrich has been saturating airwaves since late summer.

As for Senator Heinrich, he was his usual cautious self. As the game days dwindle down he is emphasizing the bread and butter issues that will keep his Democratic base with him--Social Security and income inequality, to name two. His goal now is to reach a majority in a three way race--50 percent--to quash any scuttlebutt that he is losing his electoral touch.

THE BOTTOM LINES

 Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez will appear Tuesday morning  in ABQs Northeast Heights and in Rio Rancho in Sandoval County as he works to increase Dem turnout. Details on attending his ABQ visit here and his Rio Rancho visit here.

Retired NMSU economist Chris Erickson writes of our 15th anniversary on the blog that we're observing this month:

Congrats on the anniversary. When you were getting ready to rev up the Blog I remember you telling me that it was going to be the sort of Blog you read once or twice a week, not a daily thing. You were wrong. I’ve missed very few days over the last 15 years. Thanks for the 15 year addiction.

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Who's got the energy? That's the perennial question when voting time comes around. It's especially intriguing now that absentee voting has begun in the state and it comes right after the tumult over the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court. Will it prompt a wave of Democratic women who don't normally vote in NM's mid-term elections to flock to the polls? Will it energize Trump Republicans in the conservative southern congressional district?

If the "Year of the Woman" creates a blue wave it could make the most difference in the race for land commissioner in which Dem Stephanie Garcia Richard appears to be locked in a tight battle with Republican Pat Lyons. Also, the southern congressional district contest could be impacted where Republican Yvette Herrell is favored but Dem Xochitl Torres Small could pull off the upset if she gets an unexpected bump.

The land commission race continues to be rated a Toss Up. The southern congressional race in our rankings moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican in light of the new national developments.

BEMOANING BRIAN

Our ranking of the race for state auditor as "Likely Democrat" gets some push back from one of the Alligators friendly toward the candidacy of appointed GOP State Auditor Wayne Johnson who is being challenged by Dem Brian Colón;

I disagree with your assessment. I do agree that it should be likely Dem, but it's not. Even the progressive and far left Daily Kos recently ranked the race as a Toss Up. Johnson has made this a race by doing an aggressive job of going after fraud and abuse that has been ignored for years. He's been on the news constantly working on high profile audits that actually impact New Mexicans. He's even matching Colón in fundraising. That's a huge feat given that Colón is a known as a fundraising powerhouse. Colón's candidacy is flawed. He's run for so many offices even longtime Democrats I talk to say, "Not that guy again?” He's the weakest link on the entire Dem ticket. For all these reason, this is a race to watch.

That Toss Up ranking from the daily Kos surprised us because in the early September ABQ Journal poll Colón was at 45% and Johnson at 39%. Also, no R has been elected auditor since 1966. And while they are pretty evenly matched on money, it would seem Johnson will need to outspend Colón with a negative campaign to peel Dems away from him. Johnson, a former BernCo Commissioner and ABQ mayoral candidate, is well known in the metro but this is also a big blue patch that is anti-Trump and that should help Colón. We rank the race Likely Dem not "Safe Dem" because of some of those argument for our Gator, but this one is still Colón's to lose.

GOP SPOOKED

Our blog mentioning that the rumor mill has two prominent liberals as possible cabinet choices should Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham win the Governor's race really spooked the state GOP. They came with this reaction:

Lujan Grisham has allegedly been floating names for potential cabinet nominees . . She’s signaled to New Mexicans that she will make absolutely no effort to work in a bipartisan manner by floating the names of far-left partisan insiders like radical environmentalist Garrett VeneKlasen and corrupt State Representative Bill McCamley.

“If Michelle Lujan Grisham needs a reminder about the dangers of measuring the curtains before votes are counted, she should ask Hillary Clinton,” said RPNM Chairman Ryan Cangiolosi. “Instead of laying out a vision to govern on behalf of all New Mexicans, Lujan Grisham has embraced far-left radical politicians and abandoned any dwindling illusion that she would be a bipartisan leader. Lujan Grisham and her would-be cabinet nominees are cut from the same radical partisan cloth. They would march arm-in-arm as Lujan Grisham leads the state toward bankruptcy.”

So Bill and Garrett don't make any plans yet for those state paychecks, okay?

AD WARS

Reader Janet Blair writes of the ad wars in the race for the southern congressional seat:

I think the prize for misleading ads this campaign cycle has to go to a RNCC PAC ad for (Republican) Yvette Herrell. The spot implies that (Democrat) Torres Small will eliminate employer-based healthcare and send all the premium money to DC with nothing in return. A low-information voter might reasonably be terrified by this assertion. It doesn’t explain that this proposal is  “Medicare or Medicaid for all” and that if implemented could mean even better benefits with lower administrative overhead---as compared to profit-making health insurance companies. I think that is a long way off, politically speaking, but this ad with its lopsided information is totally irresponsible. We now watch TV with the remote in hand---ready to mute these kinds of ads in a millisecond!

