Sunday, August 21, 2005Poll: ABQ Mayoral Race Still In Play; Mayor Marty Lands On The Money Number, But Barely; He Hits Exactly 40%; It's My Special Sunday Blog![]() Any politician with 98% name ID, like Mayor Marty, has a hard time beating his first polling number come Election Day. Sanderoff indicates it may be easier for Marty to do so because he has a high job performance approval among the undecided. But that's open to question. How come the mayor is not stronger in this poll since his overall job approval rating is at a very healthy 63%? That's the opening his opponents will sieze upon. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4%, meaning Marty could be at 44% or as low as 36%. Insiders in the Chavez campaign were hoping for at 45% or better thinking such a high number would basically end the race. But this poll, as Jesse Jackson might say, keeps hope alive. Obviously, Winter's late start has hurt him. He will need TV money very soon and he faces the challenge of picking up just about every GOP vote that is not already with the mayor and then some. Griego faces similar issues. It will now be up to the opposition to spin the numbers in a way that they can raise money from and also keep the race from being written off by the public after it gets news of a poll that shows Marty nearly 30 points ahead of his closet competitior. Expect heavy negative campaigning too. Winter and Griego must stop any growth in the Chavez numbers or else he wins in the first round. At the same time, they must get known and create some positive vibes about themselves. Hey, no one said it would be easy. More on all this Monday from my all-star team of election watchers. It will be exclusive, in-depth analyze you can get nowhere else so dont miss it. See you then! (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2005 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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