Dem Reps. Thomas, Rodefer & Giannini
State GOP operatives have their chalkboards out and are toting up which Democratic House seats are most vulnerable this election cycle. The Dems are in total control of the state House--45 D's to 25 R's--after picking up some seats in the 2008 Obama landslide. The R's think there will be a rubber band effect, with some districts that should never have gone D coming back to them in November.

The Dem seats insider R's think are most likely to flip are Karen Giannini's ABQ NE Heights seat and that of Rep. Ben Rodefer on the West side. But it gets dicier after that.

For example, Rep. Jack Thomas is in a swing Rio Rancho area seat, but he is a former Sandoval County Commissioner with good name ID. R's point out he only won by 278 votes in '08 and that his opponent is likely to be a the widow of a law enforcement officer who was shot and killed in the line of duty.

The Bill O'Neill ABQ NE Heights House seat is another on the R target list, but it won't be easy. Same for the Las Cruces area seats of Reps Jeff Steinborn and Nate Cote. There will need to be a big R trend to pick all of them off.

South of ABQ the R's will target Rep. Andrew Barreras. Here's the news on that:

Republican and small business owner, Tim Lardner declared his candidacy for New Mexico House of Representatives, District 7. Lardner is President of Belen based New Mexico Travertine Inc, and CEO of Santa Fe Marble, specializing in the mining and fabrication of stone and marble. Once elected, Lardner is committed to reigning in irresponsible government spending while working to cut taxes on our small businesses and families.

The conservative estimate is that the R's pick up at least two or three House seats this November. The 42 state Senate seats aren't up for election until 2012.

NOT A GOOD THING
Mayor Berry
The 8.9 percent ABQ metro January unemployment rate reported by the state Thursday may be the highest in the city's post WWII history in this government oriented economy.

The rate jumped from 8.5 percent in December and while there are seasonal factors involved, ABQ Mayor RJ Berry has to be increasingly concerned. He only took office December 1 and his honeymoon is still in progress, but soon these depressing stats will be owned by him as well as the political heartburn they represent.

We're now only a tenth of a percentage point away from the psychologically important 9 percent mark. What may keep us from getting there is that many folks simply stop looking for work or move away. It's not as if there's enough job creation to make up for the positions being lost.

And that's what is most worrisome. Where will the new jobs come from to replace the thousands being lost in the state's largest city? Many of them were in construction and
manufacturing. Then there's the hiring freeze at city hall and state government.

Berry's administration is already facing the prospect of the largest budget shortfall in the city's modern history--$54 million for the budget year that starts July 1. This jobless report tells us that economic activity is unlikely to pick up and generate the gross receipts taxes needed to put the city on a more even keel.

So while the new mayor mourns the continued losses in the job market, he faces the most unpleasant task of possibly adding to the hurt by being forced to layoff city workers, or at least cut their pay by making them stay home from work under a stern furlough plan.

There's nothing more that Berry would rather do than cut taxes for business and call it a jobs creation program. But he can't cut taxes because the city is broke. He and his economic planners need to think outside the box. Republican tax cutting orthodoxy is not going to do the trick. And while mayoral cheerleading for the economy is permitted, it will not substitute for real job creation.

We've suggested recently that ABQ might invest in being aggressive in attracting more federal interest in the city. Not that city fathers should throw the towel in on wooing major private employers, but it makes sense to recognize that the city's modern strength is owed to the large federal presence. As Martha Stewart would say--that's a good thing.

Berry is a Republican and the White House and the state's congressional delegation is all Democratic. That might make for some awkwardness, but when we saved Kirtland Air Force Base from being shuttered, we did it with Democrats and Republicans working together. Maybe it's time for that spirit again. This time to save our economic future.

OUR PREPRIMARY COVERAGE

It's not over yet, not by a long shot. We’re still waiting for the New Mexican economy to hit bottom. The most politically sensitive indicator of the state's economic health has climbed yet again, with the US Labor Department now pegging the January jobless rate at 8.5 percent of the work force, a new Great Recession high and creating an even more turbulent backdrop for the embryonic 2010 campaigns now forming for statewide and congressional contests.

