New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

There's still hope for Heather Wilson, but Steve Pearce is in the lead in the first media poll to hit the streets in the fight for the GOP US Senate nomination. It's Pearce 49% and Wilson 46% in the SurveyUSA poll conducted for KOB-TV Monday through Wednesday of this week among 439 registered NM R's. Back in January, a NM Republican Party poll also had the rivals separated by three points (38%-35%), with Pearce again on top. The margin of error in this poll is 4.8%.

Insiders have been saying they believe Pearce has the edge in this race, positioned as he is as the most conservative candidate. Also, turnout could favor the southern NM congressman. That would put Pearce ahead a couple of more points in the polling. Last Friday Senator Pete Domenici refused to make an endorsement in the contest, a major boost for Pearce as Wilson is a longtime Domenici favorite.

SurveyUSA makes this point about their poll: "Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released six months ago, Pearce is up 12 points. Wilson is down 10 points."

Pearce leads by 22% when you combine the north and the south--58% to 36%. Wilson takes Bernalillo County by 25 points--61% to 36%.

The key for a Wilson comeback is big Bernalillo County. "SurveyUSA estimates that 40% of Republican voters will come from Bernalillo County. The larger the turnout from that county, the better Wilson does."

The poll will be greeted with open arms by NM Dems. It shows their soon-to-be Senate nominee, Tom Udall, trouncing Pearce in a hypothetical match-up 60% to 36%. He beats Wilson 61% to 35%. Wilson has been arguing in campaign media that she is the stronger choice for the Republicans, but this poll gives her no help at all on that score.

The complete poll is here.

DUNN GOES NEGATIVE

Aubrey Dunn has come gunning for Ed Tinsley and Monty Newman. He hit with negative ABQ TV Thursday night as the battle for the GOP Southern congressional nomination escalated. Dunn attacked Tinsley for having a soft stance on illegal immigration and attacked Newman for being a tax raiser while Mayor of Hobbs. No word on the size of the TV buy, but Alligators checking in here said Dunn's move feels like the right one at the right time.

Alligators and insiders following the action report they see Tinsley and Dunn fighting for the lead with former Mayor Newman breaking into third place with that big TV buy from the National Association of Realtors. Tinsley is now nuking Newman in the mail as he did last week to Dunn. But Dunn's TV attack raises the stakes. Will Tinsley turn the cheek or strike back?

Leaving the aggressive Dunn to his own devices seems dangerous.

TV TALK
McCamley & Teague
Media sources say southern NM Dem congressional hopeful Bill McCamley has bought $16,000 in TV time for a four day run starting today for his first ad on ABQ TV. You can see it here. Hobbs oil man Harry Teague has been up for several weeks with what looks like about $100,000 per week. Polling shows Teague has established himself as the clear frontrunner, but undecideds remain high. We checked and it appears there will be no TV debates in this contest.

McCamley is limited in what he can put on the air. His cash on hand at the end of April was in the $200k area. Teague is independently wealthy and has put nearly $700,000 of his money into the race. His campaign says if he thinks it necessary the candidate will come with more in the final weeks.

The campaign of Dem congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich says his initial TV buy is for $50,000 over four days, not the seven days we initially blogged. They say his TV for the rest of the campaign will "be sizable."

The campaign of Michelle Lujan Grisham said Friday night her first TV spot will air this weekend. Our media mavens previously reported she had bought time for the final week of the campaign. No word on the size of the buy, but Grisham had less than $100,000 in the bank at the end of March.

WIVIOTT'S WALLET
Wiviott
He has the money, but does he have the time? Northern Dem congressional candidate Don Wiviott has come with yet more personal money. The fresh $100,000 the Santa Fe developer has put up this week means he has loaned himself $1,090,000. Still, few voters are aware of any major differences between him and Dem frontrunner Ben Ray Lujan and the clock is now Wiviott's enemy. With that kind of money, why didn't he come with much heavier name ID TV in April, and start establishing negative points on Lujan when early voted started May 6? He may now come with an all out nuclear attack, but has he established the credentials to launch such an offensive without suffering a backlash? Wiviott could forego a negative finish and position himself for a future race. If he goes negative and fails, it will be his first and very likely last bite out of New Mexico's political apple. But what if it works? That's why politics is an art not a science, isn't it?

E-mail your news, comments and campaign news, and thanks for tuning in.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Lujan & Udall
The Udalls of Arizona have put the welcome mat out for the Lujans of New Mexico and it could mean a US House party for Lujan the Younger. Stewart Udall, 88, a founding member of the American environmental movement, Secretary of Interior under President Kennedy, former US Rep from Arizona and father of Northern NM Congressman Tom Udall, said Wednesday from his Santa Fe home that Ben Ray Lujan is the Democrat who should succeed his son in Washington. It was a crystal clear message to Udall supporters and stole much needed oxygen from the candidacy of wealthy Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott.

"I have decided to endorse Ben Ray Luján for the third congressional district race. Although there are fine people running in the race, Ben Ray stands out in the crowd. Why? Because others are forced to talk about what they hope to do in the future, while Ben Ray has an outstanding and proven record on the environment and of standing up for the people of New Mexico."

That's pretty heady stuff for the 35 year old Lujan, a public regulation commissioner whose father, NM House Speaker Ben Lujan, is one of the state's premier power players.

The politics of the Udall endorsement make perfect sense. To become the next US senator from NM Tom Udall will need a huge northern majority. With a Hispanic Dem on the ticket working to get the vote out, Udall will directly benefit. Tom Udall is unable to endorse in a contested primary, but in this case, Dad is much more than second best.

It's not all politics. Ben Ray has also received the nod from the Sierra Club, Conservation Voters NM and environmental State Senator McSorley, securing the trust of a voting bloc that self-described "green" builder Wiviott was counting on. You have to believe that Stewart Udall is pretty comfortable in his skin about Lujan or, politics or not, he would not be putting at risk his own hard-earned reputation.

Lujan is on his way to taking the Dem nomination in the North, but there is still one formidable obstacle--Wiviott's money and a possible negative campaign. He has loaned his campaign nearly $1 million. He can do whatever he chooses. But if your Ben Ray Lujan and have the character reference of Stewart Udall, revered by liberals in NM and across the nation for his life's work, you have an insurance policy that is paid in full.

DARREN BLASTS BACK
White
A cornerstone of the Darren White for Congress campaign is that he quit his job as head of the Department of Public Safety in protest of Governor Johnson's proposals to legalize drugs. So it was no surprise that White's campaign reacted angrily to our Tuesday blog in which a reader said White was actually for Johnson's drug plans before he announced his opposition. They supplied a quote from a pro-drug legalization publication which we linked to and which you can read by scrolling down The campaign of the Bernalillo County Sheriff hit back hard:

...Our opponents have been...trying to reinvent history with respect to Darren White's position on Governor Johnson's push to legalize drugs. Unfortunately for (Dem congressional candidate) Heinrich, the quote...is not the earth-shaking controversy he is so clearly hoping for. Rather, this is a...flagrant disregard for the truth..That identical quote...was reported by the Associated Press in October of 1999... Like the original story on this issue, this AP story noted White's opposition to drug legalization. White's view has not changed and he continues...to make the point that enforcement by itself will not stop drug use. White supports additional measures such as prevention, education, treatment, and sentencing alternatives...

A White supporter e-mailed in a 2002 news report from the ABQ Journal buttressing the argument that White ditched Johnson over the dope issue.

"Gov. Gary Johnson has waded into the Republican primary election race for Bernalillo County sheriff, but not for the candidate who once was his Cabinet secretary for public safety. Johnson wrote a fund-raising letter on behalf of candidate Marshall Katz, one of five Republicans seeking the office..."

