If Obama takes the White House Big Bill doesn't need anyone blocking the New Mexico exits, so it's no surprise that the Guv has set up two state fundraisers to help Hillary Clinton retire her $25 million campaign debt. Hillary's gang was livid that Bill, the beneficiary of much Clinton munificence over the years, would not endorse Hillary prior to the NM prez caucus. And when he later endorsed Obama, Clinton acolyte James Carville dubbed him a "Judas." If Bill is picked for a big government job--especially one that requires Senate confirmation--he doesn't need the Clinton sword hanging over his head. Making nice with her at the August 17th fundraisers could have her calling off the dogs and making it easier for Obama to promote the Guv.

One of the fundraisers will be hosted by Dave Contarino, Bill's former chief of staff and manager of his ill-fated bid for the Dem prez nomination. The ABQ event will be hosted by longtime friend of Bill, Paul Blanchard, owner of the Downs at ABQ, and soon to be operator of a new Moriarty racino. Light Guv Denish, an original Clinton supporter, will be a co-host for the fundraisers.

If Obama should lose in November, Hillary could again be a major presidential player, another good reason for Bill to dull the sharp edges of the political knives that her crowd has been throwing his way.

BILL'S DEBT

While he is raising money for Hillary, Bill still has a bit of a debt of his own to pay back from his days on the prez trail. The latest total is about $292,000.

FAITH BASED BUDGETING

How bad is the cash situation for national R's? Well, so bad that John Ensign, head of the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, says in a news release that his pledge to match the spending of the Dem national senate committee is based on "faith," not cold, hard cash in the bank.

The DSCC recently announced it will make a $15 million TV buy in key Senate states, including NM. How much they will spend on behalf of Dem Tom Udall has not been announced. In fact, if Udall stays way ahead, that spending could be diverted. If it is, the national R pledge to spend as much as the Dems here isn't going to help Republican Steve Pearce much. The Senate Dem committee has nearly $49 million banked; the R committee has just $24.6 million. Pearce reported only $531,000 cash on hand at the end of June. He needs all the independent expenditures he can get. Udall has nearly $3 million banked.

Much of this talk is so much poppycock. If oil multimillionaire Pearce is going to spend all his time grubbing for money in the next 90 days, Udall is going to have few problems. On the other hand, if Pearce wrote a check to himself for $1 million or so, it would solve a lot of problems. But conservative Pearce is not prone to do so, which is why his campaign is also looking like a leap of faith, even for the true believers.

COSTLY DELAY

Pearce has just been beaten to the punch in another important campaign category--going negative. No, Udall has not unleashed attack ads, but a third party group--Patriot Majority West--hit the screens in the big ABQ market Wednesday night, ripping Pearce's record on Iraq and military issues. (The ad is not posted on the Web). Pearce supporters were hoping that Steve would be the first out of the gate with negative, catching Udall off guard. But now it's Pearce on the defensive before he even airs his first ad which insiders expect to come next week. For Pearce's people, it can't get here fast enough.

NO COMMISSION COUP

Talk that two Republicans on the Bernalillo County Commission could join with Dem Art De La Cruz and form a coalition has died a quick death. De La Cruz defeated Commissioner Teresa Cordova in the June primary. The GOP candidate for the South Valley area seat is Cecilia Ce de Baca but the area hasn't gone R in decades, so De La Cruz is expected to take office at the end of the year. He has worked for the city of ABQ and has ties to ABQ Mayor Chavez who has tangled with the commission and chairman Alan Armijo. Insiders say entreaties to De La Cruz to caucus with the two R commissioners and become chairman have hit the wall. "Art does not want to be in the position of being branded a turncoat by Democrats," said one downtown insider.

SINE DIE?

More storm clouds gather over Big Bill calling the Legislature into special session August 15. Terrell in the New Mexican:

The Senate (adjourned) several times last year when Richardson attempted to call a special session right after the regular session. Rumblings in the Senate indicate it could happen again when the new special session convenes Aug. 15.

THE DEVIL IN NM?

How about this? Satan's skull found in our enchanted land! Near the Roundhouse?

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Brian Condit
Vindicated Alligators splashed in delight in their summer pools Tuesday as the Guv's office finally confirmed their reports that Brian Condit would replace James Jimenez as Big Bill's chief of staff. The Gators, especially one Senior Gator, now only await confirmation that Jimenez will go to work as city manager for Rio Rancho under new mayor Tom Swisstack. The Guv's office only said that Jimenez would leave at the end of August to take another job.

We first blogged that Jimenez was headed for the exits in early July, but the Guv's office told the press no such move was afoot. The ABQ Journal said "Internet reports" had been struck down. But the Alligators are not in the rumor business--they are in the reality business--tracking the changing power structure of the state and what it means. Their 99% accuracy rate remains intact, and we're darn glad or else we would be out of business.

Condit, a former union president who has handled legislative affairs, has served as the Governor’s Deputy Chief of Staff since 2004. Capitol wall-leaners say he will need to work to smooth over some ruffled feathers with certain state legislators.

THE HIDDEN CAMPAIGN

Some would say it is one of the great ironies of this election cycle. A group claiming to advocate ethics reform appears to be in violation of federal rules and is basically thumbing its nose at Attorney General Gary King. The AG has advised the secretary of state to treat the group, NM Youth Organized, like any political candidate and require full disclosure of who gives them their money. However, no action has been taken and King has said nothing more.

Whether you're on the right, the middle or the left, the activity of NM Youth Organized and its parent group--Center for Civic Policy--is of concern. The group, run by veteran political operative Eli Lee, has secured coveted non-profit IRS status which means they can conduct limited political activity without disclosing contributions. Also, the donations are tax-deductible. After nuking two Dem state Senators in the June primary, who both lost their seats, the group is back at it in Las Cruces, targeting GOP State Senator and minority whip Lee Rawson. The critics say the group's activity is anything but "limited" and crosses the line for a non-profit.

Without blushing, the group claims its recent campaign flyer has nothing to do with Rawson's re-election race in which he is opposed by enviornmentalist Dem Steve Fischmann. They claim the flier, hitting Rawson for not being in favor of imposing campaign contributions limits, is aimed at the August 15 special session. But that issue isn't expected to be on the special agenda. Candidate Fischmann maintains he is not in cahoots with NM Youth Organized, which would be a violation of campaign law.

KING'S CHALLENGE

King is getting an earful about political advocates on both the left and right disguising themselves as non-profits and letting their supporters hide from the disinfecting light of day. Insiders wonder if the AG is in a political fix because the Center for Civic Policy is left-leaning and has influence in Democratic primaries. King is a Democrat who will either seek re-election in 2010 or make a run for the Dem nomination for Governor. Rawson told us: "I have talked to AG King regarding this issue. To my understanding, he believes it (the group's activity) is a violation of our current campaign laws."

We are getting wind that the ABQ Journal may be looking to do an investigative piece on the sprouting of these political non-profits (including those run by oil companies?) It would appear long overdue as would action by the attorney general and secretary of state.

MORE ON THIS

Here's a YouTube PSA for NM Youth Orgnized.

CALLING IT EARLY?

It's this kind of psychology that GOP US Senate nominee has to worry about.

Things are rolling for the Democrats," said Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report. "I don't laugh anymore at eight or nine. A few races have to fall into play but they are close. They have Virginia gone, New Mexico is also gone, and six races are toss ups, including Minnesota..

But stop the presses. We asked Jennifer if she really though our Senate race was history. She replied via e-mail from D.C.:

"I am not happy with the Huffington Post piece. I was misquoted on NM. What I said was that NM was ALMOST gone. (and I’ve probably said to 50 reporters and in a dozen speeches). I haven’t completely written Pearce off, I’m just having a hard time seeing how he catches up to Udall...

HARRY'S HOUSE
Teague
Southern Dem congressional contender Harry Teague has a new campaign manager. He is veteran political operative Frank Costanzo, who served as a senior advisor to Big Bill's presidential bid, Arizona state director for Howard Dean's 2004 run for the White House and manager of several congressional campaigns. Teague also unveiled a new Web site to go with the new manager,

Costanzo is also described as a corporate turnaround artist. Not that Teague needs turning around, but the Dem is the definite underdog in the conservative south where he faces Republican Ed Tinsley in November.

Costanzo replaces Brad Foster who managed Teague during the primary, but was let go for the general. Tinsley also has a new manager, having demoted his primary manager and naming Domenici and Heather Wilson operative Chris Collins to the post.

Costanzo joins fellow progressive Dem organizer Neri Holguin in working for Teague. Watchful Dems in Santa Fe say the progressives he has on board have plentiful organizational experience, but to win the race Teague, who has close ties to Big Bill and Light Guv Denish, is gong to have to run as a somewhat conservative Democrat. Tinsley is already charging that Teague, an oilman from Hobbs and a former twoterm county commissioner, is too liberal for the district. Neither Teague or Tinsley have yet been pressed hard on the issues of the day, but Teague has fair warning. Veering to the left is a sure-fire recipe to keep him out of the US House.

THE BOTTOM LINES

ABQ GOP congressional candidate Darren White spent Tuesday night in the hospital suffering from back pain. His campaign says he fell while exercising Monday. They say he is expected to return to his sheriff's duties and the campaign trail soon. We guess Dem Martin Heinrich will have to send that get-well card to Darren's home...Steve Pearce is proud to be an oilman, he tells the Los Angeles Times...

Bernalillo County District Attorney Kari Brandenberg, seeking a third four year term, is counting on Hispanic Dems to help put her over the top. To that end, she has her Web site available in Spanish and English. She is opposed by GOP attorney Lisa Torraco...For fans of newsman Ed Pennybacker, who passed away last week, blogger and photog Mark Bralley offers an in-depth look back...

This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments, and stop by again soon.

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More suspense surrounding that special session of the NM Legislature that Big Bill has called for August 15. The big projected state cash surplus that Bill is relying on to finance taxpayer rebates is not set in stone. Legislative Finance Committee staff heavy David Abbey told your blog Monday, that the recent decline in oil and natural gas prices means a revised estimate is needed on just how much extra cash is available.

A traditional rule of thumb during the regular session is that if a staff economist review indicates that the estimates have changed by one half of a percent to one percent, they should be officially revised. Looks like we're in that situation," said Abbey.

The Guv may not want to see any new revenue estimates, given the recent fall in oil and natural gas prices, but it would seem irresponsible not to get one since the projected surplus is based on $134 barrel an oil and $13 natural gas, prices that have not stuck. The LFC could go ahead and do an estimate without Bill signing on, but insiders consider that unlikely.

If a new estimate is significantly lower, more sparks could fly. The Guv's office remains confident the money is there and that lawmakers are using the recent correction in energy prices as an excuse to kill Bill's plan for universal health care. Still, those with long memories will recall the very real impact lower oil and gas prices had in the mid-80's. That's when the Legislature had to repeal tax cuts based on high oil and gas prices.

Day-to-day energy prices are going to drive the psychology behind the special session. Your guess on where they'll be August 15 is as good as any.

RUIDOSO DISASTER
Guv in Ruidoso
While Bill is pushing the envelope with that special, he was doing what he does best when he landed in Ruidoso to survey extreme damage left by raging flood waters. The Richardson administration is rarely caught flat-footed in responding to natural disasters. In fact, we have a solid long-term record when it comes to aiding our neighbors wherever they live in the state. GOP Governor Gary Johnson also had a good eight year record in getting government moving when disaster struck. The 2000 Los Alamos fires being one example. The men and women responding to the Ruidoso disaster deserve special mention.

And the video from Ruidoso is pretty incredible. You can see it on YouTube.

TAKING IT UP A NOTCH

You might get a kick out of some of the hot-button rhetoric the campaigns are using to raise money this cycle. Here's a Monday missive from GOP US Senate nominee Steve Pearce as he seeks financial support from his conservative base in his battle against Dem hopeful Tom Udall:

As the hysterical environmentalists and Tom Udall hold America's energy hostage, working families are suffering. America needs energy security NOW--not obstructionists! Tom Udall has voted more than a dozen times to prevent drilling and six times against new refineries...Steve Pearce is challenging the Washington status quo, the hysterical environmentalists and Tom Udall to drill domestically and NOW!

Maybe some enviros are hysterical, but Tom Udall? He seems as calm as a monk.

GETTING CLOSER
White & Heinrich
The interesting thing about the new poll GOP ABQ congressional hopeful Darren White released Monday is that it has him below the magic 50% level. That is a sigh of relief for the Dems who feared the well-known two term Bernalillo County sheriff may have been poised to run away with the ABQ race, which has been in the GOP column since its 1968 creation. But the White poll, conducted by his campaign Tuesday and Wednesday among 500 likely voters and with a margin of error of 4%, puts him at 47% to Democrat Martin Heinrich's 41%.

Heinrich released a poll in early July that gave him 47% to White's 44%. However, as we pointed out then, that poll identified to respondents the party of each candidate. White's campaign is not releasing the question that was asked, but judging by the results it appears to not have mentioned political party. An insider poll taken just before July 4th had White garnering 50% and Henrich coming in at 32%. And a poll White released last October had him at 51% and Heinrich at 33%. With the margin of error in his poll, theoretically White could still be at 50%, but it's unlikely.

While White's team can take heart that they are six points ahead in their survey, which shows White has name ID of 78% and Heinrich 65%, the race remains within reach of the Dems. In fact, we're mildly surprised by former ABQ city councilor Heinrich's 65% name ID, given the relatively light media buy he did for the June primary. We think White's 78% ID is a bit below what you would expect because he has done no paid media since announcing last October.

So some good news for both candidates in this survey. White reinforces the notion that he is the frontrunner, but Democrats have good reason to believe their man stands to benefit from a Democratic wave should one materialize.

ANOTHER NOTE ON THIS

We think the portion of the White poll testing his strength against Heinrich was neutral, but since they will not release the question, we can't be sure. Former ABQ Mayor Jim Baca, writing on his blog, says he was polled on the ABQ race Wednesday night and the poll sounded legitimate until near the end:

"The 'push poll' sounds legitimate for the first ten minutes and then the zinger comes. All sorts of negative statements about Democrat Martin Heinrich." Said Baca.

There's always an Alligator around when you need one.

IT'S SOMETHING

What would the R's do if they did not have the drilling issue? Just about every other matter on the table cuts against them. But high gas prices are so in the face of the everyday consumer that the polls have moved in favor of drilling faster than an oil slick. Here's the latest.

WHAT ABOUT HIM?

When his son was busted by the press for not revealing an arrest involving boozing and driving, Jerome Block, Sr. asked about the record of the Green Party candidate who is opposing his son, Jerome Block, Jr., for the Northern seat on the NM Public Regulation Commission. Turns out Rick Lass has had a run-in with the law as well as noted recently by the Santa Fe Reporter.

