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Friday, May 07, 2004

New Mexico Republicans: The Blood Has Dried, Now What?  

I've heard the pleas and I sympathize. But asking me to stop writing about the ongoing feud in the NM GOP is like asking a bee to stay away from honey. The action this week with the naming of Whitney Cheshire as "acting" executive director of the state GOP by new chair Alan Weh, (pictured above) who has committed to serve just a year, will put the war on hiatus, but does not get the GOP anywhere closer to resolving its headline-making disputes or, more importantly, the future direction and leadership of the party. The war will flare again briefly in June when legislative candidates backed by chief Dendahlite Mickey Barnett face-off against fellow Republicans and when Barnett himself is challenged for his Republican National Committeeman position by ex-state GOP State Rep. George Buffett.

Ms. Cheshire, in a brief telephone conversation, was upset that she has been characterized in this space as a Dendahlite. She maintains she is neutral. She points out that she worked for candidates associated with both factions, including the 2000 state senate race of ousted GOP Chair Ramsay Gorham. She has also worked as a press spokeswoman for Guv candidate John Sanchez who is associated with former chair Dendahl and Barnett. But her associations and those of Mr. Weh may be irrelevant. After all, insiders point out, they won't be around when the battle is joined again next year, and besides, neither are veteran political operatives with the inclination to lead either faction.

Both are closely associated with the Bush-Cheney effort, Cheshire as communications director, Weh as a Bush administration appointee. Republicans not associated with presidential politics, but who are running for the legislature or other offices, or just concerned about the future philosophical direction of their party, are naturally curious what the temporary leadership will be able to do for them.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The immediate crisis in the state Republican Party has been stayed as the Bush-Cheney campaign has put in place temporary state party mangers who will be responsive to its main goal: winning New Mexico and its five electoral votes for Bush. From their viewpoint anything else, including pick-ups in the state legislature and other races, would be gravy. Weh and Cheshire will no doubt earn their keep, but their service will be an asterisk to the history that will be written in the post-presidential months; history which will determine whether the Republican Party can unite itself and embark on a course that will seriously threaten the 70 year dominance of New Mexico politics by the majority Democrats.

Have a great weekend and join me back here Monday for more on the ever-changing world of NM politics.

Make our site---www.joemonahan.com--one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And remember to e-mail me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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Thursday, May 06, 2004

John Sanchez: Looks Like He's Looking For A Rematch, And Al Park and Big Bill: It's All In The Family 

Sanchez
Who knows where Big Bill's whirlwind political career will take him, but if he does decide to hang around these parts, either by choice or circumstance, he might find himself doing a political deja vu. Word comes to us from Los Alamos that GOP 02' Guv candidate John Sanchez did everything but announce there that he will seek a rematch with the Big Fella in two years.

Some may be afraid to watch after the drubbing John received the first time around. While the fight wasn't fixed, it surely was a mismatch. But Sanchez is nothing if not a believer in himself. And why not? He has an appealing personal success story, looks great on TV and loves to campaign. And he has friends in high places. Among them is Karl Rove at the White House who has taken a personal interest in the ABQ North Valley businessman who served one term in the state house after ousting Speaker Raymond Sanchez in an historic political duel.

John is now a regional director for the Bush re-elect drive and is using the opportunity to travel the state and perhaps set the stage for the rematch with Bill. Here's what he said in Los Alamos as reported by the L.A Monitor: "No candidate can win that is outspent by $7 million. We forced Richardson to run like a Republican because he wouldn't have been elected otherwise. After eight years of Republican leadership, the pendulum was swinging the other way but Richardson needed to capture the conservative Democrats. It's those conservative Democrats that are having buyers remorse-the ones I didn't get that now say they made a mistake. I'm not here to say what my political plans are, but I can tell you I've never been more committed to getting New Mexico back on the right track."

Yep, It looks like a rematch if Sanchez can keep other Republicans out. And with Big Bill's popularity, why would they run? But John, please get on some political steroids before you jump in, we can't watch another match that has to be stopped by the ringside doctor.