Well, we griped this week about the low-key ABQ congressional campaigns. Now, it looks like we skipped right to the general election.

TO THE TUBE

With primary voters set to swarm to the polls in big numbers for the Saturday opening of early in-person voting, Martin Heinrich is putting up his first TV ad today. You can see it here. It is a soft-sell, broad-based approach, mentioning Heinrich's support of an increased city minimum wage, his environmental work and his working class parents. Our TV insiders say it appears Heinrich will start his advertising with about $50,000. His campaign says tht amount will be spent in the first four days. Media experts say $100,000 a week is needed to truly blanket the market.

Another of the four Dem ABQ congressional hopefuls, Michelle Lujan Grisham, will also do TV, but not right now. The TV mavens tell us she has booked about $50,000 worth for the final week of the primary contest. The other two candidates are Robert Pidcock and Rebecca Vigil-Giron.

Meanwhile, all of NM's Dems are rejoicing over the Democratic victory in a special election in a normally Republican congressional seat in Mississippi. They are hoping that it signals a big national Dem trend that could finally sweep away the R's in the ABQ district, who have held the seat the since 1968.

UDALL TV

Soon-to-be Dem US Senate nominee Tom Udall will spend some of that $2.6 million he has collected. TV trackers say he has bought about $80,000 in the ABQ market for a one week run that will being next Wednesday. He is expected to stay up until the June 3rd primary.

In the northern congressional district Dem Don Wiviott, who has given his campaign a million dollars in personal money, is off TV for a couple of days. He is "retooling his spots" says a spokesman. When Wiviott goes back up will he go negative on frontrunner Ben Ray Lujan?

CANNON FODDER

If you're Heather Wilson and nuking your GOP US Senate rival Steve Pearce for being anti-Cannon Air Force Base, you don't need articles like this popping up. The base is adding a Special Operations Squadron. What's that again about "mothballing" the place?

While Heather is blasting Pearce over Cannon, Pearce's out-of-state sympathizers are hammering Heather and Tom Udall. It's that "push poll" we told you about yesterday and which has the Udall campaign so upset. The thing about Republicans is that they don't argue the moral imperatives of push polling and such things. They just do it. Which brings us back to the fact that Pearce continues to beat the tar out of Udall not just over the phones, but on statewide TV and with nary a peep from Tom and Company. The last we heard, the bully doesn't back down until you stand up to him, but apparently the high-powered Udall consultants think they have a big enough lead to absorb such attacks. Here in the bleachers, we are much more uncertain.

THINGS WE DON'T HAVE TIME TO WRITE ABOUT

Like the crazy stuff going on in the Chaves County GOP over the hot primary contests being waged against State Rep. Foley and State Sen. Adair. The chair of the county party is saying Adair and Foley are being subjected to unfair attacks! Like those two guys don't know how to play hardball?

THE BOTTOM LINES

The only candidate of Hispanic descent (by his mother) seeking the GOP nomination for the southern congressional seat has received the endorsement of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly. They say: "We wholeheartedly endorse Earl Greer for Congress...He is a man of great integrity, uncompromising morals, and solid character. He reflects our proud Hispanic values, and we would be very honored to have him represent the Hispanic community and the second district in Congress...New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands, Patrick Lyons, announced Wednesday that he is endorsing Ed Tinsley in New Mexico’s Southern congressional Republican primary. That could help Tinsley to start peeling away from what is a crowded and
highly competitive field.

E-mail your news, comments and campaign news.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Neither of the leading candidates for the ABQ congressional seat are getting much seasoning from their first major political campaign. Dem Martin Heinrich and R Darren White have under financed opponents who, so far, have been surprisingly docile. But if there was a real campaign going on, there would be some tough questions for the probable nominees. They are no further than our e-mail box. Starting on the R side, Edward Marquez plays the role of White's opponent and comes with this:

Joe, You and the ABQ Journal missed the story on how White supported Gov. Johnson's drug policy before he was called inept by state police and then said he quit because he opposed legalizing drugs and not the no confidence vote he was given by NM state police.

Marquez supplied this White quote from a 1999 edition of the publication Razor Wire.

"State Public Safety Secretary Darren White said the federal government spends about $17 billion annually to fight drugs, including about $6 million in New Mexico. "And we're probably only seizing 5 to 15 percent of all the drugs coming into the country," White said in an interview. "We're not going to arrest ourselves out of this drug problem. The governor is absolutely right. We should be looking at other options because our current policy is failing."

Look for that quote to dance around in October, if not before the June 3 balloting.

ANOTHER READER CHALLENGE

On the D side, here's Thomas Rymsza, a Democratic Party ward chair.

Reading that Heinrich operated a consulting business and did not get a business license until more than a year after he was on the City Council (ABQ. Journal May 7, 2008) is distressing. As a small business person, with no college degree or experience in politics, even I knew that my consulting work required getting a business license...I hope that Heinrich can produce tax reports to show his business was real...Democrats need to be very careful come June 3rd and support a candidate that can beat Darren White. Michelle Lujan Grisham or Robert Pidcock both will be stronger than Heinrich--and both carry less baggage.

Heinrich has not responded to a state GOP demand that he release his tax records for the consulting business he operated. He told the Journal his failure to get a business license was an oversight that he corrected.

Blog readers are much tougher on the leading candidates than any of their foes in these walk-in-the-park primaries for the ABQ congressional seat.

POLLS PLEASE

KKOB-AM radio morning host Bob Clark asks us the question on the minds of many in the political community: When will we get some public polling on the big races?

It appears the ABQ Journal will do just one poll of all the congressional races. It will probably come on Sunday, May 25 or the Sunday before the June 3rd election. We would bet on the 25th. As for TV, we haven't seen anything from Survey USA yet, but they usually do something for KOB-TV. We'll keep you posted.

ANTSY DEMS: PART II

We blogged Tuesday of "antsy" Dems waiting for a higher campaign profile from soon-to-be US Senate nominee Tom Udall. But Ellen Wedum, a Dem activist and state house candidate in Otero County, said Udall has had plenty of profile in her SE NM neighborhood:

Udall and his wife, Jill Cooper, have been campaigning down our way. They have both visited with local Democrats, attended the Alamogordo Chamber of Commerce annual banquet, and visited with VFW members who were preparing a welcome for our troops just back from Iraq. Udall also attended the Chaves Co pre-primary convention back in March. I think he has been doing a good job of laying the groundwork for his campaign in Pearce territory.

Udall's early attention to the East side is something we have noted. The R's will beat him there, but if he can keep the totals down, his strength in the North and ABQ would be hard to offset.

NO CASH CRUNCH

If Steve Pearce comes up short in his US Senate bid, there's plenty of cash to divert him from the pain. From Roll Call:

...Pearce and his wife have become quite wealthy. The assets listed on his personal financial disclosure form for calendar year 2002 totaled $1.6 million to $6.4 million, not including Individual Retirement Accounts and loans he made to his Congressional campaigns. By last May, Pearce was reporting assets ranging from $7.3 million to $32.6 million, not including IRAs. That total also does not include an additional $1.2 million the Pearce's contributed in late 2003 to the Stevan and Cynthia Pearce Charitable Foundation...

Staying with the Senate race, reader Daniel Balke chastised us for our Monday blog where we descried the GOP Senate nomination as being "coveted."