DI DENIED

She says it's because she and the Guv agreed the issue is too complex for a special session; others will say Di is being dissed by Bill. Whatever the case, the lieutenant guv's request to have a predatory lending measure taken up at the August special is dead. Meantime, the Clovis News Journal did a solid interview with the state's #2, in which she was asked publicly for the first time about becoming Guv if Bill leaves to take a job with an Obama administration. "I'm fully prepared..I'm prepared to step in," She said.

MOST WATCHED
Sen. Snyder
The most watched state Senate race in New Mexico this cycle will be the ABQ NE Heights battle between GOP Senator Diane Snyder and Dem Tim Eichenberg. In fact, insiders are hard pressed to name any other races where they think the incumbent is genuinely endangered. They are keeping an eye on Senators Clint Harden on the East side and Lee Rawson in Las Cruces, but not ready to put them in the toss-up column.

The lack of competitiveness shows how important the 2010 Guv election will be. The Legislature will redistrict all state House and Senate seats in 2011. If the R's could snag the governorship, they would have tremendous leverage over the process. If not, the Dems could tighten their stranglehold on the Roundhouse even more.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail us the latest.

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Attention K-Mart shoppers: Don't plan on spending those state cash rebates just yet. The generosity of Big Bill and like-minded legislators could be upended by the sudden price decline for oil and natural gas. That has Bill's August 15 special session of the Legislature looking as thin as November ice. If the correction in energy prices morphs into a full-blown bear market, one can only wonder what hat trick the Guv comes with to salvage the $163 million rebate plan, the other goodies he has planned and the special session itself.

Just how big a gamble the Guv and his allies are taking became clear over the weekend when it was reported the $392 million projected state surplus depends on oil staying at around $134 a barrel and natural gas staying priced in the $11 area. But oil is now below $125 and gas has dropped below $10. Spending millions on rebates, road repair and maybe health care reform before you have the money in the bank is like spending that raise you were promised before it hits your checking account. But this is Santa Fe, where they've been singing refrains of "Happy Days Are Here Again" for better than five years. The epic energy bull market has rolled on and on. Learning a new tune to go with leaner times is not yet on the program, but the musicians are warming up.

The state House, usually a citadel of solidity for Bill, started to crack with the new cash flow worries. Santa Fe Dem State Rep. and Legislative Finance Committee honcho Lucky Varela joined with Senate money heavy John Arthur Smith in wondering aloud about the wisdom of the rebates. These guys probably have the first dollar they ever made. But on the Fourth Floor, where they light cigars with $100 bills, they were having none of it.

"I've been dealing with pessimists in the Legislature..I've been bold," declared Big Bill, arguably the luckiest Guv in state history as he presided over gargantuan oil and gas surpluses every year since taking office.

The special already seems cursed. First, the Guv said it's primary goal would be health-care reform but when support fizzled, he added the rebates. Now, if the energy markets continue to fade, the rebates are endangered, along with the rest of the special agenda. All this puts the Guv in the strange position of needing higher gas prices, while Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico need the opposite. Could the Guv cancel the session? It would be out of character, but any gambler will tell you the first rule of success is to cut your losses. Stay tuned.

WHAT BILL'S VISITING
Here's the Guv's favorite Web site between now and August 15. And Bill's new favorite thing to do is this. If it works, he won't have to worry about that pesky Legislature much longer.

Speaking of a pesky Legislature, its Web site has been down a bunch lately. Are they running out of money already?

THE OTHER NUMBER THAT COUNTS

Besides the price of oil and natural gas, the other number Big Bill is obsessed with is his popularity rating. Like a barrel of oil, it too has been heading south. Last month Rasmussen had the Guv plummeting below 50% approval for the first time in memory. When he hit 47% the Fourth Floor's attendants said not to worry. After all, it's one of those automatic phone surveys and just not scientific enough. Fast forward a month and Bill has now inched up to 51%. They can call that a fluke, too, but don't tell us, tell it to Messrs. Smith and Varela who watch that number like hawks eyeing mice.

SENATE NUMBERS
Udall
You can continue your summer reading or dip in the pool. The US Senate race is still a sleeper, and it's going to stay that way until Republican Steve Pearce starts answering Dem Tom Udall who has probably already spent a half million bucks on tube time. The Rasmussen poll just out has Tom continuing to lead the Hobbs congressman by a healthy 25 points--59% to 34%. Pearce has made up some ground from last month, but voters have been seeing all-Tom-all-the-time for two months. Most pros think Udall will likely sink quickly back to the 53% to 55% area once Pearce starts firing away. But getting the Dem frontrunner below the magic 50% is going to be the challenge. Did Pearce give Udall too much a of a head start?

In the NM Prez race, Rasmussen has it for Obama by five--46% to 41%. McCain was eight back last month. The Rasmussen polls were taken July 24 and have a margin of error of + or -4 percent.

ARE YOU EXPERIENCED?

We weren't of a mind to take on the latest happenings of Heather Wilson. After all, the ABQ congresswoman had her travel bags packed for her by Steve Pearce when he defeated her for the GOP US Senate nomination. But now she is popping up almost daily on national cable shows and other venues touting the success of the Iraq "surge" and warning that Obama is "frighteningly inexperienced." It may help her get a comfy job if McCain pulls off the upset, but Heather's footing on this one is shakier than cafeteria Jello. Take a look at how she felt about the famous surge in January 2007 as quoted by the ABQ Tribune:

"No one I have talked to can explain to me why we should expect increasing U.S. forces in Baghdad at the levels being discussed would have a different outcome now than it had last summer and fall."

Now was Heather "frighteningly inexperienced" for not being able to forecast that the surge would work? Well, you be the judge.

HARRY AND ED
Harry Teague
GOP southern congressional candidate Ed Tinsley is bashing the daylights out of Dem contender Harry Teague for not agreeing to what seems to be a debate a day. Harry of Hobbs is not the slickest talker in the world, while Ed could sell you water rights to the Mojave. Teague won't turn down any of the big TV debates and will make the joint appearances, but he is not going to let Ed show off at his expense. That's smart because the media and the voters are not going to take notice as long as Harry shows for the main events.

What voters do care about these days is the state of their wallets and purses. To that end, the Dems slammed Tinsley, former head of the National Restaurant Association, over his opposition to increasing the minimum wage. It went up to $6.55 last week, Here's the money quote from 2006:

"The people who want to raise minimum wage must have never written a check to cover labor," said Ed Tinsley, chairman of the NRA.

The challenge for Teague is to energize minimum wage and other low income voters who are traditionally difficult to get to the polls.

TEAGUE'S PLAY

Another gambit that insiders say could help oilman Teague in this race which is "lean Republican," according to top NM analysts and the closely followed Cook Political Report, is to write a check. That's right. A big, fat ol' check. He came with one for $800,000 in the primary. Tinsley, owner of the K-Bobs's restaurant chain, seemed as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs when he had to get his checkbook out for the GOP primary. He finally did and loaned himself $200,000.

The national Dems say they will pump $1.2 million into TV for underdog Teague. (The first round of insider polling has Tinsley leading, but not near the magic 50%.) The R's are cash-strapped and have not announced a buy for Ed. If Teague piles on with his own money, the question could quickly become: Raise or call, Ed?

MOVE OVER HECTOR

Our Thursday blog pinpointing state auditor Hector Balderas as Lt. Governor Diane Denish's likely pick for Lt. Gov if she takes the Guv chair in the event Bill gets a job with a President Obama, started some name dropping. How about Santa Fe State Rep. Lucky Varela? To the mail:

He's a well-respected 21 year legislator; vice-chairman of the LFC; popular among state and public employees, well versed in state government, finance and the personnel system; former state comptroller; college graduate and holds a law diploma and is a US Army veteran;

Other names that surfaced included former Santa Fe County Commissioner Javier Gonzales, an ex-president of the National Association of Counties. Another reader asked: How about Española Mayor Joe Maestas? Fine with us. Send them to Di. We think you can find her at an Obama rally near you.

E-mail your news and comments and help us cover Campaign '08.

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Ed Pennybacker
Ed Pennybacker was a hard-driving, hyper-competitive radio newsman who cruised the streets of Albuquerque in the 60's and 70's in his signature car "Big Red." Later, he would go into TV and become a well-known consumer reporter for KOAT, but his reputation was first earned chasing ambulances and covering breaking crime news from that colorful station wagon. Pennybacker, 80, died in ABQ Wednesday. Obits here and here.

In Ed's heyday, ABQ was a much smaller city and radio news a much bigger deal than it is in today's multimedia universe. And it was Ed who towered above it all, despite working for KQEO-AM, a much smaller station than market leader and 50,000 watt giant KKOB-AM.

I sampled first-hand his determination to be the leader of the pack, and it wasn't pleasant. I was a 21 year old radio newsman for KRKE-AM 610, covering a 1976 ABQ appearance by Democratic presidential nominee Jimmy Carter, soon to be president. As visiting prez nominees still do today, Carter gave separate five minute interviews with each of the three major TV stations. Watching this come down, Pennybacker grumbled that he was not being given an exclusive with Carter. Driven by both fear and frustration, I cornered Carter press secretary Jody Powell and explained that there were some four radio news departments in Albuquerque and Carter should take advantage and do interviews. Powell gazed at me for a moment and whether out of sympathy or strategic thinking, snapped, "OK, but you'll all have to do it together."

He brought Carter into a small anteroom at the old ABQ City Hall downtown and the radio reporters were invited in for five minutes and told they could each ask one question. Pennybacker was not a happy camper. After all, he was "Big Red" and was being forced to share the presidential nominee with a cub reporter like yours truly and other radio riff-raff. But he had to accede or risk being scooped.

The time came for the questions and I asked the Georgia governor something about water. No sooner had I uttered the last syllable and was awaiting Carter's response when Pennybacker barked: "That's a stupid question!" A rush of emotion overcame me and I did not know whether to punch Pennybacker in the nose or shrink to the floor in embarrassment. Carter, an old pro, took no notice and launched into an answer.

Ed was nearly 30 years my senior and I expected a welcome, not a verbal punch. It hurt enough that I didn't speak to him for over 15 years. One day, after he had retired from broadcasting, I ran into him at the Winrock Center parking lot. He treated me like a long lost friend, even handing out a compliment on my reporting. I didn't mention the incident with Carter. I doubt if he even remembered it. I smiled and accepted the praise gladly, recognizing that Ed's trial by fire had tested my mettle. Future tests were easier for it.

RACING THE SHADOW

Few governors have cast a shadow as long as Big Bill's, but insiders believe polling shows Light Guv Diane Denish needs to establish herself as an independent presence with New Mexicans. In other words, voters don't want her to represent a third Big Bill term. Is that one of the reasons for the multiple "Roundhouse on the Road" tours she is conducting? They generate articles about Di and only Di in newspapers across the state.

ON THE DIAL

Looking for some politics on the radio dial as the election draws near? Public radio will have some offerings. We bumped into longtime media producer Arcie Chapa at the grocery store the other day where she told us her long-running Thursday morning public affairs show on KUNM-FM 89.9 is going strong. It airs at 8. In Santa Fe, KSFR 101.1 FM and news director Bill Dupuy are also tracking Election '08.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Balderas & Denish
It can't be called a done deal, but top New Mexican political operatives and insiders (Heck, throw in the wall-leaners, too) say if Big Bill resigns the governorship for a job with an Obama administration and is succeeded by Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, she will likely select State Auditor Hector Balderas as lieutenant governor.

In interviews with top level players, Balderas was repeatedly mentioned as the leading prospect for a number of reasons.

---He is a northern New Mexican Hispanic. That is crucial to the political equation for 2010, when Denish would face voters for election as Governor. Balderas, 35, would balance the ticket and give Denish a boost in a geographic area essential for a Democrat.

---Balderas, the father of three, is seen as non-threatening. The former one term state legislator from Wagon Mound in Mora County is not viewed as a personality who would clash with Denish, although history says just about every Light Guv eventually tangles with the boss.

---Balderas is associated with the "progressive" wing of the Democratic Party whose influence is most noticeable in primary races. Their support would be valuable if a contested Guv primary develops in 2010. As a legislator, Balderas received a 100% rating from the Conservation Voters New Mexico, a leading liberal environmental group. Also, he counts Dem Party Chairman Brian Colon among his closest friends. Colon served as treasurer and strategist for Balderas's auditor race.

MORE INSIDER ANALYSIS
Brian Colon
That the Balderas star is apparently on the rise is a testament to the old saying that in politics, timing is everything. If Jeff Armijo had not run into trouble in the 2006 Dem race for state auditor, Balderas would probably still be in the Roundhouse. But he was tapped by Dems to take Armijo's place when Armijo withdrew amid controversy. (Charges leveled against Armijo were recently dismissed.) Now, there is the need for a northern Hispanic to balance a Denish ticket and Balderas just happens to be available.

The auditor has been relatively low-key since winning office. He riled some politicos when he let speculation mount that he might run for Congress in '08. They argued he had just been elected auditor after a historic ethics scandal in the Treasurer's Office and should stay put. But other than that, Balderas, who earned his law degree at the University of New Mexico, has not been subjected to any significant criticism.

Other potential Light Guv picks for Denish include Santa Fe attorney Geno Zamora and Santa Fe County Sheriff Greg Solano, but both are way down the list, according to our sources, and Balderas remains the probable pick.

There is a caveat to Balderas or anyone else becoming the first appointed lieutenant governor. Voters must pass a constitutional amendment to allow such an appointment. The measure is on the November ballot. Most observers expect it to pass. The amendment also requires the appointee to be confirmed by the state Senate.

Big Bill and Lady Di haven't always been on the same page in recent years, but they are united in one cause--electing Barack Obama this November. And not only to end the war in Iraq and get the economy on track, but also to fulfill their own ultimate political ambitions.

THE BALDERAS FILE

Now that he has surfaced as a possible major player, the stakes are higher and inquiring minds want to know more. Here is an interview Balderas conducted in 2006 with KRQE-TV anchorman Dick Knipfing. It gives you a sense of how he handles himself in the media spotlight. Here is his 2006 candidate Web site which is still running. And here is a newspaper Q and A.

BLOGGING DI

Denish has been increasing her profile in recent months, anticipating a possible ascension to that Guv's chair and/or the 2010 Guv's race. Her latest PR has her blogging about her "Roundhouse on the Road" tour.

WILL THEY SHOW THE MONEY?
Eli Lee
More "third party" radio ads to tell you about. We wish we could also tell you who was backing the groups buying the time, but they've organized themselves as non-profits and don't release a list of individual contributors. The latest to hit the NM air is a spot knocking big oil and opposing calls for more oil drilling. You can hear it here by entering the password "scam."