And here's some analysis of the race from a seasoned veteran on the Dem side who requested anonymity:

There indeed may be a blue wave, but the Republicans are very supportive of Trump in this district and Republicans feel strongly about immigration issues and guns (hence the Xochitl gun ad).

Yvette easily dispatched Monty Newman in the GOP primary, but some of Monty’s people were not pleased with her treatment of him. Will that result in them not voting in this race? Maybe, but is the number significant? Yvette will get help from Steve Pearce as he needs maximum votes out of this area if he has a chance to win.

There may be a blue wave, but I think Republicans here will stand up for their candidates. That being said, Xochitl may be banking on the fact that this district is 40% Democrat, 36% Republican, 23% declined to state and 1% Libertarian. She is well-funded and comes across as intelligent, articulate and humble. She will need to maximize her vote among Democrats and the “decliners,” especially in Dona Ana County (52,770 Democrats vs. 30,193 Republicans). I still give Yvette the edge, but it may be close.

SOUR ON HEATHER

Heather could get the hatchet. That's the word circulating as Wilson, a former ABQ GOP congresswoman who is now Secretary of the Air Force, is having trouble navigating the Trump White House:

President Trump is peeved with Heather Wilson over her handling of his directive to stand up a separate Space Force in the U.S. military, and he’s considering ousting her after the midterm elections, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Foreign Policy. Wilson recently angered Trump as well as Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, Defense Secretary James Mattis’s second in command, with what is seen as a campaign to undermine the Space Force effort, the sources said.

Not even her Republican friends on Capitol Hill will be able to save her if Trump warms up his "You're Fired" mantra.

BILL'S PEANUTS

We joked of the low dollar amount--$25--for a fundraiser for Dem congressional hopeful Torres Small hosted by former Governor Big Bill who is known far and wide as one of the state's most prodigious fundraisers. That brought this from Joni Gutierrez, a former Dem national committeewoman, who attended the event:

Hey Joe, I agree with you and do believe Gov. Richardson could bring in a crowd at a high dollar event but for crying out loud we are a low income county, in a low income state. Our goal was to have access for our voters to not only see Gov. Richardson but more importantly Xochitl. 

Well, Bill can be frugal when need be. We'll always remember an ABQ South Valley fund-raiser he had for his second run at Governor in 2006 where the price was something like $100 bucks. And for that he served bottled water and peanuts. But he did win, scoring the biggest landslide--68%--in state gubernatorial history.

HAPPY ANNIVERSARY--TO ME

It's been so hectic we forgot to pause and celebrate our 15th anniversary of bringing you New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan. We achieved that mark earlier this month. But it's still hectic around here so let me simply say thank you to all the readers and advertisers who have been supportive of my efforts these past 15 years as well as to my critics who make me better. And join me November 6th for our 30th consecutive year of Election Night coverage on ABQ's KANW 89.1 FM and on kanw.com.

That's a lot of time on the clock and worthy of a final quote for today from author Henning Mankell writing in "The Man from Beijing":

The passage of time was relentless and capricious, and one would lose the battle with it in the end. The only resistance a man could offer was to make the most of time, exploit it without trying to prevent its progress.

Thank you, New Mexico.

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They're spending with reckless abandon now so soon it will be time to hide under our beds to avoid the media warfare from the giant Super PACs invading the state yet again.

When we say reckless abandon we mean it. How else to explain the news release from Emily's List and other progressive groups that they have banded together to spend $1 million on a TV spot and digital ads in support of Dem congressional candidate Xochitl Torres Small?

Sure, you buy both the ABQ and El Paso TV markets and lots of social media but if they actually spend that kind of money on this ad with less than a month before the election it will bring new meaning to the term overkill.

By the way, the spot did not require much research. It's a rehash of the ad that the Democratic Governors Association ran against State Rep. Yvette Herrell, the GOP rival of Torres Small. It slams Herrell over her family's business getting "sweetheart contracts" with the state and not reporting them on her disclosure forms. It also accuses her of using state money to take "lavish trips."

Both charges have been explained in the free media and the ads are not generating any news coverage or a response from Herrell. Will putting a million bucks behind the charges make a difference? Here's the gold plated ad.

There's more crazy spending. The Save the Children Network says it will dole out $415,000 on TV supporting Dem Guv contender Michelle Lujan Grisham. Crazeeee.

