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Thursday, July 29, 2010Big Bill: A Lame Duck With Some Quack; Border Confab To Come In Middle Of Campaign, Plus: Dueling Guv Agendas: Corruption and Economy They may be drawing nasty cartoons about him and eager to show him the door, but lame duck Governor Big Bill still has some time on the clock, and the campaign combat veteran will put it to good use as he works to prevent the Republicans from taking over his Fourth Floor office.Richardson showed his campaign game is not rusty when he came with this announcement: Governor Richardson and California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger announced that they will co-host an interim meeting of the Border Governors Conference on September 19-20th in Santa Fe... The agenda for the one-and-a-half day meeting will focus on the key issues of border security, economic development and energy. The meeting will bridge the gap between last year’s conference in Nuevo Leon and next year’s meeting in Baja California, as this year’s conference in Arizona was cancelled. The conference with the celebrity California Governor is going to gobble up two days of the state's news cycle smack dab in the middle of the Guv campaign between Dem Diane Denish and Susana Martinez. For a change, it's going to be positive coverage for Richardson who is being pummeled in those Martinez TV ads. Martinez and the R's are attacking Richardson with impunity, believing the seamy side of his administration is their ticket to power. But he just took 48 hours away from them in the middle of September. Richardson's early June approval rating was at 43% and disapproval at 57%. He would love nothing more than to finish his term at or near the 50% mark. That's going to be tough when you are getting creamed daily on TV as well as in the press. But the border announcement shows the duck sitting in Santa Fe may be lame, but it still has some quack in it. OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS On the subject of border security and immigration, is there an opportunity here for Denish? A new CNN poll shows a whopping 71% of Hispanics oppose the controversial Arizona immigration law:A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey also indicates that Hispanic and whites don't see eye to eye over the law. Fifty-five percent of people questioned in the poll say they favor the measure, with four in 10 saying they oppose the law. Thirty-four percent of white respondents oppose the measure, but among Hispanics, that number jumps to 71 percent. Susana Martinez has not endorsed the Arizona measure, which has been partially blocked from taking effect by a federal court, but has been sympathetic. Otherwise, she's been tough as nails on the immigration issue, saying those in the country illegally need to be sent back to where they came from. This cuts her way with many Anglo GOP voters, but Denish and the Dems would seem positioned to make trouble for her up North. That could help blockade movement to Martinez among Hispanic Dems. Here's some KOB-TV news coverage that includes interviews with Denish and Martinez. By the way, eighty-one percent of people questioned in the CNN poll say they support creating a program that would allow illegal immigrants already living in the U.S. for a number of years to stay here and apply to legally remain in this country permanently if they had a job and paid back taxes, with 19 percent opposed to such a plan. Martinez is with the 19%. DUELING AGENDAS  Wednesday gave us a good example of how the Guv campaign is dividing. Martinez came with this:Susana Martinez's Plan to Crack Down on Corruption; A Bold Agenda for Fighting Corruption And Denish came with this: Diane Denish to Announce New Plan to Create High Tech & Renewable Energy Jobs to Fuel New Mexico's Economic Recovery Which issue has the most sway with undecided voters? That's the question, isn't it? Here is Martinez's anti-corruption plan. She's calling for a public corruption division within the NM State Police. Here's long-form video of the downtown ABQ news conference. We did not spot any TV news coverage of the event. If you have not seen much of Martinez outside of her campaign ads--and many have not--this nine minutes gives you an idea of how she handles herself. Her style is prosecutorial and somewhat pedagogic--appropriate enough for a district attorney, which she is, but less effective in a political candidate. There is a rigidness in presentation here that we first noted when we watched her on a primary TV debate. Denish, in the game now for several decades, is more practiced and laid back. Our sense is she will press for engagements with Martinez to showcase the difference. (Of course, if one of the candidates were to break out in the polls, they would try to run and hide away.) Martinez is at home with the corruption topic and there is more meat on the bones of this plan than her economic agenda. The danger for her is that she often seems more in tune for the job of attorney general or US attorney than that of governor. For Denish, the prospective pitfall is that she talks about creating all these new jobs, but she's been in office for eight years. A JETLESS GUV? That state jet that has caused Big Bill so many PR problems would be departing its hangar for good if Susana Martinez gets elected. She says she would sell the sleek aircraft. Her comments come in the wake of a TV news investigative report on alleged abuse of the plane. Dem Diane Denish probably won't sell the jet if she takes over but she's probably so snake-bit about using it, the jet would get used about as much as your grandma's Oldsmobile. Don't fret over how the new governor will go to and fro. The jet may be put on cinder blocks or sold, but there are other state planes available to ferry Di or Susana around. But just in case, the ladies might want to learn how to change a flat SUV tire. The way the state economy is going voters may hijack all the state planes. This is an emotional issue but in the larger scheme of things $1.6 million over four years for flights from the state's fleet--or $400,000 a year--is not outrageous. Readers remind us that the planes are used often to fly visually impaired New Mexicans in need of medical care back and forth from Alamogordo where the state school for blind is located. There are other legitimate uses for the aircraft--natural disasters, for example--that allow the state to respond to urgent needs. FOLEY WATCH  It does not appear a political comeback attempt is in the cards this summer for former Roswell GOP state Rep. Dan Foley. One of the Alligators monitoring the action reports:My info is that Dan won't run for the Rio Rancho legislative seat held by Democrat Jack Thomas. He switched insurance companies and his new employer says he can be politically active but can't run for office. So unless he decides to switch employers again... Foley was the House Minority Whip before he lost his seat in 2008 to fellow R Dennis Kintigh. Tonia Harris was the GOP candidate challenging Thomas, but she has withdrawn. The Sandoval County GOP Central Committee is expected to name Tim Lewis, brother of ABQ GOP City Councilor Dan Lewis, as Thomas's new challenger. The seat is in a swing district. