The hyper-negative campaign for the ABQ Congressional seat took a slight turn in the opposite direction Wednesday as GOP incumbent Congresswoman Heather Wilson unveiled a spot touting her commitment to education. It was a rare break from an unrelenting negative battering both Wilson and her Dem challenger Richard Romero have subjected the electorate to for the past two weeks.

The one positive Wilson ad (she is still hammering with other ads) came just hours after the release of the ABQ Journal poll showing Romero just one point behind and partisan tracking polls, according to my deep insiders, showing her two or three points ahead on any given night.

"Heather is now moving to persuade the undecided. She has necessarily played with fire with this negative stream and is now getting some positive out. It's the right time," commented a knowledgeable R.

The positive spot also comes just as the major TV stations are taking notice of the hate fest going on here and are running reports--KOB-TV did one last night--on the ugly tone of the contest.

RESPECTED, NOT LIKED?

The psychological impact of the Journal poll has been good news for Romero who was clobbered by Wilson two years ago and can use the numbers to raise money.

"The Congresswoman is not especially liked, but she is respected. She has only so much negative rope to burn and some of us think she should avoid all-out nuclear warfare. She needs to ride this thing out, not overreact. A positive mix is the right call," said another R with lengthy Congressional campaign experience

And what about Romero's fans? They like what they see, but also think he must come with a positive vision soon that shows his ties to the area and his public service. "The undecided are open to his message too," said one.

But he may not be ready to go there yet. He is behind. His new ad shows a photo of Osama bin Laden and accuses Wilson of making air travel unsafe by voting against cargo inspections. And Wilson is claiming Romero isn't tough enough on child molesters! Ugh. Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico are just going to have to rely on their remote controls to find relief from this withering barrage. Balloon Fiesta anyone?

BEAUTY MEETS THE CAMPAIGN BEAST

There will be some relief from the ugliness of the Congressional campaign today. First Daughter Jenna Bush (she's the blonde) comes to ABQ to cheer on the Bush locals at their headquarters and show a decidedly softer side sorely missing in Campaign 04'. Even John Kerry smiles at the mention of the mischievous and down-home 22 year old glamour twins. (Sister Barbara is not making this trip). Maybe Heather can use Jenna and Barbara for a couple of her TV spots and Richard can use Kerry's equally attractive daughters, Vanessa and Alexandra, in some of his. Now that's a negative campaign that would be easy on the eyes.

By the way, Jenna's Prez dad will be back in NM Monday making a stop in Hobbs.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Home sweet home. New Mexico Democrats are back on the Kerry ranch and giving him a three point lead over the Prez in the latest ABQ Journal poll. The survey has it 46-43 for Kerry with 2% for Nader, 1% for Libertarian Michal Badnarik and 8% undecided. Kerry has gone from a three point deficit in the last Journal poll to today's three point lead. Veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff reports that Kerry's debate performance was the clincher. "Bush has dropped to 17% support among Democrats, compared to 24% in our last poll." Fifty-seven per cent of those surveyed say Bush beat Kerry in their first debate and that explains the move. "Bush is actually increasing his Republican support, but this debate solidified the Democrats." said Brian, while also pointing out that ABQ is coming in solidly for Kerry.

The only remaining question is will the D's stay home, or spend another night out on the town with Bush? Much will depend on news developments outside the campaign and whether Kerry makes a big mistake. From this corner, we are back where we started; Kerry is positioned to win this Democratic leaning state and its five precious electoral votes. The Bushies need to keep the heat on and hope for the fumble.

FLUFF VS. GRUFF; THE VEEP DEBATE

I rounded up my All-Star Debate Team last night for the big VP debate and their opinions covered all the bases. We go out to the field.

FIRST BASE

Top NM Lobbyist and veteran Dem Scott Scanland told me: "For the most part it was a push, but advantage Cheney. He hit a three pointer from half-court when he nailed Edards for a poor Senate voting record. But Edwards did not pout and moved on. Edwards seemed very scripted. I think this debate gave the R' a bit of a shot in the arm."

SECOND BASE

Dem Caroline Burkle, staffer with AG Madrid, a friend of Edwards', was lucky enough to attend the debate in person with her boss. No surprise, she scored it for Edwards in a late night cellphone call from what she called a "freezing Cleveland."

