If you like em' close on Election Night don't take a vacation; New Mexico will be the place to be. The latest round of polls show we are going down to the wire and perhaps into the wee morning hours of Wednesday and beyond to determine who will win our state's precious five electoral votes. The ABQ Journal Research & Polling survey released today shows Bush at 47%, Kerry at 44%, 7% undecided, Nader 1% and Libertarian Badnarik at 1%. (Oct. 26-29, MOE +-3%) Meanwhile, the American Research Group (ARG) gives Kerry a one point lead over Bush. Kerry at 48%, Bush with 47%. (Oct. 27-30, MOE: ± 4%) That's the same margin ARG had it in their last NM survey in mid-October. Mason-Dixon reported late Saturday that Bush has 49 percent to Kerry’s 45 percent in the state. (Oct. 27-29 MOE-4%)

The Journal survey has good news for Bush in Bernalillo County, home to ABQ. According to the poll, he is two points ahead of Kerry in the metro area. Bush is running solid down South. Kerry, as expected takes the North. The winner will be decided, as it usually is, in Bernalillo County and its suburbs. That's why Bush will be in ABQ Monday and today Cheney will go to the Valencia County suburbs. Bush polled 32% of Hispanics, an expected number, but he is geting 20% of Dems, barely enough. Kery has women problems. He's only ahead two points with them. Kerry needs to bring home the Hispanics and women. Bill Clinon is here today working it for him.

Kerry does not have to win Bernalillo County big to take the race. Gore won it by 4,000 and eked out a 366 vote win four years ago. But if Kerry does not win the county like Gore, or loses it narrowly, it's unlikely he will get the nod. Same for Bush. I can't recall a statewide GOP winner who did not win in the state's largest county. He probably needs the win here. If it stays tight, look for another cliffhanger.

THE PLOT THICKENS

The ARG poll may have it as it will turn out Election Night, (they were in the field one day later than the Journal) a one point race with the possibility of a long wait for provisional ballots and some recounting to determine the ultimate outcome. The undecided in the Journal poll should break heavily towards the senator. If turnout spikes heavy among newly registered voters, Kerry is positioned nicely as he has a hefty lead among that segment in the Journal poll. But who knows for sure who will vote?

Kerry may or may not come back to ABQ. Former Prez Clinton is here today. The decision may rest on where Kerry stands in Florida and Ohio and whether he can risk taking time away from them. At this point, Kerry may leave it up to Big Bill to bring it home.

Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff also surveyed early in-person voters in NM and found the GOP is carrying them by a couple of points. That seems to say that all those newly registered voters were not yet flocking to early voting locations to go wild for Kerry. The absentee ballots will also go GOP, but by a significantly less margin than in past years. Turnout, turnout, turnout. I am almost as tired of hearing that as I am of the never-ending Kerry-Bush TV ads. But that's where the top political minds in our state tell me where we stand with just hours to go before the fateful decision is rendered.

HEATHER: GANGBUSTERS IT AIN'T

All signs point to a victory for incumbent GOP ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson as she faces a second challenge from D Richard Romero. Wilson has opened up an eight point lead in the Journal poll. Heather is at 51%, Richard gets 43% and undecided 7%. She trounced Romero by ten points two years ago. That will not happen this time. The smart money is predicting 52-48%. The longshot bet is a big spike in turnout among Dems and newly registered voters and Romero takes it by a handfull.

Wilson had several problems this time. First, the Iraq war and Bush have been unpopular in ABQ. But Bush's apparent improvement in Bernalillo County is good news for Heather. If the Prez is not whipped here, there will be no Kerry coattails to ride. Wilson's other problem is the 12 year phenomenon. That's when voters have no race on the ballot between Prez and Congress, such as senator or governor. With no other top-tier races, the attention moves right to the Congressional battle in the free and paid media. In a majority Dem district like ABQ, that put added pressure on Wilson. Also, this is the first time she has gone head-to-head with the Dem challenger. Her other races since 98' have featured Green Party contenders which siphoned votes away from the Dem. Still, the Romero move to paint her as doing favors for terroists was shot down and broke the race open for her. She was only a point ahead a month ago.

If Wilson wins, as appears quite likely, she will have paid a price in terms of her image and likabilty. If that's temporary, fine. If not, it could complicate her future ambitions for the U.S. Senate.

Romero and the national Dems have done pretty well, but they may not have started early enough to cement the anti-Heather vote. Also, Romero is still having trouble nailing down Hispanics, as Wilson is getting a too-high 37% of them in the Journal survey. All in all Romero should not be kicking himself too hard. He got the race in play and he still has a shot, albeit, quite a longshot, to pull off the upset.

NO BIG SURPRISE

That the ABQ street bonds and with them the controversial extension of Paseo Del Norte on ABQ's Westside will pass, according to the Journal poll, is no big surprise. A big turnout will reverse the defeat they suffered a year ago in the low-turnout city election. Ditto for the ill-advised Unification scheme. It too will go down, predicts the poll. It has been rejected untold times over the years, ABQ and Bernalillo County residents clearly do not have the urge to merge.

MONDAY: MY KANW-FM ELECTION EVE SPECIAL

Time to fish or cut bait. And that's just what I will ask my panel of epxert insiders to do Monday at 5 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM. Our hour long Election Eve special will feature top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland, ABQ Tribune managing editor Kate Nelson, Dem insider Terry Brunner and GOP State Senator Joe Carraro. Tune in and see if they can predict the big races right.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty, NM Legislative Reports and John Moore & Associates. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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Osama is here. And right on schedule. We've all been talking about it all year so it was only the way he appeared, not that he did, that constituted the proverbial "October Surprise." It's too early to calculate exactly the impact his preachy speech to Americans will have. But the first take is it certainly does not help John Kerry who represents change. The Halloween weekend appearance of Osama, fully costumed of course, is bound to frighten some timid voters more than those witches and ghosts showing up on their doorsteps Sunday night demanding candy.
In discussions with political insiders late Friday, it was the Wilson-Romero ABQ Congressional race that came up the most when discussing the Osama resurfacing. And with good reason. He has been a central figure in that nasty little drama. Dem Romero cut a spot implying Wilson, a member of the House Armed Services committee, did Osama a favor by voting against stricter cargo inspection rules. Wilson responded with a fusillade of ads and romero, according to internal party polls, started to fall.

Romero may have been rebounding from that overplaying of the Osama card, but with the hated one back in the news full force, some analysts Friday wondered if Romero has even more on the line than Kerry on this one. Will voters reconnect with Romero's Osama gaffe, or have they already moved on? And if they are impacted, how many of them?

THE LAST OF THE POLLS

The ABQ Journal/Sanderoff poll will be released Sunday morning, but it will not pick up the Osama story. The poll was just about done by the time that news hit. But it
should finally straighten out just where the Prez race stands here. My guess: Kerry is tied or with a slight lead. The Zogby tracking poll has been all over the map with internals that just don't match up with state history. I will have Sanderoff's analysis of the survey and others right here Sunday morning.

MONEY WATCH

I wrote here that Big Bill has not been laying out the money for ABQ North Valley Dem State Senate candidate John Hooker who is facing-off against R John Ryan. The liberal Hooker is not seen as a natural ally of the Guv, but the ABQ Journal's Kate Nash reports Big Bill's PAC, Moving America Forward, has given over $7,000 to Hooker in "in-kind" contribtutions. That's not cold hard cash but it needs to be noted that the Guv has covered his bets in what will be one of the most closely watched contests Tuesday night.