Hi, Joe: I'm not sure how 'coveted' the Republican nomination will be. Pearce is a clumsy campaigner, and Udall has statewide respect from Democratic and moderate voters alike. Coupled with a fundraising edge, this will likely translate into a victory, if not a trouncing, of the GOP candidate in November. Being in a position to show up on the short-end of Udall's victory is about as coveted as being an ice cube in the hot New Mexico summer sun."

Thanks, D. But watch those cheesy NM analogies. We have a monopoly on them.

Want to blog with us? Send your e-mail in.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Udall
Tom Udall is expected to hit the TV airwaves any day now and for antsy Democrats it won't be a day too soon. The soon-to-be NM Dem US Senate nominee has been getting the snot nuked out of him for several days in statewide TV ads being run by the campaign of GOP Senate contender Steve Pearce. Udall has nothing up anywhere to counter the Pearce onslaught. Pearce's principal target is his Senate foe Heather Wilson who Pearce says shares “liberal values” and "liberal votes” with Udall, whose photo is prominently displayed along with one of Heather.

What makes some Dems especially restless is that Udall has well over a million bucks in the bank and has spent little of it to build up his positives during the primary in which he is unopposed. No mail. No radio. Some TV to come. His Web site remains bare-boned. The worriers argue it's not like he will need the money. The fall Senate race will attract millions from around the nation.

Pearce has been relentless in pursuing the Senate seat, and the snickering heard about him being to the right of Atilla the Hun and absolutely unelectable is still heard, but it is now shared with long-standing concerns about whether Udall has the requisite "fire in the belly" to carry the Dem banner.

Udall was out with a missive Monday night criticizing a "push poll" he said was being conducted against him. He asked for money to respond to the push polling. But think about it. It could have been Tom Udall push polling the Republicans and putting them on the defensive. It could have been Tom Udall already up on the TV screens defining the Senate race of 2008. And since when did push-polling become a mortal sin in these anything goes campaigns?

Dems know for sure they have the Senate race won on the issues, but they don't have it won yet on leadership ability, character, passion and who will fight hardest for this small southwestern state that is losing so much seniority on Capitol Hill. It is on those grounds that the outnumbered R's will try to have this fight fought.

Welcome to the campaign, Tom. Vacation is over.

WORKING CLASS HERO?

Dem congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich. like Udall, has has also been taking heat for running an overly cautious and heavily consulted campaign that has done little to position him for the fall battle in which he would enter as a decided underdog against Republican Darren White. But Heinrich moved to address those concerns in the past week by putting in voters' mailboxes a couple of pieces of literature. One of them says Heinrich "didn't have to learn middle-class values, he was raised with them." The piece points out he is the son of an IBEW lineman and a factory worker.

The chardonnay sippers and the Volvo drivers with the Obama stickers are already money in the bank for Heinrich. Reagan Democrats, Hispanic veterans and homemakers and other working class voters have been voiceless in this congressional campaign. Heinrich's lit pieces begin the process of bringing them home and framing this race on economic issues. The former city councilor also got a pop over the weekend when he secured the endorsement of the ABQ Journal. (Republican Darren White also got the paper's nod.)

The ex city-councilor's financial inability to go up and stay up on television for at least a month means if he wins the nomination he will enter the general with less muscle than he could have. Heinrich raised over $700,000. A decent TV buy can be had for $100,000 a week. If there was a missed opportunity, that was it.

BLOGGIN' DAN FOLEY

You hang around this blog long enough and you're going to hear from everyone. And we mean everyone. Take, for example, this e-mail from Roswell State Rep. Dan Foley who we blogged Monday is in an exciting race for the GOP nomination for his House seat.

...After reading of my demise on your blog I thought I would help you gain some credibility. I mean these same people who are telling you I am “done” are also the same folks who told you Mike Kakuska was going to beat Nora Espinoza???? I guess the fact that I am endorsed by the NRA and the Right to Life organization has no bearing in my election? I am enclosing a letter that was e-mailed this weekend. I thought you might like to see it before you count me out yet!

Welcome aboard, Dan. It's a bumpy ride around here, but we think you'll like it. First, we did not predict your "demise." We said you are in the fight of your life, which you are. Retired FBI agent Dennis Kintigh is playing to win. As for that 2006 Roswell State House GOP primary featuring Kakuska and Espinoza, you are right about the outcome. Espinoza won, but that doesn't mean it wasn't a good race.

As for your endorsements, if readers click on the image posted next to this story, they will see your mailer about them in all their glory. Now, back to the campaign trail with you and Kintigh. The masses demand their entertainment.

ENOUGH FROM ED?

Is the negative mail Ed Tinsley has launched against GOP southern NM congressional rival Aubrey Dunn enough? That's the question after Tinsley hit the mailboxes with the hit piece pictured here. (Click on it for a full image.) Restaurant chain owner Tinsley cites Dunn's opposition to the Patriot Act and his recent switch from the Democratic to the Republican Party. But will it be enough to thwart rancher Dunn in the conservative SE counties where he has staked his claim and hoes for a victory? Maybe.

Tinsley wants to keep the negative as low-key as possible so former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman, recipient of over $600,000 in largesse from the National Association of Realtors, doesn't run up the middle while Dunn and Tinsley hammer each other. But if the numbers don't move off the mailboxes, Tinsley will have to take it to the tube with all the uncertainty that entails. Dunn was in the mail Monday, but it wa s a positive piece aimed at seniors, but he will have to respond to Tinsley's negative before long.

BARACK AND BILL

Hold on to your wallets wall-leaners, lobbyists and everyone else who has ever given a dime to a Democrat. Big Bill is back in action. He is hosting a fund-raiser for Barack Obama tomorrow night at the Gerald Peters gallery in Santa Fe, or so we are told. Tickets are relatively low-priced compared to Big Bill's parties. One insider says they are going for as low as $100 a piece. The same insider says Bill hopes to help raise $100,000 for Obama at the Wednesday night party.

EYEBROW RAISER

If Eric Griego hasn't got the attention yet of Dem State Senator James Taylor, he's got it now. The former ABQ city councilor said Monday night he has raised over $59,000 in his bid to take the Dem nomination away from the veteran lawmaker. Griego says he raised contributions from 445 donors--the majority of whom gave $50 or less.

Our finance report shows we're running a grassroots campaign that has generated widespread, local support. My donors are people in our community who believe we need to change the way things are done in Santa Fe."

Taylor's campaign told me last week their fund-raising was "going well." Taylor has been endorsed by Big Bill whose campaign committee gave him $5,000. Here are the other legislators the Guv gave to. Finance reports on all the legislative campaigns were due in Santa Fe Monday.

THE BOTTOM LINES

The ABQ Journal (thanks to intrepid reporter Bruce Daniels) has now posted Senator Domenici's Friday night statement in which he announced he will not endorse a candidate in the GOP US Senate primary. We noted that it had only been in the Saturday print editions. Read all about it.

I'm Joe Monahan, reporting to you from Albuquerque, NM. E-mail your news from the campaign trail and elsewhere.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Pearce & Wilson
The noose got tighter around the political neck of Heather Wilson this weekend, and unless something spectacular happens at the end of the month TV debates, the political intelligentsia say Steve Pearce is positioning himself for a five to ten point win in the battle for the coveted GOP US Senate nomination.

Wilson received a body blow Friday night when retiring US Senator and Wilson mentor Pete Domenici said he will not--repeat--will not--endorse a candidate in the Pearce-Wilson contest, but instead work hard for the winner of the June 3 primary. The ABQ Journal printed the news in its Saturday editions. It is not posted on the paper's Web site.

