Eric Griego
Spend all you like. That's the message from the Supremes in D.C. The high court washed its hands of the ABQ spending caps case Monday letting a lower court ruling stand. That means candidates for Mayor and City Council in the state's largest city can spend and raise as much as they want. There are still limits on how much you can contribute to a contender, about $450.00 for City Council and about four grand for Mayor.

In 01' Dem Rick Homans, now working for Big Bill and a party to the suit challenging the spending limits, (ex-City Council candidate Sander Rue was another challenger, spent well north of half a million for the Mayor's job and lost. He is not expected to run again. Insiders say the ante to get in the Mayor game this time around is $200,000 with the top spender perhaps hitting the half-million mark.

The next city election is in October 2005, just ten months away, so interest is picking up a bit. The latest from the campaign trail has City Councilor Eric Griego becoming the first official candidate on December 12th at a party at the historic La Posada downtown. Griego will work to build all-important name ID in the days ahead.

The talk is also heating up about Judith Espinosa, former NM Transportation Department Secretary under Governor Anaya and currently the director of the Alliance for Transportation Research Institute at UNM. Espinosa shares Griego's liberal politics and her entry could pose a problem for him. Her entry would also mean three Hispanic contenders so far, including Mayor Marty. The Anglo Republican field is wide open, but.....

WINTER WARMING UP?

City Councilor Brad Winter has also made a bit of noise about running. With no GOP NE Heights candidate in the contest yet, a bid must appear tempting. The Hispanics could split the Valley and a good chunk of the Westside. Also, unlike Griego, Winter would not have to give up his council seat to make the run.

Finally, there is Margaret Aragon de Chavez, ex-wife of Mayor Marty, who flatly refused to rule out a mayoral candidacy of her own in a recent interview with KOAT-TV. She deemed it unlikely, but sent a message that she will be a presence in the race, one way or the other.

MORE PREZ POST-MORTEM

There's plenty of onion to peel when it comes to the outcome of the NM prez race. AP Santa Fe Bureau Chief Barry Massey has another go at it as he looks at how first-time voters cast their ballots. They were to be the savior of Kerry here, but it was not to be with Massey's analysis of the exit polls revealing that Kerry won the newcomers by only two points.

OF NOTE

Sam Montoya, a veteran NM politico whose last posting was as executive director of the NM Association of Counties in Santa Fe, died unexpectedly last week of a heart attack while at work in his office. He was in his early 50's and had undergone heart surgery recently. Previously he worked for the NM Municipal League and was well-known among government officials across NM. Montoya was laid to rest Monday.

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What is the key dynamic in post-election new Mexico? The new legislative leadership? Big Bill's standing? How about the price of oil? That one gets my vote as I talk with political insiders, journalists and lobbyists who still subscribe to that old adage: "Follow the money." The oldtimers among the group marvel at the near fifty bucks a barrel the black gold is fetching and they worry about a price collapse. Oil prices are notoriously volatile. Back in the 80's the price slid into the mid-teens, wreaking havoc in NM.

"Just how much money is being committed to ongoing government expenses based on all this oil money flooding in to Santa Fe? What happens if we go back to $20 a barrel?" Asks one longtime Roundhouse wall-leaner.

Good point. The state Medicaid program has been munching thru additional millions each year. But we've been able to fund it as tax collections skyrocket. What impact would a declining oil price have on the program and others? Will Big Bill and his budget minions be quizzed on that before the next spending spree starts in Santa Fe in January?

MICKEY'S RECESSION

The semi-surprise defeat of Rep. Dan Foley at the hands of Terry Marquardt for the position of State House Minority Whip has them talking about the status of the so-called Barnett wing of the GOP. You may recall that Mickey Barnett, an attorney and lobbyist, was defeated earlier this year when he sought re-election as Republican National Committeeman. That after Barnett fielded several opponents against sitting GOP legislators. Now, insiders say, Barnett's backing of Foley may have played a role in the Roswell lawmakers defeat. "Barnett has been slowly losing his sway over legislators, but still has a network of operatives at the campaign level," said one insider R. But with the departure of Minority Whip Thompson, a Barnett acolyte, and the Foley defeat, the fear factor among R lawmakers when it comes to Barnett & Co. seems to be receding into history.

CATHOLICS SWING BACK

Not surprisingly, our report (Nov. 22) on the involvement of the Catholic Church and NM Archbishop Sheehan in the Prez campaign had our mail bag bulging. We covered the critics point of view in that first report. Here's the other side of the coin from our emailers, beginning with former top NM Congressional aide Jack Daum:

"Sheehan, the Church and the biblical stance on both infanticide and homosexual marriage have all been around much longer than Silly Billy and might even survive both the blogmugging and Billy's bluster," blazed Daum.

David Balz, a thoughtful Catholic writer, had the best defense of the Church's politics:

"Catholics are free to make prudential judgments on the best means to help the poor, protect the environment, etc. They are not free to publicly oppose Church teaching on inviolate moral issues and lead others into sin, without facing public consequences. The Church and her bishops were not playing politics. They were warning Kerry, and others who look up to him, that they risked their souls by supporting abortion. That warning was long overdue and apparently clear enough that a significant number of Catholics who would normally vote for the Democrat, failed to do so this time--costing Kerry the win.

Were some Bishops out campaigning for Bush? A few, sure, but certainly a lot less than have campaigned for Democrats in the past. As citizens, the priests and bishops are free to do so. Are they not?" penned Balz.

Finally, another Catholic emailer claimed priests were not just urging a vote against Kerry in one-on-one talks but said he knew of at least two instances where they made their views know directly from the pulpit. Thanks for all the comments which are always welcome at jmonahan@ix.netcom.com

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Giving thanks comes easy to New Mexicans. Sure, the difficulties our Enchanted Land faces sometimes appear so deeply ingrained that they defy solution. But the balance sheet is evened out by a stunning natural space that invites daily reflection and slows the passage of time just enough for daily life to be savored, not devoured. It's a gift that all political persuasions share and tempers the rancor that is a natural part of the political game. New Mexicans take their politics seriously, but the backdrop of this wondrous, ancient place soothes the wounds of battle and tugs at us to take the long view.

New Mexico, with all its mystique and wide-open spaces, can seem daunting to the newcomer. But spend any time here and the mystery becomes a delight and the space an invitation to explore the world around you and yourself. In the end, New Mexico is about that most basic and enduring American value: Freedom. Happy Thanksgiving.