The feds say New Mexico had the misfortune of being the state that posted the largest jobless percentage rate increase in the USA in January, a 0.3 percent rise. While the economic boosters have been repeatedly saying that "it's not as bad here as elsewhere," the state is staying true to its long standing tradition of being among the last to catch a trend. In this case it is the recession trend that has ravaged the American nation for going on two years now and sent unemployment and under employment soaring.

The state will report its version of the jobless stats today, but it's clear by just reading the headlines (100 laid off from the Gardunos restaurant chain; mortgage delinquencies setting new highs and real estate values continuing to decline) that we are still in the teeth of this downturn.

All of this makes matters more urgent for the state's Democrats. They are now all holding their breath and awaiting Governor Richardson's forthcoming decision on the hyper-controversial partial reinstatement of the food tax.

THE IMPACT

That tax passed the recent special session of the Legislature as a budget solving measure, but now threatens to become the poster child for an out of step political class, unleashing a wrath of populist anger reminiscent of 1994 and turning over the Governor's office and perhaps a congressional seat or two to the long-suffering Republicans.

Richardson has until the 24th of this month to make up his mind. He says he is having trouble because he doesn't know if he can veto the food tax without vetoing the entire $230 million plus tax increase package approved by the session. It could mean having to call another special session, with all the political risk that entails.

But vox populi isn't interested in what Bill's lawyers are saying. He blames the Senate for passing it, but Richardson and conservative Senate Dems could have supported an income tax surcharge, an increase in the capital gains rate or even a slight boost in the top income tax rate. He didn't and a food tax ended up on his desk.

Is it hyperbole to declare that the situation for the Dems is now bordering on the dire? That the GOP Guv field is unknown and inexperienced seems to be providing the only succor to the party in the power.

Richardson has raised expectations for a veto by saying he "hates" the food tax. If he doesn't come through with a veto and show that his sympathies and those of his majority party are with the thousands of New Mexicans out of work and the thousands more struggling to make ends meet, the Republicans may have an historic opportunity to take power in Santa Fe.

THE COVERAGE

Again it is TV news with the human angle on this generation's big economic story, showing the faces and telling the stories behind the numbers. They're interviewing the construction workers and butchers who are trying to raise families but are caught in this downturn. Where are the stories of these people in the dead-tree press?

ORTIZ Y PINO SURPRISE?

Lots of feedback to the Alligator handicapping here Wednesday of Saturday's Dem preprimary convention. Several operatives say they now see movement toward ABQ State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino in that five way race for Lt. Governor. They say his strength may be underestimated and that they wouldn't be surprised if he gets over the 20 percent of the delegates needed to win an official spot on the June 1st primary ballot.

Ortiz y Pino had good showings at several county conventions that send delegates to the preprimary, including Bernalillo and Rio Arriba counties. He is the most liberal of the light Guv hopefuls and liberals traditionally participate at a high level in grassroots activities like the preprimary. But Ortiz y Pino is taking hits from his own fan club for his down the line support of the reinstatement of the dreaded food tax.

If Ortiz y Pino can pull off a surprise Saturday, the next question will be whether he can raise the money to compete in the race. So far, his fundraising has lagged far behind that of Brian Colon and Lawrence Rael.

SALAZAR LETTER GOES PUBLIC

That resignation letter from former Bureau of Elections director AJ Salazar accusing Secretary of State Mary Herrera of running a "crooked" operation is posted in all its gory detail, courtesy of the Rio Grande Sun. Salazar resigned. Herrera denies his charges and the matter has landed in the lap of the attorney general. Sounds like New Mexico politicos is chugging along as usual. Mary doesn't have a Dem primary foe.