The Pete poll was the only one the political pros and the Alligators needed to confirm the evidence that is all around them--Pearce has secured overwhelming support in his southern congressional district, has a healthy lead in the northern district and is making progress toward ending Wilson's last hope--a blow-out win in big Bernalillo County and its suburbs.

Pete made Heather's career by endorsing her for the ABQ US House seat in 1998. His endorsement this time might have helped her score that big landslide in Bernalillo, but maybe not. In 1988, outgoing ABQ GOP US Rep Manuel Lujan tried to get his brother Edward to succeed him, but was rejected. Steve Schiff won the GOP primary. In 2002, outgoing southern US Rep Joe Skeen endorsed Republican Ed Tinsley, but Steve Pearce beat Tinsley.

Elections are about the future, not the past. And no matter how respected Domenici is in the Republican Party, time waits for no one. Wilson has three weeks to make something big happen--on her own.

THE PIVOTAL MOMENT?

The pivotal moment in Senate Campaign '08 may have come when Wilson aired her TV spot hitting Pearce for supposedly not supporting funding to beef up border security and for being weak on supporting the troops for not voting against a Democratic Iraq withdrawal plan. The pros say she appeared to be closing the gap, but then Pearce came with a spot that touted his conservative record, saying he votes conservative "every time," not some of the time like Wilson.

The Pearce campaign is now running spots trying to link Wilson's moderate Republicanism with the Democratic liberalism of soon-to-be Senate nominee Tom Udall. The overbearing use of the word "liberal" is the established style of Pearce's New York media consultant Arthur Finklestein. Pearce is also getting help from the conservative Club for Growth, which has come with a $200,000 buy attacking Heather. This means Wilson is now being outspent as she has no independent groups advertising for her.

For her part, Wilson is again hitting Pearce for being weak on funding Cannon Air Force Base. She also throws in ABQ's Sandia Labs and Los Alamos Labs. Her first foray into this territory--criticizing Pearce on Cannon--went nowhere. There is little reason to think this latest ad is the breakthrough spot Heather needs.

THE PAPER CHASE

As expected, Wilson on Sunday received the endorsement of the state's largest newspaper, the Albuquerque Journal, but the paper unintentionally damned her while praising her. The Journal noted how Wilson is fond of reminding the state that she has a reputation as a "moderate." But that's what is killing her in this GOP primary in which she has shed the moderate label and now calls her herself a "common-sense conservative." In general elections moderate Democrats and independents have rescued Wilson, but in a US Senate primary there are only red meat Republicans in the boat. They are not going to bail her out.

In a mini-surprise, the Los Alamos Monitor endorsed Pearce over Wilson, even though Wilson is way ahead in the county and has scored points over Pearce for his votes regarding funding of Los Alamos. But the Monitor put aside lab funding and said in its endorsement:

"If no one in government is willing to stand up and say no to this project or that project, nothing will ever be cut and the federal deficit will continue to grow and grow and our debt will be worse and worse."

THE FERVOR

A taste of the right-wing fervor for Pearce, 60, came over the weekend from the NM right to life group which not only endorsed his candidacy, but did it at a meeting right in front of Heather. It was seen as a diss by some, but Heather knew what was coming. Others reminded us that it was Wilson who poked a stick in the eye of right to life when, in 2006, she made a fall campaign commercial bragging that she had voted to override President Bush's veto of a stem cell research bill. She could do that then because right to lifers had no where to go, but now they have Pearce's plush Cadillac to climb onto, and climbing aboard they are.

PETE'S LONG GOODBYE

Several hundred R's turned out Friday night to pay tribute to Senator Domenici who will leave the Senate at the end of the year. That was not an exceptionally large crowd for the state's longest serving US Senator, but then he won't be bringing home the bacon anymore, will he? Also, Domenici has done little to heal the rift within Republican ranks. Joe Carraro, Dave Cargo, Earl Greer, Janice Arnold-Jones, Mark Boitano and others are still running around outside the tent. KKOB's Peter St. Cyr posted complete audio of Domenici's speech as well as that of dinner keynoter and former NY US Senator Al D'Amato.

FOLEY PRESSURED

The most important GOP legislative primary race in NM this year is in Roswell, where House minority whip Dan Foley is under the gun from a former FBI agent who has now gone negative, and who, according to intelligence on the ground, may be leading the controversial Foley. Here's the TV ad Dennis Kintigh has put up.



Foley was arrested last year in a highly publicized dispute over his son's basketball game. An ugly mug shot of the state rep was circulated. Charges against him were eventually dismissed. It may have been the straw that broke the camel's back, even though Kintigh is not using it in his TV ad. Foley is an Irish street fighter and has three weeks to bruise newcomer Kintigh, but neutral sources say this could be the legislative upset of June 3rd. We are providing exclusive coverage outside of Roswell on this one and admit we are on the edge of our chair.

Also fighting for his political life, is Foley ally and fellow Chaves County lawmaker, State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair. Former Chaves County Commissioner Rory McMinn is challenging Adair in the GOP primary. McMinn won the right-to-life endorsement over the weekend, nothing to sneeze at in hard-core conservative country. Insiders say the race is in play and Adair will have to fight hard all the way to the finish line.

TEAGUE TALK

Hobbs oil man Harry Teague claims his campaign for the Southern Dem US House nomination is gushing with support. Teague, who has taken nearly $700,000 of the money he has made in Texas Tea and plunked it into his campaign, says a recent robo-call poll he conducted shows him well ahead of challenger and Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley:

A Survey USA style poll conducted on May 9th of 420 likely primary voters showed Harry Teague leading his opponent 36% to 14% with 50% undecided.

That sounds about right since Teague has been on the air for nearly a month without a response from McCamley. McCamley has about $200,000 in his bank account, enough for only one late TV buy. That will be the one and only chance the 30 year old has to turn this one around.

THE BOTTOM LINES

You gotta give the Santa Fe Reporter credit for keeping it real. Here's how they are deciding who to endorse in Campaign '08:

We interview all the candidates in a group since (A). we are a tiny staff and that's the only way to do it and (B), if they are going to talk shit about one another, I'd just as soon they do it in front of each other so that the shit-talkers and shit-talkees can respond to one another. Also, it keeps things fair, as in everyone answers the same questions and gets about the same amount of time. It's not a complex thing, but you'd think we were asking them all to come in naked and recite Shakespeare (now there's an idea).

And if you want a really outrageous take on Hillary's troubles with Barack, check out this video. But don't say we didn't warn you.

Send your news and comments via e-mail. We look forward to hearing from you.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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We threw out enough bait to catch a basket of trout at Tingley Beach, but Mayor Marty wouldn't bite. Despite repeated prodding during an impromptu caffeinated session at my local Starbucks, the mayor would not commit to an unprecedented fourth term run for the city's top job in 2009. We even taunted him with the prospect that Dem City Councilor Michael Cadigan, a chief Chavez critic, might succeed him if he did not seek re-election, but the mayor stayed mum.

Still, it is no secret that short of getting a job in a national Dem administration, the mayor is very likely to seek another four years. Interestingly, he said he has never met Barack Obama. Chavez is a hard-core Clintonista.

Chavez did give us a clue of what might be a major campaign theme if he does seek re-election, asserting that the local economy is performing strongly despite national troubles. But Chavez has been forced to eliminate vacant positions at city hall in light of lower gross receipts tax collections and big increases in the city budget under his watch.

While we couldn't break any campaign news, we did get some about Tingley. The mayor says over the next few years he expects kids to again be able to swim there, just as they did at the original Tingley Beach those many years ago.