CANTWELL'S THANKSGIVING

Veteran NM newsman and columnist Ned Cantwell can't help but speculate on some possible Thanksgiving Day messages from our state's top politicos. He lets it rip in this missive from the Ruidoso News. Enjoy.

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It’s only on rare occasions that I depart from covering and commenting on the world of New Mexico politics. This is one of those occasions.

I was nine years old. We had one black and white TV capable of receiving only one channel. It was the CBS affiliate out of Binghamton, NY. It was November 1963. "We have a report that President Kennedy is dead," intones legend Walter Cronkite. And he attributes the news to "our Man in Dallas." That man, Dan Rather, would become the embodiment of American journalism and, like some of you, I traveled a lifetime with him. I never lost faith in Rather because I knew where he came from and what he was made of.

No one was more disappointed when the recent Bush National Guard story blew up in Dan's face. But my disappointment was greater when I heard the arch-conservative 20 and 30 something's pan Rather as a biased left-winger out to destroy Republicans. One mistake can not and will not undo a lifetime of adhering to the highest standards, of risking your "political capital," as President Bush might say, in pursuit of the truth and in defense of a free nation's right to hear that truth.

THEY DON'T REMEMBER

The swashbuckling youth of the hard-right don't remember Rather on the frontlines in Vietnam aggressively reporting a war that would bring down a Dem President. They don't remember Chicago 68' and the Democratic National Convention when Rather was dragged out of the hall for his no-holds-barred reporting. They don't remember when conservative CBS affiliates stood behind Rather when he faced-off with President Nixon in 74'. They don't remember, but I do and they are great memories of a great American journalist. I know. Its a fast-food country and you are only as good as your last story. That may be the fact, but as Rather might say, that's not the truth.

"Dan Rather was the most, competent professional reporter I have ever met. He never even hinted to me to put a political spin on a story," remarked former journalist and lifelong NM conservative Republican Kurt Lohbeck in a late night cell call from a business trip in Los Angeles. "There are people who say they are happy to see him leave, but they are going to wish he was back in that anchor chair in the years ahead," said Lohbeck who reported from war-torn Afghanistan for CBS News in the early 80's.

Maybe Kurt's right. But if you never ate steak, hamburger is pretty damn good. I could go on. About the Rather work ethic, the ultra-competitive spirit that made him tops in his field, or even about his strange "Ratherisms." But that's best left to others. What Rather gave my generation was a place to put our trust, an example to aspire to. In who do the hard-right 20 and 30 something Rather-haters place their trust? Who inspires them? The in-house Fox News Channel? Hate Radio?

They will fidget when reading this. They may smirk at the relevance of times gone by. But they will miss Dan Rather. They just don’t know it.....yet.

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Bingaman
The guessing game continues over the political future of veteran NM Dem U.S. Senator jeff Bingaman, with insiders anxiously awaiting definite word on whether Jeff will seek a fifth, six year term in 06.' He is taking his time making up his mind and there are mixed signals. Take his recent statement to KRWG-FM Radio in Las Cruces: "I have got to decide sometime next Spring whether I will seek an additional term and I have not made that decision."

But Bingaman will hold a mid-December fundraiser, sparking speculation that he is indeed going to hit the campaign trail, even though he is unhappy that the Dems are now outnumbered in the Senate 55-45. The Silver City native has only a couple of hundred grand in his campaign kitty, hardly any by modern standards, but the R's apparently have no strong candidates waiting in the wings to take on the former NM attorney general and Harvard grad. State Rep. Dan Foley has ben mentioned as a possible, but his hard-right politics do not put fear into the hearts of the D's.

WAITING WANNA BE'S

People close to the Senator will tell you that he traditionally does not rush his announcement decisions, but times have changed and his word is much more anticipated this time as all hell will break loose if he decides it's time to retire. You could expect Rep. Tom Udall from the North to seek the seat and perhaps one or even both of the state's two R U.S. House members. Then there's Big Bill, who would also be tempted to take a look. Imagine the political chess game to fill all those chairs!

Bingaman's most appealing attribute to New Mexicans has been his low-key, but attentive approach. Recently, some have commented that the senator does not seem as engaged as in years past. Perhaps being in the minority has contributed to the sense of lethargy. However, no one is doubting his political prowess or appeal, just his intensity. Stay tuned.

LIBERAL IN SANTA FE

Franken
Santa Fe County should be fertile ground for the new liberal Air America Network, featuring comic/lefty Al Franken and company. The format debuted in ABQ on KABQ AM 1350 a few months ago (too early to tell how it's doing in the ratings) and now the City Different will get a chance to lend an ear.

Steve Terrell of the New Mexican reports: "Conservative Republicans might control the White House, Congress and the Supreme Court, but the right-wing dominance of a local talk-radio station is about to end as the unabashedly liberal Air America network readies to start broadcasting at KTRC 1260 AM in Santa Fe.

"Santa Fe is a natural for us," said Jon Sinton, president of Air America, in a telephone interview. "We're very excited."

Air America broadcasts on more than 40 stations and two satellite networks. In Santa Fe County, Democrats outnumber Republicans 3-to-1. Democrat John Kerry got more than 70 percent of the vote against President Bush earlier this month.

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Sheehan
There's a decidedly right-leaning approach being voiced by New Mexico Catholic Archbishop Michael Sheehan and it has some wondering if he took his lessons from the old line party bosses of the past. The eyebrow raiser was the the announcement that Catholic bishops, including Sheehan, would join in an unprecedented alliance with evangelical and other conservative churches to fight gay marriage and legalized abortion.

All this comes on the heels of criticism of the NM Catholic Church for spreading poison on Catholic Kerry for his pro-abortion stance. Some think it was a key reason many Dem Hispanics in the North stayed away from the polls and cost Kerry the state. "It's not that the priests were hitting Kerry from the pulpit, but they were out in the parking lots working the parishioners and allowing literature to be handed out on church grounds," said one informed Hispanic Catholic and politico.

Sheehan's "alliance" with evangelicals is drawing fire from critics who are asking where the religious leader is on the war in Iraq and on the Pope's repeated criticism of materialism run riot, while the poor around the world and in NM grow even poorer. "Those are issues that many Catholics want to see Sheehan address, but it seems he is being pulled further to the right," opined our politico.

CRITICS CONFESSIONAL

Other critics, wounded by the election results, boldly snap that Sheehan should be concerning himself with the seemingly never-ending epidemic of pedophile priests that has infected the state, rather than trying to influence election results.

The Archbishop split hairs with the critics recently when he said: "We make a distinction between having a voice on one hand and promoting candidates or political parties on the other. We stick to issues; we don't endorse candidates."

