Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Di Has Fallen Down And Can't Get Up; Stuck At 42--Again, Plus: Barela-Heinrich Match Still Watched, And: Is It 2012 Yet? Alligators Are Already Ready
As soon as Diane Denish starts to breathe the oxygen gets sucked out of the room. And so it was on Tuesday as the Dem Guv nominee was knocked to her knees just as she was trying to get up to mount a final assault. The Rasmussen Poll gave Republican Guv nominee Susana Martinez a ten point lead--52-42. The poll was conducted Sunday, refuting Dem contentions that Denish was starting to finally move off the 42 percent mark. Rasmussen says Susana is getting 90 percent of the R's and is blowing the doors off with independents.
42 is like unlucky 13 for Di. She has been stuck there for months. Martinez is now at 50 in her own poll and 52 in Rasmussen. The Journal reports their final findings Sunday.
The polls get more accurate as you get closer to Election Day, so unless there is a major misstep by Susana she should be your next governor.
GETTING IN ON IT
We had blogged Monday that Denish might not yet have flat-lined. Former ABQ GOP State Rep. Rory Ogle gets in on the analysis action and opines that the Martinez 10 point Rasmussen lead is indeed a flat-lining:
Martinez again moves to a 10 point lead with likely voters polling 52% in the second straight survey this month. Denish draws 42%. Only 2% would like a different set of candidates and 4% are undecided.
Given that election day is only six days away I would say that Denish has both hit the ceiling and flat-lined as her number seems to be remaining steady...My gut feeling is unless there is some kind of really big misstep on the part of Susana this race is over given all of the early voting.
We remember gut feelings, Rory. We used to have at least one a day. Now we get ten polls a day.
When the Tuesday blog went to press we noted that Martinez was still going negative, despite her polling lead. She has mixed in a mostly positive closing spot with the negative.
ON THE TRAIL
Where the candidates were on Tuesday and election analysis on KOB-TV. And we talk about the polls with KRQE-TV.
LAS CRUCES BOUND
It will indeed be Las Cruces where Martinez makes what now appears will be a victory speech next Tuesday night. We blogged earlier that ABQ might be bypassed on the big night, the first time that has happened in modern memory. But Cruces is where the candidate feels most comfortable. We expect her to spend good deal of time there even after being elected. Her father and sister live there.
SUSANA AND CNN
The news network hooked up with Martinez Monday in Alamogordo. An excerpt:
Though Sarah Palin's endorsement helped Martinez lock up the nomination the candidate now seems to be seeking distance telling CNN, "You know Sarah Palin's endorsement was in the primary. We were pleased to have it. We were pleased to have everyone else's endorsement." Asked if she would support Palin for President she punts saying "you know I am not focused on Sarah Palin at this point.
Martinez does lunch with another GOP presidential hopeful today. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty will be at the ABQ Country Club for a VIP lunch that is going for $2,000 a couple. The cheap seats are $500 a couple and $300 a person. One of the hosts is ubiquitous Republican businessman Sherman McCorkle who served on ABQ Mayor Berry's transition team and is a good bet to be tapped for a similar role should Martinez win Tuesday night.
Martinez will also hold a free ABQ rally with possible 2012 GOP Prez candidate Pawlenty. That will be this morning at 10:30 at Martinez campaign headquarters at 5500 San Mateo NE.
Denish continues her barnstorming. She'll be in Bernalillo and Santa Rosa today. She'll also have an event with Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine, Senator Tom Udall, Rep. Heinrich and NM Dem Party Chairman Javier Gonzales. They will be at Matteo's Restaurant, 6301 South Coors, from 4:00 PM - 5:00 PM
HEINRICH VS. BARELA
Will Jon Barela be the November surprise? His campaign comes with an internal poll that says he has pulled ahead of Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich by two points among 400 likely voters. They have it 49-47 in the survey done Sunday and Monday. More details here.
Third party money is flooding into ABQ TV stations against Heinrich. The spots are not that well-produced, but they keep the heat on.
