<$BlogRSDUrl$>

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

The Political Backdrop To The Special Session: Dems Have High Cards As R's Work Overtime To Alter Perceptions: Guv's Low Approval Rating And Trump Troubles Also Factors 

There seems to be some confusion regarding the political backdrop that faces the New Mexico Legislature as it prepares to gavel itself into a special session Wednesday. Let's see if we can clear it up by beginning with a faulty premise that is blocking an easy resolution to achieving a state budget. That premise is presented by ABQ GOP State Rep. Jimmie Hall:

If you want to play chicken, I don’t think (the governor) is going to blink. I don’t think the Democrats want to be the ones to shut state government down.

The "game of chicken," of course, is over Martinez's insistence that an overhaul of the state's gross receipts tax structure be approved as the price for agreeing to a state budget with the Democrats.

The problem that Representative Hall and other radical House Republicans don't recognize--or prefer not to--is that the political cost of failure at this special session would rest with them and the Republican Governor, not the Democrats. Why?

First, for some reason it's rarely referenced in legislative reporting but it's a crucial fact. Governor Martinez's approval rating is at an anemic 43 percent and perhaps lower considering the chaos in the wake of the recent legislative session. She is deeply under water with New Mexican voters and has lost the power of the bully pulpit, a key element for any Governor's success.

Second, the Republicans failed in their effort to keep control of the state House at last November's election. It sounds obvious, but many legislative R's and the Fourth Floor are acting as if it didn't happen.

Third, the GOP is saddled with a President whose unpopularity has Democrats salivating over the prospect of using him to leverage further gains in the state House next year.

Fourth, the reality is that the Republicans do not have one major candidate on the field for their 2018 gubernatorial nomination, signaling a party in retreat and on the defense.

Fifth, Gov. Martinez's petulant veto of the entire higher education budget further injured her popularity and has forced her to the negotiating table. The Democrats sat back and waited and did so without panicking. She did not come with an acceptable plan but it was she who blinked when the Democrats refused to offer a replacement plan for the one she vetoed.

Given these realities the Democratic position of resisting a hasty overhaul of the state's gross receipts structure is not only the most rational policy but their most politically feasible path.

SEEING THE LIGHT

Sen. Sharer
State Senate Republicans long ago saw the light and one of them, Farmington Senator Bill Sharer, has even offered a fig leaf to the Governor in which the legislature would agree to a 90 day study of the tax overhaul. It's important to remember that Sharer is the Godfather of the current movement to rid the state of its many tax exemptions and lower the state GRT down to 2 percent. He was at this in 2013, long before Rep. Jason Harper who has taken the role of Governor's pet and joins her in insisting that the tax overhaul must be approved before the state's thousands of college students can receive an education.

It is that unreasonableness that gave majority Democrats in the Senate the needed Republican votes to override the Governor's veto of higher ed funding and which they did. The House R's would not go along and here we are.

Representatives Hall and Harper et al. fail to grasp the fundamental political change that has occurred. At this juncture the state, suffering from the highest unemployment rate in America, is not clamoring for more tax cuts or tax overhauls but simply to keep open the doors of the universities and colleges and to keep government funding flowing, even if it is at levels comparable to what they were in the budget of a decade ago.

Perhaps the past weakness of the Democrats in challenging Martinez has led them and their allies in the conservative media to pretend that nothing has changed--the old "perception is reality" argument.

Also, Hall, Harper and the other Republicans radicalized on economic matters still seem hypnotized by this lame duck Governor and Jay McCleskey, her political consultant, who they fear and swear allegiance to. It's like hostages who have become comfortable with their captivity even as the doors of freedom have been opened to them.

But the page has indeed turned and the parade is moving on. To reiterate: Senate Democrats have just won four year terms. They have nothing to fear. The House is firmly Democratic again. The House Republican agenda has been rejected and the public has tired of the Republican chief executive.

Democrats have the high cards and it is their responsibility to play them as directed by the electorate. That means resisting any efforts to blackmail them into approving a minority Republican agenda by holding hostage the state's higher education system. It is incumbent upon them to make the minority "blink" and if they don't to ensure they assume the blame if Rep. Hall's forecast of a government shutdown comes to fruition,

REDEFINING REALITY

The state GOP is joining in the effort to try to redefine the current political realities by sending a missive urging New Mexicans to contact a list of Democrats in swing House districts to either sign up for the Republicans budget or face the consequences.

Democrats in Santa Fe has (sic) proved once again that they are out of touch with the needs of New Mexicans. They have proposed a "business as usual" budget that protects their bloated and over-funded legislative retirement accounts but slashes education funding. Please call these legislators to tell them that you mean business and that if they don’t vote for the House Republican budget we will SEND THEM PACKING!

That brought a chuckle from the Alligators and insiders who are more than aware that it is actually the top R in the state House--Minority Leader Rep. Nate Gentry--rather than any Democrats--who could be most imperiled by a government shutdown. His ABQ NE Heights district is turning increasingly moderate.

But let's not forget "The Nate Nine," identified here as possible swing House R votes to get a budget quickly and forget about the Martinez/Harper GRT deal. The Nate Nine are from the ABQ metro with the exception of Rep. Yvette Herrell of Alamogordo. The others are: Gentry, Reps. Dines, Larranaga, Fajardo, Rehm, Powdrell, Tim Lewis and Maestas-Barnes. They've shown signs of moderation and independence from the Governor's political machine.

Rep. Candie Sweetser of Deming was one of the swing seat Dems targeted in that GOP email but it didn't take. She authored an op-ed sticking by the Democratic plan to pass a budget and approve only a study of the tax overhaul. We suspect it will be her view that will have prevailed when the special session packs up and leaves town.

SETTLEMENT OFFER

How about we take a stab at settling that brouhaha over how much the new mayor of Santa Fe should be paid? The top salary proposed is the way-too-high $175,000 plus benefits. On the low side is the proposed $74,000. The midway point between the two is $101,000. How's that sound? Aah, if it only it were that easy.

Speaking of salaries, here are the latest for some of the highest paid at ABQ's city hall:

--Chief Administrative Officer Rob Perry, paid $92.29 an hour or $191,963.20 a year.

--APD Chief Gordon Eden, paid $81.00 an hour or $168,480 a year.

--BioPark Chief Executive Officer James Allen, paid $77.48 an hour or $161,158.40 a year.

--Chief Operations Officer Michael Riordan, paid $73.53 an hour or $152,942.40 a year.

--City Attorney Jessica M. Hernandez, paid $72.99 an hour or $151,819.20 a year.

--Fire Chief David W. Downey, paid $64.09 an hour or $134,992 a year.

--Mayor’s Chief of Staff Gilbert A. Montano, paid $61.27 an hour or $127,441 a year.

Now all you Alligators looking for jobs with the new mayor when he or she takes office in December know what kind of pay to ask for. Hey, we're here to serve. . .

