Friday, February 27, 2004

Nelson Martinez: How's He Doing? We Have the Inside TV Scoop, Plus: Gay GOP Group Forms In NM 


He arrived back on New Mexico's TV screens in January to great fanfare and with high hopes for KOB-TV's ratings. So how is veteran anchorman Nelson Martinez doing after a month of anchoring the NBC affiliates noon and 5 p.m. newscasts? Not too shabby, if the latest ratings are accurate. TV insiders tell "NM Politics With Joe Monahan" that Nelson "started off flat" his first couple of weeks but lately "has spiked KOB's noon & 5 p.m. ratings a bit." February is one of several crucial "sweeps" months when stations fight for big audiences so they can command healthy advertising rates. Martinez was hired by KOB after years on the anchor desk at KOAT, in part, to boost viewing in Hispanic households where he has a strong following. Nelson's hiring, we are told by insiders, rocked the boat a bit at KOB, but in TV good ratings rule, and if he continues to score you will continue to see Nelson on a tube near you.

And there's more action to report in TV ratings land. According to our sources, the big surprise so far this month has been the rise of KRQE-TV 13 in the 10 p.m. ratings. The CBS affiliate is now a close second to number one KOB with KOAT-TV, the ABC affiliate, coming in third at 10. But there are some big 'ifs' here. These ratings are the "overnights" and do not reflect the "Super Millionaire" series that ABC is now hyping. The insiders say that should give a late boost to 7 at 10 p.m. Also, my TV experts say Channel 13 "continues to skew older" winning an audience that is not "quite as attractive" to advertisers as the other two combatants.

It does appear Channel 13 is getting its money's worth out of Larry Barker, who jumped the KOAT ship to join his old cohort Dick Knipfing who co-anchors late night with Erika Ruiz. Barker is bringing back hallway chases and shouted questions to his investigative reports. He's being challenged in court by one of his subjects generating publicity for the station statewide. Larry's lawyer points out that he is not being challenged on the content of his investigative report. Maybe all the commotion is helping out the news ratings there. We shall see.

THE GOP'S GAY BRIGADE

A couple of prominent GOP political insiders have signed up with the gay and lesbian Log Cabin group and are forming a chapter of the national organization in NM. Patrick Killen, political director for the John Sanchez 02' Guv campaign and a two-time campaign manager for former state GOP Chair John Dendahl, and Troy Benavidez, a onetime aide to Senator Domenici, are among the chapter's first members here.

Killen, 24, stresses that the group supports President Bush and his policies, but part ways with him on the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. They think that matter should be left to the states. The Log Cabin Republicans formed in California in the 1970's and has spread nationally. They work to "support a more inclusive Republican Party." The latest national polling shows young voters overwhelmingly opposed to the anti-marriage amendment, but support is higher among older voters. The group gets its name from Abe Lincoln and his birth in a log Cabin and his support of civil rights.

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Thursday, February 26, 2004

NM Gays In The Political Spotlight; Some History Of Sex In Our Cities, And: Mayoral Run-off's: Take Three! 

NM's gay residents are front and center this month with Sandoval County Clerk Victoria Dunlap stunning the nation when she issued marriage licenses for same sex couples. The resulting controversy played a part in President Bush's call for a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in the U.S. and has prompted reflection on the role of gays in the Land of Enchantment's political system.

It turns out that role is sparse, at least on the public record. As far as we can determine only one openly gay individual has been elected to prominent state office here; Liz Stefanics who served one four year term in the state senate in the 1990's and was defeated for re-election by Phil Griego. Her sexuality was never a blatant issue on the campaign trail, but it played a role among some socially conservative voters in the Northern NM district. While openly gay elected officials are a rarity, many gays toil at lower levels of NM government as was seen when some applied for the aforementioned marriage licenses.

The Santa Fe New Mexican's Steve Terrell points out that the northern congressional district has one of the highest percentage of same sex couples (mostly in Santa Fe) in the nation. But Bush's anti-marriage amendment is aimed squarely at voters on the state's east side, what old time politicos refer to as "Little Texas." There, socially conservative voters overwhelmingly reject gay marriage and civil unions. Congressman Steve Pearce, who represents the area, offered the strongest support for the amendment among the state's congressional delegation. But most high elected NM officials (Big Bill, Mayor Marty) are on the record as strong supporters of gay rights, but not gay marriage. Big Bill has appointed the first openly gay cabinet secretary in history and former Senator Stefanics is now a deputy secretary in the state Human Services Department.

SEX IN OUR CITIES

Sen. Cutting
Students of NM history will recall with me the gay rumors that followed NM U.S. Senator Bronson Cutting through his political career and which are still debated by today's historians. Republican Cutting served the state in the 1930's. But sex "scandals" in NM history have been exclusively of the heterosexual variety. Perhaps the most famous was the late 1940's murder of Dona Ana County waitress Cricket Coogler. The investigation involved several prominent elected officials suspected of having relationships with the young lady, but the murder went unsolved.

In an interesting twist on all this, many Hispanics are among the socially conservative electorate who oppose gay marriage and civil unions, But the top elected Hispanic officials in the state have taken the opposite tack, perhaps influenced by the civil rights struggles of Hispanics. The Blog bottom line: Covering NM politics is like covering three different states. The issue of gay rights adheres to that age-old formula.

THE RUN-OFF RUN AROUND IS FINALLY SETTLED (I HOPE)

First, I reported that there would be no mayoral run-off elections in NM in 2005. I took that post down pretty quick when top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland chimed in that a constitutional amendment will be on the ballot this year that would restore run-off's in ABQ and permit them in other NM cities. Now, Charlie Young, attorney, lobbyist and veteran politico gets the final word.

Scott was right that there will be a vote in November. Charlie adds that because ABQ would be returning to the run-off system it would be REQUIRED to conduct such elections between the two top finishers for mayor or council seats. However, municipalities that have not previously had run-off provisions would have the OPTION of holding run-off's. That means if voters approve the amendment ABQ would have run-off elections next year. Under the old ABQ system a candidate had to get 40 percent of the vote to avoid a run-off. I am assuming that will be the case if run-off's are reinstated. Of course, with the trouble this story has given me, I probably should assume nothing. Thanks Charlie for being our on-the-ball, pro bono Blog lawyer.

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Wednesday, February 25, 2004

Linda Lopez: Could She Lead The Senate? Manny: Inching towards the Exits? And: Dust-Up In Carlsbad As Sen. Kidd Quits; Race On 

The Capitol is now as quiet as a falling snowflake, but the political buzz is already building over what happens when the state senate reconvenes next winter. Insiders are wondering if the coalition of Republicans and Dems that made Richard Romero President Pro Tem can continue and who, if anyone, will keep the hybrid arrangement in place. At the top of the list, is ABQ Sen. Linda Lopez, who doubles as chair of the Bernalillo County Democratic Party. She is not a friend of Big Bill's, splitting with him on key legislation such as the food tax repeal. All this, my insiders say, as she prepares to round up the votes to replace Romero.

One lawmaker told me: "If (Senate Republican Leader Stuart) Ingle is smart he will do the deal with Linda." He points to her independent streak and her abandonment of Manny Aragon when he needed her vote to stay as pro tem, only to fall to Romero.

There are many other names circulating for the Pro Tem job. But I have highlighted Lopez because she is the one Democrat it seems the R's could accept. They like her because she has stood up to Big Bill publicly. In fact, she has been tougher on him than many of the R's. The Senate is not brimming with impressive pro tem candidates. It could come down to who wants it the most. So far, the insiders say, that's the maverick Linda Lopez. But the alligators in the ABQ Valley are lying in wait for Linda. She apparently will have a Dem primary opponent which she should easily overcome. But as her campaign for senate power picks up speed, look for the allies of Manny & Big Bill to turn up the heat.

READING THE MANNY TEA LEAVES

Speaking of Manny, one of my sources at the Roundhouse thinks he is giving more signs of getting ready to hit the exits. "It was overlooked, but at the end of the session the senate had a nice little ceremony praising Manny just like the one they had for Richard Romero, who is retiring. Manny also did not fight Bill one iota, even giving him support on the food tax repeal which he has opposed for decades," declared our deep insider. Our source thinks this spells continued lobbying by Manny for the presidency of NM Highlands University. He could be right. But we might point out that Manny gets praised at the end of almost every session by colleagues hoping to curry favor with the legislative powerhouse for the next session. Still, it's an open secret now that Manny wants that big plum of a job.

DUST-UP IN CARLSBAD

SEN. KIDD
We've got a great race shaping up for the state senate down in Carlsbad. The GOP's Don Kidd is giving up his seat after three terms and two Dems and three R's are now vying to replace Kidd, a high-school dropout who went on to become president of the major bank in Carlsbad, a president of the NM State University Board of Regents and a salt-of-the-earth legislator who won respect from both sides of the aisle. But the 66 year old says it's time to step aside. In my conversation with the retiring senator, Kidd did not explicitly endorse anyone but he spoke very highly of the GOP's Mark Schinnerer, who is an administrator at the Lakeview Christian Nursing Home and was introducing himself in Santa Fe during the session.

The Kidd district is Eddy and Otero counties. It's almost evenly divided between the D's and the R's, and Kidd says it is a true swing district. "It still leans Republican, but the candidate will have to work it hard." Eddy County Commissioner Lucky Briggs and Vernon Asbill, a retired Carlsbad school superintendent, are the other R's vying for the seat. The Dems are Jeff Diamond, a local attorney and city councilman and Steve West, a school teacher and chair of the Eddy County Demo Party.