SANTA FE POST-MORTEM
Asenath Kepler
Defeated Santa Fe mayoral candidate Asenath Kepler, a former city attorney and city manager there, writes to us in the aftermath of her 58% to 34% loss to Mayor David Coss (Miguel Chavez received 8 percent). She doesn't seem ready to retire from the political scene:

Now that the dust has settled from the mayoral election, I have a couple of thoughts to share with you.

We ran an honorable, issue-oriented, grassroots campaign. Our committee was a broad political and socio-economic cross-section of Santa Fe, and we tried to get everyone in “the Big Tent.” Despite being outspent by over $100,000, we took about 34% of the vote...We also changed the dialogue up here, and inspired many to demand that local government be more transparent...

As David Gergen said, “A leader’s role is to raise people’s aspirations for what they can become and to release their energies so they will try to get there.” That was what our campaign was all about, and hopefully will be again some day.

Take care, and have fun as we head into “high” political season!

Kepler focused her campaign on the economy and Santa Fe's severe challenges in that regard. She could not pin the blame on Mayor Coss who was given a big vote of confidence and gets congratulations.

The mayoral campaign did seem to accelerate acceptance of the theory that the old paradigm of ever increasing tourism and housing prices is antiquated. In that sense Kepler's losing campaign helped Santa Fe. It may even help Mayor Coss as he again turns his attention to the city's pressing economic concerns.

BLOGGING RATON

Sharon Neiderman writes us from Raton that she is now blogging under the title "Embracing the North" and is tracking the comings and goings of the politicos in Colfax County.

Sharon is a writer and journalist of long standing here, and in the past has specialized in cuisine, travel, history, women’s issues and spirituality. Her latest book project is: "Shrines and Signs: Spiritual Journeys Across New Mexico."

She moved to Raton, her husband's hometown, from ABQ about a year and a half ago. We've asked her to keep her eye on that planned racino for Raton that is having so much trouble getting up and running.

WAS THAT THE REASON?

The Horse Race
Alligator handicapping is in full swing as Saturday's preprimary conventions draw ever closer. Everyone wonders who will snare the minimum 20 percent of the delegates to win an official spot on the June 1st primary ballot. Not reaching that mark has always meant the death knell is sounded for a candidacy. A contender can still get on the ballot without the 20 percent by filing additional petition signatures, but support and money dries up when you fail to cross the 20 percent benchmark.

So who will survive and who will crumble?

The hottest show in town (or at least in Pojoaque) where some 2,160 Dems will gather Saturday at the Buffalo Thunder Resort is the five way race for lieutenant governor. Here's the first round of handicapping from a veteran Dem operative turned Alligator. He thinks three of the five will make the cut:

Here's my two cents after talking to some county chairs and other party folks: Brian Colon--30.5%; Lawrence Rael--22%; Joe Campos--21.5%; Jerry Ortiz y Pino--18%; Linda Lopez--8%

The big surprise to me will be if Rael or Campos don't get to 20%, but I also assume they'll both collect enough signatures to get on the ballot either way. Anything north of 30 percent in a five way field is good for Colon.

Again, it's true that Rael and Campos can get on the ballot without the 20 percent, but if they don't reach that mark their candidacies may be done. No one has ever gone on to win the primary election without getting 20 percent at the preprimary.

CRYSTAL BALLING THE R'S

And how about that other five way race that has the politicos enthralled? It's the match for the GOP Guv nomination featuring Pete Domenici Jr., Allen Weh, Doug Turner, Susana Martinez and Janice Arnold-Jones. Here's how another of our Alligators is making book on that preprimary face-off:

Weh, Domenici Jr. and Martinez all get over 20 percent--hard to imagine any don’t. The question is: If Weh wins the most delegates and has the most money (he won’t release it so who knows), does he have a case to make that he’s the front runner or at least co-front runner?

If that NMSU poll is right, Pete Jr. is at 29%, which means the name alone won’t be enough. Without serious money and an organization, he’ll sit idly at 29%. Meanwhile, the candidate with the money and organization (Weh?) should expect to grow. Agree?