That and more is headed your way in the weeks ahead courtesy of the US Supreme Court and its Citizens United ruling that opened the floodgates to this inglorious excess a number of years ago. Like uncontrollable weeds in your garden, it grows and grows.

At the start of the campaign we thought the TV stations might have only a so-so ad year because there was not a competitive US Senate race and only one competitive US House contest. We didn't count on the no limit Super PACS to go overkill. Staffs at the stations ought to be clamoring for a pay raise.

And in this cash-crazed environment it's only appropriate that we shot too low Tuesday when reporting the total spending of the two Guv candidates so far. Michelle Lujan Grisham has raised a total of $7.8 million since the start and Steve Pearce has raised $4.3 million.

MORE SUPER SPENDING

And even more Super Spending. The same Super PAC helping Torres Small is coming with nearly $400,000 over two weeks for this TV hit on GOP Guv nominee Steve Pearce.

It scores him for voting to repeal Obamacare, although the spot does not use that often controversial phrase. It also hits him for wanting to do away with the requirement that insurance companies cover pre-existing conditions, although on his website Pearce says:

We need lawsuit abuse reform, and a ban on discriminating against pre-existing conditions.

Pearce was looking for critical votes in Bernalillo County this week where Dems hope to blow him away in a landslide. His campaign said in a news release:

Congressman Steve Pearce toured Sandia National Lab with United States Secretary of Energy, Rick Perry.

And while the Super PACs we're playing bad cop for MLG, she was playing good cop, releasing her latest TV ad which is a positive take on New Mexico's clean energy potential. Remember when she called the enviro foes of the oil industry "crazy"? Well, she's busy offering olive branches.

This is also the season for the campaigns to start time releasing opposition research on their foes as the first absentee votes are cast and widespread in-person early voting gets going October 20. Take a look at this report that calls out Steve Pearce for questionable ethics, the same charge he happens to be hurling at Lujan Grisham:

. . . Pearce owns two companies that actively lease oilfield equipment to undisclosed customers even as he campaigns to regulate a booming petroleum sector and expand an oil-dependent economy. . .Pearce’s campaign confirmed that the congressman’s businesses, Trinity Industries and LFT, provide oilfield equipment rentals after The AP found corporate registration documents that describe the activities. . . Pearce has reported holdings in Hobbs-based Trinity Industries that were worth between $5 million and $25 million in 2017. . . 

And the predictable turning of the screws on Pearce by the MLG camp:

. . . Despite the 2003 sale of some oil and gas-related assets, and repeated claims to have businesses involved in party rentals, Steve Pearce still has millions of dollars in business with the New Mexico oil and gas industry. Steve Pearce has yet again been caught lying to New Mexicans, while he continues to hide his tax returns. 

Pearce has said he will release his income tax return for 2017 this month.
INTERNET ONLY

Then there's this Internet only ad. It's a strange trip indeed. A PAC financed by oilman and former NM GOP Chairman Harvey Yates puts this 2:30 video up. It features Hispanic Northern New Mexicans who profess themselves tired of fellow Democrats who they dub "ultra-progressive."

The ad doesn't mention any candidates but it's clearly aimed at weakening Hispanic support for Lujan Grisham and building support in the Democratic Spanish North for Pearce. He is among those circulating the video. Also, some of those appearing in the ad are supporters of State Rep. Carl Trujillo, who lost a bitter northern Dem state House primary battle to progressive Andrea Romero. The GOP PAC is taking advantage of that rift.

Because the ad is not on broadcast or cable TV and resonates with mostly older, rural voters not heavily engaged in social media, its impact will be negligible. However, a Senior Alligator of the Dem variety thinks it could portend things to come in Santa Fe:

It does possibly predict the dissent we will see among Democrats at the next legislative session. State Representatives Trujillo and Gonzales and State Senator George Munoz and others may be on to something here. Could they join with Republicans and form an anti-progressive, Anti-#MeToo majority in either chamber? Could there be dissent in the race for state party chair next spring? 

MORE STATEWIDE ACTION

Cockroaches? Is it an ad for Raid? Dem Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver who is running against Republican Gavin Clarkson as well as a Libertarian candidate, shows the roaches getting the shoe crushing treatment and the SOS says:

With the lights on, it's easy to see what needs to get squashed, That's why I've shined a light on dark money and worked to clean up state politics.

Nothing like a big heel crushing scurrying cockroaches to break through the political ad clutter.