We continue to rank the ABQ race as lean Dem, with Heinrich polling well in the last ABQ Journal survey in early October 48 to 41--and insiders saying Heinrich's own internal numbers showing him six points ahead. (Of course, all internal polling is to be treated with a healthy dose of scepticism). There is that nagging concern about who is voting. The Barela poll asserts among high interest voters Barela is clocking Heinrich 52 to 46. They also point out that Republican Martinez leads Denish by nine points--53 to 44--in the ABQ congressional district.
Like Dems, Republicans appear to be getting worried now about their turnout numbers. Many R's have voted early but they need to keep coming to the polls if they are going to put candidates like Barela over the top.
No incumbent anywhere can take anything for granted. Democrats may want to turn away, but R's are going to relish this news from The Hill:
Republicans are headed for a blowout election win that seems certain to seize more than enough seats to knock out the Democrats and take control of the House.
The Hill 2010 Midterm Election poll, surveying nearly 17,000 likely voters in 42 toss-up districts over four weeks, points to a massive Republican wave that, barring an extraordinary turnaround, will deliver crushing nationwide defeats for President Obama’s party.
Okay, Dems you can come back to the blog...
MULLINS VS. WILSON?
Those wily Alligators are already looking forward to 2012. (Don't they have enough to keep them busy right here in 2010)? Apparently not as they are coming away impressed with the performance of 40 year old Republican underdog northern congressional candidate Tom Mullins.
Mullins sent a scare up the spine of Dem US Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, but Ben Ray now seems to have matters in hand and should secure the win Tuesday night with no major problems. (How much he wins by remains an issue).
So where does that leave Mullins who is the most conservative GOP candidate on the scene this year? This fella even makes Republican Steve Pearce look soft. Remember it was Pearce who took the US Senate nomination from former ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson by labeling her too moderate in 2008. He went on to lose to Dem Tom Udall.
Heather, who is making noise about another Senate run in 2012 when Dem Senator Jeff Bingaman is expected to seek re-election, could find that Mullins or a candidate like him will present as formidable a hurdle as Pearce did. Besides, Mullins with his balding pate and conservative views, looks like a younger version of Pearce.
Mullins is concentrating on his congressional run today, but his brand of unapologetic conservatism matches up nicely with much of today's GOP (and Tea Party). If his US House campaign has done anything it has positioned the Farmington petroleum engineer for another contest.
Could we see Mullins run in the 2012 GOP Senate primary and go for the heart and soul of the GOP while Heather also runs and is again labeled as "too moderate" by likely primary voters? We could. And that's why those Alligators are already looking forward to 2012.
GENERATIONS OF LA POLITICA
Cargo & Keller
Former GOP Governor Dave Cargo ('67-70) talks politics in this photo with the new generation at Barelas Coffeehouse. Cargo is now 81 while ABQ Dem State Senator Tim Keller turns 33 in November. Cargo had a reputation for forming alliances with Hispanic Democrats. Keller was once a Republican who has also shown signs of pragmatism. Keller's business background has propelled him into the center of discussions over the state's budget crisis. Cargo's charisma and intellectual prowess have kept him in the game even as his contemporaries hug their rockers.
NO TO D
We've been batting around that $155 million state bond for higher education this week, especially after we said we would be voting no. Reader Brad Hill, who describes himself as a NM based construction industry professional, weighs in:
Joe--Until the Regents at New Mexico’s educational institutions quit excluding New Mexico construction and design firms from their projects, I don’t see why NM voters should support them.
THE HOUSING BEAT
In a metro area economy experiencing record high unemployment and home foreclosures, the home prices still seem too high:
In the Albuquerque metro area, pending sales for detached single-family homes in September dropped 28.82 percent from the previous year and are down 14.45 percent from August 2010, according to data from the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors.
The median sale price for single-family detached home sales in September saw an increase of 1.72 percent in September to $183,000, when compared to the previous year, the group said.
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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
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