Lujan vs. Denish
Will the real New Mexico Democratic Party please stand up? House Speaker Ben Lujan has called out Lt. Governor Denish for dissing a House approved increase in the state gross receipts tax; Big Bill is expressing worry about the House passed surcharge on higher income taxpayers; President Obama is proposing to hike the tax brackets for top tier taxpayers and some Dems in the NM Senate are against any tax increases at all.

Not that the Dems aren't usually a mishmash in our fair state, encompassing conservative cowboy country, the Spanish North and major urban areas, but with the economic stakes never higher, the fractures seem more severe and maybe even threatening to the state's majority party as it seeks to retain the Guv's office this year.

Speaker Lujan and Denish have never been cocktail partners, but Ben's blast of Di after she said she would not support the half percent gross receipts tax boost--"It is unfortunate that the Lt. Governor opposes the courageous action taken by the House with support from education, health and labor advocates"--reveals the party's frustration over a lack of coherent tax policy in the face of the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression.

For her part, Denish argued: During these tough economic times, the last thing New Mexico families need is a tax increase on all of their purchases, and I won’t support it...

Denish's camp argues her stance insures that the Light Guv does not alienate critical independent votes in the fall election. She does not face Dem primary opposition so the Dems who like the House's tax package can't do much about it--until November.

But Denish was careful not to directly attack the 1.5 percent income tax surcharge Lujan chaperoned through the House and that we think has appeal among middle and low income voters of all stripes. Also, her voice has yet to be firmly heard on increasing state tax brackets on the highest income earners, rates that were dramatically rolled back by Big Bill and the legislature in the 2003 bull market and now thought by many experts to be out of whack in a time when revenues are collapsing.

THE RICHARDSON TAX LINE

Richardson expressing worry over the tax surcharge is the latest in his long line of statements on taxes that break from what the Democratic White House believes and what history may show to be a turning point. Some insiders we speak with think Richardson believes his legacy is inextricably linked to his personal income tax cuts. But he seems to have forgotten the other half of the equation--how he leaves the state positioned for the long term after eight years at the helm.

He could give cover to Dems if he had adopted the Obama tax plan--a slight increase in the top tax brackets as well as an increase for high earners on their capital gains--mainly stock sales--as well as their dividend income. Tax rates on those are at historic lows. Speaker Lujan is in the Richardson camp on those. We await Denish's stance.

Ironically, Richardson appears to be ending his administration in the camp of his longtime rival--conservative Dem Senate Finance Chair John Arthur Smith. He looks at tax increases like a five year old looks at Brussels Sprouts. He hasn't seen many, if any, that he likes.

Republicans on the national level have done a marvelous (or dastardly) job for two decades of demonizing any tax increases for anything, but the wheel of history appears to be turning toward a more balanced approach--cut the fat out of government, but have those who benefited the most from the great expansion of wealth pay more of a fair share of the tax bills.

On both taxing and spending in New Mexico, we are now squarely in the era of no easy choices. The fractures in the Democratic Party over these essential issues shows that the days of reckoning have arrived.

JANICE RADIO

GOP Guv candidate Janice Arnold-Jones will join Doug Turner as the second R hopeful to buy broadcast time for her candidacy. Janice is operating on a tighter budget than Doug so there won't be expensive billboards or TV spots as he has done. Instead, she will take to the radio airwaves this week as R's around the state prepare to pick delegates to their March preprimary convention.

The radio buy is meant to spark interest among party loyalists who will attend those local meetings and then decide in March which candidates will get sanctioned for the June 1 primary ballot. A candidate must get at least 20 percent of the delegates at the preprimary to get that official spot.

Arnold-Jones is expected to come with a bio spot and another on the economy.

NUMBER TWO

How about that low-key but nevertheless quite intriguing race GOP race for Light Guv? Our Alligators and insiders see ABQ State Senator Kent Cravens, '02 Guv nominee and contractor John Sanchez and former Clayton area State Rep. Brian Moore as all likely to get the needed 20 percent of the delegates at the preprimary convention to make the June ballot. They are not as optimistic about the chances of Santa Fe's J.R. Damron.

Sanchez is seen as strongest in the southern part of the state where he became well-known during his Guv run eight years ago. Cravens center of strength is in Bernalillo County and Moore is getting solid support on the East Side.

If all three get on the ballot at the convention, who has the money advantage could be a deciding factor come June 1. Sanchez may be able to self-finance, giving him a financial edge over Cravens and Moore. But if someone has a real strong convention showing that could send money that candidate's way.

KAREN'S CAPER
Rep. Giannini
When freshman Dem State Rep. Karen Giannini was listed as not voting on that controversial half percent increase in the state's gross receipts tax, the campaign alarm bells went off.

Giannini won election to her ABQ NE Heights seat in 2008 over Republican Justine Fox-Young. Some analysts wonder if it was a fluke, considering the huge landslide Obama had in Bernalillo County or whether the seat has indeed gone Democratic after decades under Republican dominance. That the House leadership would let Giannini skip out on a key tax vote indicates that they aren't sure.

Giannini's Republican challenger, former Senator Domenici aide Nate Gentry, has already been spotted going door-to-door in the district. Giannini's absence on the tax hike vote surely caught his eye, too.

THE ART OF BEING SANTA FE

The New York Times came with an extended narrative Sunday of the joys of visiting Santa Fe. (These pieces tend not to to touch on socio-economic conditions). They do this update every couple of years, but this year their travel section piece is especially welcome as the capital city's long-suffering economy would be well-served by an infusion of East coast tourists.

The author's take on approaching Santa Fe from ABQ on I-25:

It’s still one of those approaches, those arrivals, that seems mythical, impossibly grand. The highway reaches away, straight at the mountains, like a long drawbridge into a castle.

Amen.

THE COSS CAUSE
Mayor David Coss
We're not surprised to see the latest poll results from the New Mexican showing Santa Fe Mayor David Coss with a comfortable lead over his two rivals in the March 2 mayoral election.

Even though Coss has presided over the beginning of what appears to be a secular (long-term) decline in the Santa Fe economy and although property crime has gone from a nuisance to often rampant, Coss has responded, if not always effectively, to these new concerns.

Also, from studying news accounts, it seems the mayor's chief rival, attorney and former city manager Asenath Kepler, has been successfully dubbed a "Republican." She is indeed one, but that is about as popular in Santa Fe as canceling Indian Market. Coss's other rival, City Councilor Miguel Chavez, appears too laid back to pose a serious threat.

From the poll conducted Feb. 1-3 among 400 registered voters:

Of the 400 registered city voters contacted, 51 percent said Coss would get their vote if the election were held today. Meanwhile, 27 percent chose Kepler and 8 percent Chavez, with 14 percent still undecided.

SANTA FE OUTLOOK

Looking over the blogging we've done over the course of the Santa Fe' mayor's first term, we find it is mainly about the ups and downs in the economy and property crime. Our long-expressed concerns are shared by Santa Feans who told the newspaper's pollster their two chief concerns are indeed the economy and property crime. Development and growth issues have slipped down the list as the city struggles with its new future.

Coss has few self-inflicted wounds. For example, his administration has not been caught in the ethics net that often snares politicos around here. But if Kepler can't redefine Coss in the closing weeks and loses--Mayor Coss's second term may be more challenging than his first. The heady days of year round tourist-packed hotel rooms are long gone and an ever expanding state government providing good jobs is also a thing of the past. As for crime, the rate remains too high and could worsen unless Coss and his new police chief get tougher.

The "City Different," celebrates its 400th year of existence this year. Watching the woes and challenges of the 21st century play out in the now nearly ancient city held dear by so many here and around the world is painful, but its storied history is a welcome reminder that survival is embedded in Santa Fe's DNA.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Speaker & Guv
State House Speaker Ben Lujan has jolted awake napping taxpayers, prepping a budget for passage today that would trim a measly $71 million from state spending and raises a bevy of taxes by $400 million to fill much of the remainder of an estimated $600 million budget hole. But the Lujan low-balling on spending cuts is already dead-on-arrival in the Senate, signaling the lack of communication between the two bodies.

