Dem Reps. Thomas, Rodefer & Giannini
State GOP operatives have their chalkboards out and are toting up which Democratic House seats are most vulnerable this election cycle. The Dems are in total control of the state House--45 D's to 25 R's--after picking up some seats in the 2008 Obama landslide. The R's think there will be a rubber band effect, with some districts that should never have gone D coming back to them in November.

The Dem seats insider R's think are most likely to flip are Karen Giannini's ABQ NE Heights seat and that of Rep. Ben Rodefer on the West side. But it gets dicier after that.

For example, Rep. Jack Thomas is in a swing Rio Rancho area seat, but he is a former Sandoval County Commissioner with good name ID. R's point out he only won by 278 votes in '08 and that his opponent is likely to be a the widow of a law enforcement officer who was shot and killed in the line of duty.

The Bill O'Neill ABQ NE Heights House seat is another on the R target list, but it won't be easy. Same for the Las Cruces area seats of Reps Jeff Steinborn and Nate Cote. There will need to be a big R trend to pick all of them off.

South of ABQ the R's will target Rep. Andrew Barreras. Here's the news on that:

Republican and small business owner, Tim Lardner declared his candidacy for New Mexico House of Representatives, District 7. Lardner is President of Belen based New Mexico Travertine Inc, and CEO of Santa Fe Marble, specializing in the mining and fabrication of stone and marble. Once elected, Lardner is committed to reigning in irresponsible government spending while working to cut taxes on our small businesses and families.

The conservative estimate is that the R's pick up at least two or three House seats this November. The 42 state Senate seats aren't up for election until 2012.

NOT A GOOD THING
Mayor Berry
The 8.9 percent ABQ metro January unemployment rate reported by the state Thursday may be the highest in the city's post WWII history in this government oriented economy.

The rate jumped from 8.5 percent in December and while there are seasonal factors involved, ABQ Mayor RJ Berry has to be increasingly concerned. He only took office December 1 and his honeymoon is still in progress, but soon these depressing stats will be owned by him as well as the political heartburn they represent.

We're now only a tenth of a percentage point away from the psychologically important 9 percent mark. What may keep us from getting there is that many folks simply stop looking for work or move away. It's not as if there's enough job creation to make up for the positions being lost.

And that's what is most worrisome. Where will the new jobs come from to replace the thousands being lost in the state's largest city? Many of them were in construction and
manufacturing. Then there's the hiring freeze at city hall and state government.

Berry's administration is already facing the prospect of the largest budget shortfall in the city's modern history--$54 million for the budget year that starts July 1. This jobless report tells us that economic activity is unlikely to pick up and generate the gross receipts taxes needed to put the city on a more even keel.

So while the new mayor mourns the continued losses in the job market, he faces the most unpleasant task of possibly adding to the hurt by being forced to layoff city workers, or at least cut their pay by making them stay home from work under a stern furlough plan.

There's nothing more that Berry would rather do than cut taxes for business and call it a jobs creation program. But he can't cut taxes because the city is broke. He and his economic planners need to think outside the box. Republican tax cutting orthodoxy is not going to do the trick. And while mayoral cheerleading for the economy is permitted, it will not substitute for real job creation.

We've suggested recently that ABQ might invest in being aggressive in attracting more federal interest in the city. Not that city fathers should throw the towel in on wooing major private employers, but it makes sense to recognize that the city's modern strength is owed to the large federal presence. As Martha Stewart would say--that's a good thing.

Berry is a Republican and the White House and the state's congressional delegation is all Democratic. That might make for some awkwardness, but when we saved Kirtland Air Force Base from being shuttered, we did it with Democrats and Republicans working together. Maybe it's time for that spirit again. This time to save our economic future.

OUR PREPRIMARY COVERAGE