Trump in NM

Hispanic support for President Trump is whipsawing. 

His breakthrough in New Mexico last year when he lost the state by six points but performed better than any Republican presidential candidate here since was widely credited to improved support among Hispanic men and his visit to ABQ to rally the troops.

But as with most everything with this President, his Hispanic support is proving to be topsy-turvy. The latest: 

Trump’s approval rating among Hispanic voters dipped to 34 percent in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.The poll shows a 3-point decline from the 37 percent of Hispanic voters who said they approved of the president in January. Trump’s disapproval rating among Hispanic voters, meanwhile, jumped 7 points, from 54 percent in January to 61 percent in April. Overall, the latest poll shows 42 percent of Americans approved of the job the president is doing, compared to 53 percent who disapproved. Hispanic voters represented a key voting bloc for the president in 2024. While the majority of Hispanic voters backed former Vice President Kamala Harris, 46 percent supported Trump’s bid — a 14-point increase from the support he won from Hispanic voters in 2020. Many point to the boost in Hispanic support for Trump as pivotal to his victory in 2024.

It seems Trump's Hispanic support here and elsewhere is largely dependent on the state of the economy going forward. That, in turn, will be crucial to Republican efforts to try to win back the southern congressional seat held by Dem Rep. Gabe Vasquez and be competitive in the '26 Guv race.

BEJING BOUND

Longtime reader Glenn Loveland writes of his experience in New Mexico politics, his time in China and his new book:  

Joe, Back in 1999, I was slinging lattes at the Starbucks near ABQ's Journal Center when I landed an internship in Sen. Pete Domenici’s office. That summer gig led to a position with Rep. Tom Udall’s team, where I eventually became press secretary. After I left Tom's office, I returned to Albuquerque and worked for John Cordova at Cordova Public Relations. 

But here’s where it gets interesting.

In 2007 I moved to Beijing where I spent the next 13 years watching China’s transformation firsthand. I’ve just published a memoir about those years, Bejing Bound. While it’s primarily about life in pre-Olympic Beijing, there’s a healthy dose of D.C. backstory that would resonate with your readers who remember the national politics of that era (George W. Bush administration, etc.). 

As we face Trump 2.0 and renewed tensions with China, I thought you might appreciate hearing from someone who went from writing press releases about New Mexico water rights to navigating the complexities of U.S.-China relations. The view from Beijing of American politics was, let’s say, unique. 

I’ve remained a faithful reader of your blog all these years—there’s nothing quite like New Mexico politics, and nobody captures its peculiarities better than you do. 

Good to hear from you, Glenn. 

Beijing Bound is available at all retailers and at Amazon.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

A major underpinning of New Mexico's modern welfare state is back in the spotlight with the Republican controlled congress eyeing cuts to the Medicaid program that now provides insurance for 830,000 residents in our state or 40 percent of the entire population of 2.1 million. 

That's the highest per capita rate in the USA. State spending on Medicaid is about $2.2 billion with the Feds kicking in another $11 billion.

With an entrenched low wage economy as well as stubborn generational poverty, the number of those eligible for Medicaid has remained very sticky.

And New Mexico takes very seriously its commitment to the program. 

This past legislative session lawmakers approved a blunt instrument to make up for any federal Medicaid cuts that win approval. A Medicaid Trust Fund, financed from revenues from the oil boom, was established and will eventually reach $2 billion with the first $280 million to start flowing in this year.

But what of the bigger picture of reducing the Medicaid rolls by having a better economy with higher paying jobs? Eligibility for Medicaid kicks in when an individual makes less than $20,000 a year and $41,000 for a family of four. That is a somewhat shocking reveal of just how many households here dangle by a thread financially.

One of the proposals in the congressional bill would . . .

.. .Require Medicaid recipients to work, volunteer or attend school for 80 hours a month. The requirement would apply to most able-bodied adults through age 64 without dependents and includes exceptions for pregnant women, people with substance-use disorders and others.

That may sound draconian to some but there may be an opportunity there. Could that volunteer time be coordinated with private sector employers through the Workforce Solutions Department to give the "volunteers" more exposure to the job market?

And that 80 hours a month to attend school. Could that lean into providing more training for skilled trades?