Meantime Republican Clarkson is running into a headwind over his service in the Bureau of Indian Affairs in the Trump administration:

Clarkson, then a business professor at New Mexico State University, was selected in July 2017 for a top job in the Bureau of Indian Affairs. As part of his role. . .he oversaw the program that had guaranteed (a) loan in 2010 for the Lower Brule Sioux. . .Clarkson resigned in November, shortly after. . . ProPublica reported about the loan.

ZOMBIES AND ALIENS

Clarkson still seems to be having fun in the race that is ranked Safe Democratic. He accused Toulouse Oliver recently of registering "aliens and zombies" to vote when she was BernCo Clerk.

Chill, Gavin. We can assure you that the only zombies and aliens registered to vote are three candidates who are seeking elective office this year and we aren't telling.

CONSERVING ADS

You want your state auditor to be fiscally conservative, right? Dem hopeful Brian Colón goes that route by putting up the same TV ad for the general election that he used in the primary.

The ad recounts how he "grew up pretty poor" and understands "the value of money because I understand the value of investing in people."

Don't worry about Brian having to use old TV ads. If he needs some help he can call on his BFF Attorney General Hector Balderas who this week reported he now has $962,000 in cash in his campaign account. And that's for a race ranked Safe Democratic. Hmm.

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Michelle Lujan Grisham will easily take the title of top fund-raiser for the 2018 gubernatorial derby. Still, Republican nominee Steve Pearce is not a pauper and if he could find the right message in the final month he has the money to make it count.

The money reports released Monday covering Sept 4 through October 1  ended with $782,000 in cash on hand, compared to Pearce's $1.254 million. She out raised him three to one in the month--$1.1 million to $416,000--but by harvesting his cash Pearce is prepared for the end game financially, if not philosophically.

Lujan Grisham announced her run in December 2016 and so far has raised $7.8 million. The later starting Pearce has raised far less--$4.3 million--but both US House members  have high name ID and strong bases of support so Pearce was not blown out early because of the money gap.

Not blown out but maybe not making as much progress as he would like.

At the beginning of the campaign they teased that there would be something new, perhaps something shocking, but instead of an October surprise Steve Pearce's camp is providing a predictable dish that will bolster his already strong GOP support but may do little to break down the Democratic brick wall in big Bernalillo County that Democrats are relying on to propel Michelle Lujan Grisham into the governorship.

The dish Pearce serves up in his his latest TV ad is Republican comfort food, painting Lujan Grisham's past government service as riddled with corruption and inextricably tied to the corruption tinged years of former Dem Governor Bill Richardson. That was a recipe for GOP success in 2010 when Richardson was still in office and Susana Martinez easily surfed to victory on the wave of scandal. But that was then and this is now.

One problem with the ad is that Richardson doesn't ring the emotional bells he once did. He seems a somewhat distant memory. Perhaps the Pearce polling says otherwise. But after eight years of Governor Martinez the years of Big Bill, when the state and city were on the move, appear to be a high point not a nadir.

The ad relies on controversies while Lujan Grisham presided as Secretary of Health under Big Bill and again cites MLG's involvement with the healthcare firm Delta Consulting that has become the centerpiece in the Pearce effort to cast doubt on her integrity. Large photos of Bill are displayed during the ad (but none of them with MLG) as if it were his name on the gubernatorial ballot.

That worked when he was fresh in the memories of New Mexicans and his approval rating crashed to 33 percent. Voters craved a chance to rebuke him. But since those bad old days MLG has been elected to the BernCo County Commission and three times to the US Congress. Most of the charges--serious as they are--have been vetted (except Delta) in previous campaigns. The electorate is not going to be jolted unless Pearce comes with something new--a true October surprise that was teased but so far has not been delivered.

BILL'S CRONIES

The Pearce ad features four faces who are dubbed "Richardson's cronies" and who the ad says will make a corrupt comeback under Lujan Grisham. While the public at large has no idea who they are the political community is quite acquainted with these four horsemen of the GOP apocalypse. The ad dubs them the  "Richardson Gang" and says they are "behind Grisham's campaign." Here they are:

Gilbert Gallegos served as communications director and deputy chief of staff to Big Bill. He later found work with Rep. Lujan Grisham but left her staff to join the ABQ police department and is not working with her campaign today. Oldtimers will remember Gallegos as a political reporter for the now gone but not forgotten ABQ Tribune.

Bill and Contarino

Dave Contarino was a key member of Bill's inner circle, serving as his political adviser and chief of staff. The ad is on more solid ground pinpointing him as being involved with Lujan Grisham. The campaign confirms he worked for her as a paid consultant in the primary but is not now working for her in a paid position. However, it is well known in political circles that Contarino is indeed involved in the campaign, if not on a paid basis. To that the R's yell: "We told you so!"