The spot comes from the Center for Civic Policy. That group, headed up by NM political consultant Eli Lee, popped up on the radar during the June primary. Democratic legislative candidates attacked by the group, as well as citizen critics, argued it had violated its nonprofit status. Lee denied the charge in an Journal op-ed, but the group, despite saying it is a leading advocate for NM ethics reforms, does not, as far as we can tell, release a list of contributors. Why not lead by example?

The same goes for the group we told you about yesterday, The American Energy Alliance. Their Washington spokesman contacted us with more details about the group which is airing radio spots here advocating more drilling and hitting Dem US Senate nominee Tom Udall:

The American Energy Alliance (AEA) is a recently formed not-for-profit 501(c)(4) organization that advocates for free-market energy and environmental policies. It is affiliated with the Institute for Energy Research (IER), another not-for-profit --founded in 1989 – that conducts intensive research and analysis on the functions, operations, and government regulation of global energy markets.

As for individuals backing this group, good luck. That is information not readily available. So donors to Lee's liberal group and the pro-oil group get to hit and run without anyone knowing who they are. Sounds like a good story for the investigative reporters. And a good subject for campaign reform. Meantime, let the voter beware.

IN DEFENSE OF BILL

We ran a critical view Tuesday of Big Bill and the special session of the Legislature he has called for August 15th that drew some critics of its own. The naysayer wrote:

"This guy is stuck in neutral on his Rail Runner, and his CARE proposal that he will use as a bragging measure for Obama's consideration for a cabinet position. This governor continues to plan and implement by the seat of his pants...

But how is the Rail Runner stalled? Asked the e-mailers. They see it being built as they make their way to and from Santa Fe. They also see some pretty healthy ridership figures on the portion already completed. As for the CARE proposal--the centerpiece of which is tax rebates--that appears to be popular among lawmakers and headed for passage. Not bad for seat-of-the-pants governing.

SANTA FE CRIME WAVE--RECEDING?

Is the Santa Fe crime wave finally receding? We've blogged on and off about the safety of the City Different since crime started soaring there last year and urged action from Mayor Coss and Police Chief Johnson to avoid endangering the capital city's international reputation. If the latest crimes stats have it right, apparently progress is being made. Chief Johnson says he's pleased to see the reduction, but says the crime rate is still way too high for a city of Santa Fe's size. That's a better attitude than the head-in-the-sand approach and hopefully leads to even better stats. We'll stay tuned. Meantime, if you do get mugged in Santa Fe, you're likely to be healthy.

GATORS VS. SWISSTACK

We've been having way too much fun with the speculation over whether Big Bill Chief of Staff James Jimenez is headed off the Fourth Floor and into Rio Rancho City Hall as the new city manger. A Senior Alligator here has been facing off with the Guv's office--which reacted to our report by saying it wasn't happening --and now this Gator is grappling with Rio Rancho Mayor and Dem State Rep. Tom Swisstack. Asked about "rumors" that Jimenez would be joining the city now that the city manager Payne has resigned, His Honor told the ABQ Journal: "Rumors are just rumors in government."

The Senior Gator was back in the e-mail with a reaction to Mayor Tom's statement, and he was growing even more cocky about Jimenez taking the Rio Rancho job: "Done deal. Take it to the bank. Ching, Ching!" He chided.

Maybe Jimenez and Swisstack want to control the timing of his arrival in the City of Vision, and they'll be damned if they're going to let an Alligator--even a senior one--push them around. Like we said, all this is more fun than the law allows. Stay with us for the next chapter.

E-mail in your news, comments and opinions. We welcome them all.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Teague & Tinsley
Summer shake-ups at the top of the campaigns of the two southern NM congressional candidates as they prepare for the big push to November. A spokesman for Democrat Harry Teague's campaign confirms that the position of campaign manager opened up this month as Brad Foster was let go after "differences in direction." Foster came in from Virginia. He said he departs Teague with "no hard feelings." The spokesman says the search is on for a new manager and there are several candidates under consideration.

Teague's campaign momentum was seen as being slowed by the June 3 primary results in which he beat challenger Bill McCamley by only a slim margin--52% to 48%, after he spent nearly $800,000 of his personal oil fortune. The campaign spins that Teague's win was actually healthy because McCamley had a poll in May that showed McCamley significantly ahead. But most insiders are giving the early edge in the race to Lincoln County rancher Ed Tinsley, pointing out the GOP has held the district since 1981.

Meanwhile, Tinsley is also doing some shaking up. Campaign manager Grant Hewitt is now deputy campaign manager and Chris Collins, who managed Heather Wilson's unsuccessful run for the GOP US Senate nomination, has been named Tinsley's manager.

Collins, a lawyer, has served as a legislative assistant to Senator Pete Domenici since 2002. Insiders say his presence on the campaign brings Tinsley's campaign closer into the orbit of the Republican National Committee. In fact, my experts say both southern US House candidates are preparing themselves for more involvement in their campaigns by the national parties in D.C. That's where a lot of the money for these contests is generated.

WHO'S IN CHARGE?

The ABQ Journal Tuesday followed up on our report of the recent shake-up in the campaign of GOP US Senate candidate Steve Pearce and it resulted in some confusion. A spokesman told the paper that Pearce chief of staff Bob Carter was now campaign manager, but the manager is actually John Billingsley of Lincoln County who also managed the Pearce primary effort. Carter has the title of "campaign director." The campaign issued a correction.

This was all of interest because of our recent report on the short lived stint of Tom Carroll as Pearce's campaign manager. He lasted less than two weeks after differences developed between him and other Pearce operatives. The question was who would replace Carroll. The answer is Billingsley. The back and forth had a Udall operative ribbing her rival: "Who is running that campaign?" She asked.

DEBATE THE DEBATES

Dem US Senate candidate Tom Udall went on the offensive Tuesday on a perennial campaign issue--debates. Udall's camp, somewhat on the defensive after turning down a joint appearance with Republican nominee Steve Pearce before the NM Farm Bureau and rejecting Pearce's call for a summer debate on energy, proposed Tuesday that there be three televised debates--all of them after Labor Day. Pearce's campaign quickly agreed, but saw the move as a way for Udall to continue to avoid joint appearances with Pearce until September. A Pearce spokesman said he did not expect Udall to agree to any joint appearances like the one proposed by the Farm Bureau until after Labor Day and wondered aloud if there would be many of those.

By proposing the TV debates, Udall hopes to put the summer debate issue to rest, denying Pearce an opportunity to interrupt his momentum. And it cost him nothing to propose three TV debates. Why? The Big Three stations are all likely to offer debate time, an offer that neither campaign would be able to turn down. (KOAT is offering October 26 debate time. Pearce has accepted. Ironically, Udall, who is calling for the debates, is wrangling with the station over details, according to the ABQ Journal.)

As for those TV clashes, neutral observers are again reminding the ABQ TV stations that up to 60% of the vote will be cast before the actual Election Day. Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver says the first absentee ballots will be mailed out October 7 and that the first day of early voting at satellite locations begins October 18.

If the three major ABQ network affiliates jam all the debates in the final 10 days of the campaign, thousands of voters will not have the chance to see the two Senate contenders before they cast ballots. At least one debate is needed before October 18th. The TV stations ought to work together--in the public interest---to insure the debates reach as many potential voters as possible, not those who have already voted. We have our fingers crossed.

NEGATIVE IN SENATE RACE

One of the first negative paid media volleys has been fired in the US Senate race. A group calling itself the "American Energy Alliance" has hit the airwaves of KKOB-AM radio with a sixty second spot attacking Tom Udall saying he is against "expanding energy exploration." They urge voters to call Udall's office and ask him to support more oil drilling. We blogged yesterday that Steve Pearce's first TV ads are expected in two weeks and that one of them will focus on Udall and the drilling issue. Third party groups advertising for and against Pearce and Udall are expected to be a major presence on the airwaves here in the months ahead.

STATE OF THE RACE

The one danger Udall faces is overconfidence. There is a whiff of hubris among some of his supporters as he trounces Pearce in all the polling, but political pros are not among them. They believe this race will get closer. How much is the question. Maybe top Democrats in Washington agree. Why else would they announce they are spending valuable campaign cash from the Dem Senate campaign committee to launch NM TV ads on behalf of Udall?

Yes, Udall had nearly $3 million in the bank recently and is way ahead in all the surveys. But what if wealthy Pearce starts to close and then writes a personal check for big dollars? The liberals and progressives who think Tom has this one in the bag have good reason to think that, but those who are responsible for bringing the race home cannot afford to act like it. A TV buy from the national D's even for an already well-funded Udall seems prudent in a Democratic state in which the R's still control the majority of the congressional seats.

FIRST FLIP-FLOP?

The arguing over whether we have had our first flip-flop in the Darren White-Martin Heinrich ABQ congressional contest also centers on that hot button issue of oil drilling. KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson was alerted to the Tuesday morning ABQ Journal in which Dem Heinrich says he supports off-shore oil drilling, a position that seemed to be at variance with what Heinrich's campaign told Dyson last week. Here's the latest.

GLOATING GATORS?
Jimenez
The Alligators are getting ready to gloat. They had us blogging that Big Bill Chief of Staff James Jimenez would be leaving his post, possibly to take a job in Rio Rancho, but the Guv's office, responding to an ABQ Journal follow-up, knocked down the report. But lo and behold, on Tuesday it was announced that the current city manager of Rio Rancho is resigning. And who is the top name under consideration to replace him? It's none other than James Jimenez.

A Senior Alligator blogged here again Monday that Jimenez was headed to the exits, likely to be replaced by Deputy Chief of Staff Brian Condit. Reacting to the Rio Rancho news, he stuck with his prognostication that Jimenez will be announced as the new city manager of Rio Rancho as soon as August 6.

State Rep. Tom Swisstack has once again assumed the mayor's' position in the city and he and Jimenez have a history. In 1995, Jimenez was named finance director for the City of Rio Rancho, a position he held for 3 1/2 years while Swisstack was serving his first term.

For our new readers, "Alligator" is the name we apply to our top-level and highly-experienced political sources who we rely on to help bring you the inside story of our beloved La Politica. They have many of the characteristics of real, live Alligators--quick to pounce and devotees of the hunt. They are closing in on their prey with this story.

MAKING UP
Ben Ray
A campaign operative for northern Dem congressional nominee Ben Ray Lujan says the campaign is hopeful that Lujan's chief rival in the June primary, Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott, will endorse Lujan. Wiviott did not immediately call Lujan to congratulate him on the win, but the operative confirmed that eventually he did call and the conversation between the two Democrats was "conciliatory."

Wiviott and Lujan were the leading candidates in the race which Lujan won in a landslide, despite Wiviott spending some $1.4 million from his personal fortune. While Lujan and Wiviott make the peace, there is still bitterness toward certain Wiviott staffers by Lujan and his powerful father, NM House Speaker Ben Lujan. They think those staffers went over the line in attacking Lujan the Younger.

Keep us posted. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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The free ride for Tom Udall will end in about two weeks. That's when insiders report that Republican Steve Pearce will launch his first wave of TV ads. Udall has been on the air since the June 3rd primary ended, maintaining a healthy lead in the polls as Pearce, challenged financially, stayed dark. Pearce supporters have been growing increasingly anxious that he has not been competing with Udall. Now, Pearce is ready to go:

"Pearce spent the weekend in ABQ cutting TV spots that will start airing in around two weeks. One of the ads is a negative hit on Udall. It criticizes him for not being more supportive of domestic oil drilling," said our Alligator.

Pearce only had about $530,000 in cash at the end of June, compared to Udall's $2.88 million. A decent TV buy in the ABQ market costs about $125,000 a week. Then there's the money needed for El Paso which covers the Las Cruces market.

Pearce is independently wealthy and could write a check to his campaign. His supporters are hoping third party groups will be generous in cutting TV ads and offering other campaign support.

SPECIAL DAYS

That special session of the NM Legislature could be a weekend affair, but that isn't likely. On Monday the Guv set Friday, August 15th as the start date for the special, giving rise to speculation that lawmakers could get their work done by Sunday night if they opt to work the weekend, but House Speaker Lujan told the Journal he is hoping the session is over in seven to 10 days. That seems like a long time. The national Dem convention starts Monday, August 25 and Bill is slated to attend. There is also the hotel issue. The special could collide with the Aug. 23 Indian Market, a busy tourist weekend.

The Guv's health care-plan ran into a buzz saw, but he has now signaled he will accept a "framework" for universal coverage that could be used in the regular January session. If so, that removes a serious roadblock to speeding up the special.

The taxpayer rebate checks the Guv wants as well as extra road money should not be a problem. So with the special costing taxpayers over $45,000 a day why not get it all done quickly?

COUNTERPSPIN

Big Bill has had the megaphone on why we need a special, so let's hear from the other side as found in the e-mail from this Santa Fe wall-leaner.

"Joe, the session is becoming a laundry list of issues that make a special session look like a regular session. Remember, special sessions cost money to operate...the Gov. obviously is staging the special session to be his encore in the event he hightails it out of New Mexico come January.

This guy is stuck in neutral on his RailRunner, and his CARE proposal that he will use as a bragging measure for Obama's consideration for a cabinet position. This governor continues to plan and implement by the seat of his pants...

SETTING THE BAR

Big Bill set expectations for the Obama NM campaign Monday, predicting that the Illinois Senator will carry the state, but only by a narrow margin over John McCain. Bill's track record for predictions will not get him in the Nostradamus club, but we empathize, having given up the pastime ourselves after years of wayward guesses.

With New Mexico experiencing cliffhanger prez elections in 2000 and 2004, the Guv's prediction of a narrow win could apply to either prez candidate.

HEATHER'S CASH

We wondered aloud Monday whether ABQ GOP US Congresswoman Heather Wilson had any significant money left over from her unsuccessful run for the GOP US Senate nomination. Apparently not. The AP's Barry Massey reports Wilson's latest FEC reports shows her with $219,000 in cash as of June 30. But she can't spend that money and is actually about $25,000 in debt which she is asking for help in retiring. Here is an excerpt from a fund-raising letter Wilson recently sent out and made available to your blog:

"We actually raised over $420,000 toward my general election. But under...federal laws I must return those funds to the people who gave them...and I cannot use them to close down the campaign...I'm asking you to dig into your pockets to help me raise the last $25,000 I need.

That will end speculation that Wilson would take a big cash kitty with her when she retires from the Congress in January.