"I don't know how it looked on TV but to us it appeared John really got under Cheney's skin when he hit him on Iraq. He looked a bit intolerant." I asked her about the scene inside the debate hall. "It was a modified gym. It was surprising how small it was. Only 210 people were there. Caroline also did some star gazing: "Jesse Jackson, former Senator Alan Simpson and Vernon Jordan were right near us. Patricia sat behind Edwards' family in the second row," wrapped up Caroline from the cool climes of Cleveland.

THIRD BASE

Pollster Brian Sanderoff told me Cheney dominated this outing: "VP Cheney adeptly defended his positions without appearing defensive. He was strong and authoritative and exhibited a quiet confidence. The debate format played to Cheney's strength.

"Senator Edwards chose to substitute his positive, upbeat, populous style with a more hard hitting approach. He served his role as the primary cheerleader for Kerry. When Edwards landed a verbal jab, Cheney would counter punch without hesitation. He seemed a little anxious in his debating style,"
declared Brian who is also tracking the action for KOAT-TV

CATCHER

The GOP's Kurt Lohbeck called it hands down for his man. "Cheney ate his lunch. He was a plodding machine armed with facts and figures. This contrasted with Edwards' inexperience.
Edwards was not as focused as Cheney and that's why Cheney won," said the veteran player at it since the 1950's.

LEFT FIELD

Longtime NM radio talk show host and Dem Mike Santullo, in the game for 35 years, called it a draw. "Both men were skilled and well-informed, and both stayed on message. Cheney had gravitas and scored when he forced Edwards to defend his Iraq statements. Edwards scored big when he nailed Cheney on Halliburton. Cheney comes across solid. He's a skilled and worthy opponent," commented the talker and political junkie.

RIGHT FIELD

Dem activist and Pollster Harry Pavlides was a lone voice on the team calling it a win for Edwards. But he had some solid reasoning worth considering. "This thing is about the undecided voters. Edwards appealed directly to them on healthcare and taxes. Yes, Cheney did a good job, but he turned on the Republican base. Edwards' message had broader appeal and I think he picked up votes. That's why I score it for him," said Pavlides who cast his first Prez vote for George McGovern.

CENTER FIELD

Republican strategist Greg Payne gave it to Cheney saying the VP "reinforced the notion that the Bush administration is made up of some very capable professionals. He showed that they have gone through some very tumultuous times in a very steady way. The best line was when Cheney asked how you can expect Kerry and Edwards to fight a war when they folded under the pressure of Howard Dean in the primaries. But Payne agreed with Pavlides that Cheney appealed mainly to the Republican base. As for Edwards," He was smooth, very smooth like a good lawyer," opined the opinionated Payne

CLEAN UP

Green Steve Cabiedes: "It was a tie. Edwards was very well-prepared on Iraq. Cheney is much cooler and more straight forward then Bush." I asked if any votes were shaken out as a result of last night's face-off. "If you were a Republican leaning person it reinforced your viewpoint," he offered in a late night analysis as the phone lines finally started to cool off.

THANKS ALL-STARS

Thanks to My All-Star Debate Team for their insights. They are with you during this critical month of October, collectively offering experience and insight that can be gained only on the playing field and from being exposed, for better or worse, to the harsh lights of our beloved La Polticia.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

One of the most contentious voter registration drives in NM history is over at 5 p.m. today and the final numbers are going to put us at over 1,030,000
registered voters in a state that falls short of the 2 million population mark. The frenzied registration efforts ended up adding a boatload of voters who identify themselves as independents, many of them coming aboard for the first time because of the Iraq war. But will the 100 thousand plus new voters over 2000 actually take the trouble to go the polls? They have not in the past. Even if they don't, veteran voters will be out in droves because of the high stakes Prez race. I think turnout will easily top 62% of the registered and will have more educated guesses as we get closer.

BILL OR BUSH?

Here's another important election number. Unemployment in the state is at 5.4%. That's way down from last August's 6.6% rate. It's an interesting situation with the Dems praising NM's Big Bill for the improvement and at the same time slamming Bush for doing a lousy job on the economy. Which is it?