But how do you separate the two? Sheehan may own the crowd Sunday morning but he has strayed from safe turf and is now out on the streets in the hardball world of La Politica where his move to embrace the evangelicals is seen by some politicos as a cynical way of shoring up his own vote count: sagging numbers of Catholics.

One wonders what the newly emboldened and evangelical sympathizing Sheehan will do as Big Bill's Dem Prez campaign progresses. Will the church again shoot down a Catholic who believes in a woman's right to choose? If the patrons of New Mexico's past were still with us they just might call Bishop Sheehan one of their own.

HEATHER AND THE HAMMER

Heather Wilson may have crushed Dem Richard Romero to retain her ABQ Congressional seat, but Romero's aggressive challenge is keeping her honest. Wilson, who fought charges during the campaign that she was a lackey of the conservative House leadership, did not join fellow R's recently when they overturned a rule that would have kicked Tom "The Hammer" Delay out of the House Majority Leader post upon any court indictment.

Wilson's statement is for her future protection from the lackey charge. Delay is under investigation for campaign finance activities in Texas. The new House rule allows him to stay in the leadership even if he is indicted by a state grand jury.

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The loss of New Mexico to Bush is taking a toll on Big Bill, at least in the corridors of power on the east coast. They have been much tougher on him than the locals, and it appears there is more dirt to be dished on the Big Guy. The New Republic, a noted mag on the left, has reportedly commissioned Tim McGivern, editor of ABQ's Weekly Alibi to help out with a piece on how and why the Guv did not bring home the Hispanic vote to Kerry. You can expect more of these types of articles as Big Bill has sent a clear message that he is interested in the 2008 Dem Prez nomination. But so is Hillary Clinton and other ambitious politicos who know how to work the national press. And working it they are.

CANCEL YOUR BETS

It would seem like a sure bet. The D Prez candidate carries big Bernalillo County by 10,794 votes and wins the state. But the political rules are made to be broken and so it was in 2004. In the final tally, Kerry did take the county by that number, but will lose the state by about 6,000. It's a first, and Dems can only hope that there is no second. Kerry was crucified by his fellow Catholics up North for supporting abortion. Some D's think it was a "Kerry thing," that their tight grip on the Dem North is only temporarily lightened. But what if it isn't? The majority party is in need of some soul-searching on that one.

VALLEY JOUSTING

Those Valley Alligators are tangled up again. We wrote Tuesday of failed Congressional candidate Eli Chavez's fury at Big Bill and the D's for failing to carry NM. Of course, Eli was shunned by the Guv in favor of eventual loser Richard Romero, but his attack struck a chord. Another Gator, D operative Sisto Abeyta, writes in seeking rebuttal time. He gets it:

"I would like to go on the record that Eli Chavez is nuts! He's done nothing to establish Democratic unity and often looked to blame others for his loss for the Congress. I am really disappointed in individuals who consistently regard the Guv’s efforts as fleeting in this campaign. He is the easy out for people to blame. The Guv and the Lt. Guv can't all be to blame for not getting out the Hispanic vote or persuading the vote in eastern New Mexico. I would ask “Where does this political dinosaur (Chavez) live and what areas underperformed in this election? Could it be deep in the areas of La Politica in which he resides?

Politics is changing, but these dinosaurs would rather sit around and reminisce about “How when I was in the party” than really get off their asses and do something (like they used to). These individuals forget what is was like to stand in front of a polling location from 7 am to 7 pm, talking to their friends and making sure they voted. They would much rather stand on a soap box and complain about an organization they have long ago forsaken for their own political ambitions," writes the fired-up Abeyta.

And so goes the post-mortem ABQ Valley style, where politics is a life-sport and only those steeped in the centuries old tradition of the Movida are allowed to play.

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Speaker Lujan
NM House Speaker Ben Lujan gave me the "treatment" Tuesday afternoon, making it clear that the Alligators who attempted to align him with former House Speaker Sanchez and State Rep. Ken Martinez on this blog need to hear a message: "I am confident in whoever the House Democrats choose for leadership positions," he offered in a stern chat from his center-of-power-office at the Roundhouse.

He also chastized me for not checking with him on the rogue comment that he somehow supported Martinez's move to oust Danice Picraux as Majority Leader and also sees Martinez as a future speaker. "I have not spoken to (former Speaker) Raymond Sanchez in months and I am grooming no one for anything," declared the veteran practicioner of the fine art of La Politica. And he sharply added: "Joe, my health is fine and God willing I will be around a long time."

THE MARTINEZ FACTOR

Rep. Martinez
The Speaker's point is well taken. The "grooming" of Martinez was the brainchild of former House Speaker Sanchez who was tutored by Martinez's father, former House Speaker Walter Martinez. His idea was a hand-me-down speakership, but that plan was aborted when Raymond himself was toppled from power by John Sanchez, who went on to lose the Guv's chair to Big Bill.

After Lujan took me to the woodshed, I went back to the pond and hunted down more reliable Alligators who pointed out that Gentle Ben does not cotton to being compared to his predecessor and, while he may not see Ken Martinez breathing down his neck, he is aware that this position of power is eyed fondly by those who wear their ambition on their sleeves. As for Martinez and the majority leader slot, if he were to win it would put him in the exact same position Ben Lujan was in before he achieved the Speakership.

THE BIG PICTURE

Another angle worth noting: Raymond Sanchez, ex-Senate boss Manny Aragon and Ken Martinez are of the trial lawyer variety. Since the departures of Manny and Ray the top Legislative leadership posts have been in the hands of the commoners like Lujan. Down the road, the powerful trial lawyers would like to have some of their own back in the top perches. They may have to wait a while in the House, but over in the state senate, Michael Sanchez, also a trial lawyer and brother of Raymond, is vying for the Senate Majority Leader spot. If Sanchez is successful the lawyer brigade would again have one of their own back in the power picture.

Meantime, while the House power positions below Lujan may be in question and are to be settled next week, he is taking his vitamins and letting it be known that there is no mystery about whose hand is banging the gavel. We hear you Mr. Speaker. Loud and clear.

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Rep. Stewart
Wall-leaners at the Roundhouse are deep into handicapping the coming Legislative leadership for Session 2005, with some of them looking toward ABQ Dem State Rep. Mimi Stewart as a possible new face in the top circle. Here's the deep insider take direct from a tapped in player: "It appears (Majority Leader) Danice Picraux (D-ABQ) is about to be shelved in favor of Ken Martinez. Nothing real bad about Danice, just that Martinez, whose father was House Speaker many years ago, has been groomed for bigger things by former speaker Raymond Sanchez and it appears current Speaker Ben Lujan sees it that way too," reports our Roundhouse source.