Talk about changing the subject. Can you believe the deluge of news coverage over that domestic partners bill in Santa Fe?

We know Big Bill, who allowed the measure to be introduced in this budget session, has to love the way it is diverting public attention away from the worst state budget mess in a gazillion years. We bet some of the legislative leadership also does.

Consideration of the bill--which basically would give gay couples the same rights as married couples--is getting dragged out for another couple of days, even though the bill was dead on arrival, just as it was last year.

Duly noting this Governor's laudable human rights record, couldn't this matter have been settled in a couple of hours? Sure, but changing the subject to a hot button topic is a lot easier than dealing with the emptying of the state's cash register and a still deepening fiscal crisis. Isn't it?

ON THE WEB

Taos winter sunset
No voter rebellion in Albuquerque last night. $616 million in bond issues were approved by 72 percent of the voters. Of course, the anti-tax increase crowd can argue that approval of the bonds did not raise taxes and thus are not any indication that New Mexico voters are willing to add to their tax burden to help solve the state's $600 million budget gap. But something is going to have to resolve it and with the thirty day session about halfway through, there are already whispers of gridlock and special sessions. Of course, the leadership will tell you that "magic" will manifest itself in the final days as it always has and a deal will be cut resolving the mammoth deficit.

But the House and Senate remain far apart, and this is not a garden variety budget dispute. It is the mother of all budget battles, with real government jobs at stake. It makes observers wonder why anything else is being given much attention during this session which constitutionally is supposed to be devoted to budget matters.

Just in case there is an end of session calamity we checked with our wall-leaners to find out if that proposal by Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez to borrow millions from the state's permanent funds would need more than a majority vote in the Legislature. No, it would not. A simple majority would suffice to float bonds against the rainy day fund money.

Not that anyone is saying a rainy day raid will be the end game, just that the idea is not seen as far-fetched as it was a week ago. Why? Because House tax increase proposals are truly on a collision course with Senate demands for spending cuts.

OYSTERS AND TAXES

You can see part of the reason why the state is in such a budget mess as you are out and about. Last night at Pappadeaux, a popular national seafood chain, diners were splurging on oysters on the half shell. Well, splurging is hardly the word. They were on sale for $3.99 a dozen and not a few customers were ordering a couple of batches instead of more expensive entrees. That means smaller bills and that means less gross receipts tax for the state.

(We opted out of the cheap oysters and went for the Greek salad and Andouille and seafood soup. Hey, someone has to help the state).

Mark Bernstein, co-owner of the locally-owned Flying Star Restaurant chain, told us recently that a good number of customers are coming through the doors of his restaurants but they are ordering less. That confirms the major and continuing change in consumer spending patterns that is shrinking tax collections and causing Santa Fe solons their biggest financial headache in generations.

RAEL RAILS

Dem Lt. Governor candidate Lawrence Rael is joining his rivals and dumping on Brian Colon for failing to show up for last Friday's Taos County Dem Party debate and Saturday's party convention there. Go ahead, Lawrence, unload.

If you are re going to represent the north, you have to be in the north. I was glad to attend both the Taos debate and convention. If he is truly a statewide candidate, Brian Colon should have been there. I also made it to the Valencia County Matanza he was at on the same day as the Taos convention that he failed to attend. I am very concerned about the needs of all of New Mexico--rural and urban.

We ran Colon's defense of his Taos absence yesterday. Another angle we hear is that Taos County Dem Party Chairman Chuby Tafoya--(yeah, that's one of the great names in state politics) is partial to Rael's candidacy and tangled with Colon when Colon was Dem state chairman.

Whatever the insider baseball, in the absence of any other competitive Democratic primaries, the Light Guv race is providing the major blogging entertainment for Primary 2010. Maybe we should buy some of those cheap oysters at Pappadeaux to celebrate?

WHAT KIND OF FRONT RUNNER?Denish unloaded on Domenici (not by name) at a recent legislative dinner, revealing that she thinks he is the likely nominee. But that is not necessarily the view shared by many Republicans. The party has suffered major division in recent years, making it difficult for any one hopeful to get major momentum going into the preprimary.

ASSESSING THE ASSESOR

Bernalillo County Assessor Karen Montoya will kick-off her re-election campaign this week, but the Democrat may not have a free ride for the Democratic nomination. Guess who might be back? Former Assessor Mark Carillo who served eight years in the post and was term limited before Montoya took over. Nothing official just yet...

THE MEDIA BEAT
Reminds us of that old joke. "The worst thing about capitalism is competition."

FOLLOW-UPS

UNM Regent Jamie Koch was confirmed to a second, six year term--not four years--as we blogged in our first draft yesterday. He served one year of that before winning Senate confirmation Monday to the second term. Koch's complete opening statement before the Senate Rules Committee can be read here. In it, he explains an audit questioning whether all UNM faculty is living up to their required work loads. The faculty gave Koch a vote of no-confidence.

We first spelled the first name of State Senator Dianna Duran (R-Dona Ana & Otero) with only one "n." We did that even after we Googled her name as we blogged of her bid for the GOP nod for Secretary of State.

Do we have a Starbucks deficiency?

THE UNM BEAT (CONT.)

Back to UNM for a moment. It is the kind of tinderbox issue that is going to start landing on the front-door of Diane Denish soon. The presumed Dem Guv nominee is already being looked to for leadership on the issue from blog readers like Sarah Nezzer:

I've sent her (Denish) campaign two emails involving my (and many others) concerns about UNM's hierarchal structure, athletic funding, loss of faculty, and top heavy pay structure. I then asked for official stand on anything having to do with UNM. And she said...well, nothing. I have yet to receive any response. In an economy as hard hit as NM, the fiscal drain of UNM should be a concern to government officials and taxpayers alike. Furthermore, all parents and students of the University should be concerned to see such a fine institution going though such turmoil.

Shouldn't that force be one that is educating students to their fullest potentials? How can that happen when we still are losing faculty to other institutions, and freezing vital staff positions so that our VP's can collect on their hefty salaried positions? I hope that with your constant attention to this issue, and your readers interest, this will become a hot button topic at election time.

We hope it will as well, Sarah. The Guv candidates on both sides have a lot of homework to do to answer the tough questions that will be headed their way in the months ahead.

Slowly but surely the wake up call must be getting heard at Scholes Hall at the University of New Mexico where President David Schmidly presides: If you think you're headed in the right direction in cutting administrative bloat and waste that built up during the late, great bull run in oil and gas revenues, you aren't heading there fast enough.

Not that the Senate Rules Committee rejected the Guv's renomination of UNM Regent Jamie Koch for another six year term--they passed it on to the full senate with only one dissenting vote--but they did finally give Koch some of the grilling the state has been waiting on. Outrage continues to build over overcompensated and over employed administrators at the state's largest university and as the state's budget shortfall approaches the gargantuan level of $600 million for the next budget year.

Koch, a longtime Dem Party powerhouse, was confirmed for another term by the full Senate on on a 31 to 5 vote. Only the liberal wing of the party--Senators McSorley, Griego, Feldman, Ortiz y Pino and Fischmann of Cruces dared cross the old guard and the campaign financial prowess represented by Jamie.

But the contentious hearing was the clearest message yet that political populism might even begin to impact key committee chairmen and a governor who has, according to his most severe critics, allowed UNM to run like a pit bull without a leash.

As for Koch, our Alligators game it out this way. If Dem Diane Denish, a longtime ally of Jamie, is elected Governor, Koch could very well decide to resign from the regents, sparing her a big headache and letting her appoint someone who doesn't carry past baggage into a future administration. Jamie, being the political pragmatist he is, might even call that a good compromise.