COURT BATTLE; A DRINKIN' THING

The battle for the open seat on the NM Court of Appeals has gone negative with R Paul Barber bringing up two drunk driving arrests incumbent Judge Michael Vigil received many years ago. Barber makes the hit on radio, but not on TV. Vigil's campaign responded with radio of its own saying Barber has been sued repeatedly for civil rights violations and has been repeatedly passed over for judicial appointments. Vigil is on TV with a positive close. Barber needs to carry heavy R Bernalillo County to make this a race. And he might do it. The last time he ran statewide he lost by less than a point.


I'M FULL-TIME THIS WEEKEND

I will stay with you thru the weekend monitoring and reporting critical last-minute events on this blog, including the Sunday ABQ Journal poll. Also join me on C-SPAN's "Washington Journal" program between 7:30 and 8 a.m. Sunday morning as I report the exciting NM Prez story to political junkies across the USA.

I will present a one hour Election Eve special Monday at 5 P.M on KANW 89.1 FM in ABQ and be back there for my 30th year of Election Night Coverage starting at 5 p.m. with the closing of the East coast polls. I will also appear on half a dozen Citadel Broadcasting stations in ABQ at various times throughout the weekend with host Art Ortega. Hope you catch one.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty, NM Legislative Reports and John Moore & Associates. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Never in it's short but colorful history has New Mexico ever seen anything like this. Two ex-presidents, a current President, the Vice-President and probably the Democratic nominee for President, all here within hours of each other. The historic fight for America's future has our state, often dubbed a "third-world country" by outsiders, front and center in one of the hardest fought Presidential contests ever.
Why, even "President" Bartlett, (Martin Sheen of West Wing) is coming in!

Bush will try to get the last word with an ABQ Election Eve visit. Don't bet that Kerry won't hit us again too. Vice- President Cheney will be here Sunday in Los Lunas in Valencia County in a last-minute bid for critical crossover Dems in the suburbs and to provide a counterpoint to Clinton's same-day visit. Former President Clinton--it doesn't get bigger than that--will hit Santa Fe and Albuquerque in a whirlwind two-day tour that will put the Democratic Party into an absolute frenzy. What heart problems??

THE RED-HOT PREZ TRAIL

The President's father and his granddaughters drove the R's wild in GOP owned Los Alamos Thursday. Senator Domenici, dean of the warhorses, is ripping thru the Land of Enchantment. Big Bill, putting it all on the line, is a whirling dervish, dispatching his operatives far and wide. The excitement is only heightened by those 'what to believe' polls. Zogby last night was showing a six point Bush lead, but the internals show a much closer contest. It's anybody's guess now and it's no time for amateurs. Both Prez campaigns here are operating at maximum professional levels with Scott Jennings of Kentucky leading the NM Bushies and nationally acclaimed Democratic operative Moses Mercado spearheading the Kerry forces.

We all anxiously await the climatic weekend; the visits, the door knocking, the shoe leather, maybe an "October Surprise," maybe a break in the few undecideds. It's anybody's guess and there's plenty of guessing. But in the USA it's the people who
end the guessing, not the polls or pundits. In New Mexico, one vote has never had this much power.

CONTEXT, PERSPECTIVE AND ANALYSIS

I won't take credit for it. Dems would get mad at me. But it is true that the Prez will come to ABQ Election Eve after staying out of here the past couple weeks, something I have been saying is essential if he wants to win here. It's the right play as Kerry positions himself for a Bernalillo County win that could cancel out Bush's victory in rural and Southern NM.

In recent days Bush or Cheney have been in Hobbs, Alamogordo and Farmington, but have offered nothing up to swing voters in the Big Duke City. With Kerry's ABQ lead they need to pitch to crossover Dems and I expect the Prez's Monday message here will aim for them as well as energizing the Republican base, the heart of which is in the ABQ NE Heights. But Mr. President, don't waste too much time on the base. Most of them have already voted. It will be working-class Dems and busy suburban women who will be going to the polls Election Day.

IS IT A HEAD FAKE?

Some of my more conspiracy-minded insiders who believe Kerry has the edge here speculate that Bush and Cheney are making a last-minute appearance to lure Kerry back here from crucial Florida and Ohio. Will the senator come back? "I dont think Kerry is going to let them have an open shot at him. He'll be back," one insider flatly declared. But can we fit him in? Somebody call the airport, we've got a lot of planes landing.

I'M FULL-TIME THIS WEEKEND

I will stay with you thru the weekend monitoring and reporting critical last-minute events on this blog, including the Sunday ABQ Journal poll. Also join me on C-SPAN's "Washington Journal" program between 7:30 and 8 a.m. Sunday morning as I report the exciting NM Prez story to political junkies across the USA. I will present a one hour Election Eve special Monday at 5 P.M on KANW 89.1 FM in ABQ and be back there for my 30th year of Election Night Coverage starting at 5 p.m. with the closing of the East coast polls.

WOOING THE WOMEN

Top NM Democratic women, aware that many of the last-minute undecided voters are female, are weighing in for Kerry in the final hours hoping to up his percentage with this vital portion of the electorate. NM First Lady Barbara Richardson, not much for the limelight, has surfaced with a tough letter-to-the editor.

"While many mothers fear that their child's school will be the next target of a terrorist attack, the reality is that the greatest threat to women and children in New Mexico comes from abusive husbands and boyfriends. Kerry has the experience and commitment to seriously address the problem of domestic violence. Families need a president who will pay as much attention to the threats we face in our homes as the threats we face from abroad." wrote the First Lady.

MARGARET'S MUSINGS
Meanwhile, Margaret Aragon, former first lady of ABQ, and member of one of NM's most politically active Dem families, predicts heavy support from "Hispanics, veterans and women" will put Kerry over the top by a three to five point margin in NM.

Chavez was fresh from the downtown ABQ Rally for Kerry where she joined the multitudes in cheering on their favorite. Her father, veteran politico and former ABQ State Rep Bennie Aragon, has retired from the campaign trail, but not from the game. "He's taking it all in." said Margaret of her dad who helped Big Bill organize the ABQ Valley in the 2002 Guv campaign and was instrumental in electing Bruce King in the old days.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty, NM Legislative Reports and John Moore & Associates. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the autho

The national polls are starting to fall in line with what all of us on the ground here know: New Mexico is a hotly contested state and that Hispanic's and big Bernalillo County are the prime targets.

The Zogby tracking poll now shows just a three point lead for Bush over Kerry. It's Bush 47%, Kerry 44%, other candidates 4% and undecided 5%. Most important, he shows Bush getting just 34% of the Hispanic vote, compared to 44% in the first night's track which polling junkies think was the result of a bad polling sample. Kerry is garnering about 53% support from Hispanics, a number we can safely project to grow to the low to mid 60's Election Night. That means in all probability this race is tied or Kerry is a bit ahead. Meanwhile, the Rasmussen poll conducted Tuesday with a MOE of 4.5%.shows Bush at 48%, Kerry 44%, Nader at 2%.

TROUBLE IN RIVER CITY

Zogby shows trouble for Bush in Bernalillo County where he is now almost seven points behind Kerry with high unfavorables. Still, from this corner the Bush strategy of ignoring the state's largest city late in the game and trying to pick up the win in small town NM is provocative, but now proving dangerous and looking more like a longshot. Can the President absorb a 10-15,000 Bernalillo County vote shock? Possible, not likely.