We're also told that if Danice is dumped when the House D's meet this month, they may feel they have to make way for another woman at the top. That would be Stewart, a longtime State Rep who is praised for her knowledge and knocked for her brashness. The House D caucus will name the new House Majority Leader as well as Whip, which was left vacant when James Taylor was appointed to the State Senate to replace Manny Aragon.

THE MARTINEZ MOVIDA

Martinez's claim to fame is his sponsorship of the ignition interlock bill, the one where every car in NM would have been equipped with one of the anti-DWI devices, no doubt causing a big increase in the price of a car. Critics claimed the Martinez bill, which garnered way too many votes, was a ruse by the trial lawyers and designed to derail real DWI reform.

Lawyer Martinez of Grants, in the hot spotlight of La Politica for the first time, wondered aloud why he was being scorched statewide for the bizarre and invasive measure. Perhaps that experience will temper him a bit if he is successful in his coup attempt of Picraux, who has been a reliable leader for the D's but hasn't become a dominant force and thus may be ripe for the picking.

Meanwhile, in the State Senate Democratic caucus there is chaos over who will provide future leadership. It seems everyone is standing in line for a piece of the power pie. I'll have an exclusive insider report on just what is happening in the senate a bit later this week.

RAGIN' IN THE VALLEY
Eli Chavez
Back on the election post-mortem, there is full-blown rage at the Guv in some Dem circles for failing to win the state for Kerry and get more Hispanics to the D side. Most won't go public, thus it has been hush-hush. But unsuccessful ABQ Dem Congressional candidate Eli Chavez and his wife Sheryl are going on the record via "NM politics with Joe Monahan." Eli was denied a spot on he June primary ballot, when Richard Romero challenged his petitions. Here's a blistering email from the hopping mad couple:

"The Gov's and Lt. Gov's boy lost to Heather. As they say in Atrisco, El Patron Gov. Richardson is all blow and no show. El Patron could not even carry New Mexico or the Hispanic vote for Kerry. El Patron and his Lt. Gov. have egg on their faces. They turned off many Democrats by endorsing the candidates they wanted. As a result of El Patron and the Lt. Gov's backing of their candidates a new organization was created within the Democratic Party known as the "United Democrats of New Mexico." United Democrats have set a goal of recruiting 60,000 Democrats within the next year and one half. It's mission is to take back the NM Democratic Party from El Patron and his Lt. Gov and give it back to the people of New Mexico," blasted the Chavezes.

Don't you love it? Full-blown Alligator rage and on the record! I haven't heard cries of "El Patron" since Emilio Naranjo's days in Rio Arriba. Long Live La Politica!

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If you look at any poll, requiring voters to present ID at the polls is approved by overwhelming margins, yet NM Dems have fought it tooth and nail for years, until now. Big Bill, mindful of those polls, and his own reputation as a reformer, not a reactionary, has signaled he is ready to play ball with the R's and look for a "bipartisan" solution to voter ID. The Guv told KKOB's Larry Ahrens: "I think there should be some kind of way that you verify...and we need to do it in a bipartisan way."

During he campaign NM Dem Party chair John Wertheim aggressively fought voter ID in the courts and there were a lot to of Dems who wee uncomfortable with that stance. New Mexico's rough time counting votes didn't hurt getting the Guv off the dime on this one. Let's see what happens in the Legislature next year. Too often election reform is put on the backburner; a big reason why election snafus have become a regular part of the campaign aftermath.

TIES THAT BIND

Big Bill has reason to be sore at the University of California, manager of Los Alamos Labs since WWII, but ever the political pragmatist it's not stopping him from urging UC regents to make a bid to renew their management contract. It was back in 2000 when the Guv, then Energy Secretary, was taken out to the woodshed by Congress after a major security lapse was discovered at the nuclear weapons facility. So why is he traveling to California this week to urge that UC stay on board? Future votes may be one reason. Details and some of my analysis from the Oakland Tribune and reporter Ian Hoffman.

GUV 2044?

It has not been a good run of late for the King political dynasty. Bruce is long gone and Gary suffered a losing bid for Congress this year, But there may be hope for a revival of that famous families fortunes, if not in the immediate future. State Rep. Rhonda King and her husband Johnny Montoya announce Rhonda gave birth to a baby girl October 30th and with Rhonda's political pedigree--she's a niece of Bruce--and Johnny's La Politica tie--he's a cousin of former Guv Apodaca--maybe the new addition will someday vindicate the King family's political standing and take back the Guv's office. The couple says 2044 is the date. But why wait? Apodaca was elected in 74' at the age of 40.

HE IS CHEAP

NM Court of Appeals Judge Rod Kennedy has issued a dissenting opinion on his ethnic heritage. Contrary to what we wrote here (Nov. 10) Kennedy claims to be of Scottish descent, not Irish. We will give him the benefit of the doubt and not speculate that he is embarrassed by his true roots. Then again, Kennedy did not argue about being cheap. That puts him squarely in the Scot camp. See you at Wal-Mart Rod.

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Vigil-Giron
And I was supposed to be outta here for a while, recuperating from Campaign 04' and swearing off the Alligator email and phone calls. (You too). Well, I will be gone for a couple of days, but KOB-TV's Neil Simon, who apparently has no cure for his addiction to La Politica, is still hot on the trail and breaking election news that has also caught my eye.

Our quarry: Dem Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron and that huge advertising buy featuring her that you could not miss if you tried. In a late night phone rap from his hideaway cellar office in the Eyewitness Newsroom, Simon and I noted that Rebecca spent a jaw dropping two million bucks on radio and TV ads in the name of "voter education." Incredibly, that just about equals the total buy of big spending congressional winner Heather Wilson.

Simon reports that the money came from the federal Help America Vote Act (HAVA) and NM's share came in at $19 million. Most of that, says Rebecca, will go to voting machines and software. But because much of her TV spot was taken up by her mentioning her own name, Simon quizzed me on what my Alligators have been saying about Vigil-Giron's political future.

What they've been saying Neil is that Rebecca, who can't run for another term, is casting about for something, anything to run for. But Kerry didn't win which means Udall stays in the northern congressional seat keeping her out of there. How about Light Guv? Well, Big Bill is running for re-election, (or at least we think he will, unless Sen. Bingaman steps aside) and that means Diane Denish stays. So Rebecca's big TV push may have built a lot of name ID but right now she looks like a woman without a race to run.