The Carlsbad Current-Argus takes an in-depth look at Kidd's political career.

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Tuesday, February 24, 2004

Nader Takes On Big Bill; Clash Of Egos Goes National, What Will Ralph Do Here? And My Confusion Over Mayoral Run-Off's 

Ralph Nader wasted no time in striking back against Governor Bill who accuses the independent Prez candidate of running because of his "ego." But Nader, widely blamed by the Dems for throwing the Prez race to Bush in 00', lashed back with a fury in an appearance on CNN late Monday when asked about Richardson's ego statement. "That's because they have no other argument. You see, that's name-calling, like Governor Bill Richardson, who is a chronic speedster in his car as governor. He violates speed laws. He's probably a little irritated that I pointed that out," snapped Nader.

Consumer and safety advocate Nader took after Bill when it was disclosed last year that the Guv was traveling NM's highways at an alarming 110 mph. Now, Nader says Bill is paying him back. This is Ralph's third Prez bid and the Dems are in a tizzy believing he could again cost them the White House which Nader says is "corporate occupied" territory. The big question now is whether Nader can get the 18,000 petition signatures he needs by September 7 to get on the NM ballot. Steve Cabiedes, a petition collection specialist and longtime Green Party member, says Nader "has plenty of time" and "will get help from some Greens" insuring he will make the cut.

Unanswered questions include whether Republicans will help Nader make the ballot here and elsewhere and whether Dems will put up a fight by challenging Nader's petition signatures.

Nader's run complicates things for the Greens, under whose banner Nader ran four years ago when he garnered four percent of the NM vote which Al Gore ultimately won by just over 350 votes. The Greens have David Cobb running this time, which means New Mexicans are likely to see two liberal alternatives on their ballots. Cobb needs to get five per cent of the vote here if the Greens are to retain their "major party" status. That grows increasingly unlikely with Nader vying for the same votes as Cobb. Notable NM Green Carol Miller is one you can expect carrying the Nader banner here, despite it's possible harm to her party's own contender. She has been a longtime Nader supporter.

One top level NM Dem strategist emails in with more analysis: "Ralph's candidacy is a dagger in the Green heart. And that's not just a New Mexico phenomena. Undoubtedly, Green Party ballot status will be jeopardized in other states as well. Moreover, their ability to meet the threshold for federal matching funds goes out the window for the next cycle too."

Cabiedes puts Nader's base vote in NM at 2 percent, or about 10,000 votes. Nader picked up 21,000 ballots in NM in 2000. But it's Nader's impact on the Dems and their hopes of unseating Bush that remains the big issue. And Big Bill's personal tongue-lashing of the new Prez hopeful might only harden his position on staying in the race until the bitter end. Folks at home may quiver when Big Bill speaks, but it's different on the national level where guys like Nader have been playing this game for 40 years and are more than willing to return fire and then some.

MAYORAL RUN-OFF'S COULD COME BACK

Well, our accuracy record is pretty solid here, but once in a while we drop the ball. And that's what we did today when our early morning readers read our item saying municipal run-off elections would not be brought back to NM anytime soon. Top New Mexico lobbyist Scott Scanland was quick to notice and reports that a constitutional amendment allowing cities, such as ABQ, to conduct run-off's between the two top finishers for mayor and council will indeed be on the November ballot for voters to decide. Scott says the amendment, if passed, would give city councils around NM the option of going to the run-off system. If passed by voters and approved by the city council, the 2005 ABQ mayoral election would feature a run-off. Under the old system that was struck down, a candidate would have to get 40 percent of the vote to avoid a run-off election. It will be up to each municipality to decide what the threshold will be for an outright winner. Suffice it to say there are a lot of angles to this one, and we apologize for our earlier erroneous report.

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Monday, February 23, 2004

Famous NM County Clerk Wants Back In, Scrapping Begins Over Romero Senate Seat, And: In Defense Of Big Bill: He's NOT Like Gary 

Judy Woodward
She may be well into her 70's and owner of a controversial public record, but that apparently isn’t stopping former Bernalillo County Clerk Judy Woodward from running yet another campaign. She's telling friends that she's looking at the Bernalillo County Commission seat being vacated by Tom Rutherford. Judy's name became known far and wide in the 90's when election mishap after election mishap piled up during her eight year tenure. Despite problems counting the votes in her first term, she was handily re-elected in 96’, only to preside over another set of vote tallying problems in 2000 when computer snafus and missing ballots delayed the final vote count for days. Because the Prez race was so close Woodward and then county elections bureau chief Robert Lucero found themselves featured in the national media. (Robert is now an elected member of the ABQ School Board).

If Judy does seek the June 1 Democratic nomination for the commission seat she will join flood board member Danny Hernandez and Deanna Archuleta-Loesser, a UNM sociology instructor, who has signed up Eli Lee's liberal consulting group Soltari. Bianca Ortiz-Wertheim was also being mentioned as another possible for the Rutherford seat, but she took a job with Big Bill and will not make the race. Woodward has over three decades of service to the Dem Party but this campaign would surely be a tough test. Hernandez is concerned that he and Loesser could divide up the liberal vote in the SE Heights district, and he is redoubling his efforts.

FIRST PUNCH THROWN TO REPLACE ROMERO

Meanwhile, another Dem Party old timer who is also trying to get back in the game, Adele Baca-Hundley, is already drawing fire from opponent Jerry Ortiz y Pino. Hundley and Pino are squaring off for the Dem nomination for the Downtown/Barelas state senate seat being vacated by Richard Romero. In an indirect slap at Hundley, Pino says in his campaign lit that "he isn't just another recycled politician." Baca-Hundley is a former state legislator and ABQ city councilor who, like Woodward, counts over three decades of political involvement. Ortiz y Pino, A Santa Fe native and former department director for ex-ABQ Mayor Baca, also had a short-lived stint in state government under Big Bill. He is unabashedly liberal. Attorney Reggie Garcia, a friend of former House Speaker Sanchez, has also been gathering petition signatures for the seat. And there are rumblings of another well-know Dem contender getting in the fight, but nothing firm yet.

Meanwhile, Romero, coming off a solid performance in his final legislative session, is also using Eli Lee's liberal Soltari group to help him sew up the Dem nomination for the right to take on Congresswoman Heather in the General Election. He will debate his two opponents, Dr. Miles Nelson and former DEA agent Eli Chavez, at the TV-I Montoya campus tonight.

THEY WRITE: "BILL IS NO GARY."

Last week I wrote (see Feb. 20) that there were similarities in the governing styles of Big Bill and former Guv Gary. I received several comments, including one from my occasional and anonymous insider commentator, "N.E. Mann." Here’s his entertaining summary.

"Eight years of Gary fighting wars created an interesting situation. The legislative work ethic went to hell. Legislators went thru the motions, but likely as not, hard work got vetoed. So, like kids, they found themselves with down time while mom and dad fought.

Now, with a new sheriff in town, it's time to go back to work and - whoa! - we're out of shape! And there will be a certain amount of mumbling and chaos while everyone starts getting after the gridlock flab. Meantime, Bill is running around like Richard Simmons on speed making them nuts by demanding that things get done. This will pass and all will be well.

Meanwhile, we have grownups who chose the political life acting shocked - yes, shocked - that the governor hollers at them instead of holding hands. It's enough that there is no law against legislators' relatives being paid lobbyists, but to cry, "he was mean to us" when a full-grown governor takes strong exception is a bit much. That's part of the deal. Near as I can tell, grown ups argue. They're supposed to draw the line at hitting each other.

Being shocked at being hollered at and that a session finds people in adversarial positions is akin to being shocked that rock stars like attention, that fraternity guys know what beer is and that movie writers prefer violence to philosophical exploration."

Thanks for the witty insight, Mr. Mann. Maybe we can set up a wrestling match between Bengie Regensberg and Big Bill to settle this thing once and for all.

Meanwhile, I welcome reader comments and story tips, anonymous and otherwise, so keep em' coming.

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Friday, February 20, 2004

They're Done, Now They Run, Our Session Wrap; Rep. Martinez Implodes, And: Godbey's Goodbye 

One thing became clear as a result of the just concluded hyperactive session of the NM Legislature: New Mexicans have a governor who is a lot like the one they replaced. "What?" you say. "Big Bill like Governor Gary?" Yup. It was Gary who constantly threatened the lawmakers with his veto pen and now it's Big Bill threatening them if they don't pass bills. Both headstrong men eventually prevailed; Johnson by issuing a record number of vetoes; Big Bill by winning, if not record amounts of legislation, certainly many sweeping measures. Ironically, Bill has a reputation as a suave international negotiator, but to get his way with the Legislature he does not negotiate very much. He seems more akin to some of those foreign strongmen he has sugar-talked in years past. Given his negotiating background everyone expected he would be a consensus Guv. But it turns out that Gary's "my way or the highway' philosophy matches perfectly the current chief exec. It wore thin for Gary after eight years, and after three sessions Bill also may be reaching the limits.