TRACKING THE JUMPING R'S

Tracking what Republicans are running for what office, or thinking about running for something, has been like watching jumping beans, but with the deadline to file nominating petitions for statewide office just days away--Feb. 9--we finally are getting a handle on who will run for what statewide offices other than land commissioner which has had several candidates for a number of months.

For starters, Santa Fe attorney Marco Gonzales who told us (and we blogged) that he would seek the GOP nod for Secretary of State apparently has decided not to go forward. Instead, Otero County State Senator Dianna Duran will go for the post. She is a former Otero County Clerk who has deep knowledge of the SOS office. Dem Mary Herrera is seeking a second four year term.

A couple of politicos from Dona Ana County have been recruited for statewide offices. Former Dona Ana County Treasurer Jim Schoonover will be the GOP choice for state treasurer. He will go up against Dem incumbent James Lewis who is seeking a second four year term. Earlier, former DEA agent Errol Chavez of Las Cruces switched from the land commission race to the contest for state auditor.

Here's a name that you old-timers will find familiar. 34 year old Matt Chandler, district attorney for Roosevelt and Curry counties, is the R's pick to run for attorney general. Chandler's father is Caleb Chandler, currently the vice-chairman of the Curry County Commission, a former Clovis police chief and former three term state senator who ran for Congress against Republican Joe Skeen back in '82. Matt Chandler was unopposed for re-election in 2008. He will face Dem Attorney General Gary King who is seeking re-election to a four year term.

That's kind of interesting. Gary's dad was the late Governor Bruce King. Who said having a famous father is a headache? Well, maybe Freud or someone but they weren't running for anything.

WHAT'S IT MEAN?

My first take on this is that the R's fielding two Dona Ana County statewide candidates could help in getting some more vote for the GOP out of that Dem county. That could be good for Republican congressional hopeful Steve Pearce who is challenging incumbent Dem Harry Teague. Chandler helps in the same way on the conservative east and Duran will help with the base GOP vote in the SE.

This line-up seems to make more compelling an argument for an ABQ Guv candidate, but don't tell that to Susana Martinez of Las Cruces, the only one of the GOP Guv hopefuls from outside of ABQ.

(Hey, fellow conspiracy buffs. Was this GOP ticket designed for a guy from ABQ with a famous name whose dad was a US Senator? Only the Illuminati knows for sure.)

BLOG POWER!

A lot of Republicans rib us for raising Cain when the party was coming up short in fielding a GOP candidate for ABQ Mayor last year. Shortly after we blogged of the looming misstep, GOP Chairman Harvey Yates, Jr. stepped on the accelerator and helped recruit RJ Berry who won in an upset. So, Mr. Mayor, if you feel like thanking us sometime, that's fine. In fact, about that ticket for driving while talking on the cell phone....

And we were back on the R's backs this year, giving Harvey and GOP executive director Ryan Cangliosi a mountain of grief for not getting the statewide ballot filled in with R candidates. Looks like they are going to do it--barely. My, oh my. The things you can make happen on this little ol' blog :).

MONEY LINES THAT MATTER
Sen. Bingaman
You hear about "money lines" all the time. Well, here are some real money lines from US Senator Jeff Bingaman on the President's proposed budget and how it would impact funding for Sandia National Labs and Los Alamos Labs:

I think it is very very favorable to our state. The overall increase is in the range of 12 to 12.7 percent of increased Department of Energy funding that would be coming to New Mexico--much of it to our national labs--both Los Alamos and Sandia. Some of that is weapons related. Some of it is for general research and development...but I think all of that is...good news for New Mexico.

Good news if the President's budget makes it all the way through Congress untouched. That's unlikely, but any increase in lab funding will be welcome as lab employment levels stagnate or actually retreat. Our D.C. analysts say a key question is how much of any new funding would go for construction---temporary jobs--and how much would go to adding permanent staff at the labs. Another question: how far will the proposal to "flat line" next year's budget get which would mean no increases for the labs?

And for the numbers lovers, Senator Tom Udall came with actual figures on the proposed funding:

A $393 million budget increase for LANL, bringing the requested total for the lab to $2.217 billion. The request includes increases for programs to secure our nation’s aging stockpile, for nuclear nonproliferation efforts and to increase readiness in technical bases and facilities; A $364 million increase for Sandia, bringing the requested total to $1.49 billion....

That totals $3.707 billion in proposed funding for the two big federal installations. And that's what you call real money lines.

THE FIERY FIGHT

Ortiz y Pino
More intensity in that Dem race for lieutenant governor as we begin a new month and move ever closer to a critical mid-March test for the five contenders. Perceived front runner Brian Colon was taking hits over the weekend from both left and right, even as he hosted the opening of his ABQ headquarters.

The camp of ABQ Dem State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino, the most liberal of the five hopefuls, was boasting of their candidate's win in a straw poll in Taos County Friday, conducted after a forum for all the light guv candidates, except Colon, who did not appear. Ortiz y Pino polled 16 votes, Joe Campos and Lawrence Rael each received 11 and Linda Lopez only one.

Taos is a breadbasket of Dem liberalism, so Ortiz y Pino's win can't be blown out of proportion, but neither can it be ignored. If he can coalesce the left-wing of the party statewide, he could garner the needed 20 percent of the delegates at the March pre-primary convention to get an official spot on the June 1 primary ballot. If he does that, he might then be able to raise the money to compete, instead of struggling to keep the lights on.

Ortiz y Pino operatives said the Taos straw vote proves that Colon, who has raised the most money among the hopefuls, has a long way to go before he takes the light guv prize. It follows an earlier straw poll in Sandoval County that had Colon winning, but with Campos placing an unanticipated strong second place showing.

As Jerry squeezed Brian on the left, Campos was coming at him from the center and right. His camp smacked Colon for failing to show up at Taos, saying it reveals his weakness in the Spanish North. They were spinning that if Pete Domenici Jr. is the GOP nominee, Hispanics there could waver and that native son Campos, a state representative and mayor of Santa Rosa, could help presumed Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish hold down the fort far better than Colon.

COLON COUNTER PUNCH
Colon & Me
While Colon was being treated like a punching bag, he was throwing some punches of his own. Reports came in from the recent Valencia County Dem ward meetings where delegates were selected for the state pre-primary convention. They had Colon getting a strong showing in his home county. And Colon's campaign organization is repeatedly putting together smoothly run events, while the candidate is not prone to taking naps.

As for Rael, he started with a head of steam months ago, but has not had much to say lately. The first time candidate, say insiders, is trying to find his sea legs in this stormy campaign. But his straw vote showings are respectable and his head remains above water.

ABQ State Senator Lopez is all but out of the game, now getting trounced in two straw polls and getting nuked in the press for getting a part-time job with Bernalillo County that her foes say was politically motivated.

If you call it a four way battle--as we do--there may be room for three of those four to pick up 20 percent or more of the delegates at the pre-primary. Insiders say this Thursday's ward meetings in big Bernalillo County where 40 percent of the delegates will be chosen for the March pre-primary will tell us more about where this race stands. For right now, the action is hot and heavy.

WILL THEY COOK KOCH?

They've been waiting on this one for a a while. The confirmation hearing of University of New Mexico Regent and longtime Dem Party powerhouse Jamie Koch goes before the state Senate Rules Committee this morning. It's been a year since Big Bill reappointed Jamie to a second four year term, a year during which storm clouds got even darker over Koch's head. Both the faculty and graduate students gave him votes of no confidence. The university itself has also been bedeviled by scandal in its high-profile athletics department, vociferous criticism over its administrative spending and whether the place has become a political stomping ground instead of an isle of academia.

Bill decided to reappoint Koch for a second four year term to the regents, but he had him step aside as president of the panel. Those opposed to Koch are hoping that the Rules Committee rejects his nomination, but insiders counting noses say Koch is quite likely to win there and again when the full Senate takes up the nomination. But we'll wait and see.

