Tuesday, October 07, 2008Gates Start To Close On Campaign '08; Early Voting Starts Today, Plus: Heinrich Leads White In Independent Poll, And: Mac's ABQ Visit![]() Voters love early voting because they can make their decision and tune-out the inevitable barrage of negative campaigning that defines the modern election cycle. Some of the media is starting to adjust by having their TV debates earlier and newspapers are starting to come with editorial endorsements in time to catch the early voters. Monday the Santa Fe New Mexican came with one of its earliest ever endorsements as they gave the nod to Dem US Senate candidate Tom Udall. While early voting is a great convenience, those who decide to play traditionalist and cast their ballot at the local school on Election Day may be rewarded for their patience with smaller lines and a chance to chat up their neighbors. WHITE LAGS HEINRICH ![]() ![]() It wasn't supposed to be this way. The R's said they had delivered a golden boy in a Dem year that would keep the seat safely in GOP hands, continuing a 40 year trend. But polling prior to the Journal's showed that thesis in doubt--Heinrich's own late September poll had him leading by three-- and this poll confirms that underdog Heinrich is very close to being called the favorite. Not that the race is settled--far from it--but Heinrich may be positioned for a somewhat rare feat in ABQ congressional politics--benefiting significantly from the coattails of the presidential candidate. The Journal and pollster Brian Sanderoff say Obama is winning the metro area by 51%. McCain comes in at 34%. White is already outrunning McCain by a big margin. There's only so far he can run with that, while Heinrich has more room to grow in the direction of Obama. The fly in the proverbial ointment for Heinrich is those conservative Reagan Democrats. The poll says he is earning 65% Dem support. Many D's don't know the former one term city councilor and there are others who are skeptical because of his liberal background. On the other hand, Heinrich has opened up a lead among the crucial independents (47 to 31 and 22 undecided) who normally go to the GOP. That is very good news indeed for Heinrich, who can now afford some bleeding among those conservative D's if he continues his head of steam with the indys. Fifty-one percent of Hispanics polled favored Heinrich while White was favored by 32 percent, with 17 percent undecided or who wouldn't say. That's not too bad for Darren at this stage. Heinrich needs to work the South Valley harder and bring these voters home. How can such a highly touted candidate like White be in such deep trouble? The national Dem trend is, of course, the primary reason. Heinrich remains a relatively unknown quantity. Many voters are voting against the Republican---never mind who the Dem foe is. No wonder the Alligators report that White was nowhere to be seen at McCain's ABQ visit Monday. EVEN MORE ANALYSIS ![]() The sheriff and his handlers did not seem prepared for this level of political combat, believing his long record in law enforcement would be accepted and rewarded by the voters. But that record was never presented and it turns out that many voters had only a shallow relationship with the sheriff. His record is now being presented to the voters by the Democrats in highly negative campaign ads. White has responded with one of his own, but the campaign is being fought on the wrong ground for the R's. The issue should not be whether White is a good sheriff but the competence and abilities of the Democratic candidate--the traditional route to victory for the R's in the ABQ district. Heinrich doesn't have a lot to gloat about. As we said, he is the beneficiary of the national trend. His campaign has overspent, had various personnel issues, hid the candidate at times and been generally lackluster. Having said that, Heinrich has proven himself resilient by not making any public mistakes and being a relatively adept fund-raiser. This candidate has taken some hits that border on the personal, but has kept his cool. His restraint has served him well and perhaps given voters a sense that this is not the hapless, weak-kneed caricature that his foes were hoping would by now be his defined image. There will be several TV debates between Heinrich and White and a mistake by either candidate could shake the race. The contest remains a toss-up but Heinrich has a tailwind and White has a headwind. But leading on coattails has dangers. If Obama should fall on his sword, Heinrich bleeds. Still, for a Democrat to be ahead in the ABQ congressional race on the day early voting begins is a first-time accomplishment. For a moment at least, it blacks out 40 years of unpleasant memories. HARRY AND ED Sorry, no ABQ Journal poll for the big race in the southern congressional district featuring Dem Harry Teague and R Ed Tinsley. Seems the recession is taking its toll. Teague did have some news Monday. His campaign said: (We) raised approximately $1,096,000 in the third quarter, which runs from July 1st through September 30th. Teague loaned $500,000 to his campaign during the quarter, bringing his total personal contributions to approximately $1,265,000...Sixty-four percent of total individual donations came from within the 2nd Congressional District. The national D's and oil wealthy Harry are outspending Tinsley on TV. Ed's been hammering Harry on gun ownership and now he's come with the endorsement of the NRA. FATHERS OF SUCCESS ![]() MAC'S RETURN McCain rolled into ABQ for a quick visit Monday that won him the usual intensive nightly news coverage the campaign yearns for, as well as the live coverage of the three cable news channels.Beyond that, there was not much of a local nature that voters here would grab onto. Senator Domenici introduced him at the early afternoon rally at the Student Union Building at the University of New Mexico, a location in the heart of Obama country and which drew youthful protesters the TV cameras gravitated to. Video of McCain's speech here. As we said earlier, our eyes on the scene say ABQ congressional hopeful Darren White did not attend the McCain event, apparently taking to heart that it is the Republican brand that is a prime reason he lags Dem Heinrich. Reps. Wilson and Pearce did attend, but neither made comments. McCain will likely return as he trails Obama here by five points, but still has an outside chance for the upset. A stop in southern NM to beef up the conservative base may be in order. Or how about a solo visit from VP contender Palin? That would get those GOP hearts throbbing. E-mail your news and comments. (c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008 Not for reproduction without permission of the author |
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