Meanwhile, the GOP critics are hitting her for spending more money on TV than the Secretary of State in Ohio where the voting population is over five million. Simon says (really, Simon says) sources in the Bernalillo County Clerk's office are harping that they have not seen much of that HAVA money and wonder when its coming. Of course, Clerk Herrera and Rebecca have been on the cat path, as Mary makes it clear she will run for Rebecca's job in 06'.

HERE COMES THE JUDGE

Well, there's no better way to leave things for a couple of days than with some musings from the witty and urbane NM Court of Appeals Judge Rod Kennedy. Writes R Rod: "I think there really is a conspiracy between Richardson and Vigil-Giron to shave Bush's NM vote margin. If they get it down to about 200, Richardson can fire that many Republican state employees and tell the Democratic National Committee he's taken care of the problem."

Why can't we have more aging hippies like Rod on our high courts? I admit I voted to retain Kennedy, but only after running into him at Wal-Mart where he was complaining about the prices. Being Irish and cheap are things I understand.

See you back here in a couple of days and, as always, thanks for your support, praise and punches. They are all welcome at jmonahan@ix.netcom.com. There's an email link at the top of the page. I am outta here....

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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There's been plenty of mystery the last few years in the atomic city on the hill; spy dramas, missing secrets, the list goes on. But the latest mystery has nothing to do with international intrigue. It's the missing Republican votes in the 2004 Prez election. The county was narrowly won by Bush by just 500 votes, even though he carried it 55% to 41% in 2000. Los Alamos is a reliable R county. The eggheads at the Los Alamos National Labs feel they get a better money deal under the GOP and have voted accordingly for decades. This year's results were such an eyebrow raiser I went undercover, violating the security clearances of La Politica on your behalf to unravel the mystery of the missing votes. Wen Ho Lee, you've got nothing on my Los Alamos Alligators! From them, the deep inside story you will get only here:

"Bush beat Gore here in 2000. A similar result for Bush this time would have given him a 1,500 vote victory. It appears disgruntled lab employees and retirees, who support the University of California (UC) management contract, were fearful that if Bush got re-elected, the UC team would be terminated by the Department of Energy (DOE). The contract would then be awarded to the University of Texas in Bush’s home state. Employees feel threatened by the loss of the UC contract because of the generous benefit package it offers.

"During the final week of the campaign, Daddy Bush was sent to Los Alamos for a rally with Senator Pete, the Godfather of LANL. Efforts were also made by GOP operatives to douse the flames, but many employees remain upset with the DOE’s treatment of lab management and employees in response to recent LANL security lapses. LANL worker morale is at an all-time low." So declared the Los Alamos Gators.

It's got make the Kerry people sick. They scored hugely in a county they normally would have to write off, but were ignored by many of the very voters they normally can take for granted; Hispanic New Mexicans in the north.

COUNTING IN THE SLOW LANE

Perhaps there has been some jumping of the gun in lashing out at the slowpoke vote count going on in NM. Provisional ballots by the thousands still have to be counted and impatience is growing, even though the count is very unlikely to change the outcome of the Bush victory here. Denise Lamb, head of the Bureau of Elections in Santa Fe, points out that the vote-counting is not just slow in our Enchanted Land:

"Joe, every state is counting provisional ballots. New Mexico is not alone. New York state doesn't even begin to count them until 10 days after the election. The only difference is that in other states the margin of victory of one candidate or the other is larger than the number of provisional ballots to be counted. We have laws that require us to count every vote. Visit Electionline.org for news of elections in other states. You will see reports about the counting of provisional ballots in Alabama, Kansas, Louisiana and Washington State," wrote the election expert from her Roundhouse office.

Denise has a point. All the other votes, for the most part, have been ably counted. It's the provisional ballots that’s been the fly in the ointment. In past years, it‘s been missing votes, bad vote counting and bad software that slowed the count. So far, and we have our fingers crossed, that has not happened. While Denise makes a good point, the Secretary of State's confusing count on its web site has not helped matters. That is something that should be fixed before the next election and so should the time-consuming way we count those provisionals. A final note: Last night KOB-TV reported the Bernalillo county clerk is looking into the possibility of at last 200 fraudulent voter registrations. In New Mexico, it's not over until it's over.

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Extremism in Campaign 04' went over the top late last week as the sitting Governor of the state of New Mexico was accused by the NM Republican Party of entering into a "conspiracy" to steal the election and throw the state's five electoral votes to John Kerry. The comments from the executive director of the state GOP were so bizarre that GOP Senator Pete Domenici was forced to call Big Bill and "disassociate" himself from the wild, unproved and uncalled for allegations.

The GOP offered up no evidence of a conspiracy. It was simply a firebomb thrown out to damage the reputation of the governor and cast doubt on the integrity of the election. The allegation was picked up by UPI and carried nationally, further damaging the state's image around the nation.

Domenici, who was gloating over the Bush NM win Wednesday morning, called Big Bill to cool things down. He also called GOP ex. director Greg Graves, who made the charge, and told him to back off. But some R's say it was Domenici's refusal to get involved in last year's intraparty warfare that is partially responsible for the chaos and extremism that has engulfed the state party. Now he is like the clean-up guy following around a circus elephant.

REAP WHAT YOU SOW

It's pretty sad to see Pete, dean of the NM GOP, beholden to a bunch of people who took over the GOP in the name of getting contracts and deals. For Pete and other moderate Republicans who have refused to act to unify the party, the chickens are coming home to roost. Extremism is not a guiding principle of the Republican Party, yet it has seemingly been sanctioned by the inaction.

Big Bill is a big boy. He doesn't need help defending himself. But the charges don't just damage him; they damage New Mexico. The Republican Party needs to come forward with a complete retraction and apology to the governor and the citizens of the state for the poisonous babble that passes as political dialogue. After that, maybe they can find the courage to do the right thing and reform a state party organization that is seemingly out-of-control.

THE ETERNAL COUNT

Without question the protracted vote count is riddled with incompetence and there is no excuse that we are so far behind the rest of the nation in vote counting. It's been this way for years, including the eight years that Republican Governor Johnson held power. This is a bipartisan disaster. The Legislature and Bernalillo County Commission also share blame. Big Bill appointed an election commission a year or so ago. What did they do?

As for the 2004 election result check my post below. It seems there are not enough votes outstanding to change the Bush win here. But Mr. And Mrs. New Mexico are so disgusted with the stuation they are probably wishing both Bush and Kerry could be declared losers and get this thing over with.