The Republicans, seemingly on Sominex for most of the 30 days, turned up the volume the last few, and seem to have muddied the waters enough to deny the Guv any upswing in his polling numbers. His hard-fought battle over the food tax had the R's in full battle cry, winning enough coverage to raise doubts and unite rank and file GOP voters. They can credit Sen. "Lightning Rod" Adair and his sidekick, Rep. Dan Foley, for giving the wake-up call. The bedrock conservatives were out on the limb by themselves all session long until the moderate wing finally picked up the drumbeat. Because of the disorganized way the GOP conducted itself speculation about leadership changes, particularly in the House, is in full swing.

YEAR OF THE THREATS

This will be remembered as anything but "The Year of the Legislature" as Big Bill touted it in his state-of-the-state speech. This was raw executive power being exercised. He threw lobbyists out of his office, threatened a special session, and according to the R's, threatened members of his own party with the withholding of "pork" money for their districts. His not so secret weapon was the election. All 112 lawmakers are up this year. No one wanted to risk too much wrath from the Big Fella, who does not have to face voters and who has the war chest to make their bids more difficult.

Thus, the Guv used up a lot of his political capital to win the day. Gary Johnson did that too, but he did not care about advancing to higher office. In this modern era, the Legislature is easily outgunned by a Guv determined to dominate them via the media. But the decision to throw consensus-building out the window often has a long-term price, and the betting in this corner is that Big Bill may have seen his best days with the Legislature. To his credit, he has gotten mostly everything he wanted so it will be the impact of those measures and whether they start pulling NM out of the 50th in everything rankings, rather than future legislative sessions, that will likely define his success. Like a good basketball team, the Legislature will eventually find out how to work the ball around him. There were signs of that this session. Next time they could be ready for the big leagues.

THE IMPLOSION OF KEN MARTINEZ

Dem State Rep. Ken Martinez of Grants pulled off the political equivalent of Howard Dean's scream this legislative session. And, like Dean, it could haunt him the rest of his political career. Martinez, son of the legendary lawmaker Walter Martinez, was the godfather of the ill-fated ignition interlock bill which would require every car in NM to have a device installed to make sure no one drove drunk. It was one of the biggest political blunders and legislative overreaches seen in New Mexico history.

Martinez was scorned from Cruces to the Colorado line. When it was widely reported that he was a trial lawyer, the derision grew even more fierce as he was accused of using the bill as a smokescreen to avoid true DWI reform. It was a mighty fall for Martinez, who has been touted as a possible future speaker of the house. In days of yore, when these legislative movidas were conducted in a much lower-key atmosphere, he could have limited the damage, but in the hypermedia age you can get scorched alive before you even realize you lit the match. Martinez may survive all right in his hometown, but his political blunder will forever be an obstacle to overcome if he chooses to advance up the political ladder. And to think he's going to introduce it again! Does he have a death wish?

GODBEY'S GOODBYE

The GOP's Seth Heath reports from the Roundhouse that lawmakers were suprised when State Rep. Ron Godbey of ABQ's East Mountain area rose at the end of the session Thursday and announced that due to his wife's ill health he will not seek re-election this year. We reported on the primary challenge Godbey was to receive from Mario Burgos, who lives down the street from Godbey and is associated with the forces of former state GOP chair John Dendahl. Godbey fought bitterly with Dendahl over the years and will try to hand off the seat to Kathy McCoy, a neighborhood activist who has worked for Godbey at the legislature. But his withdrawal could attract a few other contenders as well. We'll keep you posted.

FINAL TAKE

Join me on 770 KKOB-AM Radio Saturday at noon with host Greg Payne for more on the lively legislative session.

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Thursday, February 19, 2004

Pete's Monument To Pete, NM Indian Gambling: Nice TV Spots, But What's Reality?  

How does the Pete V. Domenici Federal Courthouse sound? Well, you better get used to it because sources in Washington sent us the language authorizing the naming of the building for Pete contained in a recent massive appropriations bill signed into law by the Prez. Here is the one line that will take Pete into posterity. "SEC. 160. (a) DESIGNATION- The United States courthouse located at 333 Lomas Blvd. N.W. in Albuquerque, New Mexico, shall be known and designated as the `Pete V. Domenici United States Courthouse"

Now this has not been without controversy. A few months ago, when word circulated that Domenici was angling to get the building named after himself, friends of former NM Governor and federal judge Ed Mechem said Ed should get the honor first. After all, they argued, he's already gone, and naming a building after a living person is not the norm. Domenici, who is serving his last term, has not said whether he actually authored the language naming the building for himself, but even his friends like to say Pete is not a guy to underestimate his own abilities. However, since his efforts to pass an energy bill flopped, wags in New Mexico have been calling him "Senator Diminishi." Maybe his name on that nice courthouse will soften such blows coming from the political briar patch Pete has inhabited these many years.

HEIDI'S BRIEF HIATUS

Speaking of Pete & Co., Heidi Fuller, one of his longtime fundraisers, is still apparently on the job. She just sent an e mail under Pete's name soliciting volunteers for the Prez's campaign. Heidi got in the Republican intraparty feud when it was disclosed on this site that she had lost a fundraising contract for the R's when Ramsay Gorham took over as party chair from John Dendahl. Pete was unhappy about that and it's been one of the problems in uniting the party. Maybe Heidi is an example of how the party will eventually unite: everyone gets at least a little piece of the huge election pie being baked by the Bush campaign. I know, you thought it was all about the issues.

INDIAN GAMBLING: A GOOD BET?

Those are pretty slick black and white TV spots you've been seeing touting the benefits of Indian gambling in NM, but where are the facts and figures to show that the state-sanctioned monopoly gambling has made improvements in the living standards of our state's pueblo residents? Despite Indian gambling generating over $14 billion a year in revenue nationally (half a billion here), The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that the rate of poverty among Native American's in 2002 was 25%, compared to a national rate of 13%. The unemployment rate for Indians in 2002 was 12.3%, compared to 5.8% overall. Suicide, alcoholism and infant mortality rates for Indians remains way above the general population. Maybe Indian gambling, as we were promised in the 1990's, has made a dent in these stats in our state. But if it has the tribes are not bragging about it in their feel-good TV ads.

IT'S BETTER THE SECOND TIME AROUND

And more from the TV front. Have you seen those NM Health Care Association TV ads that praise Big Bill and the Legislature for working out a compromise on the Medicaid issue? Just a week ago, the association was running ads attacking the Guv and his 'bed tax' and it prompted the Big Guy to throw healthcare lobbyists out of his office and threaten an audit to see if any Medicaid funds were used for the ads. Under a compromise, he demanded these new ads that praise him. do you think the Guv will ask for an audit to see if Medicaid funds were used for them? Don't hold your breath.

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Wednesday, February 18, 2004

GOP Showdown Brewing: Bradley to Seek Barnett's Committeeman Post, The Santa Fe Whirlwind: Why? And: The Maloof's Under The Scope 

Bradley
The moderate wing of the state Republican Party is pinning its hopes on former Light Guv Walter Bradley who told me Tuesday he will challenge NM GOP National Committeeman Mickey Barnett for the position at the GOP state convention in June. Bradley, who toyed with the idea of running for the Public Regulation Commission but decided against it, said he is '"fully committed" to taking on Barnett because "I want the job." Bradley, now an assistant state land commissioner, says the race might not turn out to be a showdown between him and Mickey. "I talked to him (Barnett) a couple of months ago and he said he was tired. But I am in the race regardless of what Mickey does."

Mickey may be tired of being Committeeman but it has not stopped him and other allies of former GOP chair Dendahl from fielding candidates against moderate Republicans in the June 1 primary. And that, his detractors say, could be his undoing. Said one high-level Republican: "This fielding of opponents by Mickey has Republicans upset. It really is a loyalty issue and I think it could cost him support."

The unpaid national committeeman serves as the liaison with the Republican National Committee (RNC) and would work closely with the President's re-election committee. Barnett and Dendahl have been at odds with current GOP Chair Gorham over what role the state party will play for the Prez, and the Gorham supporters think Bradley in the committeeman post just might put the party back on her track. Gorham is need of a win over the Dendahl forces to assert her primacy. If Barnett backed out of the race and Bradley won that might deprive her of a big win, but she could still claim she is making progress in asserting control. Meanwhile, those conservative primary challengers to incumbent legislators are not going away. If any of them win their primaries the June GOP convention could be a real bruiser.

DATELINE SANTA FE

Romero
It was left to State Senate President Pro Tem Richard Romero last night to inject a note of sanity into the even more frenzied than usual closing hours of the Legislature. The ABQ Democrat calmly fielded questions on Big Bill's threat to call the lawmakers into a Special Session if he did not get what he wanted. Romero quietly noted that the major business of this, and any other 30 day session, is to pass a budget. "We will get a budget, and if we have time for a few more bills that would be nice,' said Romero who is leaving the Roundhouse to run against GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson for a second time. But Romero also told KOB-TV's Neil Simon that perhaps a Special would at least give the politicos a chance to slow down and give the remaining legislation the consideration it deserves.

Romero hit the proverbial nail on the head. There is simply too much on the table for a thirty day session. As Romero points out, that's why we have 60 day sessions every other year. The Guv needs a Special because he 'flooded the zone' with so much stuff and wants it all. Makes you wonder if he plans to be around for any of those future sixty day sessions.