And if Martinez can’t shock everyone with a convention win, does she remain viable? She hasn’t raised much money, doesn’t have a real organization to speak of and 90% of New Mexicans don’t know who she is...

Weh sharing front runner status with Domenici if he scores first place at the preprimary as expected? You won't get much of an argument out of us.

Allen's hard-right positions combined with his personal wealth and the fact that the state GOP is dominated by Anglo men all stand to make him a formidable challenger.

Domenici Jr. has the marquee name, but he has been unable to make his nomination anything close to a foregone conclusion. He also really needs to get that 20 percent when the some 450 R delegates meet at the ABQ Hilton. If not, Weh will have an even better shot at the prize.

As for Martinez, she doesn't need to win the preprimary. That onus is on former party chairman Weh. But she needs a solid showing if she is going to raise any money to compete against Weh and Domenici in April and May. She has time, but she is up against longer odds since Pete Jr. tossed his hat into the ring.

Turner and Arnold-Jones are underdogs, but in a five way shoot-out they still have a shot at the 20 percent.

A CERTAIN WIN

There's not much certainty in this volatile election year, but we don't need to shine our crystal ball to know that Lt. Governor Diane Denish will have reason to celebrate Saturday night. And she will.

Di will host a party following the Democratic preprimary convention at Buffalo Thunder where she will be awarded the only Dem spot on the June 1 primary ballot for the office of Governor as she is unopposed for the nomination. From the email:

Lt. Gov. Diane Denish wants to invite delegates, alternates and other Democrats to a Victory Rally, Saturday night at the Buffalo Thunder Resort, March 13th at 7:00 pm. Entertainment will be free and provided by Mariachi Tenampa and the king of northern New Mexico Music, Tobias Rene!

Hey, wonder if Big Bill will be there with Di after their recent spat over the state losing out on a big federal education grant. Maybe, but they probably won't be doing any slow dancing when Tobias plays a ranchera waltz.

Denish also came with this news of a preprimary rally Thursday, March 11 at 6 PM at the Wesst Enterprise Center, 609 Broadway Blvd. NE Albuquerque. She said:

There's a reason we're gathering at the Wesst Enterprise Center--it's a small business incubator, where New Mexico entrepreneurs are launching their own small businesses and growing them. I felt there was no better place to celebrate the new way forward for New Mexico.

Sounds good, Di. Throw in some tax-free food and we'll make it a date.

THE ECON BEAT

The rate of home foreclosures in the ABQ metro is startling, at least when seen through the lens of history. This has been a very stable market--until now.

Have you flipped through the back pages of the newspaper lately and seen the dozens of foreclosure listings and the times of the various auctions? It is staggering. And then there are the thousands of homeowners who are delinquent on their mortgages and risk going into foreclosure. From the NM Biz Weekly:

The rate of foreclosures in Albuquerque increased substantially in January, rising to 2.40 percent, compared with 1.36 percent in January 2009, according to First American CoreLogic.

...Foreclosure activity in Albuquerque is 0.79 percentage points lower than the national foreclosure rate, which was 3.19 percent for January 2010. Albuquerque’s mortgage delinquency rate has increased, as 6.33 percent of mortgage loans were 90 days or more delinquent, compared with 3.44 percent for the same period last year, an increase of 2.90 percentage points.

The November election is about eight months away, but with stats like these it's hard to see how the state of the economy won't remain the supreme issue on the campaign trail.

ALAN WHO?

VP Biden
You can give some of the thanks to Vice-President Joe Biden for the improved financial fortunes of New Mexico's two national nuclear weapons labs. So says ABQ US Rep. Martin Heinrich who tells us he sees budget growth coming for Sandia Labs after several relatively flat years. That's a big deal for the state's largest city as Sandia's budget is $2.2 billion annually. The two labs employ about 20,000 New Mexicans.

Heinrich's optimism doesn't mean we will see the whopping 22 percent budget increase for Los Alamos and the 14 percent increase for Sandia that the Obama administration is recommending, but it does allay fears that there will be downsizing of the facilities. Congress will have the final word and a much smaller increase would not be unusual.