HEATHER HARNESSED

Romero
Heather's feathers are sure to be ruffled by the latest ABQ Journal poll showing her in a nip and tuck battle with Dem challenger Richard Romero. Pollster Brian Sanderoff puts it at 45% for incumbent GOP Congresswoman Wilson and 44% for Romero. With the margin of error the race could be flat, but Sanderoff told me: "It has narrowed, not because of gains by Richard, but because of drops by Heather. Running a hard hitting campaign has its benefits and costs. Heather has lost a sizable portion of the liberals who supported her (from 21% to 13%)."

Heather is still way ahead with her most important voters: seniors. Undecided went up a few points as well, a natural given the unrelenting negative tone of the contest. Romero may be able to raise some money off of this one, but still must make the sale of himself before it's all over. Seniors are still with Heather, a number to watch as we go along. It has been a major reason for her past victories.

However close the race is it's apparently not close enough to draw Heather out and onto the debate stage of KOAT-TV, Channel 7. According to the Romero campaign,(Heather's camp did not comment to me) she has nixed that scheduled October 24 face-off with Romero, but will debate him on KOB-TV October 17. Trouble is, that debate is at 4 in the afternoon, hardly prime-time. Unfortunately, voters won't get to see much of these two going toe-to-toe. Instead, were stuck with a deluge of apocalyptic 30 second spots from both sides, generating a whole lot more heat than light.

LINKS AWAY

We continue to link to the NM candidate web sites. Our latest is Republican attorney Ned Fuller who is challenging incumbent State Supreme court Justice Edward Chavez. Send us your site and we will get it posted here.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Moderate Republicans. Remember them? While the Prez polls at 90% among NM R's, not all are enthusiastic. Some have signed up for a group called Mainstream 2004. These R's are urging the Prez to take a more flexible approach to Iraq and do something about ballooning budget deficits. ABQ GOP lawyer and enviornmentalist James Scarantino is President of the NM group and longtime middle of the road R, former NM Governor Dave Cargo, is a prominent member.

Another member, John Eisenhower, son of former Prez Dwight Eisenhower, has gone as far as endorsing Kerry. Cargo and Scarantino haven't done that, but their parting of the ways with Bush policies shows that the long dormant split in the GOP between its moderate and right wings is at least smoldering. The group emailed the Eisenhower endorsement to 17,000 NM R's.

Long ago, Sen. Pete Domenici battled with the right-wing forces of Ronald Reagan, but that was then. It is in moderate ABQ where Bush is having some trouble and where Al Gore beat him four years ago by 4,000 votes. Perhaps the Bushies should keep that in mind before they get too upset with these "Mainstream Republicans."

LIKING WHAT THEY SEE

Several Dem enthusiasts are buoyed by Dem Congressional candidate Richard Romero's latest TV ad. Romero has been hammering away that GOP incumbent Heather Wilson votes with the GOP Congressional leadership 90% of the time. But that spot didn't really deliver, failing to mention just how that hurts anyone. The latest spot takes it a step further accusing Wilson of specifically voting against importing cheaper prescription drugs from Canada. "They could draw blood with that one," offered one of the Dems.

Meanwhile, Wilson has gone ballistic against Romero on TV, radio and direct mail. The race is not going to be a ten pointer for Heather like last time and it's becoming clear that her internal polling is showing Romero still in the game. It traditionally breaks her way at the end, but like Kerry with Bush, Romero's stepped up attack has given him more time to fight.

THE LATEST NUMBERS

Brian Sanderoff of Research & Polling was in the field for the ABQ Journal over the weekend and will have fresh Prez numbers plus the Congressional races in a survey that should be released midweek. This will be Sanderoff’s first NM poll since the Prez debate and since the Wilson-Romero duel went hyper-negative. We will have the numbers as soon as they are released.

OLD HAND, NEW CAMPAIGN

Democrat Gary King may not have as much campaign money as GOP U.S. Rep Steve Pearce, who he is challenging down south this year, but he does have a top campaign pro. Francisco Castillo, fresh from the Howard Dean for Prez campaign in NM, has signed on as a consultant to King. Castillo, from Texas, is a grass--roots specialist and an operative who has also worked for Big Bill.