MULLING WITH THE MEDIA

What keeps a newsman excited after 45 years on the New Mexico beat? For TV news dean Dick Knipfing of KRQE-TV it's still the scoop. "Nothing pleases me more than to look at the ABQ Journal front page in the morning and say, "We had that story last night," exclaimed Knipfing during a University of New Mexico panel discussion we participated in on media relations. Sitting next to Knipfing was none other than ABQ Journal editor-in-chief Kent Walz who didn't seem to take offense at Dick's ardor, but didn't smile about it either.

Walz was straight up with new UNM President David Schmidly and the deans and administrators gathered for our session. He said the university has a lousy record in providing information to the press, but he hoped the relationship would improve.

Walz dropped a tidbit for the UNM group that may be useful to the politicos. He cautioned that when a reporter agrees to go "off the record" with you, that doesn't mean the information won't be used if it is confirmed independently. That's something to remember while on the campaign trail. The editor also said the Journal remains committed to investigative reporting, with three reports assigned to the beat.

UNM Prez Schmidly told us he likes his La Politica and keeps up with former Oklahoma Senator David Boren who now has a home in Santa Fe. The new president hopes he can keep the Alligators at bay for a while, but he knows what to expect. "You get your Ph.D. in politics in New Mexico," he joked.

MORE MONTY MONEY

You could buy a pretty nice house with the money the National Association of Realtors PAC is coming with to support southern NM GOP congressional candidate Monty Newman,. They said Thursday they are now up to $573,000, including $325,000 in ABQ and El Paso TV buys. The PAC is allowed to spend all this dough as long as they do not coordinate their expenditures with the Newman campaign.

Newman is a Realtor from Hobbs, but he's not the only Realtor in the race. Earl Greer of T or C is one, too. His campaign is working on having some NM Realtors come out against the national pac's support of Newman. But that isn't going to stop the TV spots and direct mail pieces from going out and that could have a major impact on the outcome of the contest.

DID THEY CHUG?

When we blogged of the house party held on behalf of ABQ Dem congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich by former NM First Lady Clara Apodaca, we noted that the city councilor had been doing well with the Chardonnay sippers, but wondered about his support with blue collar beer drinkers Well, according to the Heinrich campaign, Clara served beer at her Heinrich party. Now that's reaching out to the Democratic Party.

ON THE GRAPEVINE
Pauline & Scott
Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland was doing some lobbying on behalf of his better half this week. His wife, Pauline, has launched a new Web site--www.santafegrapevine.com--and Scanland was spreading the word. He doesn't have to work too hard. Pauline is is a go-getter when it comes to business and bringing people together. The Grapevine will connect people in Santa Fe and the surrounding area with news, forums, and chat groups, among many other features, so join up.

Meanwhile, lobbyist Scanland is preparing to join us for our 20th year of live Election Night coverage on KANW 89.1 FM. that kicks off at 6:30 p.m. June 3. I don't have to tell you what a wild night that's going to be.

Email your news and comments and visit us again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Monty Newman
While the congressional race in the big city has turned into a sleeping aid more effective than Sominex, the contest to represent our state's southern cities in the hallowed halls of D.C. has the hopefuls running like their shirt tails are on fire. And Wednesday the GOP race for the Southern NM seat got hotter than a Lordsburg parking lot. The National Association of Realtors did a third party money dump on behalf of former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman, putting up $200,000 in TV spots in ABQ and El Paso. Combined with an earlier $250,000 for direct mail and research for Monty, it adds up to $450,000 and a game-changer in the most wide-open of the four congressional battles being waged across our Land of Enchantment.

Restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley was the first to hear the new campaign house being built for Monty. He protested in a news release that the 51 year old Newman is really a "serial tax raiser" and big spender, not the limited government, low tax advocate the Realtors portray him as. But Ed, who had his heart broken when he lost the GOP nod for the southern seat against Steve Pearce in 2002, is playing catch-up. He could have come with big April money and scared the Realtors away from Newman, but didn't. Now, the proverbial cat is not only out of the bag, it's morphing into a lion.

Aubrey Dunn was another GOP contender grabbing for the aspirin bottle when he heard the Newman news. The open secret in southern congressional politics is that it takes big wins in just two or three counties to secure the GOP nomination. Newman is now positioned to take his home county of Lea; Otero appears to be Dunn's. Who can add another SE prize like Chaves or Eddy? And what of the big prize outside of the SE--Dona Ana? With the oil patch being split into pieces, that is now an even more highly prized battleground, with the Realtors blasting the air for Monty there on El Paso TV. Tinsley says he is getting into Cruces via cable. We assume Dunn is too.

Strategists suggest that Tinsley--with no strong geographic base--may now have to go negative to hold his place in this race. He has a ranch in Lincoln County, but his ties are not as strong to the district as those of Newman and Dunn. Dunn has to be eyeing his bank balance as he contemplates what may be in store. He said he would not spend more than $300,000 of his own cash, an assumption that could come under pressure if the D.C. realtors continue to come with bricks and mortar. Here's their ad.


MONTY POWER

And here's a taste of what $250,000 can put in the mailboxes. Click on it for a full look at what is terrorizing Newman's opposition.

We chatted up Realtor Newman late Wednesday. He said he isn't worried that voters will see him as a one trick pony and in the service of the real estate business. He pointed to his record as Hobbs mayor and long ties to the district. Still, the newspaper editorial writers are sure to question the sudden interest of a powerful out of state interest group playing in their backyard.

While waiting for southern trigger-pulling, Dunn's campaign dunned us for saying the other day that Aubrey had already pulled the trigger: "The contrast/comparison mail we sent went to 130 Republican convention delegates, not primary voters. All of our mail to primary voters has been POSITIVE."

But it may be just a matter of time before the south is carpet bombed with nuke ads. The candidates fear is that two of the three leading contenders get into combat, leaving the third "positive" candidate positioned to run clean and up the middle. That's why everyone is being quite cautious in going negative early. No one wants to give up the chance of being the clean winner. The other two players are Earl Greer and Greg Sowards.

This is now a game that calls for expert and mistake-free political coaching. It is that close.

LET'S GO NORTH

While the spotlight was blazing on the southern race, in the north one of the leading candidates has actually gone dark. Dem hopeful Ben Ray Lujan hasn't been seen on the TV airwaves for a week. His campaign says they are "retooling" their ads, but consultants rarely put their candidates on the tube and then take them off. The fact is it takes over $100,000 a week to buy a decent presence and Lujan is going to need even more as we approach the final stretch. His chief competitor, Santa Fe multimillionaire developer Don Wiviott, is showing no let up on the tube, continuing to spend that nearly $1 million he has put up in personal cash. He won't have the screen to himself for long, however. The Lujan camp says their man will be back on the air next week.

THE RIVER CITY BEAT

The sky is not falling...yet. And that means--believe it or not--Big Bill's long-stalled health care reform plan lives. The Guv's numbers crunchers released an updated state money forecast Tuesday for the current fiscal year showing those sky-high gas prices that are tearing a hole in your wallet mean tax dollars from the NM oil and gas industry continue to pour into Santa Fe. That is blunting the effects of a slowing economy elsewhere.

However, Senate Finance Chairman John Arthur Smith isn't buying any rosy scenario for the next fiscal year that starts in July. "I do not forecast a pleasant year. These are challenging times. We've got a lot of big ticket items for the next fiscal year we are trying to address."

Smith says the state would need to increase spending by hundreds of millions of dollars if the Legislature and governor agreed to proposals for universal health care coverage, revamp the state's school finance system, shore up an ailing health care plan for government retirees and cover a highway funding shortfall.