Heinrich, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, said "Biden gets it" when it comes to the labs. A recent nuclear policy speech by the Veep supports that narrative:

...The spread of nuclear weapons is the greatest threat facing our country. That is why we are working both to stop their proliferation and eventually to eliminate them. Until that day comes, though, we will do everything necessary to maintain our arsenal.

At the vanguard of this effort...are our nuclear weapons laboratories, national treasures that deserve our support. Their invaluable contributions range from building the world’s fastest supercomputers, to developing cleaner fuels, to surveying the heavens with robotic telescopes.

Unfortunately, during the last decade, our nuclear complex and experts were neglected and underfunded.

Tight budgets forced more than 2,000 employees of Los Alamos and Lawrence Livermore from their jobs between 2006 and 2008, including highly-skilled scientists...

Last December Sandia announced 100 layoffs, mostly among highly skilled machinists. The federal budget year begins October 1 and that's when any increased funding would kick in.

The ABQ metro is being slammed by a generations-high jobless rate (the official rate is near 9 percent) and the city government faces a record budget shortfall. If Heinrich has it right, at least one leg of the area's economic stool is not going to be chopped off.

THE PIVOT

Heinrich, seeking his second term this year, is pivoting toward the jobs issue after a year of the health care debate. He held a jobs fair in the city Monday, bringing the unemployed together with prospective employers. Republican Jon Barela is Heinrich's challenger.

THE SCENE

We ran into Heinrich the other day while having lunch with a friend at The Grove, a daytime eatery On Central just east of downtown. It's good. Most surprising was the robust cup of coffee. We thought Starbucks had a monopoly on that.

The scene is urban professional and the ambiance is lots of natural light.

Mayor Berry says the winning ways of the University of New Mexico basketball Lobos is putting ABQ residents in a jollier mood. He even says they are going out to dinner more. We don't know about that, but this is New Mexico Restaurant Week and there are quite a few specials available.

SHOWING THE MONEY
Brian Moore
GOP Light Guv hopeful Brian Moore has come with a $100,000 personal loan to his campaign, money he needs as he is up against John Sanchez, a wealthy ABQ businessman who can self-finance his effort. Also in the race are ABQ state Senator Kent Cravens and Santa Fe doctor J.R. Damron.

Moore became the latest politico to post his donations on his Web site, even though the next state disclosure report isn't due until April 12. Moore, however, did not post his expenditures. Aside from the 100k he gave himself, Moore, a grocery store owner and former Clayton area state rep, raised another $18,000.

Candidates have been more willing to early release their contributions in the wake of numerous state finance scandals. Maybe the Secretary of State should make available space on her Web site for voluntary disclosure to encourage more early reporting?

This Saturday's GOP preprimary convention will help tell the tale on the GOP race for #2. A candidate must score 20 percent of the delegates to get an official spot on the June 1 primary ballot. Moore, Sanchez and Cravens are seen as most likely making that mark.

LINCOLN DINNER

NM R's will have their annual Lincoln Day Dinner the evening of the preprimary where Rep. Pete Sessions, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, will give the keynote.

Sessions is hoping to take back the southern congressional seat from Dem Harry Teague. He also harbors hopes for Republican Jon Barela in the ABQ district held by Martin Heinrich. However, Sessions and the R's may not be able to free up enough money to make the ABQ race competitive.

Both the preprimary convention and the Lincoln dinner will be held at the ABQ Hilton this Saturday. State Dems will also have their preprimary this Saturday. They will meet at the Buffalo Thunder Resort & Casino at Pojoaque.

1994 REDUX
Gary Johnson
Every time--and we mean every time---we write about the big 1994 race for Governor between Republican Gary Johnson and Dem Bruce King and in which Johnson triumphed, we get email taking exception.