In a weekend appearance on Face the Nation, MLG engaged in some hyperbole regarding the impact of the proposed cuts here. (Video.) She did say, however, that the expensive program could stand for more "efficiencies." Does she have a plan to pursue them? If so, add them to the mix to protect a program vital to the state's health and well-being.  

New Mexico's fortunate financial position gives the state breathing room if Medicaid is trimmed. It also gives the state time to think longer term about creating opportunities and a better economy that would lessen dependence on Medicaid and the whims of DC.  

SPECIAL REPORT 

We asked KOB-TV Assignment Editor Mike Anderson for more info on that special report the station did on the APD DWI bribery scandal. The broadcast broke new ground. The full story is here including an interactive board. There are three nine minute video portions to the report and they are here. 

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Mayor Webber (State of City)

You've got to hand it to Santa Fe Mayor Alan Webber for knowing how to drive his critics crazy. 

At his state of the city speech coming less than six months before the next mayoral election, Webber again shied away from announcing whether he would seek a third four year term. But neither did he sound like a sentimental, soon to retire politico. (Video here.)

Despite what Wikpedia says Webber has not declared that he is seeking re-election in November even as six candidates have filed for the office.  

The progressive mayor conveniently employed Trump as his whipping boy in his speech, saying his administration represents "nothing less than an assault on justice" while Santa Fe is "steadfast in our commitment to justice."

Webber, 76, also staunchly defended the city's status as a sanctuary city, declaring that "Santa Fe's values remain intact."

In uber-progressive Santa Fe that is a rallying cry. With a list of mayoral contenders mostly nameless to the voting public, the speech may have struck fear in the hearts as they wait for Webber to make a decision about running again.

Webber's speech was well-written and well-delivered. That he showed a calm self-assurance was additional cause for concern from his foes.  

The elephant in the city remains the increase in drugs, crime, homelessness and a general sense that Santa Fe is adrift and/or too passive toward these challenges.

By conventional wisdom Webber and ABQ Mayor Tim Keller, who is off and running for a third term, should probably be done because of crime and the resulting decline in the quality of life in their respective cities, but the contests have failed to draw popular personalities or any outstanding leaders from business or government. 

If Webber joins Keller in running for a third term, the campaigns may come down to the old cliche  "you can't beat somebody with nobody." That is unless one of the nobodies fast becomes a somebody.  

GOVERNOR OR PRESIDENT?

On the race for Governor reader Abraham Keyvan-Chavez writes:

Hi Joe: the type of governor New Mexico needs is someone that is not going to try to use the office as a stepping stone to run for President, be a VP pick, or secure a cabinet position when a new president is inaugurated in 2029. All governors in my lifetime (I was born in '93) had ambitions for higher office, only to crash and burn because they used all of their leverage to pursue that and did not use it to address the mounting problems in our state.

On the Democratic side, I feel Deb Haaland is running so she can pursue being a VP pick for the ticket in 2028. Her opponents in the primary can leverage that against her. If Halaand does end up winning the primary, whoever takes the GOP primary can also paint her as yet another gubernatorial candidate that wants to go (in this case go back) to DC. In a year that's looking to be a Democratic wave, this could be an effective tool for the GOP to win the governor's mansion in 2026. 

Thanks, Abraham. Agree that NM Governors turning around and running for higher office as soon as they are sworn in is a bad habit the state needs to shake. As for Haaland pulling that maneuver, your crystal ball is a lot less foggy than ours.

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Now if there were only more of them. 

That was one reaction from Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico as US Attorney General Pam Bondi announced the biggest fentanyl bust in US history in which four million fentanyl pills and other drugs and cash were confiscated across five states, including a huge batch of 2.7 million pills in ABQ and another large haul in Santa Fe.

The bust was a rare victory in what long ago was called the war on drugs but has turned into more of a scuffle as the Sinola Cartel and others have come to dominate the trafficking with little resistance. 

New Mexicans have seen the deadly consequences close up with a large swath of ABQ's SE Heights turned over to drugs and crime. There is now the ubiquitous sight of drug addicts nodding off in the streets in the middle of the day and worse. (Here's a video of that life from producer Pablito Herrera.)