The Prez has been making a play nationally for crossover Dems, just the type of Dem in ABQ who needs to be persuaded. But time is short and the prize may be slipping away. Clinton comes to Santa Fe and ABQ over the weekend. He will work to get Greens and liberals fully on board, and then move for the final kill in ABQ. Will the roar of the big-city multitudes drown out the shouts in Bush's small town NM? Don't bet against it.

Daddy Bush is coming in today, but not to vote-rich ABQ, but instead to little Los Almos where the R's are the majority party. Granddaughters Jenna and Barbara will accompany Bush 41 and provide the eye candy.

ABORTION: MAYBE?

Abortion is the last issue a lot of candidates want to deal with and that apparently includes R Kathy Leyendecker who is challenging Dem State Rep, Al Park for his ABQ SE Heights seat. Leyendecker is getting blasted by the pro-life forces after she gave two different answers on the controversial issue to the ABQ Journal and Tribune. That has the pro-choice NM group on he warpath and dispatching an email and endorsing Al Park who they say is definitely pro-choice and has demonstrated "honesty and integrity." This one is Park's to lose.

HOOKER VS. RYAN

From poll numbers being floated, it seems the Republican John Ryan has not put away Dem John Hooker in he ABQ North Valley State Senate contest for the seat to replace Ramsay Gorham. But it also seems Hooker has not put away Ryan who has rallied support among top Republicans. He's a former executive director of the state GOP. Hooker, a former Mayor of Los Ranchos, is rallying the liberals, especially the environmentalists. He is not getting help from Big Bill, but Hooker has family resources to make up for it.

Disclaimer: polls in legislative district are notoriously volatile and have a high eror margin. This will be one of the big races to watch Tuesday night when you tun in to KANW 89.1 FM.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty, NM Legislative Reports and John Moore & Associates. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

The NM GOP is warming up the Greyhound and hitting the road for a week-long tour with the catchy title of "No Sleep 'Til Tuesday." But some R's on the inside say who is driving the bus is as interesting as where it's going. They say State Rep. Dan Foley, who has been more out front for Bush-Cheney than GOP State Chair Weh, is eyeing a bid for U.S. Senate in two years and that the bus tour and other high-profile events he has been involved in are aimed at that ultimate goal.

The seat that Foley, a hard-right R from Chaves County, would be eyeing belongs to Jeff Bingaman who has held it since 82'. But there have been rumblings that if the Dems stay in the Senate minority, Bingaman just might decide to retire. Of course, if the Bingaman seat does open, there will be a lot more R's, many of them better known than Foley, who will jump into the fray.

DAILY PREZ TRACK

Bush remains ahead in NM, according to the Zogby tracking poll. But Kerry, down by eight yesterday, is now down by five. Zogby has it 48% for Bush, 43% for Kerry, 6% undecided and 3% for others. He is still giving Bush over 40% of the Hispanic vote and Kerry just 45%. That's too high for the R, say the polling experts here. Kerry visited ABQ last night. Clinton comes this weekend. The Kerryites say undecided women are special targets in the closing days.

SOME COUNTING RELIEF

Some welcome relief came for beleaguered Bernalillo County Clerk Mary Herrera Tuesday. She has been given the go ahead by state officials to start opening the outer envelopes of as many as 75,000 absentee ballots at 12:01 a.m., instead of 7 a.m. when the polls open. The extra seven hours to unseal the absentees and get them ready for the vote-counting machines means we may, and I emphasize may, get the absentee results about 1 a.m. Wednesday.

WILSON-ROMERO WINDS DOWN

If the Wilson-Romero ABQ Congressional race seems to have fallen off the radar it's because it has. Voters are burned out on the negativity. That may work to Heather's advantage because it could cool voter passion for change. Insider D's say while the race is still a race, Wilson's financial advantage over Romero is coming home to roost. The other problem is that Kerry's Bernalillo County win, if he does win here, will apparently not be overwhelming, making a Romero victory more difficult. But the Washington Post listed the race this week as one of 10 House contests in the country to watch. Of course, there are few districts in play anymore in the gerrymandered Congress.

Insiders tell me it's Wilson's heavy support among seniors that may put her over the top. Romero, they say, should try to break some of those off in the closing days. The feel of this one is somewhat anti-climatic. It reached a fever pitch over the controversy over Romero's ad linking her to Osama bin Laden, but since has sputtered. Wilson remains the favorite, with Romero needing a big spike in turnout to get close or eke out the upset. Both sides are closing with the usual, and not very believable positive ads, after spilling gallons of blood on each other. Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico are hoping for a merciful end.

PROVOCATIVE PAMELA

Pamela Anderson is against cockfighting. There I said it. And no dirty jokes please. Providing a welcome diversion from Campaign 04' the buxom actress wrote to Big Bill urging him to outlaw cockfighting in NM, one of only two states that allows it. Anderson made her statements in a letter released by people for Ethical Animals. Big bill had no immediate comment, but his male staffers are probably working overtime to arrange a lunch with Pamela so they can get a personal briefing on this most urgent matter.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty & NM Legislative Reports. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Up to 2500 votes cast in Bernalillo County will definitely not be counted on Election Night, raising the specter of candidates slowly twisting in the wind awaiting results to settle closely fought battles. County election chief Jaime Diaz tells me that absentee ballots cast by first time voters who are required to enclose identification will NOT be included in the absentee total on E night and it may be several days before they are tallied. "We have sent out 2500 provisional absentee ballots to these first-time voters. So far, we have received 763 of them back. They can not be counted Election Night because they have to be checked to make sure they contain the proper ID and are properly registered," explained Diaz in an in-depth interview via cell phone from his busy-as-a-bee office.

With several thousand absentee ballots and other "provisional" ballots going uncounted E night here and elsewhere around NM, if either Prez candidate is not a multi-thousand vote winner it is unlikely we will get a declared victor next Tuesday. But you are getting used to that, aren't you?

PERPLEXING NM PREZ POLL

Now it's eight. That's the lead for Bush over Kerry in Zogby's nightly tracking poll. It's a real head-shaker with Zogby again putting Bush over 40% (41) with Hispanics, a number even the Bush campaign does npt expect to hit. Overall Zogby scores it 50% Bush and 42% Kerry. An increase of three points for Bush over the previous day's track. Bush visited NM Sunday. Kerry is in ABQ Today.I asked Republican warhorse Bruce Donisthorpe who roots for Bush, but has been giving us straight down-the-line analysis all year, what us poor poll watchers are to make of all this.

"Republicans should keep the champagne on ice. This race is tighter, but this poll is probably causing each campaign to take a look at their own numbers to see if
Zogby can be validated," said Bruce. He added that he agrees with analysts who feel Bush will be hard-pressed to get 40% of the Hispanic vote here which would be a record for a Republican Prez candidate. He also advises that "we follow the planes." "Both sides have scheduled major visits here. That tells you they certainly think the state's in play, as I do," stated the former Capitol Hill staffer.

I await the ABQ Journal/Sanderoff poll which will be out Sunday and will take extra care to weight the sample with newly registered voters, those who have already voted and Hispanics. Until then, keep your seatbelt on.

