Somebody get me the thesaurus. I'm thinking blowout, landslide, wipe-out...well, you get the picture. Senator John Kerry ran the table on a crowded field in the first-ever New Mexico presidential caucus last night, and there wasn't even a a consolation prize. It was complete and total dominance by Kerry and helped make the 2004 Democratic Presidential nomination his to lose. It all brings to mind that old x-rated political axiom: "Only a dead girl or a live boy in his bed can stop him now."

The evening started with the Massachusetts senator narrowly carrying the 24,000 early mail-in ballots over Dean and Clark. The major networks did not catch on that this was a major coup for Kerry. Dean was expected to win the absentees because most of that vote was cast before the Kerry momentum from the New Hampshire primary. That early vote did capture some of the Iowa momentum. We called the race right away for Kerry as did pollster Brian Sanderoff on Channel 7, whose Journal poll this week nailed this one to the cross as it showed Kerry winning by a two to one margin. That's just what happened. Here are the numbers, and if you can find life in any of those below Kerry, please call 911 and report it immediately, because I sure don't. Following the numbers my expert roundtable does the political autopsy. Don't miss it.

KERRY--40347--39%, CLARK--19632--19%, DEAN--15660--15%, EDWARDS--10815--10%, KUCINICH--5166--5%, LIEBERMAN--2488--2%, GEPHARDT--671--1%, PENNA--74--0%

SANDEROFF'S SAYINGS

"Turnout is always the big mystery in polling, and turnout for this one was higher than most anticipated. The large turnout helped Kerry win the in-person voting because it brought to the polls more people who were swayed by the media reports of him winning everywhere. 'A more causal voter,' is how Brian put it. What about that vaunted Dean ground operation? "Everyone talks about organization, but it's clear that momentum can overtake any field operation. Also helping turnout was the passion by many Democrats to defeat Bush. It got them to the polls. Electability is the driving issue in this race and Kerry is seen as the most electable." Brian said it appeared Kerry would "get about half" of the 26 delegates at stake last night. But Dean is in danger. "If he falls below 15% in any of the congressional districts, he will get no delegates." Early this morning Dean was clinging to a statewide 15% total, but had dropped below that threshold in the southern district.

Is there anyway Kerry can lose this thing? "Only if the media do a number on him like they did on Dean, and there may not even be enough time for that." Good polling work, Brian

HARRY'S HIGHLIGHTS

Pollster Harry Pavlides called me in the middle of Election Day and told me to expect a turnout of over 100,000 based on calculations he did at two precincts! I thought he was joking, but he wasn't and he nailed it. Early this morning turnout was near 105,000. Ok Harry, you've earned your credentials, but what have you done for me lately?

"These numbers are preliminary, but it appears Kerry won a full 50% of the vote that was cast Election Day. (He only won 27% in the early vote.) Clark got about 17% of the in-person vote, Dean 13% and Edward's 12%." Now, that's definitely good political junkie stuff, Mr. Pollster. What else? "Forty per cent of the vote came out of Bernalillo County; higher than for an normal election. That's where all the candidate organizing kicked in." The low turnout in the south was par for the course, Pavlides said, but he agreed with Sanderoff that it showed none of the candidates excited the conservative east side Dems. "The big suprise to me was Kerry's strength. I expected him to hit 38%, but he went over 40, because these Democrats are as mad as hell and want to take Bush out." What about the future? "Dean is the big loser. His candidacy is over. Edward's is now running for vice-president. It's Kerry's to lose. He has to make a big mistake." We get the message, Harry. Good stuff.

STEVE'S STORY

"Field campaigns are highly-targeted and highly-effective in lower turnout races. This was a relatively high-turnout and was much more like a general election campaign." said veteran field organizer and Green Party operative Steve Cabiedes in a late-night gabfest. "Kerry's media momentum clobbered Dean's field. I was suprised Kerry won the south. It's because more of the voters there were not contacted by the field operatives. They voted off of the media and it showed." What about Dean, Steve? "One has to wonder if there is a glass ceiling at 20% of the vote for him. That's where he seems to be stuck everywhere."

What else? "The Democrats are energized right now, but as Kerry becomes inevitable that enthusiasm will diminish and they will have to build it all over again for November." Kucinich came in with 5% of the vote, his best anywhere so far and Steve attributed it to Green party operatives. "He got the cream of the crop and they helped him organize some Dems." As for second place Clark: "He didn't embarrass himself." And, finally Steve, is it over? "One last round this weekend, and then it's over," he offered as he went back to his numbers crunching.

BRUCE'S BROMIDES

Being 2,000 miles away in Washington D.C. didn't stop veteran NM Republican Party player Bruce Donisthorpe from throwing some long-distance cold water on the Dems party at the La Posada in downtown ABQ. "The turnout was very, very low in the south. That means the conservative Democrats did not come out and they plan to vote for Bush. I know the Dems are all happy about what they consider a big turnout, but I don't think it was a big deal. If they had turned out 30% of the vote we would be worried, but the 20% turnout means it was the same liberal activists coming out." Dr. Dean was mortally wounded, said Bruce. "A damaging night for the doctor." While happy with the low turnout in the conservative areas, Bruce did not have blinders on. "The Dems have us beat 1.7 to one in party registration so the race will be close." Any advice for the President's operatives? "Hit the library and look under Kerry, fellas. He's got a 21 year liberal record." And how about a GOP message for the big winner? "Sure, see you in November, Senator," declared The Bruce as he retired into the early morning East coast hours.

A FINAL TAKE

Some thought I jumped the gun a week ago when I said the race for the Dem nomination was effectively over (see below). Last night served to cement my views. But I do agree with the observation that while the caucus was a success for the Democratic Party, no new voting patterns emerged that directly threaten Bush anew.

One of the big winners was Big Bill. The Guv scored a TV trifecta for the first time in his governorship last night, appearing live simultaneously on all three ABQ network affiliates to announce the absentee vote. And he also was on every imaginable cable outfit. True, it was good PR for him, but in this case it was also good PR for our state.

Thanks to my expert roundtable for their help over these past few weeks in keeping me on top of things Presidential. And thanks to all of you for giving us a record number of "hits" to this web site. To all of my new readers I want to say welcome. Stay with us, there's more fun to come.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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