Saturday, November 01, 2008

Final SurveyUSA Poll Shows Obama, Udall Lead; McCain To Roswell Election Eve 

The final SurveyUSA poll was released Saturday. The ABQ Journal's last survey comes Sunday. In SurveyUSA, conducted for KOB-TV, Obama continues to lead in New Mexico--52-45%--going into the final hours. McCain will make an Election Eve stop in Roswell at 6 p.m. at the airport hangar there. Tom Udall retains a large lead--56 to 42%-- over Steve Pearce in the US Senate race. Here is the analysis from SurveyUSA:

Maybe, At the Wire, A Slight Tightening in the New Mexico President and US Senate Contests:

Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain, to capture the state's 5 electoral votes, and Democrat Tom Udall defeats Republican Steve Pearce to capture the US Senate seat vacated by Republican Peter Domenici, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-election tracking poll. In four SurveyUSA polls since mid-September, Obama has received 52%, McCain has received 44% or 45%. Of New Mexicans who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads big. Among those who have not yet voted, but who promise to, Obama leads small. The relative size of those two groups will determine Obama's winning margin.

In the contest for United States Senate, Democrat Tom Udall defeats Republican Steve Pearce 56% to 42%, the closest Pearce has been to Udall in 4 tracking polls, and 4 points tighter than the race was mid-October. In Bernalillo County, Udall's once 24-point advance is now 13, as Pearce breaks 40% for the first time. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 New Mexico adults 10/29/08 through 10/31/08. Of them, 721 were registered to vote; of them, 664 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote on or before Election Day.

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