We also mentioned Monday the $58,000 that Dem northern congressional candidate Benny Shendo had in his campaign account at the end of the race. But we need to take a look at his next report to see if that amount stays up there, or whether Shendo has unpaid debt that will shrink the account. Ben Ray Lujan won the northern Dem race.

HEATHER AND THE NIPPLE

It was back in February 2004 when we blogged of Heather Wilson's outrage over Janet Jackson showing her nipple at the Super Bowl half-time show. She dressed down the head of CBS for the incident which you can see here. But Monday a federal appeals court threw out the FCC's $550,000 fine of CBS for Janet's wardrobe malfunction. The court said that the FCC "acted arbitrarily and capriciously" in issuing the fine for the fleeting image of nudity, which it noted lasted just over half a second. Around here, it may be Heather's over-the-top reaction that will be more remembered than Janet's nipple.

JIMENEZ FUTURE

The Guv's office knocked down our post-Fourth of July report that Big Bill chief of staff would soon be leaving his post to be replaced by Deputy Chief of Staff Brian Condit. But a Senior Alligator is back and insisting that we got it right. In fact, he even has a date for James Jimenez's departure:

"James Jimenez will be hired by the City of Rio Rancho on August 6th as the City Manger." Says the Senior Gator.

This comes from a source with a 99.0% accuracy record, so we are really intrigued and staying tuned. By the way, if Condit does take the chief's job, insiders say he has some repair work to be done with a number of state legislators who have not been enamored with his style. And no, if Bill leaves and Diane Denish becomes Guv, Condit will not be her chief of staff.

DATELINE ESPANOLA

It's not a slow summer for the Rio Grande Sun, the feisty and well-read Espanola weekly. The paper is reporting an interesting twist on the northern Public Regulation Commission race in which Jerome Block, Jr. ran into some controversy after capturing the Dem nomination. There is no Republican running, but the paper reports:

The Green Party candidate for the seat has gained the support of one Democratic Party ward chair, a Democratic state senator, and two former Democratic candidate advisors as he attempts to dig into the support of his Democratic opponent. After qualifying for public financing, Rick Lass has $64,778 in his campaign bank for his run against Democratic nominee Jerome Block Jr., who qualified for public financing in the primary race.

The Sun also quotes insider as saying it is still unlikely that Lass will pull the upset because of the huge Dem registration advantage and the little attention voters give to the down-ballot contest.

YOU CAN SAY THAT WORD

Some voters are already telling us they are already tired of the presidential campaign. By the time it's over, they will be exhausted. McCain, whose campaign will announce a veterans group in Las Cruces today, is out with his latest TV spot for swing states, including ours. The ad actually uses the word "drilling" as it urges more of that to solve the gas crisis. Some politicos have been shying away from using the word, preferring to say 'increase domestic production."

The polls must show even more support for drilling. I do think I spotted an oil derrick at Central and San Mateo in ABQ the other day.

Thanks for the news tips and comments that are keeping the exclusive campaign coverage coming. Check in via e-mail. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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This is disappointing. What appeared to be a joint appearance between NM US Senate candidates Tom Udall and Steve Pearce and which we blogged about turns out to be nothing of the kind. Republican Steve Pearce and Democrat Tom Udall will appear at the July 26th NM Farm and Livestock Bureau’s conference at the Inn of the Mountain Gods near Ruidoso, but they will not appear together. Udall will talk for thirty minutes and do some Q and A. Then he leaves the room and Pearce does the same. That’s far from the debate that we and others thought the group was putting on when their release said: “Candidates for U.S. Senate and Congress will kick-off the campaign season...Both Senate candidates have confirmed their appearance...”

It turns out that the Udall camp, way ahead in the polls, vetoed the idea of a joint appearance in which the two hopefuls would be able to ask each other questions. That deprives underdog Pearce the chance to make some points, but also denies the voters the chance to get an early heads-up on the state's premier political contest. Udall's camp does say it expects to participate in debates in the fall. Southern US House candidates Teague and Tinsley will, however, appear before the group at the same time.

Udall's camp won’t turn down the TV debates. But how many joint appearances will we get at non-televised events? If Udall keeps his big polling lead, the answer may be not many. How about if the groups inviting the candidates insist that they appear together? Some could, but others won't because they're trying to curry favor with the eventual winner. Meanwhile, the Farm Bureau shouldn't worry about the media overcrowding their senate session. This one is officially a bust.

PEARCE'S PROBLEM

Pearce earlier complained that he asked Udall for a debate on energy policy and was stiffed, and now the Farm Bureau rebuff. But what should he expect? He is putting no pressure on the northern NM congressman. While Udall has TV ads going and is canvassing neighborhoods in conjunction with the state Dems, Pearce waits. Udall may take criticism for refusing joint appearances, but he is more than happy to take those hits rather than give Pearce the chance to trip him into a mistake and allow him into the race.

Pearce can't be discounted. The old saw we grew up with says: "low-budget; hard message." That means when you have a small campaign treasury like Pearce you hit hard because a negative message is better remembered and not as expensive to communicate as a positive one.

If it works, Pearce can make big strides in a short time, but if not, he will look back on the Summer of '08 as the time when the chance he had for the upset slipped away.

LAID BACK IN D.C.

Even the national R's seem to be laying back on the NM Senate race. Their Senate campaign committee came up with a clever title for a web site--"Udall Against Us All" a take-off on Tom's slogan--"Udall for Us All." Trouble is the R's haven't posted any new material since June 10.

THEY'RE DEBATING THERE

Summer Senate debates are not that unusual as the election cycle has expanded in recent years. In fact, even though he is ranked by various pundits as the Dem most likely to win a Senate seat this year, Virginia's Mark Warner has already debated GOP rival Jim Gilmore. The big issue in their face-off? The same one that Pearce wants to debate Udall on--energy and off-shore drilling.

ON THE MOVE
Holguin
Neri Holguin, the ABQ political consultant, who helped engineer three Dem primary state Senate wins, has now signed up to help southern Dem congressional candidate Harry Teague. She is consulting the campaign on field operations. Holguin will also continue to consult Dem ABQ state Senate contender Tim Eichenberg who defeated John Blair for the nomination for the ABQ NE Heights Senate seat held by Republican Diane Snyder. And that leads back to Blair. Insiders say he's been hired by the NM Obama for president campaign as its political director.

Meanwhile, Snyder is on the fundraising trail to ensure a third four year term. She will hold a $1,000 a pop she calls "Take Me Out To the Ball Game" on July 25th at Isotopes Park. Donors will take in the ball game, have food and drink and enjoy a fireworks display. She's also having a $250 per person fund-raiser August 5 at the Chama River Brewing Company in ABQ. That one is being hosted by a group of GOP state lawmakers, including senate leaders Lee Rawson and Stuart Ingle.

SHENDO'S SILVER

This one caught our eye. Benny Shendo, who was defeated in his bid for the Dem nomination for the northern congressional seat, reports to the FEC that he ended the campaign with $58,000 in cash. We didn't see any debt. Under federal rules, Shendo can't use the leftover money for personal use, but can give it to charity, a political party or refund it to donors. He could also donate to other political campaigns. Wonder if he'll give any of that leftover dough to Ben Ray Lujan who beat him for the Dem nod?

Oh, and one other thing. We haven't see any reports on line or in the press telling us how much GOP US Senate candidate Heather Wilson has left in her campaign account after losing to Steve Pearce. We'll keep looking.

WRONG DIRECTION FOR EAST

The GOP contender for the northern US House seat is Rio Rancho contractor Dan East, and it's a contract with a political consultant that is causing the political newcomer his first headache. Seems you meet all kinds of folks at the airport.

ONE FOR THE RECORD

Congrats to the Roswell Daily Record. Its coverage of the arrest of State Rep. and House minority whip Dan Foley has won the newspaper special recognition from its peers.

West Texas Newspaper Association's "2008 Better Newspaper Contest" saw Record reporter Richard Jacques garner second place for the newspaper in the Special Coverage Award for his reporting on the June 25, 2007 arrest of Foley, R-Roswell, after an altercation during the Gus Macker basketball tournament which was being staged in the back parking lot of the Roswell Mall.

The charges against Foley, including disorderly conduct and obstructing an officer, were eventually dismissed by a special prosecutor, but GOP voters tossed him from office in the June primary, nominating Dennis Kintigh for the seat. Foley has repeatedly blasted the paper, charging bias. But the paper stood its ground and was rewarded for its efforts. The lesson perhaps being that attempts to intimidate the press or blogs like this one are not going to get you very far, but they could get you a one way ticket out of La Politica.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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It looks as though Big Bill is flooding the zone for that special session of the Legislature. The chief executive has unveiled an expanded agenda and he's now talking about having it in early August. That surprised the wall-leaners who were guessing the September session would stick, but an August meet would improve the chances of getting those rebate checks in taxpayers' mailboxes before the November election. All 112 members of the Legislature are up for re-election this year, so they will appreciate that.

The rebates might be seen as chintzy in some quarters. Each taxpayer with an adjusted income below $60,000 gets $150, plus $40 for each dependent. That's good for a couple of tanks of gas. Bill is proposing to stretch that $392 million surplus to cover a lot of territory, not just rebates.

The Guv calls his tax relief a CARE package. CARE is a long-established group devoted to fighting global poverty. Is it that bad around here? Well, if you're making $15 an hour and paying $4 a gallon, it isn't pretty. Bill says his CARE stands for Cash Assistance Relief Effort and New Mexicans are not in need of international relief, but we'd bet there are a few locales around here that wouldn't turn it down.

The Guv also added $100 million worth of road projects to the agenda. Both the rebates and road projects are viewed warmly by Senate Finance Committee Chair John Arthur Smith. However, Smith has panned Bill's original reason for calling the special--a health-care plan to cover uninsured New Mexicans. With the super-sized special, the odds that the Guv will walk away with some success skyrockets.

Meanwhile, Light Guv Denish, who was not at the news conference, put out a news release asking that a measure to address predatory home lending be added to the special agenda. That raised the question of why she had to put out a news release. Couldn't she just pick up the phone? The Guv's spokesman said Di's request would be considered. That sounds chilly, but maybe we're just genetically conspiratorial.

Richardson, always the pragmatist, signaled again that a health-care plan remains highly unlikely in the special. He said he realized he "may not get everything I want," but the special could provide "a strong start" on health-care that could be completed next year. With all the other goodies he is throwing out, the Guv hopes no one even notices.

(The Guv's road release is here. And his release on the tax rebates is here.)

PAPARAZZI EXCLUSIVE

It was one of the most talked-about fund-raisers in years, so we enlisted the local paparazzi to take some snaps of the party that ABQ GOP congressional candidate Darren White held Wednesday night. It featured an appearance by University of New Mexico Lobo basketball coach Steve Alford. As you know by now, after a storm of controversy Coach Steve nixed the idea of White's partygoers having their pic taken with him for $1,000 a shot. He did agree to attend the party at the ABQ North Valley home of UNM lobbyist Joe Thompson, but the NM paparazzi (that would be Mark Bralley) reports: "They snuck Alford in and out through a courted driveway."

The names of those photographed with Sheriff Darren were not available. Hey, the paparazzi can only do so much.

HARRY THE CHICKEN?

Why did Senator Pete Domenici call Senate Dem leader Harry Reid "Chicken." He takes that question on and others in this Fox News video. Domenici, 76, puts on quite the show.

OVER IN NM?

The always entertaining conservative political pundit Bob Novak is dissing McCain's chances here. Bob says our state is "lean Obama" and that McCain should not waste a lot of time here. He cites Hispanic support for Obama in explaining why McCain is lagging.

This reflects a few important factors. Most importantly, the GOP hope to win the Hispanic vote—considering McCain's pro-amnesty stance and the traditional difficulty black politicians have with Hispanics—looks like fantasy. Even in New Mexico, where the Hispanic vote may be more conservative, Democrats appear to be dominating on this score.

We blogged Thursday of a Taos County Dem meeting heavy with Hispanic activists where Obama's candidacy was well-received. But McCain may want to hold off on taking Novak's advice and pull out of the state. There's a long way to go and if something big happens, McCain will need to have a ground and air game positioned to take advantage.

Thanks for making us New Mexico's #1 political Web site.

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Labels: SENATE

You know Obama is on the New Mexico air. You see his first wave of TV spots all the time. But he is also on the ground in a big way. We get the latest from our spotters in Taos and ABQ. First to Taos. Does Obama have to worry about bringing home the Hispanic vote in heavy Democratic northern NM?

There was a party meeting Tuesday night led by County Chair Tomas Tafoya. About 60 activists met...The majority of those present were Hispanic. I have no doubt now that there will be a heavy Hispanic turn out for Obama in Taos County. Both Tuesday night in Taos and Monday night in a Santa Fe Obama meeting, (northern Dem congressional candidate) Ben Ray Lujan gave spirited speeches in support of his own campaign and Obama's...Obama staffers are appearing to work well in the community...

The Obama campaign's penchant for grassroots organizing could make the difference for him in the small towns of the north, but worries about ethnic voting will likely stay with us right up until Election Day.

We also have news of the Obama camp organizing in Bernalillo County where he needs a big showing and a big turnout. One of those attending a recent meeting says Obama's experience as a community organizer in Chicago is in evidence.

The training was mainly about one-on-one organizing. the goal being to create a group of folks throughout the city/state to train other folks. Essentially it's a cascade model that Obama used in Chicago. Training was done by Obama staffers.

That reader reports a large ABQ turnout for the event held at the University of New Mexico Law School. The McCain camp is getting plenty of notice that the fight for this key swing state will not be won on the air alone.

SPECIAL SESSION UPDATE

The wall-leaners were pointing to the second week of September as the most likely date for the special session of the Legislature that Big Bill is calling. But that was before Thursday morning's news conference where Bill was talking about holding the session in early August. It includes cash rebates of $150 plus $40 for each dependent for taxpayers with adjusted income up to $60,000 as well as his health-care plan to cover the uninsured.

DARREN'S DAY

ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Darren White, on the defensive last week over that fund-raiser featuring University of New Mexico basketball coach Steve Alford, worked to get back on the offensive Wednesday. He was using what has become a pretty good issue for Republicans--increase oil drilling to lower gas prices. White scored KOB-TV coverage as he unveiled his sign, "It's the Gas Prices, Stupid," a take-off on Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign slogan, "It's the Economy, Stupid." Okay, no points for originality.

While White said he wanted fewer barriers to drilling oil and supports drilling off-shore and in ANWR, his energy plan on his Web site never mentions the word "drilling." We notice that word is used selectively by politicians who are apparently trying to avoid inflaming environment sensitive voters. Their preferred euphemism is "increase domestic production."