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, July 28, 201097 Days To Go; We Have The Latest Campaign Action, Plus: Di's Toughest Opponent: The Economy, And: Even More Summertime La Politica Now just 97 days before Election Day and less than that before early voting kicks in. Let's head out to the trail...It is essential that Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish corral the lion's share of the Hispanic vote. GOP contender Susana Martinez has a natural entree to that group. Di has in rotation a TV spot aimed at Hispanic women. Now she has launched "Hermanas Para Diane," (sisters of Diane) to bond with a group Dems fear could stray to the R's. The kick-off is this Saturday and is headlined by LaDonna Giron, Romaine Serna and Lorraine Aranda. They write: "Hermanas para Diane” was established by a group of strong Hispanic women who endorse and support Diane Denish. We believe in her platform that emphasizes strengthening the economy, supporting small businesses including those businesses owned and operated by women, and making decisions with a focus on the well being of our families.... Denish also continues to court the "young professional" vote. We (half-jokingly) pointed out that we didn't think Santa Fe attorney Geno Zamora, now over 40, and ABQ State Rep. Al Park, also past the 40 mark, qualified as "young," even though both were listed as such on a Di invite. Now Zamora comes with the latest: Joe, thanks to your investigative coverage this past spring, Denish events that I and people of my age co-sponsor now contain the language "young-ish or young feeling professional event." Thanks, Joe. Obviously, you didn't ask my wife's opinion. She thinks I still act like a child.... Indeed, the language on Di's latest youth invite has changed. It reads: Please join us for apps and drinks at the Santa Fe young, young-ish or young-feeling professionals event in support of Lt. Governor Diane Denish July 29, 5:30-7:00 pm @ The Railyard Restaurant 530 south Guadalupe Street. Suggested Contribution: $25 -$500. RSVP to: Kate Ferlic (505) 699-0705 Kate.ferlic@gmail.com Thanks for the update, Geno. We'll see you in the prune juice aisle at Whole Foods. IT'S THE NEWS It is the news backdrop that is Di's most powerful opponent. Consumer confidence continues to flat line or sink and then there's dreary news like this:New Mexico’s national ranking slid to 46th in this year’s KIDS COUNT Data Book; down from last year’s 43rd. The report...ranks the states on ten indicators of child well-being, ranging from the prevalence of low birth-weight babies to child poverty and teen death rates. New Mexico has ranked in the bottom ten since the Annie E. Casey Foundation began issuing the report in 1990, and more often than not in the bottom five. All that bull market money we had coming in to state coffers and so little to show for it. Eric Griego, ABQ Dem state senator and executive director for NM Voices for Children, pointed out: Although New Mexico’s overall poverty rate for children under age 18 is at 24 percent, the situation is worse for children of color--with 40 percent of Native American children in poverty, 30 percent of Hispanic children, and 25 percent of African American children. Nationally, greater percentages of Native American, African American, and Hispanic children live without securely employed parents than Asian and non-Hispanic white peers. Jobs for the parents and more early childhood intervention are possible answers. And New Mexico Health Secretary Alfredo Vigil, MD reports that compared to 2000, we have made marked progress in lowering the teen birth rate and our infant mortality rate. Camp Martinez, now watching the news closer than Sherlock Holmes looking for clues in a murder case, swung hard at the poverty report: As governor, Susana Martinez will not accept or tolerate mediocrity and will stand up and defend children as she has done her entire career as Doña Ana County’s District Attorney. Today’s news is deplorable and further proof that every New Mexican, including our children, deserve a state government that functions properly and is able to deliver real results. For that reason, New Mexico is demanding bold change and will support Susana Martinez this November... The problem for Martinez? What constitutes "bold change?" What will she do differently? Specific programs? Budgets? Goals? Specificity and attention to detail remain her Achilles Heel, even as the day to day news breaks her way.  Continuing on the econ beat, Dr. Moises Venegas drew some immediate reaction when he emailed our blog:“Why is there such poverty in NM and why have we had it so long? We will soon be celebrating 100 years of poverty as a state. Why do we not compare with our good neighbor states but find ourselves in the good company of the South? Are there patterns of poverty in NM, or as some Americans say, "they just do not want to work." Republican Tony Olmi stepped up: Joe, you might ask him who has had control of the Roundhouse and state government for 80 years and what he would propose NM should do differently to escape the Culture of Poverty. Who is stepping on whose shoe laces? And reader Peter Ives came with this: I sympathize with Dr. Venegas on the plight of our poor folks, but it's not for lack of any research being done. He could pop on over to UNM and read "Poverty in New Mexico: Who Are the Poor" by Adelamar Alcantara from 1997... In addition, there are many social and economic statistics published by UNM's Bureau of Business & Economic Research...I wonder if any of our politicians has "Poverty in NM" on their shelf--or has even read it? Thanks, Peter. If it doesn't fit in a thirty second campaign spot, the cynical side of us says it probably doesn't get read. ON TOP OF IT? Are the Feds on top of this? ABQ-based First State Bancorporation has lost its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange because its stock price has traded below $1 for too long a period. We've asked before why this bank that is saddled with sour real estate loans that are not coming back hasn't been shut down and/or merged by the Feds with a more healthy bank? Guess we're asking again before the loans explode and more damage is done.
THE BEAR MARKET If some of the many stubborn home sellers in New Mexico would start to crack under the pressure and lower asking prices, we could get to where we are going to--and where we have to go--that much quicker. We could then start rebuilding from the greatest housing bubble in state history.Housing prices are set to decline for at least another year. But Santa Fe's inexorable decline is slow: ...The median sales price of houses sold in the city dropped from $307,500 to $288,000 in the second quarter of 2010. In Santa Fe County at the same time period, the median price of a home fell to $411,250 from $450,000. These are still bizarre prices. Before this savage and epic bear market is through (it will be years) we expect the median price in the city of Santa Fe to flirt with the $200,000 level and the county median (held up in part by those Texans' million dollar mansions) to head toward the $300,000 area. When it does, the bubble will finally be burst and a new and saner era in housing can begin. We hope. #9  It's the ninth officer-involved shooting of the year in ABQ, a subject we blogged on June 16th.. Is Mayor Berry counting? He recently touted the arrest rate for property crime offenders, but this rate of shootings prompts a new round of questions. As we've said before, if the mayor, APD Chief Schulz and Public Safety Director White don't get a handle on this, the trial lawyers will. If and when the public has to start paying out, that's when the mayor will find that this story has more political punch than he thinks and that efforts to dismiss it are ill-advised.KOB-TV reported that the police involved shooting rate in ABQ is much higher than other comparable sized cities. However, the link to the story was not working at blog deadline time. BOXING MATCH? The news that Jake Martinez, father of GOP Guv contender Susana, was a three time Texas amateur lightweight boxing champ, brought an email from Ernesto Baca who wondered if Jake had ever boxed Diane Denish's Uncle Bill. He sent this bio info: Born in Greeley, Colorado in 1920, Bill lived with his family in Omaha, Nebraska and Council Bluffs, Iowa as a child. The family moved to Hobbs, New Mexico when Bill was a teenager, and he attended the New Mexico Military Institute in nearby Roswell. As a young man, he was an undefeated Golden Gloves Champion of New Mexico. New Mexicans and Texans have been beating up on one another for generations but even though Martinez is a native of El Paso, it's hard for Denish to take advantage. She's a native of Hobbs, also known as "Little Texas" to political old timers. THE BOTTOM LINES  There are--count 'em--12 candidates running in the Aug. 3 primary election for president of the Navajo Nation. The two winners will select running mates for the race for the office, which will be decided in the Nov. 2 general election.Dems like that because NM Navajos are reliable D's. The more interested in voting, the better for them.... We blogged Tuesday that a poll conducted this month by Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich showed him 13 points ahead, but it was actually 12 points... This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Tuesday, July 27, 2010National GOP Chairman To ABQ For Susana, Plus: Heinrich's Summer Scare; Barela Leads In Poll, And: Browbeating Big Bill
