In the final days of Campaign '18 there's plenty of material for a Friday clippings blog. We'll also work the beat this weekend to give you analysis of the ABQ Journal poll results which will be released Saturday and Sunday. Look for that here and on Facebook.  Now on to our clips:

Our quote of the week and if you can top this one we're buying the enchiladas:

While Dem land commissioner candidate Stephanie Garcia Richard has sought to set herself apart as the advocate for animals, Dem contender George Muñoz is blunt that he would not support a ban on coyote-killing contests. “She doesn’t live in rural New Mexico,” he says of Garcia Richard. “She’s never had her chicken eaten by a coyote.”

Hold on. Stephanie grew up in Silver City in Grant County which happens to be home to lots and lots of coyotes. She's staying above the fray and not responding to this allegation George, but we can only imagine the trauma you may have caused her if, for example, she had a pet rabbit or something eaten by a coyote. Really, this negative campaigning must end for the good of all New Mexicans!

Garrett VeneKlasen is the other Dem in the land commission chase and he is traumatized over the possibility of Trump building that great wall on our southern border. He comes with another TV spot about in which he shows a ladder and says:

This is a brilliant device, designed to easily thwart Donald Trump's border wall. It's called a ladder! As Land Commissioner I will stop Trump's hateful border wall.

Come on, Garrett, That rickety old ladder you sport looks as if it couldn't support a hundred pounds. The undocumented trying to get over the great Trump wall with that thing will be flooding the injury lawyers with business. We know you're an environmentalist and like wood and stuff from nature, but please consider giving the border crossers from Mexico something sturdier, like aluminum.

INTERNATIONAL MONICA

The British tabloid Daily Mail has a field day covering the DWI arrest of ABQ GOP State Rep. Monica Youngblood. Their take is replete with unflattering pics of the rep taken from the 44 minute police lapel camera video of her arrest. Here's their headline:

'I've always stood up for you guys': Cringeworthy moment; tearful state lawmaker tries to charm officers into letting her off a DWI by telling them she doesn't believe police are racist.

Youngblood has been mum on her political plans for re-election since the scandal broke. She will be on the June 5 primary ballot unopposed. She could choose to get out of the race after that and let the GOP appoint a replacement candidate, or she could opt to stay in and be the one to face Dem candidate Karen Bash.

Meantime, the newspaper has called on Youngblood to give up her legislative seat. But NM GOP Chairman Ryan Cangiolosi continues to stay quiet about whether Youngblood ought to leave the legislature as does Gov. Martinez who has been asked for comment by the media several times. And while the state Dem Party called for an attorney general's investigation of the incident, which he will do, no leading Democratic figures have publicly commented on the Youngblood DWI arrest.

And one other note from the Monica clippings, guess who she's hired as her lawyer? You guessed right. It's Paul Kennedy, the lawyer for all things Governor Martinez and her political machine of which Monica is a charter member.

Critics will say the Kennedy hire shows that Youngblood is going to fight the DWI and does not want to take responsibility for her drinking and driving. Others will say she faces a serious charge and should have seasoned legal counsel. For sure this case is now going to be a major test for BernCo DA Raul. Torrez.

PEARCE AND MONICA

Is this a strong enough response to the Youngblood scandal from soon-to-be GOP Guv nominee Steve Pearce?:

DWI is a very serious problem in New Mexico and the law must be enforced without favoritism. Monica Youngblood needs to meet with her constituents, look them in the eye, and together decide what is right.

Why don't you tell her what is right, Steve? You are the titular head of the Republican Party and about to be its candidate for Governor? Shouldn't it be a no-brainer for you to call on her to give up her legislative seat? Where's the firm leadership you are touting in your TV ads? Is there no unifying standard of proper behavior in the Republican Party?

What if "together" they decide that it's right for her to fight tooth and nail to keep her seat in the legislature? You will agree with that?

This is a wishy-washy statement disguised in language designed to infer decisiveness. Pearce preaches moral rectitude but when it comes to one of his own, he slips into situational ethics where everyone sits around a table and decides what's right.

Steve, you're going to have to do better, a whole lot better, if you're going to have any reasonable chance at the New Mexican governorship. Don't say we didn't tell you.

CYFD VACANCIES

Dem Guv candidate Lujan Gisham said in last Sunday's TV debate that CYFD has had a vacancy rate of 26 percent and "have not done anything . . . to ensure they have the staff to respond to these serious issues." In an interview this week she said the vacancy rate at CYFD has gotten to about 12 percent, but "that is still too high when we have one of the worst child well-being issues in the country."

NM'S GREAT FUTURE

Stop the naysaying, cries reader Richard Flores to his fellow New Mexicans. He for one is reinvigorated:

 I attended the graduation ceremonies for the Anderson School of Management where my granddaughter was receiving her Bachelor's degree, and my perspective changed. I saw in that diverse group of UNM graduates the hope for our future. . .Those people that will contribute to the future of our state were on display at Johnson Gym. I worry less about the future because these young graduates restore my faith in all that is good about our state, the energy, the personal discipline, the talent, the commitment, the hard work, and especially, the diversity of our population.