AT THE ROUNDHOUSE

Now that the dust has settled, Walt Rubel, writing in the Alamogordo Daily News has a complete round-up of the New Mexico Legislative races, complete with comments from Big Bill.

Make our site, WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM, one of your favorites and e-mail a link to interested friends. Interested in advertising to NM's large political community? E-mail me from the top right of this page, or call 505-243-4059 for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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Yes, there's still 19,000 or so "provisional" ballots remaining to be counted in New Mexico. But media reports are not emphasizing that many of those will be rejected. Probably at least 20% of them and maybe up to 40 or 50%. Let's say 30% of them are rejected. That would leave about 13,300 votes to be counted. The AP has Kerry behind Bush by 8,366. Kerry cannot make up the difference. Unless there are a bunch of missing votes, not an impossibility in vote-challenged New Mexico, or the AP numbers are out of whack, which is not likely, the state goes Bush. Nervous Republicans and heir lawyers have already filed a court challenge regarding provisional counting in Sandoval County. With NM's storied history of election-counting errors, don't rule anything out at this point.

Look at this statement posted on the Dona Ana County clerk's web site: "The unofficial elections results posted on Wednesday, November 3, 2004 were found to contain inaccuracies. The corrected numbers will be posted as soon as they are
available."

This is the same county that fouled up the 2000 vote-count when they posted wrong numbers in the Prez race. As a result, Al Gore eked out a 366 vote win. No wonder Domenici delayed his return to Washington.

The long knives of La Politica are never allowed to rust. They come out like clockwork immediately following the results. This time is no different as disgruntled D's absorb the shellshock of an Election Night disaster. "This whole campaign was smoke and mirrors," declared one depressed D insider as he analyzed the NM defeat of Kerry. "Where was our organization down south? What happened to the Hispanic vote? And why were prominent NM Democrats not featured in the campaign to beat Bush," he wondered.

(Read my analysis and others of NM Prez race in USA Today.

Here's theCNN exit poll on NM. Note the Hispanic number for Bush. They might be high, but tell the tale.)

There were plenty of fingers pointing to answers the morning after. Much of it focused on the man who made a Kerry victory here a personal mission, Big Bill. "First they are going to blame the governor, then they are going to blame the voters and then they will finally blame themselves," said one insider R about the Dems as he exulted in the Bush victory.

And he's right. Big Bill's TV commercial for Kerry featured him prominently and was a closing spot for the campaign. His personal staff was hands-on with the Kerry campaign and his PAC, Moving America Forward, was to deliver the Hispanic vote. None of it worked.

"Didn't they realize that he (Big Bill) is not popular down south? Bill and his operatives have never understood that area. They almost lost the constitutional amendment there last year. This time They consolidated all the power of the campaign, and they blew it. The whole thing was way overrated and poorly coordinated. People who had already voted were still getting phone calls and the get-out-the-vote effort was nonexistent in some of the rural areas," raged one Dem campaign strategist.

Party Chair Wertheim tried to put the best face on the D downfall, saying they had done all they could. But few were buying and he too was the target of barbs.

FUTURE IMPACT

Big Bill's White House hopes were also under the microscope in Washington, where one Prez watcher said the failure of Big Bill to deliver NM, a state with 42% Hispanics, will sting. "How can he tell the national D's he can deliver the Hispanic vote nationally, if he can't carry his own state," said one Capitol Hill insider.

Dems raging at Big Bill were passionate. They felt Bush was one of the weakest targets ever. In the heat of the moment, some slammed operatives by name. But it will be Big Bill, the public symbol of the Dem party, who will take the hit. "Poor Bill Richardson," Senator Domenici cockily cooed Wednesday morning as he gloated over the Bush victory.

Others claimed the Kerry loss will reduce the fear factor of the Guv and make opposition more likely in the Legislature, if only among emboldened R's. Other insiders told me the coalition of R's and D's in the state senate has a better chance of surviving in the aftermath of Tuesday's Democratic debacle.

But most D's, while enraged, were also fearful." We need candidates and a message voters can connect with," said one. Meanwhile, at the Oval Office, Karl Rove was relishing the triumph of his NM campaign strategy, in which Bush lost big Bernalillo County but boosted conservative turnout elsewhere. It was a bold gamble and he won. "Maybe we have new math, or maybe we just need new blood,' mourned an Albuquerque D badly in need of Prozac.

PREDICTIONS GONE AWRY AND RIGHT

I spent Wednesday wiping egg off of my face, after predicting a Kerry victory in NM. I was right on Bernalillo County (Kerry won) and dead wrong on he national outcome. I had plenty of company, none more surprising than State Sen. "Lightning Rod" Adair who dispatched an Election Day e-mail saying Bush would lose the election. What?? That's right.

The hard-right conservative, a co-chair of the NM Bush campaign who fancies himself as one of the nation's foremost experts on Prez politics jumped ship. He said Bush would lose in the Electoral College 254 to 284 and drop Ohio and New Mexico along the way. Wrong, Rod. All this had some R's fuming. "It was an act of treason. It again showed that Rod is more concerned about Rod than the party,' blasted an R operative.

One who has gloating rights over Adair is ABQ Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff, who once again had all the major winners finishing at the top of his pre-election poll. Adair has questioned Sanderoff's integrity in blistering e-mail attacks. But now it is Adair's integrity being called into question as Bush supporters wonder just whose side he was on. Will Adair now dare to take credit for the Bush victory here? As always, stay tuned.

EXPERTS FOR A REASON

My panel of experts fared pretty well with their pre-election predictions. Veteran R Bruce Donisthorpe came the closest predicting here last week: "Nationally, Bush wins. Electoral College 279-259, taking Ohio and Florida in close contests." Bruce nailed it. He also predicted a 1,000 vote win for Bush in NM. It will be larger, but his call was close.

Green Steve Cabiedes was another prognosticator who deserves a tip of the hat. The prediction: "The political numbers cruncher likes Bush seeing W getting 284 electoral votes to Kerry's 254. He scores Florida and Ohio for Bush." Steve may be the closest when it's all over.

Kurt Lohbeck got the winner right but his 300 electoral vote prediction for W was too high. However, he did predict a gain of two seats for the R's in the Senate. They got four. Greg Payne was the best pundit on the Wilson-Romero Congressional race. He said: "I score it for Heather with 54% to Richard's 46%." He had Heather right on target and Richard just one point high. Nice call. Lohbeck, Payne and Donisthorpe also correctly predicted Senate Minority Leader Daschle would be defeated in South Dakota. Hey, that's why we pay them the big bucks.