It will be interesting to determine if Senators have taken their legislative oversight chores seriously and ask the tough questions of Koch. The lay down attitude towards UNM among key Roundhouse leaders is getting increased attention because of the huge budget deficit. The school's employment of a wide array of staffers with political ties to the Governor has raised question of whether UNM President David Schmidly presides over a politicized institution that has lost sight of its fundamental mission and created sinecures for dozens of politicals.

DEBLOATING UNM

One of the biggest issues for critics is what they see as the administrative bloat at UNM. State Senator Eric Griego has come with a resolution questioning the six figure salaries of some 20 UNM vice-presidents. Why do we have so many Veeps and what of the $4.5 million paid to them each year? Can we start cutting? Those decisions can't be made directly by the Legislature, but they do have the power of the purse and can strongly signal what change they desire. Griego's memorial has no force of law. The UNM administration maintains it is cutting back on its administrative costs.

LAB BUDGET BREAK?

Many eyes in New Mexico will be on Washington today as President Obama releases his proposed budget. Reports say he will ask for a 10 percent boost for nuclear weapons funding which could translate into increased budgets for Sandia and Los Alamos Labs and perhaps more employment:

The administration will seek an initial $600 million increase for nuclear weapons programs in the proposed 2011 budget it submits to Congress on Monday. That would increase annual spending on those programs to almost $7 billion.

There is a long way to go. Congress will take months to decide the budget for the year that starts Oct. 1. This year's budgets for Los Alamos and Sandia have been flat.

HEINRICH VS. BARELA
Jon Barela
ABQ GOP congressional candidate Jon Barela did not meet the fund-raising expectations for the fourth quarter that were set for him--at least around here by the Alligators. Attorney Barela, trying to unseat freshman US Dem Congressman Martin Heinrich, raised $113,000 in the fourth quarter. ( He reports spending about $40,000 in the period. Here is where it went.) Insiders were saying a move toward the $200,000 level would have better positioned Barela for inroads against Heinrich.

Barela reports having $215,000 cash on hand, but Heinrich, who raised $267,000 in last year's final quarter, now has $834,000 in cash.

One thing Barela does have going for him is the unsettled political climate. The ABQ district was Republican for forty years before Heinrich won it in 2008, but Barela is going to have to really rev up his engines to get the buzz going.

TEAGUE VS PEARCE

Meantime, the buzz is so loud in the southern congressional seat, you need ear plugs. Republican Steve Pearce adds to it by reporting he outraised Dem US Rep Harry Teague in the fourth quarter of '09--about $156,000 for Teague and $252,000 for Pearce. but Teague still has more cash in the bank--$885,000 to Pearce's $569,000.

Teague getting out raised Peace in the fourth quarter may be a small warning flag, but Congress was in session much of the time. Let's see what happens in the first quarter of this year to see if there's a clear trend. Pearce also outraised Teague in the summer quarter when he kicked off his candidacy. It goes without saying that this race is hotter than a stolen tamale.

FROM INDIAN COUNTRY

Reader Matthew Tso informs:

Former Navajo Nation Vice Chairman Marshall Plummer will likely give incumbent Democratic Public Regulation Commissioner Carol Sloan a primary challenge for District 4. Plummer was a popular Vice Chairman who served with former Chairman Peterson Zah. Plummer is currently in charge of government affairs and community relations at the Four Corners Power Plant...

Thanks, Matthew. That's a big name challenger who joins a lengthy list of other Dem hopefuls. This particular PRC race is attracting a lot of candidates because Commissioner Sloan, a former McKinley County clerk, faces charges for assault and battery after she accused her husband of cheating on her with another woman in Gallup. Sloan allegedly assaulted the other woman at her home.

MO CHAVEZ UPDATE

Meanwhile, KRQE-TV is coming with the reason why State Insurance Superintendent Mo Chavez, whose division is under the PRC, was placed on paid administrative leave. The station says it has learned that a female employee has filed a harassment complaint against Chavez.

BACK TO INDIAN COUNTRY

Why does it take so long to get the state capital outlay funds that go for projects In Indian Country to get spent? It's a hot topic again as lawmakers look for $150 million in stalled capital outlay projects to cancel and use the money to resolve the deficit of upwards of $600 million. State Senator Linda Lovejoy says getting the money spent that has been authorized for Indian Country projects is often delayed because of a nightmare bureaucracy:

The Navajo Nation's governmental process is enormously complex and time-consuming because it not only must deal with the federal government where projects involving land is involved, but must also deal with 3 states and 11 counties in those states where capital projects are involved...

Lynda says many of the projects being considered for cancellation are for basic human needs like running water and electricity. If so, legislators will be sympathetic, but can Indian Country Senators Lovejoy, Munoz and Pinto give us some guidance on how the "enormously complex" task of getting these projects moving can be simplified and expedited?

HOW MUCH PORK POWER?

The latest figures show there is still some $1.4 billion in capital outlay stashed in state bank accounts waiting to be spent. The legislators are looking at cutting $150 million of that to help plug the budget hole. But there is mucho resistance. The reason? Many of them are convinced these projects are vital to their re-election prospects and they don't want to cancel them for fear of losing votes.

We brought this up with a posse of Alligators at one of the local bistros the other night and the consensus was that capital outlay--or pork as it is sometimes lovingly labeled--has more of a political impact in small, rural areas of the state where a new project is very noticeable. But in the large urban area of ABQ, maybe not as much as ongoing construction and neighborhood change is more rapid and spread out.

Senate leader Sanchez has proposed taking money from the state's $13 billion in permanent funds to fix the budget, but why do that when you have all this capital outlay--much of which has been stalled for years--and more of which could be used to cover the gap?

It's about having the political will to do it, and perhaps it's asking too much of politicians. But unless they agree to kill at least the $150 million in capital outlay they are talking about, it will be another reason any tax increases are even more strenuously opposed in the the final days of this session. Taxpayers whose purses and wallets are shrinking want to see the excess cash sopped up before Santa Fe comes knocking on their adobes for more.

YOUNGBERG MEMORIAL

Here's the details on the memorial service tomorrow for former ABQ GOP State Rep. Eric Youngberg who died last week at 43.

The service will be held on Tuesday, February 2, at 2:00 pm, at First Presbyterian Church, 215 Locust Street, N.E, in Albuquerque. Immediately following, friends and family are invited to the Albuquerque Country Club. In lieu of flowers, the family request that memorial contributions be made in Eric’s name to the Albuquerque Academy or the Explora Children's Museum.

Governor Richardson will lower state flags from sunrise, Tuesday, February 2, through sundown, Wednesday, February 3, in honor of former State Rep. Eric Youngberg.

Meanwhile, the House seat that Youngberg held in the Legislature (Dist. 23) is getting attention. Two Republicans are trying to put it back in their party's column after Youngberg was defeated by Democrat Ben Rodefer in 2008.

Paul Pacheco, who will soon retire from the ABQ Police Department, says he is seeking the GOP nod for the slot as is Republican Tom Molitor. It should be a spirited GOP battle primary for this district on ABQ's West Side and in Sandoval County. Pacheco is already calling Molitor a "California transplant."

Rep. Rodefer will seek re-election for the Dems. No word yet on whether he will get primary opposition. The seat is considered in play for either a Dem or an R.

SMOKEY SANCHEZ DAVIS

He had one of those only in New Mexico political names. "I.L. "Smokey" Sanchez Davis. And, as we recall, when he ran for the state House back in the day he managed to get the entire name on his yard signs. He also got himself elected to the House. Smokey Sanchez, 80, died last week. He also worked with the Bernalillo County Assessor's Office and retired from the federal housing department. By the way the "I" stood for Ishmael. We don't know what the "L" stood for, one of the reasons it makes him a memorable character of La Politica...