What I witnessed last Saturday is the future of this state. These are the young people who will lead, who will push forth the ideas to improve our economy, change our attitudes, and who will build the infrastructure and resources to sustain our future and our quality of life. I will no longer allow myself to get stuck in the the quagmire of negative publicity about New Mexico! I am a renewed person, because every graduating class at UNM regenerates the kind of hope and energy that will shape our future for the best. Thank you UNM!

Okay, Richard, just don't let the green pastures of Denver or Austin tempt your granddaughter. She has her marching orders.
This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018

Several blog readers kicked in to finance a Wednesday night statewide robocall poll of 965 likely Democratic voters in the June 5 primary to see what the trends are in the key races with less than two weeks to go.

Not all 965 responded in all the statewide races. We did not call cell phones and some of the categories of voters (age, gender etc.) may not represent the actual turnout for the election. The ABQ Journal will release poll results Saturday and Sunday for some of the contests so it will be fun to see how this survey matches up. That being said, let's get to the action. . . .

ABQ US HOUSE-- In that too-close-to-call battle for the ABQ Dem congressional nomination, it's still too close to call but former US Attorney Damon Martinez appears to have pulled ahead. He polls at 27 percent to Antoinette Sedillo Lopez's 23 percent. Deb Haaland garners 19 percent.

Martinez has had a heavy TV buy and it is has helped moved him from the single digits in early polling to the lead in this survey. But 19 percent of the likely voters remain undecided giving Sedillo Lopez and perhaps Haaland a chance to close the gap.

Candidates Damian Lara and Paul Moya receive 5 percent and Pat Davis is at 4. Lara and Moya recently started TV so it's still an open question whether they will eat into Martinez. However, the buys are limited.

There were 305 respondents to the poll in the ABQ district. The margin of error is  plus or minus 5.8 percent.

SOUTHERN CD---Las Cruces water lawyer and former Senator Udall staffer Xochitl Torres Small is the leader here. She is commanding 44 percent of the vote, compared to Mad Hildebrandt's 16 percent. A large 40 percent of the respondents remain undecided.
Torres Small has been the favorite of national Democrats who have sent support her way. Hildebrandt argues she is more progressive but she has been slowed by a lack of resources.

GOVERNOR--In the race for the Dem nomination for Governor, there's no big surprises. Michelle Lujan Grisham sports a large lead, getting 54 percent to Jeff Apodaca's 18 and Joe Cervantes with 11 percent. 17 percent remain undecided. The race at this point seems to be whether her two opponents will be able to keep her below 50 percent Election Night. MLG performs strongest in ABQ metro and the North and weakest in the south, although she still leads there with 44 percent. The margin of error in the Guv poll is 3.14 percent.

LT. GOVERNOR--There has been little media in the race for the Dem nomination for lieutenant governor and it shows in this survey. A huge 58 percent of the respondents were undecided. However, Silver City area State Senator Howie Morales has a sizable lead among those who have made up their minds. He gets 22 percent; ABQ's Rick Miera comes with 13 and Dona Ana County Commissioner Billy Garrett receives 7 percent. Morales is up with a TV buy and had heavy support at the party's preprimary convention.

STATE AUDITOR--ABQ's Brian Colón may finally be poised to bring home a win but it's not quite over. He polls at 41 percent to 20 percent for Bill McCamley of Las Cruces. Undecided is still a hefty 39 percent. Colón is doing well in the Hispanic north. McCamley has campaigned against Trump's border wall. Colón's TV pursues a more traditional approach.

LAND COMMISSIONER--In this three way face-off environmentalist Garrett VeneKlasen appears to be in the strongest position for the primary. He is winning 34 percent of the vote to 20 percent for Stephanie Garcia Richard. George Muñoz gets 12 percent. Undecided is large at 34 percent. Muñoz recently started a heavy TV buy and hopes that will close the gap with VeneKlasen.

WHAT'S MOST IMPORTANT?

We also asked likely Dem primary voters what they thought is the most important campaign issue. Far and away it was education with 34 percent citing that issue as most important. Crime came in second at 20 percent.

We also asked what would be most important to change New Mexico's downward spiral. 28 percent said better schools and 27 percent said changing the cycle of poverty.

The full poll is here. The questions asked in the poll are here.

Rep. Youngblood on police video

Rarely, if ever, have we seen a sitting New Mexico elected official so publicly humiliated as we did with the release of the police lapel camera video of the DWI arrest of ABQ GOP State Representative Monica Youngblood.

In the 44 minute video Youngblood was not only devastated politically but personally crushed and embarrassed beyond her worst nightmare.