BLOGGING AHEAD

I will probably be a bit light here in the next week or so as I, like you, come down from the frenzy of the campaign. But stay tuned for updates. The wonderful world of La Politica is a never-ending journey into the unexpected. I will have some more comment Friday at 8:30 p.m. on KNME-TV's "In Focus" program, hosted by Kate Nelson. See you then.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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It was a surrreal night and morning. I am writing you shortly after 5 a.m. after 12 straight hours on the air at KANW-FM, and still New Mexico remains undecided, although Bush had a lead of over 10,000 when we concluded. It will be hard for Kerry to overcome such a lead with the estimate 40,000 ballots still to be counted. The night was exhilarating as the contest remained so close all night and all morning. But in the end my longtime broadcast colleague Scott Scanland and I were disappointed. Not so much over the results, but that once again we have a disputed election that will lead to further political division.

What happened? So much. Southern NM roared from the beginning totaling up big margins for Bush. The Hispanic North underperformed for the D's, responding, some said to Bush's conservative message on things like abortion and family values. Kerry appeared to carry Bernalillo County by 5,000 or more votes, yet he appears to have lost the state. Very unusual. Turnout appeared to be near the 70% mark, higher than four years ago, but not enough to push Kerry over the top, not with reluctance demonstrated by many D's who went to the polls Tuesday.

For now, let's find out today what Kerry says and how the Bush team goes forward. Let's keep our eye on the NM vote-counting. History says it is not quite over. I will check back in with you on all the incredible events in the days ahead. I welcome your comments and emails.

We may or not have another deadlocked Prez race in NM like 2000, but one aspect of that famous election is already repeating: bad weather. And It's hitting just where it did four years ago: SE NM. In a late night Election Eve interview, KRQE-TV meteorologist Mike Hernandez told me the brunt of the early winter storm today will be centered in Lincoln County (Ruidoso, Cloudcroft), one of the most Republican counties and right where a more severe storm dampened voter turnout in 2000. It may have cost Bush NM as the storm stayed away from the Democratic North. Gore won by just 366 votes. Hernandez says this time the Democratic North is in the clear. It will be cold there but no snow today and clearing skies.

Lincoln has only 14,000 registered voters but is 56% GOP. If weather keeps them home there, and the race is razor-tight, Mother Nature could be a deciding factor as many think she was last time. Voters in "Little Texas" as we call the SE, are a hearty bunch, but the storm will keep some voters away. Will it again be a deciding factor? We will know in a matter of hours.

EARLY VOTING UPDATE AND MY PROJECTIONS

81,785 voters cast ballots at early voting location sites in Bernalillo County. About 68,000 absentee ballots will be cast in the state's largest county. I am projecting a turnout of 256,000, or about 72% of registered voters. That's high and I expect it to help Kerry win the county by about 8,000 votes. The Senator should carry NM by a similar, if not larger margin. My final NM prediction percentage wise is Kerry--50%, Bush-48%, Others--2%. Nationally, I expect Kerry to break 300 in the Electoral College, win Florida and win the national popular vote as well. I am projecting a voter turnout statewide of about 70%, or 700,000 voters. (I am not counting 134,000 "inactive" voters on the rolls)

The early Bernalillo vote broke about 55% for the Dems. Tonight watch how ABQ Dem Congressional hopeful Romero does iin that vote. If he loses it by more than a couple of points, he will very likely lose the election to incumbent Wilson. Kerry should carry the early vote and the vote cast on Election Day. If he doesn't, game over. The absentee vote will not heavily favor the R's as it has in the past because the D's have learned how to work it.

WALL-TO-WALL E NIGHT COVERAGE ON KANW 89.1 FM

This is it. And we an hardly wait. Join me starting at 5 p.m. on 89.1 FM (heard throughout north central NM)as we track every race from Prez to judges. We do not expect the absentee votes from Bernalillo County to be in until after midnight, so this is going to be a long one. However, my experts, lobbyist Scott Scanland, D Lenton Malry, R veteran Bruce Donisthorpe, Green Steve Cabiedes and State. Rep. Rick Miera, will have results from the rest of the state that will help us help you get a a handle on the Prez battle. Also, we will have early results from selected precincts in ABQ. We will stay on the air as long as the Bernalillo County Clerk is counting votes.

WHAT A YEAR

I started this blog in October of 2003 and many dramatic events have carried us forward. Frankly, I got lucky. I never dreamt there would be so much fascinating political news. Neither did I expect all the help and guidance I have received from you, my loyal and deeply appreciated readers. Many people ask me if I make a lot of money doing this. The answer, of course, is no. Not that I haven't surprised my highest expectations. Wonderful sponsors like Enteprise-rent-a-car came aboard before we even were three months old. Many more followed and it has been deeply gratifying.

But most rewarding has been the opportunity to have such direct participation in the political give and take, make new friends, and humbly learn that I have a lot to learn. I will try to be here Wednesday, but if our radio broadcast goes into the wee morning hours, that may not be possible. Thanks to all of you for your interest, comments and your valuable time.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty, NM Legislative Reports and John Moore & Associates. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
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Now it's just hours. Power hangs by a thread. The stakes are as high as they get. War and peace. A moment in time that will be frozen in history. But the heck with all that for a moment and let's have some fun! It's time to send my political pros out on the limb and make them predict this most unpredictable election. Not that we are putting any pressure on them. We wouldn't dare come back here this week and point out the error of their ways. Well, of course we will. But there's always that chance that someone will get it right. Don't forget our Election Eve Special today at 5 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM in ABQ. Right now, let's go out to the field for the final plays.

FIRST BASE

Top Dem NM Lobbyist Scott Scanland, now in the game for 25 years, says this is the toughest call of them all. But in the end its Bush who takes the prize and he won't need NM to claim it.

"Kerry is finishing better in NM than Bush. Kerry wins NM by two points with the help of the Guv. Nationally, I thought Kerry had the big Mo to carry him through but Osama is changing my mind. I will be watching Wisconsin. I think Bush wins FL & Iowa but loses Penn & Ohio. I believe it is fear vs. Bush hatred. I think it will be an early night though, if Bush wins Penn or Ohio and FL, it's over. Kerry can win Pa. and Ohio and it still won't be his unless he wins Wisconsin."