PARTY LOYALTY GALORE

It takes a lot of Democrats to become the most Democratic county in New Mexico. Guadalupe County takes the title with a stunning 84% of its registered voters proudly wearing the donkey symbol. Total voter registration in the north central county is 3,720. The runner-up is that old reliable Rio Arriba where 82% of the nearly 24,000 are D's.

As for the R's, their premier county is Lincoln in the southeast where 56% of the 14,000 voters are members of the party of Lincoln. Dems have 50% of the registered voters in the state, but many of them are independent, often crossing over to the R's when the mood suits them.

STATE SENATE FIZZLE?

Late word from Carlsbad and Eddy County has the smart money betting on R Vernon Asbill to take the state senate prize over D Jeff Dimond. The race started hot, the locals say, but has since cooled and the seat, being given up by Don Kidd, is no longer seen as in play. Asbill, a retired Carlsbad School super, switched from the D's to the R's last year. But down that way there isn't always a whole lot of difference.

IF DOGS COULD VOTE...

GOP Public Regulation candidate Ward Camp has been picking up the accolades from the newspapers and even the liberal Sierra Club, but that isn't stopping D Jason Marks from trying to budge the numbers in the mainly ABQ and Republican leaning district. He's gone negative on radio charging that Camp, a former utility lawyer, would be too close to industries he would be regulating. Marks says he would be the consumers' "watchdog." His ad is replete with a barking dog to drive the point home.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty & NM Legislative Reports. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

New Mexico is in this one till the end. We are now just one of 11 states getting Prez advertising as the battle for the power and glory goes down to the proverbial wire. Supernova Bill Clinton is coming in to seal the deal for Kerry Halloween afternoon. Kerry is in downtown ABQ Tuesday. The Bushies field organization is scouring for every last vote and received a boost Sunday as the Prez rallied the conservative faithful in Alamogordo. Boys and girls, it's a turnout game now. You know where I stand. I would have preferred to see Bush make more of a play for the swing voters and Bernalillo County. His campaign says he's doing that with his terror message which they maintain will attract late-deciding women in NM and the nation. I like the Kerry playbook, sending the senator into Las Cruces Saturday to pump up turnout in the heavy D county, but one notorious for low voter turnout. And how can you argue with putting Bill Clinton smack in the battleground of this battleground state--Bernalillo County? Well, you can't.

Meanwhile, NM has taken on an increasingly important role for Bush with insiders at the top saying with Ohio now looking doubtful, the Prez is looking for a combo play of Wisconsin Iowa and NM to replace Ohio's possibly lost electoral votes.

MY ANALYSIS

I scored this thing last week for Kerry by about 10,000 votes. Some were surprised. But remember, with a turnout of 700,000 that is a very narrow 1.5% win for the challenger. I reserve the right to make a final prediction based on the final hours of activity, the last polls, the E day weather forecast and my turnout projection. The Zogby tracking poll, conducted by phone, not internet, reported Sunday night that Bush has opened a five point lead--49% to 44% over Kerry in NM, (MOE +-4.1%). The latest Mason-Dixon has a similar Bush lead. But Zogby has Bush polling a whopping 44% among Hispanics, but Bush only carried 30% of the Hispanics in 2000.

Bush's organization here has pulled out all the stops, but so has Big Bill and the D's. It comes down to who wants it most. Whether it's Bush or Kerry, New Mexico is a big winner. The victor will remember well our out-of-the-way Land of Enchantment, it's issues and its people. Long live the Electoral College!

WHAT IF KERRY LOSES?

Politics being what it is speculation is already underway on what happens if Kerry loses. What do the Dems do then? Not to worry. The New York Times Sunday mentioned a list of possible candidates for 08' and they included our own Big Bill. Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Howard Dean and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh were also talked up in the article which quoted major Dems as staying their bench is weak. Big Bill's deep experience in foreign policy surely would help. If Bush wins the election the victory will be owed to his emphasis on terror, a theme that could be with us for a long time to come.

And get a load of this one. If Bush does win re-election speculation from one insider web site, govexec.com, has the name of Heather Wilson popping up as a possible for Secretary of Energy. The bad news for Heather is that those jobs are often filled in a second term by losing U.S. Reps and senators. If she ever does end up at Energy, she can get some tips from Big Bill who had it under Clinton and can point out the trap doors.

FOLEY UNDER FIRE

Sure, Dan Foley will win re-election to his safe conservative State House seat down in Chaves County, but the Dems, and Big Bill in particular, are throwing back some of the firebombs that Foley has aimed at them. Foley, who aspires to House Minority Whip, has a few speeding tickets in his past and the D's are having fun with radio ads letting everyone know about it. Foley recently followed Big Bill around at various stops in a ploy that the Dems say bordered on harassment. Now it's Foley's turn to get chased around. Of course, Big Bill is no slouch in the speed department having trekked to Santa Fe at the rate of 110 MPH on occasion.

DENISE LAMB'S TAKE

Denise Lamb, tracking the action now for ten years as head of the NM Bureau of Elections, alerts us to keep an eye out Election Night on "in-lieu of" and "provisional" ballots. In-lieu-of ballots are the ones cast by voters who say they are showing up to vote because they did not get their absentee ballots in the mail, even though they requested one. Provisional voters claim to be on the voter rolls, even though they are not listed. "They will number in the thousands," Lamb told me from her war room at the Capitol.

The in lieu and provisional ballots will have to be checked closely and results won't be known until days after the voting; yet another wrinkle if we have a razor tight Prez or Congressional race. Finally, Denise says it's time NM had professional election administrators. "This is not something they teach in college, we need people on a career path. Hallelujah to that.

COUNT THOSE VOTES!

Down at ABQ's Government Center, Bernalillo County Clerk Mary Herrera, struggling with a record early and absentee vote, is now asking Lamb's boss, Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron, if she can start opening up the absentees inner envelope starting at one minute after midnight Election Day, instead of at 7 a.m. when the polls open. Mary says if she gets the OK she could get the critical absentees from the state's largest county counted by "one or two in the morning." That would be a big improvement from her earlier projection that those votes would not be counted until sometime on Wednesday.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty & NM Legislative Reports. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

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There seems to be a Prez poll for everyone this year. Kerry supporters were buoyed by the ARG survey yesterday showing their man two points ahead and now Bush backers are exulting over the five point spread they have over Kerry in the latest Mason-Dixon survey taken this week. Bush--49%, Kerry--44% and 6% undecided. (MOE +-4%) But five points sounds like a lot so we checked in with a couple of our polling experts. They raised questions about the Mason-Dixon results.

"The survey was not done from a list of registered NM voters. They called at random and then asked whomever answered if they were a registered voter and what party and ethnic group they belonged to. Obviously, there is more room for error with that method." Our polling pundit also questioned Mason-Dixon for only weighting the poll with 10% independents. "It should be around 14%, like it was in ARG." he said.

Summing up all recent polls, in ARG it's a two point Kerry lead, the ABQ Journal has a three point Kerry advantage, the Mason-Dixon has a five point Bush lead and Gallup with a three point Bush edge.

STILL KERRY

The Mason-Dixon survey has not shaken my belief that Kerry is currently leading here and is poised for a win in the 10,000 vote area. The key is his eight point lead in Bernalillo County in the Sanderoff/Journal survey. That's why Heather Wilson has been in a much tighter Congressional race this time with Richard Romero. The Prez must improve his standing in NM's largest county. But the Bush campaign apparently believes ABQ is gone and they must boost turnout in conservative rural areas. They could do it, but through the decades that has not been the case.