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017

Thursday, May 18, 2017

Is "Being The First" Enough For Haaland To Take 1st CD Seat? Plus: The Econ Beat: Fleeing Skilled Workers Leave Facebook Project Short, And:Gold Mines For Consultants Don't Light Up NM's Future 

Deb Haaland
There's something to be said for being first. In 2010 Gov. Martinez's campaign  constantly reminded the electorate that she would be "the nation's first Hispanic female Governor." No doubt the Republican garnered many Hispanic Democratic voters who wanted to push her into the history books. Now comes a Democratic candidate for Congress who is also touting what would be a first. . .

Deb Haaland, 57, former NM Dem Party chair, attorney and member of Laguna Pueblo would be the first Native American woman to serve in the US House of Representatives,  if she were elected next year to the ABQ congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham and which Haaland officially announced for this week.

Unlike Martinez, Haaland would probably not have the appeal across party lines that Martinez had, but then she really doesn't need it. The ABQ congressional seat has become deep blue and winning the June '18 primary election will be tantamount to winning the seat in November, barring an extraordinary occurrence.

Haaland has seen first hand what being first means. When Gov. Martinez sought re-election in 2014 Haaland was the Democratic lieutenant governor candidate, paired with Guv nominee Gary King. They suffered a severe defeat but it gave Haaland a taste for public office.

Haaland released a solid video along with her announcement. The question now is can she raise enough funds and conduct a smooth, professional campaign? Being first comes with expectations. Among her top opponents for the Dem nomination and who will be ready to take advantage of any Haaland missteps is former US attorney Damon Martinez who is expected to join the race soon, ABQ City Councilor Pat Davis who is already announced and attorney Antoinette Sedillo Lopez.

HECTOR'S LEARNING CURVE

If Attorney General Hector Balderas has his eyes on Senator Tom Udall's US senate seat now that he has decided not to run for governor, those eyes may get very tired.

Udall, who will be 72 when he is up for re-election in 2020, shows little sign of aging, and the 70's seem to be the new 60's in the world of politics. After all, Trump is over 70 and president. Also, the Alligator betting odds have Udall running again, barring any health issues. By the way, Udall's father, onetime Secretary of Interior Stewart Udall, lived to the ripe old age of 90.

There is rarely a free throw for a US senate seat or a governorship. Hector is finding that out fast.

Meanwhile Senator Martin Heinrich is in the sweet spot when it comes to the news cycle. From his perch on the Senate Intelligence Committee he is making dozens of media appearances about the Trump chaos and in the process shaping his image as as a national defense expert as he prepares for his '18 re-election effort. There is plenty of time for the cycle to turn, but right now it doesn't get much better than this for the state's junior senator. As someone once said: "Enjoy it while it lasts, because it never does."

STILL ANEMIC

If you head into one of ABQ's popular restaurants on a Friday night you might think the economy here is booming and that spending is off the charts. But the data doesn't support the conclusion. Take a look:

Albuquerque’s gross receipts tax revenues, which provide 64 percent of the city’s total revenue, will increase only 1 percent overall this year – well short of the 2.3 percent increase anticipated in the city’s current budget. The city’s gross receipt tax revenue for May and June would need to grow more than 12 percent over last year to meet revenue projections for the year, Romero said.

Accounting for inflation, that is negative growth in the GRT which is the biggest contributor to the city budget and a key economic indicator. The fact is ABQ is like much of the nation--the "haves" with good jobs are packing the restaurants and auto dealer lots but the many "have nots" continue to scrape by. The numerous dollar stores and payday lending outlets attest to that new economy here. It has been that way long enough to be called "the new normal."

FACEBOOK JOB, ANYONE?

And here's an interesting note on how the state's seemingly never-ending economic stagnation is impacting even the good news. There's trouble filling good paying jobs at the new Facebook data center being constructed in Los Lunas.

Affordable Solar has signed on to build three solar farms for the data center and is starting construction in July on the $45 million project. It has 54 job openings it is advertising. The problem? They can't find folks to fill them. Kevin Bassalleck, president of Affordable Solar explains:

The majority of the 50+ people we’re adding will be construction positions, specifically installers and electricians. The pay range for installers is $15 - $19 / hr and $24 - $33 / hr for electricians. The biggest challenge is the amount of qualified and experienced electricians. I think the relative lack of construction activity in the NM market in recent years has had an impact on the local labor force, and it has likely driven qualified men and women to other markets in search of steady work. We have a very strong portfolio of projects with the Facebook sites, as well as other regional projects that will keep us busy for quite a long time, so we’re able to establish a robust hiring plan with that certainty. 

The company has even put up a billboard in an effort to attract qualified applicants, but with the out migration of skilled people we've seen in the state in recent years, they may have to put that billboard up in Arizona and Texas.

BEWARE THE SPECIALS

Beware all these special elections, Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico. The fights over peripheral issues have become fodder for the professional consulting and donor classes that have gobs of cash and are spending it on issues that matter little to the future of the state, but generate much emotion and profit:

Two political action committees that duked it out over a proposed Santa Fe tax on sugary beverages spent more than $4 million on their campaigns, final finance reports showed, shattering fundraising records for a municipal election. The group that worked to defeat the proposed tax, Better Way for Santa Fe & Pre-K, won not only the election but the money war, taking in about $2.18 million in cash and in-kind contributions and spending about $189.31 per vote. All cash donations came from the American Beverage Association, a Washington, D.C.-based trade group that poured in more than $1.9 million. . .

What will be voting on next? Whatever the political consultants and their big money benefactors want us to?

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Grisham Dodges A Balderas Bullet As AG Nixes Guv Run; Anyone Else Out There? New Name But An Old Face Surfaces For GOP Guv Field And Caucasian In Taos  

Balderas and Grisham
Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham dodged a bullet as Attorney General Hector Balderas, seen as her chief potential rival for the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nomination, decided not to enter the race and instead will seek a second four year term as AG.

That puts Grisham in the catbird's seat to secure the nomination with the important caveat that here is still a year to go until the primary and other major entries are possible, if increasingly unlikely.

ABQ businessman Jeff Apodaca and anti-alcohol educator Pete DeBenedettis are the only other Dem contenders in the contest and both have a major hill to climb in raising money and garnering name ID.

Back in March Don Ana County state Senator Joe Cervantes told us he "is all in" for the governor's race and would make an announcement in April, but that date has come and gone and Cervantes still has not made a move.

Despite the lure of a race with no incumbent, observers see the high cost of running a primary election--upwards of $2 million--as a major disincentive to join the fray. Cervantes has personal wealth that could make him competitive but still there has been no outcry from Democrats against the easy ride Grisham has been getting.

Grisham's supporters will start to argue more convincingly that the bare field is because she is a superior candidate and that will help with fund-raising.

The Republican problem recruiting a major name candidate is well-known. Gov. Martinez is unpopular and her record will be hard to defend. So far, no R has decided to take up that challenge.

As for Balderas, he will be an odds-on favorite to win a second term as attorney general next year with probably no Dem primary opposition and only token Republican opposition. A Guv run would have forced him to give up that job--a high risk move. At 43, he can afford to wait for better opportunities and he will.