RNC Chairman Steele
  Only yesterday we speculated about the big guns that would be brought to bear on the 2010 New Mexico Guv race. Now comes word that Susana Martinez is about to fire one off. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele will appear as a special guest at a fund-raising reception to be held this Thursday at the ABQ home of GOP Light Guv candidate John Sanchez. (The invite is posted here. Click to enlarge.)VIP tickets are going for $1,000 a couple and $250 a person for the general reception. Susana could use the cash. Dem nominee Diane Denish reported $2.2 million in the bank at the end of June while Susana barely topped $130,000 after an expensive primary battle. Tickets for the event featuring Steele are available by calling 575-636-5844. Martinez is a candidate with potential political sex appeal for the power starved Republicans. She would be America's first Hispanic female Governor and the GOP needs to start focusing on that to create excitement. So far, however, her TV ads have been solely about hitting Dem nominee Denish. The state (and the nation) awaits a more positive and uplifting profile of this unusual standard bearer. Steele might give that a kick start in his speech to the party faithful Thursday. Steele's tenure at the national party has been marked by a series of controversies. The latest over his remark that the war in Afghanistan was "a war of Obama's choosing" and that it is failing. His appearance here will help Martinez raise money and her profile in the state's media and population center. HEINRICH'S SUMMER SCARE Barela and Heinrich   They dropped their fishing rods and golf clubs when they heard this one--a new poll shows Republican Jon Barela leading Democratic US Rep. Martin Heinrich 51% to 45% with 4% undecided in the race for the ABQ congressional seat.Say what? Didn't Heinrich beat Darren White by 12 points in 2008 to become the first Dem to take the ABQ seat? And didn't Heinrich release a poll of his own May 2 that showed him in good shape, beating Barela 55% to 38%? And didn't a February PPP poll also put Heinrich ahead 45% to 36%? The SurveyUSA poll (MOE + or 4.2%) conducted among 559 likely voters July 22-25 for KOB-TV shook the lemonade stands from here to D.C, and left the pundits--including yours truly--scrambling for explanations. There are several. First off, if this poll has captured something, it might be an anti-incumbent trend among voters. It can't be a vote for Jon Barela because he has done no TV ads, no significant newspaper or media stories have been generated about him or the contest and he has never sought a major elective office in the district. But in this chaotic year voters can be of a mind to be against whoever is in office. (KOB'S Stuart Dyson has more on the polls specifics in this report.) The Heinrich camp was having none of it. The congressman's chief of staff, Steve Haro, speaking with us from the embattled halls of Congress, called the SurveyUSA poll an "outlier" and an "anomaly," citing the results from earlier polls and adding one of his own--a "benchmark poll" conducted for Heinrich July 8 through the 13th by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. That poll shows Heinrich holding on to a solid lead. From Haro on the Hill: We tested our vulnerabilities and then beat the heck out of each candidate to see where we would end up. We started out with a 12 point lead--53% to 41%. After beating one another up, we still ended with a winning margin--49% to 36%. I don't know what what is going on with the SurveyUSA poll. It is one of those outliers, an anomaly...If you believe that poll..then you have to accept the fact that this district made a 19 point swing in less than 13 days and I don't see how that is possible... Haro insisted he saw no message in the surprising findings: I don't think the poll is telling us anything...Clearly there is an anti-incumbent mood across the country, but we have a positive job approval rating--52 percent. When we ask voters what they like about Martin, they mention that he is very hard working... The Heinrich campaign released this brief polling memo. Not surprisingly Barela was milking this one for all it's worth: Washington is seriously off track. I believe that Washington is out of touch with the average New Mexico family. This far-left drift in Mr. Heinrich's voting record--97 percent of the time with (House Speaker) Nancy Pelosi--has led to higher taxes, a higher deficit and certainly higher unemployment. This was the second tidbit of recent good news for Barela. He earlier reported he has over $500,000 cash in the bank to Heinrich's $1.3 million. That's still a considerable disadvantage but enough to take advantage if something big happens. Has something big happened in in the district? Probably not. The SurveyUSA automatic phone method seems to work better when both candidates are widely known by the public. But both Barela and Heinrich will use this survey to raise money. Barela more so. And the message to Heinrich in this unsettled year is that nothing less than a picture perfect campaign will do to secure his first re-election. For Barela, the message is to get out of his headquarters and out on the streets---and onto the airwaves. TV FOR TEAGUE?  National Dems have reserved $500,000 of ABQ TV time for the final two weeks of the campaign. Most of it would likely go to help southern Dem Congressman Harry Teague who is locked in a fierce battle with Republican Steve Pearce. A final decision on whether to actually buy that air time will be based on polling closer to the election. Meanwhile, NPR comes with this coverage of the Teague-Pearce contest. Pearce played "gotcha" with Teague over that broadcast: Teague stated "we went from losing a half million [jobs] a month to having a positive increase every month. I think most people are aware of that and will vote accordingly." The Department of Workforce Solutions' release says: "The rate of over-the-year job growth, comparing June 2010 with June 2009, was negative 1.8 percent, representing a loss of 14,200 jobs...." But the Teague forces retort that NPR described how Pearce had gotten lost in Weed, NM, and they had a good laugh at his expense. It might be one of the few laughs the Dems get in this contest. Pearce is now seen as the favorite among the Alligators closely following the action. PROFILE TIME The El Paso Times comes with profiles of Guv hopefuls Dem Diane Denish and R Susana Martinez. Some highlights: State Sen. Mary Jane Garcia, D-Doña Ana, said Denish "is a person of integrity--honest, thorough, fair, and was willing to work with both parties. I also like Susana Martinez, and I think she is a good prosecutor, but that's all she knows." And from Martinez: After eight years of deplorable and unethical conduct, New Mexicans deserve a leader who will put principles before politics. My work ethic has earned respect and support across the political spectrum because I am willing to confront the most pressing challenges and work to deliver results, not excuses. TELL US WHAT YOU REALLY THINK  Now it's time for a good old fashioned summertime rage. Hold on to your iced tea, folks. Here comes reader Yolanda Acosta with bare knuckles and brass for Big Bill: I would like to have a website where citizens of New Mexico could sign their names welcoming the governors from the Border States and Mexico to the most corrupt, pay to play, bankrupt, high crime, low wages, no job creation, cronyism filled state in the nation. And let's not forget Governor Richardson is proud to proclaim he supports issuing driver's licenses to undocumented persons from Mexico, Pakistan, Syria, Iran and other countries. It doesn't matter where you are from--you want a driver's license you've come to the right state... That was so entertaining we wouldn't be surprised to hear that Susana Martinez has offered Yolanda a speech writing job. