Chances are growing that the 2010 NM US Senate race could be a bust. Fresh polling shows Jeff Bingaman garnering a 56% approval rating, potential Republican challenger Heather Wilson trailing far behind in a theoretical match-up with him and no other heavyweight R's poised to take on Bingaman who is expected to announce by the end of March that he will seek a sixth term.

The PPP poll, conducted among 545 state voters, shows Bingaman defeating Wilson in a head-to-head match by a healthy 19 points. It's Jeff 56% and Heather 37%. He landslides her by 28 points among crucial independent voters. Those are not the kind of numbers that are going to encourage the former five term ABQ GOP congresswoman to fire up a multi-million dollar campaign.

It's true that it is still quite early, but both Bingaman and Wilson are very well-known, giving this first neutral survey of the '12 cylce more import than it normally might have. What could Wilson, who has said she is considering a Senate run, do to change opinions about Bingaman, now the state's senior senator and chairman of the energy committee? She would seem to need the environment to start drifting back to that of 2010.

We've talked about the changing mood of the electorate since the anger drenched 2010 balloting and these numbers track that trend. Bingaman, 67, bottomed out at 50% approval in the polls last fall and now has grown back to 56%. PPP says that makes him more popular in his home state than all but four of 77 of his Senate colleagues the firm has polled.

The margin of error in the survey is plus or minus 4.2 percent. It was taken mostly over this past weekend (Feb, 4-6).

Wilson appeared to be trying to get back in the game by becoming chairwoman of Governor Martinez's transition team. She completed that task with mixed to good reviews. It appears it did little to rehab her image which has taken a hit since she ran for and lost the 2008 GOP US Senate primary against Steve Pearce. Heather's unfavorable rating is 45% and her favorable 39%. She even loses to ABQ Dem Congressman Martin Heinrich in a theoretical match-up for the Senate seat--50% to 39%.

If Wilson, 50, bypasses the contest, which now seems more likely, it will be interesting to see what NM GOP Chairman Monty Newman and company do for a candidate. Will they look for a heavy or go with token opposition? Craig Sowards of Las Cruces is an announced GOP candidate, but PPP did not even do a match-up featuring him against Bingaman. He is not seen as a top-tier contender. Another GOP candidate is unknown Bill English of Alamogordo.

The PPP pollsters did put the name of former NM GOP Governor Gary Johnson up against Bingaman. Gary fared much better than Heather with Jeff beating him 51% to 40%. But a close friend and adviser of Gary's told me after the poll was released he has zero interest in running for the Senate and is still concentrating on a possible 2012 GOP presidential run. Also, his drug legalization stance could make winning a GOP Senate primary problematic.

HEINRICH, LUJAN & PEARCE

While Heinrich scores well in a theoretical run against Wilson, look at this--opinion of him is not all that high. 39% have a favorable opinion of Heinrich while 34% don't. If the poll has it right, this is a bit of a bright spot for the GOP. They came close to bumping him off last November, but Heinrich manged a second term win. This time around ABQ GOP City Councilor Dan Lewis is already off and running. He's formed an exploratory committee and begun raising money.