When police stopped Youngblood, who the AP reports was recently divorced, she explained to the officer that she was driving home after visiting her boyfriend and having a fight with him. The political devastation came as Youngblood repeatedly said she had not been drinking and the APD officer repeatedly responding that her contention could easily be proven if she would take the breathalyser test, but again and again she rejected the offer.

Then there was the bargaining with the officer in an effort to get him to back off the arrest as she sat handcuffed in his patrol car:

People tell me that you guys treat people of color like shit, and I always stand up for you guys. I stick up for you guys, and I say, you know what, they wouldn’t treat you like shit  if there wasn’t a reason. . . 

Then this politically deadly exchange: "I literally fight for you guys," Youngblood declared. “Well that doesn’t make it OK to drink and drive,” quickly responds the officer who in his report said he smelled alcohol on her breath.

After her arrest there would come crying, more pleading and the panic and fear that must have been uncomfortable for even her harshest critics to view. It was some of the more mortifying and embarrassing moments ever filmed of a public official in the long history of La Politica.

The state GOP hierarchy was stalled on facing the inevitable--getting Youngblood out of her re-election race to her Westside district as soon as the June 5 primary is over. But GOP attorney general candidate Michael Hendricks wasn't waiting as he called for Youngblood to go:

No one is above the law. Although, everyone is entitled to due process, the fact that Rep. Youngblood refused the breath test would intimate something to hide. As the Attorney General, I will fight crime, no matter who the offender. . . This is a Representative who has championed bills to increase punishment for all criminal activity, including DWI; and, this poor choice shows that the people of New Mexico cannot rely on her judgment. We cannot allow our leaders to flaunt the law in this way and expect all other citizens to abide by the law. . .I call on Monica Youngblood to resign her position as State Representative for District 68.

Top Dems have been mum on Monica, but the Dem Party did wade in a bit:

The Democratic Party is calling on Attorney General Hector Balderas to investigate Rep. Youngblood for using her position as an elected member of the legislature to attempt to influence a police investigation. . . In the video. . .Rep. Youngblood continually tells the officers she is a legislator and that she runs bills to protect police, works hard for police, and stands up for them when people say they "treat people of color like (expletive)". Youngblood asks multiple times for special treatment. . .  “Legislators should never use their position to attempt to influence police officers and I am calling on Attorney General Balderas to investigate Rep. Youngblood for her actions," said DPNM Chairwoman Marg Elliston. 

The pressure on Youngblood to get out is enormous. If she doesn't it's hard to see how the seat doesn't go to the Dems, not to mention the prolonged soap opera and additional humiliation she would endure.

Now 41, Youngblood was once considered a rising star in the Republican Party, similar in standing to Susana Martinez when she entered the statewide stage. Ironically, it was alcohol mixed with hypocrisy that undid both. For Martinez, the self-described tough on crime Governor, it was her infamous 2015 holiday pizza party from which she made an under the influence phone call demanding preferential treatment that ended her rise. Now this infamous Youngblood DWI video, from a state representative who parades about with a tough on crime platform.

Martinez never did reclaim her popularity after the pizza party. For a distraught Youngblood it's not about reclaiming her political standing, but her life.

LEGAL BEAGLE ANALYSIS 

More on Monica's case now from one of our Legal Beagles:

Joe, it seems to me that Monica’s “I regret” statement regarding her refusal to take a breath test is geared toward setting up a defense, whether at trial or outright dismissal. By making that statement, she is implying that she is not guilty. She’s saying she regrets not taking it because it would have shown she was not drinking. That’s what she is telling the public, which includes prospective jurors. 

From the video, she knew that the officer was accusing her of drinking, and she could have easily ended it right there by simply taking the test. She’s a legislator who worked on this matter, she knows. But, she knew the results would show otherwise, and that is why she refused. And her statement about bringing this matter to a “swift and just conclusion” means she’s expecting the case to go away quickly. But, not by pleading straight up to the charges, she means dismissal or a sweet plea deal. 

In my experience with thousands of DWI cases, a refusal to do a breath test was just as good to prosecutors as a case with a test result above the limit, especially when you have evidence of impaired driving and drinking like you did in the case of former Martinez cabinet secretary Ryan Flynn. That’s why there is no doubt about special privilege and connections in the Flynn case. We will see what District Attorney Torrez does with Monica. 

BernCo DA Torrez will be under even more scrutiny if  he has to deal with a fighting Youngblood. Possible Dem primary challengers to Torrez in 2020 are especially watching.

PROGRESSIVE OR NOT?

Damon Martinez

The tight as a tick race for the ABQ Dem congressional nomination has been increasingly focused on the progressive credentials of former US Attorney Damon Martinez who has emerged as one of the front-runners despite garnering only 11 percent of the March preprimary convention support where progressives held sway.

First they hit him for not being in favor of Medicare for all, but his campaign rejected that claim, saying he fully supports it and added that if given the chance he would vote for the Medicare bill sponsored by progressive Senator Bernie Sanders.