THE MEDIA IS TIRED TOO

Pity the poor reporters who have to cover the hyperactivity at the Capitol. One newspaper reported that the capital outlay funds, commonly known as "pork" would henceforth be divided 50-50 between the Guv and the Legislature. Another newspaper reports nothing has changed; that the pork will be divided in thirds--between the house, senate and Guv--as it always has been. What's the truth? "Nothing significant has changed," is the word from my well-informed sources. Legislators hung on to their cut. But it was one of a hundred items getting the Fourth Floor spin at yet another 'news conference' where reporters on deadline fight to make sense of it all.

RYAN'S WORLD

Former state GOP ex. director John Ryan has been in the blog news because of speculation that he might take on state GOP Chair Ramsay Gorham for her senate seat. But Ryan emails to say he wants to quiet the speculation and has no plans to challenge Ramsay, who he met with recently. He told her he would only run if she did not. Ramsay is in, so apparently Ryan, appointed to his old job by John Dendahl, is out--for now.

ALL THE MALOOF'S THAT'S FIT TO PRINT

If you have been around NM politics any time at all, you know about the billionaire Maloof family and their roots in New Mexico. The family is now expanding its business empire and the New York Times Magazine (registration required) does a full-blown feature on the famous clan that contains information even seasoned veterans may not be aware of. Check it out.

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? Email me or call 505-243-4059 for details.

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Tuesday, February 17, 2004

Regensberg: The Fight's Just Begun, Burpo Plots Comeback, Rubber Chicken With Cheney, Lightning Rod: He's Got The Guv's Numbers, And: The Blog At UNM 

First, let me thank State Rep. Bengie Regensberg for bringing the New Mexico Legislature back to its roots with his wild night of fisticuffs with the State Police who were ordered by the House Speaker to track him down and bring him back to the capitol for a health care vote. As you may have heard, all hell broke loose when the lawmen got into a fight with a Regensberg reluctant to be returned. It ended with the cops putting the rebelling Rep in a headlock.

We New Mexicans cherish our role in the Wild West, and 21st century or not, we're not about to completely let go. The Roundhouse has become too darn businesslike in this politically correct era, but a few characters like Bengie are still around to remind us that NM politics is still a rough sport. Remember the fights at the old Bullring? The comely female 'lobbyists" now vanished? Why, some of these guys even have their families living up in Santa Fe during the session. It's political sacrilege! But just in time Battling Bengie emerges and restores the old image of our fair Legislature as a place of overwhelming machismo; where three fingers of Jack Daniels is the drink of choice, and where the answering machines at the apartments say: "Honey, I'll be working late again."

Well, those were the days. We thought they'd never end. But they did. If only for a moment, Bengie had the hearts of the oldtimers fluttering anew. So Bengie, thanks for the trip through nostalgia. Heck, that state police budget just might be a trimmed a notch in memory of your efforts to bring back those 'glorious' days of yore.

BENGIE TO GET HECTORED

But Bengie's fight has just begun. "New Mexico Politics With Joe Monahan" has the exclusive news that Battling Bengie will have a Democratic primary opponent come June 1. He's 30 year old attorney Hector Balderas. Hector has served as an assistant district attorney in Bernalillo County and now hangs his shingle in the Las Vegas area district he hopes to take away from Regensberg. But it may not be easy. Benjie is already claiming Big Bill is the cause of his problems and was behind the state police incident. The Guv's office dismisses all that as nonsense, but Bengie apparently hopes to frame his primary race with Balderas as a fight against the Big Guy and his forces. Hey, stranger things have worked.

BURPO GOES TURBO

Remember Rob Burpo? Sure you do. The former two-term ABQ NE Heights legislator left the Roundhouse to run for the 02' GOP Guv nomination, only to fall victim to eventual winner John Sanchez. Burpo was none to happy with what he saw as unfair treatment by the forces of then State GOP Chair Dendahl who Burpo says favored Sanchez. That diss still weighs heavy on Rob who tells me is 'leaning toward' taking on fellow Repub and State Rep. Larry Larranaga in the June 1 primary.

Among other things, Burpo points to Larry's support of Patrick Milligan over Brad Winter in the October ABQ election. Milligan, a Dendahlite, came up short against Republican Brad Winter. Burpo represented most of the Larranaga district and believes that gives him a good chance to take the seat back. Larranaga has a reputation for working with both sides of the aisle, but observers say he may have been intimidated into supporting Milligan out of fear the Dendahlites would run a primary opponent against him. Wonder if he thought about opposition from the other side? Larry reportedly has already sent out a mailer in an early bid to line up votes. Burpo is no lighweight so this is going to be another GOP legislative intra-party war to watch. Meanwhile, Milligan emails me to report that Rob may be upset about Larry supprting him, but Burpo also helped him by donating $100.00! Is Burpo burning the political candle at both ends?

CHICKEN ALA CHENEY

What do you get at a $1000.00 lunch? Well, the GOP was not exactly putting on the Ritz for VP Cheney's Monday ABQ lunch appearance. One attendee (yeah, some rich R's read the blog) told me it was literally the 'rubber chicken" circuit with the well-off lunchers dining on lowly poultry as they heard the Veep tout the Prez. However, the humble menu did not stop Cheney from raising $200,000 for the campaign coffers.

LIGHTNING ROD LEADS

There's a bevy of fee and tax hikes in the state budget racing towards final approval. So where are those anti-tax Republicans? Maybe a bit behind the curve as they make for the exits and their re-election bids. But not State Sen. 'Lightning Rod' Adair of Roswell. He emailed his supporters a lengthy analysis of what New Mexicans are about to pay as a result of the session. Lightning Rod, who often swings wildly and misses, has touched a nerve this time. The Trib's Shea Andersen has the Adair budget analysis which is going to help frame the coming campaign debate.

THE BLOG AT UNM

I spent part of President's day as a guest lecturer before UNM Professor Gil St. Clair's long-running New Mexico government affairs class and can report that the young political junkies are more sophisticated than we were. They asked about negative campaigns, why some news stories were on the front page they did not feel belonged there, and why CBS would not air an anti-Bush ad during the Super Bowl. Very refreshing to see that kind of depth, but at the same time a bit disturbing to see that the negativity in politics has stripped away some of the idealism of our young generation. Maybe they will be the ones who will restore the civility clearly lacking in today's political scene. Gil will start a new class this year devoted solely to media and politics, a valued addition to the UNM poly sci effort.

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? Email me or call 505-243-4059 for details.

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Friday, February 13, 2004

Heather's Fire Returned, No Valentine For Ramsay, And: Jeff Backs Kerry While Kerry Absorbs Drudge Shock 

Heather Wilson's outburst (see yesterday's report) against CBS and Viacom for airing a racy half-time show at the Super Bowl has drawn some return fire. Local wags, mostly Dems, ask pointedly if Heather is willing to put her money where her mouth is and not put her campaign commercials on CBS affiliates? The wags also point out that the ABQ GOP congresswoman has over $750,000 in her ever-growing campaign kitty, big chunks of it from the pharmaceutical industry which some of her constituents find as profit-hungry as Viacom. Will she cease taking donations from that industry?

Of course, the answers are no and no. Politicos can blast greedy corporations all they want, but when you look in their own backyard, they are just as money driven, raising untold millions from just about anyone in their quest to get re-elected. Sounds a lot like trying to get those CBS ''ratings'' Heather is in a tizzy about, doesn't it?

And what of the politics of the nationally televised Wilson tongue-lashing? One observer recalled the response Heather received when she was introduced by the Prez at a recent Roswell rally. She basically got no response, while loud cheers were given to her fellow GOP Congressman Steve Pearce. Sure, Pearce represents the area, but, our observer reflects, the silence had to be deafening for Heather. "Her hit on Viacom will resonate most with conservative southeast NM Republicans who she would badly need to win any future GOP U.S. Senate primary against Pearce or another conservative," said our source who has worked at the highest levels of New Mexico politics.

MORE GOP BLOODLETTING?

And another reliable source comes to us with the news of yet another possible flare-up in the NM GOP. It's over State Senator and State GOP Chair Ramsay Gorham. Our source reports that the forces of former state chair John Dendahl, who Ramsay ousted last year, may be grooming a GOP primary opponent for Gorham. The name: Leland Gould. His game: lobbyist for energy firm Giant Industries. The problem: Gould is a registered lobbyist out of Scottsdale, AZ. Unless he has a home or apartment in Ramsay's district, or is about to get one, this may just be a rumor to give the state chair a scare. Previously, Dendahlite and former GOP executive director John Ryan has been mentioned as a possible primary opponent for the always-under-fire-Ramsay. Sources at the Roundhouse told me this week that Ryan is still a possible.

Ramsay e-mailed me a couple of weeks ago to say she was indeed running and not planning a last-minute withdrawal and a "hand-off' to a favored successor. We can only take her at her word. She would likely win any GOP contest, but it would further tear apart a party that has been putting itself through the shredder for months. Filing date for all the legislative candidates is mid-March. It will be constant speculating and jockeying for position right up till the deadline. I wonder if a big name Dem will file for the Gorham ABQ North Valley senate seat? Let me know if you hear anything.

GOOD TIMING, JEFF

Senator Kerry's possible relationship problems are not scaring off NM Dem U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman. He gave Kerry his go-ahead saying the Massachusetts senator is in the "best position' to unite the Dem Party. Just as Bingaman's Washington office was releasing the Kerry plug, the right-wing Drudge Report was screaming of an alleged relationship Kerry had with a 20 year old woman which Drudge said is the subject of "major" probes by several national news organizations. Drudge claims Kerry will respond to his report today.