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, July 26, 2010Big Name Visitors For Guv Candidates Mulled; Will Obama Drop By? Plus: The Lewis Brothers: One On ABQ Council; Another Goes For House We've already had that other Big Bill---Bill Clinton--campaign in ABQ for Dem Guv hopeful Diane Denish, but it was a closed event. Expect to see him back here more publicly before the election, especially with his strong approval numbers among critical independents. And what about Hillary? She too could make an appearance for Denish who was an early supporter of her presidential campaign. As for the President, Obama retains popularity in the ABQ metro. We suspect a stop here and maybe in the north could be in the offing before Campaign '10 heads to the history books. And depending on how Dem Congressman Harry Teague is doing, we could also see the Prez touch down in Las Cruces. As for GOP nominee Susana Martinez, she dropped Sarah Palin on the state right before the primary. Don't expect her back in the spotlight for Susana--too polarizing. The R bench is lighter on celebrities, but we'll probably see some B-listers here before it's over. Will such visits help? The candidates can raise money from them and get supporters more enthusiastic. Denish could use Obama around the center of ABQ to spike turnout for her which is always a major concern for Dems in a mid-term election in which older and conservative voters traditionally turn out in larger numbers. A PERILOUS RACE? Some out-of-state Guv analysis from the WaP0: Doña Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez's (R) latest TV ad pretty much sums up the race: Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) is struggling to separate herself from the unpopular administration of Gov. Bill Richardson (D) while Martinez is running as an outsider who will shake up the system. Polls show the race is still neck-and-neck, but unless Denish can find a way to change the topic away from Richardson this could be perilous for Democrats in the fall. The paper ranks the 15 Guv races around the nation most likely to switch parties this fall. They put New Mexico at #15. TIMING IS EVERYTHING Corruption will continue to be a major theme of of GOP Guv nominee Martinez, but the Dems were given a break when the corruption trial of former Dem Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron was delayed until Jan. 3. That means no splashy TV and newspaper corruption stories in the middle of October. Such stories could help Martinez press her corruption case against the D's.THE NEW TONE A reader writes: Joe, There is a change in the tone of the political ads now that the mudslinging has subsided between Denish and Martinez. Denish is bringing out the Latina women to show that she might be white on the outside, but that she will be the first Latina Governor because she is more like a Latina woman. Sort of like Bill Clinton being the First Black President. On the other side, Martinez is bringing out the old stereotype of the Latina coconut, that she might be brown on the outside but trying to convince the right wing Republican that she is just as white as them on the inside. Sort of like Linda Chavez. At least they are both sticking to the fact that they are both women and not trying to be too manly! DEAR DI AND SUSANA... Reader Dr, Moises Venegas writes: The most basic question I have is, “Why is there such poverty in NM and why have we had it so long? We will soon be celebrating 100 years of poverty as a state. Why do we not compare with our good neighbor states but find ourselves in the good company of the South? Are there patterns of poverty in NM or as some Americans say,”they just do not want to work.” Diane y Susana where are you? THE LEWIS BROTHERS Tim & Dan Lewis   The move to replace Tonia Harris as the GOP candidate for the Rio Rancho state House seat held by Dem Jack Thomas gets interesting. Tim Lewis, a Cibola High school teacher and brother of ABQ west side GOP City Councilor Dan Lewis, is asking the Sandoval County GOP Central Committee to put his name on the ballot. Tonia Harris has withdrawn from the race, citing family concerns.Another name floated by the Alligators will have veteran politicos taking a second look. Former Roswell GOP State Rep. Dan Foley now lives in the Thomas district. Will he try to get appointed by the committee and go for a political comeback? Maybe, but Lewis, 47, a certified high school athletic coach and longer term resident of the Rio Rancho area than Foley would seem to have the upper hand if any contest did develop between the two. The 195 member central committee is expected to make their decision within a couple of weeks. A notable sidebar: Dan Lewis, 40, donated a kidney to older brother Tim who is now a member of the National Kidney Foundation. Also, political consultant and attorney Doug Antoon, who helped Dan Lewis win his '09 city council race, is serving as political director of the state GOP this cycle, concentrating on state House races. The politics of Dan Lewis, and we presume brother Tim, has drawn particular support from evangelical Christians who are aligned with the R's. Dan Lewis is the pastor of a west side church. Harris was considered a strong candidate because she is the widow of slain Sandoval County Sheriff's Sgt. Joe Harris who was killed in a shoot out last July with the "Cookie Bandit." District 60 seat can swing either way. Thomas took it over from Democrat Tom Swisstack in 2008 when Swisstack left it to become mayor of Rio Rancho. Expect the R's to throw some money at this one as Thomas goes for his first critical re-election test. THE BOTTOM LINES  Our Friday missive about the new and lucrative contract signed by University of new Mexico basketball Coach Steve Alford drew reader reaction, including this from ABQ's Andrew Leo Lopez wjo is squarely in the coach's cheering section:Steve Alford and other UNM coaches are among the few employees of the state of New Mexico whose work people actually pay to see. Further, the academic qualifications and performance of the student athletes attracted to UNM by Steve Alford and other UNM coaches disproportionately raises the quality of the student body. Therefore, Steve Alford and other coaches at UNM are worth the money they take home. Go Lobos! This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Friday, July 23, 2010Guv Campaign Turns To What Matters Most: Your Economic Security, Plus: Blogging Loboland; The Alford Deal; Is It Worth It? After starting out with irritating trivia over crime and punishment that induced voter ennui, the 2010 race for Governor is now fast turning to the matters of most import--jobs, the overall economy and education.This will be a three month effort by Dem Diane Denish and Republican Susana Martinez to convince voters they have their arms around the historic economic crisis that has cast a pall over the Land of Enchantment. Martinez has hit with a new TV ad blaming "Richardson-Denish" for the loss of nearly 60,000 jobs during the Great Recession. She also brings up the issue of Denish using the state jet, something she was attacked for by GOP primary