HE'S BACK

It could be his last visit to NM before Election Day and John Kerry will spend it with Native Americans in ABQ Tuesday. If they show up in force on Election Day, minority voters can easily push Kerry over the top here. But it's still an if. The Senator will also visit Las Cruces Saturday. The campaign hopes the two visits finally nail down stubborn New Mexico as much bigger battleground prizes are at stake back East. Kerry has visited plenty and pumped enough money in here. Now, it's up to Big Bill to marshall the organization and deliver the win.

LATE BREAKING: BUSH BACK

From the Las Cruces Sun-News: President Bush will return to southern New Mexico with a stop Sunday in Alamogordo, Otero County Republican Party officials announced Thursday. The exact time and place of Bush’s visit were still being determined Thursday.Tickets to attend the Alamogordo rally will be distributed from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. today and Saturday at the Otero County Fairgrounds ticket booth on a first-come, first-served basis. More than 10,000 tickets have been printed for the event.

KATE'S TAKE

In the final days of Campaign 04' we go to the first string. Kate Nelson, managing editor of the ABQ Tribune, has been there and done that, having covered every major state race since the late 80's. I asked her to give "NM Politics With Joe Monahan" readers an exclusive insider take.

What will the Wilson-Romero race turn on? "Sadly, it will turn on the effectiveness of negative campaigning. The two have spent next to no time illuminating their own positions. Voters are pretty disgusted. The other element at work is Kerry coattails. If he beats Bush by at least 5 points, that could push Romero close. I've been deeply disappointed. They're fundamentally decent human beings, but you couldn't tell it by their campaigns.

On the NM Prez battle--"It's looking good for Kerry. I haven't seen what Bush/Cheney are doing to reach undecideds; their NM events are so staged,strictly firing up the base. Kerry's Old Town morning a few months back was a stroke of genius. I wish we'd seen more of that from both campaigns--candidates getting the feel of a community.

Is gender playing a role in the NM campaign? "You mean, like, is THIS finally the year of the woman? Ha! I don't think so. There isn't an unusually large group of women candidates. Maybe it's just the year of the attack ad. Oh, wait, that was every other election, too.

Upsets in the legislature, etc.? "Maybe a few, but honestly, I hate to call races. I mean, would you bother watching the Lobos if you knew ahead of time that they were going to lose?

You're right Kate. Suspense is what makes our beloved game of La Politica worth playing and there's no shortage of that in the down-to-the-wire campaign of 2004.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty & NM Legislative Reports. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

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NM is turning out to be a hard sell for President Bush, and with just days to go, the political pros are starting to see a Kerry win in the wind and with it the state's five precious electoral voters. ARG surveyed from Oct. 16-18 and has Kerry at 48%, Bush at 46% and Nader at 1%. Kerry is winning the independents by six points in the survey. Combined with his Dems, that's enough to give him the win. The small undecided can also be expected to break Kerry's way.

The Zogby interactive poll again gives Kerry a huge NM lead; Kerry--54% Bush--44%. Zogby's Internet based survey has Kerry leading big in ABQ. The ABQ Journal poll at the beginning of the month had NM for Kerry by three points. Mason-Dixon updates today. Based on the polls, interviews with my experts, and traditional voting patterns I would expect Kerry to win New Mexico today by at least 10,000 votes. Of course, the election is not today and Bush continues to saturate the airwaves here. Also, E-Day weather could be a factor so stay tuned. For more of my take on the NM Prez race check out my interview with the San Diego Union-Tribune

MORE COUNTING WOES
Mary Herrera
It's more depressing than surprising. Bernalillo County appears poised for its umpteenth chaotic Election Night. First, clerk Mary Herrera said she won't be able to count all the absentee ballots until the day after the election, now she reports technical problems will also make counting the votes cast on Election Day problematic.

Instead of being able to feed the results from each precinct remotely via telephone lines, each of the 413 voting machine cartridges will have to be hand-delivered by sheriff's deputies to Government Center. Why? Because not all the cartridges are putting out the correct results. She will have to use one machine downtown to make sure all the cartridges are properly recorded. This is going to slow down the vote count considerably and is causing problems for Mary with the Secretary of State's office which is calling on her to hire more people to unseal the absentee ballots and to get the technical glitches fixed now.

The clerk also came under pressure from some Republicans Tuesday who endorsed Herrera's Green Party opponent, Steve Cabiedes. State Senators Carraro, Cravens and Adair were among them. Herrera is frequently mentioned as a possible Dem Sec. of State contender in 2004, but her hopes could be seriously impacted if ABQ has yet another fouled-up vote count. Big Bill's office says he is "reviewing' the situation in ABQ. Let's hope he acts as well.

HEATHER'S "INDEPENDENCE"

In her never-ending quest to show her "independence" hardcore R Heather Wilson has hit TV with an endorsement from GOP Arizona U.S. Senator John McCain who is perceived warmly by independent voters. But maybe not as warmly as he once was. McCain, who was pasted by Bush in the 2000 primaries, has been embracing the Prez this year. Nevertheless, Wilson is poised to win re-election with only the possiblity of a big turnout keeping her from closing the deal. If it skyrockets, Dem challenger Richard Romero might have a shot. Wilson's forces hope McCain's ad will help secure some of this year's numerous independent first-time voters.

It appears Heather will hit the $3 million mark in spending, while Richard will come close to $2 million. That would be the most she has ever spent since taking the seat in 98'. Big Bill will rally the troops for Richard at a rally at the Old Town Sheraton tonight.

RIO RANCHO ACTION

State Rep. Tom Swisstack says he is confident of victory, depsite GOP rumors that he is not working hard. "I have been door-to-door and working very hard," Swisstack retorts. Big Bill had a fundraiser for the Dem in the lean R district in Rio Rancho, NM that Tom carried by only three votes in 2000. Swisstacks R Rival, Glenn Walters retired USAF, has run a respectable effort, but former mayor Swisstack now has the incumbent label and is favored by the insiders.

PARK ANSWERS KATHY

Dem State Rep. Al Park was shut out by the ABQ Tribune when the paper endorsed his GOP opponent Kathy Leyendecker, but Park has answered with an endorsement from the ABQ Journal which backs the the attorney. "The energetic lawmaker has been the prime sponsor of 18 bills," the paper praised. Park and Leyendecker are locked in combat for his ABQ SE Heights seat which he has held since 2000.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty & NM Legislative Reports. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

Ryan
Is John Ryan's teenage criminal record played out? That's what they're asking in the ABQ North Valley-Corrales senate district after a screaming anti-Ryan piece from the Democratic Party made it to the mailboxes. Ryan's D opponent, John Hooker, supports the piece which points out Ryan's arrest for breaking into prominent Republican Shirley Leslie's house some 20 years ago. Ryan was pardoned by Governor Gary.

Ryan sent a partial disclosure letter to voters and Shirley is not actively campaigning against him. Neither is former GOP chairwoman Ramsay Gorham who has tangled with Ryan and who is giving up the seat after two terms. Also, Ryan had a big party for Republicans like Pete Domenici and Manuel Lujan recently. Ryan's backers say he has served himself well by not going ballistic over the inflated hit piece and are cautiously optimistic that he may have ridden out the storm.