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

The Great Recession is not done with New Mexico. Not by a long shot. The floundering economy here took another hit as official stats put the jobless rate for December above the psychologically important 8 percent mark. In the ABQ metro, observers were stunned that the unemployment for December soared to 8.7 percent, another modern day record. No wonder city government is grappling with a projected $54 million deficit for the budget year that starts in July.

Even the government town of Santa Fe is plumbing new jobless depths. The rate there has skyrocketed to an unheard of 7.2 percent.

Retail, manufacturing and construction--in other words the NM private sector--is especially getting hammered--while the feds add jobs here for the census.

The political impact of all of this is obvious. If you are in power, you are in dangerous waters. Lt. Governor Denish, the soon-to-be Dem Guv nominee, will be the top target of the R's who will try to stimulate populist anger to move independents and some Dems to their column. With each uptick in the jobless stats, their chances improve.

Denish will have to plead the same case as Big Bill--that the unemployment debacle is a national problem and present a forward looking job creation platform. But anger and negativity could be difficult to assuage.

New Mexico Catholics pray to Saint Anthony when seeking a job. Di is hoping those prayers start getting answered--and soon.

THE R POSITION

For the Republicans, the value of their Guv nomination goes up with the number of unemployment checks mailed out. How will they react? By trying to clear the field for one strong challenger? Or with an orgy of cannibalism that could weaken their chances ala the Wilson-Pearce US Senate '08 primary?

THE LONG VIEW

The state reports "it will be a number of years" before unemployment here returns to pre-recession levels of 3.5 percent. A number of years? How about a number of decades?

That point was driven home when Governor Bill announced this week that a $1 billion solar plant would be built by a a Spanish company in Guadalupe County. And how many permanent jobs will result from that plant when it is up and running in a couple of years? Try 75.

We are trying to get the total number of jobs lost since we reached the pre-recession low, but the state says comparing December '09 to December '08 we lost over 25,000. The point is that while 75 jobs are more than welcome, solving this unemployment dilemma is going to be like using a step ladder to climb out of a hole that's a mile deep.

Not to pooh-pooh the plant. For a change, the state says it is not giving away the store with cash incentives to get it to locate here, but in this economic environment we would be remiss not to express concerns about the company being able to secure all the necessary financing for the project.

WORKING A WAY OUT

Let's not throw in the towel on the private sector's ability to regenerate itself and get the jobs meter pointing up again faster than expected, but the systemic collapse is of such severity we aren't counting on it. That's why the comments of NM Dem US Senator Tom Udall following Obama's State of the Union struck a chord.

Remarking on the president's proposal for a three year freeze on all discretionary federal spending, Udall said:

Federal spending can have a big impact on New Mexico. I want to see the details. We're going to scour this budget when it comes out and make sure New Mexico's protected.

We touched on this briefly in a past blog, but it bears repeating. While working for and waiting on a revival in the private economy, our state may want to reexamine its strategy for attracting federal dollars. The national labs and military establishment are the foundation of the modern state economy. We are a natural for more of that, but we are also right for renewable energy investment and as a location for more federal offices and installations that our lobbyists and congressional delegation might be able to identify.

As Udall indicated, protecting the labs and military from steep cuts will be job one for our federal congressional delegation, but playing offense and going after additional federal dollars is becoming more urgent as thousands of New Mexicans descend into the misery of unemployment, or just give up and get out of here.

BULGING READER MAILBAG

The Rail Runner evokes a lot of emotion--both pro and con--as we've been finding out all week as readers debate the news that only a small amount of the cost of running the commuter train between Belen and Santa Fe comes from fares.

Reader Walter Lamberson, who grew up in NM and now lives in San Francisco, is up first today, responding to lobbyist Domonic Silva of Las Cruces. Silva took issue with bicyclist and Rail Runner supporter Diane Albert and pointed out how much he was paying in gas taxes for his lengthy commutes to Santa Fe. Here's Lamberson, one of many disagreeing with Dom and defending Di:

Domonic says he spends $100 per trip from Cruces to Santa Fe on gas and of that, $40 are gas taxes. This can’t be right. The current average price of “regular” gas is $2.70, and only 37.2 cents of that is tax (24.4 cents being federal, and the rest state tax, one of the lowest state fuel taxes). All told, to drive nearly 600 miles and burn 37 gallons of gas into our air, Domonic pays only $13.78 in taxes, not $40.

Thirty-seven cents a gallon does not pay for the network of roads or the highway patrol much less the cost of time lost in traffic and contribution to pollution...Moreover, each year Domonic spends thousands of dollars on gas, and what is not taxed flows to Saudi Arabia and other oil-producers. Diane, on the other hand, saves thousands of dollars, cash she can spend in New Mexico on something that doesn’t pollute...Her commerce can create jobs outside the gas station. I think Domonic should be grateful!

And reader Marc South is back with a second bite out of this apple:

Joe, not to rain on the parade twice in one week, but anyone who thinks that their gas tax covers the costs of road construction and maintenance is not to be trusted with either motor vehicles or sharp objects. That the gentleman in question is a lobbyist only makes it scarier. There is a ton of research out there (USDOT, Texas Transportation Institute, even NMDOT) that has talked about how the funding generated out of the gas tax isn't remotely adequate to do what needs to be done.

And we have this from a reader identifying themselves as "Gator Al Schue." Clever. He says the bicyclists have it right:

This is Gator Al Schue. Cars and trucks in this country don't even come close to paying for themselves when one considers the real costs of the US power projection into oil rich parts of the world that keep our gas 'cheap.' We only think $5 a gallon is expensive because half the state is two paychecks away from welfare. That, and we insist on tooling around the state 15-20,000 miles a year in behemoths that get crappy mileage.

By contrast, we don't need a trillion dollar military operation--or the blood of our brave young men and women in uniform--to keep the price of bicycles down.

Paul Gessing of the conservative Rio Grande Foundation sent us this link that asserts 90 percent of highway costs have been paid by highway user fees. He said this of Albert's blog:

While I too would like to see broader use of toll roads, what she fails to mention is that user fees (gas taxes, licensing, registration, etc.) pay more than 90% of the cost for roads....

FINAL TRIP AROUND TRACK

Let's give the last words on this latest Rail Runner debate to the man in charge of the train. Dewey Cave, interim director of the Mid-Region Council of Governments (MRCOG), blogs in with a defense of the criticisms of the Rail Runner heard here this week:

All forms of transportation are heavily subsidized. The Rail Runner...was put to the ultimate test when it was placed on the ballot for voters in the four-county area to decide whether they wanted to increase their taxes to pay for the operations of the train...The voters overwhelmingly it...When was the last time New Mexico voters got to weigh in on whether to spend money on a road project?

(Our Rail Runner) investment pales in comparison to other southwestern cities that are working to provide the very same thing. In Utah, like Central New Mexico, they too will end up with about 100 miles of train service, but at a cost of $1.6 billion dollars and it will take 17 years to complete...

The MRCOG was the lead agency on the Rail Runner and delivered the fastest start-up of a commuter rail project in the country in the last 20-years. From the get-go, we made a decision that the service was going to be privatized and that is exactly what is happening, Herzog Transit Services provides maintenance of equipment and track as well as operations, including fare collection...

Speaking of fare collection, the recent blog accounts citing 13-percent of revenue from fare box collection only gives part of the story...BNSF and Amtrak are paying for the use of the track, which means that actual revenue generated to offset operational costs is closer to 20%. Again, when you look at other young commuter rail systems, we are headed in the right direction.

We cannot however, predict and always account for a downturn in the economy. The tax is not generating what it traditionally had provided in the past, but hopefully will rebound with the economy...