Santa Fe is a relative newcomer to the fentanyl scourge but the big bust caught a drug dealer there with 110,000 fentanyl pills and $80,000 in cash in his Rufina Street house, again sending the message that the capital city has more than a nuisance on their hands.

Many argue the war on the cartels is futile and that drug and behavioral health treatment (and housing) will solve the problem. But that ignores a salient point--the less drugs available the less that can be consumed and that will have an impact on the rate and severity of addiction--and thus crime and homelessness. An all of the above approach--including aggressive law enforcement--is vital. 

And making this a Trump-Biden issue gets us nowhere.

The state has seen a drop in overdose deaths but drug usage remains very high. The drug naloxone has much to do with that lower death rate.

A recent WalletHub report pointed to New Mexico as having the highest rate of drug use among teenagers, a report questioned by some experts but there is no doubt that it is high and fertile ground for the next generation to be captured by the cartels.

Consistent interdiction by law enforcement is essential if ABQ and now Santa Fe are going to be cleaned up. The key word being consistent and not just one headline grabbing bust every few years.

The five state bust announced this week revived memories of one in ABQ in September 2022 by the FBI and that netted one million fentanyl pills. But there was little follow-up.

If New Mexico wants to dig out of the drug mess it must lose the prevailing cynicism that the "war on drugs" is an antiquated notion and that a soft touch alone will stop the death and dysfunction. It won't.

CAMPAIGN CHATTER

Drugs and crime will be an agenda leader in the race for ABQ mayor this year but first the 11 candidates who have filed for the post must gather enough signatures to make the ballot and qualify for public financing or raise private money. To do that they have hired the hired guns.

Former US Attorney Alex Uballez signed Roadrunner Strategies consultants Dylan McArthur and Brandon Padilla to run his campaign, but in a sudden switch they are already gone. 

Roadrunner says the firm was not fired but left because there was an unspecified "potential conflict of interest" and that they wish Uballez "all the best." Of course, that didn't stop the competing campaigns from some negative whispering about the early personnel turnover. 

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Diamondback Energy, the largest independent oil producer in the Permian, has called the peak of oil production there. 

The Permian has propelled America to become the world's leading oil producer while filling New Mexico's coffers with previously unimaginable sums of money, making possible a massive increase in the state budget and sustaining the economies of SE NM.

Because of the long oil shale boom, the state's various Permanent Funds have exploded to $60 billion in a state with a population that for years has hovered around 2 million.

More on the Diamondback prediction amid falling oil prices:

The largest independent oil producer in the Permian Basin says production has likely peaked in America’s prolific shale fields and will decline in the months ahead after crude prices plummeted. The Texas company trimmed its own full-year production forecast and said to investors that it expects onshore oil rigs across the entire US industry to drop by almost 10% by the end of the second quarter and fall further in the months after. 

“This will have a meaningful impact on our industry and our country,” Diamondback Chief Executive Officer Travis Stice wrote. “We believe we are at a tipping point for U.S. oil production.” The outlook
from Diamondback, one of the industry’s most prominent producers, marks a key shift for expectations within the sector. Before oil prices started plunging last month, most banks and research firms had forecast US shale production would grow this year and next before plateauing later in the decade. The Permian, they said, was apt to peak in the late 2020s or early 2030s depending on prices. 

This doesn't mean that New Mexico is about to experience a financial crash as it has previously when oil prices and production have cratered. But it does signal that the go-go budget years are history and that the amount of money coming from the Permian is beginning what will be a long but slow decline.

Enormous surpluses already set aside give the state plenty of breathing room to deal with this new energy paradigm. Also, the state recently raised certain royalty rates for oil and gas production from 20 percent to 25 percent.

Unlike previous booms fracking has been employed to get more oil out of the ground. It has been less expensive than other methods. New oil wells, however, will be more expensive to develop because of higher costs and will be less profitable at lower oil prices.

Energy royalties and taxes have come to finance 40 percent of the state budget which for the next fiscal is $10.8 billion. That's about 75 percent higher than the $6.2 billion budget approved in 2018, seven years ago.

One noticeable impact of that plenty has been the expansive funding for early childhood education and subsequent improvement in the state's rankings. Critics however, continue to point to the state's overall low ratings in key areas despite the massive cash influx.