Hooker is a strong contender, but the R's think he's too liberal for the R district and point out that Big Bill has not raised the flag for Hooker. He may need coattails from Kerry in this one. With a piece yelling convicted felon across the district, the race is just too volatile to call. Political history is on Ryan's side, while his personal history is not. Stay tuned.

CHENEY TO ANSWER KERRY

On the heels of John Kerry's announcement that he will visit Las Cruces Saturday comes word that VP Cheney will return to the state the very same day for a rally in Farmington. Both sides are staying away from the Big Duke City and the North, which are nailed down for the D's. They're fighting to get their base vote out. San Juan County has grown increasingly R in recent years and Cheney's visit is aimed at getting them out in big numbers.

Readers have asked how I see the intense Prez battle here. I see Kerry winning the state and if he doesn't' I don't think he will be elected nationally. NM has gone D three times in a row; the D's hold a huge registration advantage, a powerful governor working it for Kerry and a solid lead in Bernalillo County. It could still break Bush's way, but in your blogger's humble opinion he will need a news development or the old October surprise. Our final prediction in a week or so.

LOST IN LA POLITICA

Newcomer Janice Kando, seeking the ABQ Westside House seat occupied by Eric Youngberg, got a wake-up call to the political game this week. A pro-abortion PAC put out a mailer on her behalf. Trouble is, the group sent the piece to Senate District 23. Kando, a family doctor, is seeking election to House District 23! In a twist of irony, Senate #23 is represented by one of the most fervent anti-abortion advocates in the state, Joe Carraro. Freshman Republican Youngberg is favored in this one because the district is R and he has been active in the fight for Westside roads, a key issue. Kando is an attractive candidate for the D's, but her time may not have yet come.

STOP THE INSANITY!

Here's a new angle on getting out the vote that just might work. This one is hitting mailboxes: "Tired of the annoying political phone calls? When you vote early, ACT-NM will put you on our do-not call-list."

It seems the politicos know that over-saturated New Mexicans are losing patience with all the intrusions. ACT is a group supported by anti-Bush billionaire George Soros. I have even heard of people getting political calls on their cell phones, once sacred territory, but in this election they are tracking down voters like hunters in deer season. Be careful out there!

WE NEED YOU ON E NIGHT

Would you like to help bring Election Night resutls to NM? We need poll spotters for our KANW 89.1 FM coverage. You stake out the polls and give us the results direct from the site. It's fun as you tell the state the first results and get credit on the radio. E-mail me from the top of this page or give me a call at 505-243-4059 for details. We want folks statewide.

LINKING AWAY

Here's the Web site for State Supreme Court Justice Ed Chavez. His opponent is R Ned Fuller, whose site we posted a while back. If you want your candidate's link here, send it in.

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The feeding frenzy is underway. Just two weeks to go and the Alligators want blood. They don't want to wait until Election Day to find out who will take or lose power and they are now pounding the table on races statewide. Late-night phone calls and e-mails, anonymous and otherwise, insistently make their way to your faithful blogger who, fortunately, is ensconced in a high-rise hideout safe from the treacherous waters lurking below. But the frightful sounds of politicians fighting for their very lives as they are taken under by these Gators can not be ignored. A couple of those races today and more the rest of the week. Enjoy.

STATE HOUSE DEAN ENDANGERED?

"I am worried, very worried about Fred," reported an Alligator from Valencia County on the fortunes of State Rep. Fred Luna now the longest serving member in the NM House. "He is up against Jackie Farnsworth who almost knocked him off last time and she is working it again. You need to keep an eye on this race." We surely will. Farnsworth lost by just two points in 02,' as voters fretted over the stamina of the 73 year old Luna.

SNYDER OK?

Another Dem Valley Alligator, eyeing the action in the ABQ NE Heights State Senate contest between incumbent R Diane Snyder and D Chris Berkheimer, is calling it outright for Snyder. "I read your report that Berkheimer is getting around the district, but I think he is too activist and liberal for the area. She is a fit for the district. The R's are closing ranks behind her and I think she takes it again," said the Gator. Snyder won the endorsement of both ABQ newspapers, sometimes helpful, sometimes the "kiss of death."

VOTE COUNTING HELP?

Dem sources say the Guv may soon move to help Bernalillo County with its Election Night vote count. It will be Big Bill who will take the national heat if the county can't get its estimated 75,000 absentee votes counted in a timely fashion. Clerk Mary Herrera is saying it may take until the next day. That's not good enough. "If all she needs is more people to open absentee ballots, he can get them," said one Dem who said we should hear more soon as the Big Guy is in no mood to eat crow over NM foul-ups on national TV on E Night.

KERRY IN CRUCES

Las Cruces is the only major NM city Senator Kerry has not yet visited during this campaign but that will no longer be the case come Saturday. Big Bill will join Kerry in Cruces for a rally that a Dem insider says "gives us a chance to boost turnout in Dona Ana County. Turnout is always a problem there. This visit may help us change that." A Kerry visit just 10 days from E Day means we remain a battleground state, with Dems cautiously optimistic that a good turnout will get it for them, but the Prez still has a shot.

AG MADRID US AG?

NM Attorney General Madrid got an ego boost this week when U.S. News & World Report said she is on the short list for U.S. AG if Kerry wins. The wrinkle in the whisper is that Madrid is very tight with VP candidate Edwards and President's usually pick someone very close to them for the top law enforcement job.

OUR ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE

I will again anchor continuous Election Night coverage on KANW 89.1 FM in Albuquerque. It's my 30th year of calling elections and I will have the top experts by my side. We started with KANW back in 88' and have covered every major E night there since. This one will be one of the more memorable, so be sure to join me for the early results and the best analysis of NM politics anywhere.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM, one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

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A full-fledged frontal assault, largely unanswered, gave Congresswoman Heather Wilson a clear victory Sunday over Dem challenger Richard Romero in their only televised debate of the campaign. My expert insiders, both Dems and R's, say the victory was decisive enough that Romero, while not out of it, will need an extraordinary development to pull the upset.

"Wilson appeared nervous and ripe for the taking at the beginning of the contest, but after a few minutes she settled down and began hammering Romero and did not let up. He did not come back at her with anything near the intensity he needed. She also caught him in unanswered factual errors and showed her mastery of the subjects at hand," said one insider Dem who watched the action live on KOB-TV

The low point of the hour long debate for Romero, and there were several, came when he asked Wilson whether she would pledge to never support privatizing Social Security. She gave a one word answer: "Yes." Romero was dumbfounded and failed to point out that Wilson had taken the opposite position in a newspaper interview a couple of years ago. Instead, he was left mumbling how he was glad she was seeing the light. The audience chuckled.

The 43 year old Wilson was relentless in going after Romero over his state senate attendance record. Her charge that "he didn't show up for work" was heard time and again. Several of my Dem insiders said they jumped from their couches to yell back at her. But the man who needed to did not. Time and again she asserted her independence as she fought Romero's charge that she voted 90% of the time with the GOP. She did so effectively and he did not hold her feet to the fire, failing to give specific votes she had cast with the R's that hurt the district.

WHAT WASN'T SAID

"Richard had a golden opportunity to up end her. But she showed why she has been elected several times. She knows her stuff. If you are going to beat her, you better know yours," declared another of my insider debate watchers.

But it was not so much what the 60 year old Romero said as what he did not say, my analysts agreed. "He never hung Iraq and Bush's unpopularity around her neck. She is absolutely vulnerable on the war and he gave her a pass," said another depressed Dem.