The latest round is over the gasoline tax and how Johnson and the R's used it as a rallying cry to defeat incumbent King. We didn't say it was the only reason for the King ouster, but it was a major element. With that said, we make room for reader Norm to vent over this bit of history:

...The decisive factor in 1994 was the rage of many Hispanic Dems at Bruce King's primary win over (Lt. Governor) Casey Luna, supposedly a result of a deal with Jim Baca to enter the race and siphon Hispanic votes away from Luna (a deal which I don't believe existed, but many did at the time).

It's certainly true that there was a national trend to the Republicans in 1994, but that didn't keep Jeff Bingaman from winning. Given that many Republicans were unhappy about Gary Johnson's primary win that year, it's hard to see how Luna wouldn't have beaten him, gas tax or not.

Casey Luna beating Johnson in '94? Hold the email, but we don't think so. We do think the Luna challenge to King was an important cause for the King loss, but not decisive.

Today's political climate is similar to 1994 when the R's took the Guv's chair here and the Congress nationally. There is a significant difference--the electorate seems even more dismayed and angered than during that epic year in state political history.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Di & Bill--Happier Times
Diane Denish's Operation Separation is off the launch pad and not a moment too soon for jittery Dems. The Light Guv began what will be a long and arduous effort to distance herself from the Governor she has served under for eight years by sharply attacking a state application for federal education funds that was found wanting and rejected. She called the state effort “lackluster” and “inexcusable.” Big Bill fired back that Di’s comments were “inappropriate, misinformed and unproductive."

Game On.

It's the first major public disagreement of Campaign 2010 between the state's #1 and #2 and earned a banner headline with photos in Saturday's fish wrapper. And it came only days after a devastating poll for the Governor, showing his approval rating plunging to a record low of 28%. Even if the accuracy of the poll from Public Policy Polling in DC is questioned, you can add ten points to Bill's numbers and he is still short of 40%.

This is adding urgency to the conversation when you talk with top Democrats about the governor's race. They say Denish not only needs to separate herself from Richardson, but also from last week's special legislative session that may be shaping up as politically disastrous for the state's majority party. Over $230 million in tax increases were approved, including the loathed and anti-populist food tax.

Denish's supporters point to her earlier statements rejecting taxes on "working families" but the political professionals retort that she has yet to express her views on the special session tax increases.

One top elected Dem told us he would have advised Denish to have conducted a news conference immediately after the conclusion of the special session, condemning the budget agreement, urging the Governor to veto the budget package and to call the lawmakers back.

That would be a bold move when the mood in the Denish camp still seems tentative as they continue to take the temperature of an ultra-moody (and angry) electorate. It is a delicate and dangerous balancing act.

But Operation Separation is going to be a lengthy, eight month ordeal. We suspect by the time it's over, Di will be disagreeing with Bill about everything from that education grant to whether you should pour red or green chile over your enchiladas.

CONSPIRACY WATCH

To the emailers who say Di and Bill will conspire over Operation Separation by consulting one another on which topics she will use to drive a wedge between the two, you have our blessing if not our belief.

THE GOP BEAT

Those who would not only like to see Bill and Di divided, but the Dems driven out of the Guv's office all together, are busy preparing for this weekend's GOP preprimary convention (The Dems also have theirs this Saturday). Three of the five GOP hopefuls are now on the radio airwaves--Allen Weh, Doug Turner and Janice Arnold-Jones.

Only about 450 delegates will be at the GOP preprimary, but the radio is inexpensive and gives the candidates a profile among the delegates before they cast their votes Saturday to determine who will get an official spot on the June 1 primary ballot.

¡VIVA LA REVOLUCION!

Now back to the revolution. The New Mexican says of the food tax fiasco:

The governor should veto the food tax. He'd be doing a favor to our state representatives, all of whose 70 seats are up for re-election this year. Let 'em return to Santa Fe — to their senses, too — and impose some less-unpopular taxes.

Veteran Las Cruces newsman Walt Rubel came with this:

It may require additional spending cuts, but Richardson would do New Mexico families a favor by vetoing the food tax.