And there's this from Michelle who was ready to lower the axe on the neck of Balderas if he challenged her, but now it's all peace and love. Cue the Beatles, here she comes:

Hector Balderas would have been a tough competitor if he chose to run for Governor because he has such a strong record as a legislator, Auditor and Attorney General. In addition to his successful prosecution of Internet crimes against children and Medicaid fraud cases, Attorney General Balderas is leading efforts to challenge President Trump’s executive orders to ensure they are Constitutional, fair and just. I look forward to a strong partnership with him as we work together to meet the challenges in New Mexico and serve and protect our citizens.

Hey, when he carried her across the threshold as shown in the photo above, we knew love was is the air.

THE PEARCE QUAGMIRE

Southern NM GOP Congressman Steve Pearce has the ability to raise the money and the tough political skin to subject himself to the stern attacks he would endure if he chose to seek the '18 GOP Guv nomination, but Pearce is sinking deeper and deeper into the Trump quagmire and in no small part because of his vote in favor to repeal and replace Obamacare. Take a look at his recent congressional newsletter:

We’ve seen and heard a lot of misinformation being shared online and sparking debates on social media, which is why I’ve taken this opportunity to address some of your biggest concerns. As your representative, it is my job to ensure that you have all the facts so that we can work better together to bring greater opportunity to New Mexico.

The problem for Steve is when you're defending, you're not advancing.

By the way, we blogged that Pearce's only statewide race was against Dem Tom Udall for US senate in 2008 and which he lost, but an informed reader points to Pearce's ill-fated run in 2000 for the US Senate GOP nomination against Bill Redmond as another example of a statewide Pearce contest. Well, kind of. Only R's were eligible to vote in that race, so we did not consider it a true statewide battle, but for those who see it that way, we mention it. Pearce lost to Redmond, a former congressman, 60% to 22% with other candidates making up the margin. Dem Senator Jeff Bingaman crushed Redmond in the general election 62% to 38%.

LYONS FOR GOVERNOR?

So, if not Pearce for Governor (who is still mulling over a run) and not ABQ Mayor Berry (although he could still dive in) and not Lt. Gov. Sanchez (who has all but announced for the US Senate seat held by Dem Martin Heinrich) then who? How about outgoing Public Regulation Commissioner (PRC) Pat Lyons?

Insiders say if none of the three Rs listed above go for the nomination, the  GOP may turn to Lyons for a name candidate, even if he does carry plenty of political baggage accumulated over the years.

Our Alligators inform that Lyons, who is term-limited on the PRC, was recently reaching across party lines regarding 2018 and met with a former Santa Fe County Dem Party official who has worked the north. He'll need a lot of reaching out if he is to defy the odds and make it to the Governor's chair, but the news is he just might get the chance.

One other thing, if the call goes out to Lyons he might be a sacrificial lamb but given his statewide performance in the past, he could limit the damage the GOP might take in lower ballot races such as the state House.

CALLING CAUCASIANS

We all know of the aging hippie class in Taos that dominates liberal politics there but we never heard it quite described this way until Taos News reporter Jesse Moya penned:

The event was attended by more than 50 individuals, largely representing the left-wing Caucasian baby-boomer generation in the Taos area.


Not for anything, but isn't the Taos news owned by Caucasian left wing baby boomer Robin Martin? And it would take an Anglo...err...we mean Caucasian from Pennsylvania like us to point that out.

THE BOTTOM LINES

We characterized the jobs at Trader Joe's grocery store as of the $10 an hour variety but reader Laura Sanchez writes: 

Several sites regarding company wages report Trader Joe's average wage as $13.20.

We were comparing the Trader Joe's jobs that the mayor of Rio Rancho is hoping to attract to those being lost at Intel there and that are some of the highest paying in the state. Not to knock Trader Joe's. We like the name, of course, and when the time comes for us to hang up our spurs, bagging groceries at Trader Joe's beats that Wal-Mart greeting job the Alligators are trying to push us into.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Early Mayoral Polling Has "Big Three" Holding Lead, Pearce's #1 Fan May Hold Key To His Guv Run, No Dunn Dynasty As US Attorney Names Sent To White House And An Expensive Hospital  

We have our official ABQ mayoral field--all nine of them--and inquiring minds want to know who stands where with less than five months before the election.

There has been no public polling and there may not be any until well into the summer, but there has been campaign polling--at least two of them--that we have been made aware of--and we can report that the race still revolves around what we dubbed at the outset of the contest as the "Big Three."

Both campaign polls we have been alerted to by our reliable Alligators show Democrat Tim Keller leading the field with Republican Dan Lewis very close behind and former Dem Party Chairman Brian Colon placing third but quite a bit back of Keller and Lewis. Coming in fourth in the polling was former Dem BernCo Commissioner Deanna Archuleta. The remaining five hopefuls registered marginal support.

The early surveys confirm the danger Lewis faces from fellow Republican hopefuls Wayne Johnson and Ricardo Chavez. If Lewis had the GOP field all to himself he might be in first place.

Just about everyone watching this race expects there to be a run-off election between the two top vote-getters following the initial October 3rd balloting. That's because it would  would take a candidate securing 50 percent of the vote to win the mayor's office outright. The insider polling indicates that is unlikely and a run-off is a near certainty.

STOPPING STEVE

What's stopping Steve? Southern NM GOP Congressman Steve Peace is touring the Land of Enchantment this month as he tests the waters for a 2018 GOP Guv run. The conservative lawmaker could easily have the nomination, but getting elected is another story. The R's are on the ropes after eight years of Gov. Martinez and the Dems are favored to take the Governor's chair next year.

Pearce's one foray into statewide politics ended disastrously in 2008. That's when Dem Tom Udall beat Pearce for a US Senate seat by a margin of 61 to 39 percent. That has to be giving pause to Pearce but there's another reason.

Our Alligators report that Pearce's wife Cynthia is not very keen on Pearce making the high-risk Guv run and giving up his congressional seat to do so. Her advice could well outweigh the hundreds of GOP well-wishers who Pearce is hearing from and who are pushing him to run. If Pearce, soon to be 70, really has the fire in the belly to seek the Governor's office he may have to go overtime with the pillow talk if he's to convince his #1 fan.

On the Democratic side alcohol-prevention teacher Peter DeBenedittis of Santa Fe has made official his run for the Dem nomination:

DeBenedittis formally announced his candidacy Monday, describing himself as a progressive Democrat and political outsider who does not owe favors to past political contributors. A New Mexico resident since 1995, DeBenedittis wants to pursue policies that expand early childhood education and provide universal health insurance coverage, while increasing taxes on alcohol and cigarettes. He has not previously run for public office.

DeBenedittis joins Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham and ABQ businessman Jeff Apodaca in the Dem chase. but unlike them he is not expected to raise oodles of cash for his campaign.

NO DUNN DYNASTY

Anderson
So much for a Dunn dynasty. Early rumors that ABQ attorney Blair Dunn, son of GOP State Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn, was in line to become the new US Attorney for New Mexico did not pan out. The news:

Rep. Pearce and Senators Udall have agreed to send to the White House the names of Fred Federici, currently an assistant U.S. attorney in Albuquerque, and John C. Anderson, a Santa Fe-based former federal prosecutor now with the Holland & Knight law firm.