ALSO WATCHING. . .

Other developments the econ watches are keeping an eye on are tourism and federal spending, 

Tourism, a cornerstone of the state economy, especially Santa Fe and the north, is about to take a hit from the decline in international travel. Canada backing away from the USA over policy and nervousness from overseas tourists about coming here will be felt this summer on the Plazas of Santa Fe and Taos. 

Then there's the state's crucial federal funding as the Trump administration looks everywhere for budget cuts. Uncertainty is the order of the day. While the national labs--Sandia and Los Alamos--appear to be a safe harbor (if there is such a thing) other federal agencies and programs have more exposure to possible cuts. If permanent NM cuts will come and when is up in the air as the DC chaos continues.

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KRQE-TV attempted to get an explanation from the Federal Court and the US Attorney's office on why the numerous plea bargain hearings for APD officers snared in the DWI bribery investigation are not being publicized. That's so the station and other media can show (and question) the disgraced cops and their attorneys entering the Federal building and also listen in on the plea hearings where the public is allowed but cameras are not. 

The explanation offered may be disconcerting to open government advocates:

Chief Deputy of the U.S. District Court, Heather Small, explained that because prosecutors are filing the charging document in conjunction with the officers’ plea, the court can’t assign a case number to establish the officers’ case until the plea hearing actually occurs. . .According to the U.S. Attorney’s Office. . .the people admitting to their roles in the scheme have skipped the judge and jury, waiving their right to a grand jury as part of the plea agreement. That means the charges aren’t filed until the plea happens, so there is nothing for the public to view in court databases before the officers appear in court.

"Nothing for the public to view in court databases?"

Perhaps the Chief Deputy and the public information officer at the USA's office can make hearings that are scheduled on short notice known to the media and other interested parties by simple phone calls or messages? That's an old school "database" that works quite well. 

The lack of coverage of the hearings has raised suspicions that unlike other federal defendants, the APD bribery cops are being given special treatment.

Soon the sentencing hearings will begin for the guilty officers. Those should be in the database beforehand and the public's right to know (and see) not blocked.

BACKING THE CHIEF

Councilor Peña

After that roasting given to APD Chief Harold Medina by City Councilor and mayoral candidate Louis Sanchez at last Thursday's meeting and which we blogged of yesterday, here is a rebuttal made at that same meeting by Klarissa Peña, the senior member of the nine member council who represents southwest District 3:

I want to commend you for all the work that you’ve done. You’ve been asked to reduce crime, you reduced crime. You’ve asked to get DOJ out of the city Albuquerque. You’re in the process of getting them out. You implemented speeding cameras which has helped to reduce speeding, although it’s still a persistent problem. We put ShotSpotter throughout the city. That’s another tool that we’ve been able to utilize to identify guns and there’s people that have been caught as a result. We did just had a community conversation that you were at. You were at some community events that I was at recently. It was just a small survey but it was done for District 3. The people who responded to that survey said that they feel safe in their community and that they feel that law enforcement is responding to their concerns.  

Councilor Peña, elected in 2013, is seeking a fourth term this year. She is being challenged by retired Navy officer Chris Sedillo. 

Peña has endorsed Mayor Keller who is seeking a third term at the November election. Her full remarks on Medina can be seen here at the 4 hour 57 mark. 

As the mayoral race heats up, we remain intent on providing our traditional fair and balanced coverage.

RICH KID?

Reader Diane Ochoa comes with some spicy remarks on the expected GOP gubernatorial candidacy of former Lt, Governor John Sanchez:

A Trump supported candidate for governor of New Mexico? That's laughable especially one with a reputation as a vendido rich kid. All I can respond with is please AG Raul Torrez run for the Democratic nomination for Governor ! You will win in a landslide. Put a little pizazz into the election with all these boring candidates--both Dems and Reps--that are putting me to sleep with their silly antics in their campaigns. 

But what do you really think, Diane?

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Medina and Sanchez

The caustic attack from ABQ City Councilor Louis Sanchez on APD Chief Harold Medina at last Thursday's Council meeting may have been overly personal by accusing the chief of "disrespecting" the councilors but if this marks the beginning of a passionate debate over the future of policing in crime-struggling ABQ, it will be seen as a nasty but necessary confrontation. (Video here.)