Heinrich was also interviewed for what was one of the first "free media" stories we have had in this race since the June 3 primary. He emphasized developing alternative sources of energy. Ironically, it was enviro Heinrich who actually used the word "drilling," saying: "We can and should drill for oil in many places around the country, but we need clean alternatives. I think we need an Apollo Project for energy independence..." Heinrich remains adamantly against ANWR drilling.

These two candidates are an interesting contrast. White, a former TV reporter, is highly animated. Heinrich is laid back, but articulate. The TV debates between these two--and we're hoping there will be several--will be interesting. Can White pass the substance test in the longer format? Can Heinrich be aggressive enough in making his case? Stay tuned.

ALFORD FALLOUT

We weren't at the fund-raiser White held last night featuring an appearance by UNM Lobo basketball Coach Steve Alford, but we're told by high-ranking UNM officials it could be one of the last times he appears at a political function in his official capacity. The party was held at the home of UNM lobbyist Joe Thompson whose role in the saga is also under scrutiny. Alford says Thompson's invite on behalf of Darren White did not mention that the coach would be having his photo taken with partygoers for $1,000 a pop. Alford vetoed the photo ops, but said he would attend the fund-raiser because he is a "man of his word."

It's the words in the policy being drafted by UNM athletic director Paul Krebs governing the political activity of the school's celebrity coaches and other employees that is of most concern. We're told UNM Prez Schmidly is of a mind to have a policy that puts the fund-raising activity off limits. Alford, caught in the middle, will probably be glad to follow any restrictions, leaving the trap doors of La Politica behind him. When you're making a million bucks a year,
long-term employment is a most desirable goal.

SUMMER FUN

Ready for some summer fun? Here it comes, sung to the tune, "The Times They Are A-Changin." Yeah, now we're really bloggin'.



Thanks for tuning in. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Pearce & Udall
How bad does he want it? Bad enough to tap his personal fortune and write a check for $1 million? That question arose in political circles Tuesday when GOP US Senate nominee Steve Pearce reported he has only $531,000 in cash, a shocking disparity with his Democratic rival Tom Udall who has stockpiled $2.88 million with early in-person voting set to start in around 90 days.

It is a troubling week for the feisty four term congressman from Hobbs. It started with the news here that freshly hired campaign manager Tom Carroll was out the door after only two weeks on the job, and now the news, released Tuesday, that Pearce raised $1.2 million in the second quarter, but had to use much of it to fend off a primary challenge from Heather Wilson. That left his cash coffers in perilous condition. Udall took in $2.13 million in the April-June period. He had no primary opposition.

Can Pearce come with a strong flight of TV ads and start to change the polling numbers that have him badly trailing Udall? That would attract donors. Or does he tap his personal oil fortune for a million bucks and try to change the dynamics of this race now?

Pearce could easily afford to write the check. His financial disclosure shows he is worth up to $33 million, with insiders saying the number is probably around $20 million. Pearce dropping the money bomb would be decried by the Democrats as an act of desperation. They would charge Pearce is trying to buy the seat. But those concerns are way down the list for the Pearce camp. Pearce could easily argue that he won't be as beholden to special interests if he finances a large portion of his effort. Whatever he decides, he better decide soon.

HEINRICH'S HAUL
Heinrich
Another Republican congressional candidate also has some money issues. Not as bad as Pearce's but a bit worrisome. ABQ Dem congressional candidate Martin Heinrich announced Tuesday he raised $578,000 in the April-June quarter, outraising GOP hopeful Darren White who took in $507,000. That is an unusual occurrence for a Dem in the always hard-fought battle for the ABQ congressional seat. However, while Heinrich has been outraising White, he's spending more. The sheriff had cash of $634,000 at the end of June, compared to Heinrich's $354,000. Neither of these candidates appear to have enough money to start TV ads in the next several weeks. We may not see any until the end of August.

There's another angle. The national Dems have said they are ready to buy Heinrich $1.3 million in TV time, and they usually come through in this race. The GOP congressional committee is running low on cash and has not yet made a TV commitment for White. Maybe he will ask the Republican National Committee to pick up the slack. And then there's those "third-party" groups that advocate for a candidate. Who will get the most media support from them?

TEAGUE'S TAKE

Southern Dem congressional hopeful Harry Teague reports his campaign raised $377,000 in the April-June quarter. Republican Ed Tinsley raised $314,485.00 in the quarter. The DCCC says it will come with $1.2 million in TV for Harry of Hobbs, but that commitment may be more dependent on the polls than the national money for Heinrich's effort.

Northern Dem US House nominee Ben Ray Luján will report $330,000 in receipts for the most recent filing period and almost $100,000 cash on hand. Lujan had a stiff challenge in the Dem primary, mainly from wealthy Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott. He is the heavy favorite to take the seat over Republican Dan East and two independent candidates.

MORE MONEY

The money-raising goes on, sometimes quietly. Friday morning Heinrich will host a breakfast at the downtown Flying Star restaurant where attendance is limited to ten. Insiders report it features US House majority whip James Clyburn (D-SC), the third ranking House member. The eggs are going for $1,000 a plate. You get an hour to bend Clyburn's ear.

MAC MEETS BILL

He's a little blurry, but the guy in the center in back of Senator McCain at his Tuesday ABQ town hall meeting is a pretty famous fellow, or at least he used to be. Clapping away is former northern NM GOP US Congressman Bill Redmond. He won in a fluke in a special election in the heavy Dem district in '97. Redmond hasn't been on the circuit much since getting defeated by Tom Udall in'98, but the big events still bring 'em out. Town hall audio here.

One of the Alligators attending the event reports:

"..McCain was on his game cracking jokes, etc. The most newsworthy thing of the whole event was the beginning when they announced former Secretary of the Interior Manuel Lujan as Secretary Ben Lujan...that caused a lot of gasps and laughs....

Our Gator also poked around for news on who might be brought aboard to serve as Pearce's campaign manager in light of our Monday exclusive reporting that after two weeks veteran Tom Carroll was out the door.

Seems (NY media consultant Arthur) Finklestein and Bob Carter (Pearce's Chief of Staff) will be steering the boat from here on out..I haven't heard that they are looking for anyone.

GAS ATTACK

Several e-mailers opine that the R's aren't any better than the D's when it comes to finding solutions to bring down sky-high gas prices. Tom Udall came with a TV ad this week that outlined steps to lower gas prices now, but we pointed out his solutions--not without merit--would not influence gas prices today. Reader Isaac Martinez came with this rejoinder:

While you are absolutely right that these are all long-term solutions, you fail to mention that the Republicans' solution (at least that supported by George Bush, John McCain, and Steve Pearce), of lifting the ban on exploring the Outer Continental Shelf and ANWR for oil deposits is, in some ways, an even longer-term proposal, and would only lower the price of gas negligibly. The basic truth is there is no short-term 'silver bullet' that will bring oil and gas prices down.

The USA's situation today reminds us of the Watergate years of 1973-74 when we first had an oil crisis. That we have not solved the energy dilemma is one of the great failures in the history of American government and politics. The nation cries out for leadership. Will we get it?

MORE BLOG TALK

ABQ talk radio pioneer Mike Santullo wants in on the little discussion we've had here lately on blogs. It broke out when last week a reader was distressed over our favorable review of a local restaurant. Says Santullo:

This person needs to know that a blog is not a straight newspaper or reporting service per se. In fact, a blog is the musings of an individual...And for him/her to come across as though you are committing some mortal sin is ridiculous. You have NO obligation whatsoever to be impartial in a blog. Rather, you do so out of sheer preference, but it is certainly NOT obligatory. Let's have some blog education here.

You're right, Mike. It is this blogger's preference to try to be impartial on political matters --or at least fair--but as you say, a blog is what each blogger makes it.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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McCain in ABQ by Mark
Numbers were still being added up for that ABQ McCain fundraiser held at the Hilton Inn Monday night but Ken Zangara, McCain's NM finance director, pronounced the evening "great," saying about 200 of the state's top R's were in attendance. The cheap seats were going for $1,000 a pop.

When we blogged the upcoming fundraiser last month, we speculated that with a shaky economy and the Republican base generally unenthusiastic, Zangara would have his work cut out for him. He seemed to think he had succeeded. KOAT-TV was reporting the take may have been as high as $400,000, with some of the money going to the state GOP. Apparently high gas and low stock prices aren't yet hurting the GOP upper crust. At the dinner they dined on steak and shrimp.

Among those on hand at the McCain party: GOP US Senate nominee Steve Pearce, ABQ GOP US Rep. Heather Wilson, Northern GOP congressional candidate Dan East and former ABQ GOP US Rep. Manuel Lujan. Also spotted in the crowd was former Colorado GOP US Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell.

McCain arrived at Cutter Flying Service about 4:30 p.m., but he could have been anywhere, glued as he was to his cell phone as he made his way down the plane's steps. Among those greeting the Arizona senator were ABQ attorney Jon Barela, Dorothy Rainosek, co-owner of ABQ's Frontier Restaurant, Ron Toya, GOP candidate for state House district 17 and a Jemez Pueblo native and Paula Papponi, the GOP candidate for the Rio Rancho state House seat (HD 60) being vacated by Rio Rancho Mayor Tom Swisstack.

After the greeting McCain boarded his bus and did about 25 minutes with a group of five NM news reporters as he made his way to the Hilton. They were: Barry Massey of the Associated Press, Jeff Jones of the ABQ Journal, Kate Nash of the Santa Fe New Mexican, Heath Haussamen of the NM Independent and Peter St. Cyr of KKOB-AM radio. Policy wonks can hear it here.

McCain will do some meetings this morning and then at 10 a.m. go public with a town hall at the Hotel ABQ near Old Town. The town hall will be streamed on the KOAT site.

Like Obama's recent ABQ stop, McCain's visit received good TV coverage on a slow summer news day. Also like Obama, he doled out interviews to the major network affiliates.

McCain appeared at ease. The Vietnam war vet knows he has appeal to Native Americans and Hispanics not normally associated with the GOP Prez nominee. Perhaps we'll see him make a foray into the Spanish North before this campaign ends.

UDALL'S GAS AD

Just how much fuel is the Republican cry for more oil drilling putting in their campaign tank? More than a little, judging by the latest TV ad from Dem US Senate nominee Tom Udall. In it, he asks whether there's anything that can be done right now to lower gas prices. He then answers his own question by saying we need to "stop hedge fund speculators from driving up the price of oil." He also calls for taking tax breaks away from oil companies that don't build "new clean refineries." Finally, he urges us to "get serious about alternative energy" and says record profits for oil companies while we pay record prices for gasoline "is wrong."

The ad is aimed at getting voter focus off of GOP calls for more oil drilling, a policy that's finding significant support but is a weak suit for the Dems and environmentalist Udall.

Udall's fact sheet for the ad asserts that as much as $40 of the cost of a barrel of oil is caused by speculation. That contention, however, is hotly disputed, even among experts. Building more refineries would bring prices down by creating more supply, but that would take at least several years. Development of alternate energy sources is also a long-term solution, not something we can use to bring prices down "now." That's why the high price of gas remains such a dangerous issue.

THEN AND NOW

The battle for the ABQ congressional seat is going to be hard fought this year, but won't match the intensity we had two years ago when Rep. Heather Wilson narrowly defeated Democrat Patricia Madrid by less than 900 votes. GOP Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White reports he raised $507,000 in the April-June quarter, including money raised from President Bush's May visit. White says that leaves him with $634,000 in cash on hand. At this time in '06, Wilson had a mountain of cash--$1.637 million. White's total fund-raising hasn't reached that mark. So far, he has taken in $1.107.

Democrat Heinrich also lags far behind what the 2006 Dem nominee, Patricia Madrid, had in the bank at this time. At the end of March, Heinrich reported $342, 000 cash. Madrid had $826,000 in cash at the same time two years ago. Heinrich will come with his second quarter fund-raising totals today, as well as a new cash on hand total. As of the end of March, the Dem had pulled off the unusual feat of raising more money overall than the Republican contender, collecting $667,00 to White's $601,000. Heinrich is likely to keep a lead following his report today.

What this tells us is that there is enthusiasm for the Dem candidate, but perhaps not as much as in 2006 when the Dems were fighting for control of the US House. Now that they have control, the importance of the ABQ race has come down a notch. That White is not posting bigger numbers confirms what every poll is showing--enthusiasm for R's even among may R's is in the cellar. Also, the absence of an incumbent in the race is also impacting money flowing to the ABQ contest.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Our Monday tidbit about Santa Fe County Commissioner Mike Anaya being named head of the NM Association of Counties drew some additional news. Anaya will not be eligible to run for another commission term in 2010. He plans on seeking the Dem nod for state land commissioner...

Reader Kevin Reagan reacts to last Wednesday's blog where we ran a critical note from a reader who did not like our favorable review of an ABQ restaurant and wondered whether we had an interest in the eatery. We answered that we didn't, but Reagan maintained we should not have even bothered with an answer.

"Joe, don't be bamboozled by the muffins who demand full disclosure for everything and everyone. You run a blog, for heavens sakes!. It's your opinions up here, not an impartial objective discourse. Anyone who says you need to disclose doesn't understand blogs and the web. And passing along opinions of food goes hand in hand with politics. It's New Mexico! Viva frijoles!

Thanks, Kevin.

News? Comments? Send them via email.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Steve Pearce
Tom Carroll barely had time to find a parking place at Steve Pearce's US Senate campaign headquarters. Turns out he won't be needing one. Insiders report Carroll, hired as Pearce's campaign manger only a couple of weeks ago, is headed for the exits. Carroll wasn't talking, but one of the Alligators opened up.

"It appears there was a conflict with what Tom wanted to do and what Pearce's other advisers wanted. He submitted a campaign plan that conflicted with their ideas," detailed our insider.

Carroll, who once served as NM GOP executive director and who runs his own PR firm, has consulted numerous campaigns.

Carroll is a hard charger and so is Pearce's longtime media adviser Arthur Finkelstein of NYC. Pearce is also no slouch. His Washington office is known for having high personnel turnover. No word on who the new campaign manager will be.

The southern NM GOP congressman faces an uphill battle against his well-financed Dem foe, Tom Udall, who has been building points on the TV airwaves since the June primary ended.

Veteran New Mexican political analysts--both D and R--are still not writing off the possibility of a Pearce upset, citing the state's history and independent streak. And the middle of July is a better time than October for some old fashioned campaign power struggles, but Pearce needs to start showing stronger command and control. If he can't do it now, voters may ask how he'll do it in the US Senate.

BILL AND DR. NO
Smith aka "Dr. No"
Big Bill has found an exit strategy for a special session of the Legislature that look liked it was coming off the tracks before it even left the station. The Guv has added an item to the session, now set for early September, that is sure to win widespread support--rebating some of the millions of dollars from the state's oil and gas surplus to Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico.