THE SUPREMES

We wrote last week about the NM Supreme Court races and mentioned that there had been no R elected to the panel since the 1980's. That's true. But a legal beagle tells us there was an R who was appointed to the court by Governor Johnson in the 90's, but chose not to run for election. The R, according to our legal eye, was Paul Kennedy of ABQ. I remember a hundred years ago when Paul ran for AG as a sacrifical lamb for the GOP, but his high court service drew a blank. Thanks to our readers our blanks are soon filled.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

John Kerry won an unanimous decision from our All-Star Debate Team last night, not a knockout by any means, but enough of a score to keep this thing going to the late innings. The central theme that emerged in the post-debate interviews was that Kerry "lived to fight another day," something that was in question on the eve of the showdown. Let's go out to the field now for the play-by-play

FIRST BASE

"Kerry won the debate," top NM lobbyist and Democrat Scott Scanland reported just one minute after the end. "He looked strong and resolute. I think his performance puts the race back in play." Scanland told us before the face-off that the burden was on Kerry, but Bush helped him. "I think Bush was challenged in the articulation department. Kerry will get a bump in the polls," offered up Scanland who agreed the final two debates will take on added importance and be watched more than previously expected. "The race cannot be called yet," was his final thought.

SECOND BASE

Republican strategist and ex-ABQ city councilor Greg Payne was one of several Republicans immediately conceding that Kerry won. He beat Scanland with the call, chiming in just 30 seconds after the sign-off. "It was do or die and Kerry did," declared Payne. "I don't think Bush brought his best game to the debate. A telling point was that he wanted to react more in those 30 second extensions than Kerry did. It's never a good sign when you are on the defensive. It was a clear sign that Kerry was getting under his skin. We are on the trajectory for a repeat of 2000, a very tight race," concluded Payne.

THIRD BASE

Green Steve Cabiedes said the main point of last night was that "Bush did not put the final nail in the Kerry coffin. He was clearly on the defensive. Kerry did not come across as a flip-flopper; he finally had clarity. Bush did not seem comfortable in the format and he seemed redundant. I suspect the next debate will be a lot hotter because it will be on domestic issues and those traditionally favor the Democrats.
This was Bush's best chance to take Kerry out, but he couldn't deliver," analyzed the political junkie.

CATCHER

ABQ Tribune political writer Shea Andersen scored it for Kerry because "he was smooth and brought information to every answer. Compared to the President, Kerry looked as though he was having a good time. Bush looked angry and frustrated and seemed to run out of things to say." But Andersen made an important point when he wondered aloud whether Kerry had made "an emotional connection" with the audience, something perhaps as important as winning debating points. "I talked with an undecided Republican after the debate who told me he still doesn't like Kerry but was 'severely disappointed' in Bush. Shea's final point was on the spin. "Will the Republicans cut a bunch of TV ads about the debate to squash the spin that Kerry has won?" mused the scribe as he returned to the action.

SHORT STOP

Republican Kurt Lohbeck, a battle-scarred political vet, was more sanguine about the Bush performance, although he agreed Kerry won it on points. "But I don't think he drew the blood he needed to."

Lohbeck previously said Kerry needed to make Bush go 'slackjawed.' "He did not hurt the President and he needed to do that to move his campaign forward." But Lohbeck has differed with other Republicans that the race was Bush's to lose. "I thought the race was close going in and is still close, but Kerry is behind." Lohbeck says all the water has been pumped out of the Iraq well for Kerry and he needs to move on. "The American people are not going to abandon their chief in a time of war. Kerry now needs to focus on the economy. It's his last, best chance," commented Lohbeck who played Prez politics with R candidate Pat Buchanan

CLEAN-UP BATTER

We leave the clean-up to the GOP's Bruce Donisthorpe who has the uncanny ability to be nonpartisan on matters of campaign tactics. "I don't think this will be viewed as a definitive campaign event. Kerry won because he landed a few more punches and because he lives to fight another day. The debate was essentially over after the first half-hour. I think Bush was expecting more questions on other foreign policy topics because he seemed to run out of gas on Iraq." Donisthorpe, like Lohbeck, does not see Bush far ahead in the race, but does see him in the lead. "The race is going to tighten, but I believed that before the debate."

I asked Bruce if he thought the Bush team may have been outfoxed a bit by agreeing to three debates, rather than two. "Certainly, the next two debates are going to be watched much more because Bush did not put him away tonight," he answered. "

Thanks to my entire team of Debate All-Stars the past two days. All of those above, plus pollster Brian Sanderoff, the Weekly Alibi's Tim McGivern and Democrat Harry Pavlides. Stay with us for the final month of Campaign 04'. We will cover it like a wet blanket.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author