And Attorney General Gary King, facing a re-election challenge from Clovis area District Attorney Matt Chandler, has donned his jogging suit and is running fast and hard against the food tax. Tax booze, not food, argues the AG:

I don't see alcohol that's something that's necessary to survive, and that's why we talk about these as ‘sin taxes’ because they are taxes on products that people want to consume, but don't have to consume.”

You wouldn't think a food tax would be an issue in a race for attorney general. That it is gives you an idea of what's going on out there.

And the attorney general's remarks are especially poignant coming as they do in the wake of Friday night's drunken slaughter of two Native American sisters on Santa Fe's Cerrillos Road. The man arrested has three previous DWI convictions. But Santa Fe worked overtime to discourage Tortilla abuse?

DEEPER THINKING

Let's delve deeper into the politics of the food tax. An insider writes:

Both Senator Sharer (R-San Juan) and Rep. Larranaga (R-ABQ) offered floor amendments in both chambers stripping the food tax from the larger tax package and got roll call votes. It wasn't totally party line voting. For example, Senator McSorley (D-ABQ) and Rep Kiki Saavedra (D-Bernalillo) voted with the Republicans to take the food tax out of the bill as well as five other House Democrats--Reps. Rodefer, Giannini, Madalena, Stapleton and Steinborn)...

The vote of Saavedra, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, is noteworthy. He has been on the whisper list as possibly drawing a progressive Dem primary opponent. None has materialized and Saavedra's vote is seen as keeping any prospective Dem foe at bay. The nomination is the game for him. His district is heavy Dem and the R's won't have much of a shot in November.

For freshman ABQ area Reps. Rodefer and Giannini the thumbs down on the food tax was a clear play against their Republican foes in November. Neither should draw Dem primary challenges, but their districts were traditional R areas until the Obama wave hit Bernalillo County in 2008. The two newcomers are seen as the most likely to lose their seats to the GOP this year.

Jeff Steinborn of Las Cruces has some seniority in his swing district--he is going for his third term--but the R's keep coming at him with good opponents. His vote against the food tax is aimed at fending off his November GOP rival.

In 1994 it was a six cents a gallon tax on gasoline that became the rallying cry for a disaffected electorate and a marginalized Republican Party. They had enough punch to throw Democrat Bruce King out of the Governor's office. Fast forward to 2010 and history could repeat. The two percent tax on food approved in the Special Session of the NM Legislature that concluded Thursday has all the ingredients to spark yet another voter revolt and perhaps again help deliver the Governor's office to the Republicans. (The AP wrap on the special is here.)

Kenneth Gonzales
The question in the wake of the nomination of Assistant US Attorney Ken Gonzales as the new NM US Attorney is what role current Republican US Attorney Greg Fouratt will play in the office. (White House release here.)

Richardson & Redford
All of you who bet that Big Bill was going to finish out his second four year term, start hedging those bets. Richardson is reportedly under consideration to become the CEO for the Motion Picture Association of America. This is a major plum. The current CEO, former Congressman Dan Glickman, pulls down a whopping $1.3 million a year in salary and benefits. The job is primarily lobbying Congress and is based in DC.

The news that Richardson's name was under consideration for the job that Glickman will leave next month was first reported by the National Journal's "Under the Influence" magazine.

Others in the mix are Robert Pisano, the former vice chairman of MGM, and currently MPAA's COO and Richard Bates, who was recently named the head of Disney's Washington D.C. office.

The Guv's office told the New Mexican in response to the job speculation:

The governor is not interested in this job and he is not interested in becoming a lobbyist. He plans to live in Santa Fe and drive around the country visiting Major League ballparks after term ends..

Only the other day the Guv hosted Hollywood acting legend Robert Redford at a Santa Fe news conference where Redford announced a new center for training Hispanic and Native American filmmakers. His administration has pushed hard for Hollywood here, passing major tax breaks for the industry that has made movie production here flourish like never before. The tax breaks, costing the state about $80 million a year, have generated controversy, with some state lawmakers questioning the generosity.