Smith and Company will soon get a forecast for the next fiscal year from their staff. If oil and natural gas prices stay in the stratosphere and the new cash forecast is not markedly different from what we heard Tuesday, Smith is going to feel Fourth Floor heat to move on health care reform.

On that front, insiders report nine state senators, staff for the Legislature and the governor were meeting again last week on health care while Richardson continues to hammer out political strategy for a special session. When it comes to state finances this has been one of the luckiest governor's in modern history. Will the streak continue long enough for him to pass landmark legislation, not just a fig leaf? Stay tuned.

OBAMA NEARS NOD

Late Tuesday, Hillary pulled out Indiana over Obama, but he landslided her in the North Carolina Dem prez contest. NBC's Tim Russert told the nation, it will be Obama winning the nomination. That's good news for Big Bill who has cast his lot with Obama. How long before Light Guv Denish, an ardent Hill backer, gets aboard the Barack Express?

TINSLEY'S TV

Ed Tinsley went up on ABQ TV Tuesday, the first of the five GOP southern congressional contenders to do so, and none too soon for his itchy supporters who see rancher and retired banker Aubrey Dunn breathing down Tinsley's throat.

Tinsley, owner of the K-Bob's restaurant chain, came with a new spot that positions him as tough on sealing the border. The ad also splashes the slogan "Conservative Republican" across a corner of the screen. Dunn has attacked Tinsley for not being tough enough on illegal immigration when serving as president of the National Restaurant Association. In a piece of lit Dunn also labeled his rival "Liberal Ed Tinsley." This ad seems directed to counter those charges.

Dunn has gone negative in the mail and on the stump, not on TV. It appears we are in a game of chicken. Neither of the two leading contenders for the GOP nod appear to want to be first to do negative TV. Maybe they need to look at some Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson spots for inspiration. Meantime, Tinsley fans are hoping that former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman will split the SE vote with Dunn, leaving Tinsley to claim the victory by outperforming in the remainder of the sprawling district.

POSING WITH THE PREZ

A photo of you smiling with the Prez will go for $5,000 a pop when he sets down in ABQ May 27th for a fund-raiser for ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Darren White. A ducat (you can look that up, kids) for a general reception will set patrons back a thousand a piece. White will likely net at least several hundred thousand from the prez's visit, but risks souring swing voters who are through with Bush. That's why the visit is in May, not October. Where Bush will make his appearance has not been released.

Yes, White is opposed in the primary by State Sen. Joe Carraro and it is unusual for national and state R's to endorse in a contested primary. The endorsement highlights the division in the GOP which was evident when Allen Weh was challenged for the chairmanship last year by Earl Greer. For his part, Carraro has put up a giant billboard at ABQ's Big I, complete with smiling picture. At least he'll have something to show the grandkids.

FREE RIDERS
Rue, Whitefield & Daniels
Here's a snap from photog Mark Bralley of three happy politicians. They all now have free rides to election or re-election. On the left, Sander Rue gets a free ride as David Pyne drops out of the GOP race for an ABQ West Side state Senate seat. No Dem is running so Rue will take the primary and then the general. Alligators report the lobbyists have already been seen swarming over the soon-to-be Senator.

Elizabeth Whitefield got lucky. The incumbent ABQ district court family judge was opposed by Metro Judge Frank Sedillo, but no more. Sedillo dropped out. There is no R running so Judge Elizabeth joins our free rider club. And then there's newly named NM Supreme Court Justice Charlie Daniels. No Dem challenged him in the primary and no R is running in November. Daniels will finish out the term of the late Pamela Minzner without giving the give and take of La Politica a second thought. That's the luxury of a free ride.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Everyone has their favorites this political season and that includes Big Bill. The Dem Governor may not be on the ballot in NM anymore, but he still has a couple of legislative sessions to negotiate (if he doesn't head to D.C. under a Dem administration) and will use some political muscle to influence the June primary results. His eyes, say the insiders, are especially fixed on the State Senate where his healthcare reform plan was stalled. One of them weighs in.

The Governor is engaged in the upcoming elections, and is going to pay special attention with contributions and appearances on behalf of Senators Shannon Robinson, Carlos Cisneros, James Taylor, Howie Morales, Linda Lovejoy, David Ulibarri, Dede Feldman and John Pinto.

We didn't see the name of ABQ Sen. Linda Lopez on that favored list. She is in a primary battle with businessman Michael Padilla, and it's no secret that Linda, who has clashed with Bill in her role as chair of Senate Rules, is not a Fourth Floor favorite.

THE COST OF WAR

This state of aggravation between Big Bill and Light Guv Diane Denish could have some political consequences. Denish has been considered a shoo-in for the Dem guv nomination when Bill departs, but his political allies might want to make that more questionable if the top two can't settle their differences. For example, the name of former NM House Speaker Raymond Sanchez is being floated as a possible 2010 Dem Guv contender. Not that Raymond, who was tossed from his legislative seat in 2000, is going to put the fear of God into Di, but his stirrings could encourage others to weigh an entry, complicating Denish's designs for the state's top job.

The stakes could be going up, but when it comes to the 400 year old New Mexican governorship, they've never been very low.

BUSH'S BAGS TO ABQ

A presidential visit these days is a mixed bag, but Bush still raises a bag full of dough when he campaigns for GOP candidates, and that will be the case when he touches down in the Duke City May 27th for a fund-raiser on behalf of ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Darren White and the state GOP's 2008 victory fund. Bush's visit, being leaked out by the R's, will come just days before the June 3 primary.

Dems will be gleeful to get photos of White snuggling with the unpopular Prez, but White will use the visit to cement support in the primary in which he faces a cantankerous challenge from State Sen. Joe Carraro. Also, White's fund-raising has not blown the doors off. Bush' s visit will help shore up his bank balance. The downside for White is being seen so close to Bush by conservative Dems and key swing voters.. That almost cost Heather Wilson the seat in 2006. She brought the Prez in for a June '06 visit, making sure he was nowhere to bee seen when October rolled around. Insiders suspect White will do the same--use Bush--who he served as chairman of his 2004 Bernalillo County campaign effort--to raise money now, but by the time the Halloween masks come out, Bush and his visit will be a long lost memory.

AT THE TRACK

The handicapping continues. Capitol hill newspaper Roll Call pegs NM's US Senate seat "safe Democratic" in the November election. Speaking of soon-to-be Dem nominee Tom Udall, the paper analyzes:

While his politics are probably more liberal than those of most voters, New Mexico is a swing state that rewards likability and integrity-- qualities that Udall possesses...But a Republican victory is not impossible.

WE'RE OUT OF THE GATE

It's here. The first day of voting for Primary '08 is today. Here's info on where to cast an early ballot in Bernalillo County. For other counties, check your county clerk's site. It's expected that over half the primary vote will be cast through early and absentee balloting.

HISPANIC POWER

From the Politico: Democrats are poised this week to pass a crucial milestone in Florida: For the first time, the number of Hispanic Democrats in the state is expected to exceed the number of Hispanic Republicans.

OVER THE TOP SPOT?

The latest anti-DWI TV spot from the state Department of Transportation has drawn some fire. Critics ask: should the state be implying that persons picked up for violating the drinking and driving laws will be subjected to homosexual assault? In one scene, a state PSA showcases the flabby belly of an actor posing a as a prison inmate in an orange jump suit. The alleged DWI offender asks: "Who's that? The response comes, "That's your new buddy in jail."