Then there's the assault weapons ban. Is Martinez for it? In making their editorial endorsement of Martinez, the ABQ Journal noted he was for banning bump stocks but did not mention assault weapons. His campaign says he is "certainly" in favor of banning
assault weapons. As for a specific piece of legislation, the campaign says when the new Congress is seated next January there will be renewed efforts to ban the weapons and he will look at the bills introduced and may even introduce one of his own.

Supporters of Martinez say the strikes against him from progressives come because he is a former prosecutor--a US Attorney--and the progressives see prosecutors as using the law against citizens. But his backers see him as a criminal justice reformer who, for example, forced change at UNM in regard to its sexual assault policies.

But the distrust lingers and his critics point to a controversial federal sting operation to thwart drug dealing in the ABQ SE Heights that ended up targeting the poorest of the poor and minorities, not heavyweight drug kingpins. They also score him over the many fatal ABQ police shootings that led to the Justice Department taking control of APD, saying he did not flex his muscle over the errant shootings when he was US Attorney. Martinez backers say he was quick to implement the Justice consent decree but add that much of the responsibility for that rests in DC not locally.

KISS OF DEATH

As for the conservative newspaper endorsing Martinez--also known jokingly as "the kiss of death"--progressives immediately decried the backing, charging yet again that it showed Martinez to be a conservative in progressive clothing. This time candidate Pat Davis did the honors:

No surprise that (they) endorsed the most conservative Democrat in our race; the same Democrat getting help from a million-dollar SuperPAC funded by Wall Street bankers and Republicans. I’ll put my endorsements from our progressive Weekly Alibi, labor, and gun violence victims, against the Journal any day. They’ll never support a gay former police officer who decriminalized marijuana, protected immigrants and - most importantly - has shown he can take on the NRA and Fox News on a national stage.

We're covering the ABQ Dem congressional primary like it's the be-all-end all because, well, it is. With all due respect to our old friend and the more than capable Janice Arnold-Jones, who will be the GOP nominee, and Libertarian Party hopeful Lloyd Princeton, the Dems have a lock on this seat that can't be picked.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018

Rep. Herrell

Monty Newman

The race for the southern GOP congressional nomination is being described by insiders as "tight" but with State Rep. Yvette Herrell having an edge over her chief rival Monty Newman, the former mayor of Hobbs.

The final two week stretch starts today and Herrell will kick it off with a new TV ad that highlights her endorsement by the NRA, but spends most of the time reinforcing her theme that she is the only true blue conservative in the race, a jab at Newman who is nowhere near as enthusiastic about Trump as she. Some of the script:

Tired of dirty politicians lying about being conservative?. . . Yvette is a proven Trump conservative, the only candidate to support President Trump from day one of his campaign.

Liberal jaws in ABQ are dropping as they hear someone so adamantly embracing Trump, but the 40,000 or so GOP voters who will cast primary ballots in the district are among his biggest fans.

Meanwhile, Newman is staying away from hot button social issues like guns and abortion which Herrell is pounding hard. In his latest ad he works to get closer to Trump on illegal immigration, saying he opposes amnesty and sanctuary cities.

Immigration polls very high in the district so Newman has picked the right target to keep pace with Herrell, but her red meat themes may drive more turnout her way.

SILENCE OVER MONICA

The talk is how there is no talk from any politico about the aggravated DWI arrest of ABQ GOP State Rep. Monica Youngblood. To our knowledge not one lawmaker--either R or D--has made a public pronouncement regarding the weekend incident in which Youngblood, a fave of Gov. Martinez, refused to take a breath test, failed field sobriety tests and was booked and released from the BernCo jail.

Not even the new chair of the NM Dem Party, Marg Elliston, seems interested in going there. Imagine if this were Texas or California. The politicos would be all over it. But New Mexico likes to keep its dysfunction quiet, part of the reason it is so dysfunctional.

Democrats are probably savoring the moment and don't want to say anything in the hope that Youngblood will not abandon her Westside legislative seat, setting it up for a Dem pick up.

Still, no comment from anyone on Youngblood's refusal to take a breath test when she sponsored legislation that would have forced anyone who refused the test to post bail or else wait and see a judge before they were let out of jail? Lucky for her it didn't pass and she was out of the pokey a mere thirty minutes after being booked.

What does Gov. Martinez think of the arrest? GOP Guv candidate Steve Pearce? House Minority Leader Gentry? Their party is fond of taking the moral high ground but not so much in this case--at least not yet.

MUNOZ PERKS UP 

State senator and Dem land commissioner hopeful George Muñoz has been taking a clubbing on the airwaves thanks to third party environmental money. In addition, his main foe--Garrett VeneKlasen--has been up with TV ads for weeks with one of them featuring an endorsement from Senator Martin Heinrich. But Muñoz has now hit the airwaves with a clever spot.

