Mayor Berry

Before we head out for the holiday weekend, let's make some news...

It's the first scientific poll of the 2013 ABQ mayoral race and it shows incumbent GOP Mayor Richard Berry with a commanding lead over Democrat Pete Dinelli. Berry commands 56% support, Dinelli gets 19% and Republican Paul Heh garners 4%. Undecided comes in at 21%.

The survey was conducted Monday and Tuesday of  this week by automatic telephone calls supervised by consultant Bruce Donisthorpe of BWD Global who has conducted numerous and very accurate polls for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan since 2008. This time out he surveyed 423 likely ABQ voters. The margin of error is 4.7%.

The most important number in the survey is Berry's because he is a known quantity. Dinelli has yet to start  his TV advertising, but when he does this survey shows he will have his work cut out for him. If Berry gets 50% or more of the vote on October 8, he will be re-elected to another four year term. If Dinelli can hold him below that threshold, there would be a run-off election November 19.

Donisthorpe said of the survey:

It shows how important it is for Dinelli to get on TV. He is not known to the public. For Berry, what you see is what you get. The 56 percent support is probably his top line number, coming as it does against a backdrop in which he has not been subjected to strong attacks. His job will be to keep himself above that 50% mark as Dinelli begins his efforts to bring him down.

The ABQ mayor's race is playing out amid a weak economy and a troubled ABQ police department. Dinelli has those issues and more in his toolbox to begin deconstructing Berry. But it's clear from our poll that the incumbent is not getting blamed by the public for those issues--at least not yet.

THE POLLING MEMO

Here is Donisthrope's complete polling memo:

METHODOLOGY

Pete Dinelli

Automated phone dialing survey using established demographic methodological standards to 423 likely voting Democratic, Republican and Independent registered households with known voting history in general elections from throughout the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico. Surveys were conducted using this method on August 26 and 27, 2013, between 6 pm and 9 pm.

As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted or adjusted at the top-line to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, region, and other established demographic standards and variables. The margin of sampling error for the surveys conducted for this questions is 4.7% with a 95% level of confidence for the interviews conducted in this survey.

THE QUESTION

There are three candidates for Mayor in this fall’s city election. If the race was held today and the candidates were R.J. Berry, Pete Dinelli and Paul Heh, for which candidate would you support?

BERRY---56%
DINELLI---19%
HEH--- 4%
UNDECIDED---21%

Margin of Error: 4.7%

423 Likely Voters, City of Albuquerque

Bruce Donisthorpe has been polling professionally since 2006. He conducted polls for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan in the 2008, 2010 and 2012 campaigns. He conducted a survey on Mayor Berry’s public approval rating last year. He was active in polling the city of Albuquerque elections in 2009, in which he accurately forecasted Berry’s mayoral win.

That's it for now. Back here next week. Thanks for tuning in.

Reporting to you from midtown Manhattan in New York City, I'm Joe Monahan.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2013. Not for reproduction without permission of the author