candidate Allen Weh. Denish hit the air this week touting her ability to create jobs. Unlike Martinez, Denish's latest spot does not go negative. Make of that what you will. We are now on the deciding territory of this campaign. Economic issues in troubled times often favor Democrats. Martinez has stumbled out of the gate, drawing criticism for not having any in-depth ideas to get the state moving. That's a common critique of R candidates who can get caught playing the same tax cutting record over and over again. If she continues to shy away from giving specifics, she could fritter away any advantage she has in this unsettled political climate. Here's a newspaper quote from Martinez that sums up her problem: Martinez estimates that she can cut at least 5 percent of the estimated $2 billion by which state government spending has increased since Richardson took office in 2003, "This type of review is nearly impossible at the current time because the administration continues to play a shell game with state finances," Martinez said in the statement. A review is nearly impossible? With information abounding from Republican lawmakers, the Legislative Finance Committee and the press, that seems like an excuse to avoid taking any controversial stand on budget cuts. Will she be able to maintain that stand during statewide TV debates? Denish has gained the upper hand with the media, insiders and early campaign watchers by coming with specific economic proposals, including budget cuts that would make a dent in the shortfall, if not end it. Dems like to use the government to solve economic problems and Republicans don't. Denish's obstacle is having been in office as Lt. Governor during the epic downturn. Will voters want to punish the incumbent, even if she comes out on top in handling the issue on the campaign trail? HER HERO  We came first this week--courtesy of our reader/Alligators with the background of Martinez's father, Jake Martinez. He was a noted amateur boxer in El Paso who founded a security firm that eventually had a payroll "in the millions," according to articles tucked away on the web.Interestingly, when asked for a state GOP newsletter who her personal hero is, Martinez replied: "My mother." Her mother is identified in the articles we linked to as Paula Aguirre, but we've seen nothing else about her. The Martinez campaign obviously has a personal narrative to tell about their candidate who would be the first Hispanic female governor in the nation's history. But they sure aren't telling it in these early stages. Neither is the press. The newspapers are giving only spotty coverage to the campaign. This is due in part to reduced staffs as well as tradition. However, lengthy personal profiles of the GOP Guv primary contenders--a common write-up in the past--were nonexistent this year. Again, that's because of reduced staffing, particularly at the state's largest newspaper--the ABQ Journal. That has left readers (and voters) wanting. We suppose in due time the in-depth personal profiles we all await and which will tell us more about the characters of the pair will be published and broadcast. But for the first Guv campaign featuring two female contestants and one that was hyped mightily following the June 1 primary, the state's media seems somewhat disinterested in these summer months. BLOGGING LOBOLAND Steve Alford  Here are the money lines--literally--from University of New Mexico Athletic Director Paul Krebs on the handsome contract extension announced this week for Lobo basketball coach Steve Alford:Krebs said he understands the economic situation but said the money for Alford's contract comes from funds generated by the athletic department. "The more successful he is, the more we generate," Krebs said. "We only get 11 percent of our (athletic department) budget from the state, and that's not money used for salaries. Basically we're having to generate and find the monies to pay him. It's not money that could have gone to the campus community. It's not money we're receiving in lieu of an academic area. I think that's an important point to make." Alford made $1.119 million in the 2009-10 season. He could make a lot more in the new deal. Krebs was politically astute to point out Alford's compensation was--in the main--not paid for by taxpayers. Otherwise, there would be an uproar. Krebs is saying that Alford is being paid the big bucks because UNM wants to be a "national power" in basketball. This is a generations-old chimera that has led to major disappointment, not to mention the demise of more than one Lobo coach. Perhaps UNM can be a "national power" in some years, but not consistently. Recruiting limitations is the primary reason. Even Alford will find it a stumbling block as he competes for the best high school players against better known universities and athletic programs. UNM and the magic kingdom of the NCAA "Sweet Sixteen" have never been united and probably never will. If the stated goal of making UNM a national power is somewhat fantastical, it becomes difficult to justify the Alford deal. However, UNM's reputation has suffered greatly in recent years as the politicization of the institution has led to open rebellion among the prominent factions. It will take a new Governor and a new Board of Regents to return the school to some semblance of stability. Given that backdrop, Alford has been a bright spot, giving the public and the nation an example of superior achievement at UNM. How much is that worth? You be the judge. COVERING SPORTS  Covering sports full-time in ABQ has to be one of the more frustrating journalistic endeavors. We live in a mid-sized market that has no professional sports franchises of note, yet for some unfathomable reason the fans, the sports writers and TV jocks continue to bang their heads against the wall over it. They also seem to apply professional standards to the UNM Lobos as a substitute.Everyone accepts, for example, that ABQ can't be a major national convention destination because it is not large enough. Why do the sports writers and giant arena advocates believe it is any different for them? It isn't. You would think sports coverage would be more fun, but it is often a dreary and self-flagellating recounting of the inevitable setbacks that come with being in a minor league market. Why folks here trap themselves in this Sisyphusean mind-set is another of those New Mexico quirks that is as charming as it is annoying. Thanks for stopping by this week. Reporting to you from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Thursday, July 22, 2010Santa Fe's Kicked Can Shows Up At The Door; Budget Debacle Continues; More Cuts Coming, Plus: More Coverage Of The Story Of The Decade--The Great Bear Guess just what showed up at the door? Why, it's the can that got kicked down the road by the no-can-do New Mexico Legislature. As you may recall, they walked out of their last session claiming they had a balanced budget. But now come the bean counters for the Legislative Finance Committee to tell us that we have to cut over $150 million for the budget year that just got started July 1. That's because the can lawmakers kicked had printed on it "Six percent revenue growth." What's in that can anyway? Those funny mushrooms?Not to say that the no-end-in-sight-Great Recession isn't wreaking havoc with the budget. Growth is even slower than many expected. But when the lack of intestinal fortitude--a common ailment among today's political class--is allowed to go untreated, what you get is more uncertainty about public school funding as well as overall spending and tax policy. We are now witnessing a government being run on the run. In response to the shortfall, the Governor says he will slash spending by three percent across the board starting in September. Priorities? Forget it. That would take contemplation. Just take the hacksaw and hack. (More state employee furloughs could be in the cards. As for layoffs, never say never).