With regards to fare collections, we have been very aggressive in making adjustments; we've added ticket agents; our conductors now assist agents where needed; discounted tickets can be purchased on the web site, and MRCOG conducts random audits to verify that every rider has a valid ticket..Our audits have demonstrated that abuse is not widespread, and moreover that our agents are efficiently performing their duties. With the help of State Police, this week we are pursuing prosecution of a few people who were producing fraudulent tickets.

...The Rail Runner benefits New Mexico families, giving them an alternative form of transportation during these hard economic times. And don’t underestimate the benefits of having fewer vehicles on the road; a better quality of life, a cleaner environment, and a safe way to travel...Perhaps this is why we have more and more communities wanting to know when we’ll extend Rail Runner service north and south, so that they too can enjoy the economic value the train brings as well as the positive impact on their lives...

ONE FOR THE ROAD

A reader who is an economics professor writes to us of the forced closure by federal regulators of of NM-based Charter Bank:

It is unfortunate and unfair that the small banks are now being held to (rigorous) standards while the big ones get off easy because they are 'too big to fail' and with executives laughing all the way to the bank.

Well, with the confidence in banks these days, maybe the bankers are laughing all the way to their mattresses where they hide their bonuses. But seriously, it is unfortunate about Charter failing, but stopping the bleeding early is better than having a gusher later.

EX-REP ERIC YOUNGBERG DEAD

Upset friends and colleagues of former ABQ State Rep. Eric Youngberg sent our blog cell phone ringing Thursday night as they reported the death of the lawmaker who served three terms in the state House. Details of his passing were sketchy at blog press time, but several callers said he was found dead at his ABQ home. (Here's a report from the Saturday newspaper.)Youngberg celebrated his 43rd birthday this past Tuesday. He represented Dist. 23 on ABQ's West side and parts of Sandoval County.

The affable Youngberg was well-liked on both sides of the aisle at the Roundhouse. Fellow ABQ GOP State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones was elected the same year as Eric--in 2002--and had this reaction to his passing:

Eric will be remembered as a legislator for his great intellectual capacity. He was both an attorney and a CPA. Very impressive. I am shocked by the news.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. From Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan reporting.

Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
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Sanchez and the Noose
Quick! Someone call Santa Fe County Sheriff Greg Solano. It looks like a hanging party is forming over at Ft. Marcy Park for State Senators Michael Sanchez and Mary Jane Garcia. But before the mob rushes them to the hangman's noose--or worse--lights them up like Zozobra, let's have the good sheriff calm the crowd so we can take a reasonable look at the senatorial duo's proposal to raid the state's rainy day funds to balance a state budget that is crashing and burning faster than the aforementioned Old Man Gloom.

We broke the news to to you November 2 of Majority Leader Sanchez's plan to propose that money be lifted from the Permanent Funds when he dropped the news to us over a plate of chicharrones at Barelas Coffee House. Now that he and Majority Whip Garcia have actually proposed to take $500 million from the $13 billion we have stockpiled and use it to to fill the budget gap, the squeals are louder than those made by the pigs when the chicharrones chefs went to work on them.

Look, Sanchez's plan will be getting as much support as a state ethics commission with real teeth (very little), but if the 112 lawmakers get to gridlock and can't pull the curtain down on this 30 day Santa Fe shindig, the table is going to get crowded with stuff you never dreamed of.

We have about $13 billion in our Permanent Funds, making them among the largest of any state in the USA and a sublime legacy to the gray beards of a hundred years ago who set them up. But there may come a time--not now--when the political consensus shifts and the crowd agrees it really is raining and that these funds will be subjected to more liberal use.

But right now Santa Fe's budget cutting blades are so dull, Emeril Lagasse would ban them from his kitchen. The public wants to see budget blood flow before it looks at the weather report to see if it is raining and time for a raid.

Sanchez and Garcia would not take the money and run. They would float bonds against the borrowed money, hopefully to be paid back to the permanent funds with tax revenues from an improved economy. That's a gamble--a big one--but with a radicalized "no taxes no matter what" business lobby and an equally radical "tax everything that moves" far left lobby, ideas that were once unthinkable are now looking as normal as an egg on top of an enchilada.

BLUE IN THE FACE

We and others have been talking ourselves blue in the face about this budget crisis and what we see as very reasonable proposals for its resolution that don't resort to breaking into the state's piggy bank or immediately throwing a couple of thousand state employees out into the streets. Let's go to the videotape:

Approve that one percent surtax on the wealthiest taxpayers who benefited the most from the Late Great Bull Market; hike the gross receipts tax by a quarter cent for three years raising $100 million a year; cut $150 million in capital outlay funds that are likely to never be used anyway; continue the hiring freeze in state government; forcefully address the bloated administrative structures at the state's universities (Hello, UNM) and public schools; eliminate hundreds of political appointee positions (live by the sword die by the sword); and encourage early retirement from eligible state workers.

AND THERE'S MORE

If necessary, furlough state employees who make above $35,000 a year, but make the furloughs longer for the highest paid; examine the millions of dollars in legal contracts doled out annually and start cutting; eliminate some of the dozens of tax credits that benefit few but cost all of us; emphasize tax credits and breaks for small, job creating businesses; raise the capital gains tax rate a modest amount. (Sorry, Speaker Lujan. You are mistaken to say there are no capital gains to tax because of the recent stock and real estate crashes. There are millions in assets that have been held for decades, have appreciated greatly and are now being sold and taxed at historically low rates). Finally, save some $7 million a year by eliminating the double dippers, including the ones hired by Big Bill, not just future dippers.

Well, you get the idea. It's like making a list of your favorite movies or books and you just can't stop. On second thought, when talking to Santa Fe it's more like repeatedly banging your head against the wall.

LEADERSHIP ANYONE?

The danger of the Sanchez/Garcia permanent fund raid is obvious--once you start smoking crack even Betty Ford can't make you quit. But the state has been investing some of these funds in what appear to be politically connected schemes so voluminous and so harebrained that the federal grand jury looking into them doesn't have time for a bathroom break.

This reckless abandon in how our permanent savings was at times invested is a much more serious threat than the comparatively innocuous Sanchez proposal that would actually spend the money for state services, not for betting at the permanent floating crap game devised by the Wall Street casino croupiers.

Unless we soon get real leadership in this 2010 session from this Governor and Legislature--leadership that forces the lobbyists on all sides of the equation to get their feet out of the cement and compromise on spending cuts and modest tax hikes--it won't be the necks of Sanchez and Garcia in that hangman's noose at Ft. Marcy Park--it will be those of Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico.

HE'S OUT
Candelaria
There are plenty of folks running for Bernalillo County Sheriff this year, but ABQ Police Department Commander Conrad Candelaria won't be one of them. After telling us he was getting in, he called to say he is now getting out. It's been a roller-coaster ride for Candelaria who was considered a top prospect to replace Darren White when he left the Sheriff's office to become ABQ's public safety director. But the county commission appointed sheriff's department veteran Manny Gonzales, bypassing Candelaria who ran into a buzz saw when his foes questioned the conditions of his discharge from the National Guard. It was a technical matter, but it hurt Candelaria who was also high on the list of possibles to become the next US Marshal for New Mexico. That post is filled by the Prez, but Conrad withdrew his name. We're still awaiting a Democrat to be named to replace Gordon Eden. Meanwhile, Candelaria says he will soon retire from APD.

There are three Republicans running for Sheriff and there are a number of Dems besides Sheriff Gonzales also seeking the primary nomination. We'll gather that list for you soon.

Pete Domenici
Pete Domenici Jr. had a frog in his throat and let out a loud cough seconds after being introduced Tuesday at his major media debut of Campaign 2010, but after a bout of initial nervousness he seemed to find his footing and obeyed the #1 rule of a political front runner--do yourself no harm.

The 50 year old attorney, scion of famous US Senator Pete Domenici, bantered for two hours with 770 KKOB-AM radio host Jim Villanucci and a variety of callers to the conservative 50,000 watt talker.