Deborah Armstrong is a former cabinet secretary and currently an ABQ Dem state rep who is a BFF of MLG. She served as director of Rep. Lujan's district offices. Together they founded Delta Consulting to provide insurance for high risk patients and won state contracts. Armstrong, an attorney, served as MLG's campaign treasurer but was recently replaced after the Delta story broke. Like Contarino she has influence with the candidate.

Johnny Cope is a Hobbs oilman who made millions and then became a kingmaker in state Dem politics by forming close ties with Big Bill. He donated major dollars to Bill and other Dems and became head of the state Transportation Commission under Richardson. Cope is a colorful figure with a colorful past who has brushed up against he law. A full accounting is here. Cope is not employed by the Lujan Grisham campaign. His name just surfaced, however, as controversy erupted over the selection of a company to run the state's final racino. Take a look:

The chairman of the New Mexico Racing Commission has owned racehorses with two partners in a company that is competing before the commission for a license for the state’s sixth racetrack and slot machine casino. According to a national database of racehorse ownership, Ray Willis, a Roswell oilman who has been on the Racing Commission since 2006, has owned horses with Shaun Hubbard and Johnny Cope, investors in a company proposing a track and casino in the Clovis area. Cope, who made a fortune in oil field-related businesses, served as chairman of the state Transportation Commission under Gov. Bill Richardson.

The Hubbard racing family have been donors to Governor Martinez.

TRAIL DUST

In other news of La Politica this Columbus Day, Libertarian US Senate nominee Gary Johnson is finally getting some air support. It comes from a PAC that supports Libertarians. The TV ad positions Johnson as a fiscal conservative who says while he served eight yeas as NM Governor "our state flourished" and that he prevented "reckless spending," leaving the state with a surplus. Johnson has been polling third behind Dem Senator Martin Heinrich and Republican Mick Rich. The race is now for second, with Johnson threatening to upend major party candidate Rich for the honor who has yet to air TV ads.

YVETTTE VS. XOCHITL

This one keeps hopping. The latest is an internal poll from southern GOP congressional contender Yvette Herrell. It shows her prevailing over Dem rival Xochitl Torres Small by a margin of 49 to 45. Here's more:

Herrell led 49 percent to 45 percent, within the margin of error and 6 percent still undecided, according to a telephone survey of 400 likely voters from The Tarrance Group. The poll was conducted September 30 through October 2 and had a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points. Both candidates are gaining name awareness, with over 50 percent of likely voters saying they knew both of them, according to the poll. Herrell led among that group 51 percent to 44 percent.

Herrell was ahead 48 to 41 in the Sept 7-13 ABQ Journal poll. The Tarrance survey comes after the national Dems have pounded Herrell for weeks over an ethics charge. She has not responded to that ad and this survey may tell us why--it does not seem to be doing much damage.

Torres Small came with a clever ad last week that earned national attention. It showed her out shooting as she positions herself toward the center in the conservative district, but the Herrell camp has some fun with that ad by using the video of Xochitl with her gun against her. In this spot titled "Don't Give Her A Shot," they fire away:

Torress Small has our freedom in her sights. . . bankrolled by liberal extremists. . .Torres Small has gone hunting for Nancy Pelosi's support and they'll shoot down our values together. . .

Herrell is the NRA endorsed candidate and isn't about to let Torres Small poach on her territory. Her ad also notes that Herrell has been endorsed by GOP Congressman Pearce who is expected to run strong in the Guv race in his home district.

The Tarrance firm also polls for Pearce. That they have not released their latest polling on the Guv race tells you what you already know--Lujan Grisham continues to lead.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In a first draft of the Thursday blog we had appointed GOP NM Supreme Court Justice Gary Clingman voting not to allow the Secretary of State to reinstate straight ticket party voting. Actually, Clingman recused himself from the case because he is running for election this year. Straight ticket voting was unanimously rejected by the other high court justices. Clingman faces NM Court of Appeals Judge Michael Vigil in the November election.

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Rep. Youngblood (Sorber. Journal)

Let’s head out to that crowded campaign trail and find out who's making tracks. . .

ABQ GOP State Rep. Monica Youngblood earned her day in jail when she refused to take a breathalyzer test and was charged with and found guilty of aggravated DWI. In sentencing her Wednesday ABQ Metro Court Pro Tem Judge Kevin Fitzwater gave her credit for a day served for the hours she was held when arrested and taken into custody.

The law requires a two day sentence so Monica will have to spend at least one day in the pokey, be on supervised probation for one year and use an ignition interlock in her car for a year. She has been ordered to report to jail by October 19.