This time the lawmakers took no chances of having to grow some backbone. When they left Santa Fe in March they knew they were doing some serious can kicking so they gave Governor Big Bill the authority to unilaterally cut the budget before they came back into session in January. We didn't know the children's game of "you're it" qualified as legislating, but if you're already playing kick the can, what the heck. But don't shed any crocodile (or Alligator) tears for Big Bill. He went through a billion or so in state surplus dollars during his tenure (with the help of the Legislature) faster than Doug Vaughan can shout "Ponzi scheme!" Now it will be Bill's ironic duty to take out the shears. He's about as anxious for that chore as he is for another Elephant Butte boat ride. But somebody has to do it, and if you can't pull off an appointment to the Obama cabinet, or at least a summer vacation in North Korea, you get the job. A LONG WAY OUT Our Guv hopefuls--Dem Diane Denish and R Susana Martinez--are watching all this from the sidelines, but telling them that whoever wins will have less money and therefore less power than this governor is like telling a pit bull that hamburger tastes lousy. They're gonna take whatever you give them. So what will the new Guv get when they take over January 1, 2011? According to the numbers crunchers, more of the same and maybe more of it--meaning less of everything--for their entire four year term. Isn't that special? Another budget shortfall is already anticipated for the budget year that starts July 1, 2011. Of course, lawmakers could decide to stop the games of "kick the can" and "you're it" and give us a reality based budget. But that's no fun. A game of "keep away" is more in tune with the spirit of Santa Fe where Walt Disney's Magic Kingdom would feel right at home. BEAR MARKET COVERAGE  Your blog's coverage of the story of the decade continues as reader Kevin McMullan writes:Joe, Your blog last Friday summed up one big reason why NM is having major economic difficulties like being number one in jobs lost. This CNBC article shows NM to be 45th for " business friendliness." Ask your readers for examples and we will become very knowledgeable about why it is hard to do business in New Mexico. If forty-four other states can do a better job, maybe Santa Fe and city halls across the state can ask how they do it. If Colorado can be 4th, Arizona 5th and Texas 19th in business friendliness, it is no wonder we have a capital exodus and brain drain with our kids. The money, jobs and kids do not have to go very far. Thanks, Kevin. We appreciate you and the many others writing to express their concerns and offer their ideas to improve the state's economic climate. As to your point, it's true that many of our young people leave here for greener pastures. But it is not a new development under the current governor. It has been that way for decades. The reasons are numerous and include the regulatory framework you refer to. But let's not leave out our underperforming educational system that repels prospective blue-chip employers. If you educate them, they will come. Also, our dependence on government employment of all types has been a blessing as well as a curse. The government largesse has made the private sector here less than zealous in competing for capital and companies. When billions are pouring into the defense establishment every year, it can be hard to get motivated. With the private sector flat on its back, we've argued that actually working to increase the Federal presence here offers hope for job growth. It really is the foundation of the state economy. Just look at what the expansion at Cannon Air Force Base has done for the Clovis area. It is driving economic expansion in the rural area. How vibrant of a private sector New Mexico can have after lagging behind its neighbors for so many decades is questionable. But the debate is becoming more vigorous and that's a start as we face a new economic paradigm that is defying the understanding of even our state's most insightful intellects. BACK IN THE PIT  Let's stay with the reader mail bag for more thoughtful stuff. We've challenged the notion that the environmental "pit rule" has directly cost us jobs in our oil and gas industry and asked for specific examples of those lost jobs. Neither the industry or the campaign of GOP Guv hopeful Susana Martinez, who also asserts the rule cost jobs, have provided specific examples of workers being laid off or fired because of the pit rule. Now to our reader who sends this along to add fuel to the fire:If the oil and gas business in New Mexico is so bad, I wonder why Concho just paid $1.65 BILLION ($1.45 in CASH) for Marbob’s New Mexico assets, reserves, etc.: Concho Resources Inc. (NYSE: CXO) announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire all the oil and gas assets of Marbob Energy Corporation and certain affiliated entities for $1.65 billion in cash and Concho securities. Marbob is a privately-held exploration and production company with substantially all of its operations located in the Permian Basin of Southeast New Mexico... Indeed. The primary reason for the decline in oil and gas revenues is the worldwide bear market. Other reasons, at best, are ancillary. When prices go up the money flow spikes like a gusher. It's been that way--boom and bust--for the better part of 80 years. The major players in the energy industry are not talking about the pit rule. They know their history and it's demonstrated by the deal-making our reader made note of today. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Wednesday, July 21, 2010An Untold Story: The Fighter Behind Susana: Father Was Famed El Paso Boxer; The Jake Martinez Story Exclusively Here, And: NM #1 In Jobs Lost In June
Martinez, stepson Carlo (l) & husband Chuck
 Where does GOP Guv nominee Susana Martinez get her fight? Well, look no further than her father, Jake Martinez, who it turns out is an icon in the amateur boxing world in El Paso and whose life story closely tracks the American Dream of the mid-twentieth century.Our Alligators and insiders, curious about the background of the family of the Dona Ana County district attorney and unwilling to wait, came with the info on Jake Martinez's storied boxing career, combing through the catacombs of the Internet and uncovering a three part series on Jake published by the specialty boxing site, "Convicted Artist Magazine." (It has nothing to do with convicts). This is must-reading if you seek to understand more about Martinez's roots. Here are the links to the series: Part one is here. Part two is here. And part three is here. FROM THE SERIES Jake Martinez stood tall and proud as he accepted his trophy and accolades from the Fort Worth Golden Gloves staff and print media for winning three consecutive state lightweight championships. His magnificent feat has not been equaled from any El Pasoan to this date in time. He was duly honored in El Paso by The El Paso times and The El Paso Herald Post. One wonders why we haven't heard more about this from the Martinez camp as it is a compelling and uplifting life story. More from the series: Jake loved his job on the Sheriff’s Department. However, besides winning state in 1955 he and Paula had their first son, Jacob. In 1957 they welcomed a lovely daughter, Leticia. Their beautiful daughter with a thirst for knowledge, Susanna, was born in 1959. As most informed people in the southwest know, Susanna is the District Attorney in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Jake and his wife sacrificed much of their social life and nonessential items to maintain a budget that would help their children obtain a higher education. Susanna was an intellect and she attended UTEP before graduating with a law degree from Oklahoma University. In 1993, Martinez was inducted into the El Paso Athletic Hall of Fame: While reviewing records in the early days of the hall’s formation president McKay was surprised to learn that Jake Martinez had not been inducted into The El Paso Athletic Hall of Fame. Since their elections of candidates was earlier in the year Tom took Jake’s credentials to the Athletic Halls Board of Directors, presented the boxing facts and the fine citizenship of Jake and waited for their final votes. Yes, Jake was honored at their great location at UTEP in 1993 and a plaque with his name and photo is a permanent fixture in the surrounding hallways of the Don Haskins Center. FAMILY FORTUNE  And the series reveals that Jake Martinez and the Martinez family may have struggled in the early years but the security firm he eventually founded had a payroll "in the millions of dollars" putting the family in the ranks of the affluent: Jake soon left the Sheriff’s office around 1972 for greener pastures in the garment industry. He was hired as Chief of Security for Mann Manufacturing and his family benefited well from the extra dollars he earned. Life was good and Jake was able to find the time to immerse himself into his boxing sport as an official, trainer, and referee. That being said he also aspired to own his own business. After two years of research and study, Jake opened his own security company and through his entrepreneurship built the firm into a major industry with a payroll in the millions of dollars. And he accomplished those goals without giving up a minute of his boxing time. We found the Martinez business currently listed in an El Paso directory: Jake Martinez Enterprises 3535 North Yarbrough Drive El Paso, TX 79925 Industry: Detective and armored car service Martinez enlisted in the US Marine Corps in 1951. While serving he won the "All Marine Corps Boxing Championships" in 1953. He was honorably discharged in 1954. Today Jake Martinez is 78 and battling cancer as he watches the biggest fight of them all--his daughter's bid to become Governor of New Mexico. One suspects she's calling on him for some ringside advice and inspiration. DI'S DAD