Instead of pounding on Trump, as VeneKlasen and many other Dem hopefuls are, Muñoz opts to aim his firepower at someone who is equally unpopular in Democratic circles but has flown under the radar until now. His spot says:

He stood up for our kids and took on Gov, Martinez when she tried to cut school funding. 

That's the only reference to the outgoing Governor we've seen on the primary airwaves but it could work for Muñoz. He is the more conservative of the three Dems in the race and has appeal in the rural areas of the state where Trump's support is strongest. He does not want to alienate those rural voters. But Martinez is unpopular across the board with Democrats, sporting an approval rating in the low 30's so he uses her as his foil.

By sparing Trump but emphasizing the Republican Governor Muñoz is able to show his Dem loyalty. And he needs to. At the party's March preprimary convention he managed only 17 percent delegate support, losing big to VeneKlasen and Stephanie Garcia Richard.

However, the businessman senator has put over $200,000 of personal money into the race and will have a hefty TV buy. And if he chooses he can have a sharp comeback to those attacks on him for being anti-enviro and a pal of the oil and gas industry. It's not lost on him that VeneKlasen was a Republican until June of 2015 when he registered as a Democrat. Will VeneKlasen's newfound Dem loyalty prove his undoing or will Muñoz fall to the progressive fever? Look for a close contest for this one June 5.

LIGHT GUV CHASE

State Senator and Dem Lt. Governor candidate Howie Morales is out with a bio  TV ad which will get a light buy given the modest amount of cash in his campaign coffers. Former ABQ Dem State Rep. Rick Miera and Dona Ana County Commissioner Billy Garrett are the other two contenders.

SIX MONTH UPDATE

Mayor Keller has been in office almost half a year and he gave this update to a local biz group. He cited the challenges the city faces, including crime, poverty and drug addiction. However, the speech was given prior to the scandal over a 7 year old ABQ girl being peddled for prostitution by her parents.

Interim APD Chief Mike Geier was seen as a shoo-in for the permanent position prior to the revelation that APD did not take into custody underwear of the 7 year old that could have been a key piece of evidence. Now the national search that Keller has launched for a chief takes on more meaning.

The questions for Keller is whether Geier's credibility has been irreparably damaged and whether appointing him would simply mean a continuation of the damaged culture that brought APD under the thumb of the Justice Department.

 THE BOTTOM LINES 

Two weeks to go in Primary ‘18 in what is commonly known as the “final stretch.” You might say it’s not what it used to be but it’s still pretty darn exciting. We will increase our blogging here and on Facebook to keep you up-to-date with late breaking news. And on Election Night, June 5, we will bring all the election results to you on public radio KANW 89.1 FM and kanw.com.

As usual, I have a bunch of great people helping me and making me look smarter than I really am. To alleviate my guilt over that, I will examine obscure campaign-finance reports into the wee morning hours accompanied by copious amounts of Starbucks and a Sinatra soundtrack. Hey, it’s the life we chose. Thanks for being with us for another final stretch.

Two big TV debates and the DWI arrest of an ABQ state rep tops the headlines of La Politica this busy Monday. And we're off. . .

The fast changing dynamic in that tight as a drum race for the ABQ Dem congressional nomination was on full display Sunday as the six hopefuls made their cases and sprayed criticism at one another in a 90 minute debate broadcast on KOAT.

It was the new boy on the block, Damian Lara, the ABQ immigration attorney who is himself an immigrant from Mexico, who did the most to shake things up. Repeatedly he aimed his firepower at Damon Martinez, one of the top three contenders in the six person field, threatening to peel progressive and Hispanic votes away from the former US attorney and stall what has been his impressive momentum.

Lara, who has worked for the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, the state Legislative Council Service and is president of the NM Hispanic Bar Association, has been campaigning for months but only after unveiling his first TV ad that aimed squarely at progressives with a heartfelt pitch on immigration is he garnering mainstream attention.

He was last polling in the low single digits, raising the question whether the attacks on Martinez would be enough to make him a contender in his own right or important only because he could keep Martinez from getting the nomination.

Regardless of the end game, Lara bore down on the cornerstone of Martinez's candidacy--that Martinez was "fired" by President Trump for standing up for New Mexico. Lara pointed out that the president asked for the resignations of 45 US attorneys, including Martinez's. And he sternly lectured his opponent, saying, "You make it sound like you were singled out."

Martinez responded that "when you're resignation is forced by midnight, you're being fired."

But that dismissal--made famous in Martinez's TV campaign--is the soft underbelly of the Martinez candidacy because a new president asking for the resignations of high level federal appointees, including US attorneys, is routine. And unlike the 2006 firing of former NM US Attorney David Iglesias and several others, Martinez's dismissal was not enveloped in scandal and congressional investigations.

Lara also hammered Martinez over $500,000 in what he called "dark money" that has come into the race via paid media for Martinez. He asked whether Martinez "could be trusted" because the donors to the PACS are unknown. Martinez, who was a Judge Advocate in the U.S. Army Reserve and then transferred to the NM National Guard, responded that he is honored to have the support of veterans' groups who are sponsoring the out-of-state super PACs.