Youngblood faces Dem Karen Bash in her re-election bid to her NW ABQ district which tilts Republican. It's hard to see how the Dems can't take this seat back given the humiliating video tape of Monica's arrest, her refusal to take a breath test and her guilty verdict. She has been a tough on crime legislator frequently calling for stronger DWI laws and now she has violated those laws and refused to resign. The charge in the campaign won't be the law as much as it will be hypocrisy.

But nothing is for sure and Bash said after posting a brief Facebook comment that she is not going to use the issue. That leaves the dirty work to the Dem PACS. Based on this statement she made following her sentencing, Youngblood seems to think she has a fighting chance:

I want to thank. . . my constituents all who seem to be supportive of what I have done and how I have handled this.

Well, this will be a fun one to watch Election Night when we take to the airwaves of KANW 89.1 FM to call all the action.

As for that one day in jail for Monica, that shouldn't be too tough on her--as long as they don't have her sharing a jail cell with Jessica Kelly.

A SUPREME CONTEST

He was administered a rare Republican knockout when he ran two years ago for a NM Supreme Court seat against Bernalillo County's popular Judy Nakamura, now NM Court of Appeals Judge Michael Vigil is back for a second try at a high court seat and he thinks this time his chances are much better. Here is his first TV spot. It's a short 15 seconds because Supreme Court candidates who agree to public financing only get about $180,000 for their campaigns.

This time Vigil will be going up against GOP Supreme Court Justice Gary Clingman, the former Hobbs District Court judge who was appointed this year by Gov. Martinez to fill a court vacancy but now must stand for election. And that's tough because Nakumara pulled off a rare feat when she beat Vigil, becoming only the second R since the 1980's to win a high court seat. Clingman is not taking public financing. He reported a cash balance of $60,000 in early September,  including a personal loan of $20,000. Vigil had a balance of $140,000.

BIG COURT CHANGE

The five member Surpeme Court is going to look a lot different come January. You have that battle for the open seat between Vigil and Clingman but also two Justices--75 year old Charles Daniels and 70 year old Petra Maes are retiring at the end of the year. Their positions will be filled by the new Governor from a list provided by the judicial nominating commission. If underdog Steve Pearce were to win for Governor and he appointed two GOP judges to go along with Nakamura that would be the first GOP majority on the high court since when? If that happened, it had to be back in the 20's or early 30's when NM was heavy R.

One other note. If attorney Lujan Grisham becomes Governor she might channel her grandfather, the late Justice Eugene Lujan who was the first Hispanic chief justice of the court serving from 1945 through 1959.

A HEINRICH VET

Senator Heinrich comes with an appeal to veterans in his latest TV spot featuring an army veteran who says the Dem lawmaker "expanded outpatient clinics (for veterans) in Gallup, Raton and Santa Fe."

Meantime, state Dems have been blasting Gary Johnson's Super PAC for filming campaign commercials about NM in Utah:

New Mexicans know Gary Johnson, but his Utah-based Super PAC doesn't seem to know New Mexico. The most notable of the bunch is called "Washington Doesn't Work" and appears to have been shot entirely at an outdoor mall in Salt Lake City.

The PAC may have been shooting ads but none, as far as we know, have yet shown up on broadcast TV here. Johnson is the Libertarian nominee for the Senate and Mick Rich is carrying the R banner.

PANNING GARY

Johnson won some praise from us Tuesday for running a relatively corruption-free, eight year governorship. Of course the Dems aren't going to let that stand. From a Dem Alligator:

Johnson may be free from scandal based on the standards set by Governors Richardson and Martinez, but when he was governor he was held in contempt on welfare reform, and forced special legislative sessions. Not to mention that he promoted and benefitted from the John Dendahl/GOP scorched earth strategy against Democrats, minority voters and Republicans who dared opposed the Johnson agenda in Santa Fe. I don’t think Republican Senator R.L. Stockard and Republican State Reps Andy Kisner and Townsend thought Gary Johnson was very kind when they saw primary challenges after opposing him.

BIG BILL SIGHTING

Big Bill has been spotted on the campaign trail. The former two term Dem Guv hosted a $25 a head fund-raiser for Dem congressional hopeful Xochitl Torres Small in Mesilla last Saturday. 25 bucks? In Big Bill's heyday that number would have had a couple of zeros added but given that Pearce is using Bill as a foil in his corruption campaign against MLG, it's probably best to keep the solicitations on the very low side--at least the high profile ones.

CONSERVATIVE OR NOT?