It was a bizarre day in American politics with the Drudge Report as the topic of just about every talk-radio show in the country, but nary a peep out of the broadcast or cable TV networks, which say they have a higher bar to jump before they can air such allegations. (KRQE-TV's Dick Knipfing did quote the report on the 10 p.m. news) John Edward's is right. There are two America's these days. And no where is that more evident than in the world of media and politics. Millions of radio-listening and internet-reading Americans get a sensational report, that, if true, could impact the Prez race. The rest of America sits before it's TV's eating Doritos, completely oblivious to the firestorm raging outside their window. Is this an episode of the 'Twilight Zone' or what?

KATHY'S CURIOSITIES: THE GREAT CHOCOLATE WEEKEND IS HERE

Forrest Mars Sr. invented the recipe for M&M's during the Spanish Civil War. Mars saw soldiers eating pieces of chocolate covered with a hard sugary coating. The coating preventing the candy from melting in the hot sun. M&M's were first sold to the public in 1941, packaged in cardboard tubes. In 1948, the packaging changed from a tube to the brown plastic pouch known today. In 1954, "M&M's Peanut Chocolate Candies were introduced. That same year, the M&M's brand characters and the famous slogan "The milk chocolate melts in your mouth, not in your hand" were both trademarked.

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? Email me or call 505-243-4059 for details.

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Thursday, February 12, 2004

Heather's Holler: "Cover It Up, Janet," KOAT'S Nigrelli Heads North, And High Court Hijinx, And: Late Breaking: Kerry Bimbo Explosion?? 

The usually passionless Heather Wilson turned up the temperature last night as she graced TV screens across America with a withering attack on Viacom, owner of CBS, and its president, Mel Karmazin, for airing the Janet Jackson strip act at the Super Bowl. The ABQ GOP Congresswoman lit into Karmazin who was appearing before a congressional committee looking into the incident: "You knew what you were doing. You improved your market share and lined your pockets!" Exclaimed Heather, in a near-tearful tirade over Janet's bared breast. The CBS Evening News, CNN and other media picked up her tongue-lashing.

Her high-pitch seemed a bit out of character for the low-key lawmaker. But politically she picked safe turf. The Jackson act has been panned everywhere and the issue especially appeals to conservative Republicans. Heather's previous national TV shots, on Bill Maher's HBO program and a stint on the Fox network's 'Hannity and Colmes,' have fallen flat. This time she was more animated, if a bit demagogic. But you don't get to the U.S. Senate by hanging back and I'm sure her future competitors eyed her new act and are laying plans for their own coming-out parties.

You might ask what senate seat Wilson and her rivals could have their eyes on. Certainly, Sen. Domenici's. But that's not up until 2008. Sen. Jeff Bingaman is up in 06', but when asked recently by talk show host Mike Santullo if he definitely was seeking re-election, Jeff did not say yes. I am sure it was just an oversight, wasn't it Jeff?

OUR GAVEL TO GAVEL COVERAGE CONTINUES

Politicos are speculating on just what the U.S. Chamber of Commerce or affiliated groups hope to achieve by getting involved in supporting a Republican for the NM Supreme Court, if they indeed do decide to pump big bucks into the race. There are five members on the high court and adding one Republican would not seem to have a major impact. "I don't think it will happen, unless it will help Bush," e-mailed one observer. And he may be right.

Pumping money into Republican Ned Fuller's campaign against incumbent Supreme Democrat Ed Chavez might excite some more R's into going to the polls, and perhaps that's enough reason for Chamber involvement. But I also would not underestimate their desire to take out a trial lawyer like Chavez. Even one R on the all-Dem high court would be a major victory since there hasn't been one since the 80's. Through the grapevine, Fuller says he is unaware of any possible Chamber move in his race, but Fuller, at the last minute, opted out of a district court race in favor of the Supreme bid. That he was pledged financial support by someone or some group to make the run is a reasonable assumption. Stay tuned.

ANCHORS AWAY

Veteran Channel 7 anchorman Craig Nigrelli, whose departure from Channel 7 we broke on this web site, e-mails in to say his new job will be way up North, at the Minneapolis ABC affiliate. It's a bigger market than NM and will be a step up the TV ladder for the anchor and political junkie, who brought a measure of experience to KOAT's election coverage. Nigrelli will be joining fellow Channel 7 alumnus Tim Blotz in Minneapolis. Blotz has a job lined up t the Fox affiliate there. The money may be better for these guys up North, but what about the weather fellas? Good luck and take some green chile with you for those very cold winter nights.

KERRY'S PRIVATE LIFE UNDER SCRUTINY
Here we go again. On the Drudge Report, reports of media probes of Kerry's relationships.

LET'S END IT WITH A LAUGH

A final joke on the Super Bowl spat from a political angle. Did you hear about the phone calls after the Super Bowl? George Bush called the Patriots and congratulated them. Al Gore called the Panthers and told them they were robbed. Bill Clinton called Janet Jackson.

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? Email me or call 505-243-4059 for details.

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Wednesday, February 11, 2004

Lightning Rod Adair: If He Bolts A Replacement Awaits, Plus: Petition Day Brings Em' Out, And A Judge Judy Update 

Lightning Rod
Several weeks ago State Senator Rod Adair of Roswell told me he is seeking re-election this year, but apparently not all in the GOP are true believers. Several high-level Republican sources confirm that prominent Roswell Attorney Greg Nibert is quietly circulating petitions to seek the Adair seat, just in case the conservative lawmaker decides at the last minute to bow out. Here's how one of the sources puts it:

"The theory that Rod could back out at the last minute and pave the way for (State Rep.) Dan Foley to replace him is alive and well. It may or may not happen, but Nibert takes it seriously enough to circulate petitions and spring them if necessary."

If the Foley theory is true he too would have to be circulating petitions for the senate seat as well as his house seat. I have not had any firm reports on whether he is yet doing that. Last minute switches by legislative candidates is nothing new. A few years ago State Rep. Joe Thompson benefited when at the last minute Kip Nicely stepped down, after tipping off Thompson who was ready to go with petitions. No one else had a chance.

Nibert is not a Dendahlite. He is a power playing attorney with the Hinkle law firm and a former chair of the Chavez County GOP. He has deep ties with the New Mexico oil and gas industry and commands respect in Santa Fe. He did not return a call for comment on his petition gathering activity. It would be interesting to see a Nibert-Foley GOP face-off, but Foley would be hard-pressed to vacate his very safe house seat.
Nibert
Lightning Rod, who was the Lt. Gov. candidate for the GOP in 02,' was a key supporter of ex-state GOP chair John Dendahl who was ousted last year by Ramsay Gorham. Adair, who is a demographer and self-described polling expert, has been kicked off the gravy train since Gorham took over. The conservative lawmaker has blasted this blog and me personally, as well as just about every other source of political news and commentary in the Land of Enchantment. He circulates an occasional newsletter with his hard-right viewpoints. Foley is an understudy of the Dendahlites and, like Adair, is a popular conservative in his neighborhood.

Lightning Rod's temper is known to flare on occasion. His legendary fisticuffs with then House Speaker Raymond Sanchez, was caught on camera in a Capitol hallway. This report will probably elicit another Adair-Foley outcry. So fellas, I want to thank you in advance for the publicity.

SIGNED, SEALED AND DELIVERED

A couple of suprises on petition filing day Tuesday at the Sec. of State's office in Santa Fe. Longtime Green Party member Abe Gutmann phoned in to tell me he filed for the ABQ congressional seat held by Heather Wilson, but if he wins the Green nomination he will turn around and support Wilson's probable Dem opponent State. Sen. Richard Romero! The Green's Jeremy Brown also filed Tuesday for the congressional nod and is not prone to deal with the Dems if he wins. However, Brown says if longshot Miles Nelson beat Romero he would consider doing a coalition with the Dems. All this might be academic. Heather now has a whopping $750k in the bank. Gutmann was censured by the Green's for his past dalliances with the Dems, but it doesn't seem to have changed his mind that the Green Party should not hurt the Dems when they have a liberal or semi-liberal candidate.

GENTLEMEN, (AND MAYBE JUDGE JUDY) GRAB YOUR GAVELS!

Those two high court races we've been tracking for State Court of Appeals and State Supreme Court are now in focus since petitions have been filed. State GOP Director Tom Carroll phones with the news that former State Rep. Paul Barber for Appeals, and Ned Fuller for Supreme Court, received "plenty of signatures" and will be on the June 1st primary ballot. It was a last minute switch for both men. They had been seeking district court judgeships, but went for the higher seats when, according to my sources, they were promised financial support; Fuller in particular. The speculation being the U.S. Chamber of Commerce wants to spend big bucks to beat Dem Supreme Ed Chavez who was just appointed to his seat by Big Bill. More on this in my Feb. 6 report below.

Which bring us to Judge Judy. Those Bernalillo County judgeships Barber and Fuller were going for need fresh GOP contenders. And sources say Metro Court Presiding Judge Judy Nakamura has her eye on one of them. Judy has been in the blog news as a result of Big Bill crossing the aisle and appointing Republican Metro Judge Denise Barela-Shepherd up to district court, leaving Judy's fragile GOP majority for presiding judge in jeopardy. A race for district court would leave that behind her and would also give her a bump up the pay scale and the prestige ladder. Another district court GOP judge hopeful will apparently be veteran ABQ accident lawyer and loyal Repub Kerry Morris. He is said to be circulating petitions and will file for a court seat in mid-March. I will update the Dem contenders in future reports.