SECOND BASE

GOP Political consultant and state legislative candidate Greg Payne (his opponent is D Michael Corwin) says it's Bush in NM and in America. "I score it 296-242 in electoral votes. Bush wins NM by two points, the same in the nation. It will be the war on terror and Bush doing a better job in portraying himself as the person who will wage that war most aggressively. As for Wilson-Romero: "The turning point was the KOB-TV debate when she soundly defeated him. I score if for Heather with 54% to Richard's 46%.," declared Payne. He also threw in a bonus pick and predicted Senate Majority Leader Daschle will be defeated in South Dakota

THIRD BASE

UNM Poly Sci prof Gil St. Clair leans R, but he thinks Kerry will win New Mexico. He points out there has been a big boost in voter registrations, a third of the new registrants are 18 to 24 years old and that bodes well for Kerry here. "The deciding factor will be turnout," said St. Clair

RIGHT FIELD

Veteran politico Kurt Lohbeck practices magic on the side and it would take a magician to call this one. Let's see what he pulls out of his hat.

"I predict a very narrow Bush victory in New Mexico. Bush will win the election nationwide and garner closer to 300 electoral votes. I was going to predict that if Kerry won New Mexico by 5000 to 10,000 votes, then Romero would win the Congressional seat. But with my belief that Bush will win NM I now see Heather Wilson winning re-election."

Lohbeck's bonus prediction was a pick up of a couple of seats for the R's in the U.S. Senate--53 R's, 46 D's, one indy. (Daschle goes down).

CENTER FIELD

Former ABQ Mayor Jim Baca, one of the state's most experienced campaigners, throws in the towel on the ABQ Congress race. The lifetime Dem says Heather is going back to D.C. with a 52% to 48% win. Baca has Kerry winning NM by the biggest margin of any All-Star. He scores it 52% for Kerry, 47% for Bush and 1% for Nader. The former Land Commissioner stayed out of the national fray.

LEFT FIELD

The Green Party's Steve Cabiedes will be one of that 1% that he predicts will vote for Nader in NM. But he predicts Bush will carry the state by the slightest of margins,just one-half of one percent. Bush--49.5%, Kerry--48.5%. The political numbers cruncher also likes Bush for the whole game seeing Bush getting 284 electoral votes to Kerry's 254. He scores Florida and Ohio for Bush and says Hawaii will surprise as it goes for the GOP. Steve's bonus prediction was on turnout. He sees it hitting 70% of registered voters statewide, up from 63% in 2000. He pegs voter turnout in Bernalillo County at 72% of the registered, up from 68% four years ago.

PITCHER

Despite the passing of the decades Dem activist and pollster Harry Pavlides still has the utmost passion for the game. And on this one he breaks with the consensus view and says it goes to Kerry in NM and the nation. And talk about getting specific, take a look his predicted finish. In New Mexico, Kerry--50.71%, Bush--47.0%, Nader & others--1.71%. Harry has Kerry taking the Oval office with an electoral vote total in the 290's with a popular vote for Bush of 49%, Kerry 48% and others 1%. His bonus prediction is a heads-up."Keep your eye on the Wilson-Romero race. If we get a huge turnout spike that race could be in play," offered Pavlides.

SHORTSTOP

Political junkie and ABQ Weekly Alibi managing editor Tim McGivern gives up on Romero, but still likes Kerry.

"Kerry and Bush in New Mexico is a dead heat. Kerry should be able to pick up many of the undecided to leverage his three-point deficit in the Journal/Sanderoff poll.
The question is: How many of those undecideds stay home?

Nationally, I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry takes all of the Midwestern battleground states--Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota. Nobody has been hurt more by Bush's policies than working people in the Rust Belt. Coupled with discontent over Iraq, it could be a surprisingly easy win for Kerry, with Bush lucky to break 260 electoral
votes.

As for Romero-Wilson, Sanderoff's poll (51-43 for Wilson) should put a frown on the collective faces supporting Romero.Romero's going down, probably by 52-48, give or
take a point,"opined the busy journalist.

CLEAN-UP BATTER

All year we have gone to veteran NM R consultant Bruce Donisthorpe to bat clean-up after the NM caucuses, the primaries and the Prez debates. We asked him to pick up the big stick for us one more time and give us the final word on Campaign 04' on this most special American Election Eve.

"The NM Presidential race is too close to call. I'm guessing that Cheney's and Bush's late visits put the GOP over the top and the Republican ticket wins by 1,000 votes. If Kerry expects to win here, he's got to show up to claim his prize before the polls open. Dems are banking that Clinton takes the ticket over the top. I'm not sure that's enough because Clinton is the past and Kerry is the future and he's not here."

Nationally, Bush wins. Electoral College 279-259, taking Ohio and Florida in close cotests. This will be the closest race since 1960. Bush takes the win with a strong performance in 30 states throughout the south, southwest or Rocky Mountain states. Bush wins national popular vote by 49% to 48% for Kerry. It could be closer in the final count.

Congresswoman Wilson wins re-election with 52% of the vote. Heather has been one-step ahead of Richard every day of this campaign from fundraising, to message development, to advertising to turnout. Congressman Pearce will win with 54% of the vote. Pearce enjoyed a huge money advantage and never trailed in this race.

Bruce's bonus prediction was on the U.S. Senate which he keeps close eye on for his business clients.

"GOP retains control of the US Senate, perhaps pick up a seat or two and go from 51 to 53. The Republicans had an edge in the South where the Dems had to defend five open seats and Bush ran strong," said swami Bruce.

COACH'S CORNER

None of my All-Stars said they would take their predictions to the bank and some actually tried to wiggle out with cries of "toss-up." But eventually like true team players they all came through and I thank all of them for helping today and during the past 13 months as we have covered this campaign without a break. We are nearing the end of an exhilarating ride which has created great political memories for all of us. Long Live La Politica!

KANW-FM ELECTION EVE SPECIAL TODAY AT 5

Time to fish or cut bait. And that's just what I will ask my panel of expert insiders to do Monday at 5 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM. Our hour long Election Eve special will feature top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland, ABQ Tribune managing editor Kate Nelson, Dem insider Terry Brunner and GOP State Senator Joe Carraro. Tune in and see if they can predict the big races right.

ELECTION NIGHT ON KANW 89.1 FM

We will start early Tuesday, Nov. 2 to bring you the important East Coast results. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland and other experts will join me for rapid-fire results and analysis on 89.1 FM. It's all made possible by Pfizer, Enterprise rent-a-car, Bill Campbell Realty, NM Legislative Reports and John Moore & Associates. Be sure to join us as we call all the NM races.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2004
Not for reproduction without permission of the author