Sanchez, a former cop and one of 11 candidates for mayor in the November mayoral election, understands law enforcement more than most. But his harsh attacks on Medina for wearing casual clothes while addressing the Council and berating him for not "consulting" the panel on the Governor's deployment of the National Guard here were a bit over the top. 

Still. it could be a starting point for something meaningful for the campaign ahead. We asked APD watchers where the candidates should head. 

--It's a given that Medina's usefulness as chief is on its last legs. The city needs to look beyond him by extracting a firm commitment from Mayor Keller that--if reelected--Medina will retire or be replaced --and end the chief's game-playing about his future. In other words, a drop dead date for Medina to leave is essential. 

--The 30 year old APD DWI scandal needs to be woven into the campaign debate and examined for what it reveals about the cultural problems that have made APD into a sometimes unmanageable morass. 

--Ditto for the over decade-long oversight role of APD by the US Department of Justice that has had little discernible impact on APD. 

--The candidates need to declare whether they will seek to change APD culture by going outside the department (and outside the state) for a new chief. Upon his first election Mayor Keller launched a national search for a chief only to fall back on the APD culture and insider leadership which then saw the Mayor's power over the rogue agency sucked away.

A thorough house cleaning of APD is obviously overdue. But many of the candidates say they support adding more police to the culturally-rotted agency as the primary solution. They are also taking the campaign into a simplistic "back the badge" mentality when the need for a deep cleaning has never been more apparent.

Sanchez may have missed the mark some in his heated argument with Medina but if his diatribe fuels a no-holds-barred campaign debate over the future of crime-fighting--thus the future of the city--the Councilor gets a pass. 

 ET TU, SANTA FE?

Mayor Webber

If we were first to ring the bell and signal to Santa Fe that they are starting down the path of no return when it comes to preventing their city from becoming a gun and drug infested burg similar to ABQ, so be it. The latest: 

New Mexico's generations-long struggle with drug addiction sadly continues into the current one, with a new study reporting that not only does the state have the highest rate of drug abuse in the nation but that the state's teenagers rank first in the nation for the percentage of drug users.

The WalletHub report is devastating for the human tragedy it represents and also because it comes against a backdrop of unimaginable wealth for state government created by the ongoing oil boom. 

It gets worse.

The study confirms what the state knows too well. Drug treatment has failed to keep up with the rampant addiction and ranks New Mexico second in the nation for the number of "adults with unmet drug treatment needs." 

From the study:

New Mexico has the biggest drug problem in the U.S., especially when it comes to teenagers. The state has the highest percentage of teens using illicit drugs and the highest share of teenagers who report having tried marijuana before age 13. New Mexico has the third-highest share of adults who use illicit drugs, as well. New Mexico also lags behind other states when it comes to putting policies in place to discourage drug use or help people overcome it. For example, the state does not have employee drug testing laws, and it has the second-highest share of adults with drug problems who didn’t get treatment. It also has the fifth-highest share of children who lived with anyone who had a problem with alcohol or drugs.

The legalization of marijuana here, as we and others futilely warned, has been an epic failure in a state with a fragile population so prone to drug abuse.

The Governor and Legislature finally responded more robustly to the behavioral health crisis this past session, passing a system reboot in hopes of stemming the wave of addiction trapping so many in desperation.

The WalletHub study is a stark reminder to policymakers that treatment for teens demands special attention. 

As for those seeking reasons for the surge in juvenile crime here, the study obviously offers some. 

New Mexico needs to get addicted to drug treatment, education and prevention and stop idly watching so many of its youth sink out of sight. But you already know that.

 FRED'S BANCO

Allen Sanchez, Monahan & Sen. Campos

Former US Senator and revered New Mexican Fred Harris who died last November at 94 is being honored by his friends in a special way.

A memorial--The Fred Harris Memorial Banco--in honor of the '76 presidential candidate, productive Oklahoma lawmaker and UNM poly sci professor--is now situated at his beloved Barelas Coffee House in ABQ's South Valley. He regularly met there with his buddies to dissect the news of the day as have so many other notable personalities of La Politica. 

