State Rep. Roberts
The Republican Civil War continues. Longtime SE NM GOP State Rep. Earlene Roberts has incurred the wrath of Roswell State Sen. "Lightning Rod" Adair and the Dendahlite faction of the GOP and, sources report, as a result the race could tighten. Roberts has had a free ride for years, but this time around the Dendahlites are going for the kill of one of their major foes in the State House. Here is my exclusive report from a deep insider close to the action.

"The race is between Earlene Roberts and Keith Gardner. Adair sent out a letter attacking Roberts for voting for the "ignition interlock" systems that would cost New Mexican's tons of money.

Roberts is responding in a mailer saying Adair is making something out of nothing since the law never passed. Robert's has been focusing on the money she has brought to the district and her opposition to gay marriage. Senate Minority Leader Stuart Ingle has endorsed Roberts, which gives her Roosevelt County. Since the district has changed and moved Earlene over into Chaves County more, the race could be closer than some had envisioned.

Gardner did not raise much money, and he is hitting this last week hard with support from Adair. Roberts should still win, but the last ditch effort from Gardner could make it close."

While the focus has been on the three candidates the Barnett-Denahl faction is fielding in the Albuquerque area, taking the Roberts seat would be a major feather in the cap of the break away faction. However, Roberts beat the same opponent two years ago.

Thanks to our Southeast insider. We will defintely watch this one when we call the election on KANW 89.1 FM in ABQ starting at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday night.

MICKEY'S WRIST-SLAP

Meanwhile, back here in the big city, insiders say new GOP Chair Allen Weh called together his new GOP executive committee Saturday and sternly warned that he would not tolerate Republicans fielding primary opponents against each other. He is said to have looked directly at Republican National Committeeman and lawyer-lobbyist Barnett when he made the statement. But talk and action are two different things. For all intents and purposes a political party is being run out of Barnett's law offices as well as Adair's. Weh and no other Republican officials are apparently able or willing to stop it.

NM'S GENDER GAP

That Zogby interactive poll of New Mexico (see below) also has startling evidence of the gender gap here between Kerry and Bush. Among men the Prez garners 55% of the vote, but only 32% of the females. Kerry gets a whopping 62% of the women, but falls to 35% of the men.

Here's pollster Zogby's analysis of the Prez race here with Kerry leading by about five points:

"While President Bush predictably lags here in the state’s big cities, the good news for his re-election campaign is that there aren’t many of them. Instead, this southwestern state shoehorned between the vacation mecca of Arizona and the president’s home state of Texas is dotted with small towns and rural life, which treat him better, the poll shows. While Democrat John Kerry leads in the big cities, 54% to 33%, Mr. Bush leads in small cities, 50% to 45%, and by an even greater margin, 56% to 40%, in rural New Mexico."

Again, thanks to my inside sources for forwarding this exclusive polling info. We'll keep you posted on the very latest polls

MILES TO GO BEFORE THEY MEET

Apparently the race between Miles Nelson and Richard Romero for the Democratic nomination for the ABQ Congressional seat has gone personal. KKOB-AM radio talk host Richard Eeds reports the two men were so upset with each other on his Saturday program that they continued their fighting during the commercial breaks. Democratic insiders are pulling back their predictions that Richard will landslide Nelson. If that's the case, Romero may need the support of Nelson, an emergency room doctor, if he is to beat Rep. Heather Wilson. Sounds like they will need some therapy before that happens.

Join me Thursday at 5 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM for our Election Night pre-game show when my top experts review the key races and make predictions. Our Election Night coverage on KANW starts at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday night.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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