Anderson is an R and Federici is a Dem so it's expected the White House will send Anderson's name to the US Senate for confirmation. He would be in line to replace former Dem US Attorney Damon Martinez who is expected to seek the Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Grisham.

Did Dunn's reputation a a political firebrand thwart his ambitions? Could be. As for Aubrey Sr, he's expected to seek a second term as land commissioner next year and will probably face off against Dem Ray Powell who he beat for the seat in 2014.

EXPENSIVE HOSPITAL

That $250 million price tag for a new 120 bed UNM hospital was an eyebrow raiser. Why so much? That's a question Terry Storch tackled on social media:

I am a supporter of public hospitals and a taxpayer, but the price tag appears far too high. Industry average for hospital construction is $1.5 million a bed, and a new hospital in Merced, CA, came in at under $900,000 per bed. This price tag is $2 million a bed. After the expensive and unnecessarily lavish Bill and Barbara Richardson wing at UNM hospital and after the public suffering staggering prices for health care and the prospect of loss of care under the Republican "plan," I want to see hospital money spent on function not fashion. 

TRADER JOE'S OR INTEL?

From Rio Rancho: 

Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull launched a social media campaign this month, asking residents to reach out to Trader Joe’s and request a new location to open in the area.In his online post on May 2, Hull’s minute-long Facebook video asked residents to “take the Mayor’s Challenge” and fill out a request form on Trader Joe’s website.

Maybe he should have them to take a Mayor's challenge to get Intel to stop laying off people in Rio Rancho, instead of trying to attract $10 an hour jobs from the grocery chain. But then Intel and all those high-paying jobs at Rio Rancho already appear poised to join the ash heap of history.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017

Thursday, May 11, 2017

Supremes Won't Get Involved In Battle Over Guv's Vetoes, No New Taxes Ever? Martinez Waffles On Key Pledge As She Entertains Food Tax; Key Lawmakers Say No Way, Plus: "The Nate Nine"; The House R's Who Did Not Sign Brief Urging Supremes To Back Martinez Vetoes 

F
It's back to the drawing board for the state budget. The NM Supreme court has rebuffed the Legislature in its tussle against Gov. Martinez over her vetoes:

The state Supreme Court on Thursday denied a petition by legislators challenging line-item vetoes by Gov. Susana Martinez that wiped out funding for higher education and the Legislature. The court’s order noted that Martinez has called a special session of the Legislature to begin May 24 to deal with the state budget and taxes.

Dems were hoping the court would rule against Martinez's vetoes, making the path to a budget agreement easier. As things stand now the two sides are gridlocked and a special session is scheduled for May 24. Meantime. . . 
Her desire for a legacy of any kind appears to be driving Gov. Martinez away from the one legacy she supposedly savors most--her pledge to never raise taxes. In an abrupt about face she has walked back her longstanding opposition to a food tax, saying if it is part of a tax reform package that doesn't raise taxes overall, she would consider reimposing the tax that was repealed beginning in 2005.

But rather than giving her a legacy as a tax reformer, she risks the lasting nickname of Hypocrite in Chief. Take a look.

“The governor has long opposed – and continues to oppose – a tax on food and groceries in New Mexico,” said Martinez’s press secretary, Enrique Knell. –The New Mexican “Municipal League’s plan to renew food tax gets chilly reception – 12/19/2014

The governor has long opposed and continues to oppose reinstating a tax on food and groceries in New Mexico,” said Martinez spokesperson Michael Longeran in a statement. KRQE News 13 – “Food tax reemerges as budget worries grow.” 02/04/16

And here are many more quotes where the Governor vowed not to support a food tax. It turns out "never" may not be very long after all in Susana's world.

The food tax is dreaded by those who champion the middle class and working poor and the hard-fought repeal of it has become a rallying point for them. If legislative Democrats start fiddling with it--as they did by supporting repeated tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations--they may as well turn the keys of the Roundhouse over to the R's.

Fortunately, even conservative Dems like Sen. John Arthur Smith, who in the past has favored bringing back the tax, is pronouncing it dead on arrival in the upcoming special session.

Even as Martinez was flirting with reimposing a food tax, the Wednesday news reinforced why that is some of the most half-assed public policy we've heard around here in decades:

For the second year in a row, New Mexico ranks as the second worst state in the country when it comes to having hungry children. The Map the Meal Gap 2017 report just came out and looked at how hunger is a problem across the country. According to the study, one in four children is at risk of hunger in New Mexico. Overall, including adults, one in six is at risk.

THE NATE NINE

While Martinez tries to divide the Dems over the food tax her own house is deeply divided. Let's dive deep with the Alligators and explore "The Nate Nine."

The NM Supreme Court next Monday will consider a legislative challenge to Governor Martinez's vetoes of the entire higher education funding as well as money to run the Legislature. 23 House Republicans signed onto a legal brief that urges the high court to reject the challenge. But there are 32 House Republicans. Why didn't all of them sign, most notably House Minority Leader Nate Gentry?

Isn't it interesting that if those nine happened to joined with the 38 House Democrats they would be able to override Governor Martinez's vetoes? The override votes are already there in the Senate where the R's are evenly split in their support of Martinez.

The threat of enough House R's balking and putting an end to this budget debacle by overriding vetoes remains a long shot, but at a minimum The Nate Nine seem to have put themselves in position to leverage the Governor over the budget deal that finally emerges. That's what happens when a Guv's approval rating is at 42 percent (or lower) and she's a lame duck.

The Nate Nine are from the ABQ metro with the exception of Rep. Yvette Harrell of Alamogordo. The others are: Gentry, Reps. Dines, Larranaga, Fajardo, Rehm, Powdrell, Tim Lewis and Maestas-Barnes.

These lawmakers are representative of the business establishment wing of the GOP. Tea Party sympathizers are notably absent.

We've noted repeatedly that Rep. Gentry's NE Heights district is getting more blue by the month and he is ripe for another strong Dem challenge in 2018. Now here's a twist on that: Our Alligators report that Gentry's first challenge next year could be in the Republican primary.

Danielle Harden, a teacher and daughter of former state senator and prominent lobbyist Clint Harden, is said to be considering a challenge to Gentry in next year's primary. Even if she's only floating her name that news deserves a cry of "Boom!"

Surely, Gentry doesn't need to support a food tax or further cuts to our public schools. That would alienate his own primary voters as well as Democratic voters, right?  What he and his eight allies could use is a pragmatic budget deal that walks the Governor back from the edge of the abyss and puts the budget mess far behind them.

The Nate Nine team is about to take the field at the special session. Stay tuned.

TV TALK

When the Alligators saw that the Jeff Apodaca campaign for Governor was not saying how much it was spending on the TV ad buy it put up in ABQ and El Paso, they got busy. They report that the Dem Guv candidate made a smallish buy for the week of May 3-9 of $10,000 in the ABQ market and $5,000 in the El Paso TV market.

A buy like that is aimed at getting the bragging rights that you were "the first" candidate up with paid TV. Apodaca got that, but the small buy is not going to put the fear of God in any of his rivals.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Dem Lt. Gov Candidates Coming in, Apodaca First With TV In Guv Race, Balderas Guv Decision In Next Two Weeks And Some City Council Action 

There are too many possible Dem lieutenant governor candidates to mention but the definite hopefuls are starting to surface.