Those friends are responsible for the charming Spanish Colonial style bench crafted in northern New Mexico in Fred's honor and now in the restaurant's lobby. 

The name plate reads: "Senador, Profesor, y Amigo del pueblo" (Friend of the People) with a commemorative plaque of Harris above.

With your blogger at the banco and on the left is CHI St. Joseph's President Allen Sanchez. On the right is longtime state Senator Pete Campos. 

The photo followed a tasty lunch where we dished up lots of red and the latest mitote including the enduring legacy of Fred Harris. 

"It's a fine tribute indeed." Remarked Sen. Campos. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics." How often have we heard that old saw in relation to crime here and elsewhere? 

The disconnect between what is reality according to law enforcement and what people feel is a very real phenomenon and will be central to the race for ABQ mayor. 

Sen. Lujan (Journal)

It's not direct from the horse's mouth but a "spokesperson" for Senator Ben Ray Lujan says he will, as expected, seek a second term in 2026.

That ABQ Dem Rep. Melanie Stansbury was mentioned here a a possible replacement if Lujan chose to step away might have his office stepping on the gas. There are also plenty of others on the Democratic bench who would jump in if Lujan were to beg off.

We have watched senate re-election decisions closely over the years and with caution. Before they went public with their decisions not to seek re-election, Senators Pete Domenici, Tom Udall and Jeff Bingaman were all very coy, probably to avoid looking as weak lame ducks. That's why an unequivocal statement direct from the candidate is preferred.

But we'll take the Lujan spokesman's comment at face value while also mentioning that Ben Ray has a robust $2.075 million in campaign cash on hand, signaling his run for a second six year term. 

The senator recently held a town hall where he looked and acted every bit the candidate as he fielded questions from a crowd of Santa Fe liberals concerned about the Trump administration. 

He also conducted a business roundtable in ABQ on Trumps tariffs as he steps up his activity for this election cycle.

Lujan is not a firebrand and favors a centrist approach while voting his party's line. That positions him to take advantage of Trump's unpopularity within his party while still appealing to those outside that circle.

Republicans have not indicated they will mount a serous challenge and he starts as a heavy favorite for re-election. 

HEADY DAYS

Lujan and Pelosi

Lujan's march to the center of power was a straight line when he served in the US House for eight years (2009-2021). 

He was picked in 2014 as the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). He soon was a regular national media presence, guiding the Dems in 2016 to to a six seat pick up in the House. In 2018 the big payoff came when Lujan presided over the campaign that took back the House from the Republicans.

Lujan's chief talent is not legislating but political strategy and party leadership. In 2018 he rose to the rank of Assistant House Speaker (formerly known as Assistant Majority Leader) under his mentor Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Those were heady days for the native New Mexican and some observers thought he might stay put in the House with an eye toward an even higher leadership slot and more power. But the lure of an open senate seat could not be resisted. 

Lujan's rise slowed in the Senate. He said the stroke he suffered in early 2022 "changed his perspective." 

He was recently named to the powerful Senate Finance Committee as he regroups. The question is whether Lujan's ultimate promise will manifest itself in the Senate. 

Is he again on track to accumulate more power for the state or will his career be more low key? An answer will come in due time, one supposes. At 52, Lujan is a veritable teenybopper in the aged Senate, a place where the long game is your ace in the hole.

Lujan's '26 campaign will not only feature a jousting over ideas but also reveal just how deep his ambition still burns. 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

Sanchez

It is a long way off but the smart money now says the most likely match-up for the 2026 gubernatorial race will be Democrat Deb Haaland versus former GOP Lt. Governor John Sanchez.

Former Sec. of Interior Haaland launched her campaign for the Democratic nomination in February. 

Her main challenger is Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, a colorful personality who overplayed his hand when he announced his candidacy on horseback and in full cowboy regalia. His urban background made that a bridge too far and he now has ground to make up.

The expected entry into the contest by conservative Democrat and former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima will be another burden for Bregman as he battles his party's large progressive wing and as Miyagishima brings some intriguing ideas to the table.