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Tuesday, February 10, 2004

Hey, Pass The Bacon, Big Bill's 'Pork' Reform Is Fried, Plus: Down to The Wire For GOP's High Court Contenders And More On Manny & Steve 

Pork reform is going to the slaughterhouse in the Legislature. Hundreds of millions of dollars in capital outlay for projects around NM are divvied up each year by the Legislature and the Guv, but the Guv wans to control more of it because he says it's not being spent 'efficiently.' Fat chance of that, say my sources at the Roundhouse. Here's how our high insider puts it:

"It seems the Gov. has thrown in the towel on his capital outlay reform. There's been no talk of reform the past couple of weeks, and we are proceeding in the same manner we always have. The capital outlay subcommittee is hearing member's requests and have put in a lot of hours. Citizens have been traveling up here and appearing to support the capital outlay requests. All indicators are that we are doing this as we always have. The Gov. is not sending any signals that he will sustain the fight."

So rejoice pork-barrel politicos. It appears you will get your fill. This being an election year, it was a stretch to think the lawmakers would give up one dime's worth of their pork to Big Bill. So Guv, get out of the barnyard, there are some hungry hogs that need to be fed.

DOWN TO THE WIRE FOR GOP HIGH COURT WANNABE'S

Late last night State GOP Executive Director Tom Carroll reported he is "optimistic' that the GOP's late-entering State Supreme Court and Court of Appeals candidates will have enough petition signatures to meet today's deadline and win spots on the June 1 primary ballot. Both have received the 1900 GOP signatures that each must be file in Santa Fe today by 5 p.m. Carroll says former State Rep. Paul Barber, running for Court of Appeals and Ned Fuller going for State Supreme Court, 'should make it' because most of the signatures will be genuine Republican and not subject to disqualification. See my Feb. 6 report for just what is happening in these races. The State Supreme Court battle could turn into a big-spending one for the first time in history.

DON'T GET TOO COMFORTABLE, TOM
Also filing mandatory petition signatures today are the candidates for the state's three Congressional seats. And the GOP has managed to come up with two contenders who hope to take on Dem. incumbent Tom Udall who is unopposed for the Dem nomination June 1. Greg Tucker, the 30 year old DA from San Juan County and Native American Ed Tsiyatee of Las Vegas, NM, are both in the battle. Udall has a half-million in cash in the bank and is in a solidly Dem district. But at least the GOP found someone, probably Tucker, to oppose him so we will have a campaign up North.

MANNY & STEVE--YES, IT CAN HAPPEN

No sooner had I blogged here that outgoing Bernalillo County Commissioner Steve Gallegos just might be the guy to replace senate powerhouse Manny Aragon, if Aragon resigned his seat to take the presidency at NM Highlands University, than the nay sayers were on the e-mail telling me 'no way.' Steve doesn't live in the district, they said, so no deal is possible. No deal is possible in New Mexico?!! Please guys and gals. All it takes is an apartment to establish residency. And it has been done so many times over the years, I have lost count.

People love to write and point out this residency requirement. Again, give me a big break! All of you veterans of the NM political scene have your residency switching stories. These alligators can and do switch addresses on a dime. So don't pour cold water on a possible Gallegos succession to Aragon just yet. And don't rely on where a candidate lives as a guide to what can happen in the political future because it isn't always reliable.

FINAL TAKE

Our last take today comes from the Trib's Shea Andersen who has an update on the GOP friction in NM.

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Monday, February 09, 2004

Manny: GOP Foe Emerges; His Future: Resign Senate? Who Would Replace Him? Plus: Big Bill's Blow-up: What They're Saying 


Legendary legislative powerhouse Sen. Manny Aragon has been busy lately trying to get the Guv to consider a redistricting bill to put GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson out of business, but the South Valley lawmaker has some districting problems of his own. His neck of the woods is less Democratic friendly than it used to be, and now word comes to "New Mexico Politics With Joe Monahan" that Manny has drawn a Republican opponent, and he's no lightweight.

Republican Fernando C de Baca, a cabinet secretary for health and social services in the Guv Apodaca days in the 70's, tells me he is off and running against Manny and says the redesigned district gives him a glimmer of hope. "Joe, the district now extends up to the East Mountains in Bernalillo County and includes Bosque Farms to the south. Both of these areas are filled with Republicans, so I am hoping for a competitive race," the South Valley native told me.

Considering that Manny only got 55% percent in his reelect four years ago, C de Baca's analysis can't be dismissed.(The district is now 59% Dem) He also says Manny "has been there too long" and that the district, despite the senator's stroke, is still behind in "getting improvements." But C de Baca also skews to the right when he talks about bringing "God back into the classroom," and he talked to me about it a lot. But the 66 year old, who has been involved in environmental consulting in Chicago and Washington D.C., is bright and able and definitely not a token opponent. His chances of beating Manny are not good, but not outside the realm of possibility.

A 21ST CENTURY MANNY

The wall-leaners at the Capitol are also chewing on Manny's future outside the senate. He is known to be interested in the presidency of NM Highlands University, and if he got it he would have to resign his senate seat. If he tried to keep both, he would be run out of town on a rail. So if he does get that job, who would take his senate position? Speculation centers on outgoing Bernalillo County Commissioner Steve Gallegos, an old ally of Manny's who was his special guest on the opening day of this year's legislature. Steve also has served as senate sergeant-at-arms, a job he got courtesy of Aragon. I ran into Steve a couple of weeks ago (he works at the Dep't of Labor in ABQ) and he told me he was recovering from his heart problems, but just wants to go fishing and leave politics behind. Right, Steve. And a bee turns down honey! Any Aragon vacancy would be filled by the Guv because it is a multi-county district.

BIG BILL'S BIG BLOW-UP; HOW'S IT PLAYING?

The Big Bill blow-up with lobbyists from the Big Pharma industry draws some incisive comments from top insiders on both sides of the aisle. Sen. Tim Jennings went ballistic on the Guv for strong-arming a group of health care lobbyists at a meeting last week. Here is a round-up of the insider comments I have received on the Big Bill-Jennings spat.

Sen. Jennings
"Well, the sheen is off the governor, but it remains to be seen just what impact, if any, all of this has on his agenda. Despite Jennings, the Senate remains solid for him, and that may be his trump card as this session goes down to the wire."

"What a stroke of luck. He loses his cool and it goes public, but he loses it with some of the most unpopular industry's around--nursing homes and drug companies." He gets to paint himself as a populist, and Jennings looks like he's in the pocket of special interests."

"There's a crack in the armor, for sure. The 110 mph freeway trips, the secrecy over who has paid for some of his travel and now this. Eventually, all governors have their warts exposed. Bill is no different. He needs some trouble-free months to recoup. That will be easier to do once the Legislature adjourns. But his enemies are gaining strength from the missteps."

"He has a long history of blow-ups in private meetings, but this one breaks his way because he can say he is standing up for the little guy against the big, bad lobbyists. So he takes a brief hit with the Legislature, but what about the public? He probably wins with them. If he had done this with a group of legislators and it went public, all bets would be off, but who you are fighting is just as important as the fight."

"This health care group puts up TV ads knocking Richardson's health-care bill, and then they go into his office and try to cut a deal. Give me a break. Any governor would be mad. They were trying to strong-arm him and no executive would put up with it. He may have lost this one on style, but he wins the PR battle.

MY TAKE

Big Bill has given his opponents a big target through his over-the-top-personal style, but they still can't seem to hit the target. Jenning's wife attended the meeting and the senator from Roswell compared the treatment she received to "domestic abuse." Give us a break, Tim. This Guv has come to play. An emotional outburst is not exactly a cool cucumber strategy to take him out. Noteworthy: No other Democratic senators joined in the Guv-bashing.

The Legislature's day may come in leveling the playing field with the Big Guy. But it won't be at a meeting of drug company lobbyists. Big Bill, of course, needs to tone it down and be aware that conversation terms used at a boxing match do not fit into a legislative discussion. That's basic diplomacy, isn't it?

MORE ON MANNY, THE JENNINGS JIHAD AND QUIRKY BURQUE

AP veteran LarryCalloway has some good history on Manny in his latest web column. The New Mexican's Steve Terrell is a reliable legislative witness. More on the Jennings blowup from him. And then there's Quirky Burque which has a decidely new generation bent on local happenings. Enjoy.

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Friday, February 06, 2004

Big Bucks Fight For NM Supreme Court? Something Is In The Wind, And: Join Me Tonight On KNME-TV At 8:30 P.M. For A NM Prez Recap 

Races for the State Supreme Court are usually low-key affairs with the contenders touting their judicial resumes, but a top NM legal source tells "New Mexico Politics With Joe Monahan" there could be some mud thrown on those black robes this year. This week the state Republican Party sent out an urgent email asking for volunteers to get petition signatures for Paul Barber for the state Court of Appeals and Ned Fuller for State Supreme Court, but other sources tell me until now both lawyers were seeking support for District Court judgeships. Why the switch? That's the big question.