HEY BILL, CALL ME AL

About that $1000.00 a pop fundraiser held Tuesday night in Santa Fe for State Rep. Al Park courtesy of Big Bill. (See my April 28 report). We are told by sources in the know that the event was "very successful." Translated to an educated guess, Park probably raised at least $25 grand. And a sidebar. Big Bill's generosity will surely be rewarded in the Legislature by Al who is already being talked up as a future Attorney General candidate, but Bill may also make friends with Park's father, a heavy-hitting lawyer with international business connections. That, according to a source close to Park Jr., who says such connections could come in handy for our Guv if he re-enters the national political arena.

A wild week so far in La Politica, so make sure you check our reports below so you don't miss anything. And a special note to Big Bill: Please slow down next week, we need a rest!

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And remember to e-mail me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Wednesday, May 05, 2004

Big Bill & Kerry In ABQ: Any Chemistry? The Tea Leaf Readers Speculate, Plus: Kerry's New NM Director, And: Where's Richard?  

KERRY IN ABQ
We were eying them like they were on their first date: Big Bill and John. So, how did they get along? Will they be going out again, or was this a one afternoon stand? Rampant speculation nationwide over who Kerry will pick as his running mate heated up in our town again Tuesday when Kerry stepped off his plane for a brief "message event" designed for a quick TV pop. But did the Senator have other other designs while he was here? Here's some surprising commentary from a high-up, deep Dem insider who was in on the Kerry visit.

"I really thought Bill looked uncomfortable, almost unhappy. His body language and general demeanor were not upbeat. He seemed to be gritting it out. There was no real warmth between the two. If Bill is going to be Kerry's veep pick it was lost on me." Then our insider went a step further offering up a theory that may not be that farfetched. "I think during the stopover Kerry told Bill he would not be his VP and he will go over to Arizona and tell Governor (Janet) Napolitano the same. Maybe that's why Bill seemed almost glum during the Kerry event," offered up our informed speculator, who is not given to hallucinations. Kerry flew to LA from ABQ and will be in Phoenix Thursday.

I agree that Billl and John did not seem like young lovers and that it's possible Kerry broke Bill's heart during their private one-on-one. Kerry is known to be "vetting" the contenders and Big Bill is one of the "vettees.' It's possible the process of elimination is underway. On the other hand, maybe Bill was trying to play Humble Bill and not overshadow Kerry in any way or appear too eager for his blessing, thus his unusually subdued demeanor. Or maybe he was thinking about the responsibilities of Secretary of State, a job that Kerry may have offered him as a consolation prize.

MOSES TAKES COMMAND

MERCADO
While Senator Kerry made the rounds, word circulated on his pick to head up his NM campaign. It's Moses Mercado, say my insiders, and they say he's one of the top national political operatives in the Dem Party. He served as deputy chief of staff to U.S. House Minority Leader and one time Prez candidate Dick Gephardt. Back in 98' he plotted for congressional candidate Phil Maloof, who has close ties to the Missouri congressman.

Mercado's most important connection for us to know is to Big Bill's chief of staff David Contarino, who was also involved in the ill- fated Maloof effort. Mercado will be Kerry's top man here and Contarino will keep tabs on the operation for Big Bill, who plans on having big say on how the NM campaign is conducted. Local operatives have been complaining that Kerry's team is too Washington centric and needs to deal the local folk in. Mercado, a south Texas native, worked for Wesley Clark in the Feb. NM Prez caucus, after Gephardt dropped out. That he is Hispanic is not a coincidence as at least a third of our state's Prez votes will be cast by Hispanics.

SIMON'S MONEY; WYATT WONDERS

KOB-TV's Neil Simon hit the late news with the latest NM TV spending totals for the Prez candidates. So far, Bush has dropped $435,000 on the tube with Kerry dumping $469,000. But Simon reported Kerry had "soft money" groups pump more tube money in for him, bringing his grand NM total to $830,000, far past the Prez. The latest NM poll has the race here a dead heat. The TV sales guys hope it stays that way.


Over at KRQE-TV Tuesday, news anchor Kathy Wyatt asked me during an interview: Where is Richard Romero? She cited the new, if quite limited, TV presence of ER Doctor Miles Nelson, who is vying with Romero for the Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat held by Heather Wilson. It's a good question and one that some Democrats are quite worried about. They see the nomination for State Senator Richard as safe, but they worry why he did not hit the airwaves with an early message and build strength for the upcoming November face-off with Heather.