This competition for the nonprogressive vote will give Haaland, 64, breathing room to polish her campaign which has been criticized for its low energy optics and ambiguous reasoning over why she wants to be Governor.

Sanchez, according to long-term reliable sources, is now expected to announce a candidacy (in June?) and would immediately become the front-runner for the GOP nomination. This would be his second time carrying the party banner. He snared the nomination way back in 2002 and then suffered a general election defeat at the hands of Bill Richardson.

A GOP consultant tracking it all tells us:

Sanchez sees an opening against Haaland who has not been tested in a statewide race and whose appeal could be blunted by her performance. His hope is that he can break through in his hometown of ABQ where Democrats have been landsliding the Republicans for so long and also chip away at Hispanic voters who revealed dissatisfaction with the Democrats in the November election. 

Republican insiders believe that Sanchez should have little trouble dispatching Republican hopeful and Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull in next year's primary. Former Supreme Court Justice Judith Nakamura  is giving conflicting signals about making a run.

THE SANCHEZ ANGLE

Haaland

Sanchez, 62, ran successfully for Lt. Governor under Susana Martinez in 2010 and 2014. He has contacts in all of the state's counties, the ability to raise oil money plus his own personal fortune from his roofing business. 

The Martinez wing of the party has nothing but contempt for Sanchez but stopping him would be a formidable task especially since the possibility of a Trump endorsement of Sanchez looms large. During the 2020 campaign Trump named him as his Hispanic Prosperity Initiative chairman and praised him at a White House ceremony

Martinez, Nakamura et al. are on the outside looking in on Trump whose endorsement either publicly or quietly would go a long way toward Sanchez securing a big win at the GOP preprimary convention next March. That, in turn, would boost his momentum heading into the June primary.

We first covered Sanchez's possible entry into the '26 race in January including reporting on his past political travails. Since then signals and chatter that he is getting in have grown stronger with the crescendo building.

While Sanchez is hopeful he can turn around the stranded Republican ship, it remains a gargantuan task because of the party's historic decline here in the past decade. 

Sanchez is an affable personality with broad appeal in the GOP, probably making the nomination not much more than a lay up. Actually taking the state's seat of power away from the Democrats will be a longshot. But as Dylan sang: 

"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose." 

This is the Home of New Mexico Politics.        

MLG and Torres

The state attorney general's office has historically been a platform for puffery and do nothingness so it was a stark contrast indeed when AG Raul Torrez lowered the hammer on the Lujan Grisham administration and its long-troubled Children, Youth and Families Department (CYFD) by starting an investigation into the agency's handling of a recent death by suicide of a 16 year old foster teen at a CYFD facility and more. 

I will not tolerate the excuses, the assurances. I think we have all grown tired of waking up and hearing about another child who’s been injured, another child who’s been hurt, another child in state custody who’s been killed.

The Governor was not happy about it but she brought this upon herself by continually ignoring the crisis of maltreatment of children by resisting reform and by appointing agency leaders not up to the job. Still, her denial remains as thick as a brick:

Gov. Lujan Grisham signed into law a new Office of Child Advocate in the attorney general’s office that confers him with authority to investigate CYFD’s operations. . .However. . .the governor is concerned that this new office could be weaponized to intimidate CYFD and its staff rather than to prioritize the safety and well-being of children in the state’s care. She reiterates this concern following the AG’s unfounded, blanket criticisms of CYFD at a news conference.

Progressives in the legislature also share blame for looking the other way for years as the Democratic Governor tried to sweep CYFD's systemic failure under the rug. They woke up this year.

But the political system, as maddeningly slow as it can be, is now responding as the AG calls out CYFD's dreadful performance and its penchant for nondisclosure. 

The investigation offers an opportunity for the public to get a holistic look at CYFD instead of a hodge podge of reports on horrific abuse cases and agency incompetence. It could also put an end to splintered legislative efforts to do something--do anything--about the breakdown and could present the opportunity for a comprehensive reform package.

The Governor's legacy has been blackened by her stubbornness to confront the crisis but it isn't too late to lighten that stain if she stops her solo resistance movement and joins with Torrez to clean up and clean out one of the worst and longest running examples of government incompetence. 