The father of Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish also rose to prominence in his lifetime. Jack Daniels went to work in his father's Hobbs-based insurance company and served in the NM House for several terms. He was the Dem US Senate nominee in 1972 and lost to Pete Domenici. Daniels died in 2003 at age 79. THE BEAR MARKET  More grizzly numbers about the ferocious bear market ravaging our state came in shortly after we put up Tuesday's blog describing the damage being done here in NM's largest city. The Feds report New Mexico was number one in the USA in the percentage of jobs lost in June, at 1.4 percent. And is also the worst in the nation when it comes to percentage of jobs lost in the last 12 months, 2.2 percent or nearly 15,000 jobs.The state's jobless rate dropped in June from 8.4% to 8.2%. But don't be deceived. The reason for the decline is because the state's workforce is shrinking. People are giving up--throwing in the towel--and are quitting the search for work. We had 804,400 people working in NM in June, but that plunged to 793,200 in June, a downright scary drop. The housing debacle has sent unemployment in the construction and related industries soaring into Great Depression levels. The credit bubble has cost thousands of financial services sectors jobs; the slowdown in the energy sector contributes more lost jobs. Never mind crime, corruption and immigration. The unemployment and ancillary economic crisis wreaking havoc in this state will be front in center in the 2010 Guv campaign come October--and it ought to be. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Tuesday, July 20, 2010Bear Market Still Bearing Down On State's Largest City; What's The Outlook? Plus: Some Spark Plugs To Get Things Jumping The most vicious bear market in Albuquerque's modern history continues, seemingly unabated and defying predictions that the second half of this year would see a turnaround.Throughout the metro area "for sale" and "for lease" signs are even more ubiquitous. Home foreclosure sales take up multiple pages in the newspaper; the unemployment rate remains near 9 percent as the work force here appears to be shrinking and as population growth slows. Growth in Phoenix, Atlanta, Albuquerque, N.M., Las Vegas and Jacksonville, Fla., slowed by as much as 2.4 percentage points since 2006. Those cities were victims of a foreclosure crisis that made it harder for new residents to move in. The latest ominous developments are the collapse in public sector jobs and an ABQ office vacancy rate now approaching 20 percent--a level that is associated with depressions. Our reader email tells the tale: Joe, The only growth industry in this city right now is the people standing with liquidation and clearance signs at every major intersection. Drive down Coors Road and you'll see 10 people hawking different businesses, and not a day goes by that someone doesn't put up something on my door. The other day a financial analyst came by trying to drum up business for their local Edward Jones outlet. The fact is many people are desperate here--and even the government jobs are going the way of the dodo as the tax base is collapsing. The hiring freezes in state and city governments and the anemic growth in federal jobs is unprecedented in city history. Government makes up 20 percent of the employment base and has been a reliable career route for thousands of city residents. Making matters worse, these jobs are desirable, providing above-average pay and full health and retirement benefits. Some of this is welcomed by enviros who saw ABQ growing too rapidly, especially on the sprawling and maze-like West Side. But that doesn't obviate the very real needs of real people to have gainful employment and a decent future. WHAT'S NEXT? Where will the new jobs come from for our high school and college graduates? It has always been tough getting good work here, but public policy makers seem especially flummoxed in this cycle.There are simply no major initiatives on the table--other than perhaps to spark a small-business revival to rejuvenate the ABQ area economy. Everyone seems to be waiting for the economic cycle to turn and restore the thousands of lost jobs and replenish the drained tax coffers. But this downturn is more secular--more redefining than past recessions here. The failure of large-scale venture capital economics as seen in the collapse of Eclipse Aviation, Advent Solar and others leaves policy makers looking for alternatives that don't send them on more wild goose chases. We don't see a private sector revival that is going to replace the over 40,000 metro area jobs lost in this quasi-depression. (Well, if we have another housing and credit mania we may see it). What we have excelled at the past sixty years is providing a hospitable and productive environment for all types of Federal government installations. We may need to again look there to ensure a future employment base that is composed of more than store greeters at Wal-Mart. (Not that those Wal-Mart jobs are unwelcome). SOME SPARK PLUGS  --Give Senator Bingaman some steroids so he can muscle more federal dollars into the metro. More pork and less policy in these troubled times should be the senior senator's watch phrase. (You too, Senator Tom).--Stop the charade. Just about every major private business in ABQ depends on government contracts. Rather than make long shot gambles on biz proposals that require large taxpayer subsidies, go for those government deals from the feds--with gusto. --Build a dental school at UNM that would join the successful medical and law schools that have provided great careers for several generations of New Mexicans--right here. --Find a way to cut the business-inhibiting gross receipts tax now at 7 percent in ABQ. More reliance on property taxes and/or fees? Mayor, you figure it out. --Let's compromise. We remain unconvinced that the oil and gas industry is getting hurt because of the environmental "pit" rule. But the industry disagrees. If we're wrong, the statewide economy is getting hurt. The compromise? Give the industry a limited tax credit when complying with the rule. ---Service across the board lags for a city the size of ABQ. Business here needs to improve thereby attracting more return customers who otherwise stay away and don't spend. ---The mayor and the city's economic development department need to start addressing this downturn with more than feel-good "one stop shops" to help business cut red tape. We've been there and done that. We need development ideas, aggressive business recruitment and a general engagement of the troubled city economy, not a caretaker attitude. THE TV AND THE MONEY  We don't get another state finance report until September 13, so how Susana is doing raising the money she needs to catch Di is not readily apparent. Denish appears to be outspending her on July TV, but not by much, according to those monitoring the action. Neither campaign appears to be spending heavily. Martinez's last report had her with a paltry $300,000 on hand, her cash depleted from an expensive primary. Denish reported $2.2 million in the bank.July is one of the lowest TV viewership months of the year. Martinez can afford to go light, having tied the race up early. But even the most confident campagins are rattled when they get outspent. Martinez remains on the air with an pro-death penalty ad which confirms her campaign strategy of staying to the right. She wants to win this thing with Republicans and conservative Democrats and independents. The spot is helping consolidate them. The question is: will there be enough of them at the end? Denish continues with a soft spot that goes after Hispanic women. It is aimed at stopping Hispanic drift to Susana who could go over the top by combining her conservative voters with Hispanics who want to vote ethnically.