In his closing statement Lara got in his final jab, pointing out that ABQ is enduring a record crime wave, despite Martinez's contention that as US attorney he was a bona fide crime fighter.

Martinez only scored 11 percent of the delegates at the Dem March pre-primary convention, signaling that his support among hard-core progressive Democrats is weak. Since then he has vigorously represented himself as a "progressive." It is the uncertainty of that identity that Lara pounded away at, and if he does it in TV spots it could have a significant impact on this race.

The third party TV support for Martinez is nearly overwhelming and could keep Martinez afloat but Lara, who was joined in his jabbing of Martinez by Paul Moya, laid bare just how much this race remains up in the air.

MOYA MOVES

We blogged late last week that Moya, a 30 year old making his first run for political office, has not been on TV but his campaign reports he started his TV buy May 11. Here is his ad. Moya is a Valencia County native who grew up on an alfalfa farm and went on to Notre Dame and Harvard and today is a business consultant. He also poked at Martinez over his assertion that he had been fired by Trump.

DEM GUV DEBATE

The optics were surely interesting and accurate. Frontrunner Michelle Lujan Grisham sat in the middle and on each side of her sat one of her underdog foes for the Dem Guv nomination--Jeff Apodaca and Joe Cervantes. They repeatedly fired charges at her--and we mean repeatedly--which is covered here. The foes did their homework. But she survived without losing her cool and causing a viral moment, about the only thing in her path from securing the nod. Not that she didn't have to work on it. Her frustration was palpable if not audible. The full debate is here. There will be no more TV debates before the June 5 primary.

He's got a long way to go and a short time to get there. So Joe Cervantes finally took his first step to take Michelle Lujan Grisham down a notch. Actually, it's about 30 notches if the polls in the Dem chase for the '18 gubernatorial nomination have it right.

Cervantes negative TV ad on MLG was not a given. His supporters were nervous that the low-key state senator would take his lumps and hope for the best. But then there's that $2 million he loaned his campaign. What good does that do him in the First National Bank of Joe? So out came the cash and onto the TV screens came this:

Who's Michelle Lujan Grisham working for? Not us. Since going to DC Grisham has made a bundle off government contacts. Her campaigns have been bankrolled by $2.7 million in out of state contributions. Michelle Lujan Grisham even voted with Republicans to repeal part of Obamacare and benefit the wealthy. And now she wants to come back to be our Governor? That definitely doesn't work for us. 

The ad was on point but not harsh by today's standards, reflecting the personality of Cervantes who has never been one to go for the jugular, but favors the slow kill.

But slow is an issue here. His problem is not money but time. He was goaded by supporters to start his campaign much earlier and not let MLG build the lead she nurses today. He now will try to tear down in three weeks what she has spent over a year building. The moment did not go unnoticed at her campaign:

This ad is ridiculous and full of falsehoods. Congresswoman Lujan Grisham ran a patient advocacy company designed to help people get affordable care. Her small business didn’t make a “bundle” on state or federal contracts. This business saves peoples lives by helping vulnerable patients get health care after being denied coverage by insurance companies. . . 

Additionally, Congresswoman Lujan Grisham has voted over 30 times to save Obamacare from Republicans like Steve Pearce who voted for the Trump/GOP health care bill to take health insurance away from hundreds of thousands of New Mexicans. Michelle has fought to save people’s health care and will fight to expand affordable care for all New Mexicans. False attacks from her opponents won't change that fact.

The third player, Jeff Apodaca, doesn't have the money to join the hit parade. He is left to hope that voters the Cervantes' ad plies loose from MLG might fall his way.

Antoinette Sedillo Lopez has come on strong of late in that crowded contest for the Democratic nomination for the ABQ area US House seat and with that newfound status come the attacks. The first one has already hit the mailboxes.

A super PAC funded by heavyweight financial types, including uber-wealthy hedge fund managers, slammed Sedillo Lopez with this mailer that scorches her on two fronts--for supporting Medicare for all which the "Forward Not Back" PAC says would cost families $7700 a year and for failing to paying her taxes on time seven times.

Sedillo Lopez campaign struck back calling the charges a "baseless smear by an out of state group with close ties to the Republicans."

The PAC says on its one page website that it supports "progressive leadership" but that's a front, says the Sedillo Lopez campaign, who believe her progressive policies have inflamed the group and they want her gone.

Reader "Westside Alligator" comes with this research from CNN Money:

What is Forward Not Back? Apparently, they are part of a larger PAC called No Labels which has the stated purpose of supporting "moderate" candidates in primaries including present office holders both Democratic and Republican.