Former state House Majority Leader Rick Miera tells us he will announce "soon" and supporters of state Senate Majority Whip Michael Padilla say he is "99 percent in" and can be expected to join the race after the special legislative session slated for May 24.

Both Padilla and Miera are from ABQ. Taos educator Jeff Carr has been actively campaigning for months. As for the R side, as with their Governor's race their potential lieutenant governor candidates are few and far between. . .

Democrat Jeff Apodaca is the first Dem Guv candidate up with paid TV ads. The commercials are created from an introductory video he made when he officially announced this month. He says the ads are running in the ABQ and El Paso TV markets but isn't saying how much the campaign spent on them. The primary is still over a year away, but Apodaca faces Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham for the nomination and she commands high name in the ABQ metro. Still, that's pretty early paid media. . .

Hector Balderas political consultant Caroline Buerkle says the attorney general will make a decision on an '18 Dem Guv run in "the next two weeks." Insiders are betting that he decides to seek re-election as AG next year and point to a photo of him holding Rep. Grisham in his arms like a bride at a recent Dem state convention. But until we hear it from his lips the watch goes on. . .

ABQ mayoral candidate Dan Lewis is out with a video that firmly confronts the serious issues the city faces--crime and economic stagnation. It's playing to a Facebook audience. Lewis has been on the council for nearly eight years which is both a blessing and a curse. He is well-acquainted with the issues but his opponents will soon begin to fault him for not doing enough about the problems his video effectively outlines. Those opponents include GOP Commissioner Wayne Johnson who could be front and center in leading the opposition against his fellow R.

Is Gov. Martinez Chief of Staff Keith Gardner jealous over this:

One of Gov. Martinez’s deputy chiefs of staff is leaving the Governor’s Office this week to work for a private law firm in Albuquerque. Jeremiah Ritchie, who has worked in the Governor’s Office since 2011, has been one of Martinez’s top legislative negotiators and helped craft a new 22-year gambling compact between the state and five Indian tribes that was signed in 2015.

Gardner has been chief of staff for the governor since she took office in 2011. The Santa Fe rumor mill constantly swirls with reports of his imminent departure.

CITY COUNCIL ACTION

Borrego
Our blog on GOP attorney and Gov. Martinez backer Robert Aragon emerging as a leading candidate for city council in District 5 on ABQ's northwest side brought a load of email, including a request for equal time from one of his opponents in the October election. She's Democrat Cynthia Borrego:

I consider myself a moderate as my mother's family (Martinez from Chimayo) we're strong R's, and my Father's family (Borrego's from Santo Nino) we're strong Democrats. I'm a registered Democrat, but because of this experience I am not afraid to reach across the isle in making decisions.  I retired from the city of Albuquerque after working as a City/County Planner for over 28years. In addition, I worked for years with the community (both at the neighborhood and the business levels) developing sustainable communities.

I believe in Albuquerque and that is why I've never left (though I've had other out of state job opportunities), and that is one of the reasons I'm running for office. I truly believe we have a responsibility to do better.

Environmental issues are extremely important to me for a sustainable future for our children. The rising crime in our city is paramount and requires strategies to reign it in, one of which is creating land use design opportunities to curb it. I could continue, but I will wait until my first debate. . .

And we'll be hearing from all the council and mayoral candidates as we cover Mayoral Election '17.

SHOWING THE FINGER

First it was the soda tax now Santa Feans are getting ready to show their middle fingers yet again to city officials:

A city commission charged with determining what salary Santa Fe’s mayor should get when the position changes next year from part-time policymaker to full-time chief executive is considering a pay range of $145,000 to $175,000. . .. It’s also at least $35,000 more than the governor of New Mexico’s $110,000-a-year salary and higher than the mayor of Albuquerque’s $125,000 annual pay.

They call Santa Fe "the city different" and it's doing all it can to live up to that moniker.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In a first draft Tuesday we said the special legislative session is slated for March 24. Of course, that date is long gone. The special has been called by Gov. Martinez for May 24.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017

Tuesday, May 09, 2017

Special Wreck Of Legislature On Course As Guv Clash With Dems Continues, Pearce Governor Fantasy Is Meeting Reality And ABQ Mayor Race May Be "All Crime All The Time" 

It's politically clever but also a possible way out of this state budget mess. By calling for the bean counters to take another look at the revenue estimates for the budget year that begins July 1, Senator John Arthur Smith and his colleagues could avert the need for a special session that the Governor has called for May 24. How?

If the NM Supreme Court this month finds that Gov. Martinez's vetoes of the entire higher education budget and funding for the legislature were unconstitutional it would still leave a hole of $70 million, according to the Legislative Finance Committee. However, revenues have been picking up a bit and if the forecast turned out to be better that expected--say an extra $70 million--then the budget would be balanced and the legislature could wait until its January session to again get into the budget weeds.

But Martinez is nothing if not determined to inflict maximum pain on the lawmakers she has come to despise. Her emotions are running hot and she is intent on calling them back for a special session May 24th that could drag on for days since she is calling it without a deal. In fact, she is resisting any attempts to get those new budget estimates even as some members of her own party urge her to do so.

House Minority Leader Nate Gentry says it will take "political courage" to solve the impasse, with both sides giving. But the radical members in his caucus who oppose any revenue enhancement under any circumstances are not prone to compromise.

A CLINGING GUV

The Governor, now perhaps in a panic that she has no governing legacy, is clinging to GOP Rep. Jason Harper who along with the conservative media is pushing a complex tax code revision in exchange for a budget deal. Martinez has now put that bill on her call for the special. Talk about gumming up the works--and at a cost of $50,000 for each day of the special.

The Harper bill--inform the aforementioned Santa Fe bean counters--is a complete unknown when it comes to its impact on state revenues. That seems reason enough for it to be kicked to the curb and pronto. And Dem Rep. Bill McCamley, who has collaborated with Harper on this Rube Goldberg scheme, ought to be one of those kicking the hardest:

McCamley, who met with Harper last month to discuss the legislation, said there’s no agreement in place and that Democratic legislators have some serious misgivings about the proposal – including the potential reimposition of a tax on food items.“Anything that is proposed is going to have to be thoroughly analyzed.”

Clearly a special legislative session is not the time to make sweeping and unknowable changes to the tax code. Tax reform--including Harper's--needs consideration but it can and should wait for the next Governor in 2019, instead of being used as a bludgeon over the heads of lawmakers in the midst of a vituperative political atmosphere.

Harper has become a darling of the Tea Party but his bill is completely out of sync with the times as noted by Senate Majority Leader Peter Wirth. He points out it would do nothing to generate revenue for the state but could end up costing untold millions--just like the ill-advised corporate income tax cut that both parties celebrated in 2013. That rushed cut has cost millions annually and delivered none of the promised jobs.