There's nothing like putting a big check in taxpayers' mailboxes just days before the November election to win friends and influence voters. Come to think of it, if your approval rating has dipped below 50% for the first time in your term as Governor, it might also help you, even if that health care plan stays bottled up.

The special has been derided ever since the Guv conceived it. He wants it to produce a plan to provide health insurance coverage for all New Mexicans. But recalcitrant senators have signaled it is a no go. Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith is the face of the formidable opposition. He says the state's finances can't support free coverage for all. For that, the Deming lawmaker was given special gubernatorial attention:

"I am tired of members of the Senate—some members of the Senate—constantly saying no to any kind of progress on education reform, on health care," said Richardson. "I am tired of these 'Dr. No's.' Ever since I've come into office ... we've had substantial progress despite their dire predictions, which continue unabated every year."

Bill took us back to 1962 with that "Dr. No" reference. That's the title of the first James Bond spy movie. Wonder why he chose that moniker for Smith and Company? Maybe the Guv was studying briefing papers on how to become secretary of state and the reference was subliminal? Or maybe he is copying McCain who sometimes refers to Obama as Dr. No.

But back to that still to be scheduled September special. Rebating money is, of course, good politics, but it can also be argued that it's darn good policy. The state has wracked up huge surpluses just about every year Bill has held office and we've had only one round of rebate checks. With gas and food prices headed as high as Wheeler Peak, relief is in order. Hey, if they rebate enough cash, maybe we'll use some to rent that "Dr. No" DVD.

BY THE NUMBERS

The state Democratic Party is out with a news release trumpeting the voter registration totals for the first half of the year, saying, "Democratic New Voter Registrations More Than Double Republicans in First Six Months of 2008." But how big a deal is that? First the numbers.

Since January of this year, 51,938 New Mexicans registered to vote. 27,207 of those individuals have registered as Democrats, more than double the number of voters that registered as Republicans. 12,926 voters registered as Republicans, while 11,805 registered as Independents according to the office of the Secretary of the State.

Dems can take comfort that they are indeed out registering the R's, but independents have most reason to celebrate. Currently, 50% of all NM registered voters are Democrats. In the first half of 2008, 52% of the newly registered did so as Dems, an improvement of two percent. Nice, but not that big of a deal. The R's did take a beating among the newly registered, garnering only 25%, compared to the 33% they currently have on the rolls. But it was the independents who made the big leap. Currently, 15% of registered voters in the state are independents, but among the newly registered that number jumped to 22%--a much better performance than either major party, and the true sign of the times.

DIVING DEEP

Let's go deeper into that poll ABQ congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich released last week showing him beating Republican Darren White 47 to 44%. We pointed out that the survey identified Heinrich as the Dem and White as the R, which very likely bumped up Heinrich's number. Reader Fred Sisneros adds an angle worth noting.

Joe, interesting poll...I think it shows how bad it could be for anyone with an R next to their name...The November ballot will list party affiliation, which should be a big positive for Martin. Considering how little of a fight Martin has put up, he should be feeling good...

Tying White firmly to Bush and the GOP is Heinrich's obvious path to success. Insider polling shows White garnering 50% of the independent vote. That is way too high for Heinrich's camp. As Bernallio County Sheriff White has been able to project a nonpartisan image. As for those many Dems who cross over to the R's, Heinrich will try to ride the wave that is expected to form for Obama in Bernallio county. He could do that by coordinating his campaign with that of Obama's.

DARREN'S DILEMMA

Insiders report there's been a hold-up in the expected endorsement of Republican White by National Right to Life. They say the sheriff is reluctant to fill out the questionnaire from the anti-abortion group. The right to life position can be tricky in the ABQ area where many voters are pro-choice. ABQ GOP Rep. Heather Wilson broke with the group when she voted to override President Bush's veto of a bill supporting stem cell research. When he sought the GOP nod for a state legislative seat a number of years ago, White announced himself a right-to-life candidate. But that was then. The stakes are higher now, and the questions await answering. Stay tuned.

THE BOTTOM LINES
Mike Anaya
We thought Mike Anaya might be related to the famous Anaya clan in Moriarty--the one that produced Governor Toney Anaya.
But we're informed he isn't. Still, Mike Anaya has politics in his blood. The Santa Fe county commissioner has been named president of the NM Association of counties for the coming year. His dad, the late Joe Anaya, served on the old state highway commission and Governor King named a building in his honor...Here's a long overdue correction. Months ago we blogged that ABQ police spokesman John Walsh had once been a reporter for the ABQ Tribune. Turns out that was another John Walsh...Speaking of the Trib, the last editor of the now defunct afternoon paper, Phil Casaus, has taken a job in Denver with the Rocky Mountain News....Also, on the ink-stained front, Arthur Alpert, who was a columnist for the Trib, is now doing it on-line for the NM Independent...

Keep us in the loop. Send your news and comments via e-mail.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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The party will go on, but without the $1,000 pics. That was the word Thursday as University of New Mexico basketball coach Steve Alford, hoping to put behind him his baptism in the state's perfidious political waters, announced he will still attend a July 16th fundraiser for ABQ GOP congressional candidate Darren White, but will not permit pictures of him to be taken with partygoers and sold for a thousand a pop. The money was to have gone to White's campaign kitty.

Announcing the news on 770 KKOB-AM, sportsmeister Scott Stiegler said Alford described himself "as a man of his word" and said despite the hyper-controversy over his role at the party, he will still attend White's "An evening with Coach Steve Alford " scheduled for the home of UNM lobbyist Joe Thompson. The party is being co-hosted by UNM regents Jack Fortner and Don Chalmers.

After several days of white-hot debate, (yeah, that's a pun) Alford told the state it is his policy not to charge fans for autographs or photos, and that he does not endorse political candidates. That would seem to rule out future fundraising events involving the coach, who said he was duped into agreeing to appear at the White party because it was "falsely advertised."

UNM athletic boss Paul Krebs says there will be guidelines drafted for employee politicking. That should make for interesting half-time reading. Give a couple of copies to the Lobo Club, Paul. They seem very interested.

White took a hit for his role in the controversy because it appeared his campaign was reeling the coach in without telling him the whole story, but it was not partisan politics aimed at Darren; it was and is about the role of politics--D or R--at UNM. But we've already said that and more this week. (Head Lobo junkie Rick Wright is on the same page, opining here.)

Alford, who must have heard of New Mexico's reputation for "all-politics-all-the-time" before heading here, has now had his political virginity taken. Welcome to the club, Steve. You really aren't in Iowa anymore.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Alford and White
University of New Mexico head basketball coach Steve Alford was playing political hardball Wednesday as the controversy over his attendance at a fund-raiser for ABQ GOP congressional contender Darren White moved off this blog and into the outside media. "I wouldn't know Darren White if he walked in front of me. It got falsely advertised. I was just stopping by," declared the celebrity coach.

It doesn't look like Coach Steve will be posing for those thousand dollar photos with partygoers after all, does it? Whether Alford will be there in any role remains under discussion.

It was those photos, promoted on the White fund-raising invitation, that fueled the fury that now has UNM Vice-President for Athletics Paul Krebs again repeating that Alford is not endorsing White and that there will be guidelines to avert a future donnybrook.

"I would strongly advocate we not publicly endorse political figures, because I think it jeopardizes our program and it compromises our fan base," Krebs told the ABQ Journal.

The newspaper July 4th carried a brief note of the July 16th White fundraiser dubbed "An Evening With Coach Alford," but it was this past Tuesday's blog quoting a Senior Alligator outraged that the coach would raise money by having his picture taken with partygoers that was used to heat the airwaves of talk radio giant 770 KKOB-AM and KOB-TV and advance the story.

Sheriff White told TV veteran Stuart Dyson that the criticism of the event was politically motivated. He cited fund-raisers Alford previously attended for Big Bill and Dem congressional candidate Harry Teague. White had a point, but it appeared Alford had hob knobbed at those events, not had his picture sold for a $1,000 a pop. That was brand new territory, according to the dean of ABQ sportswriters.

"It is unprecedented in my 30 years of covering the Lobos," said Rick Wright from the Journal newsroom, where political writer Jeff Jones and sports maven Mark Smith were putting together their story. Wright promised comment in his Friday column.

The White party was arranged by UNM lobbyist and former GOP State Rep. Joe Thompson. He e-mailed Alford to get confirmation for his attendance, which he got, but the exchange of e-mails appeared to leave open whether Thompson had fully informed Alford on what he was to do at the event.

LESSONS LEARNED?

This latest saga of La Politica is really not about Sheriff White and partisan politics. It is about the political judgement of the University of New Mexico. It is also about UNM employees--especially celebrity employees like Alford--using their state bestowed titles to raise money for political candidates. Vice-President Krebs and Alford played with fire and got burned. The flames were fanned by the Board of Regents. Two regents were co-hosting the White event. Veteran politico Jamie Koch is president of the board. He's now proposing that regents not be allowed to organize political fundraisers headlined by a UNM employee.

Krebs and Koch ought not to take baby steps in drafting guidelines for their respective purviews. What kind of coaches are they going to get if the job includes being a political pawn and a party ornament? Political involvement like that also risks making enemies as well as friends. That can negatively impact funding for UNM in Santa Fe and Washington. New Mexico institutions are already drenched in politics. The UNM sports program ought to be a dry zone.

PEELING THE LATEST POLL
Heinrich
You've got to constantly peel the onion in this political game and we were reminded of that once again when ABQ Dem congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich hit the streets with a poll that showed him beating Republican Darren White 47% to 44%. That's a real eyebrow raiser and contrary to the conventional wisdom that Sheriff White, with about 90% name ID, holds the lead at the start of this race. It turns out he probably does.

The key to the June 29-July 2 Heinrich poll is the phrasing of the question:

"Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in November, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today and the candidates were Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Darren White -- for whom would you vote, Democrat Martin Heinrich or Republican Darren White?"

Most polls do not include the candidate's political party. In this case, clearly identifying Heinrich as the Democrat and White as the R, likely boosted Heinrich's numbers. Ask the question without the party identifier and you are likely to get an entirely different result.

In fact, Republican insiders say White is right on the 50% mark and Heinrich is in the 30's in polling conducted in the same time frame as Heinrich's. That is similar to a poll the White campaign did last year. Have things stayed static in the ABQ race? There's reason to believe so. Heinrich's primary media buy--TV and mail--was relatively small and short in duration.

So just where does the race stand? White remains the clear frontrunner, but Heinrich's poll shows the potential for another close ABQ US House race.

JIMENEZ AND PERLMAN

So what gives with Big Bill Chief of Staff James Jimenez? The Alligators were certain he had turned in his walking papers. We headlined their "news" in a post Fourth of July blog. But the ABQ Journal, picking up on our report, is told by the Guv's office that Jimenez has indeed been approached with unspecified job offers, but as far as Jimenez leaving, a Guv's spokesman says: "I don't think there's anything imminent. He's still the chief of staff."

Did the Alligators jump out of the pond too soon on this one? Maybe, but it seems clear that Jimenez is casting about, especially as the presidential election draws closer. If Obama wins and Big Bill gets a job and leaves, Jimenez would not be working with new Guv Diane Denish.

By the way, the Journal reported that "despite Internet reports to the contrary" Jimenez was still around. Well, this blog is those "Internet reports." However, we won't be using that as our new domain name, despite the paper's encouragement.

The Gators also had Deputy Chief of Staff Brian Condit succeeding Jimenez when he did hit the exits. While any such move is on hold, word comes from Santa Fe that former ABQ Chief Administrative Officer Bruce Perlman, who recently resigned from the city, will become a deputy chief of staff for Big Bill. Michelle Welby, the Guv's health-policy adviser, is leaving and insiders say Perlman, among other things, will pick up responsibility in that area. Condit is deputy chief of staff for legislative and political affairs.

Perlman had enough of the ABQ hot seat, answering to the demanding Mayor Chavez, but where he's headed the temperature won't be going down much, especially with health-care in his portfolio. Read on....

HEALTHY SURPLUS FOR HEALTH?

Big Bill didn't waste any time bringing up the subject of a special legislative session when the rosy new state revenue projections were announced. Those numbers continue to show our little ol' state awash in the green stuff as a result of the black stuff--oil. Natural gas prices are bringing in even more money. Prices for both resources have been soaring for better than a year. And as for all the legislators and wall-leaners who think Bill will end up not calling a special to deal with health care, don't unpack your bags. From the Guv's office:

The state is projected to have $392 million in new money for the upcoming budget year. The Governor said the new money will be on the table when he calls the Legislature into a special session to address access to universal health coverage. "We can invest in health coverage in a fiscally responsible way. While cynics will no doubt complain about using revenue from oil and gas, I am confident..that New Mexico's economy is performing well and will allow us to expand health care coverage to all New Mexicans." Richardson said.

We seem to be headed for another showdown, with key legislators like Senate Finance Committee Chair John Arthur Smith telling the AP some of the surplus should be rebated to taxpayers to help them with the high cost of gas. And Smith adds more fuel to the fire by telling Bill that oil and gas money is too volatile an income source to use for a permanent health care fix.

Richardson previously said if he did not get a deal in a special, he would take what does get done to the regular 2009 sixty-day session. By lowering expectations for a special in either August or September, the cynics wonder whether the Guv is doing more grandstanding than governing. But Bill's backers relish his brinkmanship.

You mean all that talk of a possible health agreement between Bill and the Senate was just that? Seems so--at least so far. Stay tuned.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Krebs & Thompson
The University of New Mexico went into damage control mode Tuesday following our report detailing how UNM Lobo basketball coach Steve Alford would pose for VIP photos for $1000 a pop at a party to benefit the campaign of ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Darren White. Paul Krebs, Vice-President for Athletics for UNM, told KKOB-AM radio that he and Alford were unaware that the coach's appearance at the July 16th event at the home of UNM lobbyist Joe Thompson would be used to raise money for White. Krebs said he asked Alford to attend the event to hob knob, not to endorse White or raise money for his campaign. Kreb's assertion that neither he or Alford knew the intent of the event was met with disbelief by some of the radio station's callers. But others strongly felt the non-political Krebs and Alford were duped into participating.

If Alford did not know the event was going to be billed as "An Evening With Coach Steve Alford" and that photo ops with him were being shopped for White, will he now cancel attending and/or the photo ops? Krebs told KKOB there will be a discussion of Alford's role. Krebs said Alford was out of town Tuesday. The White campaign nor lobbyist Joe Thompson issued statements. Two UNM regents, Republicans Jack Fortner and Don Chalmers are listed among the other headliners for the fundraiser.