Our legal beagle says rumors are swirling that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is promising to pump big bucks into the Supreme Court race in an effort to dump Supreme Ed Chavez, who was appointed last year by Big Bill to fill a vacancy on the five member panel. According to our reliable source: "The rumor about the Supreme Court candidate is that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce promised a big chunk of change to take on Chavez, but the candidate has to toe the Chamber line. If the rumor is true you could be looking at our first $1 million NM Supreme Court race."

Our legal beagle says that's what happened in Ohio where millions was spent on negative TV ads by anonymous 'independent' groups to support favored high-court candidates. The Ohio Legislature is now looking at changing state law to force full disclosure. As far as I know, there is no law here against independent groups coming into NM and doing the same.
CHAVEZ
Justice Chavez, an ENMU graduate, was an ABQ trial lawyer before getting the call from Big Bill. Under our system an appointed judge must face one competitive election. If elected, the judge then simply stands for 'retention' where voters say yes or no on the judge. A judge must receive a 57% "yes" vote to be retained. Our legal source says the Court of Appeals seat that Barber is going after is not on the Chamber's rumored hit list, but it's a good bet that Barber, a former GOP state rep., was promised financial support by the GOP to switch races in mid-stream. Fuller is a political unknown and no Republican has been elected to the Supreme Court since the 1980's. But all bets could be off if really big money comes into a Supreme Court contest for the first time in history. Stay tuned.

FOCUS ON THE CAUCUS ON 'IN FOCUS' ON CHANNEL 5

Want some more insight on what happened during Tuesday's NM Prez caucus? Join me on KNME-TV Channel 5 Friday at 8:30 p.m. and again Sunday at 9:00 a.m. as Kate Nelson hosts a roundtable to discuss the 2004 NM campaign.

PARDON ME

In a report this week I said Marc Racicot is chairman of the Republican National Committe. Of course, he is not, but is chair of the President's reelection campaign. Ed Gillespie remains at the helm of the RNC.

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. And remember, I welcome your email comments and inside news on NM politics. So use the email link at the top of this page and keep me posted.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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Thursday, February 05, 2004

Back to Those Lovable R's; My Meeting With The Prez's Right-Hand Man; Guv King Hospitalized, And: Join Me On KNME-TV Friday at 8:30 P.M. 

CHAIR RACICOT
Did you miss them? They've been off the radar for a month due to the Dems Prez caucus, but now that the candidates have all left town the GOP is back with us for a visit, and as is customary these days, the conversation continues to center on just who is running what in the Bush campaign here.

While visiting Channel 13 this week to discuss the caucus, I ran into Bush Reelect Chairman Marc Racioct, Bush campaign honcho John Sanchez and the just named executive director of the Bush-Cheney NM campaign, Scott Jennings of Kentucky. I wasn't much on the social graces with the GOP boss and former Montana governor. I just asked straight out if there is "peace" in the Republican party here? "There will be peace," he responded mildly. OK. If that's the case, who will be the executive director of the "Victory" campaign for Bush--the one that has been causing all the trouble between current State Chair Ramsay Gorham and supporters of her rival, former Chair John Dendahl?

"We'll have a press release on that in a couple of weeks," said Sanchez, the GOP Governor nominee in 02', who also told me he is NOT running for ABQ Mayor in 05'. But wasn't there just an announcement saying that the Bush Victory campaign will be run under the authority of Bernalillo County GOP Chair and Ramsay supporter Ken Zangara? Chairman Racicot diplomatically demurred, but the fact remains that who is executive director of "Victory' is an essential ingredient to any peace pact. All this is a bit confusing because to comply with finance laws there are two Bush re-elect campaigns here, "Bush-Cheney" and "Victory," which is the one that runs the grassroots campaign and the get-out-the vote-effort. It passes out contracts to operatives to get those chores done. Lots of folks want those contracts, including supporters of Dendahl and Gorham.

JOHN SANCHEZ
So while the "Bush-Cheney" campaign is settling in with a new director, Victory's leadership, said to have been settled under the previously announced Zangara peace pact, remains up-in-the-air. That says to me that there is still a behind-the-scenes power struggle being played out. A high-level GOP source told me the RNC remains livid at Gorham for "sticking her finger in the eye of the president" when she demanded a prominent role in the Victory committee. This same high-level source called me "misinformed" about what was going on; that it was Gorham's attitude that got her into trouble and "it had nothing to do with the Dendahlites" and their purported desire to dethrone Gorham. Please. Both sides in the GOP mess have been stubborn and unyielding. If I am misinformed, how come the reports on this web site sparked news stories across the state and nation regarding the infighting? That's a lot of "misinformation."

It does seem tentative steps are being taken to heal the wounds in time for Bush's Fall effort. Racicot was here in part to make a final peace between the warring factions, and an upcoming visit by VP Cheney to ABQ is being sponsored by both Dendahl and Gorham, at least their names are together on the official invitation. And all parties realize it is getting late in the game. But Gorham played hardball with the RNC, and these are not guys who take anything lying down.

The bottom line: Racicot's RNC is run by veteran operatives who have a hint of arrogance and the State GOP run by Gorham has a hint of paranoia induced by the Dendahlites. Both will have to stand down a bit to get the job done for the Prez, who needs all the help he can get these days.

Who will be the Victory executive director, and whether the choice is acceptable to both sides, remains the litmus test. New Mexico Republicans await the decision, as do the Democrats. The RNC has the stroke to deal Ramsay out and move forward. Will they? Meanwhile, nice to see you Mr. Chairman, and welcome to New Mexico director Jennings. Peace be with you.

BRUCE KING IN ABQ HOSPITAL

Former Governor King is in an ABQ hospital, but I am told his condition is not life-threatening. Here is an AP Report

(Albuquerque-AP) -- Former Governor Bruce King is a patient at the Heart Hospital of New Mexico in Albuquerque. A hospital spokeswoman says King’s family has asked that no information be given about his condition. The 80-year-old King had a heart attack in 1997. The damage caused a hole to open in the wall that separates the left and right chambers of the heart. That hole was repaired at the time, and King recovered. King lives on a ranch in Stanley with his wife, Alice. He served three terms a governor.

FOCUS ON THE CAUCUS ON 'IN FOCUS' ON CHANNEL 5

Want some more insight on what happened during Tuesday's NM Prez caucus? Join me on KNME-TV Channel 5 Friday at 8:30 p.m. and again Sunday at 9:00 a.m. as Kate Nelson hosts me and other guests to discuss the 2004 NM campaign.

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Wednesday, February 04, 2004

Kerry: Game, Set & Match! NM Big Turnout Landslide Shocks The Field; Donkey Kicks Clark and Dean; Dems Crow, GOP Yawns; Total Analysis Right Here! 

Somebody get me the thesaurus. I'm thinking blowout, landslide, wipe-out...well, you get the picture. Senator John Kerry ran the table on a crowded field in the first-ever New Mexico presidential caucus last night, and there wasn't even a a consolation prize. It was complete and total dominance by Kerry and helped make the 2004 Democratic Presidential nomination his to lose. It all brings to mind that old x-rated political axiom: "Only a dead girl or a live boy in his bed can stop him now."

The evening started with the Massachusetts senator narrowly carrying the 24,000 early mail-in ballots over Dean and Clark. The major networks did not catch on that this was a major coup for Kerry. Dean was expected to win the absentees because most of that vote was cast before the Kerry momentum from the New Hampshire primary. That early vote did capture some of the Iowa momentum. We called the race right away for Kerry as did pollster Brian Sanderoff on Channel 7, whose Journal poll this week nailed this one to the cross as it showed Kerry winning by a two to one margin. That's just what happened. Here are the numbers, and if you can find life in any of those below Kerry, please call 911 and report it immediately, because I sure don't. Following the numbers my expert roundtable does the political autopsy. Don't miss it.

KERRY--40347--39%, CLARK--19632--19%, DEAN--15660--15%, EDWARDS--10815--10%, KUCINICH--5166--5%, LIEBERMAN--2488--2%, GEPHARDT--671--1%, PENNA--74--0%

SANDEROFF'S SAYINGS

"Turnout is always the big mystery in polling, and turnout for this one was higher than most anticipated. The large turnout helped Kerry win the in-person voting because it brought to the polls more people who were swayed by the media reports of him winning everywhere. 'A more causal voter,' is how Brian put it. What about that vaunted Dean ground operation? "Everyone talks about organization, but it's clear that momentum can overtake any field operation. Also helping turnout was the passion by many Democrats to defeat Bush. It got them to the polls. Electability is the driving issue in this race and Kerry is seen as the most electable." Brian said it appeared Kerry would "get about half" of the 26 delegates at stake last night. But Dean is in danger. "If he falls below 15% in any of the congressional districts, he will get no delegates." Early this morning Dean was clinging to a statewide 15% total, but had dropped below that threshold in the southern district.

Is there anyway Kerry can lose this thing? "Only if the media do a number on him like they did on Dean, and there may not even be enough time for that." Good polling work, Brian

HARRY'S HIGHLIGHTS

Pollster Harry Pavlides called me in the middle of Election Day and told me to expect a turnout of over 100,000 based on calculations he did at two precincts! I thought he was joking, but he wasn't and he nailed it. Early this morning turnout was near 105,000. Ok Harry, you've earned your credentials, but what have you done for me lately?