Wilson showed shome chutzpah, which also went unchallenged, when she said with a sly smile that she has been so independent that some Dems on Capitol Hill have asked her to join their party! What Dems are those?? Romero never asked.

The debate itself was not a widely-watched event, but it was clear that Heather is deeply involved in her campaign, hitting the books and wants the job badly. That will now ripple through the community. Richard wants the job too. But, as I have written before, they are not handing out seats to the United States Congress. You've got to fight for it. Sunday it was Wilson who fought the hardest, carried the day and perhaps the election.

GARY OUT OF GAS?

The GOP Alligators (there's just a few of them) are gloating that southern NM Dem Congressional hopeful Gary King has run out of gas. "He's down to $37,000 in he bank," says our gleeful Gator. He notes that incumbent R Steve Pearce has 800,000 greenbacks stowed and that Gary seems to have fallen off of the tube. King weighed the possibility of running against Heather in ABQ, but decided to make the Pearce challenge, something he may now be thinking about.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM, one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

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As many as 75,000 absentee ballots will be cast in the General Election in Bernalillo County, but clerk Mary Herrera is already warning the state and nation that she may not be able to get them counted on Election Night. The looming debacle could set the state up yet again as the laughing stock of the nation, ala Florida, and is a shot across the bow to elected officials here who have refused to tackle the issue.

Herrera says because the absentee's are double sealed and she can't start opening them until the morning of the election, the results may not be available until 5 a.m. Wednesday or even later! We can only hope that Mary is lowering expectations and that some measures can be taken to prevent another chapter of vote counting disgraces from going into the history books.

Can't the County Commission and the Governor get together on this? Why can just about every other county in the nation report on Election Night but not ours? Don't believe the officials who say it's not important to have the vote tallied in a timely fashion. The longer the vote is delayed the more the public is suspicious and the legitimacy of the election, already hotly contested, will be called into question,

The NM Republican Party, in a ridiculous news release, states: "We understand the extra pressure Mary Herrera is under to determine which votes are fraudulent and which are legal." This has nothing to do with "fraud." It has everything to do with manpower, machines and counting capability. The GOP and the Democrats may be at each others throats during the campaign, but when the voting is over they have a responsibility to cooperate to protect the integrity of the democratic process. Will someone, anyone, in a position of authority step forward?

CAMPAIGN GAFFES

It's all Osama all the time in the cartoon-like race in the ABQ Congressional battle between incumbent R Heather Wilson and D challenger Richard Romero. And the contenders are stumbling. The Wilson team stuck their feet in the mud when they quoted the head of Sandia labs in one of its full-page newspaper ads and left the impression that he was endorsing Heather. He quickly stated that was not the case. Then Heather's team, too clever by half, challenged Romero to a debate on national security issues with all kinds of conditions. Romero rejected the debate, even though getting on any stage with her is a plus for him.

Now, Heather has trotted out the guy who brought her to the party in the first place, Senator Domenici. He strong-armed the GOP in 98' to have her replace the late Steve Schiff. Pete appears in the new Heather newspaper ad calling Romero's Osama ad on Heather outrageous. The previous quote from the Sandia Lab guy is gone. Heather, if you're going to go ballistic, don't get it right, get it perfect. Richard, you are the challenger. You accept a debate under any conditions, anytime, anywhere. Just ask John Kerry.

PARK STALLS WITH TRIB

Endorsements by the major state newspapers are somewhat predictable to those of us wrapped up in the game, but the ABQ Tribune did throw a curve this week when the normally liberal editorial page dissed State Rep. Al Park in favor of his GOP challenger Kathy Leyendecker. The pair is fighting for Park's ABQ SE Heights seat. Attorney Park has raised at least a 100 grand and is favored to keep the seat. But the snub by the Trib, even though friendly, raised eyebrows and gave Leyndecker's camp something to cheer about. We also note it because of Al's ambitions for the Attorney General's job in two years.

BLOGGING KNME-TV

Join me tonight (Friday) on KNME-TV at 8:30 p.m when I sit down with "In Focus" host Kate Nelson and other guests to talk NM politics. Several predictions are made so be sure to check it out.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM, one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

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They did it. Both Bush and Kerry got through three major Prez debates without committing a fatal error. Last night's finale lacked the surprise of the first, where Bush almost didn't show up and the aggressiveness of the second, where the duo were in each others faces. But with E Day so close both sides decided not to swing for the fences last night. Let's go out to the field and find out how this one played with my All-Star Debate Team

FIRST BASE

"It was a toss-up, but let's take the longer view. We have had three debates. Kerry started six points back. He's now even or a bit ahead. That's because, in total, he did a better job than Bush." That from veteran NM lobbyist and Dem Scott Scanland, who added: "Kerry made no major gaffes and came across presidential." So does that mean he is going to win, Scott? "No, but it does mean we have a horse race for the rest of the campaign. I do think we will have a clear winner. I think it will break toward the end and on Election Night we will know the winner."

SECOND BASE

From Tempe, AZ, scene of the action, Big Bill called it a "narrow win" for Kerry. "The President did do well. He was strong. Kerry increased his comfort level with the American people, especially undecided voters." What about Battleground New Mexico Bill? "The race is a dead heat. Kerry scored some in New Mexico tonight by talking about increasing the minimum-wage, health care and education."

Big Bill can't say who will win nationally. He is predicting a slight win for Kerry here and he is putting pressure on himself to bring it home. "Governor's have better organizations. Now it's up to mobilizing our vote," declared the Guv, forgoing the cheerleading as he occupied the no-spin zone

THIRD BASE

"Kerry was steady and Bush improved," is how the ABQ's Weekly Alibi Editor Tim McGivern saw it from the hot corner. "For the most part it was a tie. This was Bush's best performance. Kerry missed an opportunity to hammer him on fiscal policy and the growing debt. Because the debate was mainly on the economy and healthcare, it could end up benefiting Kerry overall. I think his momentum will slowly continue. Bush did nothing to slow it down. He did do good at damage control," offered Tim who said the race remains open.

CATCHER

Political strategist and ABQ legislative candidate Greg Payne (his opponent is D Michael Corwin) called it hands down for his man. "Bush all the way. It was his best. It put the President in a very strong position for the final weeks. He looked confident and relaxed and was all over Kerry's senate record."

Payne and other conservative R's were ballistic over Kerry mentioning that VP Cheney's daughter was a lesbian when questioned on gay marriage."It was a cynical move," said the charged up R," but he refrained from making the call. "It goes to the battleground states. We are still one of them."

SHORTSTOP

Longtime Dem politico and pollster Harry Pavlides has been nailing these debates. Following each one he has predicted here continued Kerry momentum and pinpointed the demographic groups to watch. He isn't changing his tune. He is the only one of our All-Stars who is inching toward a definitive prediction.

"Kerry played to the undecided middle where the election will be decided. This was a much narrower win for him than the others. But he systematically pandered to women, seniors and young voters, groups I think will decide this thing. Bush's appeal is too far-right. I disagree with his campaign on turnout assumptions. It will not just be each candidate's base vote. There are still undecideds. Many will vote and Kerry is the one playing to them. After tonight, Kerry's momentum and numbers will slowly continue to where he wins, barring a dramatic development." declared Pavlides who so far has been in the zone on this battle.