TICKET BALANCING

Las Cruces attorney Israel Chavez reacts to chatter that an all woman Governor and Lt. Governor Democratic ticket in 2026 might not be balanced:

Joe, it’s sad to think that in New Mexico, where we are raised and governed by our mothers, tias, and abuelitas, that someone could think that we wouldn’t elect an all female ticket. 

Stephanie Garcia Richard is a formidable candidate, has transformed the land commissioner's office and fought successfully to pass an oil and gas royalty increase for the first time in decades. 

If folks recall, she was the underdog in the land commissioner's race nearly eight years ago. She’s the first woman and Latina to hold that office in state history. And people said a teacher couldn’t do it. As a son of a teacher, I can tell you that a teacher can do anything they set their mind to, including run and win the race for Lieutenant governor.  

Deb Haaland is the front-runner for the '26 Democratic gubernatorial nomination. She faces a primary challenge from BernCo District Attorney Sam Bregman. Garcia Richard is the first announced candidate for the Dem nomination for lieutenant governor. There has never been an all female ticket for the state's top two offices. 

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You may not have heard this news because media here does not cover other media--even when a tectonic shift takes place--like the sale of the entire 28 acre campus owned by the ABQ Journal in order to generate cash to keep the long struggling newspaper in business. The publisher says:

Repurposing is. . . what we’re doing with it because we’re taking our asset and making it liquid and then using that so that so we can continue on strongly.

But the sale is expected to generate millions (the asking price is private), more cash than probably needed for the paper's short-term future. Because the Journal is not a public company we don't know if they have large debt to service or whether this is a prelude to a sale of the state's largest newspaper.

The paper says it occupies about 20 percent of the space in NE ABQ. The remainder is leased out but how much of that is vacant was not disclosed.

The Journal next year marks 100 years under the tutelage of the Lang family but the sale of their treasured campus, one of the state's premier developments from the 80's, raises questions about that long run continuing.

The Journal has been slashing expenses and staff for years but with little to show for it. Subscriptions continue to tank as they do for most printed media. (That's an educated assumption since readership figures are no longer publicly available and have not been for years,)

Moving the paper to a smaller and more digitally focused headquarters, as now planned, will keep the concern going but to what purpose? Why not sell the brand to a major chain that has the financial capability to absorb some losses and conduct a turnaround?

Maybe that window has closed and there is no buyer out there? Or perhaps the controlling family is cashing out and trying to lure a buyer for a newspaper with a smaller financial footprint.

The Journal may be a shadow of its former self but is still vital to the community. Despite financial challenges the journalism remains solid even as it is displayed in a sometimes unfocused format. (The Sunday opinion pages are like a crowded wreck on I-40)

The paper has tried everything to battle the relentless forces that that have now claimed their crown jewels. Like so much about New Mexico these days, the future of locally owned daily journalism is confounding not to mention worrisome. 

IRONIC VETO

Las Cruces state Rep. Sarah Silva comes with a bemusing example of lawmaking from the recent legislative session:

It’s ironic that HB143 (which Silva sponsored) would have given us information about who lobbied the governor to veto this bill – and without it, we have no way to know. In other words, (the Governor's) veto demonstrates the need for the very legislation she killed.

The bill would have required lobbyists to file an activity report with the SOS on legislation they support or oppose before the end of a legislative session. Silva says she will try again. 

SAVE ACT 

New reader Leslie McMurtry writes:

Dear sir, I read with interest your blog post about 330,000 unaffiliated voters in New Mexico having the opportunity in 2026 to vote in primaries without having to first change their voter registration to a major party. I wonder if you have considered how the SAVE Act, just passed in the US House, would affect these 330,000 new voters (and New Mexicans generally) should it be passed in the Senate. Here is more information.

The House passed the SAVE Act that would require Americans to show proof of citizenship in person to register to vote in federal elections, which critics say could disenfranchise millions of eligible voters. Four Democrats joined all Republicans to pass the measure in a 220-208 vote. The bill would require applicants to present documentary proof of U.S. citizenship such as a valid passport, a birth certificate or other forms of identification that show a person is a U.S. citizen. It's aimed at preventing noncitizens from voting — something which is already illegal and rare. 

Whether new here or around for years, we welcome your comments, opinions and existential angst.

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