This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author Monday, July 19, 2010Teague Troubles Deepen: Pearce Ties Up Money Race As Other Issues Weigh On Harry; We Go In-Depth, Plus: Politics & The Personal: How Much Is Too Much? More deeply concerning news for Democrat Harry Teague as he tries to hang on to the southern congressional seat. He and his Republican challenger Steve Pearce are now nearly tied in the amount of cash each has on hand for the final phase of the campaign. Teague has $1.116 million and Pearce has $1.023 million. That is not good news for Dem incumbent Teague who faces a stiff head wind in the heavily conservative district. Perhaps even more distressing for Teague is how he was trounced in the latest quarterly fundraising. Pearce raised 46% more cash than him.Pearce has been the beneficiary of a spate of good news of late, courtesy of several articles in the Politico which has been leading the coverage on Teague's troubles. Among other things, they've revealed that Teague's net worth has plummeted to an estimated $5 million from an earlier high of $40 million. In May, Politico reported Teague's Hobbs-based energy companies dropped health insurance for 250 employees last December--in the middle of the congressional debate over Obamacare. The latest polling has the race tight, but no numbers have been released since the damaging Politico stories. Before them, an early April internal Teague poll had the congressman leading Pearce 47% to 46%. In a February Public Policy Poll (PPP) Pearce led Teague 43% to 41%. THE TEAGUE FILE  Let's list the Teague troubles that are raising even higher the already high Republican hopes to take back this seat.--The damaging political story on how Teague's companies dropped health insurance for its workers and Teague's failure to issue a public explanation. --My insiders say Pearce forces will point out that Teague took several million in profits and dividends out of his energy companies even as the employee health insurance was being canceled. --The plunge in Teague's net worth from $40 million to $5 million, raising doubt about Teague being willing or able to write himself a big campaign check if need be. He self-financed 37% of his '08 effort, writing personal checks for over $1.7 million. --Pearce outraised Teague in the latest quarter--$462,000 for Steve and $317,000 for Harry, a very dangerous trend for an incumbent. --The aforementioned parity in cash on hand for the two candidates--yet another major warning sign for Teague. --A $2.7 million civil lawsuit filed against Teague's companies for debt collection. He says the money will be paid. (The Politico also broke that story). --The GOP Guv candidacy of Susana Martinez. She is expected to have her best percentage showing in the southern district. That could help Pearce, especially in critical Dona Ana County. --Pearce is running as a quasi-incumbent. He left the House seat in 2008 to run for US Senate. Also, he hates to write a personal check, but he has the money in the bank to do so if his hand is forced. Despite Washington spin to the contrary, our Senior Alligators earlier in the year felt this race was still very much up for grabs. They rightfully pushed back against that spin. But fresh facts change opinions. Soon, the issues we note above will come into play, some of them in hard-hitting TV spots. Based on expectations of what's to come, the mounting damage to Teague in the free media, the money raised and the favorable climate for R's in the southern district, Pearce is now the clear front-runner to take the prize and Teague the decided underdog. NEW MEXICO'S DC POSITION Our state has an uncovered bet in Washington. We are all in on the Democrats staying in power. That's why a victory by Republican Pearce may not be all that hard to swallow for the state's establishment. With the possibility of a GOP takeover of the US House this November, having a Republican there would give us a go-to guy with the new speaker and leadership.Also, if the White House were to tip to the R's in 2012, the state would have entree through Pearce. With billions of federal money at stake this is a cold-eyed, nonpartisan calculation. This isn't the type of argument that is going to get much attention from voters, but it is what you hear at the upper reaches of the state's business and government leadership. They're not necessarily concerned about what political party appropriates the cash, but that the cash continues to get appropriated. THE ALL DEM DELEGATION If Pearce does take back the southern seat, the all-Democratic domination of the state's five member congressional delegation will be short lived--just as short-lived as it was when the Republicans shut out the Democrats in the delegation in 1981-82. That was the last time before 2009 that one party held all of our DC seats. Back then, there were four delegation members--two in the House and two in the Senate. Joe Skeen replaced Dem US Rep. Harold Runnels in the 1980 election making for an all R delegation. It included Senators Domenici and Schmitt and GOP Rep. Manuel Lujan. The R shut-out ended in 1982 when Dem Jeff Bingaman was elected Senator. Twenty-six years later, as a result of the 2008 election, the Dems made it all their party with the Teague win. He joined Dem Reps. Henrich and Lujan and Dem Senators Bingaman and Udall. RIBBING SUSANA  The state Dems are up with a web site dubbed "Say What Susana?" They post what they see as campaign flubs by the GOP Guv hopeful. The R's probably aren't far behind in getting a Di site up. The D's effort doesn't appear personal or mean-spirited. That's a relief.WEH AND SUSANA A reader writes: So it’s been a month and a half now since the primary--at what point does it start getting odd that Susana Martinez’s GOP primary opponents haven’t endorsed her, particularly Allen Weh? Well, the bad blood between those two is thick so there may be no endorsement. In fact, today it looks about as likely as Diane D inviting Big Bill to a news conference to formally endorse her candidacy. MAKING IT CLEAR From Las Cruces, Democratic State Rep. Joe Cervantes writes: The link you put up on your Thursday blog to an article about Susan Martinez and her husband Chuck Franco that ran last year was about political spouses. It included not only Chuck, but also my wife, Jennifer, (on the left in the photo) and also Susan Chaparro, wife of Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima. I'm receiving calls because folks reading your blog have misinterpreted the photo as Jennifer endorsing Susana. In fact Jennifer and one of my daughters enjoyed a terrific lunch with Diane hosted by Clara Apodaca last month at La Posta. She thinks Diane will be terrific as New Mexico’s first woman Governor. Cervantes is seeking election to his sixth term in November. Sandra Jean Stipe is his GOP foe. GETTING PERSONAL  Reader Stephanie Dubois writes:Joe, read your blog on the age difference between Denish and Martinez. I wonder if these were two male candidates with a ten year difference would it even be worth mentioning? In fact, I don't think it would have been an issue. And about their personal lives--whether Martinez was married before her present marriage and that Denish had been married before and has three grown children..Those are non-issues and seem to me to be very gender specific. I am supporting Denish, but as a woman and someone who is 64 years old, I do feel that type of reporting is not necessary for the public to make a decision..They should be chosen on their merit and ability to do the job.... Thanks, Stephanie. We see it differently. The voters want to know about he life paths of those who would be governor. It says something about their experience and character. In the case of Martinez, who the Republicans point out would be the nation's first Hispanic female governor, her heritage is of particular relevance. We also don't see the personal paths of the male candidates being ignored. (Just read the coverage of Big Bill's personal life when he ran for president). Maybe raising these questions stands out because for the first time in state history we have two female candidates. We're an equal opportunity blogger and use the same standards for all candidates, and that's how we're proceeding. This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