CENTER FIELD

Our senior player, R Kurt Lohbeck, has grown increasingly conservative as the debates have played out, telling us at the start of the series that it was Bush's to lose. "Bush won the debate. For the first time, he acted like he was in charge. But there were no knockout punches so now we have a neck and neck horse race," offered Kurt who has been calling the action for 40 plus years and knows these contests can be moving targets. Also, he assures the team that his wife Barbara's ballpark cry last night of "Kerry Won!" has nothing to do with his more cautious assessment. Hey, we believe you Kurt. Really.

CLEAN-UP BATTER

We turn to GOP wartime consultant Bruce Donisthorpe to make the final swing of the bat. "It was a minor win for Kerry. He has won all of them, but that does not necessarily mean he wins the game. There are other factors voters are weighing. Bush showed enthusiasm and vigor, but Kerry, strictly as a debater, wins. But in terms of values and what people believe, I think Bush won. Joe, there are intangibles here; likability, personality, the comfort factor. They are all things that people check before they make the decision. We are now in a horse race. This is going to be a long one with a sprint at the end."

The campaign vet agreed with the Alibi's McGivern that Kerry may have had an edge because the issues were traditionally Democrat; healthcare, education etc. "Most of the undecided are Dems and independents. The issues tonight appealed to them. But, I agree with the governor that the get-out-the-vote effort may be the deciding factor by the time this thing is all over," said the Bruce as he tried hard to keep his Republican blood from boiling too much as he donned his nonpartisan hat.

FROM THE BULLPEN

What a great experience it has been blogging these debates and bringing you the voices of these knowledgeable and behind-the scenes players who are rarely quoted in the press or media, but have willingly shared their years of experience. Their insights have been candid and sometimes profound. I'm sure you join me in tipping the Blog hat their way. Don't worry, I have all of them on stand-by to help me cover the final, frenzied days of Campaign 04' right here on www.joemonahan.com and on KANW 89.1 FM Election Night.

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Politics is breaking across our Enchanted Land at lightning speed. There seems to be something for everyone. Here's a few of the things that have caught my eye on my travels and in my conversations.

State Senator James Taylor, appointed to replace Manny Aragon to the seat in the ABQ South Valley, should be able to bring it home Election Night. But R Fernando C De Baca is no lay down candidate. Taylor will hold a Matanza over the weekend to rally support. There are two independent candidates on the ballot as well. Who will they help or hurt? Manny left to become Prez of NM Highlands University. He's probably glad he's gone, leaving Taylor to nail down the newly crafted district for the D's.

SOUTHERN ACTION

Dem State Rep. Andy Nunez is in a tough re-election battle in Dona Ana County against a well-known New Mexican. Mary Thompson is a former legislator. She ran for Lt. Governor years ago. It's a swing district. Nunez recently picked up the endorsement the Las Cruces Sun-News. Both candidates are well-respected.

POLLING BATTLE

ABQ Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff is the latest target of wild-swinging State Sen. "Lightning" Rod Adair of Roswell. The far-right lawmaker claims Sanderoff has become biased in his polling in recent years. Among a raft of charges, Adair claims that Sanderoff has been polling on Friday nights, a night he says most pollsters don't work because more Republicans than Democrats are out on Friday's. Sanderoff wonders if Rod has ever heard of call-backs. The pollster says if he comes up short with R's on Friday's, he calls back on Saturday to make sure the survey is balanced. Why didn't Rod think of that?

CAREEER SWITCH

Unsuccessful GOP ABQ East Mountain State Rep. candidate Mario Burgos has found a new line of work. He's in the advertising and PR game, having given up his position as head of Junior Achievement in NM. THe swisherburgos agency has offices in Florida and Santa Fe. Burgos ran a spirited race but was beaten by Kathy McCoy who was appointed State Rep. by Big bill when ron Godbey resigned the seat. She will get her own two year term in November.

FINAL TAKE

Back tomorrow with my All-Star Debate team as we watch the action between Kerry and Bush out of Tempe, AZ tonight.

Oops, almost forgot. The Zogby polling people tell us they will make a decision around October 23rd whether NM will be among the states in which they will conduct telephone tracking polls. If they do, we will have daily results right here.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM, one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Seeing an opening to break open the hotly contested ABQ Congressional race with Dem rival Richard Romero, Rep. Heather Wilson has launched a multimedia blitz against Romero's controversial TV ad linking her to terrorist Osama bin Laden.

The ad accuses Wilson of doing Osama a favor by voting against a bill that Romero's camp claims would have tightened airport cargo inspections.

Wilson's team, according to insiders, see the Romero ad as a major misstep and are trying to turn the tide by saying Romero hs gone over-the-top by showing bin Laden's photo with Heather in the same 30 second spot. Wilson is swamping the airwaves with a TV and radio response, full-page ads in ABQ newspapers, automated phone calls and mentions on her Web site. The ABQ Journal poll had Wilson just one point up. Seasoned vets give her maybe a two or three point edge, within the poll's margin of error.

"Heather has caught Romero with an ad she thinks will backfire; that it will be seen as unfairly questioning her patriotism and as an out-of-bounds move. They think they can use it to break the race open and make it the deciding factor," a deep insider Republican declared.

But an in-the-know supporter of Romero's says not so quick. "The ad is working. That's why we are seeing this blanket response. She voted wrong and the ad nails her. I do wonder how her counterattack is playing with the public. The polls will tell us." Said our Romero tracker.

We will check around for any tracking polls on this one. The next Journal poll doesn't hit until the end of the month.

From this corner, the Romero ad crosses the line a bit, but then Heather's ad (GOP sponsored) claiming Richard is not tough on child molesters also pushes the envelope. Showing bin Laden's picture heightened the emotional nature of the contest, but the ad does not seem to be a clear-cut backfire. The Wilson camp will have to continue to work hard to make it the inflection point of Campaign 04'.

STATE SENATE WATCH

Put ABQ NE Heights State Senator Diane Snyder on your radar. Insiders on both sids of the aisle are telling me that her Dem opponent, Chris Berkheimer, is working this one hard and that Snyder, because of health issues, is unable to walk the district, but is otherwise able to campaign. Berkheimer worked in the NM Dep't of Homeland Security and is seen as an up and comer who Big Bill and the party are helping. But the district does lean R and freshman Snyder's support within her own party seems solid. She received the endorsement of an NE Heights neighborhood alliance which endorsed a bunch of other R candidates as well.

CNN AND ME

After hyping a planned Monday appearance on CNN, wouldn't you know we got bumped at the last minute. The death of actor Christopher Reeve had the CNN producers in Santa Fe rearranging programming and yours truly, along with KKOB radio talker Jim Villanucci, fell by the wayside. They could do without me, but if there's anything this campaign needs it's a dose of humor that Jim can provide.

Big Bill did appear (who would dare bump him!) and had some solid analysis. He said the NM Prez race is coming down to a turnout battle. He pointed out 10,000 new Native American voters have ben registered this cycle. They have not voted much in the past. This time the D's hope to boost the turnout in this group that is nearly 85% Dem. The Guv did predict a NM Kerry win, but said it would be by "only one or two" points. It is a close race here and I don't think the Big Guy was just trying to keep the D's motivated.

Besides missing out on my gifted analysis, CNN had their troubles during their Santa Fe stay. The network lost its satellite signal from the Plaza throwing "Inside Politics" off the air for a time. The good news for CNN: Villanucci and I won't bill them for all the free PR we gave them.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM, one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Want to advertise to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author