"Is he aware that 98 per cent of House incumbents get re-elected? Just because he has an easy primary is no reason to lay back. He should have been on TV in April," complained one staunch Dem. Romero's campaign is being run by national operatives who have their own schedule. And, perhaps Romero is concerned about overspending early. But he and they may be underestimating just how far they are behind the incumbent, despite what their internal polls may say. Don't say we didn't tell you.

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details. And remember to e-mail me your news tips and comments. There's a link at the top right of this page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Tuesday, May 04, 2004

EXCLUSIVE: A Big Change In The Weather: KOAT's Mark Ronchetti To Exit; KOB'S Rice Going Too? Plus: Voting Starts Today, And: New Ex. Dir. For GOP 

RONCHETTI
Popular TV weather personality Mark Ronchetti, who played a major role in pumping life into KOAT-TV's languishing morning news effort, is headed to gray sky country at the end of the current May ratings period. That from my TV sources deep on the inside who also tell me that veteran KOB-TV weather predictor Larry Rice may also soon be history. They say they hear Rice's contract with the NBC affiliate "will not be renewed."

The twentysomething Ronchetti has spent six years at channel 7 making a name for himself as the humorous weathercaster for Action News in the morning and at noon. Insiders credit his outgoing personality with significantly boosting the morning news ratings at the ABC affiliate. "Morning viewership at 7 has gone way up in recent years. Although they are still behind KOB, there's no question that Ronchetti was a boost for them and they are going to miss him. I look for increased promotion of (morning anchor) Marisa Maes, who also tests well with the public, as 7 fights to retain the audience it has picked up," said a TV watcher familiar with the matter.

Ronchetti, a Vermont native, will be forecasting a lot more gloomy weather than he's used to as he takes up residence at a TV station in Portland, Oregon. He was lured there, according to my sources, by news director Dan Salamone, who recently left KRQE-TV to head to the Pacific Northwest. Ronchetti will see 7 thru the latest May ratings period.

LAST MINUTE FOR RICE?

Meanwhile, over at KOAT archrival KOB-TV, the forecast is more cloudy, but reliable sources tell me that longtime Chief Meteorologist Larry Rice is headed out the door. "I hear his contract will not be renewed," reports my source. Insiders speculate that KOB was not happy with the "demographics of recent ratings," meaning they are not attracting a particular audience segment they are targeting and that Rice may have fell victim to that reasoning. Another insider said perhaps the station needs to free up cash to pay for recently acquired veteran anchorman Nelson Martinez. By the way, the Martinez hiring at KOB is being cited as perhaps one of the reasons for the dismissal of KOB news director Brian Rackham last week. Apparently he did not favor the hiring of the popular news reader who joined the station in January. Rice joined the station in 1995, coming in from Seattle. I was not told when his contract expires.

PLEASE VOTE EARLY, BUT NOT OFTEN

Early voting starts today in NM's June 1 primary and we may have more of it than we did in Primary 02.' That's because election day this year falls the day after Memorial Day. Many people will still be gone for the holiday. Polling expert Brian Sanderoff tells me: "In the 2002 Democrat primary, 79% voted on Election Day and in the GOP primary 78% voted on Election Day. The rest voted absentee or early. For some reason early-absentee voting is much more popular in general elections than primaries. I think it's because in the general elections there are a lot more resources to run absentee voter programs and also because the political parties get involved."

Well said, Brian. As for how many people will vote, Sanderoff and other experts I consulted say it may be near a record low with as few as 20 per cent of the registered voters in either major party taking the time to cast ballots. That may be discouraging, but with mainly hot legislative battles to decide, there is no big race to get the electorate out. That will change in November with the Prez on the ballot.

In-person early voting begins at county clerks' offices around the state today. On May 15 early voting expands to other sites. Also, absentee ballots begin to be mailed today, meaning a lot of folks will be sitting down at the kitchen table this weekend to vote. Considering that the campaigns have barely started, many will be voting blind. That's one of the dangers of the trend toward early voting. Big stuff happens in the last couple of weeks, but it's too late to change your mind. I suggest if you have to vote early you do it as late in the election season as possible so you don't get caught voting for the guy caught with his hand in the till.

