Thursday, May 03, 2007
Big Bill Bounces A Bit In Iowa, Plus: Mayor Marty's Many Options, And: ABQ City Election Update; Welcome Aboard The Good Ship La Politica
It appears Big Bill's Iowa TV buy and his personal campaigning there bounced him in the polling in the key early Dem prez primary state. The Guv is now garnering 5 percent of likely Dem caucus goers, up from one percent for most of this year. However, he is still in fifth place in the Iowa ARG Poll conducted at the end of April because Senator Joe Biden grew from two percent to six percent. Senator Edwards continues to lead the pack in the Iowa poll, with 27% supporting his candidacy.
What would Big Bill most like to have if stranded on a desert island? A Blackberry and a Davidoff cigar. What, no members of the New Mexico Legislature?
No, ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez is not going to seek the ABQ congressional seat, but if he ever needs to change his mind, he's been given ten good reasons. Chavez's political boat is full of speculation these days--a run for Governor, a run for U.S. Senate if a vacancy should occur. And last, but not least, even a third in a row term as Mayor.
Still on the city beat, City Council Prez Debbie O'Malley is gearing up for her re-election bid, announcing she will utilize the new public financing method which means she will spend in the area of $30,000 to $35,000, according to her campaign. She is an unabashed liberal Dem who has clashed with more conservative minded Mayor Marty, but they have been getting along better as the October election approaches.
Councilor Brad Winter, like O'Malley, a city native, is out campaigning for a third term on the council. Unlike O'Malley, Winter's relationship with the mayor has never recovered from the bitter '05 mayoral campaign they waged against one another. There are rumblings that Chavezistas are working on getting a candidate to run against Brad, but no names have surfaced publicly. Winter, a Republican, is favored in District four which admires him for his dedication. But it would be good for the city if Marty and Brad could bury the hatchet.
No surprise, but it is duly noted that ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson is listed at #8 on the top ten list of GOP U.S. Reps that national Dems plan on targeting for defeat in '08. That from the Evans-Novak Political Report which adds:
"One could argue that 2006 was a Republican low point, and therefore many of these districts will not be competitive again in 2008. However, a continued sour mood over the Iraq War could produce another massive Republican defeat in 2008 that makes 2006 look tame by comparison."
Heather, a perennial Dem target, is still hanging with Bush on the unpopular Iraq war,. She has a couple of months to see if the "surge" starts turning things around there. If not, she and others on the targeted list could start to back away from the war. The same goes for GOP Senator Domenici who has been getting a pass from the overwhelmingly anti-war electorate, but having been weakened by the US Attorney political scandal, he too may come under pressure if the surge fails.
THE BOTTOM LINES
I don't think Big Bill served lox and bagels to this guest...
She's not raising money and she won't be raising money anytime soon. That's what the political pros took note of from the news here Wednesday that former attorney general Madrid has a new law firm job. "If you are going to raise $5 million to run against (GOP Senator) Domenici, you better start now." Said one seasoned strategist. The pro says Patsy could be a contender if Pete steps down, but if she was really serious about taking him on, she would be raising money, not hopes. Dems, he declared, are best advised to keep looking. Hard to argue with that...
Did you know that Fred Mondragon, head of the ABQ economic development office who was named by Big Bill Wednesday as the new state economic development chief, is the brother of former NM Light Guv Roberto Mondragon? Big Bill is sure doing right by the brothers. Roberto was given a big state job in 2005. I don't know if he still has it, but if he doesn't, he could call Fred and ask: "Brother, can you spare a dime?"
Keep us posted. Send your political news and comments from the email link at the top of the page.
c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
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