Sedillo Lopez is an ardent advocate of Medicare for all and the cost of that is highly debatable. As for failing to pay her taxes, her campaign spokesman says she was indeed late paying property taxes seven times on rental properties. But adds:

BernCo taxpayers are asked to pay their property tax bills in two payments five months apart or pay them in full upon receipt of the bill. For several years (Sedillo Lopez and her husband Victor) did not pay their tax until the final deadline in April when they paid all that was owed. They were fined small penalties for not making any first half payments. The taxes have been and are completely paid.

Blog readers were on red alert over the first negative campaigning in the so far slow moving ABQ race. They noted that the national super PAC attackers had about $1 million in cash on hand at the end of March and that one of its donors has a big NM connection. He is Louis Moore Bacon, the billionaire hedge fund manager who in 2013 bought Taos Ski Valley.

Sedillo-Lopez's campaign says they did a data check and matched the super PAC donors with donations made to Republican candidates and causes.

WHO DO THEY WANT?

So what is this out of state apparently conservative PAC doing putting their noses under the ABQ US House tent? Obviously they don't like Bernie Sanders' Medicare for all plan that Sedillo Lopez has endorsed so they are trying to take her out. But who they want in is an even more important question.

Maybe contender Damon Martinez who is seen as the more moderate of the frontrunners, even though like Sedillo Lopez, Deb Haaland and Pat Davis he says he supports Medicare for all. We double checked with him:

Health care is a human right, which is why I will support Medicare for All and single-payer health care.

Another third party group is already up on TV with a heavy buy for the former US Attorney. In any event, the leading theory among the Alligators is that Martinez may be the intended beneficiary of the super PAC hit--if they have one in mind.

RACE WATCH

As for where the race stands, it appears very tight. The news is that Damon Martinez appears to be displacing Deb Haaland in second and some polling indicates he could even narrowly be in first. Sedillio Lopez is perched right at the top with him or a notch ahead, depending on which poll you're reading.

As we said, Martinez is on TV in a big way and dominating the air. Sedillo Lopez has heavy TV as well, but she has also dropped at least a half dozen mail pieces to likely Dem voters. Haaland is stalled out and appears to need a new angle to prevent a fade. Pat Davis is in single digits and the kerfuffle over his controversial NRA ad may have hurt more than it helped.

DAMON MEET DAMIAN

Lara

Everyone and their brother has forgotten about candidates Paul Moya and Damian Lara but get this--one or both of them could spoil this race for hard-charging Damon Martinez.

As of March 31 Moya had $156,000 in cash on hand and Lara had $139,000  Neither has spent barely a dime since then. That kind of money could give them a more than healthy TV presence for the final ten days of the campaign.

And this just in: Damian Lara, 40, is going up on TV today with this spot highlighting his immigrant background and how he worked in the agricultural fields before realizing his dream of becoming an attorney. He also takes a bite out of Trump's immigration policies. The campaign says it has up "a six figure buy" for the June 5 primary.

We're still waiting on any TV from Moya who lent his campaign most of the cash he has.

Will Lara (and possibly Moya) now start to peel enough votes away from Martinez, leaving the battle to Sedillo Lopez and Haaland? They could. Yet another angle in this six way race.

TUCKER VS. DAVIS

Conservative Fox News host Tucker Carlson ripped into ABQ Dem congressional candidate Pat Davis during an interview Tuesday about Davis' anti-NRA ad in which he says "Fuck the NRA." Carlson holds nothing back. The not-so-pretty scalding is here.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018

State Rep. Herrell

The GOP nomination for the southern congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Steve Pearce appears to be slipping into the corner of State Rep. Yvette Herrell.

She comes with a bold and unapologetic debut TV ad backing President Trump and in which she is proudly labeled a "conservative" five times in 30 seconds.

The phrase "game-changer" is overworked but this seems like one.

Herrell of Alamogordo aced Monty Newman, her chief rival, at the March GOP preprimary convention when she landslided him 58 to 26 percent. But Newman, a successful realtor and former Hobbs Mayor, was still seen as a potential threat because of his large campaign war chest and name ID. Now not as much.

Newman's first TV spot was mild compared to Herrell's, focusing heavily on his son's service in Iraq but offered no real emotional connection for the audience. Newman offered little red meat to the Trump base that commands southern Republicans. Herrell has now stepped in to throw that red meat and by doing so she may have shut this race down.

She flings it all out there--that she is a "pro-life Christian" "a Trump conservative" and "despises" big government. All of it is music to the ears of the base GOP vote.

Herrell critics are raising questions about her claim in the ad that "she fought to cut taxes" and her legislative record on the matter is a matter of debate.

Newman insisted on hiring Jay McCleskey, the media wizard for Governor Martinez who earned himself the title "Shadow Governor" for his outsized influence in her administration. But McCleskey has made so many enemies within the GOP that Newman was abandoned by many who would normally support him. Now he faces a decision on whether to unleash McCleskey to let him wage one of his well-known slash and burn campaigns against Herrell in an effort to turn the tide. The task is made more difficult by this Herrell spot. An attack on her at this point could be seen as an attack on the President who she is giving her full backing while Newman hesitates on that score.