LATE BREAKING

Sources told me late Monday that Whitney Cheshire, a veteran GOP PR operative, will be named the new executive director of the NM Republican Party to replace Tom Carroll, who was axed along with the rest of the state GOP staff last month when Alan Weh took over from ousted GOP Chair Ramsay Gorham. Cheshire has been working as communications director for the NM Bush re-elect campaign. Previously, she served as press spokesman for 02' GOP Guv candidate John Sanchez. Cheshire is associated with the Dendahl faction of the GOP, which is sure to put her under close scrutiny as she begins the task of putting the state headquarters back in action.

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Monday, May 03, 2004

Big Bill For Vice-Prez: The Contrarian View; Why He Won't Get The Call 


The coverage has been absolutely fawning. Every other day the New Mexico press seems to be filled with a story about our garrulous Guv and how he is oh, so close to becoming running mate for soon-to-be Democratic Prez nominee John Kerry. You know all the reasons why. But what about the reasons why not? That's one story that has not been covered, until now. Calling on my expert sources across New Mexico, D's, R's and Green's, I give you the reasons why Big Bill will NOT be the next number two.

THE ETHNIC FACTOR

"Much is being made of Bill's Hispanic background and how he would be a historic pick. But his biography may be a bit thin in that regard. Remember, his father was an Anglo banker from Boston. His mother is from Mexico. It's not exactly a working-class hero story that would appeal to Latino's nationwide. Where's the "up-by-the bootstraps" part? Is it a no-brainer that Bill would pull in millions of Hispanic voters? I don't think so. Besides, Texas and California, the two biggest Hispanic states, are already decided, with Texas going to the President and California safe for Kerry. The last name of Richardson also clouds the picture. Obviously, that is not a Hispanic surname. If Kerry is looking to Bill strictly for Hispanic support, he may end up looking past him."

THE GEOGRAPHIC FACTOR

"The press spin is that our governor would bring to the table states like Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico. But is that guaranteed? Probably not. While many Hispanics live in those states, they turn out in low numbers. In October, all the focus will be on the top of the ticket. The vice-presidential candidates will be in the shadows. Who really votes for vice-president? I don't. I vote for the top guy and I think most people do. As for New Mexico, Kerry is positioned to win this state anyway. With his organization and money, Bill will probably be able to deliver this state to Kerry. So, why give him a spot on the ticket?"

THE CAREER FACTOR

"He has a great resume, no doubt about it. But he has his share of warts too. His time at the Department of Energy was controversial with the security problems at Los Alamos. He really wasn't Ambassador at the United Nations that long, and it appeared that he was eased out of the inner foreign policy circle by (Secretary of State) Madeline Albright. His congressional record also might be fodder. There's a lot of liberal voters there that could be fodder for the R's to use against him with swing voters. Also, the Monica factor. He got in deep when it was disclosed he interviewed Monica Lewinsky for a job at the United Nations, after she had concluded her affair with President Clinton. And the association with Clinton is not necessarily a plus. It is among Democrats, but how does that get you the undecided voters?

THE COSMETIC FACTOR

"Appearances may not be everything, but they account for something. Richardson is not the most telegenic politician, and this is the hyper-TV age. He looks a bit disheveled and at times his body language seems out of sync with what he says. His campaign debates with John Sanchez went ok, but I was surprised that he was not as clear-cut a winner against him as I expected. He is also a guy who likes to attack from behind the curtain. Out front, he is the great compromiser. The vice-presidential candidate will be expected to be a pit bull. Bill's personality is not necessarily in tune with that."

MY BOTTOM LINE

All the above is excellent analysis and shows how high-stakes this game is. What looks good on the surface has to hold up to the most intense scrutiny by the keenest politicos in the nation. They play tough and so will Richardson's competitors who can be counted on to exploit these weaknesses. Getting on a presidential ticket is a once on a lifetime opportunity. It won't happen by serendipity and it won't happen without a fight. The stakes are too high. Thus far, it has all been warm fuzzies for Big Bill. But things are about to get serious. No question, he has the right stuff or we would not be writing about it. No one wants to be seen as a loser. You can't say you want the job and then be humiliated when you are not picked. Bill's denial of interest in the post is a decades-old tradition among all those considered. His recent 'no comment" when asked if the Kerry folks were "vetting" his background is more revealing. But be assured, if Bill does get the call, it will be because of a no-holds-barred, behind-the scenes campaign that is going on at this very moment.

Make our site one of your 'favorites.' Bookmark it now and send a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
 
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