Domenici was a lawyer through and through. He was cautious, conservative and given to pauses that were rapidly filled by Villanucci who did his best to help along the political novice with the inherited celebrity status.

Domenici Jr. breezed through the contemporary conservative issue check list, but he put out some moderate twists that had him looking past the June 1 primary and to an eventual face-off for the Governor's chair with presumed Dem nominee Diane Denish.

The most interesting was when he demurred on condemning the issuance of drivers licenses' to undocumented immigrants. New Mexico is one of a handful of states with such a law. He said he wanted to study a "two-tier" system that would deny such licenses' to some, but not all immigrants. Like his death penalty position--he is for it when a law enforcement officer is killed, but not necessarily for other murders--this license position would tilt the New Mexican Republican Party in a more moderate direction just like Pete's dear old dad did in his heyday.

Domenici made no obvious faux pas, but he did admit to not having voted in the recent ABQ city election. He said if he had voted he would have cast his ballot for Republican RJ Berry because he knows him personally.

TOP ANALYSTS ANALYZE

The first test for Domenici and his four Republican rivals for the nomination comes in March at the pre-primary convention where you must secure 20 percent of the delegates to get an official spot on the June 1st primary ballot. Domenici is expected to be among those to pass that test, but we wanted to make sure our dubbing him the new GOP front runner was indeed justified, so we checked with some of our veteran analysts for their thoughts on his first major media appearance. We intentionally went to Democrats to avoid a GOP partisan bias and hopefully get a clear eyed view of what is now an exciting GOP Guv contest.

Longtime Democrat and pollster Harry Pavlides, whose first campaign work was for 1966 Democratic Guv nominee Gene Lusk, described Domenici as "lawyerly" and said "he answered the questions effectively."

He showed he is not a fly-by-night candidate, that he can sit in the hot seat. He is the favorite, but not yet the prohibitive favorite. He has more hills to climb. ButI am becoming more concerned about the political climate for Denish. I think Domenici is the likely nominee and John Sanchez is positioned to win the lieutenant governor nomination. That's a pretty solid combination. The Hispanic vote in the north with that ticket looks more problematic for Diane.

We also asked talk radio pioneer and veteran politico Mike Santullo for analysis. The first New Mexico political campaign he covered was the 1972 US Senate race in which Pete Domenici beat Democrat Jack Daniels, the father of current Lt. Governor Diane Denish. Mike came with this:

Domenici is the definite favorite for the GOP nomination. His name insures that, but he has not closed the deal. He needs more salt on his tail and needs to pump it up. His appearance was lackluster, to the point of boring. But these are issues that are more relevant for the general election. I still see Allen Weh as a threat and am watching to see if Doug Turner's outsider campaign starts to come on.

PAIN FOR JANICE

GOP analysts tell us that ABQ State Rep. Janice Arnold Jones has been hurt most by Domenici's entrance into the race this month. Democrat Pavlides said he still sees the candidacy of Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez as having life because she is the only outside of ABQ candidate, but he is perplexed over how she ultimately manages to beat Domenici.

Domenici the Younger reminded the audience of his father's popularity in rural New Mexico, saying when he visits towns where his dad's reputation precedes him "they treat me like a celebrity."

A Martinez operative came with an amusing analysis of Domenici’s maiden radio interview that echoed Santullo. It was one line: “Zzzzzzzzz.”

Oh yeah, now they got us wanting more.

MUDDYING UP PETE

Domenici is an environmental lawyer and when he announced his candidacy the Dems immediately accused him of being a friend of "big polluters." He tried to soften that up by pointing out that he has sued insurance companies to make sure pollution sites were cleaned up. But the Dems environmental attack dominated a good section of the broadcast and if Pete Jr. is the nominee, we would expect to hear more of that as well as any help he achieved in receiving federal contracts from his once powerful father.

The more callous Alligators called Domenici's radio debut an "idiot test," meaning a lot of people who knew nothing about him--except that he had a famous father--wanted to know if he had the brains to make the run. Domenici easily jumped that low bar, but his foes will make sure the bar is set much higher as we inch ever closer to that crucial mid-March pre-primary.

TURNER'S TURN
Doug Turner
There had to be some chuckles when a radio spot for GOP Guv candidate Doug Turner popped up in one of the commercial breaks during Domenici's first radio appearance. The candidate also posted the ad on his Web site.

Expectations for Turner have been low--very low--because insider R's think he is too moderate to appeal to the conservative dominated pre-primary delegation, but Turner's persistence, his many billboards that dot the ABQ area and his continued travels are giving insiders pause. They also note the environment is similar to 1994 when Turner worked for Gary Johnson who won the Guv trophy on a throw the bums out message.

Johnson made the official ballot at the '94 pre-primary by one delegate vote, but he went on to win. Turner is truly a man who hopes that kind of history repeats itself.

DOWN THE BALLOT

The R's are finally starting to fill out the down-ballot races with the February 9 filing date now rapidly approaching. They announced Tuesday that Errol Chavez, 60, will give up his bid for state land commissioner and instead seek to become the GOP nominee for state auditor. The Dona Ana County resident, a retired DEA agent, is expected to be the only GOP auditor contender which means he would face off with Dem incumbent Hector Balderas in November.

And Santa Fe attorney Marco Gonzales, a former Senator Domenci aide, will be the R's pick for secretary of state. No R has won the position in 80 years, but getting a Northern New Mexican on the ballot could help the R's keep down their losing margins in that heavy Dem area. Gonzales, 42, a litigator with the Modrall Law Firm, lost his bid to become the R's nominee for the northern congressional seat which was won by Dem Ben Ray Lujan in 2008.

New Mexico politics has these fascinating intersections, and Gonzales gave us another when we chatted him up via cell phone. He said his father, Jose Gonzales, is the brother of George Gonzales who is the father of NM Democratic Party Chairman Javier Gonzales. That makes for some interesting family reunions.

Incumbent Dem Secretary of State Mary Herrera will face off in November against Gonzales. She has promised to have a Web site that improves campaign finance reporting up and running by the June primary. The Gonzales candidacy may put a little pressure on her to step on the gas, even though no R has won the SOS position since 1928. Still, with the Massachusetts Senate upset still fresh in the air, no incumbent is taking anything for granted these days.

BLOG BILLBOARD BATTLE

Looks like we started a blog billboard war in that already spirited contest for the southern NM US House seat featuring Dem incumbent Rep. Harry Teague and former GOP Rep. Steve Pearce. Not that we ever intend to stir controversy :).

Anyway, it started innocently enough when we ran into Teague in Santa Fe last week and joked with him about putting up a billboard in conservative Hobbs promoting himself with his liberal leaders--House Speaker Pelosi and President You-Know-Who. So what happens? The National Republican Congressional Committee makes up a mock billboard of the trio and sends it it to us to further rib Harry.

Now, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, also reading the blog from D.C., turns the tables and blogs in with its own altered billboard image--posted here today--that features Pearce with his old allies--George Bush, Dick Cheney and Tom Delay. It blames them for the economic downturn that the R's are trying to pin on Harry. Here's their spin:

With Pearce’s reckless fiscal record, including growth of the federal deficit by $2.3 trillion and support for the economic policies that got us into this mess in the first place, it’s no surprise Pearce and his Republican friends are trying to change the subject.

We're digging this sparring, but what keeps us up at night is that someone comes with a poll showing one of these candidates blowing the other out of the water and killing the campaign buzz. Please politicos, no public polling on the Teague-Pearce until at least July--unless its really, really tight. We've got a blog war to run around here.

RIDING THE RAILS

Let's take another ride on the Rail Runner today after yesterday's blog that analyzed the political risks for the Dems that the financially troubled commuter train from Belen to Santa Fe poses. Reader Marc South in Alamogordo picks up the story:

Joe, you said: "The shocking news that the commuter train from Belen to Santa Fe is only generating about 13 percent of its revenue from passenger fares only deepened the anxiety."