Dem Guv contender Lujan Grisham took heat over her congressional junkets to Azerbaijan and Puerto Rico. Now ABQ attorney Jeffrey Baker applies some junket heat to Republican hopeful Steve Pearce:

Is Steve Pearce a fiscal conservative? In November, 2012, after a Congressional trip to Egypt was canceled, Congressman Pearce decided to go by himself. He stuck the taxpayers for a $19,525 plane ticket (the Journal found available flights for $2400). You might also check out Stephen Colbert’s July, 2014 segment on a Pearce “fact finding” mission to Central America. Pearce spent a weekend visiting Guatemala and Honduras, and, according to Colbert, spent most of his time in the hotel lobby. Perhaps Congressman Pearce can tell us how this behavior is consistent with fiscal conservatism.

THE BOTTOM LINES

The first TV ad in the ABQ congressional race is finally out. It comes from Deb Haaland, who is far ahead in the fundraising, with her opponents Republican Janice Arnold-Jones and Libertarian Lloyd Princeton lagging.

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The Michelle Lujan Grisham camp is not measuring the drapes at the Governor's office yet. Far from it, as she remains engaged in an intense contest with Republican Steve Pearce. Having said that, the first names are starting to float of possible cabinet picks by MLG should she win the November 6 race that is rated "lean Dem." Those names are environmentalist and recent state land commission candidate Garrett VeneKlasen and outgoing Las Cruces state representative and recent Dem State Auditor candidate Bill McCamley.

No word on what agency VeneKlasen might end up at but the environment or energy and natural resources departments are good guesses.

McCamley's name is circulating in connection with the NM Department of Workforce Solutions, aka, the old labor department. That is an agency deeply important to state labor unions who are backing MLG.

McCamley's auditor campaign was tripped up when he filed a state report that showed he had no income over $5,000 but he later revealed he had received rental income of over $5,000 on a Las Cruces house. He lost the auditor nomination to Brian Colón. He faces appointed GOP State Auditor in the election.

VeneKlasen, the former executive director of the NM Wildlife Federation, ran a high dollar campaign for land commissioner and was endorsed by Senator Heinrich, but Dem State Rep. Stephanie Garcia Richard seemingly came out of nowhere in the year of the woman and took the prize from him. She faces Republican Pat Lyons in the November election.

And if Pearce wins? How about Lujan Grisham foe Jeff Apodaca as a member of the State Investment Council?

Well, the rumor mill really gets going when the leaves start to turn color in an election year.

JANICE'S TAXES

John and Janice

In that under-the-radar ABQ congressional race Republican Janice Arnold-Jones tries to surface some action by releasing the 2017 tax returns of her and her husband, John Jones, who is a GOP candidate for the ABQ NE Heights state House seat being vacated by House Minority Leader Nate Gentry. In making the unusual move, Arnold-Jones challenged Deb Haaland, her Dem opponent, to do the same, saying:

Transparency should not be just another talking point. Advocating for transparency without being transparent, is nothing more than politics as usual. We’ve had enough of that in our state. I challenge Debra Haaland to release her tax return as well.
The challenge didn't last very long. The Haaland campaign said this after it was issued:

Deb will definitely release her taxes. She's a single mom who understands the struggle many New Mexicans face, and her taxes show that. The GOP's tax cut, which Janice Arnold Jones supports, will rob New Mexicans to pad the wallets of the ultra-wealthy. This is a strange publicity stunt at a time when New Mexicans need real solutions.

The Haaland camp did not say when the campaign would release her '17 return. 

Arnold-Jones and her husband showed total income of $183,376. They listed $64,112 in pensions, $24,802 in Social Security and $86,491 in wages. He listed his occupation as a water manager. Arnold-Jones listed hers as retired. The couple paid about $31,000 in Federal tax and $7,412 in state tax on income that after deductions and exemptions came to $159,000. They reported $4,532 in charitable contributions.

The complete return is here.

The couple also reported $9,500 in dividend income of which $1,077 come from General Electric stock. The back story is that GE stock has crashed and burned, its price slashed more than half in the past year, the dividend was cut and it was kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average after being in it for over a century.

Well, Arnold-Jones, 66, never said she was running to be your stockbroker but she may get points for loyalty. She says her first job was with GE in ABQ and she has a soft spot for the company.

NM congressional and gubernatorial candidates have traditionally not released their returns, but Lujan Grisham this year released five years worth of them. Now comes Arnold-Jones with Haaland to follow. Also, Steve Peace says he will release his '17 tax return at mid-month. It seems we are getting a new tradition in La Politica and not a bad one at that.

THE "ASSISTANT MAYOR"

Obama and Lee

That's the new title of the man who is about to join Mayor Keller's inner circle at City Hall, according to the Alligators over there.