A curious viewer asks: Do NM Corrections Secretary Joe Williams or NM's county jail directors accept sexual assault as an expected outcome of a jail or prison stay? The pokey is no place to be coddled, but shouldn't citizens incarcerated for alleged crimes be provided a minimum of physical safety? Or is that a value being kicked to the curb in an over zealous public service message? They're just asking.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Heinrich & White
Republican Darren White and Democrat Martin Heinrich may be the leading candidates to take their party's primary nominations for the open ABQ congressional seat, but a Friday night televised face-off revealed considerable baggage both will be toting into the fall battle.

Appearing on public station KNME-TV in what may (disappointingly) be the only TV debates between the four Dem hopefuls and the two GOP contenders, both White and Heinrich held their own, but neither had satisfactory explanations for what will likely be key issues following the June 3 primary.

Heinrich was hammered by challenger Robert Pidcock over whether he has held a full-time job during his adult life. Heinrich pointed out that he had a consulting business and was also executive director of the Cottonwood Gulch Foundation, a camp for teens and pre-teens offering personal growth through outdoor experiences. But Pidcock retorted that the camp was a "summer camp" and did not constitute a full-time job.

The work history of the 35 year old former ABQ city councilor is going to be an issue, said NM GOP communications director Scott Darnell, signaling that we can expect to see the Heinrich resume highlighted in scalding TV ads. It could be reminiscent of that Big Bill spot used against Republican rival John Sanchez in the 2002 race for governor. Bill claimed Sanchez had doctored his resume by saying he was running a business when he was actually serving as an airline flight attendant. No one is accusing Heinrich of resume fixing, but Republicans are desperate to switch the debate from the issues--which work against them--to Heinrich's personal background. The former councilor did a solid job elsewhere in the debate, but he will need to tighten up his answer to the job question or White and the GOP are going to run their elephant through it and him.

THE SHERIFF AND THE SENATOR

As for White, the Bernalillo County Sheriff was verbally assaulted by GOP rival Joe Carraro, who insisted that in the 1990's White left his position as cabinet secretary for pubic safety--not because he disagreed with then-Governor Johnson's position for legalizing drugs--but because state police expressed no confidence in his leadership. White never did directly address that issue, perhaps giving the Dems some fall fodder. But Heinrich, or whoever is the Dem nominee, was given a real gift when debate moderator David Alire Garcia asked the sheriff to name one vote he would have cast differently than that of GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson who he hopes to succeed. White, who had just finished saying he would be an "independent" voice for the ABQ district, could not name a single vote on which he would differ with her. The response left White vulnerable to accusations that he is a Bush-Wilson clone. That's the one charge, if it sticks, that could give the Dems a fighting chance in a district where White's likability and name ID are far higher than that of his potential foes.

THE CASH KING

While the ABQ congressional candidates squared off on TV, in the north Don Wiviott was announcing that he has put up even more of his personal cash to take his campaign to TV in an even bigger way. Wiviott filed notice with the FEC that he will give himself another $100,000 in his effort to secure the Dem congressional nomination. That puts Wiviott at $990,000 in personal money, just shy of a cool million. Will he spend all that cash? You an easily go through $200,000 a week on ABQ TV. With four weeks to go in Primary '08, the math is easy to figure. Wiviott's opponents get to raise bigger individual donations--up to $6900--because Wiviott has gone over the personal spending limits specified by the FEC.

Wiviott's effort seems to have stalled in recent days He re-cut an anti-Iraq TV spot to make it more effective. The perceived frontrunner in the contest, Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Lujan, has not made any big mistakes and the other three contenders have been mostly quiet. But a million bucks is a lot of money and is going to keep the race open until we get a sample of the next phase of the Santa Fe developer's campaign. What that phase consists of remains the real million dollar question.

SOUTHERN COOKIN'

Now we take you south to yet another open NM congressional seat. Retired banker and rancher Aubrey Dunn today is putting up his second TV spot in his campaign for the GOP nomination for the Southern seat. In it he throws out red meat on the border issue, saying he would complete building a border fence and keep troops deployed to secure the border.

Dunn is one of five GOP candidates chasing the nomination for the seat being given up by Steve Peace. It is by far the most intriguing contest for political junkies, with the contest seemingly wide open. Our Alligators report Dunn is doing very well in Otero County which his father, Aubrey Dunn Sr., represented for many years in the State Senate. Supporters of restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley are getting antsy. He has said he will spend $300,000 on TV, but nothing has popped up yet in the big ABQ market. Dunn is also not on in ABQ, but airing his spots on outlets in Southern NM. Some Tinsley backers fear Dunn, with superior name ID and what appears to be a solid base in big Otero, could take the prize unless Tinsley soon gets aggressive and negative. Will Tinsley hit Dunn over his checkered party registration history and his donations to Big Bill's presidential campaign? He may have no choice as he did not come with the big money in April to put this one away.

MONTY'S MONEY

Southern CD GOP candidate Monty Newman will not see that $250,000 the National Association of Realtors is putting up for his campaign on his TV screen as we first speculated. One of our finance operatives did some legwork on this big third party expenditure and reports: "According to the FEC, the Realtors PAC plans to spend most of that on mailers, but some will be spent on survey costs, consulting services and accessing the 2nd District voter list."

Newman, who has loaned himself $100,000, had $206,000 cash in the bank at of the end of March. With the Realtors coming with money for the nuts and bolts, Newman could be expected to spend much of his own campaign funds on TV ads. Earl Greer and Greg Sowards round out the southern GOP congressional field.

COLON OFF THE FENCE
Chair Colon
No one in the political community was surprised by the weekend announcement of state Dem Party chair and national Democratic convention superdelegate Brian Colon that he would back Obama over Hillary for the Dem prez nomination. Colon is a subsidiary of Big Bill who made his support for Obama famously known last month. Dem US Senate candidate Tom Udall is the last big name unpledged NM superdelegate. Insiders expect him to go for Obama, but maybe he wants to avoid a decision until after the June primary. Even though he is unopposed for the Senate nomination, like Colon, he is going to make a lot of Dems unhappy when he does announce his decision.

Colon's decision to go with Obama displeased Light Guv Diane Denish as much as it pleased Big Bill. Lady Di, chair of Hillary's NM prez campaign, scored the chairman in this statement:

"It would have been appropriate for him to wait until all the primaries are over or until the convention...to cast his vote...He is expected to...bring folks together after the primaries. His bias in conducting the State Central Committee meeting last week followed by a very quick endorsement (confirming what everyone suspected, that he was acting in a biased manner) makes it less likely that he will have the ability to do his job as Chair."

So if Big Bill scores a job with a President Obama and Di becomes Guv, does it sound like Colon could be out as party chair? Yes, it sounds that way. But today Bill is still the man.

DI & BILL

The Journal hit with a Sunday piece has some observers thinking that big political split over Hill and Obama renewed tension between Big Bill and Lady Di. But Denish was restrained in her criticism of Bill for not notifying her that he would be out of state attending the Kentucky Derby over the weekend and therefore making her Acting Governor. His staff called it an "oversight." Denish supporting Hillary and Bill backing Barack may be causing the recent Maalox moments between the two. When that is resolved, maybe so will the tension between the two ambitious personalities. Or maybe not.

IT'S UP TO THE PRESS
Jones With Udall
We confess to being a bit turbocharged back in our day on the daily beat, but we don't think we'll ever be mellowed out enough to accept what the ABQ Journal's Jeff Jones wrote in a Sunday column (not posted on Web) about the two GOP contenders for the US Senate nomination.

"I tried for three straight days to speak with both Republican Senate candidates about their remarks and their spokespeople said neither was available."

Jones was writing about gender-pay problems and the statements Pearce and Wilson made at their late April Los Alamos debate. It's an issue that one would think the would-be Senators would have standard boiler-plate answers to.