This political mess would seem to be a made-to-order opportunity for White opponent Democrat Martin Heinrich to step up to bat, but when asked his campaign had no comment. Prominent Democrats Jamie Koch and Raymond Sanchez are also members of the UNM regents. Still, Heinrich could show his independence, always a key theme in elections for the ABQ swing district.

Alford previously attended a fundraising event for Dem congressional candidate Harry Teague, but was not in the starring role or, to our knowledge, getting his photo snapped to raise money for the campaign. But by attending two events of two different political parties, Alford risks appearing as a political tool, under the direction of lobbyists.

Someone needs to take action and it looks like it falls to Krebs. If Alford's role was misrepresented, as Krebs asserts, who made the misrepresentation? Also, Krebs and company need to have firm guidelines for using a state bestowed title like "coach" on the treacherous playing field of La Politica, and the sooner the better

READER REACTION

E-mail took both sides of the Alford story

Alford is of course a private citizen BUT he's using his title, from a state supported institution. Doesn't NM have any rules about public employee's not getting involved in campaigns? Colorado has had such a law since I was a kid and I'm ancient!

The Alford so-called controversy is not a big deal. Given the fact King Bill and his storm-troopers have politicized UNM and just about every thing they can get their hands on I say it's about time the R's had their turn...What Steve Alford does with his private time is his business. At least he's not jetting around the world on trumped up diplomatic missions which are nothing more than something to further Big Bill's image to gain a political appointment...

TEAGUE TIME
Harry Teague
Democrats hoping to make history this year and take over the southern NM congressional seat have a steep hill to climb, According to fresh insider polling, Democrat Harry Teague trails Republican Ed Tinsley by about eight points in an independent survey and by seven in a political party poll, according to our Alligators. The good news for Teague is that Tinsley is polling well below the 50% level, meaning the race is still wide open, but leaning towards the R.

Teague needs unity and money. He will work to get both July 15th when Big Bill hosts a fundraiser for him at the home of Las Cruces State Rep. Joe Cervantes. Cervantes briefly sought the Dem nomination for the seat, but stepped aside after just a couple of weeks, citing family concerns. Teague went on to defeat Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley 52 percent to 48 percent--a margin of victory that gave him little momentum.

Teague never did speak directly to voters in his numerous TV ads. His handlers judged him as not ready for prime-time. Tinsley did speak directly to the camera and it is credited with helping to put him over the top in a five way GOP primary. Teague of Hobbs spent nearly $800,000 of his personal oil fortune on the primary. The money has gotten him before the voters, now he needs to connect with them.

McCAIN NM VISIT

Ken Zangara, hosting a high-dollar fundraiser for John McCain next Monday, has run out of elbow room at his house and moved the event to the ABQ Hilton. Car dealer Zangara is the NM finance chair for the McCain campaign. The Arizona Senator will overnight in ABQ and then hold a 10 a.m. town hall meeting at the Hotel ABQ near Old Town. However, tickets for that event are all gone. Both McCain and Obama Tuesday were pitching their economic plans to Hispanic voters at their appearances at the Washington LULAC convention.

EXPLORING EXPO

Is it time for Mayor Chavez and the ABQ city council to join with the state and support a world-class arena on the site of EXPO NM? The timing is right. The Guv's decision to seek ideas on how to renovate the 70 year old state fairgrounds, including what to do with decrepit Tingley Coliseum, has raised hopes that ABQ's arena obsession can finally be resolved.

If the state is involved in developing the facility, it could be done without a tax increase and be placed in an area that city residents support. It's been made clear to city leaders that there is no support for raising taxes to build a downtown arena, and they can't do it without a tax increase. The cost of building an arena at EXPO would be shouldered by all New Mexicans. What a great opportunity for cooperation between the city and state, if elected officials are willing to look past parochial interests and see the big picture.

HIDDEN BIAS?

Good news just doesn't sell. We strayed from politics Tuesday to do a brief restaurant review, an occasional habit around here. In turn, we got this review:

It beats me why you are touting, pushing, free advertising for a restaurant (Nob hill eatery) in your column. Do you own a piece of it? If you do (wife, best friend, column contributor) just say so! It's called 'full disclosure.' I honestly don't mean to be snotty, it just seems inappropriate for one who tries so hard to be impartial!

Does this mean I have to disclose the offshore accounts, too? For the record, no, I don't have an interest in that or any other restaurant, but I do whip up a mean veal scaloppini.

Thoughts? Comments/ Criticism? Campaign news? E-mail it in.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Coach Steve Alford
Lobo fans love controversy on the basketball court, but now they're getting some off the court as University of New Mexico basketball coach Steve Alford lends his name and fundraising power to the campaign of ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Darren White.

The invitation for the White fundraiser says it's "An Evening with Coach Steve Alford." It also features two UNM Regents as major sponsors--Don Chalmers and Jack Fortner. The July 16th event will be held at the home of UNM lobbyist Joe Thompson. A VIP photo op with Alford is being peddled for $1000 a pop. Other tickets are priced at $250 each.

Alford is a private citizen and can support whomever he wants, but he's also pulling down a million bucks a year to enhance the Lobo basketball program and the image of UNM. His high-profile foray into local politics is drawing fire as seen in this e-mail from a Senior Alligator

This is a terrible mistake for UNM...Alford is now pushing his politics on fans by supporting the Republican candidate. Steve should have better judgment than to be involved in this and so should Chalmers and Fortner. Joe Thompson is doing what one would expect from a lobbyist...Does the president approve of the politicization of the basketball program? If coaches are going to be used for fundraising it should be for the UNM not politicians. We already have the problem of a micromanaging group of regents and now this.

Alford's involvement in La Politica isn't limited to Darren White and the R's. In May, he attended a fundraising event for southern NM Dem congressional candidate Harry Teague that was headlined by Chicago Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher.

Observers note that the UNM regents have been top-heavy with political players since Big Bill began naming the panel. Republican Fortner is a former San Juan county commissioner who has talked about ruining for governor. Regents president Jamie Koch is a longtime Dem party fundraiser and former NM Dem chairman. Democrat Raymond Sanchez is the former speaker of the NM House of Representatives. UNM President David Schmidly gave $2300 to Gov. Bill Richardson’s presidential campaign less than a month after Schmidly was announced as the new president.

Against that backdrop Alford's' political involvement seems mundane. Still, like some of the refs calls you see in the Pit, this is a close one. Thoughts? E-mail them in. Are the sports talk radio guys talking about this?

BILL'S WORLD

Don't tease the gorilla is the moral of this next story. Governor Big Bill, seemingly in no rush to bang the drum for ABQ Dem congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich, was stirred from his Cape Cod vacation by a New York Times quote that could, a Guv associate says, give him reason to get busy on the campaign trail for Heinrich.

The Times described the heat Bill took for not getting fully behind a cockfighting ban and how when he did, in 2007, he was accused of dong so only because he was running for president. Here's the money quote from White:

“You can’t go on the national stage and have people find out you have no problem with a bloody sport,” said Sheriff Darren White...

That shot from White drew some-behind the-scenes return fire, with the Guv's sympathizer wondering aloud about the use of federal DWI funds by the sheriff's office and a number of other issues that could be quickly interjected onto the campaign trail.

When Richardson took office in 2003, White was a frequent public critic, but soon fell quiet. Why rattle the cage now when you are the frontrunner for a US House seat?

McCAIN'S MEETING

Visits by the prez candidates to our key swing state this year are going to be as routine as a Marty Chavez news conference. GOP contender John McCain is making his second one of the season soon. His campaign says he will hold a town hall meeting in ABQ the morning of July 15th. That will come on the heels of a big-league fundraiser he will have the night before at the home of his NM fundraising chief--car dealer Ken Zangara. We gave you the exclusive details on that last month.

McCain is competitive in New Mexico. Obama is ahead in the polls, but still in sight. The Arizona senator has particular appeal among the many military veterans here. He also has appeal among the fastest growing segment of the electorate--independents. Obama will try to overpower him by bringing aboard new voters in the cities of ABQ, Santa Fe and Las Cruces. McCain could surprise by holding Obama's totals down in the Hispanic north where Obama could run into some headwinds. Obama is the frontrunner, but the state should stay in play if McCain does not veer too far right.

SENATE CHASE

Can Steve Pearce get the US Senate race in play? He will need plenty of money to do so. Dem nominee Tom Udall Monday announced he raised $2.1 million in the April-June quarter. The campaign did not say how much cash it has on hand, but it is spending plenty. Udall continues to come with new TV spots like this one.

Pearce has had to regroup after his hot GOP primary contest with Rep. Heather Wilson, but insiders expect the southern NM congressman to be up on TV before the month is out. Letting Udall have the airwaves alone any longer is seen as too dangerous.

Udall is polling solidly above the magic 50% mark. Ironically, his polling success could make the financial road a bit bumpy. Why will national Dems want to give him money when he is so far ahead? But the burden is all on underdog Pearce. He has plenty of time to get the race in play and he will come up with the money, but does he have the message? Stay tuned.

CHAVEZ'S NEW TEAM
Pete Dinelli
He's earned the nickname "Demoliton Dinelli" for all the tear downs of eyesore ABQ properties he has supervised, but now assistant city attorney Pete Dinelli has been kicked upstairs, leaving the wrecking ball to someone else. Dinelli has been named by Mayor Chavez as chief public safety officer, overseeing the police and fire departments. His Honor also named Irene Garcia as the city's chief operating officer, replacing Ed Adams who moves up to replace Bruce Perlman who resigned as chief administrative officer. Anna Lamberson has been named chief financial officer.

Chavez says the new team will help him deal with today's "economic challenges." They are quite able, but if they get on the "higher taxes for a downtown arena bandwagon" during this recession, he and his team are going to be stepping into a deep hole. Also, the mayor's traditional soft spot for the police and fire departments has been showing of late and the headlines have been reflecting it. Can Marty look the other way and let Dinelli send a message?

Dinelli has said he would run for mayor in 2009 if Chavez did not seek another term. But all signs point to a re-elect drive by Chavez unless Obama gets elected and offers the mayor a job. Chavez still commands wide, if sometimes begrudging support. However, a third consecutive term is not going to be a no-brainer. If the new team falters, it could encourage a political heavyweight or two to come off the bench and get in the game.

SUMMER SLUMMIN'

ABQ's recently opened Nob Hill Bar & Grill is a welcome addition to the scene. It's actually more grill than bar, with an array of booths and tables that provide plenty of elbow room between you and your neighbor. That's good for political types who don't need anyone listening in as they do their dissing. The place also has a decent sized outdoor patio, where you can enjoy the traditional Albuquerque al fresco pastime of breathing Central Avenue generated carbon monoxide. Service, always a hit or miss proposition in our village, was a hit during our visit. Best of all, they pipe in jazz vocals from Frank and other notables. Second best is that the place is new which means clean. (Can't someone spruce up Kelly's up the street?)

The chef for this joint is well-known and knows all the tricks, so I won't get into the menu, but if you like French onion soup, you'll want to try theirs.

The metro area is headed towards a million population in the not too distant future. It's nice to see a restaurant or two starting to act like it.

E-mail your political news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Brian Condit
As the bombs burst in air this Fourth of July, politicos wondered what kind of political bombshells would be set off in the second half of what will be an election year for the books. Even as they paused to contemplate what's to come, there was breaking news for the state's political elite to chew on along with their perfectly charbroiled burgers and homemade potato salads. Insiders were spreading word that Big Bill Chief of Staff James Jimenez was calling it quits and would be replaced by Deputy Chief of Staff Brian Condit.

The Jimenez news did not overwhelm--he has two years and two months with the hard driving and hyperactive chief executive--but it did renew speculation on that special session of the NM Legislature on health care that Big Bill assures us is coming. However, there is increasing skepticism from a variety of corners. Whether Bill--and now Condit--can pull off the session--or cancel it with aplomb--will tell us if this lame-duck administration has much juice left or whether Bill and Company, as the kids say, have jumped the shark.

As for Jimenez, he's a government pro who was previously head of the Department of Finance Administration as well as city manager of Rio Rancho. That city now has a new mayor--State Rep. Tom Swisstack--giving rise to speculation that Jimenez might just get called back to duty there. Whatever he does will surely not compete with the thrills and spills of being by Bill's side.

No one is going to begrudge Condit, a former union president, the higher salary he will draw in his new job. If Obama does not get elected and Big Bill finds himself completing the final two years of his second term, Condit and the rest of the Fourth Floor staff may end up eligible for combat pay.

BIDEN AND BILL

Speaking of Bill wandering off the Old Santa Fe Trail, in that regard any good news for Joe Biden's vice-presidential chances is good news for our Guv. If Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is picked by Obama for the veep slot and the team wins the White House, that would mean one less competitor for the post that Richardson covets--Secretary of State. Bill has fallen off the veep lists, but his name is still in circulation for SOS. Biden is still a hot prospect for veep and SOS. Not that this corner is pulling for his departure. Politics around here without Richardson would be like the Fourth of July without fireworks.

SEEKING A KINGDOM?
AG King
One of the many who tried and failed to thwart Richardson's rise to the top may still be infected with Fourth Floor fever. When they were not oohing and aaahing at the annual fireworks display put on by Attorney General Gary King, insiders report that partygoers at his ranch Saturday night were chattering that King, who told me in May of '07 he would not seek the Dem nod again for Guv, has now commissioned a poll to take a look at the political landscape.

Making a third run in 2010 for the Dem nod for Guv would take some political bravery. King would have to give up his chance for a second AG term. But if Bill stays around here, Light Guv Denish stays Light Guv. If she's not an incumbent, the Dem 2010 Dem field could get as crowded as Elephant Butte on the Fourth. On the other hand, an early Denish ascension to the Guv's chair could thin the crowd faster than a Roman Candle burns.

UDALL DYNASTY?

Two open US Senate seats. Two Udalls seeking them. Their slogan? "Vote for the Udall Nearest You." But is the Udall trademark environmentalism becoming a black mark in this era of spiraling gas prices? New York Times coverage here.

MOVING TARGETS

We asked and we received. Asked, that is, for help in determining what happens when a state representative moves out of his legislative district and takes up residence in another part of the state or even another state. The question arose amid speculation that Roswell GOP State Rep. Dan Foley, recently defeated by Denis Kintigh in the June primary, might pull up roots and move to Rio Rancho. Here's some blogging from two state reps who e-mailed First, ABQ GOP Rep. Janice Arnold Jones, a member of the House Voters and Elections Committee.