That's causing a bit of a stir because the title has never been used before. "Assistant to the Mayor" is the normal nomenclature for various mayoral assistants. But Assistant Mayor Gary Lee, a former assistant staff secretary under President Obama, will not have anyone reporting to him. One of the Gators puts it this way:

He will be bird dogging policy. There are a lot of cats to herd in the administration as the pace picks up, and he has the experience to keep things on track. He helped advance Obama's initiatives and is a serious guy.

Okay, but be careful herding those cats when you're bird dogging.

Lee, the son of Korean-American immigrants, told the WaPo that his hometown is Albuquerque so this will be a return trip home. In 2011 he talked about himself in an interview with the University of Southern California where in 2007 he graduated with a poly science degree. That makes him about 34.

His position will be unclassified which means he serves at the will of the Mayor. Because he is filling a slot normally called "Assistant to the Mayor," the bureaucracy's very sensitive antenna has picked up on it and has tongues wagging over the parameters of Lee's new position. They'll find out soon enough. Heck, Keller probably won't even know until he sees how Lee fits in.

For all you City Hall employees on edge about the Assistant Mayor here's his Twitter account and his Facebook page. But look at them on your lunch break. You never know who's watching.

SUSANA'S FUTURE

So what will she do? That's been a natural question about Gov. Martinez as she prepares to wrap up her final term in office December 31. Insiders claim she has been looking hard for a new gig, but she has announced nothing. However, Susana's hubby Chuck Franco has. The first gentleman told El Paso TV station KVIA he believes Susana will return to the practice of law when her Guv run ends:

He said the governor, formerly the Doña Ana County District Attorney, will likely return to the field of law after she leaves Santa Fe. "She's got it in her heart," Franco said. "You have to really enjoy it to pursue it the way she does. She's awesome in the courtroom. Any type of litigation, she's very good at. I don't foresee that being ruled out of her life. I don't."

Will Susana become a trial lawyer, a group she speaks of with dread and they of her? Well, the pay is good and her once rising star has fallen to the ground. She sports a very anemic approval rating of 35% in the final Journal poll. Then there was her dissing of Trump. That closed a lot of doors to high-profile jobs.

Franco has taken a three month, temporary job with the Dona Ana County Assessor's Office. A former undersheriff for the county, he says he hopes to eventually become administrator of the local jail. Susana's sister and brother are in ill health. She has said she will help tend to their care when she moves back to Las Cruces from Santa Fe.

THE EX-GUV CLUB

Former Governors usual end up doing something after the spotlight fades. Dave Cargo practiced law and ran for political office every chance he got but never caught the magic again; Jerry Apodaca tried his hand at business only to end up lobbying; Bruce King worked his ranch; Toney Anaya, an attorney, got back in that field after being Guv. Garrey Carruthers, an educator, became chancellor of NMSU; Gary Johnson became a professional candidate and Big Bill resumed his globetrotting on behalf of pet causes.

GUN TOTIN' XOCHITL

Xochitl Torres Small, on the trail and seeking an elusive upset in the southern congressional district against R Yvette Herrell, is wooing gun owners with a TV spot that shows her enjoying shooting her gun with her husband. From CBS:

Torres Small is the latest Democrat to showcase her shooting skills in a political ad, signaling to the conservative district she hopes to represent that she's not the kind of Democrat who wants to take away its guns. That's the underlying message in her new ad, "Hunt," which highlights her devotion to New Mexico's public lands. "We know what we need for a shot at a brighter future," Torres Small said in the ad, which depicts her loading and shooting a gun on a hunting trip. "Because out here makes the squabbles in Washington seem small." She even delayed her honeymoon after getting married to hunt with her father and husband. 

Not a bad play but Herrell received the endorsement of the powerful NRA in the GOP primary in which she easily dispatched Monty Newman to take the nomination. And it appears that backing is going to come in handy again.

OTHER OBAMA NODS

We inadvertently left out two of former President Obama's NM endorsements Tuesday. Here they are.

The former Prez also endorsed Melanie Stansbury, the Dem trying to unseat ABQ GOP State Rep. Jimmie Hall in District 28 in the NE Heights and Dem Karen Bash who is running against GOP State Rep. Monica Youngblood, who was found guilty of aggravated DWI and who will be sentenced today.

THE BOTTOM LINES

It being October the political news is coming like a deluge around here, making for longer hours and longer blogs, and that sometimes leads to a few missteps. Thanks to readers for pointing out that in our first draft Tuesday we obviously erred when we said US Senate terms are for four years. Of course, they are six years. And in describing Lujan Grisham we said she would be the "first female Democratic Governor." We left out the key word--she would be the first "female Hispanic Democratic Governor."

Thats it for now, kids. See ya' mañana,

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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