IMPACT ANALYSIS

We've blogged for the past year of the possibility of Richardson making an exit and paving the way for a Diane Denish governorship. Most of the speculation has centered on Bill going to work in some capacity for the Obama administration. But parachuting into private industry would be a much smoother way out, avoiding the controversy that is inevitable with any political appointment.

A Richardson adios in April would make Lt. Governor Denish the Governor seven months before the November election. That's a potential nightmare for the Republicans. Her name ID would soar, she would have the power of the incumbency and best of all--the chance to separate herself once and for all from the shadow of Richardson.

A Richardson departure would have to be welcome by the White House. It would mean the odds of the Guv's office staying in Democratic hands would soar, helping President Obama in his 2012 reelection effort in this crucial swing state. It makes one wonder if the White House, with connections to the K Street lobbying crowd, isn't putting a word in for Bill.

Richardson would be the first Governor to vacate the office without finishing his term since 1962 when Ed Mechem had himself appointed to fill a US Senate vacancy.

NEWS AVALANCHE

The latest Richardson stunner came amid a cascade of state political news. The Legislature was in day two of its special session to solve the state's budget crisis, city elections were held throughout the state and yet another state Bureau of Elections director was leaving the Secretary of State's office.

From Santa Fe there's news on the latest deal to solve the state's estimated $600 million shortfall for the budget year starting July 1st. The Senate late Tuesday passed, on a 25 to 15 vote, a bill that raises approximately $200 million through a combination of gross receipts and personal income tax changes. The income tax changes are aimed at the criticism heard here and elsewhere that the Senate was sparing the wealthy from any of the budget pain:

The Senate drafted an omnibus tax bill that would raise gross receipts taxes one eighth of a percent, allow local governments to raise gross receipts taxes on food, and close a New Mexico personal income tax deduction for payment of federal income taxes. That deduction is available only to state residents who itemize on their returns. The bill also would increase the amount of tax rebates for lower-income New Mexicans and allow more people to take advantage of that rebate.

A House committee, which on Monday voted against a bill raising the tax on cigarettes by 75 cents a pack, did an about face and voted — along party lines — to recommend passage of the bill. The committee agreed to earmark 25 cents of the increase for education.

The move to close that personal income tax deduction would hit high-income taxpayers most and was made to placate opponents of the tax on food. They argue that tax and other tax increases to balance the budget are being targeted mainly at middle and lower income residents. The deduction change made it possible for the Senate leadership to persuade progressive senators to swallow hard and vote for the bill which went to the House where debate went on into the wee morning hours.

ELECTION NEWS

No surprises in Santa Fe or Rio Rancho on Election Day. Incumbent Mayors David Coss and Tom Swisstack in Rio Rancho are both re-elected.

We had a cliffhanger in Espanola. Alice Lucero beat Alfred Herrera by fifteen votes. Lucero 791; Herrera 776. Herrera gave up his District 2 seat to run for mayor. Incumbent Mayor Joseph Maestas did not seek reelection.

Election results from around the state here.

ANOTHER ELECTIONS DIRECTOR OUT

Alligators reported Tuesday night that Kelli (Baca) Fulgenzi will become the new Bureau of Elections director under Secretary of State Herrera after yet another director bit the dust. Fulgenzi was an assistant city clerk in ABQ before joining the SOS as administrator of the Bureau.

Fulgenzi will succeed attorney A.J. Salazar who abruptly quit the $95,000 a year job after holding it for less than a year.

Insiders say Salazar, like previous election directors Daniel Ivey Soto and Gerald Gonzales, clashed with Deputy Secretary of State Don Francisco Trujillo who manages the day to day affairs at the SOS office.

The June primary election is only a couple of months away, but Herrera says she expects it to go smoothly, despite the turnover in the bureau. That's more than can be said for anyone who takes the bureau job. Mary is going to have to have a talk with Trujillo if we are going to get an election director who can stay the course.