"These numbers are preliminary, but it appears Kerry won a full 50% of the vote that was cast Election Day. (He only won 27% in the early vote.) Clark got about 17% of the in-person vote, Dean 13% and Edward's 12%." Now, that's definitely good political junkie stuff, Mr. Pollster. What else? "Forty per cent of the vote came out of Bernalillo County; higher than for an normal election. That's where all the candidate organizing kicked in." The low turnout in the south was par for the course, Pavlides said, but he agreed with Sanderoff that it showed none of the candidates excited the conservative east side Dems. "The big suprise to me was Kerry's strength. I expected him to hit 38%, but he went over 40, because these Democrats are as mad as hell and want to take Bush out." What about the future? "Dean is the big loser. His candidacy is over. Edward's is now running for vice-president. It's Kerry's to lose. He has to make a big mistake." We get the message, Harry. Good stuff.

STEVE'S STORY

"Field campaigns are highly-targeted and highly-effective in lower turnout races. This was a relatively high-turnout and was much more like a general election campaign." said veteran field organizer and Green Party operative Steve Cabiedes in a late-night gabfest. "Kerry's media momentum clobbered Dean's field. I was suprised Kerry won the south. It's because more of the voters there were not contacted by the field operatives. They voted off of the media and it showed." What about Dean, Steve? "One has to wonder if there is a glass ceiling at 20% of the vote for him. That's where he seems to be stuck everywhere."

What else? "The Democrats are energized right now, but as Kerry becomes inevitable that enthusiasm will diminish and they will have to build it all over again for November." Kucinich came in with 5% of the vote, his best anywhere so far and Steve attributed it to Green party operatives. "He got the cream of the crop and they helped him organize some Dems." As for second place Clark: "He didn't embarrass himself." And, finally Steve, is it over? "One last round this weekend, and then it's over," he offered as he went back to his numbers crunching.

BRUCE'S BROMIDES

Being 2,000 miles away in Washington D.C. didn't stop veteran NM Republican Party player Bruce Donisthorpe from throwing some long-distance cold water on the Dems party at the La Posada in downtown ABQ. "The turnout was very, very low in the south. That means the conservative Democrats did not come out and they plan to vote for Bush. I know the Dems are all happy about what they consider a big turnout, but I don't think it was a big deal. If they had turned out 30% of the vote we would be worried, but the 20% turnout means it was the same liberal activists coming out." Dr. Dean was mortally wounded, said Bruce. "A damaging night for the doctor." While happy with the low turnout in the conservative areas, Bruce did not have blinders on. "The Dems have us beat 1.7 to one in party registration so the race will be close." Any advice for the President's operatives? "Hit the library and look under Kerry, fellas. He's got a 21 year liberal record." And how about a GOP message for the big winner? "Sure, see you in November, Senator," declared The Bruce as he retired into the early morning East coast hours.

A FINAL TAKE

Some thought I jumped the gun a week ago when I said the race for the Dem nomination was effectively over (see below). Last night served to cement my views. But I do agree with the observation that while the caucus was a success for the Democratic Party, no new voting patterns emerged that directly threaten Bush anew.

One of the big winners was Big Bill. The Guv scored a TV trifecta for the first time in his governorship last night, appearing live simultaneously on all three ABQ network affiliates to announce the absentee vote. And he also was on every imaginable cable outfit. True, it was good PR for him, but in this case it was also good PR for our state.

Thanks to my expert roundtable for their help over these past few weeks in keeping me on top of things Presidential. And thanks to all of you for giving us a record number of "hits" to this web site. To all of my new readers I want to say welcome. Stay with us, there's more fun to come.

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Tuesday, February 03, 2004

Intrigue At The Roundhouse And NM Election Eve; It's A Race For Second, And: Early Exit Polls Are Out 


The rumor mill is swirling in Santa Fe over that crowded race to replace Jerome Block on the Public Regulation Commission (PRC) with the latest scuttlebutt saying Block could resign the seat and that Ben Ray Lujan, son of State House Speaker Ben Lujan, could be appointed as his replacement by Big Bill! Sources at the Roundhouse are buzzing about the purported deal that puts state insurance regulator Eric Serna in the middle of the action. The scenario has Speaker Lujan helping out Serna with legislation he wants passed and Serna in turn persuading Jerome to resign, paving the way for Ben Ray's appointment. Also figuring in this picture is State Rep. Max Coll who Serna supposedly fears might oppose his favored legislation. Apparently Speaker Lujan's influence could be brought to bear on Max. But what does Max get in return? Well, he probably could come up with something.

If such hallway intrigue actually becomes reality there is sure to be a squawk from the many candidates already lined up to replace Block in the June 1st Democratic primary. But Block has no where to go and perhaps an early exit could win him some support down the road for a run at the Land Commission or another office. Just speculation, of course. But speculation is the fuel of La Politica now in full swing at our cheery Capitol.

IS THIS VETO REALLY A VETO?

Meanwhile, there is also speculation by insiders wandering those circular hallways regarding that veto by Governor Bill and the unanimous House vote to override the Big Fella. Late word is the state senate cut a deal with the Fourth floor and will not be joining the House in the override. But how did things get so out of hand for Big Bill on this relatively unimportant legislation? Or did they? There are two schools of thought, one of them truly Machiavellian.

One insider pus it this way: "It's hard to believe that Bill did not know his veto, (of a measure to fund the Legislative Finance Committee) would not meet with a veto override. How can one of the nation's top diplomats not know it?" Wondered our perplexed insider?" How indeed?

Is it out of the realm of possibility that the Big Fella is throwing the Legislature a bone so they can flex their muscle before New Mexico and show that they can "stand up" to the Guv. The legislation in question is very low stakes to the electorate, and the lawmakers have been bristling that they have been plowed under by the fast moving Guv. The reality of the situation is hard to believe; that the Governor had NO idea that he would be overidden unanimously. Is he that isolated? Is his political ear really that deaf? Or is he just sticking his finger in the eye of the Legislature for kicks? As I said, it's very hard to believe. So maybe he is thinking "go ahead, give me a little tweak, it'll make you feel good and won't do me any harm." After all, I did call it the year of the Legislature." Ok, that's too far out for you. Try this one....

On the other hand, sources close to the action last night told me that the Guv's lobbyists worked the senate very hard to successfully avoid the override. "It had nothing to do with Bill trying to placate the Legislature. He grabbed for too much again and this time the Legislature rebelled. It may be hard to believe but he was overstepping," our deep insider explained. If he's right the Guv's legislative team needs a refresher course in Legislative Relations 101. It was the kind of error you make in high school student government. If you are going to take a risk do it over something big. An insider measure that the public doesn't give a hoot about would seem to be the last place to play a game of 'who blinks first' and unnecessarily risk hard-earned political capital. But, as Dennis Miller says, I could be wrong.

And so goes the never ending Roundhouse intrigue. Don't bother with a Ph.D in political science. Only veteran practicioners of the ancient art of La Politica can fully comprehend it all. Your humble blogger continues his studies.

ELECTION EVE; IT'S FINALLY HERE

The Dean Machine fights on and the candidate himself was here again Monday trying to turn it around or at least finish a good second. Dean can be expected to surge some in tonight's results. I look for Edwards to also come on a bit tonight, but perhaps not as much from Clark who has spent a lot of money and not moved his numbers. Bad weather is forecast for parts of the state but because the caucus attracts mainly Democratic activists turnout will not be hurt as much by bad weather as it would be in a normal election. I expect no bounce for the second place finishers here if they fail to come within half a dozen points of my expected winner, Sen. Kerry who is now battling high expectations in New Mexico and the other primary states. A single digit win may be greeted with yawns, but as I have written here (see below)Kerry is poised to seal the deal for the Dem nomination.

We'll have continuing coverage of the caucus tonight on this web site and a complete wrap-up Wednesday with my panel of experts who have been with me on this since New Hampshire. So stay tuned.

Early exit polls are out from the primary states (none from NM)> Here they are, but take them with a grain of salt. they could change as the day wears on
AZ Kerry 46, Clark 24, Dean 13.
MO Kerry 52, Edwards 23, Dean 10
SC Edwards 44, Kerry 30, Sharpton 10
OK Edwards 31, Kerry 29, Clark 28
DE Kerry 47, Dean 14, Lieberman 11, Edwards 11

Larry Ahrens and I shared an interview with Dem. Prez front-runner John Kerry on KKOB-AM Monday morning who was fresh from a rally at UNM and speaking to us on the go and on a cellphone. I asked him about the R's already calling him a "Massachusetts liberal." Kerry was quick to respond: "That's one label they can't pin on me" and he cited his support of deficit curbing measures in the 80's as well as welfare reform legislation. Kerry goes into today's Prez caucus here with a better than two to one lead in the latest poll. The race should tighten tonight, but it appears Kerry will finish with at least a third of the NM vote and capture the lion's share of the 26 delegates at stake. (By the way, Larry told me he is NOT seeking to get back in politics anytime soon, although he did not rule it out in the future. The top-rated Ahrens has been with KKOB nearly 25 years).

MY PREZ RACE ANALYSIS IN THE DENVER POST AND THE TRIB'S WRAP ON O4' CAUCUS

Denver Post national reporter Karen Crummy breaks the news that Governor Bill will push for a Western Regional Primary for the next go around. Read about that as well as my analysis of the race and its impact on the western U.S. Denver Post

The Trib's Iliana Limón has the final take on today's caucus
Abq Trib

And a final note. I'll have analysis of the caucus on KOB-TV with Neil Simon on tonight's early news. So join us then.

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author