Faced with an intransigent but unpopular and lame duck governor, the Democratic leadership has been hanging tough in resisting further budget cuts. For them it has been a grueling six plus years of gubernatorial humiliation, intimidation and vindictiveness. They finally seem to have had enough. Good luck with that, Susana.

THE PEARCE PROBLEM

Pearce and Prez
The fantasy of a Steve Pearce governorship is looking even more Pollyannish in the wake of his vote to repeal Obamacare. The southern NM GOP congressman may now want to watch his back in his own district.

That repeal--even though it's likely doomed in the US Senate--is going to prove widely disliked in New Mexico. Medicaid expansion here has been dramatic and  thousands of residents have qualified for subsidized health insurance under Obamacare.

Nervous Republicans are now watching to see if a "wave" is developing against House R's in the 2018 cycle. The photo of Pearce with Trump congratulating one another on the Obamacare repeal in the White House Rose Garden is not going to play well in populous Dona Ana County which has never been a fan of Pearce and which is growing in influence as the rural population in the sprawling southern district declines.

Pearce's relationship with Trump and VP Pence could be positive for the district but the hard line on Obamacare and border security is breaking against him in heavy Dem Las Cruces and environs.

No big name Democratic candidate has surfaced to run against Pearce next year but you would think that a youngish and well-spoken state Senator like Howie Morales of Silver City might be wondering about a run. He would not have to give up his Senate seat to make the run since it is not up for election until 2020.

Because Peace has dominated the district folks forget that 58 percent of the 2nd CD is Democratic and  only 28 percent Republican with 18 percent independent.

Ousting an incumbent congressman is a rarity in New Mexico, but the Obamacare debacle and the Republican obsession with the border and immigration are pushing the conservative Pearce further into the arms of Trump and even further to the right than what may be good for his political health.

Pearce will turn 70 in a few months and what would be a whimsical run for governor would be out of character. Whether the Dems let Pearce rest easy in his own backyard in '18 is the question now on the table.

ALL CRIME 

Crime always dominates an ABQ mayoral race, but against this backdrop this year's contest could be like one of Governor Martinez's legislative sessions: "All Crime All The Time":

. . . Since 2010, the amount of home burglaries reported to Albuquerque police range anywhere from 300 to 500 per month.That amounts to more than 4,000 home break-ins per year. The worst month on record in recent years for home burglaries in Albuquerque was in August of 2013. There were 509 that month, compared to 348 last August.

Is this ongoing crime wave the biggest failure of leadership in the modern history of ABQ?

ALLIGATOR FIND

Pete Dinelli, former ABQ mayoral candidate, city councilor, public safety director, attorney and now an ABQ blogger,  reports on his recent trip to New Orleans with wife Betty:

We ran into one of Joe Monahan's sources and asked her who the next Mayor and Governor would be and she refused to comment.

Boy, does that Lady Gator have a lot to say, but only to us. Pete and Betty get a finder's fee but you'll get the exclusive, insider story of the ABQ mayor's race right here.

THE BOTTOM LINES

She's all yours, DC. We had our fill:

The Senate confirmed President Trump's pick to lead the Air Force, the first of his military branch leaders to get through the upper chamber. Senators voted 76-22 for Heather Wilson to be the next Air Force secretary, with only a simple majority needed to approve her nomination.

The vote came one day after Wilson's longtime mentor--former NM US Senator Pete Domenici--turned 85. Now they have a reason to party together again. . .

We note the passing of behind-the-scenes ABQ political player Lino Martinez. The Rio Arriba County native was a get-out-the-vote expert of the old school variety whose family says participated in every state election of the past 60 years as a volunteer, candidate or elected official. His understanding of La Politica and determination to be on the winning side benefited a number of hopefuls including ABQ Mayor Ken Schultz who served in the 80's. Lino Martinez was 85. His full obituary is here

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017

Thursday, May 04, 2017

Guv Friendly City Council Candidate Robert Aragon On Campaign Trail, State Permanent Fund Soars As State Stagnates And Trump's Favorite Guvs (Not Susana) 

Robert Aragon
A member in good standing with the Guv's political machine is poised to become a member of the ABQ city council, say city politics watchers checking in here.

Attorney Robert Aragon, appointed to the state Board of Finance by Gov. Martinez, is the early favorite to replace Dan Lewis in a six way battle for Lewis' west side council seat. Lewis is vacating the post to run for mayor.

Many politicos will recall how Aragon was tossed from his position as a Democratic ward chair for supporting GOP congressional candidate Jon Barela back in '08. He has since hooked up with Martinez and the R's. It would not be a shocker to see Martinez's political action committees supporting him financially. They did exactly that for Robert's wife, Peggy Muller-Aragon, donating $15,000 to her campaign when she won a spot on the ABQ School Board. From that perch she tirelessly carries water for the Fourth and Fifth floors.

Aragon, 59, is a respected attorney who has been in the political game for years. Oldtimers will remember him for getting elected to the state House at the age of 21 and serving three terms beginning in 1979. His father Bennie Aragon was a longtime power player in the House. His sister, Margaret Aragon, was first lady of ABQ when married to former Mayor Martin Chavez. His uncle Mel Aragon was a member of the ABQ city council back in the 70's. His cousin, Manny Aragon, was one of the most powerful state Senate leaders in NM history.

With that political pedigree and his Machine credentials in the GOP leaning seat,  Aragon's foes are going to have their hands full keeping him from capturing a seat on the nine member council.

ARAGON SUBPLOT

A subplot involving Aragon that has been making the rounds may have been put to bed with his council candidacy. That plot had Aragon being appointed State Auditor by the Governor if current Auditor Tim Keller is elected mayor this year. Aragon was the Republican nominee and lost against Keller in 2014. The new subplot has Aragon possibly becoming the chief council critic of Democrat Keller if both men are successful in their campaigns this year.

THE PARTISAN FUTURE

So what's the early take on what the partisan breakdown of the ABQ City Council will be following this fall's election? It's currently controlled by the Dems 5 to 4 and that may not change. Councilors Ken Sanchez, Don Harris, Klarissa Pena and Diane Gibson are all favored for re-election. If they all win and if, as expected, an R replaces Councilor Lewis, we will stay at five to four.

SOARING FUND; SINKING STATE

The bull market in stocks has the Land Grant Permanent School Fund soaring to a value of $15.8 billion at the end of March. But with New Mexico lagging in just about all the major social conditions indicators--poverty, education, crime etc.--the calls continue to invest more of the money directly in the state's people. Dem ABQ State Rep. Javier Martinez, a longtime advocate for a constitutional amendment that would ask voters to tap a portion of the huge fund for very early childhood programs, comes with this reaction to the Permanent Fund closing in on $16 billion:

We're in a moral crisis of historic proportions. This state is bleeding and screaming out in pain. The status quo of the political and business classes has failed us. And now we learn that our land grant fund increased in value (again) and now sits at $15.8 billion, all the while NM's kids continue to suffer unimaginable trauma and neglect. All we're asking for is a 1% investment. We've addressed all of the concerns of the opposition. Rep. Moe Maestas and I have a very strong bill with support from a wide cross-section of New Mexicans from all over the state. House Dems stand ready to lead and send this proposal to the Senate again for its consideration. It's time. No more excuses.