Our laws on living in the district are "flexible" to say the least. Specifically, the legislator must be registered in their district when they seek office. As long as they claim an intent to return, no problem. Near as I can tell there is no requirement to live in your district once elected...If Dan moved to Rio Rancho, I would argue that there is an ethical and moral requirement, but that is not the law. Incidentally, there are several legislators currently serving who do not live in their districts-- Democrats and Republicans. They may have homes or offices in their districts but they do not live there. Hmmmm.

But ABQ Dem State Rep. Antonio "Moe" Maestas, an attorney, interprets the law differently, saying if a state rep moves out of his district, he risks losing his seat.

If a state rep moves outside the boundaries of the district the rep is “deemed to have resigned.” The trouble with the statute is it doesn’t state who “deems” it?...Does the speaker of the House announce that someone has been “deemed” to have resigned? If Foley moved to Rio Rancho, I’m sure he would formally resign.

One e-mailer said the county commission (s) in the affected district could declare a resignation in effect when a lawmaker moved out of this district. They would then act to fill the vacancy. I don't, however, recall a commission doing so without the lawmaker announcing his resignation.

What I'm now wondering is which lawmakers Janice is referring to when she says some current legislators own homes or have offices in their districts, but don't live there. That info could make for some lively campaigning.

THE MONTOYA FILES

Still more reaction to our reminisces of that 1976 campaign trip we took with US Senator Joe Montoya and AP writer Bill Feather. Former State Land Commissioner Jim Baca comes with a cool photo from 1936. It pictures Montoya on the left; Sisto Leyba in the center and Fermin Baca, Jim Baca's father, on the right. (Click to enlarge.)

The trio is posing on the steps of the US Capitol. At the time, they were all going to school in Washington, under the auspices of US Senator Dennis Chavez. (How about those "summer white" suits?)

When this photo was snapped, Montoya was 21 years old and a law student at Georgetown University, Chavez's alma mater. He was also elected to the NM House in '36, becoming the youngest state rep in state history. In '38, Montoya graduated from law school and was also re-elected to the state House. Pretty impressive.

In the final analysis, history was not too kind to Joe Montoya, but he certainly made his share of it.

I'm Joe Monahan, reporting to you from Albuquerque, NM.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Among the familiar political names selected to be a New Mexico delegate to the GOP national convention in Minnesota September 1 is Paige McKenzie. She made headlines in a dramatic and unfortunate way when she was severely beaten with a tire iron October 4, 2006 by a still unknown attacker. At the time McKenzie was the spokeswoman for John Dendahl's GOP governor campaign. McKenzie had been driving home when her tire went flat. She pulled over to look at it, and drove into a bank parking lot in Bernalillo. Her attacker saw her pull over to look at the tire.

State GOP spokesman and acting executive director Scott Darnell says, "Paige still faces some challenges with regard to her health, but is doing much better. She’s not working on any campaigns..." He adds that McKenzie is doing private PR work.

FOLEY ON THE MOVE?

The Alligators have been besides themselves, insisting that ousted Roswell State Rep. Dan Foley is about to leave Roswell and relocate to Rio Rancho. They were so insistent that we called Foley. He told us there was no impending move planned by his family, but "something could come up." But he insisted that for now he is staying put. But the Gators are not pacified. They persist in saying the move is in the making and even that Foley will try to engineer a political comeback when he pulls up Roswell roots. They are even speculating on what office he might seek.

Foley was truly one of the most controversial state representatives in state history. Even now that he is on his way out, his statements are the subject of intense scrutiny. As far as a political comeback, after that mug shot of Foley that was on statewide TV during the primary, any comeback will be, to say the least, challenging. Just for kicks, I need to look into what happens if a state rep moves out of his district and into another in the state. Does he have to resign his seat which means there would be an appointment? If you know the answer, e-mail it in.

AT THE GOP
Chairman Weh
State GOP Chair Allen Weh says there will be no permanent GOP executive director named until after the November election. We recently broke the story of Adam Feldman's departure from the job. Weh says Feldman is doing field work for the party, but is not saying why Feldman is out. Scott Darnell, 23, the communications director, is now acting ED, but he leaves for Harvard in a month. Weh will then have to name another ED to serve through the november election.

Speculators wonder if the emergence of former ED Marta Kramer as John McCain's NM campaign coordinator has anything to do with the ouster of Feldman and whether one of her allies will be placed in the ED slot once Darnell leaves. We're wondering, too.

Kramer was targeted by foes of Weh who ran a candidate against him last year for state chairman, but Weh prevailed. However, before the election, Kramer, to the delight of Weh's opposition, was gone from GOP headquarters. Weh indicated to me at the time that he had given Kramer the push, without explicitly stating that was the case. Kramer denied she was fired and was livid at the report here. Kramer's departure before the chair vote was seen as strengthening Weh's re-election hand.

WORKING THE FOURTH

The Fourth may be a holiday but some politicos will still be working. The Obama NM campaign is setting up shop at various Fourth of July celebrations as they continue to register new voters. The campaign says it will have reps at public celebrations in ABQ, Las Cruces and Farmington.

PHOTO OP

We haven't seen much of NM first lady Barbara Richardson since Big Bill ended his prez campaign earlier this year. But here she is back on the trail discussing domestic violence with Barack Obama during his June ABQ visit. By the way, the AP style book says the term "first lady" is not a "formal title" and therefore, it is not to be capitalized. The book is silent on the title, "Mrs. Big Bill." We think that is capitalized.

E-mail it in--the news, comments and political gossip. And Happy Fourth of July.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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There is a major change in the Obama campaign. The boldness is gone, replaced by cautious treading. We picked up on it when we remarked on his ABQ visit last month. The Huffington Post's Arianna Huffington is first up with the warning flags for the Obamites, saying the move "to the center" could spell trouble.

"Watering down that brand is the political equivalent of New Coke. Call it Obama Zero."

Obama's repositioning to the center is politics as usual and is often advised as the best way to win a general election. Huffington's view is that such moves have made past Dem nominees Gore and Kerry appear less than stalwart and cost them the election. She fears the same fate for Obama.

It is a story line worth watching. Here in NM, it appears that among the congressional contenders a successful Obama candidacy would be most important to ABQ hopeful Martin Heinrich. The former city councilor could use some lengthy Obama coattails to ride if he is to overcome Republican Darren White.

It's the slow summer season that's bringing on some of the the second-guessing of Obama because McCain is going through the same thing. And here's a thoughtful rebuttal to Arianna's column.

Meanwhile, blog reader Fred Sisneros thinks another recent strategic move by Obama may impact the congressional races here.

Obama opting out of publicly financing his campaign could play a part in New Mexico races. I still think the Republican candidates in ABQ and the southern district have the advantage, but the Obama "50 state strategy" will play a part. His voter registration drives will be different than ACORN's. This guy means to win and he just might have coattails.

One thing we are not hearing much about at this stage is the impact of race on the NM prez election. Will race play an important role among east side Anglos? What of the talk of resistance toward Obama in the Spanish northern counties? Early polls are entertaining, but the answers to these questions will have to wait until the fall when the public is fully engaged.

HANG ON TIGHT

Dem US Senate nominee Tom Udall and northern US House hopeful Ben Ray Lujan, Jr. can be expected to hold tightly to each other as they head into the fall campaign. They will today in Santa Fe by appearing at the opening of a new Santa Fe office for the state Democratic Party at 730 St. Michael's Drive. Udall needs Hispanic support and Lujan could use Udall's muscle with Anglos in the district who did not warm to him during the primary. Still, Lujan, who is a solid frontrunner in his race, is key. The pressure is on him to energize northern Hispanics to help himself, Udall and Obama in an area where Dems need big numbers.

IT WAS A GOOD JOB

You never know who you'll run into on the plane. NM lobbyist Scott Scanland passes this one along:

I'm sitting on a Southwest jet yesterday when former US Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor gets on the flight and sits in the row behind us. When the flight lands, I help her take her bag down from the overhead storage. After this, I thank her for her service. She politely accepts my thanks and leans in to me and says: "It was a pretty good job.

BOB'S BULLET TRAIN

Another top NM lobbyist, former State Senator Bob McBride, writes in about the "bullet train" proposed by then-Governor Toney Anaya in the 80's and which we blogged about recently. Bob swears the following is true:

Not to diminish Toney Anaya's proposal for a Santa Fe to Albuquerque train, but the true visionary was Odis Echols. In the early 70's as a state senator from Curry county he introduced legislation to build a train. I know, because I co-signed the bill. It failed. It was going to be called Santa Fe -Albuquerque Rapid Transit or "SFART."

No, we don't make it up.

HANGIN' WITH LITTLE JOE--PART III

A lot of political veterans wanted to help us solve the mystery of what Las Cruces hotel we were at in 1976 when we were hanging with US Senator Joe Montoya. He was campaigning for re-election and we were traveling with him and legendary AP correspondent Bill Feather whose birthday (his 48th, not 50th) we celebrated in Montoya's room with beverages appropriate to the era. We recalled it was the Hilton, but that wasn't built until '86. Politicos who were on the circuit in those days seem to have nailed it down. Here's the take from one who requested anonymity.

If it was 1976 in Las Cruces a lot of Dems and hangers-on would gather at Buddy Ritter's Holiday Inn. It was pretty new and probably the classiest Holiday Inn around. The place had a nice adobe feel to it and stiff Margaritas...Another good D watering hole was My Brother's Place downtown, but it didn't have a hotel nearby except the old Amador that had been turned into a bank by then..The Rs pretty much drank in private except on Lincoln's birthday.

Gotta luv that line about the R's only coming out on Lincoln's Birthday. Of course, in those days in Las Cruces they were even more outnumbered than today. Maybe they felt safer indoors. As for Buddy Ritter, he now owns the famous Double Eagle restaurant in Old Mesilla.

The Big Wheel turns and the parade moves on, but the footprints of Montoya, Feather and the like are seen and remembered in the never-ending book of La Politica.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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"If it was a boxing match, I would score June 10 to 9 for Udall." So said a Steve Pearce sympathizer of the first month of the first fight for an open New Mexico US Senate seat since 1972. He's probably got it about right. Dem nominee Tom Udall scored points for pulling a mild surprise and staying up on television following the June 3 primary. He is not expected to come down before Election Day. The ads have been generally well-received, Some addressed Udall's weaknesses with conservative southern and east side voters. However, Pearce scores points because Udall stepped in it when he refused to talk to the press about his latest vote on funding Los Alamos Labs. Pearce also scored when the general public, outraged by rocketing gas prices, began to be more supportive of oil drilling on lands enviros want off limits.

Now we are in July and the question is how long will Pearce let Udall have the TV airwaves to himself? Will the GOP contender launch ads or wait for a more traditional start in August? Will the conservative congressman try to move a bit to the political center? And whatever he decides, how long can he afford to wait?

RIVER CITY REVIEW

In the battle for the open ABQ congressional seat featuring Dem Martin Heinrich and Republican Darren White, there was hardly a fight to score in June. Both sides were busy raising money. White had a fundraiser featuring President Bush that took in about $300,000 and another one Sunday sponsored by outgoing Rep. Heather Wilson. Heinrich has been doing the same, with an emphasis on raising funds via the Net.

The onus is on Heinrich to make the first move because White's name ID is so high. The faster he can raise the funds, the faster he will start his paid media, but don't expect either Heinrich or White to repeat Heather Wilson's '06 campaign when she started TV ads in mid-July.

When they do get started, White and Heinrich will each have a now familiar problem to address. For Martin, it is the perception that he is too liberal for the district. For White, it's his attempt to position himself in the middle when his past and, perhaps his gut, place him on the right.

SOUTH TO THE BORDER

Down south, there was some preliminary skirmishing in the first general election campaign month, with Dem Harry Teague and Republican Ed Tinsley each firing volleys shortly after the primary, but then quieting their guns. Teague hammered Tinsley over having a second home in Santa Fe and implying that he was a carpetbagger. Tinsley fired an early shot at Teague "that he can't change his spots like a leopard" and try to become an overnight conservative.

Because Teague did not have an overpowering primary victory, he still has much work to to do to change longstanding voting patterns that favor the Republican. He will have to take the fight to Tinsley, but he has to brush up on the skills necessary to do so. Tinsley has to connect better in the district. While he has a ranch there, he remains vulnerable to the carpetbagger attack that derailed him in the GOP primary in 2002.

ARGUMENT FOR DEMS?

It is probably not an issue Martin Heinrich or Harry Teague can get a lot of mileage with because it is peripheral to voters' main concerns, but if either is elected they will be in the majority in the US House. That could mean NM might not suffer as much from the power we are losing with the retirement of Senator Domenici and the three House seats going to freshmen.

Dems took over the House in 2006 and are expected to add to their majority this year. If history is a guide, it could be many years before the R's are back in the majority. This is probably a side issue for most voters, but if White and Tinsley are elected, it could mean a lot of hours doing crossword puzzles. Being in the minority in the House is much worse than in the Senate where the rules let the minority in on the action.

BLOCK ON THE BLOG

Jerome Block Sr., chiming in on our Monday blog about the past legal troubles of his son Jerome, the Dem nominee for the northern Public Regulation Commission seat, thinks we went over the line with one of our lines. We wrote: "Block's dad, Jerome Sr., is himself a former PRC member who has had his share of public controversy. Is it time for a father-son talk on how to come clean and move forward? Jerome Sr. responded:

"Joe: Please tell me what public controversy you are talking about, or are you another one who titillates through innuendo?"

We didn't quite phrase this right, and Jerome Sr. has a point. He had plenty of "public controversy" dealing with the complex issues before the PRC and handling the press, but he did not have the personal legal issues as Jerome Jr. does. Our main point stands. Jerome Jr. needs to be more forthcoming before he embarks on a career in public service or his past is going to shadow him.

WIN SOME, LOSE SOME
Gov. Bill
An electric car company that said it would open a manufacturing plant employing 400 on ABQ's west side ditched New Mexico Monday in favor of California. That was a blow to Big Bill who often cited Tesla Motors as one of his economic success stories. But now the bragging rights belong to California Guv Schwarzenegger who keeps Tesla in his state. No hard feelings, Bill.

The Guv did get to announce in June the opening of a Rio Rancho call center for Hewlett Packard, but the loss of Tesla is an example of the competitive and choppy economic waters we are in and the dangers posed to any politician wading into them.

If the current gloom and doom is just too much, why not go to the movies and forget about it all? If you do, there's a good chance the flick you take in will have a New Mexico connection. Hollywood's Variety recently devoted exhaustive coverage to our state's largely successful efforts to attract the film industry. It seems we truly are the land of make-believe, but if you follow politics around here you already knew that.

E-mail your news, comments and campaign news, and thanks for stopping by.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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