Wilson, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, has been notorious for stiff-arming the press, and now Pearce seems to be picking up the habit. But the politicos are only going to do what they can get away with. If the press is not going to stake them out and force them to answer, or out them on their valuable front pages, they are going to continue to be subjected to candidate arrogance. "The power of the press" exists only if it is used. Will New Mexico's press use it in this historic battle for the United States Senate?

THE BOTTOM LINES

The Monday Monster Blog continues, and we have a feeling there will be a couple more of them between now and primary day. Some readers last week said they could not access that anti-McCain TV ad from MoveOn.org that got the goat of NM GOP chairman Allen Weh. Here it is....

Southern Dem congressional candidate Bill McCamley announces that former Dem contender Al Kissling is backing his candidacy. Both are from the Las Cruces area. Dem candidate Harry Teague now has three TV ads in rotation. They can be seen here...

E-mail it in. News, comments and cordial disagreements.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Att. Pete Dinelli
You might call him "Demolition Dinelli" for all the tear-downs of eyesore ABQ hotels and motels he has supervised, but someday ABQ assistant city attorney Pete Dinelli hopes you might call him "Mr. Mayor."

"I expect to retire from the city by the end of the year and if Mayor Chavez does not seek re-election, I would seriously consider a mayoral bid," He said.

It wouldn't be the first time. Pete ran for mayor back in 1989, the year Ken Schultz lost his re-election bid and Louis Saavedra won in a run-off against Pat Baca. From 1985-89 Dinelli was an ABQ city councilor from the mid-NE Heights where he still resides. At 57, he is one of the NM Dem party's senior members who has a keen understanding of state political history. His passion for ABQ is similar to that of Mayor Chavez and the late Mayor Kinney. If he gets in the race, that alone could make him a player.

Mayor Marty took note of Dinelli's service to the city recently by holding a surprise roast for him at the balloon museum. Some 100 gathered to honor ABQ native Dinelli who, like Governor Richardson, had one Anglo and one Hispanic parent. The mayor had some nice things to say about his employee, but he didn't say anything about not running for mayor next year. Dinelli may also have to keep his eye on one of the vacant ABQ judgeships.

SHANNON'S BUDDY

We're not saying Big Bill is supporting veteran ABQ SE Heights State Senator Shannon Robinson in his Democratic primary contest with political newcomer and progressive Tim Keller. Well, on second thought, maybe we are. From the Guv's office:

Governor Richardson will be joined today by State Senator Shannon Robinson to make a traffic safety announcement at Highland High School at 1:30pm.

CHARDONNAY OR BUD?

Former NM First Lady Clara Apodaca (1975-79) is throwing her support behind the Dem congressional candidacy of Martin Heinrich. We've blogged that it appears the former city councilor already has a lock on the Chardonnay crowd. Maybe Clara served some blue-collar Budweiser at the house party she threw for Martin Thursday night. Meanwhile, is it Republicans saying Heinrich could be a possible '09 ABQ mayor candidate if his congressional bid comes up short? It sure isn't Pete Dinelli, Michael Cadigan or Richard Romero.

ROSWELL GATORS

Roswell Alligators are not letting go unanswered that endorsement of GOP State Rep. Dan Foley by the National Rifle Association. They point out that Foley primary foe Dennis Kintigh has been given the go ahead by the Roswell Police Officers Association. Foley had a highly publicized run-in with the Roswell cops when he interfered at a basketball game in which his son was playing. Charges against Foley were eventually dismissed.

BOB'S BACK

Bob Cornelius, former executive director of the Bernalillo County GOP and a short-time candidate for the Southern NM Congressional seat, says he's back on the circuit. "I will be sworn in as the new President of the New Mexico Republican Assembly, the "Republican Wing of the Republican Party" or as President Reagan once said "the conscience of the Republican Party," reports the 28 year old Lea County native who is also busy campaigning for GOP US Senate candidate Steve Pearce.

GAS GUZZLING

He's chairman of the Senate Energy Committee, but some observers thought US Senator Jeff Bingaman looked a bit helpless in a recent interview with the ABQ Journal in which he said nothing much could be done about the sky-high gasoline prices consumers are suffering under. Perhaps mindful of that, the chairman came with a stronger statement and some specifics on what can be done. Bingaman warned of political posturing over gas prices in this election year, but Bingaman is not up for election until 2012, and if we ever needed leadership on American energy policy, now is the time.

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Pat Rogers
Eyebrows are being raised in some GOP quarters at the notion that a key player in the US Attorney scandal, ABQ attorney Pat Rogers, could wind up in the prestigious position of New Mexico Republican National Committeeman. Insiders say former State Rep. and businessman George Buffett will not seek re-election to the post when the party meets in June and that Rogers is currently the only candidate.

Rogers, a shareholder with the well-known Modrall law firm in ABQ, has a long involvement with GOP politics, including his association with ABQ attorney/lobbyist Mickey Barnett. Both men traveled to Washington in '06 to meet with a top Bush Administration official in an effort to get rid of US Attorney David Iglesias. Iglesias said they wanted him out because he wasn't bringing voter fraud cases against Democrats. Iglesias says there was no evidence of such fraud. His eventual firing was part of the epic US attorney scandal.

Rogers is a noted election expert who has often contracted with the state GOP to handle court cases. Barnett has been controversial for primarying fellow Republicans in 2004. His critics also maintain that Barnett continues to exert considerable influence for lobbying clients through a number of GOP legislators and fellow lobbyists. In opposing Rogers, they say they want someone in the committeeman's post who is a "true volunteer," not someone who makes money from the party or advances Barnett's influence.

The names of a couple of other potential committeeman candidates are circulating, but nothing firm yet.

MOVING ON MCCAIN

A hard hitting ad from MoveOn.org is getting the attention of NM GOP Chairman Allen Weh who decried it as a distortion of John McCain's statements. The ad is airing here and other states and will be one of many this election year financed by third party groups who want in on the action. Says Weh: "(McCain) clearly did not mean that we're going to be fighting combat operations (in Iraq) for 100 years. That isn't what he said. I think it's absolutely disingenuous."

We have news, Mr. Chairman. The American people are telling the pollsters and politicans they don't want to be in Iraq for 100 years under any conditions--whether combat or "peacetime." That's why this ad seems likely to draw blood. Take a look.

CARRARO SURFACES

ABQ GOP congressional contender Joe Carraro doesn't have a lot of campaign cash, but what he does have he is putting to use. TV insiders confirm that Carraro went on the air Wednesday with a small one week buy of under $10,000. The thirty second spot touts Carraro's service as a state senator and questions the crime-fighting effectiveness of his GOP rival, Bernalillo County Sherriff Darren White. White is not yet up on TV, but is expected to be sometime this month. Here's Joe's spot:



Meantime, in the ABQ West Side State Senate district that Carraro represents, GOP candidate David Pyne came with confirmation of our Tuesday exclusive that he is getting out of the race, leaving Republican Sander Rue as the only candidate--either Dem or R--in the race. Friends of Pyne say the attorney is taking a job in Utah. Rue can start studying the state budget.

UNION MUSCLE

Candidates in a Democratic primary scramble for the endorsement of the big public employee union--AFSCME. Many of its 12,000 NM members are voters and the union can offer campaign manpower. Here are some contenders they recently backed:

Albuquerque Metropolitan Court Judge Benjamin Chavez for District Court Judge in Bernalillo County. AFSCME has also endorsed Judge Elizabeth Whitefield and Judge Clyde DeMersseman in their respective races.

In the Congressional races AFSCME has endorsed M