The constitutional amendment has passed the House but for years has been blocked in the Senate by Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith.

TRUMP'S FAVES

One of the Alligators sends this in along with a note saying, "this pretty much confirms that the NM Governor is not a Trump favorite":

President Trump selected seven governors he will appoint to two-year stints on the Council of Governors, according to a White House statement issued Monday evening. Among the three Republicans, three Democrats and one Independent to be nominated are some of Trump's favorite conservatives who he was endorsed by during his campaign or later befriended following the contentious election. Republican Govs. Mary Fallin of Oklahoma; Rick Scott of Florida; and Eric Greitens of Missouri were tapped to sit on the National Governors Association board.

Gov. Martinez refused to endorse the Trump candidacy.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Santa Fe Mayor Javier Gonzales interviews with radio host Ricard Eeds on Tuesday's defeat of the sugar tax he pushed so hard for.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017

Wednesday, May 03, 2017

A Stinging Rebuke For Santa Fe Mayor As Sugar Tax Fizzles, "APO" Comes Into Dem Guv Race, PNM Stock Soars On Rate Increase And New BernCo Dem Chair Says He's Not Too Old  

Well, that ought to stop the talk about a "Governor Gonzales." In a stinging rebuke to Mayor Javier Gonzales, Santa Fe voters turned sour on the proposed sugar tax and in doing so probably ended the chatter of Gonzales pursuing the '18 Dem nomination for Governor. The display of political weakness--even if national money played a big role in the victory--is still a loss of prestige and mayoral power. The measure was going down late Tuesday by a 57% to 43% margin.

The size of the defeat surprised many observers, including us, given Santa Fe's fairly liberal nature. But special elections can often deliver curve balls and Gonzales made a major miscalculation in bringing the Bloomberg-backed tax into his town and losing.

The money raised would have been used for pre-kindergarten programs and the defeat had conservative groups such as the Koch Brothers funded Rio Grande Foundation gloating over the loss, saying it signals NM voters are not really that much in favor of pre-K. But the proposed constitutional amendment that would ask voters to tap a small portion of the nearly $16 billion Land Grant Permanent School Fund for very early childhood education programs would not mean a tax increase and it has overwhelming polling support, according to the ABQ newspaper.

Carolyn Serafin-Abeyta wrote on Facebook:

I'm an educator, and didn't feel this was the best way to fund any form of education. What NM citizens are failing to recognize is that this entire election stems from desperation. The real issue is the fact that certain elected legislators along with this do-nothing governor have neglected the needs of education for far too long...

And Gerald Pacheco reacted to the vote this way:

We have become so self-absorbed that we are trying to tax working families to fund state initiatives and wealthy elite interests. The elite political class in Santa Fe ignored their working class base. If Democrats want to win again, go back to your base.

And then there were the well-compensated Gonzales consultants. Hello, Sandra Wechsler and Eli Lee, this Alligator strike appears meant for you:

This vote is like Trump winning Santa Fe County 60-40%. Any Dem consultant who had their fingerprints on any part of this disaster should never be allowed to work in he state for another 5 to 10 years. But they'll probably be allowed to move on to the next cow that they get to milk.

To the victor go the spoils. To the losers, go the long knives in the back.

APO COMES IN

Jeff Apodaca, 55, made it official Tuesday, launching a 90 second video to introduce himself as a Dem candidate for Governor.

Apodoca is the son of former Dem Guv Jerry Apodaca ('75 -79) but says he won't campaign in his shadow, saying he is not a "legacy" candidate but someone who brings his own skill set to the race as a businessman and wants to turn NM around by increasing investment in local businesses and education.

It didn't take long for the Alligators to strike Apodaca, (welcome aboard, Jeff) singling out his somewhat ambiguous logo, "APO 18." For a candidate needing name ID, they digged, that leaves a lot on the table. One wag scoffed that the symbol looked more fitting for a comic book cover than a Guv run. And another mused: "Is that "APD?"

Fortunately for Apodaca, his smoothly produced video went over better. He appeared knowledgeable and likable. Like his father before him, the camera likes him. One GOP consultant said: "There's a lot of  'I want to win the Hispanic and Catholic vote' in that video."

However, Apodaca looks more comfortable in his citified sport coat than when he does what all Guv candidates eventually do--dons a cowboy hat to cultivate the rural crowd.  Well, as long as he doesn't try to rope a steer on camera, we suppose the state is safe.

(Anti-alcohol abuse candidate Peter Debenedittis of Santa Fe is also running for the Dem nod for Guv but is not expected to be a major player.)

SLOW THE TRAIN

Hey, PNM, your stock price is already trading in record high territory.. Can you slow the rate train down now?

Public Service Co. of New Mexico’s net earnings rose four-fold in the first quarter of 2017, from $4.1 million in the same period last year to $16.5 million this year.The increase largely reflects a 10 percent rate hike for average residential customers that took effect last October. . . The utility is seeking Public Regulation Commission approval for another 14 percent rate hike that would be phased in over two years.

NEVER TOO OLD

New BernCo Dem Party Chair Bill Peifer responds to criticism heard here that the party i tilting too old and too white under his watch:

Your “Alligator” is a bit off base with his comment about me and their analysis of the appointments that I made. I’m 67, not 68. That’s minor, but I make it in the interests of accuracy. Not so minor is the observations about the appointments that I made which include Treasurer and Finance Committee Chair Steve Estrada (obviously a Hispanic) and Co-Chair of the External Relations Committee Ane Romero (36 and Hispanic). 

I made appointments based on my confidence in the individuals to do their jobs well. Naturally, age and experience are somewhat key to being able to judge “past performance” so it’s not terribly surprising that people of somewhat greater age and experience were tapped. As younger people step up they will replace, as quickly as possible, those older people. 

As far as race, I am seriously color blind. I wouldn’t have noticed that Anglos dominated if your “Gator” hadn’t pointed it out. “People of color” are absolutely encouraged to get involved, and when they do they will be integrated into the structure I’m building and move, as their display of dedication warrants, into leadership positions. But the task in front of us is far too important for me to put an inexperienced person in charge of an important committee just because some nay-sayer thinks that the color of one’s skin is more important than experience.

A SERIOUS CUT

A reader writes of the ABQ Public Schools budget controversy:

In 2009 APS received $621 million from the state. For the current year the figure was $620 million. The PED says that is a result of a decline in enrollment. However, I found an inflation calculator online that says $100 in 2009 is equivalent to $113.55 in today’s dollars. $621 million = $705 million in inflation adjusted dollars. That's a serious cut in funding just in accounting for official inflation figures alone and not including teacher pay increases mandated by the tier system.

MY BOTTOM LINES

In a first draft we had the incorrect year for the last time an ABQ mayoral election did not feature an incumbent. The correct year is 1997 when Democrat Jim Baca won. . . And readers continue to weigh in on our blog from last week that called into question the performance of APD Chief Gorden Eden. This reader scoffed at praise given to Eden by Ray Rodgers:

Hello Joe , if Mr. Rogers considers us "lucky to have his experience" what the hell does he consider unlucky? Chief Ray Schultz, Daryl Gates of Los Angeles? I guess Mr.  Rogers has set the bar very low when it comes to law enforcement. Eden's law enforcement expertise is nonexistent. He is a political hack who was forced to remove service hash marks from his sleeve.