As for the November election, it appears it will be Herrell vs Las Cruces water attorney  and rising Democratic star Xochitl Torres Small, but Herrell's able handling of her TV debut is giving pause to some Dem analysts. They still see Torres Small as a strong candidate, but Herrell's unabashed embrace of conservatives in a district with plenty of them and a large bible belt to boot, remind them of how difficult it will be for the Dems to pull off the upset.

FOLLOWING THE MONEY 

The candidates came with their latest finance reports for Primary '18 Monday. It covered the period April 3 thru May 7. All reports are here and here's the analysis:

GUV---Michelle Lujan Grisham raised more money during the period but also bought TV and her cash balance ended at $1.6 million down from $1.8 million in her last report. For now that's way more than enough.

Joe Cervantes loaned himself another $500,000 for a total of $2 million for the campaign. He has $1.6 million in cash but probably not enough time to spend it all. Jeff Apodaca has $263,000 in cash. Lujan Grisham remains the front-runner for the Dem nod. Something--something big--is going to have to happen to change that.

On the R side, wily Steve Pearce got on TV but also raised more money. He now tops the Guv field with $1.9 million in cash on hand.

More analysis from political veteran and former city councilor, state legislator and ABQ attorney Greg Payne:

Did something happen here? Wake me if it does.

LT. GOVERNOR--Dem State Senator Howie Morales reports $63,000 in cash on hand. He established himself as the frontrunner for the Dem nod and remains so. The other contenders lag. Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes is unopposed for the GOP Light Guv slot.

Payne-- It's Howie's to lose.

AG---The Balderas money train slowed some with him now reporting $903,000 in cash compared to $891,000 last time. He is unopposed for the Dem attorney general nod and a heavy favorite for re-election over  Republican Michael Hendricks. If he does win, he will sit around and think about what to run for next with all that cash. Or not.

Payne: Maybe Sen. Udall doesn't run for re-election in 2020, but I wouldn't bet $903,000 on it. 

LAND COMMISSIONER--The news on this one is that appears Rep. Stephanie Garcia Richard has been effectively knocked out of the Dem nomination chase. She had one more shot to raise the dough but came with just $31,000 in cash on hand. She won't have a statewide presence, leaving the race to environmentalist Garret VeneKlasen and State Senator George Munoz. VeneKlasen reports $73,000 on hand but has had a healthy media presence before spending that money and a third party group is nuking Munoz. The Senator reports $210,000 in cash, most of which he lent himself. This one is only going to get more interesting.

Pat Lyons is the lone R seeking the nomination.

Payne: The enviros and Sen. Heinrich are pushing hard for VeneKlasen. That may be enough for him.

STATE AUDITOR--Bill McCamley lent himself $45,000 and started his campaign for the Dem state auditor nomination earlier than ABQ's Brian Colón. McCamley, a Las Cruces are state rep has already made a decent TV buy and Colón did not bury him in a cash pile.

McCamley reported only $17,000 in cash on hand but he has purchased TV time and production of $120,000. Colón reports $123,000 in cash but had not yet reported his TV buy. A friend says he bought a buy similar to McCamley so his cash is probably in the 20's now.

If McCamley's ad against the Trump wall brings out the progressives in a big way, he has a shot. If the race breaks with an ethnic advantage for Colón, he will win.

Payne: Joe, you said the McCamley TV ad was a bit off the wall, but it connects with progressives and Hispanics. He could crash Brian's party in BernCo and the north. Keep an eye on this one. 

Point taken, Greg, And we just looked at some insider polling that shows more likely Dem primary voters identify as progressives or liberals this cycle than in the past.

On another note, we're pleased to report Greg will join us on Primary Election Night June 5 on KANW 89.1 FM radio and kanw.com to analyze the results as they roll in.

CARL AND ANDREA-- Santa Fe County State Rep. Carl Trujillo is going to outspend Andrea Trujillo in the final stretch but not by very much. Will that make the difference in this Dem primary race that has captured statewide attention, with Trujillo being accused of sex harassment and Romero charged with unethically handling public funds? Romero has $28,000 in cash. Trujillo has $35,000 and spent the same amount in the reporting period. As they say on the playground, they are about to nuke the snot out of each other. Voters, hide if you can.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY

Our onetime boss, former ABQ GOP Congressman and Secretary of the Interior Manuel Lujan Jr., turned 90 this week. Here's a pic of him on his special day, sporting his usual smile and exuding optimism. Those were qualities that helped him keep the ABQ congressional seat in the Republican column for 20 years. In 1989 he began a four year run as Secretary of Interior under the first President Bush.

After leaving government Lujan concentrated on business interests and lobbying. He and his wife Jeanne live in ABQ and stay busy today with their large family. We assume he is closely following the race for Governor in which his cousin, Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham, is playing a prominent role. But that doesn't mean he'll vote Democratic. You'll have to ask him. Happy Birthday, Congressman.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2018