Why is this shocking? If you look at public transportation across the country (especially if you exclude NY/Boston/DC/Philadelphia) 10%-15% of revenue through the fare box isn't unusual. It's not unheard of for transit systems to occasionally address the question: "Is it worth collecting fares? Do we collect more than it costs to collect them?" Generally, the answer is yes, it is worth collecting the fares, mostly because charging something prevents abuse of the service.

But I wasn't here when the RR was first proposed and approved. Was it bandied about that the amount of funds generated by the fare box would pay significantly more than 15%? Someone should have done their research...

And what about our former legislator's suggestion that the Rail Runner be privatized? Well, reader Bob White informs:

The former legislator's comments about the need for private management are a little off target...The conductors and collectors are in fact employees of Herzog Transit Services. I agree with his observations with the staff on the trains, but it was not always that way. When the service first started the staff were generally older, and much more professional in performance. As they have hired younger staff, the performance has deteriorated. I have no issue with privatization, but it cannot be assumed it will solve every problem. The history of private corrections in NM is living proof of that...

And a longtime blog friend, Diane Albert, an intellectual property lawyer and Bicycle Coalition of New Mexico President, comes with this take on the public subsidies needed to keep the Rail Runner chugging:

Let's make I-25 between Santa Fe and ABQ a toll road. Because as a bicycle commuter, I am tired of subsidizing those motor vehicles on the highways who do not pay their way!

Sounds as if you better be in shape if you're traveling anywhere with Diane.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Glad to have you with us today. Join me here Thursday for news on the Bernalillo County Sheriff's race and more.

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This is the home of New Mexico politics and chronicling it from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

Email your news, comments and Alligator applications.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
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Labels: ..The

Denish on Rail Runner
More Democrats are getting worried that the NM Rail Runner is going to emerge as a symbol of government incompetence in the fast approaching race for Governor. The shocking news that the commuter train from Belen to Santa Fe is only generating about 13 percent of its revenue from passenger fares only deepened the anxiety. That's only about $3 million of the train's $22 annual million operating budget, leaving taxpayers on the hook for the rest. Public transit is always subsidized, but this gap is especially wide, making for a potential hot potato campaign issue. Independent voters may be particularly upset.

We're hearing from lawmakers and capitol observers concerned that efforts to really trim the fat from state government in this budget crisis is, in some cases, amounting to musical chairs. The Governor announced with fanfare that he would let go 59 of his political appointees, but he would not release the names, raising suspicions that they could be placed in other positions without anyone noticing. Now our sources say that appears to be happening. From deep on the inside comes this:

I understand that the previous Deputy Secretary at the Workforce Solutions Department--Theresa Gomez and the Administrative Services Director (ASD) Lloyd Garley--have both been moved to “Temp” Division Directors with end dates of June 2011 and are being funded from federal stimulus dollars. In addition, the department has brought on another Deputy Secretary--Teresa Casados---and are in process of advertising for a new ASD. No cut backs here.

The Workforce Solutions Dept. formerly known as the labor department, has been a notorious political dumping ground for time immemorial. Our political system is set up to hand out a certain amount of patronage, but with a $600 million state budget shortfall, cries are being heard from far and wide for reality to be recognized.

New Mexico's soft private economy doesn't help. State government jobs are among the most valued. They offer the benefits and salaries that the private sector here too often doesn't. That makes political opposition to real reductions stiff indeed. But hard choices beckon in this ravaging recession. Are the Governor and Legislature, for example, going to permit service cuts to the disabled and genuinely impoverished while continuing to favor a political class that treats a government job as a lifetime sinecure?

New Mexico needs a knock down, drag out fight over its future employment and salary priorities. But budget watchdogs fear it may instead get a game of musical chairs or a version of kick the can down the road.

BANKING ON IT
Rep. Egolf
At first blush the proposal from Santa Fe Dem State Rep. Brian Egolf to move the state's money out of Bank of America and into banks and credit unions based in NM makes a lot of sense. It could amount to $1.4 billion that could be used by our community banks to stimulate local lending.

But Egolf had some cold water splashed his way only hours after the proposal made the rounds. New Mexico's Charter Bank, based in Santa Fe with ABQ and Rio Rancho branches, had been shut down by federal regulators for being "unsafe and unsound." (Depositors did not lose money, The Feds turned the bank over to Beal Financial Corp. of Texas and all branches will be open today).

The shuttering of Charter again points out the pitfalls of managing the state's accounts with any kind of agenda other than absolute safety. Look at the trouble we got into when the State Investment Council started doling out money from the billions in our Permanent Funds for investments in risky private sector hedge funds and the like.

Our local banks deserve a shot at managing the state's cash accounts, but Egolf's proposal--while appealing on a populist level--is not a no-brainer. The Charter Bank fiasco, brought about by questionable commercial real estate loans, drives home the point that bank safety at all levels can't be taken for granted. Fortunately, Egolf's measure calls for studying the feasibility of dividing up the state's cash in local banks and not mandating it. The Charter Bank closure and the collapse of First Community Bancorporation shares (it has 40 NM branches) make safety, as bankers used to say in the good old days, "the prudent course" to follow.

Shine by Kiki
Has it come to this? The chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee shining shoes at the Roundhouse to raise money to resolve the state's mammoth budget deficit? Well, we don't know how much ABQ Dem Rep. Kiki Saavedra gets paid for his shoe shining duties, but he looks like he knows his stuff and every bit helps in chipping away at the giant deficit. He's caught in this snapshot buffing the shoe leather of capitol employee David Ortiz. Now, if Kiki could just get some of those 19 University of New Mexico vice-presidents pulling down $4.5 million a year to help out at the shoe shine stand, we just might make a bigger dent in the $600 million deficit.

Come to think of it, Kiki, if you have to axe those Veeps, you might arrange some small business loans for them. Those Roundhouse lobbyists like to keep their Gucci's nice and shiny.

PETE SENIOR ON PETE JR.

Former US Senator Pete Domenici was not exactly brimming over with enthusiasm in discussing the GOP Guv run of his son, Pete Domenici Jr., when he discussed the entry with the ABQ Journal's Michael Coleman. The interview reflects the mixed signals that we heard about Pete Jr's entry from certain members of the Domenici family and former Domenici staffers. Pete Sr. said he pointed out the pitfalls of a Guv run before Pete Jr. pulled the trigger, but now that he is in he is supportive. The interview raises questions on how active the former Senator will be in raising money on behalf of his 50 year old attorney son. Our guess is as the race heats up, the emotional ties will take over and Pete Sr. will get more into this campaign than might be expected.

There's also a weird psychology angle at play here. Pete Sr. ran for Governor in 1970 and lost to Bruce King, his only state election loss. Now the son wants to accomplish what the father couldn't. Just some food for thought or something. And then there's the issue we previously hit on--the legacy of Senator Domenici and how it will be impacted by a rough and tumble campaign.

RACE ACTION

St. Pete Jr. is the odds-on favorite of the GOP. He is all name, and no substance, but that doesn't seem to matter to the unwashed masses here. They think that Daddy Domenici (former US Senator Pete Domenici) saved them from economic bankruptcy, and they think that St. Junior will be able to do the same. Alan Weh, and the rest of the Republican field might as well save their money, or return their contributions, because they're all on that road to nowhere and they all have something to fear, and it's big, out-of-state GOP money.

But don't think that (Democrat) Diane Denish is totally out of the loop when it comes to raising money. I know that the Democrats will fight tooth and nail to get her elected. The Dems will also attract big names and big national money. The only ones going to benefit this Governor's race will be the people the candidates have to buy media time from. hey have a helluva fight on their hands with St. Baby, and they know it. It's going to be a wonderful year, politically.

HOW TO GET IT DONE