It will be a crowded field for the Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Grisham. The latest to file the official paperwork for a run, as expected, is former NM Dem Party Chair Deb Haaland, a native of Laguna Pueblo. . .

The ability for readers to comment below the news stories in the ABQ Journal has been restored after being eliminated recently and drawing criticism. The Journal's Donn Friedman says:

The Journal has restored the Facebook commenting feature to the bottom of stories after looking at options to better serve our readers and customers. Just click on "Load comments" at the bottom of any story to comment or to read the comments. Clicking on Load comments will load the comments box. It may take a few days for this to appear on all new stories.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017

Tuesday, May 02, 2017

Hector And Michelle: Honeymoon On? Plus: Mayor's Race Thins Some But Not Much, And: UNM Economist Defends Susana  

Balderas and Grisham
It looks as though the honeymoon is on. Here's a revealing pic of NM Attorney General Hector Balderas carrying ABQ Dem Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham like a new wife and looking for a threshold to carry her over.

The photo was snapped at this past weekend's Democratic Party Central Committee meeting where attorney and former Santa Fe County Dem Party Chairman Richard Ellenberg was elected in a landslide to become the new state party chair. But the real news is the pressing matter of the '18 Dem gubernatorial contest and whether Balderas will challenge Grisham for the nomination. .

Our very timely pic, delivered promptly by an Alligator, is the latest signal that Balderas will take a walk on the '18 race, choosing to run for re-election as AG. It's a big deal because Grisham has already raised close to $900,000 and credible challengers--other than Balderas--are few and far between.

Insiders report that the pair have been communicating occasionally about the Guv race but this picture intimates that the relationship is now on the verge of blossoming into a political love affair. Spring is in the air, Gators. We'll let you know when the wedding invitations go out.

NOT THAT THIN

The mayoral field has been thinned but not quite as much as observers expected, leaving an already topsy-turvy race even less predictable. Nine candidates--maybe 10 before all the counting is done--collected the required petition signatures to make the October 3 ballot. That's the most since 1993 when voters chose among 11 contenders. Interest is higher than usual in part because the '17 race is the first since 1997  that does not include an incumbent mayor. Republican Richard Berry did not seek a third term and will end his run December 1 when the new mayor is sworn in.

City elections are officially nonpartisan but the voters break along partisan lines. This year both major parties face the prospect of seeing their vote split among multiple hopefuls.

For the Dems State Auditor Tim Keller, former NM Dem Party Chair Brian Colon and ex-BernCo Commissioner Deanna Archuleta are the top three. Keller appears to be leading the grassroots campaign while Colon is the top dog in the money race. The Archuleta candidacy has shown early strength with Dem women voters.

3,000 voter signatures were required to make the ballot. Keller came with over 9,000, the most of any candidate. If he could  translate that into actual voters it would be major boost as about 85,000 to 90,000 voters are expected to turn out for the election. As for fund-raising, Keller qualified for public financing and receives about $380,000 for the campaign. Former GOP BernCo Commissioner, city councilor and state Senator Michael Wiener thinks for now Keller has the pole position:

After 8 years of a Republican mayor and considering the challenges we continue to face, the city will be ready to reverse. Keller is showing the potential to capture first place among the Democrats in a nine way race and that would land him in the run-off election. 

With so many candidates a run-off election is a near certainty. A candidate would need to win 50 percent of the vote to win the race outright. If no one does that, a run-off would be held between the two top- vote-getters a month after the October 3 balloting.

On the Republican side the three major candidates to make the ballot are City Councilor Dan Lewis, BernCo Commissioner Wayne Johnson and businessman Ricardo Chaves who muscled his way into the race by coming with $300,000 in personal campaign cash.

GOP analysts say Lewis has the early edge to lead their party's pack. That's because he has a political base on the Westside which he represents on the council and also has appeal in the conservative far NE Heights where most Republicans votes are cast. He also has been adept in the early fund-raising, although the rate at which he is burning cash could be an issue.

With the GOP vote subjected to so much splitting the prospect of a run-off featuring two Democratic candidates has also begun to float, with the speculators pointing to Keller and Colon as the two most likely in that scenario,

But with nine hopefuls in this race the crystal balls are foggy if not downright muddy. Any number of surprises and plot twists await. Not only is this the most crowded mayoral contest in years, it could be one of the most interesting.

"LAZY ANALYSIS"

Mitchell (Journal)
You have to feel a bit of sympathy for economist Jeff Mitchell, head of the UNM Business and Economic Research division. He's caught between a rock and a hard place. Gov. Martinez has vetoed the state's higher education budget, threatening his livelihood and that of his colleagues and at the same time they are charged with attempting to deliver objective analysis  of the state's dismal economic conditions. How does that play out? Look at these more than charitable quotes from Mitchell after more than six years of Gov. Martinez and see for yourself:

“I do not think  (the economy) is as simple as political leadership or a governor. Their influence on the economy is greatly exaggerated on every level. . . It's “far too lazy of an analysis” to blame one gubernatorial administration or another. Their influence on the economy is greatly exaggerated on every level.”

Well, that ought to keep Jeff's division from the budget axe. But no one with any real knowledge is saying this Governor or any other Governor is entirely responsible for NM's economic woes. Mitchell is giving us a classic straw man argument there.

The reality is that a Governor's policies are pretty darn important to economic outcomes in this state. Just one example: Martinez and (Richardson) cut taxes by hundreds of millions, promising it would attract jobs. It didn't, but for a decade it has comprised the main economic development plan for the state. We took the wrong direction and are paying a mighty price for the mistake. Also, Mitchell contradicts himself when he says:

Decades of under-performance and under-investment in New Mexico’s schools as the economy shifts to knowledge and skill-based jobs may also be coming to a head now, Mitchell said.

Well, that "under-performance and under-investment" is directly related to the policies of the Governor and the Legislature. That is not a "lazy" analysis. It is objective reality.

This is not a time to let state political leaders skate away on arguments that it's really not their fault--no matter how ineffective their polices may be. Now more than ever they need to be held accountable for their actions and we need vigorous debate over the economic future of our state. But we understand that's not the easiest thing to do when you have the Governor dangling a budget sword over your head.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Reader Ray Rodgers writes

Joe I enjoy reading your column but I really disapprove of your depiction of ABQ Police Chief Gorden Eden. I've known the Chief for many of his law enforcement years-- since he was an instructor at the Law Enforcement Academy. I am not a close personal friend but do know him up close having worked with him in numerous state safety strategies and I was fortunate to know his father. He was in law enforcement and I considered him to be a fine man. Anyway, I would appreciate you easing up on Chief Eden. We are lucky to have him and his depth of knowledge. . .

We take a look at the '18 Governor and US Senate race here with Dateline New Mexico and host Tom Trowbridge. The four minute program is here.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's most informed audience? Advertise here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2017
website design by limwebdesign